Hall of Merit: Pitcher questions

At OCF’s request, and I’ll quote him . . .

At the moment, I only have questions, not answers. It might be nice to reactivate this thread as a place to collect comments. That, or we could create a new thread. What are my questions?

Selected references from the 1915 Ballot Discussion thread:

Paul Wendt #95
Chris Cobb #106, #130, #148
Marc, #131

Hall of Merit: WARP3’s systematic flaws with 19th Century players

I’m going to do an overhaul on pennants added this week (hopefully, if you want to volunteer for some data entry, let me know!), including revising for the WARP 2003 numbers (I’ll leave the old ones up, for reference), and adjusting for the overrating of fielding by setting the replacement level too low.

One thing I noticed, that troubles me from the Prospectus glossary:

“FRAR
Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. That makes the value at each position variable over time. In the all-time adjustments, an average catcher is set to 39 runs above replacement per 162 games, first base to 12, second to 34, third to 26, short to 38, center field to 30, left and right to 20.” (emphasis mine)

This means that WARP3 systematically overrates 2B and underrates 3B from this time period. It also underrates 1B, who were at least as valuable as LF and RF defensively probably a little more valuable.

If I had the time, I could adjust this defensive spectrum, and re-rate the fielding component for each player, but that ain’t happening any time soon.

What I’d suggest is this: Using the same total of runs 39-38-34-30-26-20-20-12, I’d portion them this way, pre 1930:

39 C, 38 SS, 34 3B, 26 2B, 25 CF, 21 1B, 19 LF, 17 RF.

You could tweak that to your own specifications, but I think I’m being pretty conservative, you could easily make the case that 1B was equal in value to CF, though I won’t.

Doing that, you get an adjustment (using a 9.7 R/W converter) of:

3B: 34-26 = 8; 8/9.7 = +.82 W/season
2B: 26-34 = -8; -8/9.7 = -.82 W/season
CF: 25-30 = -5; -4/9.7 = -.52 W/season
1B: 21-12 = 9; 9/9.7 = +.93 W/season
LF: 19-20 = -1; 1/9.7 = -.10 W/season
RF: 17-20 = -3; -3/9.7 = -.31 W/season

I think that if you do this, you’re going to come out with rankings much more in line with the generally accepted historical rankings, especially with players like Jimmy Collins and Bid McPhee.

I’m not saying that WARP should be eliminated from the tool box when discussing 19th Century players. Just that it needs to be tweaked somewhat.

The mistake that Prospectus is making is that they think (implied by their formulas) that if Jimmy Collins were playing in 1990 he’d be a 3B. But most likely he’dve played 2B, because that’s where the more skilled fielder played after 1930. That’s the only way to explain how 3B outhit 2B after 1945, and 2B outhit 3B before 1920. From 1920-42 they were about even (who cares about 1943-45 :-)

Hall of Merit: 1915 Ballot

With six new eligibles reasonable candidates to at least get a vote, and two very strong new candidates on the board, this should be an interesting election. We’re also electing two candidates this year.

I’ll have the Pennants Added thread updated by tomorrow night, maybe tonight, depending on how things go today.

Hall of Merit: 1914 Results - Cal McVey elected

Cal McVey has been elected to the Hall of Merit. As will read on his plaque (courtesy of John Murphy), “The toughest and most consistent of Boston?s ?Big Four, he played on three championship teams for that city (1872, 1874-75), plus one more with Chicago during the inaugural NL season of 1876.”

Harry Stovey maintained his position among the returnees and outpolled newcomer Joe Kelley to finish 2nd. Kelley edged Charlie Bennett for 3rd. Jimmy Collins finished 5th in his first year of eligibility.

Sam Thompson moved ahead of Hugh Duffy to finish 6th. Joe McGinnity finished third among the newcomers and 8th overall. Frank Grant and Jimmy Ryan rounded out the top 10.

