When Bad Things Happen To Good Pitchers
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When Bad Things Happen To Good Pitchers |
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One of the best things about belonging to SABR (the Society of American Baseball Research) is that it allows you to subscribe to the SABR-L newsgroup. It's moderated, so we're spared most of the "Yankees Rule!" kind of discussion, civil (for the most part), and usually interesting. Recently, there was some talk on SABR-L about what type of pitchers give up a lot of unearned runs. Some thought that a pitcher like Nolan Ryan might suffer from poor defense because his lack of control would cause the fielders behind him to lose concentration. Others believed just the opposite: since Ryan allowed fewer balls to be hit into play against him, his defense had less of an opportunity to err. Ground-ball pitchers, according to this line of reasoning, should allow the greatest number of unearned runs. Still others believed that the mental make-up of the man on the mound was most important. One subscriber mentioned that Atlee Hammaker and Ismael Valdes, among others, seemed to lose their composure once their teammates started making mistakes behind them. Jeff Angus looked at the pitchers that allowed the highest percentage of unearned runs from 1987 to 1996 and found mixed results. Some supposed head-cases (who might be more likely to lose their composure) were on the list (Mitch Williams and Norm Charlton) along with several of our more solid citizens (Greg Maddux and Kevin Brown). So there seem to be two issues here: 1) what type of pitchers tend to have more errors committed behind them, and 2) what pitchers seem to let up once those errors have been made. To start with the first one, I looked at the play-by-play data from 1980 to 1997 and determined the fielding percentages when each pitcher was on the mound. Here are the players with the lowest team fielding percentages (500 innings minimum) along with how they ranked in the percentage of unearned runs allowed (where #1 allowed the highest and #426 the lowest): Name IP R ER UPct PO A ER PB FPct Rank Pat Zachry 597.2 279 239 .143 1793 698 76 0 .9704 16 Gene Garber 718.2 310 262 .155 2156 1091 97 3 .9710 7 Chuck Rainey 566.0 336 291 .134 1698 874 73 5 .9724 30 Jeff Fassero 1084.1 461 396 .141 3253 1433 132 2 .9726 20 Mike Hampton 592.1 296 250 .155 1777 928 75 10 .9730 6 Chris Welsh 537.1 297 266 .104 1612 878 69 0 .9730 160 Alejandro Pena 1057.2 427 365 .145 3173 1064 117 9 .9731 14 Juan Eichelberger 578.2 298 263 .117 1736 720 68 7 .9731 97 Ismael Valdes 647.2 248 218 .121 1943 710 73 1 .9732 80 Atlee Hammaker 1078.2 493 439 .110 3236 1485 129 3 .9734 128 Where: The pitchers with the highest team fielding percentage behind them: Name IP R ER UPct PO A ER PB FPct Rank Jeff Brantley 723.1 268 246 .082 2170 672 31 4 .9892 338 Mike Mussina 1361.2 558 530 .050 4085 1416 65 4 .9883 421 Greg Mathews 514.0 247 233 .057 1542 680 27 3 .9880 418 Scott Kamieniecki 806.0 406 382 .059 2418 1066 44 4 .9875 416 Tom Henke 789.1 252 234 .071 2368 622 39 6 .9871 388 Cal Eldred 863.2 417 399 .043 2591 839 45 8 .9871 425 Doc Medich 533.1 265 242 .087 1600 719 31 4 .9868 299 Mark Williamson 689.2 321 296 .078 2069 897 40 6 .9867 358 Bobby Thigpen 568.2 237 