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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

National League Leaders at the All Star Break (Offense Plus Defense)

The NL has some wonderful performances so far.  Chipper Jones flirted with .400 for a couple of months, and Dan “Please don’t hit it to me” Uggla has had a great season.  How does the league line up - and who is in the driver’s seat for the MVP?

The data here is “runs against average”.  The offense is calculated using Extrapolated Runs, but the number I have will approximate any run formula - RC, LW, EQR.  The Defense is converting Zone Rating to runs (as you can read about here).  The run values are very close to MGL’s UZR (usually).  The definition of “Position” is the innings at which a player has played the most.  Yes, Cristian Guzman played third base in the All-Star Game, but here he’s a shortstop.

First Base

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
berkman	lance	HOU	1B	93	334	37.7	751.7	6.5	44.2
pujols	albert	STL	1B	82	286	35.3	660.7	8.9	44.1
teix'ra	mark	ATL	1B	93	347	4.2	814.7	9.6	13.9
gonzalz	adrian	SDP	1B	95	370	4.3	844.7	4.9	9.2
howard	ryan	PHI	1B	96	364	-2.9	822.0	6.0	3.1
lee	derrek	CHC	1B	94	382	0.3	807.7	2.5	2.9
votto	joey	CIN	1B	91	308	-1.2	722.0	0.2	-1.0
young	dmitri	WAS	1B	50	150	-0.3	212.3	-0.8	-1.0
jackson	conor	ARI	1B	84	303	1.6	572.7	-3.2	-1.6
helton	todd	COL	1B	81	297	-5.5	715.3	3.2	-2.4
fielder	prince	MIL	1B	93	344	3.1	786.0	-6.7	-3.6
bowker	john	SFG	1B	75	234	-5.5	386.0	0.4	-5.2
boone	aaron	WAS	1B	71	163	-6.0	290.0	-3.0	-9.0
laroche	adam	PIT	1B	87	311	-5.8	720.0	-3.3	-9.1
delgado	carlos	NYM	1B	93	347	-4.0	783.0	-5.3	-9.3
aurilia	rich	SFG	1B	83	249	-8.0	411.7	-1.6	-9.6
loney	james	LAD	1B	95	350	-9.9	821.3	-0.1	-10.1
helms	wes	FLA	1B	80	169	-9.0	205.3	-2.8	-11.9
jacobs	mike	FLA	1B	81	285	-5.2	514.7	-10.7	-15.9

Berkman and Pujols are just monsters so far.  The batting averages are pretty high, and Berkman’s 50 points of slugging is outpacing Pujols’ 20 points of OBP.  Mark Teixeira is haveing a very good season, but it looks like nothing next to those two.  Mike Jacobs is a catcher playing first base.  And it is beginning to show.For as poorly as Carlos Delgado started, he’s “only” four runs below average on offense.  Ryan Howard is “only” three runs below. 

Second Base

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
utley	chase	PHI	2B	94	364	29.0	815.0	8.5	37.5
uggla	dan	FLA	2B	81	301	29.9	703.7	1.8	31.7
derosa	mark	CHC	2B	89	307	12.0	394.3	2.7	14.7
phillps	brandon	CIN	2B	93	372	6.3	811.3	6.5	12.8
font'not	mike	CHC	2B	71	143	6.6	288.7	3.7	10.3
johnson	kelly	ATL	2B	86	313	7.8	695.7	-2.0	5.9
gonzalz	edgar	SDP	2B	51	162	0.8	275.3	4.5	5.3
matsui	kazuo	HOU	2B	61	244	2.0	523.7	1.4	3.3
kennedy	adam	STL	2B	67	218	-5.6	446.7	7.7	2.1
baker	jeff	COL	2B	61	175	0.7	215.7	1.1	1.7
hudson	orlando	ARI	2B	86	328	3.3	724.7	-2.4	0.9
durham	ray	SFG	2B	87	263	7.8	535.3	-7.4	0.4
iguchi	tadahto	SDP	2B	59	239	-3.4	521.0	2.0	-1.4
miles	aaron	STL	2B	72	224	-0.8	299.7	-1.5	-2.3
weeks	rickie	MIL	2B	77	300	-1.7	667.0	-1.9	-3.6
kent	jeff	LAD	2B	79	285	-6.5	589.3	3.0	-3.6
loretta	mark	HOU	2B	62	173	-3.1	249.3	-2.0	-5.2
castllo	luis	NYM	2B	68	245	-0.4	565.0	-6.2	-6.5
easley	damion	NYM	2B	66	182	-2.0	266.0	-8.4	-10.4
lopez	felipe	WAS	2B	88	292	-14.5	582.7	1.7	-12.9
sanchez	freddy	PIT	2B	87	358	-24.4	718.3	-2.0	-26.4

