The Blogpark in Arlington: Let’s see what sticks

Back around the trade deadline, when the Rangers were trading for a new player every day, I remembered wondering how necessary this really was.  There were definitely some holes, with Kinsler out, first base and catcher being played poorly, and the back end of the rotation was equally bad.  So the Rangers traded Smoak and change for Cliff Lee, and I mentioned here I was happy with the deal.  Cliff Lee was lights out, and was a horse in the rotation averaging about 8 innings a start.  And Smoak ...

Transaction Oracle: In-Depth Analysis of Jeff Francoeur Acquisition

2010 ZIPS Projection - Jeff Francoeur
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        AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG
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2010   401   43   95  16   2  11   54   29   76   8 .237 .293 .369
RoYr   135   16   36   7   1   4   20    8   25   1 .264 .312 .413
------------------------------------------------------------------
Total  536 ...

Transaction Oracle: Contract of…WIN?!

Last week, I asked my Twitter followers (I'm @DSzymborski, which I constantly forget to mention publicly) which team would sign Livan Hernandez to a terrible contract this offseason. But, as it turns out, Livan not only didn't hit free agency, but actually signed a good contract, only a roughly $100K a year raise. Generally, you mix Livan Hernandez and a pitcher with a 3.49 ERA and a terrible K rate and you get ...

Transaction Oracle: Twins - Acquired Fuentes

The Twins were correct to try to improve somewhere, but while Fuentes is a solid reliever (and while not as got as K-Rod, at least he didn't hurt his hand beating someone up), the Twins have a really solid bullpen and appear to be well to the point of diminishing returns. Of course, Fuentes comes cheaply (haven't seen any names yet for PTBNL, but I'm positive it's not Aaron Hicks) and it's too ...

Transaction Oracle: Rays - Signed Hawpe

While Hawpe hasn't been bad offensively this season, unlike fellow former Rockie cliffer Garrett Atkins, dropping to an OPS+ of 100 made it too hard for Colorado to stomach the defense. It's much easier to overlook a player with less range than Ashton Kutcher when he's got an OPS+ of 128. After the down season, it became obvious that Colorado would not pick up Hawpe's option, so the team tried to get something for him. Nobody ...

Notes in a Minor Key: Where I’m Going, Where I’ve Been

It’s been an odd season for me. I haven’t really followed the minors too closely, largely because (1) I’ve been preoccupied with work and (2) the local minors haven’t really been that interesting in terms of prospects this year. Yes, there’s been Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings at Durham and Devin Mesoraco and Dave Sappelt (who has *really* bloomed this year, like the Reds need another outfield prospect in their logjam), but beyond that I have been most unimpressed.

I did sneak in a ...

Sox Therapy: Go Big, or Go Home

The BPro playoff odds numbers have been steadily counting down over the last two weeks.  It’s somewhere between one in twelve and one in six by now, depending on the inputs.  The Sox have played great baseball, especially with their diminished lineup - the problem is the Rays and Yankees have been just as good.  Keeping pace is a moral victory, but moral victories are stupid and suck. 

The last chance the Sox have at a non-moral victory is to throw a sweep on one of the Yankees or Rays in a ...

Primate Studies: Northern California Symposium on Statistics and Operations Research in Sports, October 16, 2010

I attended this symposium two years ago, and it’s well worth it. $25 for students, $45 for non-students, registration link is here. There’s one oral presentation on baseball, four poster presentations specific to baseball, plus this rather intriguing poster presentation:

Never Too Late To Win
by Adam Gold
Sports fans can be freed from cheering against their favorite team for a draft pick. Draft orders based on how teams perform after becoming mathematically eliminated from playoff contention ...

Primate Studies: SABR 40: Impressions of a First-Time Attendee

Thanks to my years hanging out at Baseball Think Factory, I have been aware of SABR for quite a while, and have given consideration to joining.  I had planned to attend the convention in St. Louis, then the one in Cleveland.  However, at the time of SABR 37 (St. Louis), my wife was four months pregnant, and I had a long list of home improvements that needed to be completed as soon as possible.  And when SABR 38 rolled around (Cleveland), I had a six month old.  So neither of those worked ...

Sox Therapy: Shortstop Logjam

Dustin Pedroia returns on Tuesday, and surely will play just about every game at 2B from here to the end of the season.  That’s good.  It creates a bit of a problem at shortstop, though.  Jed Lowrie has been brilliant filling in for Pedroia.  He’s played a solid but unspectacular second base while hitting 308/429/538.  My favorite little slice of Lowrie’s stats is that he has 11 walks, 8 extra base hits, and 7 strikeouts.  Lowrie’s cut his strikeout rate in half since he last played ...