Thanks to John Murphy, Patrick W and Eric C for adding everything up and getting it to me. Sorry for the delayed posting.

RK  LY  Player             Pts Bal  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 1   2  Cal McVey          723  37 17  7  2  3  1  1  2        1  1  1        1
 2   3  Harry Stovey       627  40  5  7  4  2  5  1  3  3  1  2  2  1  1  3
 3 n/a  Joe Kelley         562  37  1  5  4  3  6  1  5  4  4  1  1  2  
 4   4  Charlie Bennett    557  33  5  9  4  3  1  2  2  1  1  1     2  1  1
 5 n/a  Jimmy Collins      483  33  2  1  1  5  6  2  3  8        2     1  1  1
 6   6  Sam Thompson       457  32  4     3  5     2  4  2  3  3     1  1     4
 7   5  Hugh Duffy         440  35        3  2  3  5  3  1  3  6  1  2  2  4
 8 n/a  Joe McGinnity      377  25  4  4  2  2  1  2  1              5  3     1
 9   7  Frank Grant        357  28     1  2  1  6  3  2        2  4  1  4  1  1
10   8  Jimmy Ryan         342  26     1  1  2  1  5  4  4     4        2     2
11  10  Lip Pike           306  21  1  2  3  2  3     1  1  2  2  2     1  1
12   9  Jake Beckley       290  24        2  1  1  2     2  6  1  4  3  1  1
13  11  George Van Haltren 282  24  1        1  2  2  2  1  1  3  4  2  2  1  2
14  12  Hughie Jennings    258  22  1  2  1  1           3  1  3  1  2  2  3  2
15  13  Dickey Pearce      238  19     1     3     3  1  1  1  3  2  1  2     1
16  19  Bob Caruthers      193  13     1  4  1  1  1        3     1     1
17  14  Clark Griffith     181  18           1        2  1  2  1  2  4     2  3
18  15  Cupid Childs       169  18        1        1  1     3  1     1     6  4
19  16  Pete Browning*     166  14        1        3     2  2     2  2  1  1
20  18  Jim McCormick      166  13        1        4  2  1  2        1  1     1
21  17  Mike Tiernan       123  12                 1     2     1  5     1  1  1
22  23  Mickey Welch        95   9        1  1           1     1  1     1     3
23  22  Charley Jones       89   9              1     1        1  1     3  2
24  20  Lave Cross          87  10                       1  1        3  2  1  2
25 n/a  Fielder Jones       83  10                          1  1  2  1     1  4
26  27  Ed Williamson       75  10                                1  1  2  4  2
27  24  John McGraw         73   7           1  1                 1     2  2
28  21  Mike Griffin        64   6                    1  1  2              1  1
29  28  Herman Long         53   7                                   2  2  1  2
30  25  Tony Mullane        49   5                          1  2        1  1
31  30  Jim Whitney         40   3        1     1                             1
32  26  Harry Wright        37   3              1              1  1
33  31  Tip O'Neill         35   3           1              1                 1
34  29  Deacon McGuire      22   3                                   1     1  1
35  33  Tommy Bond          20   2                       1                 1
36  32  Fred Dunlap         14   1                    1
37T 35T Bill Hutchison       9   1                                   1
37T 37  Levi Meyerle         9   1                                   1
39  35T Bobby Mathews        8   1                                      1
*won tie-breaker 12-11 on individual ballots.                      
Dropped Out:  Tom York (34), Noodles Hahn (38), Billy Nash (39T), Kid Gleason
(39T), Kip Selbach (41).

Hall of Merit: 1915 Ballot Discussion

Let’s get the 1915 discussion going.

I won’t have the full results up today, but I should be able to have them posted by Wednesday (I’ll be busy tomorrow and don’t see the time freeing up). I’ll post the totals of the top candidates in the discussion portion so we can move forward.

Here are the top new candidates . . . a couple of big guns are coming on this year.