Uggla is slightly ahead of Utley on offense, but Chase’s defense pushes him to the top slot.  The Cubs are getting some great second base play from DeRosa and Fontenot.  The Mets are being equally sabotaged by their second basemen.  Easley has had a hot month, or that would be much worse.  Freddy Sanchez won a batting title.  No, really, he did.

Third Base

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
jones	chipper	ATL	3B	83	298	38.6	659.7	9.9	48.6
glaus	troy	STL	3B	94	333	7.4	758.0	8.7	16.1
wright	david	NYM	3B	94	365	14.9	838.0	-3.0	11.8
ramirez	aramis	CHC	3B	88	326	12.3	764.0	-4.6	7.7
wiggnton	ty	HOU	3B	58	202	4.0	500.0	-2.8	1.3
bellard	ronnie	WAS	3B	56	163	0.5	192.3	-2.0	-1.5
feliz	pedro	PHI	3B	94	319	-10.4	726.3	8.5	-1.9
dewitt	blake	LAD	3B	83	266	-6.7	662.0	4.5	-2.1
reynolds	mark	ARI	3B	88	309	1.9	740.7	-5.2	-3.3
cantu	jorge	FLA	3B	92	368	3.8	676.0	-7.4	-3.6
atkins	garrett	COL	3B	93	368	-5.0	779.0	1.3	-3.6
kouzmnff	kevin	SDP	3B	88	354	-1.9	799.7	-1.7	-3.7
mntkiwicz	doug	PIT	3B	71	154	-2.1	173.7	-2.2	-4.3
encrncion	edwin	CIN	3B	86	297	1.2	721.3	-5.6	-4.4
zmmermn	ryan	WAS	3B	50	206	-4.9	440.7	-0.2	-5.1
blum	geoff	HOU	3B	60	160	-10.9	273.0	3.8	-7.1
hall	bill	MIL	3B	82	269	-9.9	578.3	0.4	-9.4
bautsta	jose	PIT	3B	86	269	-5.9	624.3	-3.6	-9.5
castllo	jose	SFG	3B	93	322	-15.8	705.3	2.7	-13.0

What is with the Pirates?  Chipper was pretty unhappy with David Wright’s Gold Glove, and it looks like he wants his own this year.  He’s been the best player in the NL this year, and by a decent margin given that it is only halfway through.  The Cardinals trade of Rolen for Glaus has worked out pretty well for both clubs.

