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Monday, August 28, 2006

Defensive Rankings by Position- AL - Aug 27

AL Defense through August 27

The following data represent the defensive rankings for the American League players by position, with a minimum of 500 innings played. RSpt is Runs Saved for the playing time of the player above average for that much playing time. RS/150 is how many runs that would be in 150 games played. This is explained in the methodology here.

Catcher

Pos	NAME	LAST	TEAM	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
2	Ivan	Rodrig'z	Det	94	811.3	8	13
2	Ramon	Hern'ndz	Bal	111	905.3	5	7
2	Jose	Molina	LAA	60	492.0	3	9
2	Joe	Mauer	Min	97	858.7	3	5
2	Jorge	Posada	NYY	109	852.3	3	4
2	Jason	Kendall	Oak	110	984.3	2	3
2	John	Buck	KC	94	783.0	2	4
2	Rod	Barajas	Tex	87	758.7	2	4
2	Kenji	Johjima	Sea	117	928.0	0	1
2	Mike	Napoli	LAA	75	569.3	0	0
2	Jason	Varitek	Bos	82	687.3	-1	-2
2	Toby	Hall	TB	61	494.0	-1	-3
2	A.J.	P'rzynski	CWS	106	906.3	-5	-8
2	Bengie	Molina	Tor	81	690.3	-6	-12
2	Victor	Martinez	Cle	105	879.3	-7	-11

Wow, Ivan Rodriguez is the best defensive catcher in the AL.  Who knew?

First Base

Pos	NAME	LAST	TEAM	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
3	Chris	Shelton	Det	102	867.0	14	22
3	Doug	Mientkie'z	KC	90	725.7	7	13
3	Justin	Morneau	Min	123	1084.7	5	6
3	Travis	Lee	TB	108	842.3	3	5
3	Andy	Phillips	NYY	78	498.0	3	8
3	Mark	Teixeira	Tex	129	1128.7	2	3
3	Dan	Johnson	Oak	69	612.7	1	3
3	Lyle	Overbay	Tor	113	976.3	0	0
3	Ben	Broussard	Cle/Sea	85	599.7	-1	-2
3	Nick	Swisher	Oak	64	510.3	-1	-3
3	Kevin	Youkilis	Bos	115	951.0	-1	-1
3	Kevin	Millar	Bal	75	596.3	-4	-8
3	Richie	Sexson	Sea	122	1067.7	-6	-8
3	Paul	Konerko	CWS	114	961.7	-7	-9

Shelton got sent down as his bat crashed.  He had some value the Tigers must not have seen.  And Doug Mxyzptlk right near the top.

Second Base

Pos	NAME	Last	Team	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
4	Aaron	Hill	Tor	87	753.3	16	29
4	Placido	Polanco	Det	102	888.0	14	22
4	Mark	Ellis	Oak	92	792.3	8	14
4	Brian	Roberts	Bal	106	916.7	6	9
4	Mark	Grudz'lnk	KC	114	954.0	6	9
4	Jose	Lopez	Sea	120	1059.3	1	2
4	Ian	Kinsler	Tex	89	762.7	-1	-1
4	Tadahito	Iguchi	CWS	108	965.7	-1	-1
4	Robinson	Cano	NYY	88	764.0	-2	-3
4	Luis	Castillo	Min	116	1014.3	-5	-6
4	Adam	Kennedy	LAA	108	924.3	-5	-8
4	Mark	Loretta	Bos	120	1036.0	-6	-8
4	Ronnie	Belliard	Cle	91	768.3	-10	-17
4	Jorge	Cantu	TB	79	692.0	-17	-32

Aaron Hill?  Maybe the turf in Toronto helps, considering Orlando Hudson’s slide in Arizona.  Placido Polanco - he’s good.  Well, he has been.  Jorge Cantu is the worst fielder in the majors.  He’s bad all over the field.

