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Hall of Merit: Joss, Koufax and Dean

I think a separate thread to discuss the likes of Addie Joss, Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean is appropriate.

These guys are in a family unto themselves. I suppose if Pedro Martinez were to retire tomorrow, he’d be in the group too, though he’s a notch above those three.

These guys were amazing pitchers, who for one reason or another only had 6-8 years of greatness.

Where should we rank them? I was surprised at how little support Joss received in his first go-round. I didn’t vote for him either, but I think I could easily be convinced to, I’m waiting for my revised Pennants Added numbers before I vote for Joss. Players like Hughie Jennings and Bob Caruthers received much more support, but I don’t see them as being any better than Joss. How can one justify keeping Joss of the ballot, but voting for Dean or Koufax? I’m not saying you can’t, but it’s not immediately obvious, and I have to think Koufax and probably Dean will do much better than Joss did.

You don’t rack up a 142 ERA+ (especially in a low ERA era, where it’s tougher to have an extreme ERA+) over 2300 IP without being a great pitcher. Sure he didn’t pitch an incredible amount of innings every year (in the context of his time), but neither does Pedro, and Koufax was only in the top 10 in the NL 4 times, though he did lead the league twice. Dean was a horse during his 6 year run.

I think these three pitchers are probably the most fascinating candidates we’ll see.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 22, 2003 at 09:41 PM | 0 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: 2004 Hall of Fame ballot discussion

Some of you asked for a thread to discuss the 2004 ballot for the Hall of Fame, while we’re on vacation. Here you go!

It was suggested to run a mock election using our system. If we do so, we shouldn’t just have players on the ballot as eligible. In keeping with our practice, we should consider ALL players not in the Hall of Fame today. Putting together a 15-player ballot with that system would be great.

To make sure no one is missed, we should nominate players for the ballot. I’d immediately nominate the HoMers that aren’t in the Hall of Fame: Ross Barnes, Bill Dahlen, Jack Glasscock, George Gore, Paul Hines, Cal McVey, Hardy Richardson, Joe Start, Ezra Sutton and Deacon White.

I’d also nominate players that have been erased from BBWAA eligibility guys like Bobby Grich, Craig Nettles, Lou Whitaker, Joe Torre, Bill Freehan, Ron Santo and Ron Guidry, to name a few. A composite ballot of these players, and others that I’m not remembering off the top of my head would be fascinating.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 22, 2003 at 09:15 PM | 40 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: 1917 Ballot Discussion

Cy Young and Fred Clarke head the new eligibles.

This election won’t start until January 5, so take your time discussing.

Let me know if you’d like to open any other threads for discussion over the holidays, and a Happy Holidays to all of you too!

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 22, 2003 at 08:41 PM | 125 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: 1916 Ballot

Let the games begin! Interesting ballot once again . . . I hope to update pennants added this week, but I can’t promise anything, busy time of year. I also am not sure if I should just get the thing up to date with adjusting for the FRAA/FRAR issue, so they are updated, and worry about doing the fielding adjustment when I have more time . . .

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 15, 2003 at 02:22 PM | 90 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: 1915 Results - Davis, Dahlen Elected

For the first time since 1903 (Cap Anson and Roger Connor), two first-time eligibles were elected to the Hall of Merit, as George Davis and Bill Dahlen, two turn of the century shortstops breezed to election. Davis was named first on 33 of 44 ballots (second on 8 others), Dahlen was named first on 5 ballots and second on 27.

Harry Stovey held his place as the top returning player and finished 3rd. Joe Kelley was the second runner-up again. Jimmy Collins slipped past Charlie Bennett for 5th and Bennett dropped to 6th.

Sam Thompson finished 7th. Joe McGinnity passed Hugh Duffy for 8th and Duffy finished 9th. Frank Grant rounded out the top 10.

