Consistent Hitters and Similar Seasons
|
|
|
|
Consistent Hitters and Similar Seasons |
|
|
|
|
I have always been a fan of consistent players. Sure it's thrilling when a player like Greg Vaughn or Gary Sheffield has a break-out season, but there's something to be said for a player you can count on, year-in and year-out, to perform at a predictable level. This lets a team's fans (as well as its GM) worry about other things when thinking about the upcoming season. So who have been our most (and least) consistent players? Well, one way to determine this would be to pick some measurement (like batting average or ERA) and see how much it changes from year to year. My favorite offensive measurement that's easy to calculate is OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) so let's start with that. I decided to use a 100 plate appearance per season minimum because (at least initially) I wanted to concentrate on performance rather than opportunity. I also figured it might bring to the foreground players often overlooked. So what player had the most consistent back-to-back seasons? Rusty Staub, from 1975 to 1976. Here are his stats: Year Team G AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SF AVG SLG OBP OPS 1975 NY N 155 574 162 30 4 19 77 9 9 .282 .448 .371 .819 1976 DET A 161 589 176 28 3 15 83 7 11 .299 .433 .386 .819 He may have changed teams between those two years, but he kept nearly everything else the same. His OPS in 1975 was .8184377 and the next year it was .8184444. That difference of .0000067 was the lowest in history. Over a three season period, the most consistent player was Doc Cramer, who from 1937 to 1939, had OPSs of .735, .734 and .734. His stats: Year Team G AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SF AVG SLG OBP OPS 1937 BOS A 133 560 171 22 11 0 35 4 0 .305 .384 .351 .735 1938 BOS A 148 658 198 36 8 0 51 3 0 .301 .380 .354 .734 1939 BOS A 137 589 183 30 6 0 36 2 0 .311 .382 .352 .734 Right behind him were Bobby Adams (1951 to 1953) and Graig Nettles (1972 to 1974). The most consistent excellent hitter was Kirk Gibson, who had an OPS of .863 in 1986 and followed that with seasons of .861 and .860. The least consistent hitter? Well, there isn't anyone even close to Gates Brown who from 1967 to 1969 had the following seasons: Year Team G AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SF AVG SLG OBP OPS 1967 DET A 51 91 17 1 1 2 13 0 1 .187 .286 .286 .572 1968 DET A 67 92 34 7 2 6 12 0 0 .370 .685 .442 1.127 1969 DET A 60 93 19 1 2 1 5 1 1 .204 .290 .250 .540 The average difference between these seasons was .571. The median average difference for players appearing in three consecutive seasons has been .072. Gates Brown's total was nearly eight times that. Walter Johnson was the next least consistent hitter, posting OPSs of .697, 1.032 and .489 from 1924 to 1926. The player with the biggest difference who averaged at least 400 plate appearances a year was Eric McNair from 1937 to 1939. He had two decent years (1937 and 1939) sandwiched around an injury-shortened bad year, when he had an OPS of .370 in exactly 100 plate appearances. Here are the most and least consistent players over 4-20 seasons: ------- Most Consistent -------- ------- Least Consistent ------
Name First-Last ADiff Name First-Last ADiff
4 Gary Matthews 1973-1976 .003 Gates Brown 1966-1969 .447
5 Gary Matthews 1973-1977 .003 Gates Brown 1967-1971 .390
6 Luis Aparicio 1956-1961 .007 Gates Brown 1967-1972 .369
7 Gary Matthews 1973-1979 .013 Gates Brown 1966-1972 .340