Third Base

Pos	NAME	Last	Team	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
5	Mike	Lowell	Bos	121	1030.7	17	22
5	Brandon	Inge	Det	127	1112.0	17	20
5	Adrian	Beltre	Sea	125	1099.3	10	12
5	Joe	Crede	CWS	123	1038.3	4	5
5	Eric	Chavez	Oak	108	949.0	2	3
5	Aubrey	Huff	TB	60	480.7	2	4
5	Hank	Blalock	Tex	113	980.7	1	1
5	Nick	Punto	Min	59	502.0	-1	-2
5	Melvin	Mora	Bal	126	1087.0	-2	-2
5	Maicer	Izturis	LAA	60	470.0	-3	-8
5	Aaron	Boone	Cle	96	806.0	-3	-5
5	Troy	Glaus	Tor	114	943.3	-5	-8
5	Mark	Teahen	KC	100	845.7	-6	-9
5	Tony	Batista	Min	50	434.0	-7	-21
5	Alex	Rodrig'z	NYY	123	1062.7	-10	-12

Mike Lowell and Brandon Inge still leading the pack, and A-Rod sinking lower.  There are nearly three wins the Red Sox have picked up on teh Yankees just on defense at third.

Shortstop

Pos	NAME	Last	Team	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
6	Juan	Uribe	CWS	105	892.3	12	18
6	Bobby	Crosby	Oak	95	828.0	7	11
6	Alex	Gonzalez	Bos	96	843.3	5	9
6	Jason	Bartlett	Min	65	582.0	4	10
6	Jhonny	Peralta	Cle	120	1038.7	2	3
6	Carlos	Guillen	Det	119	1024.0	2	3
6	Michael	Young	Tex	127	1106.0	1	2
6	John	McDonald	Tor	63	486.0	1	2
6	Julio	Lugo	TB	73	620.3	0	1
6	Miguel	Tejada	Bal	120	1041.7	0	0
6	Orlando	Cabrera	LAA	124	1075.3	-1	-2
6	Derek	Jeter	NYY	120	1041.3	-5	-7
6	Yuniesky	Bet'nco'rt	Sea	127	1114.7	-6	-8
6	Angel	Berroa	KC	112	953.3	-8	-11

White Sox fans have been wanting to see Uribe at the top of the list.  He’s made it.  Derek Jeter, for all the guff he takes, isn’t too bad this season.  He might win his third Gold Glove.

Left Field

Pos	NAME	LAST	Team	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
7	Carl	Crawford,	TB	122	1048.7	8	10
7	Emil	Brown,	KC	81	671.0	7	14
7	Scott	Podsednik	CWS	114	912.0	6	8
7	Reed	Johnson,	Tor	78	513.7	4	11
7	Nick	Swisher,	Oak	65	573.7	3	8
7	Raul	Ibanez,	Sea	124	1103.0	3	4
7	Jason	Michaels,	Cle	95	825.3	1	1
7	Craig	Monroe,	Det	83	674.3	1	1
7	Garret	Anderson	LAA	79	681.7	-2	-4
7	Frank	Cat'l'notto	Tor	82	610.0	-3	-7
7	Melky	Cabrera,	NYY	88	777.0	-4	-6
7	Brad	Wilkerson	Tex	80	664.3	-5	-10
7	Manny	Ramirez,	Bos	118	987.3	-30	-41

I see the Manny score, and we know that has a big park effect.  Just cover one eye.  Everyone else looks good. 

Center Field

Pos	NAME	Last	Team	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
8	Corey	Patterson	Bal	118	958.0	14	19
8	Torii	Hunter	Min	109	942.7	7	10
8	Vernon	Wells	Tor	117	1012.7	7	9
8	Chone	Figgins	LAA	71	607.7	5	11
8	Brian	Anderson	CWS	105	754.3	4	7
8	Grady	Sizemore	Cle	127	1094.7	4	5
8	Curtis	Grandrsn	Det	125	1037.0	2	3
8	Joey	Gathright,	KC/TB	104	810.7	1	2
8	Rocco	Baldelli	TB	61	507.0	0	-1
8	Johnny	Damon	NYY	107	899.7	0	-1
8	Jeremy	Reed	Sea	64	507.3	-1	-4
8	Mark	Kotsay	Oak	108	907.3	-4	-6
8	Coco	Crisp	Bos	86	757.7	-6	-11
8	Gary	Matthews	Tex	112	958.7	-6	-9

Corey Patterson in climbing the charts as one of the top defensive CFs over the last 20 years.