***1915 (December 7)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
398 126.7 1890 George Davis-SS/3b (1940)
394 126.8 1891 Bill Dahlen-SS (1950)
207 67.5 1899 Jimmy Williams-2b (1965)
205 57.0 1897 Claude Ritchey-2b (1951)
209 43.4 1899 Jack Chesbro-P (1931)
200 43.1 1898 Bill Dinneen-P (1955)
172 34.3 1899 Harry Howell-P (1956)
113 35.1 1901 Hobe Ferris-2b (1938)
131 17.3 1899 Tully Sparks-P (1937)

Hall of Merit: 1914 Ballot

So sorry this is late guys. I’m going to be out of the office until Friday and I’ve been preparing for the trip all day, posting the ballot thread slipped my mind.

I don’t have access to my home email either, so anyone that sent a ‘reminder’ I didn’t get it. If you know my work email address, don’t hesitate to send reminders there . . .

Hall of Merit: 1914 Ballot Discussion

We’re electing one this year . . . and there’s a slew of top new eligibles:

 WS  W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died) 
305 85.9 1892  Joe Kelley-LF (1943)
290 81.0 1896  Fielder Jones-CF (1934)
274 83.0 1895  Jimmy Collins-3b (1943)
269 52.6 1899  Joe McGinnity-P (1929)
243 53.5 1895  Al Orth-P (1948)
233 50.8 1897  Jesse Tannehill-P (1956)
209 47.9 1895  John Anderson-LF/1b (1949)
183 43.1 1896  Dan McGann-1b (1910)
149 41.9 1901  Socks Seybold-RF (1921)
177 32.6 1899  Jimmy Slagle-CF (1956)
155 30.2 1899  Charlie Hickman-1b (1934)
126 22.4 1900  Sammy Strang-3b/2b (1932)
164 14.9 1896  Chick Fraser-P (1940)
119 22.8 1903  Jake Weimer-P (1928)
098 25.1 1899  Ossee Schreckengost-C (1914)

I’m assuming the WS and WARP numbers above are not adjusted for season length. Hopefully I’ll have the pennants added thread updated by tomorrow.

Hall of Merit: 1913 Results - Bid McPhee elected

Bid McPhee has been elected to the Hall of Merit by the narrowest margin in the 16-year history of the voting.

McPhee defeated Cal McVey 751-747. The previous closest balloting was in 1906 when Al Spalding defeated Ezra Sutton 758-749.5. Sutton was elected in 1908. McPhee and McVey were separated by 8 points in the 1912 balloting.

Harry Stovey broke out of what had been a neck-and-neck battle with Charlie Bennett since 1909, to move solidly into 3rd place. Hugh Duffy moved into the #5 spot, while Sam Thompson leaped over Frank Grant and Jimmy Ryan into 6th place.

Newcomer Jake Beckley finished 9th, one point ahead of Lip Pike who rounded out the top 10 by passing George Van Haltren in the balloting.

Other first-year eligibles to receive votes were Lave Cross, who finished a disappointing 20th and Kid Gleason who finished tied for 39th.