8 Luis Aparicio 1956-1963 .013 Gates Brown 1966-1973 .295
9 Patsy Donovan 1894-1902 .020 Gates Brown 1965-1973 .258
10 Patsy Donovan 1893-1902 .018 Gates Brown 1964-1973 .231
11 Patsy Donovan 1893-1903 .019 Gates Brown 1964-1974 .209
12 Doc Cramer 1936-1947 .021 Babe Ruth 1915-1926 .183
13 Doc Cramer 1935-1947 .026 Babe Ruth 1915-1927 .168
14 Doc Cramer 1934-1947 .026 Babe Ruth 1915-1928 .162
15 Doc Cramer 1933-1947 .027 Babe Ruth 1915-1929 .153
16 Doc Cramer 1932-1947 .031 Babe Ruth 1915-1930 .150
17 Graig Nettles 1969-1985 .038 Babe Ruth 1915-1931 .142
18 Graig Nettles 1970-1987 .041 Babe Ruth 1915-1932 .137
19 Graig Nettles 1969-1987 .042 Babe Ruth 1915-1933 .136
20 Graig Nettles 1969-1988 .048 Willie McCovey 1959-1978 .132
Where ADiff is the average difference between the OPSs from one season to the next. If you require an average of 400 plate appearances a season, Gates Brown is replaced on the "inconsistent" list by: Name First-Last ADiff 4 Eric McNair 1936-1939 .309 5 Roy Campanella 1952-1956 .266 6 Roy Campanella 1951-1956 .248 7 Roy Campanella 1950-1956 .218 8 Babe Ruth 1919-1926 .204 9 Babe Ruth 1918-1926 .197 10 Babe Ruth 1917-1926 .187 11 Babe Ruth 1916-1926 .180 One of the things this points up is that it's much easier to be consistent when you aren't a great hitter. And while I said at the start of this article that I've always been a fan of consistent hitters, perhaps it's time to reconsider that position. I think I'd take the "inconsistency" of a Babe Ruth, who posted OPSs of 1.358, 1.106, 1.309, 1.252, .936 and 1.253 from 1921 to 1926, over the reliable mediocrity of Doc Cramer, who produced OPSs of .709, .735, .734, .734, .724 and .655 from 1936 to 1941. Of course this is only one definition of consistency and it has some flaws. For one thing, it ignores playing time. So Doc Cramer (to continue picking on him) is the model of consistency according to my method from 1945 to 1946 when he had the following two seasons: Year Team G AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SF AVG SLG OBP OPS 1945 DET A 141 541 149 22 8 6 36 3 0 .275 .379 .324 .703 1946 DET A 68 204 60 8 2 1 15 0 0 .294 .368 .342 .710 Perhaps a better way to evaluate consistency is to see how similar one season is to the next. Bill James came up with a way to measure this in his 1986 Baseball Abstract. He called it Similarity Scores and used it to compare two seasons in the following manner: Start with 1000 points. Subtract a point for each difference of: 5 games, 20 at-bats, 3 runs, 5 hits, 1.5 doubles, 1 triple, .5 homers, 3 RBIs, 8 walks, 20 strikeouts, 2 stolen bases, 1 batting average point, 2 slugging percentage points. He also subtracted 12 points for each year of difference in the players' ages and 12 points for each 1 point difference in defensive position value (where a catcher gets a value of 10, shortstop 8, second baseman 7, center fielder 5, third baseman 4, right fielder 3, left fielder 2 and first baseman 1). In the scores below, I did not subtract points for either age or defensive position. Using his method, the player with the most similar back-to-back seasons was Gus Dorner from 1906 to 1907. Here are his totals for those two years: Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG
1906 CIN N-BOS N
36 105 5 14 0 0 0 1 2 - 1 .133 .133
1907 BOS N 36 92 3 12 0 0 0 3 3 - 0 .130 .130
