NL hurler Rick Reuschel was number two this year with 49% after 17 years on a ballot, while Met and Yankee pitcher David Cone became the last inductee of 2012 with 44% in his sixth year of eligibility.

Rounding out the top-ten were: Phil Rizzuto, Luis Tiant, Cannonball Dick Redding, Hugh Duffy, Gavvy Cravath (back in the top-ten!), Vic Willis and Sal Bando (I believe it’s the first time in the top-ten for the last two, but I’m too lazy to check to make sure :-).

FWIW, Bernie Williams was the top newbie at #26.

Thanks to OCF and Ron Wargo for their help once again with the ballot tally

See you again same Bat-time next year!

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1    4  Rafael Palmeiro          622   32   7  5  7  2  4     2  2  2        1         
 2    6  Rick Reuschel            441   25   6  4  3  1  2  1        2  1     1  3  1   
 3    5  David Cone               396   25   4  3  2     1  1  2  4     4  1  1     1  1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4    7  Phil Rizzuto             336   25   2     3  1     6  1        2  2  1  2  4  1
 5    8  Luis Tiant               226   18   1        1     4     2  4     1  3  1     1
 6    9  Cannonball Dick Redding  219   13   1  2  1  3  1     2        2  1            
 7   10  Hugh Duffy               215   14   3  1  1     1     1     2  1  1  1     2   
 8   11  Gavvy Cravath            211   16      1  2     1     3  1  1  1     2  4      
 9   14  Vic Willis               193   14         1  4  1  2     1  1  1        1  1  1
10   19T Sal Bando                193   13      2  2  1  1  1     1        2     2     1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   12  Don Newcombe             189   13      1  1  1  1  4     2           1  2      
12   17  Bobby Bonds              179   12      1  1  4  1  1     1           1     1  1
13   23  Tommy Leach              169   14   1  1        1  1     1     1  2  2  2  1  1
14T  27  Ben Taylor               164   12      1     1  1  1  2  3        1     2      
14T  13  Bucky Walters            164   12   1     2  1  1     1           1  1  2  2   
16   21  Ed Williamson            140    8   2  1  1  1                 1  1  1         
17T  22  Burleigh Grimes          126    9      1  1     2           1     2  1  1      
17T  55T Hilton Smith             126    9   1  1     1     1  1     1        1        2
19   24  Bus Clarkson             126    8   2        1  1        2        1  1         
20   15  Fred McGriff             124   10      1           1  1  1  2  1     2        1
21   19T Tommy Bridges            124    8   1  1  1  1           1        1     1  1   
22   29  Johnny Pesky             119    9      1     1  1           3     1  1  1      
23   26  Dizzy Dean               109    8      1        1  1  1  1     2              1
24   30  Buddy Bell               101    8      1           1  2  1              2     1
25   18  Bob Johnson               94    8         1     1              3  1        1  1
26  n/e  Bernie Williams           87   10                  1  1           1  1     3  3
27   50  Frank Chance              87    7            1  1  1     1  1              2   
28   38  Bert Campaneris           81    5         1  2  1                    1         
29T  36  Bill Monroe               80    6         1  1        1           2        1   
29T  25  Tony Perez                80    6      1           1     1  1        1  1      
31   31  Bob Elliott               77    6               1  1  1  1     1        1      
32   35  Tommy John                75    5         1  1              3                  
33   16  Kirby Puckett             73    8                  1           2     1     3  1
34   28  Mickey Welch              70    5               2        2  1                  
35   32  Albert Belle              69    5         1  1                 1  1  1         
36   34  Pie Traynor               67    6         1                    1  2     1     1
37   44  Dave Concepción           66    7                     1  1        1  1  1     2
38   46T Kevin Appier              66    6               2           1        1     1  1
39   39  John Olerud               62    5                     1  2     2               
40T  40  Norm Cash                 59    5               1           2     1  1         
40T  45  Dwight Gooden             59    5                     2  1  1                 1
42T  60  Lee Smith                 55    4      1           1           1              1
42T  48  Urban Shocker             55    4            1  1  1                       1   
44  n/e  Dolph Luque               55    3   1           1  1                           
45   41  Vern Stephens             53    4               1     1  1        1            
46   51  Babe Adams                52    3   1        1                 1               
47   33  Elston Howard             51    4         1                 1  1              1
48T  43  Addie Joss                50    3   1                 1     1                  
48T  79T Jim McCormick             50    3      1           1        1                  
50   55T Ed Cicotte                47    4      1                          1     1     1
51T n/e  Carlos Moran              43    3   1                       1              1   
51T  67  Thurman Munson            43    3      1              1                       1
53   52  Dale Murphy               41    3                  1  1     1                  
54  n/e  Tommy Bond                39    3            1  1                             1
55   68  Lou Brock                 37    3               1           1        1         
56   49  Wally Schang              37    2      1              1                        
57   58T Dave Bancroft             36    4                              1  1     1  1   
58   62  Jim Rice                  36    3                        1  1  1               
59   46T Carl Mays                 33    3            1                    1           1
60   64T Jack Quinn                33    2      1                          1            
61   74T Ron Cey                   29    2         1                                1   
62   58T Ernie Lombardi            26    2            1                       1         
63   55T Al Rosen                  25    2                     1        1               
64  n/e  Orel Hershiser            24    3                                 1        2   
65T  63  Sam Rice                  24    2               1                       1      
65T  70T Bruce Sutter              24    2                     1           1            
67   42  Fred Dunlap               24    1   1                                          
68   61  Frank Tanana              23    2            1                                1
69T  69  Larry Doyle               22    2                     1                 1      
69T  85T Lefty Gomez               22    2                     1                 1      
69T  79T Gene Tenace               22    2                  1                       1   
72   76  Rabbit Maranville         21    2                              1  1            
73T n/e  Willie Davis              20    2                                 2            
73T  70T Tony Mullane              20    2                     1                       1
75  n/e  Cesar Cedeno              19    2                        1                    1
76   64T Luke Easter               18    2                           1                 1
77   64T Chuck Klein               15    2                                    1        1
78   83T Luis Aparicio             14    1                     1                        
79   82  Rusty Staub               13    2                                          1  1
80   53  Ken Singleton             13    1                        1                     
81T  77T Sam Leever                11    1                              1               
81T  89T Dave Parker               11    1                              1               
81T  85T Deacon Phillipe           11    1                              1               
84T n/e  Ray Dandridge              9    1                                    1         
84T  98T Elmer Smith                9    1                                    1         
84T  54  Don Mattingly              9    1                                    1         
84T n/e  Tom York                   9    1                                    1         
88T n/e  Frank Howard               8    1                                       1      
88T  37  George Van Haltren         8    1                                       1      
90T n/e  Orlando Cepeda             7    1                                          1   
90T n/e  Charlie Hough              7    1                                          1   
90T n/e  Billy Nash                 7    1                                          1   
90T  94T Joe Tinker                 7    1                                          1   
94T n/e  Jim Fregosi                6    1                                             1
94T  74T Tony Oliva                 6    1                                             1
94T n/e  Dan Qisenberry             6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: George J. Burns(85T), Jack Clark(77T), Johnny Evers(73), 
Fielder Jones(94T), Mike Griffin(83T), Hack Wilson(79T), Jim Kaat(89T), 
George Kell(85T), Harvey Kuenn(98T), Tony Lazzeri(94T), Bill Madlock(89T), 
Bill Mazeroski(98T), Al Oliver(94T), Lance Parrish(89T), Mike Tiernan(72), 
Will White(89T).
Ballots Cast: 37

Standout hitter/outfielder Larry Walker was next in line with 73.3%, while fiery pitcher Kevin Brown fell in right behind Walker with an almost identical 73.2%. 

Rounding out the top-ten were: Rafael Palmeiro (strong first showing despite some protest non-votes), David Cone, Rick Reuschel, Phil Rizzuto, Luis Tiant, Cannonball Dick Redding (back in the top-ten!) and Hugh Duffy.

Thanks to OCF and Ron Wargo for their help with this election’s tally!

See all of you again here next year!

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Jeff Bagwell             909   38  35  3                                       
 2  n/e  Larry Walker             686   36     10 12  2  2  4     1  3        1  1      
 3  n/e  Kevin Brown              685   33   1 13 10  4  3        2                     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 4  n/e  Rafael Palmeiro          472   29   1  6  1  1  3  6  4     3  2  1  1         
 5    4  David Cone               332   26         1  7     2  2  2  1  2  3     3  1  2
 6   10  Rick Reuschel            235   16      1     3  6     1  2  1              1  1
 7    5  Phil Rizzuto             225   18         1  2  2  2  1     3  1     1  2  3   
 8    9  Luis Tiant               183   16            1  1  1  1  2  3  1  1  2     2  1
 9   12  Cannonball Dick Redding  180   13      1  1  2  1  1  2        2        1     2
10    7  Hugh Duffy               172   14      1     1  1     2  1  1  2     3  1     1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11    6  Gavvy Cravath            161   16         1     1        1     3  1  2  3  1  3
12   14  Don Newcombe             157   12            2  2     1  2  1  3              1
13    8  Bucky Walters            137   10      1  1  2        2              1  1  1  1
14   17  Vic Willis               132   11               1  1  2  2  1     2  1        1
15   13  Fred McGriff             119   10            1  1        2     3  1  1  1      
16   16  Kirby Puckett            118    9   1  1           1        1  1  2        1  1
17   19  Bobby Bonds              112    9         1        2  1     1  2              2
18   18  Bob Johnson              110   10                  1     3  1  1     1  3      
19T  41  Sal Bando                107    9               1  1  2  1     1  1        2   
19T  23  Tommy Bridges            107    9            1  2     1     1     1  1     1  1
21   31  Ed Williamson            101    7         1  1     1  1  1  1           1      
22   20  Burleigh Grimes          100    8         2        1     1              1  2  1
23   11  Tommy Leach               97    8         1  1     1        1        1  1  2   
24   25  Bus Clarkson              86    7            2        2              2        1
25   21  Tony Perez                84    7            1  1     1        1  1  1     1   
26   22  Dizzy Dean                83    6         2     1                 1        1  1
27   33  Ben Taylor                79    8                  1        1  1  2     1  1  1
28   27  Mickey Welch              76    6                  2     2        2            
29   24  Johnny Pesky              70    7                     1     1  2     1     1  1
30   42  Buddy Bell                67    5         1        1              3            
31   34  Bob Elliott               66    6                        1  2     2  1         
32   29  Albert Belle              62    6                     2  1              1  1  1
33   38T Elston Howard             62    5               1  1     1        1     1      
34   44  Pie Traynor               60    5         1        1                 1  1     1
35   40  Tommy John                59    5               1  1              1  2         
36   28  Bill Monroe               54    5               1  1                 1  1     1
37   37  George Van Haltren        54    4         1     1                 1           1
38   32  Bert Campaneris           53    4                  1  2           1            
39  n/e  John Olerud               48    5                           2     1     1     1
40   35  Norm Cash                 47    5                        1     1  1        1  1
41   51  Vern Stephens             47    4                  1  1        1           1   
42   36  Fred Dunlap               46    4            1        1              1        1
43   46T Addie Joss                46    3      1                    1  1               
44   15  Dave Concepción           45    5                           1     1  1  1     1
45   77T Dwight Gooden             45    3         1                 1  1               
46T  45  Kevin Appier              44    4                     1  1     1              1
46T  56  Carl Mays                 44    4               1     1                    2   
48   48T Urban Shocker             42    4                        2           1     1   
49   65  Wally Schang              41    3               1     1        1               
50   59  Frank Chance              39    4                           2        1        1
51   52  Babe Adams                37    2      1              1                        
52   30  Dale Murphy               35    4                           1        1  1     1
53   26  Ken Singleton             32    3                  1              1        1   
54   54T Don Mattingly             32    2   1                                   1      
55T  53  Ed Cicotte                30    3            1                             1  1
55T  66  Hilton Smith              30    3                           1  1           1   
55T  54T Al Rosen                  30    3                           1     1     1      
58T  63  Dave Bancroft             29    3                     1                 1  1   
58T  60T Ernie Lombardi            29    3                  1                       2   
60   50  Lee Smith                 29    2               1        1                     
61   46T Frank Tanana              28    2                  1     1                     
62   80T Jim Rice                  27    3                                 2        1   
63   60T Sam Rice                  27    2                     1  1                     
64T  68T Luke Easter               25    2               1                    1         
64T  58  Chuck Klein               25    2            1                          1      
64T  62  Jack Quinn                25    2            1                          1      
67   70T Thurman Munson            22    2                        1           1         
68   48T Lou Brock                 21    2                  1                          1
69   43  Larry Doyle               20    2                              1     1         
70T  57  Tony Mullane              19    2                              1        1      
70T  74T Bruce Sutter              19    2                           1              1   
72  n/e  Mike Tiernan              17    1            1                                 
73  n/e  Johnny Evers              16    2                                    1     1   
74T  93T Ron Cey                   16    1               1                              
74T  82T Tony Oliva                16    1               1                              
76   67  Rabbit Maranville         15    2                                       1  1   
77T n/e  Jack Clark                14    2                                          2   
77T  76  Sam Leever                14    2                                       1     1
79T  85  Hack Wilson               13    1                        1                     
79T  86  Jim McCormick             13    1                        1                     
79T n/e  Gene Tenace               13    1                        1                     
82   38T Rusty Staub               12    1                           1                  
83T n/e  Luis Aparicio             11    1                              1               
83T n/e  Mike Griffin              11    1                              1               
85T  80T George J. Burns           10    1                                 1            
85T  87  Lefty Gomez               10    1                                 1            
85T  88T George Kell               10    1                                 1            
85T  88T Deacon Phillipe           10    1                                 1            
89T  70T Jim Kaat                   9    1                                    1         
89T  91T Bill Madlock               9    1                                    1         
89T  79  Dave Parker                9    1                                    1         
89T n/e  Lance Parrish              9    1                                    1         
89T  93T Will White                 9    1                                    1         
94T  88T Fielder Jones              8    1                                       1      
94T 102  Tony Lazzeri               8    1                                       1      
94T  93T Al Oliver                  8    1                                       1      
94T n/e  Joe Tinker                 8    1                                       1      
98T  93T Elmer Smith                6    1                                             1
98T n/e  Harvey Kuenn               6    1                                             1
98T n/e  Bill Mazeroski             6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Tommy Bond(84), Cesar Cedeno(77T), Orlando Cepeda(74T), 
Wilbur Cooper(99T), Jose Cruz(102), Frank Howard(99T), Chuck Finley(82T), Jack Fournier(93T), 
Orel Hershiser(70T), Charlie Hough(102), Leroy Matlock(64), Jack Morris(93T), 
Billy Nash(102), Nap Rucker(91T), Jimmy Ryan(70T), Dizzy Trout(68T), Robin Ventura(99T).
Ballots Cast: 39