Shortstop

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
ramirez	hanley	FLA	SS	93	373	40.6	800.3	-3.9	36.7
reyes	jose	NYM	SS	93	393	22.7	824.0	-4.4	18.3
guzman	cristian	WAS	SS	93	403	9.0	827.0	0.4	9.4
rollins	jimmy	PHI	SS	72	292	6.9	595.3	0.8	7.7
hardy	j.j.	MIL	SS	83	307	8.9	707.7	-4.4	4.5
escobar	yunel	ATL	SS	83	332	0.7	706.7	3.0	3.7
tejada	miguel	HOU	SS	94	371	-0.3	804.0	3.2	2.9
wilson	jack	PIT	SS	45	168	-0.1	395.0	1.7	1.6
barmes	clint	COL	SS	55	193	0.5	241.0	0.8	1.3
theriot	ryan	CHC	SS	87	347	5.5	752.3	-7.0	-1.6
drew	stephen	ARI	SS	88	341	1.8	740.7	-5.9	-4.2
izturis	cesar	STL	SS	73	216	-6.0	546.7	1.0	-5.0
quintnlla	omar	COL	SS	56	164	-6.2	267.0	1.0	-5.2
keppnger	jeff	CIN	SS	58	214	0.5	394.0	-5.9	-5.4
greene	khalil	SDP	SS	92	343	-10.3	830.3	4.2	-6.1
ryan	brendan	STL	SS	55	158	-7.6	224.7	0.4	-7.2
vizquel	omar	SFG	SS	46	151	-15.7	378.7	8.0	-7.8
tulowtzki	troy	COL	SS	39	151	-14.6	339.3	2.3	-12.2

Hanley is a terrific player.  Word is that his defense has legitimately improved, andit does show up here.  Jose Reyes has played pretty poorly defensively this year, making careless errors.  Omar Vizquel’s glove almost makes him worth keeping around.  Cristian Guzman has made a nice recovery after missing considerable time.  Rollins is about 100 ABs short, but not performing nearly as well as last season.

Catcher

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
mccann	brian	ATL	C	89	318	25.5	734.0	-0.7	24.9
soto	geovany	CHC	C	88	316	20.0	714.7	0.8	20.7
doumit	ryan	PIT	C	56	207	18.7	445.0	0.8	19.6
martin	russell	LAD	C	93	330	17.5	739.0	-1.5	16.0
kendall	jason	MIL	C	86	291	1.2	757.7	8.2	9.4
iannetta	chris	COL	C	52	168	9.2	400.3	-1.5	7.7
snyder	chris	ARI	C	64	191	4.6	507.7	0.9	5.5
molina	yadier	STL	C	78	276	3.0	634.3	2.1	5.1
molina	bengie	SFG	C	84	314	0.6	660.0	2.9	3.5
coste	chris	PHI	C	57	165	3.4	368.7	0.0	3.4
flores	jesus	WAS	C	55	178	3.4	410.3	-2.0	1.5
schnider	brian	NYM	C	62	205	-1.7	526.0	3.0	1.3
bako	paul	CIN	C	66	203	-5.1	519.0	2.1	-3.0
treanor	matt	FLA	C	54	183	-3.1	465.3	-0.9	-4.0
towles	j.r.	HOU	C	48	136	-9.4	374.7	1.8	-7.6
ausmus	brad	HOU	C	53	144	-8.2	365.7	0.2	-8.0
torralba	yorvi	COL	C	52	185	-8.4	456.0	0.1	-8.3
bard	josh	SDP	C	38	130	-6.7	313.7	-4.1	-10.8
ruiz	carlos	PHI	C	66	193	-13.1	492.3	-1.5	-14.5

Brian McCann and Geovany Soto are being heralded for their season.  And they should be, but there are Ryan Doumit and Russell Martin right there.  Martin will get his due, but Doumit is having a solid year.  Jason Kendall is throwing out runners at a tremendous pace.  That rate has made him into a good player, up from being a decent player.  I am somewhat surprised that the Molinas aren’t dominating the throwing rates, but they are not.  Brother Jose is in the AL though.