These two years had a similarity score of 992.64. Gus was helped by two factors: a) he played before the NL kept track of strikeouts and b) he couldn't hit at all. He wasn't much better on the mound, going 8-26 and 12-16 during those two seasons. If you raise the requirement to an average of at least 400 plate appearances a year, the player at the top of the list was John Gochnauer from 1902 to 1903: Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG 1902 CLE A 127 459 45 85 16 4 0 37 38 - 7 .185 .237 1903 CLE A 134 438 48 81 16 4 0 48 48 - 10 .185 .240 Using that requirement, here are the ten most and least similar back-to-back seasons: ---------- Most Similar ----------- ---------- Least Similar ---------- Name First Last Sim-Sc Name First Last Sim-Sc John Gochnauer 1902-1903 987.95 Hack Wilson 1930-1931 548.95 Candy Nelson 1884-1885 987.58 Fred Dunlap 1884-1885 612.25 Red Kress 1930-1931 987.30 George Scott 1967-1968 625.31 Eddie Collins 1913-1914 986.08 Larry Walker 1996-1997 629.68 Randy Bush 1988-1989 985.51 Billy Shindle 1890-1891 634.92 Jackie Jensen 1954-1955 984.89 Ellis Burks 1995-1996 641.01 Ken Reitz 1975-1976 984.76 Snuffy Stirnweiss 1943-1944 644.42 Dickie Thon 1990-1991 983.78 Adam Comorosky 1930-1931 647.46 Vinny Castilla 1996-1997 983.51 Cito Gaston 1969-1970 647.72 Pedro Guerrero 1982-1983 983.44 Jeff Heath 1940-1941 647.92 Red Kress and Eddie Collins had the two most similar back-to-back good seasons. Here's what Red Kress' looked like: Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG 1930 STL A 154 614 94 192 43 8 16 112 50 56 3 .313 .487 1931 STL A 150 605 87 188 46 8 16 114 46 48 3 .311 .493 And Eddie Collins': Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG 1913 PHI A 148 534 125 184 23 13 3 73 85 37 55 .345 .453 1914 PHI A 152 526 122 181 23 14 2 85 97 31 58 .344 .452 Hack Wilson's appearance at the top of the least similar list is probably no surprise to anyone. His record during those years: Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG 1930 CHI N 155 585 146 208 35 6 56 190 105 84 3 .356 .723 1931 CHI N 112 395 66 103 22 4 13 61 63 69 1 .261 .435 Using this method, the most and least consistent players over a 3-20 year period are: --------- Most Similar --------- --------- Least Similar --------
Name First-Last ASimSc Name First-Last ASimSc
3 John Anderson 1902-1904 978.77 Babe Ruth 1924-1926 654.92
4 Jim Sundberg 1977-1980 970.60 Roy Campanella 1953-1956 699.24
5 Tom Jones 1906-1910 969.80 Roy Campanella 1952-1956 722.33
6 George McBride 1908-1913 968.23 Babe Ruth 1921-1926 739.71
7 George McBride 1909-1915 964.31 Roy Campanella 1950-1956 766.82
8 George McBride 1908-1915 965.98 Babe Ruth 1919-1926 770.22
9 George McBride 1908-1916 962.80 Babe Ruth 1918-1926 776.85
10 Ken Oberkfell 1979-1988 951.94 Babe Ruth 1918-1927 792.42
11 Lee May 1969-1979 948.09 Babe Ruth 1918-1928 803.98
12 Stuffy McInnis 1912-1923 944.99 Babe Ruth 1918-1929 814.41
13 Stuffy McInnis 1911-1923 945.40 Babe Ruth 1918-1930 824.20
14 Stuffy McInnis 1911-1924 944.19 Babe Ruth 1918-1931 833.54
15 Graig Nettles 1970-1984 935.50 Babe Ruth 1918-1932 837.54
16 Graig Nettles 1970-1985 935.01 Babe Ruth 1918-1933 839.73
17 Graig Nettles 1970-1986 932.37 Babe Ruth 1918-1934 843.90
18 Luis Aparicio 1956-1973 927.94 George Brett 1974-1991 853.67
19 Pete Rose 1965-1983 920.96 George Brett 1974-1992 857.64
20 Pete Rose 1965-1984 920.19 George Brett 1974-1993 860.71
