You Have Got To Be Kidding Me

Last season the New York Mets set a dubious record.  Greatest differential between Grand Slams hit and Grand Slams allowed, from the Allowed perspective.  At least as far as I can find on Baseball-Reference.  The Mets allowed 12 grand slams in 2010, and hit zero.  Zero.  The Mets offensive struggles with the bases loaded were well documented - they had an OPS of .590 with the bases drunk.  I also watched as they allowed, seemingly, a salami at every possible opportunity.  The Mets allowed 12 ...

Reconciliation - Getting Defensive Stats and Statheads Back Together

There is lots of skepticism around defensive statistics.  Wrongly so, in my opinion, but I am probably a little biased.  Yes, they aren’t perfect, but there is no reason to throw the baby out with the bathwater.  The idea behind the stats is solid.  There is some differing opinions around the treatment of the data, but otherwise, the defensive stats community does believe we are in the right general area.

Except for a few people and one of them is Colin Wyers.  Colin Wyers, in case you ...

Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru July 19, 2010)

This week’s data

Another week has passed and the separation between the top fielder and the bottom fielder has remained nearly constant.  The top fielder after 85 games is about +10 and the worst fielder is about -10.  And that’s just top to bottom, not even considering the smaller gaps from each position. 

A good deal of the chatter the last couple of weeks has focused on pitcher responsibility for fielding success.  I wrote a bit about this about a year ago.  It was called Defensive ...

Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru July 14, 2010)

Defensive stats through the All-Star Break

We reached the ASB, and innings are starting to pile up for players.  The NL still has an idle Chase Utley at the top, but his numbers are regressing, and Scott Rolen is still climbing.  Justin Upton and Matt Holliday lead the outfielders.  The American leader is now Brett Gardner, and as he plays more LF instead of center, he’ll continue to add value.  Brandon Inge and Jose Lopez are still starring at third base.

The trailers in each league are ...

Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru July 4, 2010)

This week’s data.

The American League leaders in defense are the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners.  The agrees with the pre-season view that these teams were defensive minded and the data is supporting that thus far.  For the individual performances, the levels are the same as the last few weeks, with Brett Gardner moving up.  As you can see, attempting to describe these numbers as “projecting for the season”, won’t work.  The DRS isn’t a linear performance.  The baseline constantly moves ...

Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru Jun 29, 2010)

This week’s update

Okay, I was a day late with this week’s update, but I was playing golf at Bethpage Black and Merion Golf Club this past weekend, so I had other priorities.  My feet hurt after all that walking. 

The American League leaders and trailers are about the same, with Brandon Inge and Brett Gardner joining Jose Lopez and Cliff Pennington near the top.  Howie Kendrick still brings up the rear, with Jeter holding steady at -11 DRS.

In the National League, Chase Utley is still atop ...

Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru Jun 20, 2010)

This week’s update.

Utley and Andres Torres still lead the NL.  Cliff Pennington and Jose Lopez lead the AL.  The Mariners had a good defensive week, catching the Tigers for the best defense in the AL, and the Padres maintained their excellence in the NL. 

The trailing players also remain the same with Kendrick nosing out Jeter, and Aki Iwamura still at the NL bottom.  Questions or comments?

Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats Thru Jun 13, 2010)

June 13, 2010 DRS Year to Date.

There aren’t any changes from last week with respect to the top and bottom fielders.  I suppose that’s good - a lack of volatility. 

Last week, Russ noted the poor ranking of Pittsburgh, and Mike Emeigh has noted some Pittsburgh oddness before.  I don’t see any reason why the park *would* have those oddities, or have a strong park factor.  Perhaps Colin or MGL or AROM (or some other person studying that) can chime in on what they see in Pittsburgh, because ...

Weekly DRS Update (Defensive Stats through games of June 6, 2010)

Google Doc of DRS

Best defensive player in the NL thus far has been Chase Utley, which is pretty typical.  Chase is several runs ahead of the Angel Pagan, Andres Torres and Matt Holliday.  The player with the worst DRS is Pittsburgh’s Aki Iwamura, but that whole Pirate team is a mess.  Honorable mention to the Bucs’ Lastings Milledge and the Astros’ Carlos Lee.  The surprise here is Pedro Feliz.  Maybe he finally hit the wall, but he has always been a very good defensive player and as yet has ...

Daily Dose of Defense

We were discussing defensive analysis recently.  Me, AROM, CW, Tango, Peter and we talked about lots of things.  One of which is the regular availability of any stat that people want to use in discussions, and to make it readily available.  Sean Forman recently added AROM’s TotalZone to his site, and you can check out the leaders daily.  That’s always nice.  People have been enjoying Fangraphs defensive leader boards.  Both of these resources will also show you offensive leaders.  Offensive ...