Right Field

Pos	NAME	LAST	TEAM	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
9	Ichiro	Suzuki	Sea	121	1062.7	7	8
9	Alex	Rios	Tor	95	759.3	6	11
9	Milton	Bradley	Oak	64	555.0	6	14
9	Reggie	Sanders	KC	73	601.0	6	13
9	Casey	Blake	Cle	74	646.3	3	6
9	Nick	Markakis	Bal	95	641.3	0	-1
9	Michael	Cuddyer	Min	109	938.7	-1	-1
9	Magglio	Ordonez	Det	117	1023.0	-1	-1
9	Trot	Nixon	Bos	89	716.7	-3	-5
9	Vladimir	Guerrero	LAA	109	933.7	-4	-6
9	Jermaine	Dye	CWS	117	998.3	-6	-7

Finally, Ichiro Suzuki is going to be the best fielding RF in the AL when he wins a Gold Glove.  That’s been annoying the last few years.


There are the AL leaders and trailers of the regular starters.  When you start your MVP arguments, you have some data to go for defense.  Oh, in 68 innings, David Ortiz is a zero (average).

 

Chris Dial Posted: August 28, 2006 at 03:37 AM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. philly Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#2159075)
The Red Sox supposedly great defense is Lowell, Gonzalez and 7 negatives. Pretty beleivable unfortunately.

Wily Mo Pena must be pretty close to the 500 IP cutoff in either RF or CF or both. Could you post his numbers just so we can get the full effect of the suck that is the Sox OF defense.
   2. Chris Dial Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:20 AM (#2159076)
Wily Mo is near 500 total. He's only got 150 IP in CF and 250 in RF. He's about -2 for the season overall.
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:33 AM (#2159082)
Corey Patterson in climbing the charts as one of the top defensive CFs over the last 20 years.


Ya gotta figure that, if there's a dumb move to be made, Hendry is on it like white on rice.
   4. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:48 AM (#2159089)
So Posednik's a good fielder?

Adding up totals of all listed players be team (leaving out two-team players Brosourd and Gastright) here's how the AL teams stack up. In parathesis is number of players listed for each team. No, I'm not going to add up innings fielded.

1) Detroit +57 (8)
2) Oakland +22 (9)
3) Toronto +20 (9)
4t) Baltimore +19 (7)
4t) Chicago +19 (8)
6) Kansas City +14 (7)
7) Seattle +8 (8)
8) Minnesota +5 (8)
9) Tampa Bay -5 (7)
10) Texas -6 (7)
11) Anaheim -7 (8)
12) Cleveland -10 (7)
13) New York -15 (7)
14) Boston -25 (8)

Numbers here are RSpt, not R/150. The difference between 8th and 14th is Manny Rameriz.
   5. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:56 AM (#2159092)
Anaheim is something like 5th in DER as calculated by Baseball Prospectus. But they're not very good here, and they've given up a lot of unearned runs. Not sure what this means.
   6. DKDC Posted: August 28, 2006 at 05:32 AM (#2159104)
Brandon Fahey should be pretty close to 500 innings - how does he look in LF? Not that it's going to be enough to make up for his anemic bat, but I'm curious.
   7. Norcan Posted: August 28, 2006 at 07:44 AM (#2159128)
Is Jorge Cantu even the worst defender on his own team because Ty Wigginton is as bad as I've seen. And what is up with Aubrey Huff having a positive rating at third base?