Hall of Merit Ballot, Discussion and Results Thread - All the threads that were created for any HoM election, including our mock HOF and Veterans Committee elections.

Our Constitution - The rules we’ve set up.

Something Better - The article that introduced all of this.

Positional Threads

Pennants Added - Combining peak and career value.

New Eligibles by Year - Who’s eligible this ‘year’?

Number of Electees by Year

Selected 19th Century Candidates

Selected 20th Century Candidates

Links to discussions of Negro League Candidates

Links to discussions of Latino Stars/Candidates

Discussion on Estimating the Quality of League Play

List of Hall of Merit Voters Past and Present

The Spitter, Steroids, and the One-Year Boycott

HoM Election History, Data and Analysis (hosted by “friend of the HoM” Paul Wendt)

Amendment to cover new voters and challenges to ballots
Baseball Prospectus: Japanese Baseball: How Good Is It?
Battle of the Uber-Stat Systems (Win Shares vs. WARP)!
Credits and Deductions for WW II Players
Dan Rosenheck’s WARP Data
Discussion of changing the number of electees by year
Discussion of Negro League candidates
Discussion of Token Appearances
Do we need a Centennial Commission?
50th Anniversary Team
The Greatest Player Ever?
Hall of Fame’s 2006 Negro League Election
Hall of Merit - The Early Years
The HoM Half Time Show!
Hall of Merit Website
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Major League Equivalencies
Monte Irvin to the LF ballot
Negro League Win Shares Estimates
Once We Catch-Up: The Hall of Merit After 2007
Pennants Added 2.0 (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Pennants Added Pitchers (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Ranking the Hall of Merit Players That Are Not in the Hall of Fame
Reevaluating Negro League Pitchers
Register to vote
Relief Pitchers
2B vs. 3B before 1920
Term Limits or Perpetual Eligibility For Candidates?
Voters Personal Halls of Merit

Established in 2003, the HoM welcomes any new voters who are serious about inducting the most worthy candidates from all eras and positions.

Annual elections will be held around December of each year. Prior to December of 2007, retroactive elections were held once or twice a month starting from 1898 up to the present.

Project coordinator John Murphy helps run the day-to-day activities for the HoM.

The Baseball Hall of Merit Plaque Room - Where we honor the greatest players of all-time.

2009 Election Results, 2008 Election Results - The results from our last two elections.

Important Links

Finally, a consolidated home page, with all of our important links.

The Hall of Merit Plaque Room - Where we honor the greatest players of all-time.

Our Constitution - The rules we’ve set up. Something Better - the article that introduced all of this.

Positional Threads (which will be updated . . . )  Pennants Added - combining peak and career value.

New Eligibles by Year - who’s eligible this ‘year’? Number of Electees by Year

Links to discussions of Negro League Stars

Links to discussions of Latino Stars

Discussion on Estimating the Quality of League Play

Election Results:  2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1972, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1958, 1957, 1956, 1955, 1954, 1953, 1952, 1951, 1950, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1946, 1945, 1944,  1943, 1942, 1941, 1940, 1939, 1938, 1937, 1936, 1935, 1934, 1933, 1932, 1931, 1930, 1929, 1928, 1927, 1926, 1925, 1924, 1923, 1922, 1921, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1916, 1915, 1914, 1913, 1912, 1911, 1910, 1909, 1908, 1907, 1906, 1905, 1904, 1903, 1902, 1901, 1900, 1899, 1898

Ballot Threads: 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1972, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1958, 1957, 1956, 1955, 1954,  1953,  1952, 1951, 1950, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1946, 1945, 1944, 1943, 1942, 1941, 1940, 1939, 1938, 1937, 1936, 1935, 1934, 1933, 1932, 1931, 1930, 1929, 1928, 1927, 1926, 1925, 1924, 1923, 1922, 1921, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1916, 1915, 1914, 1913, 1912, 1911, 1910, 1909, 1908, 1907, 1906, 1905, 1904, 1903, 1902, 1901, 1900, 1899, 1898

Ballot Discussion Threads: 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1972, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1958, 1957, 1956, 1955, 1954, 1953, 1952, 1951, 1950, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1946, 1945,  1944, 1943, 1942, 1941, 1940, 1939, 1938, 1937, 1936, 1935, 1934, 1933, 1932, 1931, 1930, 1929, 1928, 1927, 1926, 1925, 1924, 1923, 1922, 1921, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1916, 1915, 1914, 1913, 1912, 1911, 1910, 1909, 1908, 1907, 1906, 1905, 1904, 1903, 1902, 1901, 1900, 1899, 1898

Season by season recaps: 1876, 1875, 1874, 1873, 1872, 1871

2005 Hall of Fame Ballot
2005 HOF Results
2006 Hall of Fame Ballot
2006 Hall of Fame Ballot Discussion
2006 HOF Results

Amendment to cover new voters and challenges to ballots
Battle of the Uber-Stat Systems (Win Shares vs. WARP)!
Credits and Deductions for WW II Players
Discussion of changing the number of electees by year
Discussion of Negro League candidates
Discussion of Token Appearances
Do we need a Centennial Commission?
50th Anniversary Team
The Greatest Player Ever?
Hall of Fame’s 2006 Negro League Election
The HoM Half Time Show!
Let’s get to know each other
Major League Equivalencies
Negro League Win Shares Estimates
Pennants Added 2.0 (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Pennants Added Pitchers (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Reevaluating Negro League Pitchers
Register to vote
Relief Pitchers
2B vs. 3B before 1920
Selected 19th Century Players
Selected 20th Century Players
Term Limits or Perpetual Eligibility For Candidates?
Voters Personal Halls of Merit

Yes, I know Rich Harden's out for the season. Once again, I include as many players as possible, for information purposes.

Next Up: San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Coco Crisp        B    CF   32   .264 .320 .391 104 394  59 104  19   5   7  40  34  55  31   6   92
Seth Smith        L    RF   29   .245 .322 .408 138 400  52  98  21   4  12  46  45  89   7   1   97
Hideki Matsui     L    LF   38   .253 .326 .396 128 454  52 115  23   0  14  68  51  84   1   1   95
Kurt Suzuki       R    C    28   .259 .315 .393 141 514  64 133  28   1  13  61  36  62   4   2   91
Scott Sizemore    R    3B   27   .247 .326 .383 134 493  70 122  27   2  12  55  54 131   9   4   92
Daric Barton      L    1B   26   .241 .351 .359 125 435  65 105  24   3   7  52  72  88   3   2   94
Jemile Weeks      B    2B   25   .267 .318 .374 126 532  69 142  25  10   4  48  38  88  21  10   88
Cliff Pennington  B    SS   28   .252 .318 .359 156 543  71 137  27   5   7  53  52 105  23   7   84
Kila Ka'aihue     L    1B   28   .226 .329 .373 134 474  56 107  20   1  16  60  73 123   1   1   91
Michael Taylor    R    CF   26   .245 .307 .380 132 503  62 123  23   3  13  66  42 118  13   5   86
Collin Cowgill    R    CF   26   .243 .312 .360 127 486  58 118  22   4   9  54  45 116  20   5   82
Chris Carter      R    LF   25   .224 .302 .398 131 518  71 116  26   2  20  74  54 170   6   2   88
Wes Timmons       R    2B   32   .252 .334 .340 105 373  48  94  19   1   4  37  37  37  10   4   84
Eric Sogard       L    SS   26   .254 .321 .347 136 531  77 135  25   3   6  50  51  72  10   5   82
Brandon Allen     L    1B   26   .212 .310 .375 150 546  66 116  24   4  19  67  73 192  10   4   85
Jonny Gomes       R    LF   31   .220 .309 .374 126 372  47  82  16   1  13  48  41 117   6   3   85
Josh Reddick      L    RF   25   .238 .289 .391 148 517  60 123  26   4  15  47  39 114   5   5   83
Grant Green       R    SS   24   .254 .293 .363 155 639  72 162  33   2  11  57  33 172   7   7   77
Michael Choice    R    CF   22   .222 .290 .369 115 474  50 105  24   2  14  54  40 163  10   6   78
Jeffrey FiorentinoL    CF   29   .228 .303 .343 117 364  46  83  17   2   7  37  39  81   7   3   76
Brandon Moss      L    LF   28   .221 .291 .375 143 480  57 106  25   2  15  63  45 144   5   6   80
Josh Donaldson    R    C    26   .219 .289 .357 126 479  61 105  25   1  13  64  45 126   7   2   74
Derek Norris      R    C    23   .177 .333 .322 114 379  59  67  17   1  12  40  84 155   9   3   80
Adam Rosales      R    SS   29   .234 .288 .347  90 291  37  68  11   2   6  36  20  66   3   2   72
Anthony Recker    R    C    28   .220 .286 .354 106 381  43  84  19   1  10  40  34 120   4   3   73
Cedric Hunter     L    CF   24   .245 .291 .331 134 510  67 125  23   6   3  52  33  52  10   5   69
Shane Peterson    L    LF   24   .222 .293 .321 137 526  58 117  23   4   7  53  46 138  11   2   67
Jason Pridie      L    CF   28   .228 .273 .336 105 342  37  78  13   3   6  27  21  89  12   4   65
Stephen Parker    L    3B   24   .225 .294 .329 139 550  60 124  26   2   9  61  52 145   2   2   69
Jermaine Mitchell L    CF   27   .224 .300 .325 136 536  68 120  20   8   6  42  57 165  16  12   70
Landon Powell     B    C    30   .216 .294 .318  55 176  21  38   6   0   4  18  20  46   0   0   67