Rk   LY Player            Pts Bal    1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 1    3 Bid McPhee        751  40   16  5  6  4  1  1  1  1  1              2  2
 2    4 Cal McVey         747  40   13 11  2  4  1  1  2     1  2  2  1
 3    6 Harry Stovey      635  39    4  5  6  5  6  1  3  3  1  2     1  2
 4    5 Charlie Bennett   573  34    4  5  6  7  3     2  2  2     2  1
 5    7 Hugh Duffy        515  39       3  4     4  3  4  5  3  3  4  3     2  1
 6   10 Sam Thompson      488  34    2  2  1  4  3  6  2  4  2  2  1  2  3
 7    8 Frank Grant       394  30    1     2  2  4  3  3  1  2  5  2  1  1  2  1
 8    9 Jimmy Ryan        391  30       1  1  3  3  5  3  1  2  2  3  3  1  2
 9  n/e Jake Beckley      336  29          2     2  2  2  6  2  1  2  5     2  3
10   12 Lip Pike          335  22    1  2  1  4  2  5  1  2     1  2  1
11   11 George VanHaltren 329  27.5     1  1     3  5  2  1  2  2  2  2  2  1  3.5
12   13 Hughie Jennings   295  25.5  1  2  1  1        2  2  3  1  1  2  4  4  1.5
13   15 Dickey Pearce     260  20       1  2  1  2  1  2  1  5  1     1  1     2
14   17 Clark Griffith    220  21       1        1  2  1  1  1  4     4  2  3  1
15   14 Cupid Childs      218  20          1     1  1  1  2  2  3  3  1  1  1  3
16   18 Pete Browning     212  18             2     3  3  1  1  2  1  1     1  3
17   16 Mike Tiernan      200  20             1        2     3  2  1  3  5  2  1
18   19 Jim McCormick*    186  17             2  1  1  1     2  1  2  2  1  2  2
19   20 Bob Caruthers     186  14       3  2     1        1  1     3     2     1
20  n/e Lave Cross        177  18                1  1  1  1  2  2     1  4  2  3
21   22 Mike Griffin      131  13                      2  2  1     3     1  3  1
22   24 Charlie Jones     116  12                1        1     2  1  3  1  2  1
23   21 Mickey Welch      112  10          2     1        1           3     2  1
24   23 Joh McGraw         85   8             1              3           4
25   26 Tony Mullane       64   7                      1  1        1     1  1  2
26   25 Harry Wright       61   4          1     1     1  1
27   27 Ed Williamson      59   7                               1  1     3  2
28   30 Herman Long        48   5.5                       1     1        1  1  1.5
29   28 Deacon McGuire     43   5                               2     1        2
30   29 Jim Whitney        42   3          1  1                             1
31   31 Tip O'Neill        37   4.5                    1                    2  1.5
32   36 Fred Dunlap        21   2                   1                          1
33   34 Tommy Bond         17   2                               1              1
34   38 Tom York           14   2                                        1     1
35T  39 Bill Hutchison     11   1                               1
35T  -- Bobby Mathews      11   1                               1
37   37 Levi Meyerle       10   1                                  1
38   -- Noodles Hahn        8   1                                        1
39T  33 Billy Nash          7   1                                           1
39T n/e Kid Gleason         7   1                                           1
41   -- Kip Selbach         6   1                                              1
*won tiebreaker (ahead 15-10 on individual ballots)
Dropped Out: Duke Farrell (32), Jack Clements (35).

Hall of Merit: 1913 Ballot

Jake Beckley and Lave Cross are the top newcomers, joining top holdovers Bid McPhee and Cal McVey. Only one will get in, who will it be?

Hall of Merit: 1912 Results - Burkett and Start elected

The class of 1912 has been named—Jesse Burkett and Joe Start.

Burkett, 44, was the only player named on each of the 42 ballots. He received 22 first place votes and 36 of the 42 had him in the top 2 (meaning they endorsed his election this year). He cruised to election in his second year of eligibility, finishing with 957 points.

The most discussed candidate in the 15 years of Hall of Merit balloting, Start has finally made it in his 15th try. The 69 year-old Start has been on every ballot since the first election in 1898, when he finished 11th. He was the first runner-up from 1908-1910, and slipped to second runner-up in 1911 when Burkett came on the ballot. Start finished with 731 points (15 of the 42 voters had him in the top two, 16 more had him third or fourth).

Bid McPhee and Cal McVey have moved into 3rd and 4th place, separated by just 8 points (658-650). Like Start, McVey has been on the ballot since 1898 (when he finished 13th).

Charlie Bennett and Harry Stovey continue to see-saw, this year Bennett is in front, finishing 5th with 557 points, Stovey was 6th with 555.

