Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

If the Nationals go into the season as the likely 4th-best team in the division, it's not from lack of trying - the team's been in on every major free agent this winter, making serious offers, and even being the favorite destination for Prince Fielder for about a month.

The team's really just missing one big middle of the order bat to be in a good position to mix it up with the rest of the division and compete well for a Wild Card. They're not so far away that it can't happen in 2012 with ...

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Sox Therapy: You’re telling me there’s a salary cap in the new CBA?

I’ve complained in a few places about the Red Sox ownership not being willing to spend a little over the luxury tax threshold to complete this roster.  I could rehearse here how offering David Ortiz arbitration is a very questionable decision if you’re treating the luxury tax threshold as a hard cap, but I’d rather talk about that hard cap in the first place.  Why are the Sox, who have previously treated the luxury tax threshold as a guideline, now acting as if their payroll is ...

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Hall of Merit: Barry Bonds

Eligible in 2013

Jim's Lab Notes: Upgrade Update and Schedule for Server Migration

Just wanted to provide a quick update on the progress on my ongoing updates…

The upgrade of our underlying CMS software did not complete without issue. Nevertheless, I have been able to fix most of the problems. I still have a few, relatively minor, outstanding bugs to take care of but, for the most part, the upgrade to the new version of EE is complete.

I am now in the process of re-factoring the underlying templates for performance and to prepare for the site redesign. On top of that I am ...

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Sox Therapy: A Crap Trade

Tonight, in a move I really didn’t think would happen, the Red Sox gave away Marco Scutaro for nothing.  Marco Scutaro is under contract for $6M for next season.  This is his dumber-than-Marcel projection:

+3 Bat +1 Run +19 Rep +6 Pos -1 Def = +28 RAR

That’s a $14M player.  So, the Sox gave away an $8M bargain for Clayton Mortensen.  In conclusion: ugh. 

Clearly, what’s going on is that the Sox have a hard payroll limit, and they decided that they need to save money at shortstop in ...

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Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

Is there any team more happy about baseball adding a second wildcard spot than the Toronto Blue Jays? In the short-term at least (and probable long-term unless the top AL East teams start showing some serious incompetence), Toronto's prospects improve considerably if they don't have to better both the Red Sox and Yankees to make the playoffs. That obviously helps Tampa Bay and Baltimore as well, but the Jays are in that sweet spot where it's pretty darn useful - the Rays can compete for the ...Read More...

Transaction Oracle: 2012 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays plan to win in 2012 the same way they usually do: pitching, defense, and catching just enough lightning in a bottle on offense around their core. The team is, at least by ZiPS, just behind the Red Sox for 3rd place, but the winter is over and given how relatively quiet the team has been with minor-league signings (outside of Luke Scott, they've made very few), they've still got some empty bottles to fill.

Tampa won't have that starting rotation, forever. A team competing on a ...

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Hall of Merit: Most Meritorious Player: 1968 Ballot

Here are the specific rules for this election:
Candidate Eligibility: Any North American professional baseball player is eligible for the Most Meritorious Player (MMP) award including players in the top Negro Leagues or independent teams. Voters should consider the player’s on-field contribution to Major League Baseball (MLB) team(s) in that season only. If part of the season was spent outside MLB, that value may be considered as well. However, the player’s on-field contribution should be ...

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Hall of Merit: 2013 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion

2013 (November 26, 2012)—elect 3*
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos
705 186.2 1986 Barry Bonds-LF
437 146.4 1984 Roger Clemens-P
428 73.8 1989 Craig Biggio-2B
325 68.7 1993 Mike Piazza-C
322 61.0 1989 Sammy Sosa-RF
252 75.4 1990 Curt Schilling-P
288 51.7 1992 Kenny Lofton-CF
297 41.3 1989 Steve Finley-CF
280 45.0 1983 Julio Franco-SS/2B
210 55.2 1988 David Wells-P
237 41.8 1995 Shawn Green-RF
209 36.7 1992 Reggie Sanders-RF
230 28.9 1994 Ryan Klesko-LF/1B
185 33.7 1994 Jose Valentin-SS
169 33.1 1995 Jeff ...

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Transaction Oracle: Mariners - Acquired Montero

Seattle Mariners acquire C Jesus Montero for P Michael Pineda and P Jose Campos

ZiPS projected Montero at .271/.333/.486 in Yankee Stadium. Good enough for a 112 OPS+. He’s going to a much tougher place to hit, so the raw stat line is not going to be nearly as pretty to get the same value. Let’s put it this way. Justin Smoak (a name not chosen at random of course) put up a 104 OPS+ with .234/.323/.396. I like Montero an awful lot but I’d downgrade him a fair amount in anything like a Strat ...

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