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Coco Crisp                                                            AV/81
Seth Smith                                                    AV/69          FR/131
Hideki Matsui                                                 PO/96
Kurt Suzuki              AV
Scott Sizemore                       AV/160  FR/104  FR/117
Daric Barton                 VG/102
Jemile Weeks                         FR/132
Cliff Pennington                     AV/115          AV/105
Kila Ka'aihue                AV/126                          FR/117          FR/116
Michael Taylor               AV/118                          AV/135  FR/135  AV/149
Collin Cowgill                                                VG/87  AV/158  AV/111
Chris Carter                 PO/122                          FR/125          PO/125
Wes Timmons                   AV/94  FR/107   FR/77  PO/117
Eric Sogard                          AV/126   FR/90   FR/94
Brandon Allen                AV/108                           AV/90
Jonny Gomes                                                  FR/103          PO/106
Josh Reddick                                                 VG/101  FR/142  VG/120
Grant Green                                          AV/181          FR/128
Michael Choice                                                       FR/186
Jeffrey Fiorentino                                            FR/99   PO/74   AV/96
Brandon Moss                                                 AV/102   FR/95   FR/82
Josh Donaldson           VG
Derek Norris             VG
Adam Rosales                  AV/91   AV/88  FR/101   FR/98  AV/113
Anthony Recker           AV   FR/97
Cedric Hunter                                                VG/125  AV/118  VG/125
Shane Peterson               AV/106                          VG/104   AV/98  VG/115
Jason Pridie                                                 VG/103  VG/104   VG/94
Stephen Parker               AV/104          FR/130
Jermaine Mitchell                                             VG/96  VG/139  VG/124
Landon Powell            VG  FR/117

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Brett Anderson    L      24     3.78     6    5   16   16   100.0  102   42    9   26   69   107
Brandon McCarthy  R      28     3.81     8    6   22   21   130.0  130   55   13   28   90   107
Dallas Braden     L      28     3.88     7    6   16   16    97.3   98   42    9   25   61   105
Tom Milone        L      25     4.02    10    9   28   28   159.0  173   71   13   33  114   101
Jarrod Parker     R      23     4.20     9    9   26   26   124.3  128   58    9   53   94    97
Brad Peacock      R      24     4.22    10   10   28   25   143.0  136   67   16   67  127    96
Bartolo Colon     R      39     4.23     6    8   20   19   112.7  117   53   13   32   80    96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Rich Harden       R      30     4.46     5    6   20   20   103.0   97   51   16   49  108    91
Bobby Cramer      L      32     4.58     2    2   12    7    39.3   44   20    4   15   26    89
Graham Godfrey    R      27     4.90     7   10   26   22   125.0  141   68   12   51   74    83
Edgar Gonzalez    R      29     5.03     4    5   21   16    93.0  109   52    9   33   53    81
Tyson Ross        R      25     5.11     5    8   26   17    86.3   95   49   10   44   58    80
Fabio Castro      L      27     5.25     5    7   26   16    96.0  108   56    9   51   59    77
Lenny DiNardo     L      32     5.51     4    7   19   14    85.0  106   52   11   29   45    74
Carlos Hernandez  L      25     5.81     6   12   26   25   131.7  169   85   16   52   72    70
Pedro Figueroa    L      26     6.14     2    5   12   12    55.7   68   38    7   35   34    66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Joey Devine       R      28     3.57     4    3   50    0    45.3   39   18    3   20   45   114
Grant Balfour     R      34     3.60     3    2   59    0    55.0   48   22    6   21   54   113
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brian Fuentes     L      36     3.91     4    3   55    0    48.3   45   21    5   19   40   104
Erick Threets     L      30     4.01     1    1   24    0    24.7   25   11    2   11   14   101
Fautino De Los SanR      26     4.06     3    3   52    0    57.7   53   26    6   29   60   100
Andrew Carignan   R      25     4.12     2    2   38    0    39.3   38   18    4   18   35    99
Jerry Blevins     L      28     4.15     2    2   59    0    60.7   60   28    7   22   53    98
Michael Wuertz    R      33     4.18     1    1   50    3    47.3   43   22    5   24   51    97
Ryan Cook         R      25     4.23     4    4   63    0    66.0   64   31    5   35   53    96
Evan Scribner     R      26     4.37     4    4   51    0    55.7   56   27    6   20   46    93
Jordan Norberto   L      25     4.48     3    4   52    0    60.3   57   30    5   40   56    91
Fernando Cabrera  R      30     4.63     3    3   51    0    56.3   58   29    6   27   47    88
Vinnie Chulk      R      33     4.73     2    2   38    0    45.7   49   24    5   20   29    86
Neil Wagner       R      28     4.76     3    4   51    0    62.3   66   33    5   35   51    85
Jim Miller        R      30     4.80     3    5   54    0    65.7   73   35    8   23   48    85
Travis SchlichtingR      27     4.91     2    3   43    0    58.7   62   32    6   29   38    83
Merkin Valdez     R      30     5.10     3    4   48    0    60.0   67   34    6   31   39    80
Trey Barham       L      26     5.20     3    4   52    0    55.3   62   32    6   29   32    78
Jason Bergmann    R      30     5.60     3    6   38    6    62.7   71   39    8   36   40    73

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Kurt Suzuki          .255  .311  .380  1761  6409   743  1635   328    12   150   744   434   711    45    87
Coco Crisp           .269  .323  .395  1513  5722   831  1541   290    60   103   587   470   790   333    91
Hideki Matsui        .277  .353  .449  1522  5497   773  1525   305    12   205   917   653   864    14   113
Cliff Pennington     .253  .316  .362  1636  5658   704  1431   278    48    81   562   511   981   192    84
Daric Barton         .244  .355  .365  1346  4624   682  1127   265    28    80   534   780   884    29    97
Scott Sizemore       .245  .324  .377  1163  4210   574  1033   233    17    96   469   460  1017    65    90
Seth Smith           .255  .328  .428  1172  3280   443   835   179    36   106   396   350   649    45    98

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Bartolo Colon         179  133    0    4.14  413  403     2551 2573 1172  316  840 1953    109
Brett Anderson        135  110    0    3.77  354  353     2213 2198  926  218  595 1658    108
Rich Harden            87   71    0    4.11  284  272     1510 1333  690  201  707 1560    103

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Coco Crisp        CF     22%  22%  28%  18%   9%       Steve Finley       Dave Collins        Stan Javier
Seth Smith        RF      3%  14%  17%  26%  39%        Beau Allred      Ben Broussard       Keith Hughes
Hideki Matsui     LF      3%  10%  13%  21%  53%    Chris Chambliss      Tino Martinez        Matt Stairs
Kurt Suzuki       C       7%  25%  26%  28%  14%    Ramon Hernandez         Dan Wilson      Toby Rumfield
Scott Sizemore    3B      3%  12%  21%  28%  36%          Lee Walls     Brendan Harris       Mike Shannon
Daric Barton      1B      1%   3%   9%  32%  55%     Mike Twardoski         Travis Lee        Don Barbara
Jemile Weeks      2B      6%   9%  15%  26%  44%    Cristian Guzman    Wilton Guerrero       Joe Thurston
Cliff Pennington  SS      9%  16%  29%  27%  20%     Nelson Liriano       Bill Russell       Felipe Lopez
Kila Ka'aihue     1B      1%   3%   5%  22%  69%       Kevin Barker       Brandon Sing        Eric Valent
Michael Taylor    CF      2%   6%  17%  32%  43%    Ryan Spilborghs        Charles Poe      Darren Burton
Collin Cowgill    CF      3%   7%  20%  32%  38%        Xavier PaulJermaine Allenswort        Brian McRae
Chris Carter      LF      1%   5%   9%  19%  67%    Stanton Cameron        Jason Botts          Sal Rende
Wes Timmons       2B      5%   7%  11%  23%  54%        Augie Ojeda          John Finn         Todd Haney
Eric Sogard       SS      3%   9%  23%  32%  32%         Buddy Kerr         Russ Adams     Scott Fletcher
Brandon Allen     1B      0%   2%   5%  20%  73%      George Canale        Mike Hocutt       Monty Fariss
Jonny Gomes       LF      1%   3%   5%  13%  78%         Jed Hansen        Ernie Young      David McCarty
Josh Reddick      RF      0%   2%   4%  10%  84%       Kevin Reimer       Jorge Piedra     Robin Jennings
Grant Green       SS      2%   4%  14%  27%  53%     Jhonny Peralta         Mark Lewis Bill Knickerbocker
Michael Choice    CF      1%   3%  10%  23%  62%          John Rabb      Travis Snider          Jose Leon
Jeffrey FiorentinoCF      1%   2%   7%  20%  71%       Phil Dauphin    Michael Tullier      Tyrone Boykin
Brandon Moss      LF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%        John Jensen  John-Ford Griffin       Tyrone Woods
Josh Donaldson    C       2%   5%  12%  30%  52%        Jeff Mathis      Marc Sullivan           Luke May
Derek Norris      C       6%  11%  15%  28%  40%     Steve Lomasney        Ben Petrick         Luke Montz
Adam Rosales      SS      1%   4%  10%  23%  62%         Nick Green     Andujar Cedeno         Tom Nevers
Anthony Recker    C       1%   4%  10%  28%  58%         Bill Hayes        Jack Fimple         Paul Russo
Cedric Hunter     CF      0%   1%   3%  10%  86%       Clay Timpner         Chris Frey      Cory Sullivan
Shane Peterson    LF      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%         B.J. BarnsFrancisco Plasencia        Orsino Hill
Jason Pridie      CF      1%   0%   2%  10%  86%       Tommy Murphy       Alexis Gomez        Jalal Leach
Stephen Parker    3B      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%         Greg David         Dave Baker         Chris Bass
Jermaine Mitchell CF      0%   0%   2%   9%  89%    Roger Bernadina    Herm Winningham     Fernando Perez
Landon Powell     C       1%   4%   6%  18%  71%       Danny Ardoin      Jayhawk Owens       Chris Tremie