The Miguel Tejada number is pretty surprising. Ever since spring training, scouts have been quoted as saying that he's turned into a DH and is killing the Orioles on defense. Who knows what to think.
   8. dcsmyth1 Posted: August 28, 2006 at 11:24 AM (#2159139)
I watched C Patterson every day for a few seasons when he was with the Cubs. I'm taking his rating here with a huge grain of salt.
   9. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:32 PM (#2159161)
The difference between 8th and 14th is Manny Rameriz.

If Manny is a zero. He's probably a little worse. The Sox could easily be average.

The Miguel Tejada number is pretty surprising. Ever since spring training, scouts have been quoted as saying that he's turned into a DH and is killing the Orioles on defense. Who knows what to think.

Tejada was considered a good fielder before. Compared to his former self, he may well look like he is "killing the O's" on defense.
   10. Erik A Posted: August 28, 2006 at 12:51 PM (#2159169)
Chris, first off, great job on this stuff. Really good read. Regarding Tejada and the SS rankings in general, I think it is very possible that Tejada is having a poor defensive season yet still showing up as average overall. The fact that all players are compared to the league average means that the league can improve or decline defensively in a given season and impact all current players. Looking at the ZR numbers on ESPN, the AL averages look to be brought down by Juan Castro, Marco Scutaro, Aaron Hill, and Angel Berroa, 3 of whom are not full time shortstops anymore.

I actually first noticed this trend for LF, where there are some historically bad ZR performances this season (at least before adjusting for park). Manny, Matsui, Dunn, Preston Wilson, and Josh Willingham have all put up atrocious numbers this year. Last year, only one qualified LFer put up a ZR below 0.821 (Manny with his crazy park factor, plus Reggie Sanders in limited playing time). This year there are 4, plus Matsui and Wilkerson in limited playing time.

I may have missed this in your discussion of your methodology, but have you considered using a multi-year average at each position to reduce season-to-season variation in league defensive ability?
   11. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 28, 2006 at 01:00 PM (#2159173)
Tejada looked really bad early on...apparently his knee was bothering him. He's looked better over the last few weeks.
   12. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: August 28, 2006 at 01:17 PM (#2159184)
I may have missed this in your discussion of your methodology, but have you considered using a multi-year average at each position to reduce season-to-season variation in league defensive ability?

We haven't spent much time discussing that, and until we had this great database SG provided, the feasibility wasn't as simple. As we develop a good historical norm, I think that warrants investigation. However, for OPS+, we adjust to a yearly baseline, so I think that is likely to win out.

Alternate read?
   13. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: August 28, 2006 at 01:27 PM (#2159190)
Wily Mo is near 500 total. He's only got 150 IP in CF and 250 in RF. He's about -2 for the season overall.

Are his rate stats very different for CF vs RF (sample size considerations notwithstanding)?
   14. Erik A Posted: August 28, 2006 at 01:35 PM (#2159194)
Alternate read?


Well, the OPS+ convention is to use a yearly baseline, but I would argue that the situations are not completely analogous. League OPS is a function both of the quality of hitters and pitchers in the league. An overall change in LgOPS is hard to credit to the hitters or pitchers. ZR by contrast is "supposed to be" (I am sure you are much more familiar than I with the truth of that statement) a measure of the fraction of balls that were fielded. Assuming a relatively constant definition of zones, a league-wide change in ZR is likely to be due to the changing quality of MLB fielders.
   15. AROM Posted: August 28, 2006 at 01:38 PM (#2159195)
Anaheim is something like 5th in DER as calculated by Baseball Prospectus. But they're not very good here, and they've given up a lot of unearned runs. Not sure what this means.

Zone rating and DER will correlate well, but its never going to be a perfect match. DER will count every ball, ZR excludes grounders hit up the middle, through the holes, flyballs in the gaps, and a lot of line drives (though unfortunately still includes hits off the monstah).

Also, this only includes the guys with the most innings, not all Angel fielders. All the 1B have fielded well, except for Kendrick, and Erstad was a plus in center before he got hurt.

The Angels have hurt themselves on defense by making probably 1-2 dumb plays every game. Some of the mistakes show up in ZR (and DER) but some don't.