Where ASimSc is the average Similarity Score from one season to the next. Many of the players on the most similar list played during a time when strikeouts totals for batters were not kept. If we only include players with strikeout totals, we end up with the following list. Name First-Last ASimSc 3 Ken Reitz 1974-1976 977.71 4 Jim Sundberg 1977-1980 970.60 5 Terry Steinbach 1991-1995 964.16 6 Don Kessinger 1971-1976 962.48 7 Don Kessinger 1970-1976 960.23 8 Don Kessinger 1969-1976 958.09 9 Lee May 1971-1979 954.49 10 Ken Oberkfell 1979-1988 951.94 11 Lee May 1969-1979 948.09 12 Doc Cramer 1933-1944 944.50 13 Doc Cramer 1933-1945 945.08 14 Doc Cramer 1932-1945 937.80 Seasons 15-20 were unchanged. Many of the people on the most consistent list were not top hitters. Doc Cramer, for example, averaged 2 home runs and 42 RBIs a season. Given these low numbers, how much could these statistics be expected to vary? If we include only those players with a least one 20+ homer, 90+ RBI season in the string, we get the following list: Name First-Last ASimSc 2 Jackie Jensen 1954-1955 984.89 3 Eddie Murray 1977-1979 976.29 4 Mike Schmidt 1984-1987 967.23 5 Mike Schmidt 1983-1987 961.43 6 Lee May 1974-1979 958.57 7 Lee May 1973-1979 957.94 8 Lee May 1972-1979 957.12 9 Lee May 1971-1979 954.49 10 Lee May 1970-1979 950.52 11 Lee May 1969-1979 948.09 12 Lee May 1968-1979 943.90 13 Lee May 1967-1979 939.52 14 Graig Nettles 1970-1983 936.44 15 Graig Nettles 1970-1984 935.50 16 Graig Nettles 1970-1985 935.01 17 Graig Nettles 1970-1986 932.37 18 Eddie Murray 1977-1994 916.49 19 Eddie Murray 1977-1995 913.35 20 Eddie Murray 1977-1996 910.68 What about players posting similar seasons at the opposite ends of their careers? Here are the players posting the ten highest similarity scores at least ten years apart: Name First Last SimSc 16 Eddie Murray 1977 1993 984.04 11 Eddie Murray 1977 1988 982.43 10 Chris Chambliss 1971 1981 979.95 10 Eddie Murray 1978 1988 978.96 12 Al Lopez 1931 1943 977.94 10 Max Bishop 1924 1934 976.46 15 Eddie Murray 1978 1993 975.49 10 Cal Ripken 1986 1996 974.99 12 Larry Bowa 1970 1982 974.92 11 Bob Boone 1974 1985 973.26 But what about if we compare ALL seasons to each other. What two seasons, by either the same or different players, were the most similar? Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG George Creamer 1884 98 339 38 62 8 5 0 - 16 - - .183 .236 Joe Miller 1885 98 339 44 62 9 5 0 - 28 - - .183 .239 The last major league season by these two players resulted in the highest Similarity Score, 994.36. Of course, we're missing three statisitical categories here: RBIs, strikeouts and stolen bases. The most similar seasons where all the statisical information is included (993.50): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Joe Orsulak 1990 124 413 49 111 14 3 11 57 46 48 6 .269 .397 Kevin Seitzer 1993 120 417 45 112 16 2 11 57 44 48 7 .269 .396 The most similar seasons of 500 or more at-bats (991.93): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Bill Tuttle 1956 140 546 61 138 22 4 9 65 38 48 5 .253 .357 Frank Bolling 1960 139 536 64 136 20 4 9 59 40 48 7 .254 .356 With 20 or more home runs (990.75): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Albert Belle 1992 153 585 81 152 23 1 34 112 52 128 8 .260 .477 Eric Karros 1996 154 608 84 158 29 1 34 111 53 121 8 .260 .479 With 40 or more home runs (at least one) (984.89): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Wally Post 1955 154 601 116 186 33 3 40 109 60 102 7 .309 .574 Hank Aaron 1967 155 600 113 184 37 3 39 109 63 97 17 .307 .573 With 40 or more home runs (both) (984.77): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Gil Hodges 1954 154 579 106 176 23 5 42 130 74 84 3 .304 .579 Roy Sievers 1957 152 572 99 172 23 5 42 114 76 55 1 .301 .579 With 50 or more home runs (975.03): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Ralph