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joey Devine       RP      41%    42%    17%        Rich Garces         Ryne Duren        Greg Harris
Grant Balfour     RP      33%    52%    14%       Stan Belinda       Jeff Parrett   Brendan Donnelly
Brett Anderson    SP      50%    42%     8%    Donovan Osborne     Mike Kusiewicz        Manny Parra
Brandon McCarthy  SP      45%    48%     7%     Brian Tollberg       Kevin Tapani         Mike Grace
Dallas Braden     SP      35%    51%    14%        Chris Haney        John Halama    John Candelaria
Brian Fuentes     RP      23%    42%    35%        Ray Searage       Mark Guthrie      Trever Miller
Erick Threets     RP      24%    34%    42%       Hank Aguirre         Jim Brewer      Tom Burgmeier
Tom Milone        SP      33%    55%    11%    Donovan Osborne      Glendon Rusch      Rheal Cormier
Fautino De Los SanRP      17%    51%    33%       Brian Bruney        Bobby Jenks       Ryan Bukvich
Andrew Carignan   RP      22%    37%    41%    Derrick Turnbow      Steve Andrade         Bob Devlin
Jerry Blevins     RP      12%    47%    41%       Steve Wilson        John Grabow       Mark Guthrie
Michael Wuertz    RP      19%    41%    40%       Tim Stoddard       Jeff Parrett         Kane Davis
Jarrod Parker     SP      25%    57%    17%      Jason Schmidt           Bob Walk       Brian Holman
Brad Peacock      SP      21%    58%    21%       Shawn Chacon      Octavio Dotel        Tim Redding
Ryan Cook         RP      10%    49%    41%     Anthony Chavez       Brian Bowles           Sal Urso
Bartolo Colon     SP      21%    49%    30%         Jon Lieber        Doug Linton        Mike Morgan
Evan Scribner     RP      11%    39%    50%      Chad Ricketts         Greg Jones         Heath Bell
Rich Harden       SP      15%    44%    42%         Mario Soto       Chan Ho Park         Hideo Nomo
Jordan Norberto   RP       6%    37%    57%    Armando Almanza      Tyler Johnson    Kevin Lovingier
Bobby Cramer      SP      21%    33%    47%         Geoff Zahn        Chris Haney       Jason Jacome
Fernando Cabrera  RP       5%    30%    65%          David Lee      Roberto Giron    David Holdridge
Vinnie Chulk      RP       7%    26%    68%     Kevin Gryboski        Jim Dedrick     Kirk Bullinger
Neil Wagner       RP       3%    25%    72%       Roy Corcoran      Roberto Giron     Mike MacDougal
Jim Miller        RP       2%    28%    70%        Gary Glover      Rusty Meacham      Jack Cressend
Graham Godfrey    SP       3%    35%    62%        Mike LaCoss       Kevin Hodges        Steve Kelly
Travis SchlichtingRP       2%    19%    79%    William Vaughan         Greg Bauer     Jamie Emiliano
Edgar Gonzalez    SP       5%    34%    61%       Frank Campos       Heath Totten     Dave Borkowski
Merkin Valdez     RP       1%    18%    81%     Dwight Bernard      Mike Bumstead       Jake Robbins
Tyson Ross        SP       2%    25%    73%     Clint Nageotte        Mike Lumley         Danny Kolb
Trey Barham       RP       2%    17%    82%          Tom Doyle           Sal Urso    Anthony Ferrari
Fabio Castro      SP       1%    21%    78%          Sean Henn        Ken Spratke      Scott Forster
Lenny DiNardo     SP       2%    12%    87%    Lee Gronkiewicz         Robert Lee         Rick Waits
Jason Bergmann    RP       0%     6%    94%       James Warden      Marty McLeary   Jamie Brewington
Carlos Hernandez  SP       0%     3%    97%        Wes Whisler       Jason Cromer      Jason Dickson
Pedro Figueroa    SP       0%     5%    95%   Clayton Hamilton       Dusty Hughes   Mark Hendrickson

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Coco Crisp              10%       4%       2%       0%       7%       0%       1%      50%
Seth Smith               1%       4%       1%       0%       4%       0%       1%       0%
Hideki Matsui            4%       5%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Kurt Suzuki              4%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Scott Sizemore           2%       4%       1%       1%       1%       1%       1%       1%
Daric Barton             1%      20%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Jemile Weeks             8%       1%       1%       0%      47%       0%       0%      13%
Cliff Pennington         3%       2%       1%       1%       5%       0%       0%      20%
Kila Ka'aihue            0%       5%       1%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Michael Taylor           1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Collin Cowgill           1%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       8%
Chris Carter             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%
Wes Timmons              4%       8%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Eric Sogard              2%       2%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Brandon Allen            0%       1%       0%       0%       2%       4%       0%       2%
Jonny Gomes              0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Reddick             0%       0%       1%       0%       5%       1%       0%       0%
Grant Green              2%       0%       1%       7%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Michael Choice           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       3%
Jeffrey Fiorentino       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Moss             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Josh Donaldson           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Derek Norris             0%      10%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Adam Rosales             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Anthony Recker           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cedric Hunter            1%       0%       0%       0%      12%       0%       0%       0%
Shane Peterson           0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       2%
Jason Pridie             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Stephen Parker           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jermaine Mitchell        0%       0%       0%       0%      27%       0%       0%       2%
Landon Powell            1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joey Devine               31%        76%        77%         1%        87%
Grant Balfour             33%        74%        75%         2%        67%
Brett Anderson            15%        71%         3%        29%        82%
Brandon McCarthy          12%        69%         1%        63%        70%
Dallas Braden              9%        64%         1%        32%        77%
Brian Fuentes             17%        57%        27%         4%        62%
Erick Threets             24%        58%         4%        11%        88%
Tom Milone                 7%        61%         4%        68%        90%
Fautino De Los San        17%        60%        86%         0%        68%
Andrew Carignan           15%        49%        46%         2%        63%
Jerry Blevins             12%        51%        38%         3%        66%
Michael Wuertz            13%        51%        89%         0%        57%
Jarrod Parker              4%        48%         8%         0%        93%
Brad Peacock               4%        49%        43%         0%        60%
Ryan Cook                 10%        51%        17%         0%        84%
Bartolo Colon              5%        43%         4%        18%        55%
Evan Scribner              7%        42%        23%         3%        56%
Rich Harden                3%        29%        89%         0%        18%
Jordan Norberto            6%        36%        60%         0%        85%
Bobby Cramer               6%        28%         6%         8%        68%
Fernando Cabrera           3%        28%        30%         0%        58%
Vinnie Chulk               7%        25%         2%         1%        68%
Neil Wagner                2%        22%        26%         0%        83%
Jim Miller                 2%        23%         5%         5%        52%
Jim Miller                 1%        19%         5%         5%        52%
Graham Godfrey             0%        10%         0%         0%        75%
Travis Schlichting         1%        16%         1%         0%        69%
Edgar Gonzalez             1%        14%         1%         3%        65%
Merkin Valdez              1%        14%         1%         0%        78%
Tyson Ross                 0%         9%         1%         0%        62%
Trey Barham                1%        14%         0%         0%        63%
Fabio Castro               0%         5%         0%         0%        76%
Lenny DiNardo              0%         4%         1%         4%        42%
Jason Bergmann             0%         4%         1%         0%        40%
Carlos Hernandez           0%         0%         0%         0%        52%
Pedro Figueroa             0%         1%         0%         0%        42%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-02-10T15:52:08+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/blogpen/comments/offseason_minor_league_thread2 Because the Red Sox system is so thin in the high minors, and because their low-minors strength doesn’t feature any single obvious superstar, the prospect ratings have been a bit all over the place.  John Sickels’ top five only shared two names with Jim Callis’ top five, and Keith Law didn’t rank Callis’ #1 in his top 100, but he did put Sickels’ #7 in his 100th spot (only the second Red Sox to make the list).  Since I don’t actually watch minor league games, I tend to count on the experts and the aggregators of expert opinion in forming my opinions, particularly of players in the low minors.  So I really have no idea how to rate most of the players in the Sox system.

These are the Callis (BA), Sickels and Law (ESPN) top tens:

1) Middlebrooks 1) Bogaerts     1) Bogaerts (62) 
2) Bogaerts     2) Barnes     2) Swihart (100)
3) Swihart     3) Middlebrooks 3) Middlebrooks
4) Ranaudo     4) Lavarnway   4) Lavarnway
5) Brentz     5) Cecchini     5) Barnes
6) Jacobs     6) Jacobs     6) Ranaudo
7) Cecchini     7) Swihart     7) Jacobs
8) Barnes     8) Coyle       8) Brentz
9) Lavarnway   9) Brentz     9) Cecchini
10) Bradley, Jr 10) Ranaudo     10) Britton

My tendencies, just looking at the numbers, are to be skeptical of Middlebrooks (too many Ks for a guy without great on-contact numbers) and very skeptical of Brentz (too many Ks and way too old for the only level he performed well at).  One thing that I think has been under-reported, just a little, is what a huge breakout last year was for Lavarnway.  There’s no assurance that a guy who puts up a 900 OPS in the Carolina League will be able to do the same in the Eastern and International Leagues, and and the latter performances are far, far better than the former.  Lavarnway’s 2010 was nice, but his 2011 MLE would have made him an above average MLB designated hitter (330/450).  The projection systems take into account that this was a spike in the numbers and downgrade him significantly, but if his 2011 was a real qualitative improvement, then the boorish one is probably the best player in the system.

I’m also vaguely optimistic about Garin Cecchini, the lone low-minors prospect in the Red Sox system who doesn’t strike out every third time he comes to the plate.

One thing I can basically agree with is Keith Law’s ranking and evaluation of the Sox system.  He puts them #18, a bit below average but by no means barren of talent, and says:

This system is terribly thin up top given the money the Red Sox have spent in the past few years on amateur players. I do see a large group of prospects from low Class A and below that should produce a couple of breakout prospects in 2012, including Brandon Jacobs, Garin Cecchini, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes and Sean Coyle.

The Sox have gotten poor results from their drafting and development in the last few years, and what talent they did produce they’ve traded away, but given the ridiculous performance of the system up through 2008 or so, it’s hard to complain.  There’s so much talent in the low minors now that, just with normal luck and normal development, next year really should be a good year for the minors.  Which would be nice.

Next Up: Oakland A's, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Mike Napoli       R    C    30   .272 .361 .538 118 383  59 104  22   1  26  67  50 102   5   3  132
Ian Kinsler       R    2B   30   .274 .360 .474 135 536  92 147  30   4  23  71  67  69  25   5  117
Josh Hamilton     L    LF   31   .289 .342 .497 126 499  70 144  29   3  23  87  41  99   8   2  117
Nelson Cruz       R    RF   31   .269 .327 .511 126 476  63 128  27   2  28  82  41 113  14   5  116
Adrian Beltre     R    3B   33   .289 .329 .488 128 502  68 145  32   1  22  80  28  67   4   1  111
Michael Young     R    3B   35   .291 .336 .431 144 585  72 170  32   4  14  76  43  87   6   2  100
David Murphy      L    LF   30   .269 .328 .422 124 412  48 111  20   2  13  53  38  74  11   4   95
Mitch Moreland    L    1B   26   .264 .329 .424 143 526  63 139  29   2  17  68  49 103   3   2   96
Elvis Andrus      R    SS   23   .275 .348 .350 156 612  87 168  26   4   4  50  65  83  37  13   84
Brad Hawpe        L    1B   33   .235 .329 .404  95 307  37  72  17   1  11  44  42  99   1   1   91
Julio Borbon      L    CF   26   .276 .319 .363 125 460  61 127  16   6   4  41  25  64  28   8   79
Conor Jackson     R    1B   30   .255 .330 .367  87 286  35  73  15   1   5  43  30  40   5   1   83
Yangervis Solarte B    2B   24   .279 .311 .392 103 398  46 111  23   2   6  36  16  38   4   3   83
Michael Olt       R    3B   23   .230 .310 .388  95 361  37  83  16   1  13  46  41 115   3   1   82
Brandon Snyder    R    1B   25   .253 .301 .391 138 514  57 130  28   2  13  75  32 122   2   2   80
Craig Gentry      R    CF   28   .247 .309 .334 107 356  49  88  13   3   4  31  24  68  22   3   69
Brad Nelson       L    1B   29   .235 .303 .389 121 447  47 105  22   1  15  58  44  99   3   2   80
Chad S. Tracy     R    1B   26   .234 .291 .397 135 534  54 125  28   1  19  78  39 124   4   1   79
Esteban German    R    3B   34   .249 .316 .331 127 481  54 120  21   3   4  44  46  76  29   7   70
Greg Miclat       B    2B   24   .259 .321 .313 137 505  68 131  18   3   1  30  42 114  30   6   68
Yorvit Torrealba  R    C    33   .263 .309 .370  92 319  29  84  17   1   5  35  21  57   2   3   77
Brian Barden      R    3B   31   .258 .304 .373  85 271  29  70  14   1   5  28  16  58   1   2   77
Leonys Martin     L    CF   24   .270 .325 .350 109 426  44 115  19   3   3  36  30  74  21  15   78
Dusty Brown       R    C    30   .238 .301 .366  81 265  26  63  16   0   6  29  23  68   1   1   74
Chris Robinson    R    C    28   .263 .292 .342  77 266  26  70  13   1   2  31   9  44   3   1   66
Joey Butler       R    RF   26   .241 .295 .345 139 548  53 132  24   3   9  49  38 184   9   5   68
Matt Kata         B    2B   34   .240 .280 .344 114 404  37  97  20   2   6  43  17  64   4   1   63
Engel Beltre      L    CF   22   .253 .292 .333 148 565  51 143  19   7   4  37  24 119  18  10   64
Tommy Mendonca    L    3B   24   .231 .283 .357 146 571  51 132  26   2  14  57  32 203   1   3   67
Val Majewski      L    LF   31   .227 .288 .340  51 194  21  44   8   1   4  25  16  49   3   2   64
Luis Martinez     R    C    27   .234 .301 .314  99 338  37  79  16   1   3  35  30  84   2   1   62
Luis Hernandez    B    2B   28   .243 .278 .332 123 419  41 102  16   3   5  44  19  74   6   3   59
Kyle Hudson       L    LF   25   .253 .316 .283 137 498  63 126  11   2   0  29  43 127  31  16   59
Guilder Rodriguez B    SS   28   .243 .295 .272 117 408  40  99   8   2   0  28  30  64  12   5   50
Kevin Cash        R    C    34   .209 .282 .294  66 211  15  44   7   1   3  19  20  58   0   0   52