Hugh Duffy was 7th, Frank Grant 8th, Jimmy Ryan finished 9th and Sam Thompson rounds out the top 10.

The top newcomer was Clark Griffith who finished 17th. Deacon McGuire also debuted in 1912, finishing 28th.

Dickey Pearce is creeping higher up the radar, he was named on 4 additional ballots this year, and he jumped ahead of Mike Tiernan and Pete Browning, into 15th place.

RK   LY Player             Pts Ballots  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
 1    2 Jesse Burkett      957  42.0   22 14  5  1
 2    3 Joe Start          731  38.0    6  9 11  5  2  2  1        1  1
 3    4 Bid McPhee         658  39.0    6  3  9  5  2  4  3  1     1  2     1     2
 4    5 Cal McVey          650  38.0    4  4  7 11  3  1  1  2  1     1  1  1  1
 5    7 Charlie Bennett    557  35.0    3  3  3  3  8  3  2  1  4  2  1  1  1
 6    6 Harry Stovey       555  39.0       4     6  4  3  4  6  5  1  1  2     1  2
 7    8 Hugh Duffy         434  36.0          2  1  3  3  3  5  1  6  2  6  2  1  1
 8    9 Frank Grant        382  31.0       1        5  4  2  3  3  4  2  2  1  2  2
 9   10 Jimmy Ryan         378  33.0             2  1  4  7  1  4     3     3  7  1
10   11 Sam Thompson       375  30.0    1     2     2  3  6  2  1  3  2  4  1  1  2
11   12 George Van Haltren 287  27.5             1  1  1  3  2  3  2  3  1  3  5  2.5
12   13 Lip Pike           286  20.0       2     1  3  2  4  2  3  1     1     1
13   14 Hughie Jennings    263  24.5       1  1  1  2  1     1  1  2  2     6  4  2.5
14   15 Cupid Childs       209  20.0                1     1  1  3  4  3  2  3  2
15   18 Dickey Pearce      201  17.0             2     2  2  1  3  1  2  1  1     2
16   16 Mike Tiernan       195  20.0                   1     4     1  4  3  3  2  2
17  n/e Clark Griffith     178  18.0       1     1        1     2        2  6  4  1
18   17 Pete Browning      174  16.0                   1     5  3  1  2  1        3
19   19 Jim McCormick      164  16.0                   2  1  1     4  1  2  1  3  1
20   20 Bob Caruthers      147  11.0          2  1  1  1        3        3
21   22 Mickey Welch        91  10.0                1  1           1        2  3  2
22   21 Mike Griffin        81   8.0                   1     1        3  1  1     1
23   23 John McGraw         75   8.0                   1           1  2     2  1  1
24   28 Charley Jones       64   8.0                            1     1  1  1  1  3
25   26 Harry Wright        63   5.0                1        2  1        1
26   25 Tony Mullane        59   6.0                      1        2     1  1     1
27   24 Ed Williamson       58   7.0                1                 1     1     4
28  n/e Deacon McGuire      42   5.0                                  3           2
29   27 Jim Whitney         40   3.0                1  1                 1
30   29 Herman Long         32   4.0                               1     1        2
31   32 Tip O'Neill         19   2.0                         1                    1
32   30 Duke Farrell*       18   2.0                               1           1
33   33 Billy Nash          18   2.0                                     2
34   37 Tommy Bond+         17   2.0                               1              1
35   31 Jack Clements^      17   2.0                                     1  1
36   34 Fred Dunlap         17   1.0             1
37   35 Levi Meyerle        16   2.0                                     1     1
38   36 Tom York            11   1.0                               1
39  38T Bill Hutchison       7   1.0                                           1
*won tiebreaker (ahead on individual ballots 2-1)
+won tiebreaker (more 10th place votes)
^won tiebreaker (ahead on individual ballots 2-1)
Dropped Out: Chief Zimmer (38T), Perry Werden (40).