Left Field

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
burrell	pat	PHI	LF	94	313	24.2	700.0	5.2	29.3
holliday	matt	COL	LF	79	309	20.0	691.1	2.4	22.4
bay	jason	PIT	LF	92	341	23.4	785.1	-6.1	17.3
dunn	adam	CIN	LF	91	290	16.9	698.1	-0.7	16.2
soriano	alfonso	CHC	LF	51	212	7.2	426.2	2.5	9.7
hairston	scott	SDP	LF	82	255	5.7	289.1	2.5	8.3
braun	ryan	MIL	LF	92	377	7.3	777.2	-0.5	6.9
lewis	fred	SFG	LF	92	324	3.4	624.2	3.5	6.8
willnghm	josh	FLA	LF	44	158	7.4	347.1	-4.2	3.2
duncan	chris	STL	LF	72	212	-4.9	306.2	4.9	0.0
lee	carlos	HOU	LF	94	358	15.2	724.0	-16.0	-0.8
schmker	skip	STL	LF	89	311	-0.6	271.1	-0.5	-1.0
harris	willie	WAS	LF	79	145	-1.7	162.0	0.1	-1.6
pierre	juan	LAD	LF	73	274	-8.1	547.0	5.0	-3.1
gonzalz	luis	FLA	LF	88	241	-0.4	421.2	-7.3	-7.7
byrnes	eric	ARI	LF	52	206	-14.8	420.2	4.2	-10.6
pena	wily_mo	WAS	LF	64	195	-20.7	399.0	-1.9	-22.5

Pat Burrell has been the best LF in the game so far this year.  No ASG for him.  He’s also got the best defensive stats through the ASB.  There is some park effect here that isn’t defined yet, and that is for Carlos Lee.  He’s going to gain a handful of runs back, boosting him from about average to above average.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s not going to be a good fielder, just not quite that bad.  I don’t like cookie-cutter ballparks, but they make defensive analysis easier.  The Pirates may end up trading Jason Bay.  The Mets should get on that if they aren’t going to sign Bonds.

Center Field

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
beltran	carlos	NYM	CF	94	355	17.8	808.0	7.2	25.0
ankiel	rick	STL	CF	83	307	15.4	680.3	-0.1	15.3
ross	cody	FLA	CF	81	244	10.6	479.0	4.3	14.8
mclouth	nate	PIT	CF	90	367	24.1	774.0	-10.3	13.8
hairston	jerry	CIN	CF	56	188	11.5	82.7	1.5	13.0
gerut	jody	SDP	CF	61	201	6.0	390.7	6.2	12.2
splborghs	ryan	COL	CF	72	185	11.1	117.7	-2.2	8.9
victorino	shane	PHI	CF	82	319	4.2	648.3	4.4	8.5
kemp	matt	LAD	CF	89	338	4.8	431.0	1.5	6.2
rowand	aaron	SFG	CF	90	330	4.6	756.0	0.9	5.6
cameron	mike	MIL	CF	59	216	5.6	507.7	-0.2	5.4
bruce	jay	CIN	CF	44	163	0.9	176.0	1.5	2.4
johnson	reed	CHC	CF	63	205	-0.8	342.0	-0.7	-1.6
amezaga	alfredo	FLA	CF	73	182	-1.3	320.3	-0.5	-1.8
blanco	gregor	ATL	CF	82	261	0.6	358.7	-3.2	-2.6
edmonds	jim	SDP/CHC	CF	70	224	1.4	536.7	-4.4	-2.9
young	chris_b	ARI	CF	94	377	-10.3	824.3	4.4	-5.9
kotsay	mark	ATL	CF	58	208	-4.2	467.7	-2.1	-6.4
milledge	lastings	WAS	CF	80	302	-6.8	696.7	-1.3	-8.1
patterson	corey	CIN	CF	75	199	-13.0	400.0	2.9	-10.1
taveras	willy	COL	CF	80	292	-9.7	582.7	-0.7	-10.4
jones	andruw	LAD	CF	53	165	-14.4	387.3	0.7	-13.7
bourn	michael	HOU	CF	89	326	-14.6	693.0	-6.4	-21.0

Carlos Beltran was not at the All-Star Game.  Rick Ankiel, considering this is his rookie position player season, is having a great year.  I like seeing Cody Ross on the board.  I suspect few people have seen and can appreciate how good he is.  Jay Bruce is making a good showing too.  For a young rookie, he’s hanging tough.  For once Andruw Jones is posting a good DRS - and his bat is atrocious.