NOT authorized by Major League Baseball or its Member Teams

This piece will not show the logos of MLB teams, nor their team names, only the cities.  Okay, not really, as I am not sponsored by Upper Deck (as Bernal might be). 

Whatever might I be referring to?  For my birthday (last week), I got baseball cards.  Since I was about 8 years old, when asked what I wanted for my birthday, I have always said “Baseball Cards”.  And I have usually gotten them.  Even when I get some, I always buy some for myself.  With all the different brands and levels of ...

2009 NL OPD (Offense Plus Defense)

Everyone on the Stathead side of the aisle was pretty happy with the MVP awards this season.  There was plenty of the usual hand-wringing over how much the BBWAA would screw them up.  Then Statheads patted the BBWAA on the head and themselves on the back when Albert Pujols won.  But should he have won?  Don’t get me wrong, Albert Pujols is a fantastic player and is certainly an MVP candidate year-in and year-out.  However, he wasn’t anything like Joe Mauer over in the American League.

The ...

2009 AL OPD (Offense Plus Defense)

The MVP voting went along the lines most people thought it should, and so it won’t be a surprise in who led the American League in OPD in 2009.  People did want to claim that Joe Mauer didn’t spread his performance out over as many games as other candidates, like Derek Jeter or Mark Teixeira, but the amount he produced then increases the chances they win the games that he does play.  That’s one of the aspects of analyzing data like this.  Mauer was a catcher, which makes him very valuable in ...

Live from SABR 39!

I hope everyone is having as good a day as I am.  I arrived in DC yesterday for SABR 39, and enjoyed standing around and shaking hands with the guys.  Yes, it was at the hotel bar before I ever saw my room.  Joe Dimino, Ben and Stacy Jacobs, Matt Rauseo, Anthony Giacalone and Mike McCullough, Mike Emeigh and Mike Webber.  We started there, then moved on to a place for other drinks whose name escapes me where we met up with (first names only) Nathan, SJ, Tim, Aaron, Chone, Sean Forman, Josh, ...

Steve Austin is not a Baseball Player

We are NOT bigger, stronger and faster. 

I know that flies in the face of human progression, but many analysts forget the economies of developing countries when considering the growth of baseball.  Yes, scouts do a better job in Latin America, both the Caribbean and South America, and Latin America (which in grade school I learned was Mexico and the myriad of countries between Mexico and South America.  Of course, that was 1974, and that may be completely inappropriate these days.)

Every ...

The Importance of Being Baseball

Nothing says “Baseball” like cucumber sandwiches and bottles of champagne.  I love baseball, and it is definitely a central feature in my life.  I can recall tucking my little girl in at night and whispering, “I love you more than anything”, to have her whisper back, “More than the Mets?”  Ah, from the mouths of babes. 

Of course not more than the Mets – I’ve had the Mets for forty years and her for seven.  She’s a terrific kid, and given time, maybe the same twenty-seven ...

Defensive Replacement Level Defined

Okay, this is a “look what I found” post, so I’m not drawing conclusions, but looking at data and saying, “What does this mean?” in hopes that the peer-review world of sabermetrics can take this type of information and run with it.  One of keys to more advancement is open-source, which enables others, like Joe Arthur, Sean Smith, Colin Wyers, who are better at database work than I am, to see where they can take the information. 

At any rate, a few years ago, when I was doing the 20-years ...

Final 2008 Offense Plus Defense (OPD) Results

With the ALCS wrapped (Congratulations all you former Durham Bulls!), and three days off until the World Series starts, I thought I’d get the end-of-year results for offense and defense posted.  It will enhance your “Who should be MVP?” debates.  It will contain the best fielders and best hitters, so you can work out your Gold Glove and Silver Slugger pools.  People can even pay off on their bets where “Who is better?” came up.  Most importantly for all the fans of teams who are eliminated, you ...

AL MVP Race - Offense Plus Defense (OPD) - Through Sept 02, 2008

Carlos Quentin? Dustin Pedrioia? Alex Rodriguez?  Who is the best candidate for the AL MVP?  Has Pedroia’s recent hot streak and media hype lifted him to a top five candidate?  He’s certainly played well enough to be the best player on his team.  Or has he?

What follows is a discussion of the AL OPD (offense plus defense) leaders and who should be headed for the MVP.  Sometimes the month of September can be enough to move players in this ranking when they are tightly bunched.  So, while these ...

Offense Plus Defense (OPD) - NL Through Sept 02, 2008

Oh, goodness.  The races are tightening up and the MVP talks are starting to percolate.  Yes, kids, the New York Yankees will not be participating in the post-season for the first time in well over a decade - but I think their post-season run falls short of the Braves (although the Braves was interrupted in 1994, so they didn’t win the division that year).  The Yankees place was taken by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  What a great country! 

