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Saturday, August 09, 2008

AL Defensive Stats through August 7

We have looked at the National League defense to date, and here is the American League defense.  I did learn from the NL data that posting defensive stats without a link to the basis of the calculations is a mistake.  So the methodology is located here.  Many people mix the leagues, but I prefer to keep them apart as chances can very since you face pitchers versus DHs.

Here is the entire spreadsheet, and then a few comments about each position.  Please remember that the pitcher and catchers data isn’t reflective of mch of anything as there are very few chances and nearly every play is made.  Also recall that for players with a small number of chances, each misplay makes a larger difference, just like in offensive stats, sample size is a factor.

First Base: Daric Barton (+6) and Lyle Overbay (+6) are in a dead heat.  Overbay has lots more innings.  Richie Sexson (-9) has been just awful.  He’s just not fielding at all, and was bad in Seattle and has been worse for the Yankees.  You might as well just leave Giambi out there.

Second Base:Once again, the A’s Mark Ellis (+14) is the best 2B in the AL.  He’s a much better fielder than anyone else in the AL, and can really only see competition from Chase Utley.  Utley isn’t having a strong season, and Ellis just keeps rolling along.  Barton and Ellis?  Is defense the new market inefficiency?  The poorest fielder has also been a Mariner.  Jose Lopez (-10) has already seen 400 chances, so he’s not helping the Mariners season.

Third Base:Shocked, I tell you, shocked!  Scott Rolen (+11) for Toronto is the best fielder at third base.  He generally is, and remaining healthy (mostly) is a big help.  The good news for the Mariners is that Adrian Beltre (+10) is actually playing up to his reputation and his history.  Alex Gordon (-15) is struggling.

Shortstop:Orlando Cabrera (+8) is playing good defense for the White Sox.  Maicer Izturis (+5) and Erick Aybar (+6), splitting time for the Angels, have actually posted a better mark combined.  That solid play is keeping the Angels atop the league.  Brendan Harris (-9) is struggling, but he only has 430 innings.  Michael Young (-3) is perennially one of the trailers, and of full-time players he has the lowest mark.

Left Field:Carl Crawford (+13) is doubling up the next left fielder.  His play is one of the things that keeps the Rays at the top.  Down at the bottom, another Mariner, Raul Ibanez (-12) is playing poorly.  He was dead last in 2007, I believe.

Center Field:It may not have seemed like the Twins got much for Johan Santana, but Carlos Gomez (+14) is nearly half a win better than the next CF defensively.  That’s got to be good for something.  Well, it’s not a bag a used baseballs.  Orioles CF Adam Jones (+9) is second in the ratings.  Coco Crisp (-10) is the lowest.

Right Field:Last year, Franklin Gutierrez (+12) didn’t play enough innings to really qualify for a DRS Gold Glove, but he’s at 500+ innings now, and has a sizable lead in right.  His defensive talent ceiling could be +20.  As for stats, he’s caught 122 of 123 chances.  That’s Kearnsian.  Bobby Abreu (-20) was a good fielder not that long ago.  Old age is hell.  He’s also seeing more chances than average, so that isn’t helping at all.  Abreu’s defense is the worst in the AL.  That’s not going to get the Yankees to the post-season.

Teams:Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays infield was terrific, and I wondered if they had a coach that worked on that.  This year, the Jays (+38) are repeating stellar defense.  The A’s (+30) are the second best, anchored by Mark Ellis.  The worst defensive teams aren’t a big surprise.  They feature a corner OF in CF and a 2B playing SS - the Texas Rangers (-35).  The secnd worst team is actually in the post-season hunt, albeit pretty close to being out of it - the Yankees (-31).

So ther eyou have it.  These are two-thirds of a season, so they are still a little small on the sample size, and some are really low.  Try not to focus on players with few innings or chances.  Now, Abreu’s stinkitude is real, so don’t discount that either.