An example of one that doesn't show up: One out, runners on 1st and 3rd, grounder hit to SS. OC fields it, and instead of flipping to Kennedy takes 4-5 steps to make the play at 2B himself, then throws to first. He gets the out at 1st, but Coco Crisp is safe at 2B and the run scores. Stupid play, costs us a run and a ballgame, but by ZR or DER it shows up as: 1 groundball, 1 out recorded.
   16. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 28, 2006 at 01:42 PM (#2159196)
When Wily Mo was in Cincinnati he looked more than adequate in centerfield but at times would get completely lost in a corner outfield role. Wrong first step, bad routes on balls, and general calamities. In centerfield he was just fine.

Nobody could make sense of it in Cincy and with Jr. around he wasn't going to play there anyway.

But for Red Sox fans who wonder if this is just a Fenway Park thing it isn't. As counterintuitive as this appears, I think the Sox would be served to stick Wily in centerfield.
   17. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:05 PM (#2159208)
AMBA,
I like it. We'll bat it around in these threads, and I'll take a look at the numbers with, say, a 3-yr avg. It would help too - finding the league average each year is a pain, so every standardization is helpful.
   18. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:19 PM (#2159212)
Note: pumping this into Excel makes it much more readable.
   19. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:30 PM (#2159218)
My apologies, Dr. M. I am working on html tables for your reading pleasure.
   20. Hungry Hungry Hipolito Pichardo Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:48 PM (#2159226)
Harvey: That's what I was wondering about. Limited observation this season seems consistent with that take, but I'm wary of confirmatory bias in this case.

If he COULD play a passable CF, it would open up a lot of options for that team, especially with a Pena/Crisp CF/RF discussed here before that could be a net positive at both positions from what they're running out there now.

Or they could play Wily Mo in CF and find a corner OF who could actually hit.
   21. sptaylor Posted: August 28, 2006 at 02:52 PM (#2159231)
I'm surprised at the Gary Matthews, Jr. rating. Watching him this year, I've been impressed with his speed, quickness, glove, and release. In fact, I would have said that he's having his best season ever with the glove.
   22. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: August 28, 2006 at 03:40 PM (#2159273)
My apologies, Dr. M. I am working on html tables for your reading pleasure.

N.p., most anyone can do the Excel thing, that's why I pointed it out. IIWY I wouldn't lift a finger.

OTOH, if you wanted to update them, like, weekly, and publish that... 8-)
   23. Scoriano Flitcraft Posted: August 28, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2159279)
I have Jeter's offense at approx 407 RCAP for his career, which IIRC is 6th for SS's. What is his career (RS)?
   24. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: August 28, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2159284)
Texas doesn't have a single solidly above average defender.
   25. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2159290)
So Posednik's a good fielder?

No.
   26. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: August 28, 2006 at 04:25 PM (#2159318)
So Posednik's a good fielder?

No.


Good enough for LF.
   27. The Mighty Quinn Posted: August 28, 2006 at 05:10 PM (#2159387)
Chris I quite like your ratings. A couple of questions/ comments.

Regarding Aaron Hill how does turning the double play factor into the equation? My own subjective viewpoint is that he's outstanding at this facet of the game. Also there seems to be a lot of sample size brittleness with players below a certain innings threshold.

Great work overall, I've really enjoyed these articles.
   28. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: August 28, 2006 at 05:15 PM (#2159399)
Texas doesn't have a single solidly above average defender.

I thought Teixeira had quite a good defensive reputation?
   29. AROM Posted: August 28, 2006 at 05:40 PM (#2159440)
Double plays do not factor into zone rating, at least not anymore.
   30. Jim Wisinski Posted: August 28, 2006 at 05:43 PM (#2159445)
Is Jorge Cantu even the worst defender on his own team because Ty Wigginton is as bad as I've seen. And what is up with Aubrey Huff having a positive rating at third base?