217 .084 1706 599 32 5 .9863 316 Gregg Olson 500.0 187 178 .048 1500 543 29 0 .9860 422 How have the most extreme ground-ball and fly-ball pitchers done? Let's start with the ground-ball pitchers: Name PO A ER FPct GO FO GPct Rank McDowell,Roger 3146 1812 134 .974 2187 699 .758 414 Swift,Bill 4365 2476 159 .977 2980 999 .749 348 Brown,Kevin 5763 3016 187 .979 3805 1308 .744 273 Sisk,Doug 1569 930 68 .974 1005 374 .729 416 Erickson,Scott 4594 2456 133 .981 2994 1148 .723 141 Corbett,Doug 1657 894 49 .981 907 353 .720 158 Wickman,Bob 1594 770 42 .983 980 396 .712 84 Maddux,Greg 7796 3797 210 .982 4623 1937 .705 96 Hampton,Mike 1777 928 75 .973 1092 456 .705 421 Denny,John 3641 1935 116 .980 1962 831 .702 252 Where: The most extreme fly-ball pitchers: Name PO A ER FPct GO FO GPct Rank Fernandez,Sid 5598 1208 115 .983 1396 2635 .346 43 Caudill,Bill 1729 422 42 .981 426 766 .357 185 Reardon,Jeff 3330 764 68 .984 913 1621 .360 37 Atherton,Keith 1702 463 37 .983 491 866 .362 49 Niedenfuer,Tom 1958 526 47 .981 536 933 .365 146 Lopez,Aurelio 2104 611 48 .983 584 981 .373 76 Holland,Al 1910 535 56 .978 528 859 .381 336 Guante,Cecilio 1785 457 46 .980 494 793 .384 232 Berenguer,Juan 3484 936 80 .982 988 1558 .388 93 McCatty,Steve 2905 977 71 .982 928 1438 .392 113 For the most part, ground-ball pitchers have more errors committed behind them than fly-ball pitchers. Still, I was surprised to see that four of the ten most extreme ground-ball pitchers had better than average team fielding percentages behind them and that two of the most extreme fly-ball pitchers had the worse than average percentages. Something else to consider is passed balls. Here are the pitchers with the most passed balls per 9 innings: Name IP R ER UPct PO A ER PB PBAvg Rank Charlie Hough 3030.2 1476 1291 .125 9092 3517 235 261 .775 63 Joe Niekro 1712.0 783 677 .135 5136 2152 130 132 .694 28 Tim Wakefield 826.1 445 382 .142 2479 834 65 53 .577 19 Tom Candiotti 2449.2 1111 964 .132 7349 2927 218 112 .411 39 Marvin Freeman 593.1 333 306 .081 1780 803 65 20 .303 343 Phil Niekro 1634.1 795 714 .102 4903 1935 124 41 .226 181 Where: PBAvg is the number of passed balls allowed per nine innings. It's not too surprising that knuckle-ball pitchers tend to give up a lot of passed balls and unearned runs. You won't find any of them on the list of pitchers who never had a catcher miss one of their offerings: Name IP R ER UPct PO A ER PB PBAvg Rank Luis Leal 944.1 476 435 .086 2833 984 73 0 .000 309 Bob Milacki 795.2 415 387 .067 2387 981 50 0 .000 395 Bruce Sutter 651.1 249 227 .088 1954 897 59 0 .000 291 Pat Zachry 597.2 279 239 .143 1793 698 76 0 .000 16 John Montefusco 583.0 275 249 .095 1749 664 60 0 .000 232 Bill Caudill 576.1 240 225 .063 1729 422 42 0 .000 411 Doug Corbett 552.1 226 204 .097 1657 894 49 0 .000 213 Chris Welsh 537.1 297 266 .104 1612 878 69 0 .000 160 Gregg Olson 500.0 187 178 .048 1500 543 29 0 .000 422 Finally, I thought I'd look at pitchers at both ends of the spectrum and see how they pitched both before and after errors or passed balls had occurred in the inning. I did not differentiate between an error committed by the pitcher and those committed by his teammates. When dealing with relief pitchers, I did not count miscues that occurred prior to their entrance in the game. Here are the