Hall of Merit Ballot, Discussion and Results Thread - All the threads that were created for any HoM election, including our mock HOF and Veterans Committee elections.
Our Constitution - The rules we’ve set up.
Something Better - The article that introduced all of this.
Pennants Added - Combining peak and career value.
New Eligibles by Year - Who’s eligible this ‘year’?
Selected 19th Century Candidates
Selected 20th Century Candidates
Links to discussions of Negro League Candidates
Links to discussions of Latino Stars/Candidates
Discussion on Estimating the Quality of League Play
List of Hall of Merit Voters Past and Present
The Spitter, Steroids, and the One-Year Boycott
HoM Election History, Data and Analysis (hosted by “friend of the HoM” Paul Wendt)
Amendment to cover new voters and challenges to ballots
Baseball Prospectus: Japanese Baseball: How Good Is It?
Battle of the Uber-Stat Systems (Win Shares vs. WARP)!
Credits and Deductions for WW II Players
Dan Rosenheck’s WARP Data
Discussion of changing the number of electees by year
Discussion of Negro League candidates
Discussion of Token Appearances
Do we need a Centennial Commission?
50th Anniversary Team
The Greatest Player Ever?
Hall of Fame’s 2006 Negro League Election
Hall of Merit - The Early Years
The HoM Half Time Show!
Hall of Merit Website
Let’s get to know each other
Major League Equivalencies
Monte Irvin to the LF ballot
Negro League Win Shares Estimates
Once We Catch-Up: The Hall of Merit After 2007
Pennants Added 2.0 (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Pennants Added Pitchers (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Ranking the Hall of Merit Players That Are Not in the Hall of Fame
Reevaluating Negro League Pitchers
Register to vote
Relief Pitchers
2B vs. 3B before 1920
Term Limits or Perpetual Eligibility For Candidates?
Voters Personal Halls of Merit
Established in 2003, the HoM welcomes any new voters who are serious about inducting the most worthy candidates from all eras and positions.
Annual elections will be held around December of each year. Prior to December of 2007, retroactive elections were held once or twice a month starting from 1898 up to the present.
Project coordinator John Murphy helps run the day-to-day activities for the HoM.
The Baseball Hall of Merit Plaque Room - Where we honor the greatest players of all-time.
2009 Election Results, 2008 Election Results - The results from our last two elections.
]]>Finally, a consolidated home page, with all of our important links.
The Hall of Merit Plaque Room - Where we honor the greatest players of all-time.
Our Constitution - The rules we’ve set up. Something Better - the article that introduced all of this.
Positional Threads (which will be updated . . . ) Pennants Added - combining peak and career value.
New Eligibles by Year - who’s eligible this ‘year’? Number of Electees by Year
Links to discussions of Negro League Stars
Links to discussions of Latino Stars
Discussion on Estimating the Quality of League Play
Election Results: 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1972, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1958, 1957, 1956, 1955, 1954, 1953, 1952, 1951, 1950, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1946, 1945, 1944, 1943, 1942, 1941, 1940, 1939, 1938, 1937, 1936, 1935, 1934, 1933, 1932, 1931, 1930, 1929, 1928, 1927, 1926, 1925, 1924, 1923, 1922, 1921, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1916, 1915, 1914, 1913, 1912, 1911, 1910, 1909, 1908, 1907, 1906, 1905, 1904, 1903, 1902, 1901, 1900, 1899, 1898
Ballot Threads: 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1972, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1958, 1957, 1956, 1955, 1954, 1953, 1952, 1951, 1950, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1946, 1945, 1944, 1943, 1942, 1941, 1940, 1939, 1938, 1937, 1936, 1935, 1934, 1933, 1932, 1931, 1930, 1929, 1928, 1927, 1926, 1925, 1924, 1923, 1922, 1921, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1916, 1915, 1914, 1913, 1912, 1911, 1910, 1909, 1908, 1907, 1906, 1905, 1904, 1903, 1902, 1901, 1900, 1899, 1898
Ballot Discussion Threads: 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996, 1995, 1994, 1993, 1992, 1991, 1990, 1989, 1988, 1987, 1986, 1985, 1984, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1976, 1975, 1974, 1973, 1972, 1971, 1970, 1969, 1968, 1967, 1966, 1965, 1964, 1963, 1962, 1961, 1960, 1959, 1958, 1957, 1956, 1955, 1954, 1953, 1952, 1951, 1950, 1949, 1948, 1947, 1946, 1945, 1944, 1943, 1942, 1941, 1940, 1939, 1938, 1937, 1936, 1935, 1934, 1933, 1932, 1931, 1930, 1929, 1928, 1927, 1926, 1925, 1924, 1923, 1922, 1921, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1916, 1915, 1914, 1913, 1912, 1911, 1910, 1909, 1908, 1907, 1906, 1905, 1904, 1903, 1902, 1901, 1900, 1899, 1898
Season by season recaps: 1876, 1875, 1874, 1873, 1872, 1871
2005 Hall of Fame Ballot
2005 HOF Results
2006 Hall of Fame Ballot
2006 Hall of Fame Ballot Discussion
2006 HOF Results
Amendment to cover new voters and challenges to ballots
Battle of the Uber-Stat Systems (Win Shares vs. WARP)!
