Sox Therapy: New Manager Likes to Do Stuff

Bobby Valentine is going to be the new Red Sox manager, pending agreement on a contract.  I’m generally happy about this.  It’s not just that Valentine has a good record as a manager, but more that he’s got upside.  A manager like Valentine could win you a handful of games – and he’s going to try to win those games.  Most statistically-inclined clubs have opted for managers who will carry out competently the directives of the front office.  This option limits outcomes on both the ...

Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

The 2011 season for the Mariners was less disappointing than 2010, though mostly because the expectations were significantly lower going into this year.  The Mariners didn’t have a whole

lot in the way of pleasant surprises as none of the possible bouncebacks really bounced back and most of the legacy prospects (the older prospects that have been hanging onto the second

tier on the prospect lists for a few years) didn’t take any steps forward.  That Vincent Catricala, who’s not really a ...

Transaction Oracle: Indians - Re-sign Grady Sizemore

Cleveland Indians sign OF Grady Sizemore to a 1 year/$5 million contract.

Up to $4.5 million in incentives as well. $.5 million for being named comeback player of the year and an additional $4 million based on plate appearances ($0.25M each for 450, 475 PAs. $0.5M each for 500, 525, 550, 575, 600, 625, 650 PAs—thanks to Cots for laying it out so clearly)

After Sizemore’s age 25 season according to similarity score the top matches for Sizemore were Barry Bonds and Duke Snider. After a lousy ...

Transaction Oracle: Rangers - SIgn Joe Nathan

Texas Rangers signed DSA Joe Nathan to a 2 year/$14.5 million contract. ($7 million in each of 2012 and 2013, club option of $9 million with a $.5 million buyout for 2014)

What an interesting signing. There’s no reason to expect to see the brilliance of 2004 to 2009 (ERA of 1.87, 11.1 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and a 4.3 strikeout to walk ratio), but then that’s not what the Rangers are paying for. Nathan still has fine control and still gets nearly a strikeout per inning. Very few ...

Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Angels

Like the last team projected (White Sox), it’s very interesting to see what route the White Sox take this winter.  Despite ZiPS’ favoritest young prospect, Mike Trout, the Angels have a

pretty low upside offense, with Hunter and Abreu starting to show their age and a lot of average-ish players that aren’t problems, but not exactly feared middle-of-the-order guys.  The

Angels think they have surplus outfielders, but they really don’t.  The Angels led the AL in ERA, but that’s also top-heavy ...

Sox Therapy: What going on down Jersey St?

In the past two days, things seem to have gotten a bit weird.  The managerial search had been progressing in its normal, boring way.  Cherington had interviewed normal, boring candidates like Dale Sveum and Pete Mackanin and Torey Lovullo.  They were looking for a Francona clone, a good company man who will carry out the directives of management, handle the media well, and keep the players happy. 

Now it’s reported that Bobby Valentine is a leading candidate.  There are conflicting reports ...

Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

That didn’t go too well, did it?  The White Sox find themselves at a crossroads, where they have just enough talent on the team to compete in the AL Central, but not enough depth that they

can really handle nasty surprises.  In 2011, the performances of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and the continued lack of value from Jake Peavy (the Sox have paid him roughly $34 million for 3.6

bWAR) hit the White Sox hard enough that problems that the team could have overcome in isolation (growing pains from ...

Sox Therapy: The Dumber-than-Marcels: Free Agent Starters

My first run-through of the dumber-than-Marcel projections for position players left me quite skeptical of the top-line free agents.  Now I’ve done the pitchers, my sense is that once again it’s the middle-class free agents who will offer better value. 

These projections are based on a 3/2/1/2 regressed weighted average of pitcher value stats, a 50-50 split of Fangraphs and CHONE numbers.  It’s a half-FIP, half-RA projection.  In the position player projections, I included a $ value ...

Transaction Oracle: Dodgers - Signed Mark Ellis

Los Angles Dodgers sign 2B Mark Ellis to a 2 year $8.75 million contract (team option for a third year at $5.75 with a $1 million buyout)

I’m never going to love the signing of an aging mid-tier player. Particularly not one with plenty of problems staying in the lineup. Still, it’s a move that makes all kinds of sense. First of all, the best option in the organization seems to have been Ivan DeJesus. He had a good year by his standards in AAA last year and it translates to .246/.314/.322. ...

Transaction Oracle: Phillies - Signed Jonathan Papelbon

Philadelphia Phillies sign DSA Jonathan Papelbon to a four year/ $50 million contract Fifth year vests based on games finished.

Forgive the delay, but I wasn’t sure whether I’d have to substitute Heath Bell. Or Hoyt Wilhelm. The writeup would be slightly different in each case.

It’s an argument that I have no chance of winning, but some windmills need to be tilted at. I’m referring to the DSA. Stands for Designated Save Accumulator. I’ve said many times that you are volunteering to pay a ...