pitchers (with 162 or more innings pitched) with the lowest percentage of earned runs allowed in a season along with how they pitched after an error or passed ball: Name Year IP R ER AB H 2B 3B HR BB IB BP K SF Frank Tanana 1990 176.1 104 104 7 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 Rick Sutcliffe 1988 226.0 97 97 26 5 1 0 1 3 1 0 4 0 Omar Olivares 1992 197.0 84 84 12 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Doug Drabek 1997 169.1 109 108 22 7 2 0 3 1 0 0 4 0 Don Sutton 1987 191.2 101 100 21 4 0 0 2 2 0 0 5 0 Jack McDowell 1991 253.2 97 96 14 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 Rick Sutcliffe 1986 176.2 92 91 25 5 4 0 0 7 3 0 4 0 Eric Show 1988 234.2 86 85 37 7 3 0 0 6 0 1 8 0 Mike Mussina 1993 167.2 84 83 18 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 5 1 Dave Johnson 1990 180.0 83 82 10 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 And the pitchers allowing the highest percentage of unearned runs: Name Year IP R ER AB H 2B 3B HR BB IB BP K SF Joe Magrane 1988 165.1 57 40 50 13 2 0 0 8 3 0 9 2 Orel Hershiser 1985 239.2 72 54 61 9 0 1 1 6 1 0 11 1 Atlee Hammaker 1983 172.1 57 43 38 7 2 0 0 1 0 1 7 0 Charlie Hough 1987 285.1 159 120 142 26 5 0 3 26 1 4 43 4 Dennis Martinez 1988 235.1 94 71 68 22 4 0 2 9 1 0 8 2 Frank Tanana 1984 246.1 117 89 44 13 2 1 3 2 0 0 3 3 Don Robinson 1988 176.2 63 48 40 14 4 0 2 3 2 0 13 1 Charles Hudson 1984 173.2 101 78 40 14 3 0 0 3 0 0 6 3 Randy Tomlin 1991 175.0 75 58 46 14 1 1 1 3 1 0 12 0 Bob Knepper 1983 203.0 93 72 43 16 4 0 1 6 1 1 5 1 The pitchers in the top group were extremely effective following errors. Still, the most striking difference between the two groups of pitchers is the number of opportunities. In 1990, Frank Tanana faced only eight batters all season following an error or passed ball; he allowed only a single and an intentional walk and finished the season with no unearned runs. Six years earlier, he had faced 49 batters in similar situations and gave up 28 unearned runs. Charlie Hough's enormous number of chances following a miscue are due, for the most part, to an incredible 65 passed balls made by his catchers that season. The next highest total in the years I examined was by Joe Niekro, who threw 27 passed balls in 1985. In case you're wondering how Orel Hershiser could hold opponents to a .148 batting average following an error and still give up 18 unearned runs, the Dodgers committed 37 errors while he was pitching in 1985, the highest total from 1980 to 1997. He contributed seven of those himself. The Mets made the most errors per nine innings (50 innings minimum) when they booted 19 chances in 59.1 innings behind Randy Jones in 1981. That works out to a .937 fielding percentage. He made none of those errors himself, handling 21 chances flawlessly. Dennis Eckersley got the best defensive support when he pitched 80 innings in 1992 without having a single error committed behind him. I also looked at their career totals. I thought it might be interesting to see what pitchers have seemed to let down following errors. I computed the OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of the batters facing all pitchers both in situations before and after errors or passed balls were committed behind them. The pitchers allowing the biggest OPS increase after errors (minimum 500 career innings pitched): Rank Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB IB BP K SF AOPS DIFF