Right Field

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
ludwick	ryan	STL	RF	87	298	20.0	519.7	0.5	20.5
giles	brian	SDP	RF	84	319	11.0	729.7	6.4	17.4
nady	xavier	PIT	RF	82	305	13.2	669.7	0.7	13.8
church	ryan	NYM	RF	57	205	9.4	453.3	0.8	10.2
ethier	andre	LAD	RF	85	307	6.5	474.0	2.7	9.2
werth	jayson	PHI	RF	69	214	7.1	247.0	0.6	7.7
fukudome	kosuke	CHC	RF	90	326	4.8	723.3	2.9	7.7
winn	randy	SFG	RF	90	330	4.4	696.7	1.3	5.7
hart	corey	MIL	RF	93	357	3.9	797.0	0.4	4.4
hermida	jeremy	FLA	RF	84	333	-2.8	698.3	6.3	3.5
dukes	elijah	WAS	RF	52	175	4.2	366.7	-2.3	1.9
griffey	ken	CIN	RF	90	315	-2.5	649.0	-0.5	-3.0
chavez	endy	NYM	RF	78	201	-10.7	281.0	6.1	-4.7
pence	hunter	HOU	RF	92	357	-8.7	797.0	1.0	-7.7
upton	justin	ARI	RF	83	277	0.8	696.0	-8.8	-8.0
jenkins	geoff	PHI	RF	77	232	-10.5	495.7	0.4	-10.2
kearns	austin	WAS	RF	52	185	-11.4	454.0	0.7	-10.7
hawpe	brad	COL	RF	77	262	2.5	653.3	-13.7	-11.2
franco'r	jeff	ATL	RF	90	355	-18.5	784.3	-2.8	-21.3

Wow, that Jeff Francoeur is something special.  Ryan Ludwick is enjoying a good season too.  I am glad he got an All-Star slot.  Brian Giles is toiling in anonymity still.  His whole career has lacked the publicity it deserves.  Elijah Dukes is playing pretty well for Washington.  If Ryan Church can get back healthy, he could be a difference maker for the Mets.  Jayson Werth is one player I’d like to see get a full season.  I like the cut of his jib.

MVP Chase

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
jones	chipper	ATL	3B	83	298	38.6	659.7	9.9	48.6
berkman	lance	HOU	1B	93	334	37.7	751.7	6.5	44.2
pujols	albert	STL	1B	82	286	35.3	660.7	8.9	44.1
utley	chase	PHI	2B	94	364	29.0	815.0	8.5	37.5
ramirez	hanley	FLA	SS	93	373	40.6	800.3	-3.9	36.7
uggla	dan	FLA	2B	81	301	29.9	703.7	1.8	31.7
burrell	pat	PHI	LF	94	313	24.2	700.0	5.2	29.3
beltran	carlos	NYM	CF	94	355	17.8	808.0	7.2	25.0
mccann	brian	ATL	C	89	318	25.5	734.0	-0.7	24.9
holliday	matt	COL	LF	79	309	20.0	691.1	2.4	22.4
soto	geovany	CHC	C	88	316	20.0	714.7	0.8	20.7
ludwick	ryan	STL	RF	87	298	20.0	519.7	0.5	20.5
doumit	ryan	PIT	C	56	207	18.7	445.0	0.8	19.6
reyes	jose	NYM	SS	93	393	22.7	824.0	-4.4	18.3
giles	brian	SDP	RF	84	319	11.0	729.7	6.4	17.4
bay	jason	PIT	LF	92	341	23.4	785.1	-6.1	17.3

Those are the top 16.  Two Pirates in there.  There are the reasons the Marlins are in the hunt.  The Cardinals big bats are in there.  Utley and Burrell for the Phillies.  I think the top four will be the ones at the end as well.  Beltran has had a first half power outage, so if he gets hot, he could jump up.  Burrell and Uggla both had big first halfs, so expect them to regress.  All in all, it’s going to be very exciting.