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Mike Napoli              AV  AV/109
Ian Kinsler                           VG/89
Josh Hamilton                                                VG/115   AV/67  VG/102
Nelson Cruz                                                  AV/112          AV/100
Adrian Beltre                                 EX/82
Michael Young                FR/110   PO/94  FR/100
David Murphy                                                  AV/80   PO/93   VG/83
Mitch Moreland                AV/82                          AV/115          AV/106
Elvis Andrus                                          EX/97
Brad Hawpe                   AV/107                                          PO/102
Julio Borbon                                                 VG/134  VG/110
Conor Jackson                 AV/96          PO/114           AV/88          AV/102
Yangervis Solarte                    AV/120   AV/96  PO/117  AV/107
Michael Olt                                  AV/157
Brandon Snyder               AV/144          FR/111
Craig Gentry                                                 VG/114   EX/96  VG/114
Brad Nelson                   AV/96          PO/117          FR/103          FR/103
Chad S. Tracy                FR/116                           FR/84
Esteban German                       FR/110  FR/153  FR/117  FR/119   PO/89
Greg Miclat                          AV/127          FR/136
Yorvit Torrealba         AV
Brian Barden                 FR/114  PO/100   AV/96   PO/99                   FR/97
Leonys Martin                                                VG/114  VG/123  VG/114
Dusty Brown              AV
Chris Robinson           AV  AV/112
Joey Butler                                                  FR/115  FR/134  FR/148
Matt Kata                     AV/99  AV/123  AV/102  FR/116  VG/112  FR/118   FR/93
Engel Beltre                                                 VG/103  VG/158  VG/103
Tommy Mendonca                               VG/125
Val Majewski                 FR/106                           FR/80           AV/93
Luis Martinez            AV
Luis Hernandez                        AV/97  FR/116   FR/83
Kyle Hudson                                                   VG/98  AV/102   VG/98
Guilder Rodriguez                     AV/83  AV/118   FR/96  AV/102  FR/101
Kevin Cash               FR  FR/117          FR/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Neftali Feliz     R      24     3.49    14    7   28   28   170.3  154   66   14   64  144   130
Yu Darvish        R      25     3.62    13    7   26   26   194.0  196   78   18   46  169   125
Alexi Ogando      R      28     3.72    12    7   27   26   150.0  139   62   14   50  121   122
Matt Harrison     L      26     3.97    12    8   26   26   156.3  159   69   14   52  103   114
Derek Holland     L      25     4.16    11    8   28   28   173.0  173   80   20   62  141   109
Colby Lewis       R      32     4.17    13    9   30   30   183.7  177   85   26   57  160   109
Scott Feldman     R      29     4.68     7    7   25   18   117.3  128   61   14   37   68    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Martin Perez      L      21     4.76     7    7   27   26   134.3  155   71   13   52  100    95
Neil Ramirez      R      23     5.01     6    7   29   28   116.7  125   65   15   54   91    90
Douglas Arguello  L      27     5.10     5    6   26   14    83.0   90   47    8   49   53    89
Robert Ross       L      23     5.16     9    9   27   26   139.7  167   80   16   49   72    88
Michael Kirkman   L      25     5.17     6    6   35   15   115.0  124   66   14   63   87    88
Brandon Webb      R      33     5.18     3    3    8    8    41.7   49   24    5   16   20    87
Miguel De Los SantL      23     5.42     5    6   21   18    81.3   82   49   11   63   78    83
Greg Reynolds     R      26     5.64     5    7   21   16    97.3  124   61   14   27   44    80
Eric Hurley       R      26     5.94     5    7   17   17    86.3  111   57   12   38   35    76
Jacob Brigham     R      24     6.13     5    8   30   17   105.7  128   72   15   66   66    74
Derek Hankins     R      28     6.39     5    7   28   12    88.7  111   63   17   39   45    71
Zach Jackson      L      29     6.42     4    8   30   15   109.3  145   78   17   51   47    70
Brett Tomko       R      39     6.90     3    6   18   12    74.3   98   57   17   33   40    66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Mike Adams        R      33     3.23     4    2   61    0    55.7   47   20    6   15   52   140
Koji Uehara       R      37     3.35     2    1   45    0    43.0   36   16    6    8   49   135
Joe Nathan        R      37     3.80     2    1   52    0    47.3   42   20    7   16   50   119
Yoshinori TateyamaR      36     3.86     2    1   47    0    56.0   53   24    7   15   52   117
Mark Lowe         R      29     4.13     4    3   49    0    48.0   47   22    6   19   43   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Mike Gonzalez     L      34     4.44     3    2   51    0    46.7   45   23    7   20   45   102
Tanner Scheppers  R      25     4.62     2    2   39    0    48.7   51   25    5   23   38    98
Justin M. Miller  R      25     4.71     5    4   44    0    57.3   57   30    6   32   44    96
Matthew West      R      23     4.73     2    1   25    0    26.7   30   14    3    7   17    96
Joe Beimel        L      35     4.86     2    2   52    0    37.0   41   20    5   14   22    93
Sean Green        R      33     5.06     2    2   45    0    48.0   52   27    5   26   31    89
Mark Hamburger    R      25     5.10     5    6   47    2    72.3   78   41   10   34   47    89
Mason Tobin       R      24     5.40     0    0    4    0     5.0    5    3    1    2    3    84
Mitch Stetter     L      31     5.65     1    1   40    0    28.7   33   18    5   13   22    80
Fabio Castillo    R      23     5.82     3    4   43    0    51.0   60   33    6   33   31    78

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Adrian Beltre        .276  .324  .464  2661 10135  1336  2799   587    32   419  1518   678  1544   132   106
Michael Young        .299  .343  .440  2091  8523  1178  2545   477    65   200  1120   595  1289   104   102
Elvis Andrus         .269  .348  .350  2232  8597  1256  2316   379    58    65   715   971  1200   411    84
Ian Kinsler          .267  .346  .446  1788  7096  1185  1897   384    40   268   872   796   866   289   106
Josh Hamilton        .289  .343  .496  1361  5340   760  1545   311    38   239   910   437  1000    75   117
Mike Napoli          .261  .344  .485  1678  5427   766  1418   282    10   304   832   623  1305    63   116
Nelson Cruz          .264  .321  .484  1271  4682   603  1236   256    18   246   751   385  1036   115   108
Mitch Moreland       .260  .326  .416  1159  4206   495  1094   230    12   134   528   397   786    22    93
Brad Hawpe           .266  .357  .460  1160  3782   498  1006   223    26   153   610   533  1051    16   107
Yorvit Torrealba     .259  .312  .382  1105  3627   374   941   203    15    70   428   257   663    23    80
David Murphy         .273  .330  .427  1023  3341   414   911   179    16   102   447   302   587    76    97

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Colby Lewis           122  114    0    4.75  347  310     1896 1924 1002  293  662 1566     96
Brandon Webb           98   75    0    3.52  233  232     1503 1419  588  115  507 1151    131
Scott Feldman          90   88    0    4.80  382  231     1563 1690  834  197  533  896     94

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Mike Napoli       C      80%  15%   4%   1%   0%       Chris Hoiles      Andy Seminick    Mike Macfarlane
Ian Kinsler       2B     72%  14%   8%   5%   1%       Billy Werber         Lonny Frey       Marcus Giles
Josh Hamilton     LF     28%  31%  17%  14%  10%       Jim Northrup        Ben Oglivie    Willie Crawford
Nelson Cruz       RF     26%  30%  18%  15%  11%    Richard Hidalgo      Larry Parrish       Jermaine Dye
Adrian Beltre     3B     20%  32%  24%  15%   9%      Matt Williams        Mike Lowell       Hank Majeski
Michael Young     3B      7%  19%  25%  27%  22%       Paul Molitor     Jerry Mumphrey        Jeff Conine
David Murphy      LF      2%  10%  14%  24%  49%          Del Unser       Stu Pederson      Raul Gonzalez
Mitch Moreland    1B      0%   5%  11%  33%  50%       Kelly Snider          J.T. Snow        Danny Lewis
Elvis Andrus      SS      8%  18%  32%  26%  17%      Pee Wee Reese     Edgar Renteria     Scott Fletcher
Brad Hawpe        1B      1%   4%   6%  22%  67%        Lee Stevens         Tony Clark       Mike Blowers
Julio Borbon      CF      3%   5%  13%  30%  49%       Mike Spidale       Alex Sanchez           Rudy Law
Conor Jackson     1B      0%   1%   4%  20%  75%        Ruben Amaro    Chris Pritchett          Nate Espy
Yangervis Solarte 2B      3%   5%   9%  22%  61%      Dean DeCillis     Manny Castillo         Jose Vidro
Michael Olt       3B      2%   6%  10%  19%  64%      Mike Costanzo         Jeff Manto         Greg David
Brandon Snyder    1B      0%   0%   1%   8%  91%       Bryan LahairGuillermo Velasquez         Ron Coomer
Craig Gentry      CF      1%   3%  10%  24%  62%        Wayne Lydon   Trenidad Hubbard        Tom Goodwin
Brad Nelson       1B      0%   1%   2%   9%  88%     James Clifford         Jim O'Dell         Jay Gainer
Chad S. Tracy     1B      0%   0%   2%  10%  87%    Troy Farnsworth     Tommy Everidge        Luis Garcia
Esteban German    3B      2%   3%   5%  12%  78%         Julio Lugo      Mark Belanger        Tony Taylor
Greg Miclat       2B      1%   2%   7%  19%  71%        Pat Listach    Harold Reynolds         Manuel Lee
Yorvit Torrealba  C       1%   5%  11%  27%  56%     Robert Machado         Dan Wilson      Charlie Berry
Brian Barden      3B      1%   1%   3%  11%  84%         Bill Stein          Dave Berg       Rich Rollins
Leonys Martin     CF      1%   1%   4%  12%  82%       Jonathan Jay       Rick Manning         Leo Garcia
Dusty Brown       C       1%   5%   9%  24%  61%       Dave Parrish       Carl Nichols         Bill Hayes
Chris Robinson    C       0%   1%   2%  12%  85%        Ken Huckaby Angelo Encarnacion        Omir Santos
Joey Butler       RF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Wil Culmer     George Hinshaw      Vernon Thomas
Matt Kata         2B      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%        Ed Brinkman         Geoff Blum        Neifi Perez
Engel Beltre      CF      0%   0%   1%   5%  93%       Trench Davis       Keiunta Span  Fredrick Tiburcio
Tommy Mendonca    3B      1%   0%   1%   3%  95%         Greg David         Stan Royer       Brook Jacoby
Val Majewski      LF      0%   1%   1%   2%  97%       Marc Sagmoen        Nate Murphy           Lou List
Luis Martinez     C       0%   0%   2%   9%  89%      Trey Lunsford       Dave Parrish        Ray Corbett
Luis Hernandez    2B      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%    Carlo Colombino  Gary Miller-Jones        Casey Smith
Kyle Hudson       LF      0%   0%   0%   0%  99%   LaSchelle Tarver     Leo Sutherland       Bruce Fields
Guilder Rodriguez SS      0%   0%   1%   3%  97%       Tom Runnells     Jarrett Stotts        Casey Smith
Kevin Cash        C       0%   0%   1%   3%  96%  George Mitterwald     Kirt Manwaring       Chad Moeller