Rk   LY  Player             Pts Bal    1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 1  n/e  George Davis      1011  43   33  8  1  1                                 
 2  n/e  Bill Dahlen        939  44    5 27  3  5  2  1        1                  
 3    2  Harry Stovey       601  41       2 10  5  5  2  1  3  3  2  2  3  1  2   
 4    3  Joe Kelley         580  42          6  4  3  6  5  5  1  6  2  1  3      
 5    5  Jimmy Collins      536  39       2     4  5  5  4  6  6  1  2  1  1  1  1
 6    4  Charlie Bennett    523  34    1  1  8  8  4     4     3     1     2  2   
 7    6  Sam Thompson       415  30    2     3  4  3  3  1  3     4  2  1  1     3
 8    8  Joe McGinnity      389  28    2  1  3  1  4  1  3  3  2     1  2  1  3  1
 9    7  Hugh Duffy         385  34          1     3  3  4  4  2  1  4  4  2  3  3
10    9  Frank Grant        356  29       1     1  1  8     4  2  2  1  5     3  1
11   10  Jimmy Ryan         349  29             1  2  1  5  5  5  1  3  4     1  1
12   13  George Van Haltren 313  28             2     3  2  3  2  3  4  3  2  3  1
13   11  Lip Pike           293  21       1  2  4  2  2  1  2     3  1     1  1  1
14   16  Bob Caruthers      278  23       1  1  2  2  1  1  1  2  3  2  1  3  1  2
15   12  Jake Beckley       259  23          1     2     5     2  3  4  1  1  1  3
16   14  Hughie Jennings    235  21          3  1     1        3  5  1  1     3  3
17   15  Dickey Pearce      221  18                3  1  3  1  3  3  1  1  1  1   
18   19  Pete Browning      197  17    1           1  1  2  1  1  2  2  3     2  1
19   17  Clark Griffith     151  15                1  1        3  1  1  3  2  2  1
20   20  Jim McCormick      111  11                   1  1  1     1  1  1  4  1   
21   18  Cupid Childs       109  12                1     1  1  1           1  4  3
22   22  Mickey Welch       100  10.5        1  1                 1  1     2  1  3.5
23   21  Mike Tiernan        82   9                      1     1     1  1  3  1  1
24   23  Charley Jones       65   8                               1  2     1  2  2
25   27  John McGraw         64   7                   2                    1  2  2
26   25  Fielder Jones       58   7                                     4  2     1
27   26  Ed Williamson       48   7                                        2  2  3
28   24  Lave Cross          44   5                                  1  2  2      
29   30  Tony Mullane        38   5                                  1     2     2
30   32  Harry Wright        32   3                         1        1  1         
31   28  Mike Griffin        30   3                               1  1  1         
32   29  Herman Long         27   3.5                                1     1     1.5
33   33  Tip O'Neill         24   2          1                                   1
34   31  Jim Whitney         15   1                   1                           
35  n/e  Jack Chesbro        14   2                                        1     1
36   35  Tommy Bond          12   1                            1                  
37   37T Levi Meyerle         8   1                                        1      
38T  39  Bobby Mathews        7   1                                           1   
38T n/e  Jesse Tannehill      7   1                                           1   
40   nr  Silver King          6   1                                              1
Dropped Out: Deacon McGuire (34), Fred Dunlap (36), Bill Hutchison (37T).

Sorry the results are late, and thanks to John Murphy, Ron Wargo, Patrick W and Eric C for sending along tallys. It’s an enormous help and much appreciated.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 10, 2003 at 08:24 PM | 10 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: 1916 Ballot Discussion

A very strong new class . . .

***1916 (December 21)—elect 1
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
333 96.3 1893 Willie Keeler-RF (1923)
291 82.8 1898 Elmer Flick-RF (1971)
272 57.7 1896 Cy Seymour-CF (1919)
240 67.8 1899 Rube Waddell-P (1914)
293 49.9 1898 Vic Willis-P (1947)
229 49.2 1899 Ginger Beaumont-CF (1956)
191 55.0 1899 Bill Bradley-3b (1954)
191 48.2 1902 Addie Joss-P (1911)
212 40.0 1899 Sam Leever-P (1953)
168 51.0 1901 Freddy Parent-SS (1972)
206 32.4 1899 Deacon Phillippe-P (1952)
146 39.3 1905 George Stone-LF (1945)
148 25.2 1902 Bob Ewing-P (1947)
126 22.5 1905 Orval Overall-P (1947)

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 08, 2003 at 09:52 PM | 186 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: Pitcher questions

At OCF’s request, and I’ll quote him . . .