Chris Dial Posted: July 16, 2008 at 10:52 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Frisco Cali Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:29 AM (#2861827)
I pick Hannley to have the monster final 10 weeks. Probably won't be enough to win the MVP, but my gut says he will be a monster very soon.
   2. Frisco Cali Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:29 AM (#2861828)
Hanley

Geez.
   3. Swoboda is freedom Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:30 AM (#2861829)
Uggla is a butcher though. 3 errors last night, plus one for Ramirez.
   4. Boots Day Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:50 AM (#2861839)
Chris, you mentioned Carlos Lee, but it looks like Brad Hawpe is the second worst defensive player in the league, giving back a whopping 13.7 runs. I don't think he's very good out there, but I have a hard time believing he's that bad.

Is there a park effect there? All the Rockies outfielders rate below zero except Holliday, who has a mediocre 2.4 despite generally positive defensive reviews.
   5. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:55 AM (#2861842)
Ryan Howard's excellent defense cancels out his bad offense? DOES NOT COMPUTE
   6. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:57 AM (#2861843)
Is there a park effect there? All the Rockies outfielders rate below zero except Holliday, who has a mediocre 2.4 despite generally positive defensive reviews.
Probably. The humidor has mitigated most of it, AFAICT. I have begun gathering more granular data, so I will be able to check it by the end of the year. But again, the small sample could easily be the reason Hawpe is at -14 instead of -6. There just has to be a little more time to even out.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:04 AM (#2861846)
You had Easley as one of the very best defenders in all of baseball last year. Now one of the very worst.
   8. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:14 AM (#2861850)
The Mets' infield defense was brutal in the first half.
   9. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:16 AM (#2861851)
Pujols all of .01 runs behind Berkman despite playing 11 fewer games. I like that.

Of course, Chipper missed the same amount of time and is 4.5 runs ahead of either. Damned Chipper.
   10. 1k5v3L Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:16 AM (#2861852)
Yup, the Dbacks are awful. Thank god for Chris Snyder...
   11. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:19 AM (#2861855)
You had Easley as one of the very best defenders in all of baseball last year. Now one of the very worst.
Er, not exactly. Last year he played about 450 innings. Total, and 330 at 2B. He's played nearly that this year, and as I have said, 300 innings just isn't cutting the sample size requirement for the data to be definitive. What you see here is that Easley (who is a year older and playing every day more) and he only has had 100 GBs to field. In both cases he's going to move toward his nateural level with more innings.
   12. jyjjy Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:41 AM (#2861863)
The formatting on the charts is hurting my brain.
   13. base ball chick Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:46 AM (#2861865)
am i understanding rightly that michael bourn allows 6.7 more runs than the average CF?
   14. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:14 AM (#2861885)
Yes, Bitsy.
   15. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:35 AM (#2861897)
Damned Dial beat me to the punch. But I've got better formatting.
   16. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:48 AM (#2861906)
Greg, how are you doing your offense and defense?
   17. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:53 AM (#2861910)
Carlos Beltran has been a disappointment.
   18. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: July 17, 2008 at 03:02 AM (#2861916)
This is first year, I've watched Glaus on a regular basis, and the numbers above square with my perception that he's been quite good at third this year. How has he graded out in past seasons?
   19. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2008 at 04:18 AM (#2861943)
So Omar is still the best defensive SS in the NL ... despite playing only half the games? Yikes.

Chris I know you've done some "career" totals (i.e. for the years you have data) -- where is Vizquel for his career?

I am stunned that somehow Michael Bourn has managed to be worse overall than Andruw Jones. I've had more value to the Dodgers this year than Jones.