What follows is a discussion of the NL OPD (offense plus ...

AL Defensive Stats through August 7

We have looked at the National League defense to date, and here is the American League defense.  I did learn from the NL data that posting defensive stats without a link to the basis of the calculations is a mistake.  So the methodology is located here.  Many people mix the leagues, but I prefer to keep them apart as chances can very since you face pitchers versus DHs.

Here is the entire spreadsheet, and then a few comments about each position.  Please remember that the pitcher and catchers ...

NL Defensive Stats to date

Sure, everyone can go to BPro everyday and check out Albert Pujols’ VORP.  Or whatever your favorite site is and its Offensive Stat du jour.Well, if you really want to know how good a player is/has been you need to add his defense to that.  Is Manny going to be okay in Chavez Ravine?  Does David Wright deserve a second Gold Glove?  What you need though is a regularly updated place where you can see how a player is doing the moment you are having that argument or writing that blog piece.  Well, ...

National League Leaders at the All Star Break (Offense Plus Defense)

The NL has some wonderful performances so far.  Chipper Jones flirted with .400 for a couple of months, and Dan “Please don’t hit it to me” Uggla has had a great season.  How does the league line up - and who is in the driver’s seat for the MVP?

The data here is “runs against average”.  The offense is calculated using Extrapolated Runs, but the number I have will approximate any run formula - RC, LW, EQR.  The Defense is converting Zone Rating to runs (as you can read about here).  The run ...

American League Leaders at the All-Star Break (Offense Plus Defense)

With the season at a break, we can get a snapshot of where players are performing thusfar, and see how they are helping, or hurting their team.  the data here is “runs against average”.  The offense is calculated using Extrapolated Runs, but the number I have will approximate any run formula - RC, LW, EQR.  The Defense is converting Zone Rating to runs (as you can read about here).  The run values are very close to MGL’s UZR (usually).  the definition of “Position” is the innings at which a ...

Take Me Out to the Ball Game

Holy cow!  For those of you not paying attention, the Tampa Bay Devi, er, Rays are in first place with a solid lead in July.  They finished last (or so) for a decade (or so) and horded talent, and now they have a good young team.  It helps to rip off the Mets in the newest version of the “Worst Trade Ever”.  I live near Durham, NC.  The Durham Bulls are the AAA affiliate of the Rays.  Just flipping through my scorebook, I have names like Crawford, Winn, Longoria, Upton, Dukes, Young, Cantu, ...

2007 NL OPD (Offense Plus Defense)

What follows is a list of “total player run contribution” for the entire 2007 NL.  For defense, it has Defensive Runs Saved at each position a player played, and his total.  For offense, it has his Plate Appearances, his Outs Made, and his Extrapolated Runs Above Average at his primary position, park adjusted.  These are not adjusted to “162 games”, but for the player’s actual playing time.

Name              TEAM      1B      2B      3B       C      CF      LF      RF      SS Grand Tot    PA   ...

2007 AL OPD (Offense Plus Defense)

What follows is a list of “total player run contribution” for the entire 2007 AL.  For defense, it has Defensive Runs Saved at each position a player played, and his total.  For offense, it has his Plate Appearances, his Outs Made, and his Extrapolated Runs Above Average at his primary position, park adjusted.  These are not adjusted to “162 games”, but for the player’s actual playing time.

Name             Team  pos    1B     2B     3B      C     CF     LF     RF     SS Grand Tot      PA   ...

The 2007 National League MVP

I read lots of articles about who should be the MVP.  Albert Pujols, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday – and Jimmy Rollins won.  What I don’t see is an itemized offense plus defense (OPD) analysis to say “this guy should have won the MVP”.  Naturally, if the OPD is terrifically close between some players, we’ll tweak it toward something like better Win Probability Added (WPA), a tougher defensive position, or a player on my favorite team.  Whatever seems ...

Threatening the Owners

It takes a lot to threaten MLB owners.  Marvin Miller did it.  Don Fehr has done it.  You argue from a position of bettering the work environment, and a strike ensues.  The threat has to be credible, and at first, few take it seriously.  Only when it hurts do people see it means business, and sometimes even then stubbornness ignores the threat.

This morning at about 1 AM, FOX Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal threatened the owners.  Rosenthal threatened the owners that if one were to dare sign ...

2007 Team Defense

There is no “team” offense.  Yes, there are bunts and hit-and-runs, but that’s a small part of offense.  There are mostly individual acts of hitting, representing upwards of 95% of a player’s offensive contributions.  You very rarely hear that a team plays good team offense.  You will see cumulative team stats, but most analysts have no problem reading a team line as the sum of its parts.

Sadly that type of understanding isn’t true about defense.  There is very little “team” in ...