At the moment, I only have questions, not answers. It might be nice to reactivate this thread as a place to collect comments. That, or we could create a new thread. What are my questions?

1. The circumstances for pitchers in the 1900’s were very different than those for pitchers in the 1880’s. How should we fairly compare McCormick, Welch, Caruthers and the other leftover pitchers from the 80’s to Griffith, McGinnity, Willis, Waddell, and the flood of others who will come behind them?

2. How does one rank the short-to-medium career pitchers with medium-to-high peaks of the 1900’s against each other? Snippets of systematic comparison have been coming out on ballot discussion threads - the more of that the better. And where will Eddie Plank fit into this?

Selected references from the 1915 Ballot Discussion thread:

Paul Wendt #95
Chris Cobb #106, #130, #148
Marc, #131

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 02, 2003 at 05:37 PM | 87 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: WARP3’s systematic flaws with 19th Century players

I’m going to do an overhaul on pennants added this week (hopefully, if you want to volunteer for some data entry, let me know!), including revising for the WARP 2003 numbers (I’ll leave the old ones up, for reference), and adjusting for the overrating of fielding by setting the replacement level too low.

One thing I noticed, that troubles me from the Prospectus glossary:

“FRAR
Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. That makes the value at each position variable over time. In the all-time adjustments, an average catcher is set to 39 runs above replacement per 162 games, first base to 12, second to 34, third to 26, short to 38, center field to 30, left and right to 20.” (emphasis mine)

This means that WARP3 systematically overrates 2B and underrates 3B from this time period. It also underrates 1B, who were at least as valuable as LF and RF defensively probably a little more valuable.

If I had the time, I could adjust this defensive spectrum, and re-rate the fielding component for each player, but that ain’t happening any time soon.

What I’d suggest is this: Using the same total of runs 39-38-34-30-26-20-20-12, I’d portion them this way, pre 1930:

39 C, 38 SS, 34 3B, 26 2B, 25 CF, 21 1B, 19 LF, 17 RF.

You could tweak that to your own specifications, but I think I’m being pretty conservative, you could easily make the case that 1B was equal in value to CF, though I won’t.

Doing that, you get an adjustment (using a 9.7 R/W converter) of:

3B: 34-26 = 8; 8/9.7 = +.82 W/season
2B: 26-34 = -8; -8/9.7 = -.82 W/season
CF: 25-30 = -5; -4/9.7 = -.52 W/season
1B: 21-12 = 9; 9/9.7 = +.93 W/season
LF: 19-20 = -1; 1/9.7 = -.10 W/season
RF: 17-20 = -3; -3/9.7 = -.31 W/season

I think that if you do this, you’re going to come out with rankings much more in line with the generally accepted historical rankings, especially with players like Jimmy Collins and Bid McPhee.

I’m not saying that WARP should be eliminated from the tool box when discussing 19th Century players. Just that it needs to be tweaked somewhat.

The mistake that Prospectus is making is that they think (implied by their formulas) that if Jimmy Collins were playing in 1990 he’d be a 3B. But most likely he’dve played 2B, because that’s where the more skilled fielder played after 1930. That’s the only way to explain how 3B outhit 2B after 1945, and 2B outhit 3B before 1920. From 1920-42 they were about even (who cares about 1943-45 :-)

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 02, 2003 at 03:53 PM | 61 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: 1915 Ballot

With six new eligibles reasonable candidates to at least get a vote, and two very strong new candidates on the board, this should be an interesting election. We’re also electing two candidates this year.

I’ll have the Pennants Added thread updated by tomorrow night, maybe tonight, depending on how things go today.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 01, 2003 at 04:18 PM | 119 comment(s)
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Hall of Merit: 1914 Results - Cal McVey elected

Cal McVey has been elected to the Hall of Merit. As will read on his plaque (courtesy of John Murphy), “The toughest and most consistent of Boston?s ?Big Four, he played on three championship teams for that city (1872, 1874-75), plus one more with Chicago during the inaugural NL season of 1876.”