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Mike Adams        RP      70%    25%     5%     Trevor Hoffman  Rafael Betancourt     John Wetteland
Koji Uehara       RP      68%    27%     5%     Rollie Fingers        Bob Wickman      Russ Springer
Neftali Feliz     SP      86%     8%     6%        Rich Harden    Carlos Zambrano        Jim Maloney
Yu Darvish        SP      73%    17%    10%         Ben Sheets     Javier Vazquez         Roy Oswalt
Alexi Ogando      SP      71%    24%     5%       A.J. Burnett       Tommy Greene      Bartolo Colon
Joe Nathan        RP      33%    49%    18%          Lee Smith          Tom Henke       Todd Worrell
Yoshinori TateyamaRP      36%    49%    15%         Jay Howell      Rick Aguilera         Dave Veres
Matt Harrison     SP      60%    32%     8%       Randy Tomlin       Mike Hampton    Justin Thompson
Mark Lowe         RP      29%    48%    23%      Darren Holmes      Steve Andrade      Antonio Osuna
Derek Holland     SP      49%    46%     5%         Randy Wolf        Britt Burns         Noah Lowry
Colby Lewis       SP      44%    50%     6%   Todd Stottlemyre     Javier Vazquez      Pedro Astacio
Mike Gonzalez     RP      16%    46%    38%      Trever Miller         Tim Byrdak     Keith Comstock
Tanner Scheppers  RP      14%    43%    43%  Francisco Cordero        Kevin Barry      Scott Gentile
Scott Feldman     SP      22%    59%    19%         Ron Mathis         Mike Grace         Mark Clark
Justin M. Miller  RP      15%    46%    39%        Saul Rivera        Kevin Barry         Bob Gibson
Matthew West      RP      22%    42%    36%       Steve Kealey       Rick Behenna          Dan Giese
Martin Perez      SP      17%    64%    19%      Mark Thurmond      Danny Jackson          Ted Lilly
Joe Beimel        RP      12%    33%    55%     Lee Guetterman     Eric Gunderson       Kevin Hickey
Neil Ramirez      SP      11%    52%    37%         John Maine           Bob Walk       A.J. Burnett
Sean Green        RP       9%    35%    56%     Kevin Gryboski      Ernie Camacho       Bryce Florie
Douglas Arguello  SP      10%    45%    45%       Bobby Sprowl          Pat Gomez     Matt Whisenant
Mark Hamburger    RP       3%    32%    65%        Aaron Small        Jason Flach        Mike Lumley
Robert Ross       SP       7%    51%    43%         Jeff Mutis        Brad Halsey       Mike Linskey
Michael Kirkman   SP       1%    34%    64%       Ramon Romero      Morris Madden        Bryan Clark
Brandon Webb      SP      19%    30%    52%       Sean Bergman        Chuck Smith     Eric Rasmussen
Mason Tobin       RP      21%    24%    54%      Jose Santiago       Steve Barber         Greg Bauer
Miguel De Los SantSP       6%    33%    61%   Carlos Hernandez          Al Leiter          Rich Hill
Seth McClung      RP       2%    18%    80%        Matt Albers         Karl Drews          Jim Owens
Greg Reynolds     SP       2%    25%    73%      Doug Waechter        Dave Eiland        Keith Evans
Mitch Stetter     RP       4%    21%    75%      Jason Brosnan       Joey Eischen      Scott Watkins
Fabio Castillo    RP       1%    15%    84%        Rick Greene    Felix Rodriguez     Jose Rodriguez
Eric Hurley       SP       1%    17%    83%   Preston Larrison      Juan Sandoval         Brian Bass
Jacob Brigham     SP       0%     9%    91%       Chris Kinsey      Travis Hughes     Willis Roberts
Derek Hankins     SP       0%     2%    98%      Wes Wilkerson        Mike Walker           Lou Pote
Zach Jackson      SP       0%     4%    96%       Chris Peters     Kevin Rawitzer     Jeff Musselman
Brett Tomko       SP       1%     7%    93%       Danny Darwin        Mike Morgan       Lew Burdette

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Mike Napoli             17%      33%      73%       0%       0%      31%      33%       0%
Ian Kinsler             16%      30%      25%       3%       2%      17%      11%      24%
Josh Hamilton           31%      12%      46%       3%       2%      18%      12%       2%
Nelson Cruz             12%       5%      57%       1%       0%      41%      11%       5%
Adrian Beltre           32%       5%      36%       4%       0%      12%       5%       0%
Michael Young           34%       7%       6%       5%       3%       2%       2%       0%
David Murphy            10%       4%       4%       0%       0%       1%       1%       2%
Mitch Moreland           6%       3%       3%       2%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Elvis Andrus            13%      15%       0%       2%       5%       0%       0%      69%
Brad Hawpe               1%       6%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Julio Borbon            15%       2%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%      36%
Conor Jackson            6%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Yangervis Solarte       21%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Olt              1%       2%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Brandon Snyder           1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Craig Gentry             2%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      13%
Brad Nelson              1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Chad S. Tracy            0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Esteban German           2%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      50%
Greg Miclat              4%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      48%
Yorvit Torrealba         9%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Barden             9%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Leonys Martin           11%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      13%
Dusty Brown              2%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Robinson           9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Joey Butler              0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Kata                1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Engel Beltre             2%       0%       0%       0%      24%       0%       0%       6%
Tommy Mendonca           0%       0%       1%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Val Majewski             2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Martinez            1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Hernandez           1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kyle Hudson              2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      53%
Guilder Rodriguez        1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Kevin Cash               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Mike Adams                65%        94%        65%        24%        65%
Koji Uehara               59%        92%        95%        79%        44%
Neftali Feliz             55%        93%        30%         0%        87%
Yu Darvish                42%        92%        37%        38%        80%
Alexi Ogando              33%        88%        20%         2%        78%
Joe Nathan                33%        76%        88%         6%        36%
Yoshinori Tateyama        28%        80%        58%        28%        40%
Matt Harrison             20%        85%         1%         3%        80%
Mark Lowe                 22%        71%        48%         3%        49%
Derek Holland             14%        77%        19%         1%        48%
Colby Lewis               12%        72%        40%         5%        21%
Mike Gonzalez             16%        54%        63%         1%        33%
Tanner Scheppers          10%        49%        19%         0%        55%
Scott Feldman              4%        47%         1%         6%        46%
Justin M. Miller          11%        54%        13%         0%        57%
Matthew West              22%        54%         4%        47%        58%
Martin Perez               2%        45%         5%         0%        72%
Joe Beimel                12%        36%         3%         9%        40%
Neil Ramirez               1%        31%        11%         0%        37%
Sean Green                 6%        36%         3%         0%        62%
Douglas Arguello           2%        24%         2%         0%        73%
Mark Hamburger             2%        23%         1%         0%        35%
Robert Ross                1%        19%         0%         1%        55%
Michael Kirkman            1%        23%         7%         0%        50%
Brandon Webb               6%        32%         0%         6%        64%
Mason Tobin               21%        46%        12%        30%        86%
Miguel De Los Sant         1%        17%        66%         0%        36%
Seth McClung               1%        16%         2%         0%        47%
Greg Reynolds              0%         8%         0%        21%        30%
Mitch Stetter              4%        18%        15%         3%        22%
Fabio Castillo             0%         8%         0%         0%        55%
Eric Hurley                0%         4%         0%         0%        37%
Jacob Brigham              0%         1%         0%         0%        26%
Derek Hankins              0%         1%         0%         0%         7%
Zach Jackson               0%         1%         0%         0%        15%
Brett Tomko                0%         2%         1%         3%        10%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-02-08T16:33:26+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/blogpen/comments/2012_zips_projections_miami_marlins Florida, ZIPS, What puts the Marlins a little behind the Braves is that while they have a really solid roster, there's also a certain lack of depth that can make back luck hit the team a little harder. The Braves have enough arms at AAA to cobble together a better-than-replacement level rotation if they lost all their major leaguers, while the Marlins don't. As a whole, the Marlins don't have a lot of major league-ready talent that can fill-in here or there and while there are lower-level prospects with upside, the trade value thins out quickly after Christian Yelich. Still a solid team, however, but it won't be a walk to the playoffs by any stretch.

Next Up: Texas Rangers, Oakland A's, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN

Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Mike Stanton      R    RF   22   .267 .361 .549 156 546  87 146  33   5  37  97  76 169   6   4  140
Jose Reyes        B    SS   29   .302 .353 .471 118 497  78 150  28  13  10  46  40  50  33   8  119
Hanley Ramirez    R    3B   28   .283 .365 .459 132 501  88 142  27   2  19  74  60  94  30  11  119
Logan Morrison    L    LF   24   .261 .360 .456 133 491  71 128  31   7  17  74  74 105   3   3  117
Gaby Sanchez      R    1B   28   .270 .348 .436 146 525  69 142  31   1  18  73  61  91   6   1  109
Chris Coghlan     L    CF   27   .264 .335 .392 118 462  69 122  27   4   8  42  45  85  13   7   94
Omar Infante      R    2B   30   .282 .324 .383 130 472  52 133  20   5   6  47  30  58   4   3   89
Bryan Petersen    L    CF   26   .259 .334 .379 144 483  61 125  23   4   9  39  52 112  12   7   91
Emilio Bonifacio  B    SS   27   .263 .326 .347 146 524  76 138  21   7   3  34  50 120  31  10   81
Donnie Murphy     R    SS   29   .226 .287 .428  55 159  23  36  10   2   6  22  11  44   0   0   89
Terry Tiffee      B    1B   33   .269 .295 .399  57 223  26  60  15   1   4  22   8  30   0   1   84
John Buck         R    C    31   .239 .309 .391 114 381  39  91  17   1  13  52  35 105   0   1   86
Alex Romero       L    RF   28   .258 .314 .353 121 400  46 103  20   3   4  43  28  59   6   3   79
Kyle Jensen       R    LF   24   .232 .296 .380 129 482  49 112  19   2  16  59  41 174   3   0   80
Jorge Padilla     R    RF   32   .263 .325 .342 112 377  48  99  16   1   4  31  30  69  10   6   79
Matt Dominguez    R    3B   22   .244 .305 .375 148 544  59 133  31   2  12  75  41 106   0   2   81
Greg Dobbs        L    3B   33   .250 .293 .364 114 280  27  70  14   0   6  31  17  57   1   0   75
Scott Cousins     L    RF   27   .234 .287 .372 105 312  41  73  14   4   7  36  23  89   9   4   75
Josh Kroeger      L    CF   29   .237 .299 .359 110 409  46  97  21   1   9  47  33  74  11   6   76
Aaron Rowand      R    CF   34   .236 .290 .370 114 373  45  88  19   2   9  36  19  97   3   3   75
Mike Cervenak     R    1B   35   .250 .289 .360 119 436  47 109  22   1   8  47  20  66   2   2   73
Chris Aguila      R    RF   33   .221 .284 .370 117 411  43  91  20   1  13  43  34 133   5   2   74
Donovan Solano    R    2B   24   .250 .288 .336 135 440  47 110  25   2   3  34  22  75   3   0   67
Luke Montz        R    C    28   .210 .301 .347 103 352  38  74  18   0  10  47  44 112   3   2   73
Cole Armstrong    L    C    28   .235 .289 .354  84 277  27  65  15   0   6  29  21  69   0   1   71
Gil Velazquez     R    SS   32   .243 .290 .335 112 382  41  93  17   3   4  29  24  74   8   3   67
Austin Kearns     R    LF   32   .220 .326 .323  80 232  28  51  10   1   4  19  31  71   1   2   75
Brett Hayes       R    C    28   .229 .276 .356  73 205  23  47  11   0   5  21  13  58   1   1   68
Orlando Mercado   R    C    27   .240 .306 .313  88 288  31  69  12   0   3  30  28  51   1   2   67
Alfredo Amezaga   B    SS   34   .232 .296 .304  66 194  20  45   9   1   1  23  16  38   2   1   61
Shawn Bowman      R    3B   27   .218 .263 .350  97 357  36  78  16   2   9  30  19 123   2   2   63
Ramon Vazquez     L    2B   35   .229 .302 .295  74 227  23  52  10   1   1  23  23  50   1   1   61
Kevin Mattison    L    CF   26   .208 .276 .306 129 509  67 106  16   8   6  35  39 163  31  11   56
Clint Sammons     R    C    29   .206 .272 .325  61 194  21  40   8   0   5  22  16  51   3   1   59
Nick Green        R    SS   33   .216 .267 .323 112 384  36  83  21   1   6  40  22  97   2   3   58
Chris Gutierrez   R    SS   28   .208 .303 .270 115 400  46  83  16   3   1  31  52 121   4   2   56

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Mike Stanton                                                 VG/111  PO/113  VG/120
Jose Reyes                                            AV/94
Hanley Ramirez                               AV/107   FR/89
Logan Morrison                FR/98                          PO/105
Gaby Sanchez                  AV/91          PO/123
Chris Coghlan                         FR/94  FR/102           FR/88   FR/71
Omar Infante                          AV/88  VG/105  VG/108  AV/110  FR/108  AV/108
Bryan Petersen                                                AV/73  AV/112   AV/73
Emilio Bonifacio                     FR/112  AV/104  FR/107   AV/98  FR/121  AV/105
Donnie Murphy                        AV/114  AV/100   AV/97
Terry Tiffee                 FR/105  PO/101   AV/91
John Buck                FR
Alex Romero                                                   FR/94  FR/133  FR/123
Kyle Jensen                  FR/112                          FR/163          FR/163
Jorge Padilla                AV/119                           AV/81  PO/156  FR/185
Matt Dominguez                                VG/94
Greg Dobbs                   AV/110          FR/107           FR/95          FR/110
Scott Cousins                                                 VG/88  VG/111   VG/84
Josh Kroeger                 AV/126                          FR/108   PO/83  FR/108
Aaron Rowand                                                 VG/109   VG/56  VG/117
Mike Cervenak                 FR/98          PO/106          FR/106          PO/108
Chris Aguila                                                 AV/121  FR/121  AV/111
Donovan Solano                       VG/110   AV/90  PO/126
Luke Montz               VG  FR/107          FR/118          FR/112
Cole Armstrong           AV
Gil Velazquez                AV/114   FR/88   AV/94  FR/108  AV/119
Austin Kearns                                                FR/108   PO/97   AV/82
Brett Hayes              AV  AV/118
Orlando Mercado          AV  AV/109          PO/117
Alfredo Amezaga               AV/85   FR/85   FR/85   AV/85  AV/100  AV/135
Shawn Bowman                 AV/105          AV/134
Ramon Vazquez                        AV/100   PO/93  PO/103
Kevin Mattison                                               VG/104  VG/134  VG/101
Clint Sammons            VG                  PO/115
Nick Green                            FR/98  AV/103  FR/121  FR/109  FR/117  FR/115
Chris Gutierrez                      AV/105  VG/105  AV/105

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Josh Johnson      R      28     2.66     8    3   20   20   128.7  108   38    7   35  123   151
Anibal Sanchez    R      28     3.67    11    8   29   29   174.3  164   71   15   63  159   110
Mark Buehrle      L      33     3.69    11    9   27   27   178.0  186   73   17   40  100   109
Javier Vazquez    R      35     3.75    11    9   27   26   161.0  148   67   19   47  147   107
Carlos Zambrano   R      31     4.20     8    8   27   23   137.0  133   64   13   64  115    96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Ricky Nolasco     R      29     4.21    11   11   29   29   181.7  192   85   21   39  152    95
Chad Gaudin       R      29     4.39     5    5   31   11    82.0   83   40    8   35   71    91
Wade LeBlanc      L      27     4.40     9   10   29   28   163.7  168   80   19   55  124    91
Alex Sanabia      R      23     4.44     4    5   20   18    93.3  102   46   11   21   53    91
J.D. Martin       R      29     4.60     5    6   25   18   105.7  115   54   15   25   66    87
Tom Koehler       R      26     5.05     7   10   26   26   132.0  142   74   15   69   93    80
Elih Villanueva   R      25     5.14     7   11   27   27   154.0  179   88   21   50   87    78
Sean West         L      26     5.25     6    9   19   19    97.7  112   57   11   48   66    76
Omar Poveda       R      24     5.58     5    8   26   26   137.0  161   85   19   63   88    72
Brad Hand         L      22     5.61     7   13   29   28   142.7  156   89   22   90   94    72
Robert Ray        R      28     5.69     3    5   14   13    68.0   77   43   11   35   46    71
Mark McLemore     L      31     5.86     2    3    7    6    27.7   32   18    3   19   14    69
Chad James        L      21     5.91     6   12   25   25   120.3  147   79   15   67   80    68
Dallas Trahern    R      26     6.03     3    6   18   13    77.7   98   52    9   40   33    67
Jeff Allison      R      27     6.88     3    9   28   14    87.7  122   67   16   38   34    58

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Heath Bell        R      34     3.02     5    2   61    0    59.7   50   20    4   23   62   133
Randy Choate      L      36     3.55     2    1   63    0    33.0   28   13    3   15   34   113
Edward Mujica     R      28     3.58     6    4   63    0    75.3   70   30   10   15   68   112
Jose Ceda         R      25     3.62     3    2   50    0    54.7   46   22    5   28   61   111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Juan Oviedo       R      28     3.76     4    3   69    0    64.7   59   27    8   23   60   107
Steven Cishek     R      26     3.92     4    3   53    0    66.7   62   29    4   34   55   103
Ryan Webb         R      26     3.92     4    4   62    0    66.7   68   29    5   25   47   103
Michael Dunn      L      27     3.96     4    4   61    0    63.7   52   28    6   44   73   101
Chris Hatcher     R      27     4.08     1    1   35    0    35.3   33   16    4   17   33    99
Beau Jones        L      25     4.31     2    2   42    1    62.7   59   30    5   37   55    93
Rob Delaney       R      27     4.42     5    6   59    0    73.3   74   36    9   29   58    91
Daniel Jennings   L      25     4.53     3    4   44    0    55.7   57   28    4   33   44    89
Todd Doolittle    R      29     4.66     3    3   26    3    48.3   50   25    6   23   40    86
Peter Andrelczyk  R      26     4.70     5    6   46    1    67.0   69   35    7   35   53    85
Arquimedes CaminerR      25     4.80     1    2   22    0    30.0   29   16    3   24   29    84
Sandy Rosario     R      26     4.83     3    4   53    0    69.0   75   37    8   29   54    83
Evan Reed         R      26     4.93     1    1   31    0    34.7   36   19    3   23   28    81
Chris Sampson     R      34     5.00     3    4   33    8    72.0   86   40    8   20   39    80
Mariano Gomez     L      29     5.09     3    4   27    1    40.7   44   23    4   22   23    79
Adalberto Mendez  R      30     5.28     3    5   29    9    73.3   78   43    9   46   57    76
Ramon Benjamin    L      25     5.80     3    5   40    0    54.3   60   35    7   42   40    69

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Jose Reyes           .290  .337  .431  2218  9442  1441  2736   471   153   186   871   677   927   608   103
Mike Stanton         .261  .365  .517  2629  9051  1435  2363   522    85   541  1564  1410  2638    94   133
Hanley Ramirez       .286  .360  .458  2061  7946  1345  2271   450    42   279  1047   865  1332   427   116
Logan Morrison       .252  .353  .438  1736  6440   888  1622   392    94   207   907   978  1334    35   111
Omar Infante         .275  .317  .383  1601  5558   633  1528   249    54    82   546   349   773    66    87
Aaron Rowand         .267  .324  .424  1597  5156   705  1377   307    21   153   610   298  1104    73    94
Gaby Sanchez         .265  .341  .420  1340  4807   591  1273   283    11   147   640   533   753    41   103
Chris Coghlan        .265  .332  .389  1168  4626   675  1226   274    35    76   403   422   780    97    92
John Buck            .238  .302  .397  1458  4871   505  1161   237    15   168   644   388  1217     4    85
Austin Kearns        .252  .348  .409  1122  3730   534   939   194    14   122   502   488   935    32   100