Credits and Deductions for WW II Players
Discussion of changing the number of electees by year
Discussion of Negro League candidates
Discussion of Token Appearances
Do we need a Centennial Commission?
50th Anniversary Team
The Greatest Player Ever?
Hall of Fame’s 2006 Negro League Election
The HoM Half Time Show!
Let’s get to know each other
Major League Equivalencies
Negro League Win Shares Estimates
Pennants Added 2.0 (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Pennants Added Pitchers (Updated For the 1949 Ballot)
Reevaluating Negro League Pitchers
Register to vote
Relief Pitchers
2B vs. 3B before 1920
Selected 19th Century Players
Selected 20th Century Players
Term Limits or Perpetual Eligibility For Candidates?
Voters Personal Halls of Merit
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These are the Callis (BA), Sickels and Law (ESPN) top tens:
1) Middlebrooks 1) Bogaerts 1) Bogaerts (62)
2) Bogaerts 2) Barnes 2) Swihart (100)
3) Swihart 3) Middlebrooks 3) Middlebrooks
4) Ranaudo 4) Lavarnway 4) Lavarnway
5) Brentz 5) Cecchini 5) Barnes
6) Jacobs 6) Jacobs 6) Ranaudo
7) Cecchini 7) Swihart 7) Jacobs
8) Barnes 8) Coyle 8) Brentz
9) Lavarnway 9) Brentz 9) Cecchini
10) Bradley, Jr 10) Ranaudo 10) Britton
My tendencies, just looking at the numbers, are to be skeptical of Middlebrooks (too many Ks for a guy without great on-contact numbers) and very skeptical of Brentz (too many Ks and way too old for the only level he performed well at). One thing that I think has been under-reported, just a little, is what a huge breakout last year was for Lavarnway. There’s no assurance that a guy who puts up a 900 OPS in the Carolina League will be able to do the same in the Eastern and International Leagues, and and the latter performances are far, far better than the former. Lavarnway’s 2010 was nice, but his 2011 MLE would have made him an above average MLB designated hitter (330/450). The projection systems take into account that this was a spike in the numbers and downgrade him significantly, but if his 2011 was a real qualitative improvement, then the boorish one is probably the best player in the system.
I’m also vaguely optimistic about Garin Cecchini, the lone low-minors prospect in the Red Sox system who doesn’t strike out every third time he comes to the plate.
One thing I can basically agree with is Keith Law’s ranking and evaluation of the Sox system. He puts them #18, a bit below average but by no means barren of talent, and says:
This system is terribly thin up top given the money the Red Sox have spent in the past few years on amateur players. I do see a large group of prospects from low Class A and below that should produce a couple of breakout prospects in 2012, including Brandon Jacobs, Garin Cecchini, Henry Owens, Matt Barnes and Sean Coyle.
The Sox have gotten poor results from their drafting and development in the last few years, and what talent they did produce they’ve traded away, but given the ridiculous performance of the system up through 2008 or so, it’s hard to complain. There’s so much talent in the low minors now that, just with normal luck and normal development, next year really should be a good year for the minors. Which would be nice.
]]>Remember to put 12 names on your ballot. Expanded postseason means more opportunity for postseason credit.
Voting will end on February 22nd 2012.