Harry Stovey maintained his position among the returnees and outpolled newcomer Joe Kelley to finish 2nd. Kelley edged Charlie Bennett for 3rd. Jimmy Collins finished 5th in his first year of eligibility.

Sam Thompson moved ahead of Hugh Duffy to finish 6th. Joe McGinnity finished third among the newcomers and 8th overall. Frank Grant and Jimmy Ryan rounded out the top 10.

Thanks to John Murphy, Patrick W and Eric C for adding everything up and getting it to me. Sorry for the delayed posting.

RK  LY  Player             Pts Bal  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 1   2  Cal McVey          723  37 17  7  2  3  1  1  2        1  1  1        1
 2   3  Harry Stovey       627  40  5  7  4  2  5  1  3  3  1  2  2  1  1  3
 3 n/a  Joe Kelley         562  37  1  5  4  3  6  1  5  4  4  1  1  2  
 4   4  Charlie Bennett    557  33  5  9  4  3  1  2  2  1  1  1     2  1  1
 5 n/a  Jimmy Collins      483  33  2  1  1  5  6  2  3  8        2     1  1  1
 6   6  Sam Thompson       457  32  4     3  5     2  4  2  3  3     1  1     4
 7   5  Hugh Duffy         440  35        3  2  3  5  3  1  3  6  1  2  2  4
 8 n/a  Joe McGinnity      377  25  4  4  2  2  1  2  1              5  3     1
 9   7  Frank Grant        357  28     1  2  1  6  3  2        2  4  1  4  1  1
10   8  Jimmy Ryan         342  26     1  1  2  1  5  4  4     4        2     2
11  10  Lip Pike           306  21  1  2  3  2  3     1  1  2  2  2     1  1
12   9  Jake Beckley       290  24        2  1  1  2     2  6  1  4  3  1  1
13  11  George Van Haltren 282  24  1        1  2  2  2  1  1  3  4  2  2  1  2
14  12  Hughie Jennings    258  22  1  2  1  1           3  1  3  1  2  2  3  2
15  13  Dickey Pearce      238  19     1     3     3  1  1  1  3  2  1  2     1
16  19  Bob Caruthers      193  13     1  4  1  1  1        3     1     1
17  14  Clark Griffith     181  18           1        2  1  2  1  2  4     2  3
18  15  Cupid Childs       169  18        1        1  1     3  1     1     6  4
19  16  Pete Browning*     166  14        1        3     2  2     2  2  1  1
20  18  Jim McCormick      166  13        1        4  2  1  2        1  1     1
21  17  Mike Tiernan       123  12                 1     2     1  5     1  1  1
22  23  Mickey Welch        95   9        1  1           1     1  1     1     3
23  22  Charley Jones       89   9              1     1        1  1     3  2
24  20  Lave Cross          87  10                       1  1        3  2  1  2
25 n/a  Fielder Jones       83  10                          1  1  2  1     1  4
26  27  Ed Williamson       75  10                                1  1  2  4  2
27  24  John McGraw         73   7           1  1                 1     2  2
28  21  Mike Griffin        64   6                    1  1  2              1  1
29  28  Herman Long         53   7                                   2  2  1  2
30  25  Tony Mullane        49   5                          1  2        1  1
31  30  Jim Whitney         40   3        1     1                             1
32  26  Harry Wright        37   3              1              1  1
33  31  Tip O'Neill         35   3           1              1                 1
34  29  Deacon McGuire      22   3                                   1     1  1
35  33  Tommy Bond          20   2                       1                 1
36  32  Fred Dunlap         14   1                    1
37T 35T Bill Hutchison       9   1                                   1
37T 37  Levi Meyerle         9   1                                   1
39  35T Bobby Mathews        8   1                                      1
*won tie-breaker 12-11 on individual ballots.                      
Dropped Out:  Tom York (34), Noodles Hahn (38), Billy Nash (39T), Kid Gleason
(39T), Kip Selbach (41).
Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 30, 2003 at 05:27 PM | 10 comment(s)
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