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Mark Buehrle          236  188    0    3.91  589  564     3753 4020 1632  407  870 2085    112
Javier Vazquez        227  216    0    4.19  613  597     3785 3694 1764  496 1060 3357    103
Carlos Zambrano       174  132    0    3.87  497  432     2724 2475 1170  247 1259 2284    110
Ricky Nolasco         144  136    0    4.45  388  370     2303 2464 1137  291  522 1914     92
Josh Johnson          142   72    0    3.04  348  337     2173 1938  734  148  642 1993    134
Anibal Sanchez        133  115    0    3.83  385  384     2273 2197  966  213  877 2002    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Mike Stanton      RF     62%  23%   9%   5%   2%      Tom Brunansky    Tony Conigliaro       Mark McGwire
Jose Reyes        SS     79%  14%   6%   1%   0%     Carlos Guillen      Rafael Furcal      Jimmy Rollins
Hanley Ramirez    3B     45%  28%  14%   8%   4%          Ken Boyer        Toby Harrah        Ian Kinsler
Logan Morrison    LF     19%  33%  20%  16%  12%           Max West     Mike Stenhouse    Steve DeAngelis
Gaby Sanchez      1B      6%  21%  23%  33%  17%     Ed Kirkpatrick          J.T. Snow         Ryan Garko
Chris Coghlan     CF      6%  13%  28%  32%  21%        Bill Virdon       Mike Kingery        Roy Johnson
Omar Infante      2B      7%  10%  15%  26%  42%       Manny Trillo      Carlos Garcia        Jim Gantner
Bryan Petersen    CF      4%   9%  23%  33%  31%         Jacob Cruz        Rich Becker        Tommy Gregg
Emilio Bonifacio  SS      8%  16%  29%  27%  21%      Jose Vizcaino        Pat Listach      Freddie Patek
Donnie Murphy     SS      9%  14%  27%  28%  22%      Caonabo Cosme     Corey Erickson        Pedro Lopez
Terry Tiffee      1B      0%   1%   2%  10%  86%     Larry Biittner        Glenn Adams       Dusty Wathan
John Buck         C       5%  17%  22%  30%  25%           Al Lopez       Alan Knicely     Kelly Stinnett
Alex Romero       RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%         Tim Leiper         Jake Weber     Ricardo Nanita
Kyle Jensen       LF      0%   1%   3%  10%  85%       Eddie Vargas       Joe Vitiello       Josh Bonifay
Jorge Padilla     RF      1%   1%   2%   6%  91%        Gene Clines     Jason Michaels         Jim Eppard
Matt Dominguez    3B      1%   3%   7%  16%  73%    Terry Jorgensen         Gary Scott          Mike Bell
Greg Dobbs        3B      1%   1%   5%  13%  80%          Wes Helms    Mike Pagliarulo         Garth Iorg
Scott Cousins     RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%        Jalal Leach        John Skurla     Andy Tomberlin
Josh Kroeger      CF      1%   2%   7%  20%  70%       Phil Dauphin   Jason Fitzgerald      Damon Hollins
Aaron Rowand      CF      0%   1%   4%  16%  79%   Darrell Whitmore       Chad Mottola         Emil Brown
Mike Cervenak     1B      0%   0%   1%   4%  96%       Roberto Pena         Bill Stein         Ray Knight
Chris Aguila      RF      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%   Darrell Whitmore       Jerry Martin      Alan Cockrell
Donovan Solano    2B      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%     Jorge Velandia    Alvaro Espinoza    Joshua Lansford
Luke Montz        C       1%   4%   9%  25%  61%     Jeff Ontiveros        Jeff Mathis         Bill Hayes
Cole Armstrong    C       2%   4%   8%  23%  64%        Craig Tatum   Alberto Castillo   Brandon Marsters
Gil Velazquez     SS      1%   2%   6%  17%  74%        Casey Smith        Jose Olmeda       Leo Durocher
Austin Kearns     LF      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%      Junior Spivey        Dustan Mohr        Chris Sheff
Brett Hayes       C       1%   2%   5%  19%  73%   Brandon Marsters        Chris Curry         Jim Horner
Orlando Mercado   C       0%   1%   3%  12%  84%        Raul Chavez         David Duff       Mike Nickeas
Alfredo Amezaga   SS      0%   1%   4%  11%  84%      Willy Miranda     Chris Petersen    Alfredo Griffin
Shawn Bowman      3B      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%         Aaron Herr    Juan Richardson       Raul Tablado
Ramon Vazquez     2B      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%        Dal Maxvill         Kevin Baez       Jeff Branson
Kevin Mattison    CF      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%        Gary Varsho       Tarrik Brock          Eric Reed
Clint Sammons     C       1%   2%   2%   7%  87%    Paul Chiaffredo          Tom Nieto        Dave Ullery
Nick Green        SS      1%   0%   2%   5%  92%      Pete Mackanin          Ray Oyler         Jason Wood
Chris Gutierrez   SS      0%   0%   0%   3%  96%         Drew Niles    Douglas Bernier       Darrin Duffy

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Josh Johnson      SP      92%     3%     5%     Alejandro Pena    Bret Saberhagen    Scott Sanderson
Heath Bell        RP      62%    33%     5%         Jay Howell      Skip Lockwood         Dave Smith
Randy Choate      RP      34%    42%    24%        Tony Fossas      Trever Miller       Mark Guthrie
Edward Mujica     RP      29%    56%    15%       Bruce Walton      Mark Huismann      Jose Melendez
Jose Ceda         RP      33%    46%    21%       Eric Cammack       Ryan Bukvich       Steve Sharts
Anibal Sanchez    SP      51%    44%     5%        Jim Beattie     Kirk McCaskill    Vicente Padilla
Mark Buehrle      SP      50%    40%    10%        Paul Minner           Jim Kaat         Geoff Zahn
Javier Vazquez    SP      46%    48%     6%        Mark Leiter        Mike Krukow       Mike Mussina
Juan Oviedo       RP      24%    50%    25%       La Marr Hoyt      Brian Sanches          Pete Ladd
Steven Cishek     RP      19%    56%    25%       Mike Schultz       Andy Shipman        Clay Bryant
Ryan Webb         RP      14%    53%    33%     David Wilhelmi    Rafael Montalvo       Daryl Irvine
Michael Dunn      RP      15%    46%    39%      Ricky Pickett        Ron Villone    Armando Almanza
Chris Hatcher     RP      20%    39%    42%      Scott Gentile       Jason Bulger         Jose Veras
Carlos Zambrano   SP      18%    58%    23%           Pat Rapp    Vicente Padilla         Bobby Witt
Ricky Nolasco     SP      17%    60%    23%         David Bush   Dennis Eckersley          Jose Lima
Beau Jones        RP       9%    43%    48%       Brian Snyder      Scott Wiggins     Carlos Vasquez
Chad Gaudin       SP       6%    41%    53%      Steve Shields        Mike LaCoss         Mike Ayers
Wade LeBlanc      SP      11%    58%    31%        Rick Krivda      Glenn Dishman      Lance Painter
Rob Delaney       RP       4%    35%    60%       Rob Stanifer      Joseph Haines     Rick Heiserman
Alex Sanabia      SP      16%    46%    38%     Dave Telgheder      Jose Martinez        Gil Heredia
Daniel Jennings   RP       4%    35%    61%         Gary Wayne       Mike Venafro       Brian Snyder
J.D. Martin       SP      12%    40%    48%    Ryan Hawblitzel        Kris Wilson        Matt Ginter
Todd Doolittle    RP       6%    26%    68%       Bo Donaldson       Rick Luecken       Jesus Colome
Peter Andrelczyk  RP       3%    27%    70% Anastacio Martinez      Jordan DeJong        Steve Hoeme
Arquimedes CaminerRP       8%    29%    64%         Josh Banks         Jeff Smith    Rafael Pimentel
Sandy Rosario     RP       2%    25%    73%      Danny Rueckel   Jamie Brewington       Chris Mabeus
Evan Reed         RP       6%    22%    72%         Jeff Smith       Pete Sikaras       Steve LaRose
Chris Sampson     RP       3%    18%    79%      Jose Bautista          Mark Ross      Mickey Weston
Tom Koehler       SP       1%    26%    73%       Don Robinson        Jared Wells      Brett Roberts
Mariano Gomez     RP       3%    21%    76%        Bryan Clark         Todd Rizzo          Ted Wills
Elih Villanueva   SP       0%    17%    82%          Bill King    Cameron Reimers     Andrew Baldwin
Sean West         SP       1%    17%    82%          Phil Coke      Ben Kozlowski      Charlie Hough
Adalberto Mendez  RP       1%     9%    91%   Jarod Juelsgaard        Steve Green            Ken Ray
Omar Poveda       SP       0%     6%    94%       David Pauley        Jim Johnson         Rick Bauer
Brad Hand         SP       0%     4%    96%        Tom Fischer       Shawn Bryant         Tom Singer
Robert Ray        SP       1%     8%    91%      Chris Beasley    Doug Gogolewski       Kerry Taylor
Ramon Benjamin    RP       0%     4%    96%        Erick Burke        Carmen Cali     Julio Guerrero
Mark McLemore     SP       5%    16%    79%      David Manning         Jim Abbott          Dan Smith
Chad James        SP       0%     3%    97%       Larry Thomas     Bruce Lockhart         Mark Freed
Dallas Trahern    SP       0%     4%    96%       Kevin Hodges        Andy Larkin     Edwardo Sierra
Jeff Allison      SP       0%     0%   100%      Brian Sweeney           Dave Gil    Scott Shoemaker

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Mike Stanton            12%      31%      75%      10%      11%      77%      47%       0%
Jose Reyes              53%      23%      24%       1%      67%       2%      13%      55%
Hanley Ramirez          26%      35%      20%       1%       0%       7%      14%      40%
Logan Morrison           5%      30%      14%       3%      25%       3%       9%       0%
Gaby Sanchez            10%      15%       5%       4%       0%       3%       3%       0%
Chris Coghlan            6%       6%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%       3%
Omar Infante            24%       3%       1%       0%       7%       0%       1%       0%
Bryan Petersen           4%       6%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Emilio Bonifacio         7%       4%       0%       0%      26%       0%       0%      52%
Donnie Murphy            2%       1%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Terry Tiffee            18%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John Buck                1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Alex Romero              4%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kyle Jensen              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Jorge Padilla            7%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Matt Dominguez           1%       1%       1%       5%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Greg Dobbs               4%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Scott Cousins            1%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Kroeger             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Aaron Rowand             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Cervenak            2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Aguila             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Donovan Solano           2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Luke Montz               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cole Armstrong           2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gil Velazquez            2%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Austin Kearns            1%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brett Hayes              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Orlando Mercado          1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alfredo Amezaga          2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Shawn Bowman             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ramon Vazquez            2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Mattison           0%       0%       0%       0%      34%       0%       0%      50%
Clint Sammons            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Green               0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Gutierrez          0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Josh Johnson              82%        94%        72%        22%        98%
Heath Bell                54%        90%        88%         2%        94%
Randy Choate              34%        67%        77%         2%        79%
Edward Mujica             23%        76%        53%        78%        38%
Jose Ceda                 26%        73%        93%         0%        75%
Anibal Sanchez            17%        79%        55%         0%        83%
Mark Buehrle              20%        70%         2%        55%        76%
Javier Vazquez            12%        74%        58%        10%        49%
Juan Oviedo               18%        61%        64%         4%        52%
Steven Cishek             19%        69%        29%         0%        95%
Ryan Webb                 10%        53%         4%         2%        87%
Michael Dunn              11%        54%        97%         0%        67%
Chris Hatcher             20%        48%        55%         1%        71%
Carlos Zambrano            3%        42%        27%         0%        74%
Ricky Nolasco              2%        41%        25%        57%        50%
Beau Jones                 6%        44%        42%         0%        82%
Chad Gaudin                4%        34%        35%         0%        68%
Wade LeBlanc               1%        30%         7%         1%        47%
Rob Delaney                3%        27%        15%         1%        46%
Alex Sanabia               3%        35%         0%        54%        43%
Daniel Jennings            4%        32%        16%         0%        88%
J.D. Martin                3%        25%         1%        46%        32%
Todd Doolittle             3%        25%        28%         1%        51%
Peter Andrelczyk           2%        24%        14%         0%        57%
Arquimedes Caminer         8%        27%        62%         0%        66%
Sandy Rosario              1%        21%        14%         0%        62%
Evan Reed                  3%        20%        22%         0%        73%
Chris Sampson              2%        18%         1%        27%        55%
Tom Koehler                0%         6%         2%         0%        55%
Mariano Gomez              2%        18%         2%         0%        74%
Elih Villanueva            0%         3%         0%         2%        26%
Sean West                  0%         4%         1%         0%        56%
Adalberto Mendez           0%         5%        13%         0%        50%
Omar Poveda                0%         1%         0%         0%        28%
Brad Hand                  0%         0%         0%         0%        17%
Robert Ray                 0%         2%         3%         0%        25%
Ramon Benjamin             0%         3%         9%         0%        50%
Mark McLemore              1%         9%         1%         0%        64%
Chad James                 0%         0%         1%         0%        40%
Dallas Trahern             0%         1%         0%         0%        63%
Jeff Allison               0%         0%         0%         0%        12%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

]]> 2012-02-06T18:39:59+00:00 http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/blogpen/comments/craig_biggio Eligible in 2013.