Andruw Jones is overrated?
I don't think so.

Is Andruw Jones overrated? At the start of the 1998 season, this question occupied the minds of many fantasy players. This seems to happen every season. A great minor league prospect, who has been extremely hyped, doesn't meet unrealistic expectations. Anxious fantasy owners then jump off the player's bandwagon and trade the youngster, only to be sorry later when the player produces as expected.

Is this the case with Andruw Jones? Will he develop into a superstar caliber player, or will he disappoint his many hopeful fantasy owners?

What do I think? Barring injury, Andruw Jones WILL be, at the very least, an All Star caliber player. I didn't say might, could be, or should be. I said WILL be.

How can I say that? I did a little research. I dug into my database and checked out similar players. I asked my database (yes, we are on speaking terms) who are the players who batted 300 times or more at the age of 20.

Here is list of players that my computer spat out. My comments are at the bottom.

Name			Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB
MEL OTT		        1929	.328	.449	.635	1.084	545
TONY CONIGLIARO	        1965	.269	.340	.512	.852	521
WILLIE MAYS		1951	.274	.356	.472	.828	464
ROGERS HORNSBY	        1916	.313	.369	.444	.813	495
MICKEY MANTLE		1951	.267	.349	.443	.792	341
ARKY VAUGHAN		1932	.318	.375	.412	.787	497
HANK AARON		1954	.280	.325	.447	.772	468
FRED LINDSTROM	        1925	.287	.332	.430	.762	356
BOBBY DOERR		1938	.289	.363	.397	.760	509
KEN GRIFFEY		1989	.264	.331	.420	.751	455
TY COBB		        1906	.316	.355	.394	.749	358
BUDDY LEWIS		1936	.291	.347	.399	.746	601

Andrum Jones		1997	.231	.329	.416	.745	399

RON SANTO		1960	.251	.312	.409	.721	347
BUTCH WYNEGAR		1976	.260	.358	.363	.721	534
SHERRY MAGEE		1904	.277	.308	.409	.717	364
TRAVIS JACKSON	        1923	.275	.321	.391	.712	327
CHUBBY DEAN		1936	.287	.337	.374	.711	342
CLIFF MARKLE		1914	.272	.376	.335	.711	463
ROBERTO ALOMAR	        1988	.266	.328	.382	.710	545
ED KRANEPOOL		1964	.257	.313	.393	.706	420
FRANKIE GUSTINE	        1940	.281	.328	.374	.702	524
JOHNNY MILJUS		1915	.281	.342	.357	.699	530
CURT FLOOD		1958	.261	.317	.382	.699	422
CESAR CEDENO		1971	.264	.296	.398	.694	611
WOODY ENGLISH		1927	.290	.325	.365	.690	334
PHIL CAVARRETTA	        1936	.273	.306	.376	.682	458
GEORGE LOWE		1915	.265	.313	.364	.677	343
ALAN TRAMMELL		1978	.268	.337	.339	.676	448
ROBIN YOUNT		1975	.267	.309	.367	.676	558
MICKEY O'NEIL		1920	.283	.339	.326	.665	304
SIBBY SISTI		1940	.251	.311	.353	.664	459
LES MANN		1913	.253	.291	.369	.660	407
AL KALINE		1954	.276	.306	.347	.653	504
CLIFF HEATHCOTE	        1918	.259	.301	.345	.646	348
BOB DIDIER		1969	.256	.321	.307	.628	352
BOB KENNEDY		1940	.252	.301	.315	.616	606
DANNY AINGE		1979	.237	.270	.286	.556	308
ROY JOHNSON		1915	.223	.274	.277	.551	300
TONY BARTIROME	        1952	.220	.273	.265	.538	355
JOSE OQUENDO		1983	.213	.261	.244	.505	328
JOHN KNIGHT		1905	.203	.227	.274	.501	325

Counting Andruw, there are 42 players. I ranked the players according to OPS (On Base + Slugging, a pretty accurate measure of offense). Jones ranked 13th.

Although I didn't recognize all the players near Jones off the top of my head, most of them were good-to-excellent ballplayers. The ones who I didn't recognize I looked up (I sometimes do this when I don't know something) and was surprised at the quality of their playing days.

The players immediately surrounding Jones were all, excluding Chubby Dean, All Star caliber players during their careers.

Name			Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB
FRED LINDSTROM		1925	.287	.332	.430	.762	356 
BOBBY DOERR		1938	.289	.363	.397	.760	509
KEN GRIFFEY		1989	.264	.331	.420	.751	455
TY COBB			1906	.316	.355	.394	.749	358
BUDDY LEWIS		1936	.287	.337	.374	.711	342

Andruw Jones		1997	.231	.329	.416	.745	399

RON SANTO		1960	.251	.312	.409	.721	347
BUTCH WYNEGAR		1976	.260	.358	.363	.721	534
SHERRY MAGEE		1904	.277	.308	.409	.717	364
TRAVIS JACKSON		1923	.275	.321	.391	.712	327
CHUBBY DEAN		1936	.287	.337	.374	.711	342

(I'm not even sure Dean should be included in the study. After playing two seasons at 1B for Philadelphia, he was converted to pitcher. He pitched for 5 mediocre seasons with Philly and Cleveland.)

All the players who ranked ahead of Jones enjoyed stellar careers. Only Lewis and Conigliaro don't have plaques in the Hall Fame.

Checking out Buddy Lewis, I was surprised to find that he was a pretty good player. Lewis played 11 seasons with the Washington Senators and appeared in two All Star Games (1938 and 1947). His lifetime marks include a .297 AVG, .368 OBA, .420 SLG and 1563 hits.

I shouldn't have to tell you what happened to Tony C. (Besides as a Red Sox fan, it's too painful for me to reproduce here.)

Now, I'm not saying that Jones will be a Hall of Famer. Many factors could prevent him from getting there (see Conigliaro). However, anyone writing him off already is way off base.

Thinking Jones was not a great 20 year-old player is incorrect. He was. Factoring in his defense, Jones had, arguably, one of the best seasons any 20 YO ever has.

The old saying about comparing apples to apples, oranges to oranges, is very appropriate here. To get a good historical perspective on Jones' season, see how he stacks up to other 20 YO players. Doing otherwise could lead you draw an incorrect conclusion. For me, comparing his 1997 season to the seasons of other 20 year old players reinforced my confidence that Andruw Jones WILL be an All Star caliber player.

If you still think otherwise, trade him to someone else in your league. He'll owe you one a few seasons from now.

If you are wondering where the numbers came from, go to Sean Lahman's Baseball Archive. Although my database contains more info than you'll find at Sean's site. I do use his data for my historical studies.

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