Kiner 1947 152 565 118 177 23 4 51 127 98 81 1 .313 .639 Willie Mays 1965 157 558 118 177 21 3 52 112 76 71 9 .317 .645 With 180 or more hits (989.55): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Billy Southworth 1923 153 611 95 195 29 16 6 78 61 23 14 .319 .448 Charlie Gehringer 1928 154 603 108 193 29 16 6 74 69 22 15 .320 .451 With 200 or more hits (986.00): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Dave Bancroft 1922 156 651 117 209 41 5 4 60 79 27 16 .321 .418 Fresco Thompson 1929 148 623 115 202 41 3 4 53 75 34 16 .324 .419 With 50 or more stolen bases (986.08): Name Year G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Eddie Collins 1913 148 534 125 184 23 13 3 73 85 37 55 .345 .453 Eddie Collins 1914 152 526 122 181 23 14 2 85 97 31 58 .344 .452 You can also use a modified version of Bill James' formula to compare careers. Once again, start with 1000 points. This time, subtract a point for each difference of: 20 games, 75 at-bats, 10 runs, 15 hits, 5 doubles, 4 triples, 3 homers, 10 RBIs, 25 walks, 150 strikeouts, 20 stolen bases, 1 batting average point, 2 slugging percentage points. His defensive penalty, which we will continue to ignore, remains the same. Using the formula, what two players (3000 plate appearances minimum) had the most similar careers? Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Clint Courtney 946 2796 260 750 126 17 38 313 264 143 3 .268 .366 Bill Stein 959 2811 268 751 122 18 44 311 186 413 16 .267 .370 Which was good for a score of 986.34. The most similar careers with 6000 or more career plate appearances (974.88): Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Hubie Brooks 1645 5974 656 1608 290 31 149 824 387 1005 64 .269 .403 Willie Montanez 1632 5843 645 1604 279 25 139 802 465 751 32 .275 .402 Others not far behind Brooks and Montanez: SimSc Name Name 968.74 John Mayberry Andy Thornton 968.51 Jeff Burroughs John Mayberry 968.08 Sparky Adams Dave Cash 966.91 Leo Cardenas Tony Pena 963.17 Dolph Camilli Larry Doby 963.05 Joe Gordon Bill Nicholson 962.80 Fred Lynn Reggie Smith 962.17 Jim Gantner Cookie Rojas 962.04 Baby Doll Jacobson Freddy Lindstrom 961.83 Sherm Lollar Pete O'Brien 961.79 Buck Herzog Bill Wambsganss 961.22 Whitey Lockman Jimmy Piersall 961.08 Gus Bell Andy Pafko 960.83 Billy Jurges Cookie Rojas 960.62 Rico Carty Pedro Guerrero 960.40 Al Cowens Granny Hamner 959.58 Tim Foli Everett Scott 959.44 Marty Marion Luke Sewell 959.31 Eddie Foster Ivy Olson The most similar careers with 8000 or more career plate appearances (955.29): Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Gary Carter 2296 7971 1025 2092 371 31 324 1225 848 997 39 .262 .439 Gary Gaetti 2261 8227 1048 2101 400 37 332 1224 570 1486 95 .255 .434 Others behind Carter and Gaetti: SimSc Name Name 954.90 Dusty Baker Gary Matthews 954.01 Chili Davis Ron Santo 950.01 Dusty Baker Ken Singleton 949.72 Dick Bartell Wally Moses 947.58 Dusty Baker George Scott 947.17 Bobby Doerr Bob Elliott 945.75 Bob Boone Chris Speier 945.65 Doc Cramer Nellie Fox 943.21 Don Baylor Gary Carter 942.89 Cesar Cedeno Amos Otis 942.42 Gary Matthews Ken Singleton 939.84 Julio Franco Ken Griffey 939.13 Darrell Evans Graig Nettles 938.87 Johnny Bench Dale Murphy 936.85 Jimmy Dykes Joe Kuhel 936.23 Gary Matthews Amos Otis 935.82 Willie Horton Lee May 933.61 Sal Bando Ron Fairly 933.25 Don Baylor Gary Gaetti The most similar careers with 500 or more home runs (927.85): Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Eddie Mathews 2391 8537 1509 2315 354 72 512 1453 1444 