1B is particularly interesting to me. Probably fairly typical but ignore the top 2, and everyone's within 14 runs of one another. An interesting mean vs. median example possibly. But think of it from a GM's perspective. You need to replace a 1B, you can't get Pujols or Berkman -- basically you might as well weight offense and defense equally.
   20. akrasian Posted: July 17, 2008 at 04:30 AM (#2861948)
I've had more value to the Dodgers this year than Jones.

Yes, and for $18 million less.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: July 17, 2008 at 05:47 AM (#2861965)
Yes, and for $18 million less.

Don't remind me. I'd have settled for 1 year at $4M but my agent kept telling me I could get Pierre's contract.

Thanks Brattain!
   22. DCW3 Posted: July 17, 2008 at 06:33 AM (#2861977)
Rick Ankiel, considering this is his rookie position player season, is having a great year.

Well, technically, even if Ankiel had never pitched, he had too many at-bats last year to be considered a rookie this season.
   23. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 17, 2008 at 06:34 AM (#2861979)
Loney as a slightly-below-average defender?
Really?
   24. sunnyday2 Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:09 PM (#2862016)
The top 5 and 7 of the top 8 ML position players are in the NL? Or is that an artifact of the DH?
   25. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:16 PM (#2862019)
Damned Dial beat me to the punch. But I've got better formatting.

I question a rating system that has Reggie Abercrombie at the top.
   26. sunnyday2 Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:25 PM (#2862024)
This raises a question. Hanley Ramirez is the best offensive player in the league, better than Pujols, better than Berkman (according to these numbers). And he plays SS. I don't see how he can't be the MVP.

Somebody please talk to me about the positional adjustments (?) on defense. Is a good 1B that much more valuable than a mediocre SS?
   27. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: July 17, 2008 at 12:39 PM (#2862031)
Well, sunny, speaking strictly in terms of offense, he's not better than Pujols or Berkman. The reason his offensive number is bigger is only because he gets compared to the SSs, while Pujols and Berkman to the 1Bs that his numbers above. If you're adjusting the offense for position, then you really can't give Hanley any extra credit for playing shortstop. Dial orr someone else could probably articulate the point better though.
   28. bibigon Posted: July 17, 2008 at 01:25 PM (#2862061)
The top 5 and 7 of the top 8 ML position players are in the NL? Or is that an artifact of the DH?


It could be:

1. An artifact of nothing, and 7 of the 8 best players in baseball are in the NL.

2. An artifact of the NL being the weaker league. Ut is easier for truly great players to create a lot of separation from league average when league average is set lower.

I think it's mostly #2, but who knows.
   29. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:05 PM (#2862093)
Dial or someone else could probably articulate the point better though.
I thought you did a great job. these are already positionally adjusted. In terms of raw runs created, Pujols and Berkman outstrip Hanley, but Hanley is being compared to SSs.

It's even harder for Pujols and Berkman because they are being compared to each other.
   30. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:07 PM (#2862096)
Sunnyday2,
bibigon has it pretty well answered in #28. When there are more tams in a league, there will be a lower average (as they have to start two guys that wouldn't have jobs in the AL). That inherently gives an advantage to the top players.
   31. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#2862101)
But - top players:
1B - Pujols
2B - Utley
3B - ARod
SS - HRamirez
LF - Holliday
CF - Beltran/Sizemore (tie)
RF - Dunno - but I would actually give it to Brian Giles
C - Mauer

P - Santana

The top players at each position do largely reside in the NL.
   32. AROM Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:34 PM (#2862114)
Why does Uggla havea postive rating? The guy is worse than Shooty Babbitt.


Data not counting the allstar game?
   33. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:39 PM (#2862119)
Why does Uggla havea postive rating? The guy is worse than Shooty Babbitt.

Hey! #### you kevin!
   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:42 PM (#2862121)
In fairness to Freddy, he's been playing hurt all year (shoulder). Dollars to doughnuts he has surgery this offseason.

The Mets don't have enough to get Bay.
   35. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2008 at 02:45 PM (#2862126)
bibigon has it pretty well answered in #28. When there are more tams in a league, there will be a lower average (as they have to start two guys that wouldn't have jobs in the AL). That inherently gives an advantage to the top players.