Wigginton hasn't been too bad this season, Cantu has definitely been worse. Huff was surprisingly not sucky at 3B, when he was allowed the chance in the spring to reclaim his old position he seemed to really take to it and was noticeably better than he has been in the past.
   31. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: August 28, 2006 at 06:51 PM (#2159525)
I have Jeter's offense at approx 407 RCAP for his career, which IIRC is 6th for SS's. What is his career (RS)?

Patience, my pretty. We'll have a piece for all teh key players.
   32. Srul Itza Posted: August 28, 2006 at 09:23 PM (#2159647)
Wow, Ivan Rodriguez is the best defensive catcher in the AL. Who knew?

Is this honest wonderment or slight snarkiness? I apologize that I cannot tell.

The reason I ask is I thought I had that Pudge was having an amazing year controlling the running game. I do not remember if that is one of the aspects of our catcher defense ratings.
   33. Srul Itza Posted: August 28, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2159652)
I thought I had that

By which I meant, of course, "I thought I heard that"

our catcher defense ratings.

By which I meant, of course, Your catcher defense ratings.
   34. Scoriano Flitcraft Posted: August 29, 2006 at 01:03 AM (#2159783)
Patience, my pretty. We'll have a piece for all teh key players.


But will you get the h and e keys right? :)

I feel pretty! I feel pretty!
   35. Chris Dial Posted: August 29, 2006 at 01:04 AM (#2159787)
Srul, it's sarcasm. Pudge is usually a top catcher. He completely dominates the running game.
   36. Chris Dial Posted: August 29, 2006 at 01:09 AM (#2159789)
Are his rate stats very different for CF vs RF (sample size considerations notwithstanding)?


His innings are too few. But he's a -5 in RF and a -8 in CF. But those numbers have more noise than signal.
   37. b Posted: August 29, 2006 at 01:37 PM (#2160086)
Melky/Damon/Abreu vs. Matsui/Bernie/Shef...not much of a contest.
   38. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: August 29, 2006 at 06:55 PM (#2160534)
I watched C Patterson every day for a few seasons when he was with the Cubs. I'm taking his rating here with a huge grain of salt.

I watched C Patterson every day for a few seasons when he was with the Cubs. I agree whole-heartedly with these numbers for him.
   39. Minus Ice Posted: August 29, 2006 at 09:27 PM (#2160667)
Chris, is your system a PBP system like UZR, Dewan's Fielding Bible and Pinto's PMR ?
   40. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: August 29, 2006 at 09:34 PM (#2160674)
Texas doesn't have a single solidly above average defender.

Yet that one highlight reel catch has apparently convinced the DFW sports media that Gary Matthews is a great CF worthy of a multi-year contract committment.
   41. Buddha Posted: August 29, 2006 at 10:00 PM (#2160692)
Polanco? Great fielder. Inge? Great fielder. Irod? Great fielder?

Shelton? Not a great fielder. Not a good fielder. He's adequate. He must be getting helped out a lot by Polanco, because Shelton can't move. He can't dive. He doesn't stretch for balls thrown to him at 1B (see large number of errors for Inge and Guillen). But if you hit it at him, he's probably going to get a glove on it.
   42. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: August 29, 2006 at 10:23 PM (#2160708)
Gary Mathews Jr actually looks pretty good to the naked eye, at least in the games I've seen him. I'm a bit surprised by his rating here.
   43. Spivey Posted: August 29, 2006 at 10:38 PM (#2160718)
Matthews takes terrible routes to the ball. He's also not quite as fast as I'd like to see from a CF.
   44. SG Posted: August 29, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2160721)
For his career, Matthews Jr. is almost exactly average in CF, so this year's kind of atypical, although it could be age catching up to him.
   45. Chris Dial Posted: August 30, 2006 at 02:50 AM (#2160942)
Chris, is your system a PBP system like UZR, Dewan's Fielding Bible and Pinto's PMR ?

Yes.
   46. Chris Dial Posted: August 30, 2006 at 02:51 AM (#2160943)
He must be getting helped out a lot by Polanco, because Shelton can't move.