1487 68 .271 .509 Mike Schmidt 2404 8352 1506 2234 408 59 548 1595 1507 1883 174 .267 .527 The most similar careers with 3000 or more hits (923.65): Name G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG SLG Eddie Murray 3026 11336 1627 3255 560 35 504 1917 1333 1516 110 .287 .476 Dave Winfield 2973 11003 1669 3110 540 88 465 1833 1216 1686 223 .283 .475 Often, one of the things that distinguishes great players is the uniqueness of their talents. Here are the closest comparisions to some of the games best offensive players: Name SimSc Name Babe Ruth 708.32 Willie Mays Ty Cobb 760.58 Tris Speaker Ted Williams 896.58 Lou Gehrig Hank Aaron 806.33 Willie Mays Lou Gehrig 896.58 Ted Williams Stan Musial 792.69 Willie Mays Mickey Mantle 886.76 Eddie Mathews Rogers Hornsby 886.03 Al Simmons Willie Mays 855.05 Frank Robinson Tris Speaker 845.80 Honus Wagner Frank Robinson 910.03 Mel Ott Mel Ott 910.03 Frank Robinson Jimmie Foxx 893.40 Lou Gehrig Honus Wagner 853.94 Cap Anson Eddie Collins 820.29 Paul Waner Eddie Mathews 927.85 Mike Schmidt Nap Lajoie 873.09 Paul Waner Mike Schmidt 927.85 Eddie Mathews Willie McCovey 920.23 Eddie Mathews Reggie Jackson 865.13 Mike Schmidt Not surprisingly, Babe Ruth is the hardest player to find a match for. And his comparision to Willie Mays gets even weaker when we factor in their respective pitching records. The Doc Cramer and Nellie Fox pairing brings to mind something James wrote in his essay back in 1986. In addition to comparing seasons, he also devised a method for comparing careers and the closest comp to Nellie Fox was Doc Cramer. He then went on to ask the question: "why should Fox be in the Hall of Fame when Cramer is not?" He admitted that there were certain differences between the two. Among these were the fact that Fox played second base and Cramer centerfield and that Cramer posted his offensive totals during the thirties and Fox the fifties. The reason I bring this up is that while looking at Total Player Rating in the 1994 edition of Total Baseball, I noticed that while Fox had a rating of 11.9 (which is intended to be the wins above average over the course of his career, good enough for a tie for 500th place on the all-time list), Doc Cramer was dead last with a rating of -28.9. No one was even close, with Joe Quinn at -24.6 a distant second. Now, I've always considered the fielding component of TPR to be its weak link, but Cramer does alright (plus 19 runs) in that category. The reason for the extremely low ranking, especially for a player considered by James to be a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate, is that while Fox's offensive numbers were pretty decent for a second baseman in the fifties, those same numbers were awful for a centerfielder in the thirties. In a lot of ways, his long career was a product of an age when batting average was one of the few statistics published on a regular basis. He hit .300 or better eight times and so was able to hang around for 20 years. The fact that he seldom walked and had almost no power didn't seem to be held against him. Tom Ruane |
|
Comments or SuggestionsThanks for visiting the BasebaLL Think Factory. For information about contributing, to make a comment or suggestion, or to report a problem at my WWW site, please complete my Feedback Form. If your browser does not support forms, send e-mail to webguru@baseballstuff.com. |
|
|
Original material Copyright © 1996-1999
BasebaLL
Think
Factory |
|
Back to the top of page | Baseball Scholars | Baseball Think Factory | BaseballStuff.com |