Player Win BB-ref
Shares WAR
Rico Petrocelli 36.1 9.3
Reggie Jackson 39.9 9.7
Willie McCovey 39.3 8.9
Henry Aaron 37.2 8.3
Frank Robinson 31.8 7.4
Jim Wynn 36.1 8.1
Harmon Killebrew 33.8 6.1
Bobby Bonds 31.0 6.5
Pete Rose 36.8 6.9
Rusty Staub 26.4 5.9
Leo Cardenas 23.7 4.6
Jim Fregosi 25.8 5.2
Cleon Jones 30.0 7.6
Frank Howard 33.5 6.3
Sal Bando 35.3 8.9
Roberto Clemente 27.7 7.4
Johnny Bench 29.9 6.1
Paul Blair 27.0 6.2
Tony Perez 30.4 5.6
Luis Aparicio 19.7 3.9
Willie Stargell 27.0 5.2
Roy White 21.7 3.8
Carl Yastrzemski 25.4 4.6
Tommie Agee 28.1 5.6
Joe Morgan 24.0 4.2
Ron Santo 25.6 6.1
Rod Carew 21.5 5.1
Ken McMullen 23.6 6.2
Boog Powell 26.6 5.2
Bob Gibson 31.3 11.0
Larry Dierker 25.6 9.0
Denny McLain 28.6 7.5
Juan Marichal 28.9 8.5
Steve Carlton 23.2 7.2
Bill Hands 28.3 8.8
Phil Niekro 27.7 6.6
Tom Seaver 31.7 7.6
Claude Osteen 24.7 6.2
Andy Messersmith 21.5 5.1
Bill Singer 26.9 7.3
Jim Perry 20.6 5.3
Tommy John 17.6 5.2
Sam McDowell 21.2 6.3
Ferguson Jenkins 24.7 7.6
Mel Stottlemyre 25.3 5.3
Gaylord Perry 26.5 7.8
Jerry Koosman 26.0 6.7
Mike Cuellar 24.6 4.3
Ron Perranoski 19.4 4.0
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Longtime poster and minor league expert Temple U Sox argued that the reason is simple: under the new CBA, baseball basically has a salary cap. The reports on this came out in December, but I missed them and I think most other folks did too. The official Collective Bargaining Agreement still hasn’t been released, so it’s possible that these reports are incorrect or incomplete. I’m having trouble parsing the information, so I’m hoping that writing a blog post will get some people in here who understand the issues better than I do.
The initial report came from Darren Rovell at CNBC, and it was picked up (or reported independently) by Christopher Gasper at the Globe. This is Gasper’s explanation:
The new CBA decrees that 15 large-market teams, including the Sox, are prohibited from receiving initial revenue sharing dollars—MLB teams must put a percentage of their local revenue (it was 31 percent under the old CBA) into a pool that is distributed evenly to all 30 MLB clubs. Beginning in 2013 the large-market clubs that don’t exceed the luxury tax threshold will be “rebated” some percentage of their revenue sharing contribution, with the percentage rising to a 100 percent in 2016.
It’s hard to get a good estimate of how much the Red Sox receive in initial revenue sharing, but according to Maury Brown writing at BA, revenue sharing re-distributed $433M from big-market teams to small-market teams in 2009. Gasper explains that revenue sharing works by pooling a share of all clubs’ local revenue and then dividing it evenly, so if $433M is being re-distributed, then the total payouts to all clubs must be larger than $433M. That gives us, at least, a hard floor - initial revenue sharing receipts are at minimum $15M for each club. Being even a single dollar over the luxury tax threshold would cost a team more than $15M in revenue, probably much more. That would function as a de facto hard cap, an effective fine of tens of millions of dollars for any team with a payroll over the luxury tax threshold.
As I said, I’m struggling to parse this all out, and on a number of points I’m skeptical that this explanation is correct. The first issue with this explanation is that Rovell and Gasper say that the “rebate” rule doesn’t kick in until 2013. So, then, why would the Red Sox be acting as if they have a hard cap for the 2012 season? The Red Sox can’t take on any added salary for 2013, because they have very few contracts coming off the books next year, but if there’s no hard cap yet, they should have the money for one-year deals for folks like Scutaro or Oswalt. Perhaps this means the Sox will have another contract to add even if it takes them over the threshold, though then the Scutaro dump is even less explicable. Perhaps the rebate rule or some approximation of it comes into effect in 2012. I can’t quite make all the pieces of the story line up.
Further, as I’ll outline in the comments, this system looks like a terrible deal for competitive balance, a salary cap at the cost of revenue sharing, a salary cap that enriches the wealthiest owners while hurting the smallest markets. I really hope that this report is incorrect or at least significantly incomplete.
]]>Balloting will close at 4pm EST on 25 January 2012.
Anyone can vote, even if you haven’t said a word yet in any of the MMP threads. If you missed the last election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 23 January 2012..
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