That won't matter in his ZR. He converts GBs hit to first into outs.
   47. Buddha Posted: August 30, 2006 at 06:18 PM (#2161668)
That won't matter in his ZR. He converts GBs hit to first into outs.

Like I said: "But if you hit it at him, he's probably going to get a glove on it."
   48. AROM Posted: August 30, 2006 at 06:35 PM (#2161734)
Chris, is your system a PBP system like UZR, Dewan's Fielding Bible and Pinto's PMR ?

And unlike those systems, you can calculate it yourself, since zone rating is available on the ESPN and CNNSI stat sites.
   49. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: August 30, 2006 at 06:56 PM (#2161788)
Like I said: "But if you hit it at him, he's probably going to get a glove on it."

But that's the same criterion other 1B are judged on, and they are worse at that. So how do you describe him as "adequate"?
   50. Minus Ice Posted: August 30, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2161989)
Chris - Cool, but I suspect that it's not as accurate as it should be considering the fact that your limitations are simply the recorded data. If they would get their scorers an stopwatch to calculate hang time, or time to fielder, etc, we can improve the measure greatly. A camera system that tracks the positions of the fielder, and the movement of the ball and fielder to the ball would be ideal. I've heard that this is in place in some stadiums, and this data will be limited to a handful of analysts.
   51. Foghorn Leghorn Posted: August 31, 2006 at 01:53 PM (#2162926)
If they would get their scorers an stopwatch to calculate hang time, or time to fielder, etc, we can improve the measure greatly. A camera system that tracks the positions of the fielder, and the movement of the ball and fielder to the ball would be ideal. I've heard that this is in place in some stadiums, and this data will be limited to a handful of analysts.

Minus,
I agree it would be *more* accurate, but I don't know that we'll see "great" improvement. We are very likely very close. That is to say, when we say Vizquel saves 350 runs, compared to 340 runs for an average fielder, bettering the method for him may mean 1 or 2 runs, which is only improving about 1-2%.

The OF will likely see some more improvement, but it is probably just going to be about 5% - still just 3 runs. We aren't likely to see changes like the difference between Chipper traditional and Chipper ZR (~200 runs) - Manny would be some exception, but I think most ZR methods know that is an issue, whereas people using traditional stats for a basis (FRAA, DSG, whatever) actually think Chipper may not be a HOF player because of a terrible, horrible misuse of defensive analysis.

And for Manny, MGL and joe arthur have taken some great strides in working on park effects for walls too close in.

I htink we'll also see some changes in the OF like Andruw's BIP selection or Steve Finley as "only good hands, weak range". In these cases, we're looking at marginal increases, not orders of magnitude. Refinement as compared to overhaul.
   52. RollingWave Posted: September 01, 2006 at 03:59 AM (#2164296)
Watching Melky Cabrera he seems pretty solid... good arm and range, he did seem a little lost early in the season though... is his rating a manifest of early season struggles or a Jeter like defense?
   53. Scott565 Posted: September 01, 2006 at 09:04 PM (#2165008)
Chris,

When you make an observation like you did regarding 3rd Basemen and how Boston has picked up 3 games over the NYY based on defense, how do you arrive at the 3 game figure?

Thanks,

Scott
   54. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: September 01, 2006 at 09:08 PM (#2165012)
When you make an observation like you did regarding 3rd Basemen and how Boston has picked up 3 games over the NYY based on defense, how do you arrive at the 3 game figure?


Lowell is +17, Arod is -10 for a difference of 27. A win is approximately 10 runs - so that's almost 3 wins from the 3B defense alone.
   55. Scott565 Posted: September 01, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#2165044)
Dan,

Thanks for the info, it is much appreciated.

Scott
   56. Chris Dial Posted: September 02, 2006 at 12:11 AM (#2165136)
Thanks to Dan, and Anaheim and Mike who have been very supportive in answering questions of others, correctly, when I wasn't around.

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