59 Donovan Osborne 2650 687 136 14 74 182 14 13 431 12 .710
138 46 10 2 7 17 1 0 23 4 .979 +.269
79 Willie Banks 1861 507 87 9 49 227 10 9 335 10 .757
97 34 5 1 5 20 2 1 17 4 1.019 +.262
302 Andy Pettitte 2315 602 107 14 43 190 4 7 427 7 .690
111 43 7 0 2 10 1 0 15 3 .927 +.237
135 Andy McGaffigan 2985 729 127 20 46 274 34 15 573 19 .648
149 44 5 1 9 20 4 1 37 3 .884 +.236
288 Teddy Higuera 4956 1186 225 19 124 416 15 23 1042 42 .664
231 76 17 2 7 27 2 2 39 8 .898 +.234
410 Tim Lollar 3243 794 154 25 89 462 19 16 580 22 .727
134 47 9 2 4 18 2 1 20 1 .958 +.232
76 John Curtis 1799 471 95 13 40 183 28 5 205 9 .716
112 39 7 1 4 14 1 1 15 3 .947 +.230
298 Bob Wickman 1923 504 91 7 37 214 21 20 334 14 .708
98 29 4 2 5 20 2 1 17 2 .934 +.226
395 Bob Milacki 2963 781 155 13 79 293 16 6 371 23 .730
107 36 8 0 6 8 1 0 16 0 .957 +.226
174 Bob Shirley 3059 811 153 24 74 304 35 6 407 30 .726
137 46 9 2 6 19 4 1 18 7 .950 +.223
Where: The pitchers who seem to bear down in the same situations: Rank Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB IB BP K SF AOPS DIFF
423 Tom Niedenfuer 2362 593 95 15 60 217 60 12 452 26 .678
75 8 0 0 0 9 7 1 22 1 .246 -.432
405 Eric King 3117 789 125 14 73 316 18 31 435 16 .695
155 25 3 2 0 17 3 0 24 5 .431 -.265
355 Rick Waits 2370 714 115 15 50 236 19 3 290 20 .784
128 31 3 0 0 11 1 0 20 3 .556 -.227
224 Jeff Montgomery 2716 638 111 9 64 245 30 21 624 17 .647
107 17 3 0 2 8 5 1 28 2 .429 -.219
343 Marvin Freeman 2134 583 96 17 61 232 17 20 353 10 .764
157 33 1 0 2 17 1 3 30 1 .549 -.215
398 Steve McCatty 3539 902 124 27 103 406 11 20 420 24 .724
130 21 5 1 2 18 0 0 15 6 .515 -.209
329 Vida Blue 3163 772 150 25 88 369 16 4 522 21 .710
189 38 6 0 1 18 2 0 29 5 .506 -.204
73 Pascual Perez 4444 1127 166 28 104 316 46 22 776 21 .672
250 40 3 4 3 28 7 3 46 3 .471 -.201
258 Jeff Shaw 2051 540 114 7 59 154 25 19 332 16 .723
89 18 3 0 1 12 2 1 18 6 .543 -.179
185 Ken Schrom 3324 930 189 12 119 306 15 24 349 30 .791
160 33 7 0 6 14 2 1 23 10 .614 -.177
Pascual Perez? Here's how some pitchers mentioned earlier in the article have done: Name AB H 2B 3B HR BB IB BP K SF AOPS DIFF
80 Ismael Valdes 2298 533 102 10 52 143 14 6 463 11 .626
146 46 8 1 3 19 4 1 28 4 .819 +.192
70 Norm Charlton 2615 615 101 14 52 300 20 23 637 13 .657
148 39 7 1 4 23 7 3 30 2 .749 +.091
64 Greg Maddux 9204 2180 363 39 122 570 88 66 1752 31 .603
467 122 21 4 6 39 12 3 68 14 .659 +.056
85 Mitch Williams 2335 510 97 12 47 512 35 50 626 27 .690
125 27 7 2 2 32 4 2 34 3 .713 +.023
69 Nolan Ryan 9245 1921 322 56 166 1073 31 71 2667 59 .600
528 113 23 3 6 76 5 7 138 18 .609 +.009
128 Atlee Hammaker 3880 990 144 21 92 270 47 11 564 25 .670
235 61 11 2 2 17 7 2 51 7 .636 -.034
I'm not sure if we want to read too much into sample sizes this small, but it sure looks as if Atlee Hammaker doesn't deserve his reputation for letting down following an error. On the contrary, despite the fact that his teammates have combined for a .973 fielding percentage behind him (10th worst), he's actually pitched better following his teammates mistakes. Complete team pitcher unearned run/defense data. Tom Ruane |
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