Is this true? The NL and the AL both draw players from the same pool of talent. Just because the NL has more teams, that doesn't mean the average player should be any worse. If you moved two teams from the NL to the AL, the AL average likely wouldn't change. Or, more accurately, it would be just as likely to go up as to go down, depending on which teams you moved.

I think it is likely one of these three:

1. The NL is the weaker league and has more variance of players as a result.
2. Some guys who aren't really this good (Berkman, Chipper) are having out-of-this-world seasons so far.
3. The NL may have a greater concentration of superstars than the AL at this time, despite being the overall weaker league.
   36. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 03:04 PM (#2862143)
Dave,
it doesn't *have* to, but given the teams and typical spread of payrolls, I think it is likely to.
   37. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 03:06 PM (#2862145)
2. Some guys who aren't really this good (Berkman, Chipper) are having out-of-this-world seasons so far.
Those guys are really good. I man, players spike all the time. I think those two are closer to their true talent than someone like Dan Uggla.
   38. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2008 at 03:59 PM (#2862197)
it doesn't *have* to, but given the teams and typical spread of payrolls, I think it is likely to.

OK, but this is more about which teams are in the AL vs. which teams are in the NL. I don't think it has anything to do with the number of teams in the league.

Those guys are really good. I man, players spike all the time. I think those two are closer to their true talent than someone like Dan Uggla.

Yeah, didn't mean to imply otherwise. I actually didn't realize Uggla had been "better" than all but one AL player.

Chipper and Berkman are both really good players, but not this good. Still, Chipper is 21 points ahead of his all-time best OPS+ and Berkman is 25 points ahead of his. And that's part of my point. The guys who are having career years in the NL were already really good players. In the AL, that is not really true. Ian Kinsler having a career year is like Chase Utley having a normal year.

Chris, one interesting thing about the NL is that the top offsneive players seem, with a few exceptions, to be having really good defensive seasons as well. In the AL, that is less true.
   39. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: July 17, 2008 at 06:12 PM (#2862349)
Greg, how are you doing your offense and defense?

1. Adjusted batting runs picked from the pocket of Sean Forman.
2. Pretty much same as you (I would guess), although I don't separate the leagues, which obviously has a notable impact at positions where one league's defenders are appreciably better than the other's.
   40. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: July 17, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2862375)
Damned Dial beat me to the punch. But I've got better formatting.

Why didn't Brian Roberts make your list of AL leaders?
   41. Chris Dial Posted: July 17, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2862376)
Are you reading and using my article on Zone Rating and how to calculate runs from it?
   42. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: July 18, 2008 at 04:40 AM (#2863453)
Why didn't Brian Roberts make your list of AL leaders?

Because I'm a total clod, apparently. It's been fixed.


Are you reading and using my article on Zone Rating and how to calculate runs from it?

No, by "same as you" I just meant "I also converted Zone Rating to runs." I have my own convoluted method of estimating chances that makes me a unique snowflake.
   43. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 18, 2008 at 05:59 AM (#2863482)
I have my own convoluted method of estimating chances that makes me a unique snowflake.


You can get actual chances from SI from 2002 on.
   44. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: July 21, 2008 at 07:32 PM (#2866688)
Abbreviating
fontenot 
as
font'not 
is hilarious.
   45. Chris Dial Posted: July 22, 2008 at 11:55 AM (#2867684)
I have my own convoluted method of estimating chances that makes me a unique snowflake.
Greg, my convoluted way isn't that convoluted. I accumulated hundreds of thousands of actual innings and chances and found the per inning average doesn't change much from season to season. Yes, some are off slightly, but it takes a wild mark to miss by a run or three. I'd advise similar activity - even just using the SI ones from 2002 (I checked my 1990s numbers against those, and they still came up within 2 chances over a full season).

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