Chris Dial Posted: August 09, 2008 at 06:18 PM | 47 comment(s) | Bookmark
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   1. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: August 10, 2008 at 02:10 AM (#2897073)
This is awesome, but I've really heard enough about "new market inefficiency" and "undervalued". It's now painful for me. And not just because the A's aren't very good.
   2. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: August 10, 2008 at 02:21 AM (#2897081)
Coco Crisp in dead last in CF. What's the story on him?
   3. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 10, 2008 at 02:22 AM (#2897083)
Red Sox fans around here swear by Crisp's defense. His ZR is down to his 2006 levels after an excellent .911 last season. Maybe last year was a fluke? Or do the numbers not pass the smell test?
   4. ian Posted: August 10, 2008 at 02:38 AM (#2897085)
We're sorry, *****@gmail.com does not have permission to access this spreadsheet.

You are signed in as ****@gmail.com, but that email address doesn't have permission to access this spreadsheet. (Sign in as a different user or request access to this document)

Find out more about this topic at the Google Docs Help Center.
   5. KJOK Posted: August 10, 2008 at 04:35 AM (#2897149)
Yep, I couldn't access the spreadsheet either, even when signed in to Google.
   6. Dan Posted: August 10, 2008 at 10:34 AM (#2897240)
I think that Crisp did have a career defensive year last year. He hasn't been nearly as good this year to my eyes. There have been several times where he's missed balls that Ellsbury or 2007 Crisp would have certainly caught.
   7. OCD SS Posted: August 10, 2008 at 11:42 AM (#2897249)
I don't think Crisp's had as good a year as he did last year, but I'm having a hard time seeing him as the worst in baseball. The Fielding Bible has him as neutral (0), and ranked as 17th in MLB (as compared to Hamilton, who is -13/33rd).

Is the sample size enough to account for the discrepancy? Crisp has played ~400 less innings than other CFers, is that enough that a few bad breaks or misplayed balls are getting extra weight? I men, I think it's pretty clear that he's not Jim Edmonds out there.
   8. Jim Wisinski Posted: August 10, 2008 at 12:22 PM (#2897254)
Brendan Harris (-9) is struggling


That's not struggling, that's how Harris always plays shortstop.
   9. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: August 10, 2008 at 05:01 PM (#2897398)
Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays infield was terrific, and I wondered if they had a coach that worked on that.

The Jays' infield coach is (and has been for some years) Brian Butterfield, who is a brilliant coach and teacher. Butter could be Wagnerian Professor of Infield at Cambridge if he were not working in MLB.

Butter's been given different responsibilities under the new manager (he is Cito's bench coach and essentially J.P.'s man in the dugout) and it will be interesting to see if the new responsibilities mean having to take time away from his teaching. I hope not.
   10. Chris Dial Posted: August 10, 2008 at 06:16 PM (#2897544)
I apologize. I didn't "publish" the spreadsheet. That should be fixed now.
   11. andrewberg Posted: August 10, 2008 at 06:26 PM (#2897566)
I suppose Everett has been basically neutral at SS this year because he hurt his shoulder and he's noticeably weaker throwing to first. Nonetheless, seeing some of the balls he reaches deep in the hole is pretty amazing compared to days when Brendan Harris starts. He made a play with 2 outs and runners on first and second last night where he went about 5 steps to his right, gloved the ball and whipped it to third to get the lead runner, which was not only unspeakably fluid, but also a very smart play.
   12. Swedish Chef Posted: August 10, 2008 at 06:31 PM (#2897579)
The least surprising result was the DH ranking.
   13. OCD SS Posted: August 10, 2008 at 11:52 PM (#2897777)
Just thinking some more about Crisp, these numbers don't adjust for any park effects, do they?

IIRC last year Dewan and James started making adjustments for walls in the video scouting, and while it had a big effect on Manny's rating, it also affected Crisp by +4.
   14. ...even Chuck Norris was afraid of Jim Rice Posted: August 11, 2008 at 12:41 AM (#2897867)
Based on ratings by the Fielding Bible, Hardball Times, and now this... Coco Crisp has basically been an average to mediocre defensive player this season. If these numbers agree with scouting reports, then the Sox really missed the boat on trading Crisp last winter. Going into this off-season, Crisp is now a year older, a little more expensive, and a that much farther removed (three years, at this point) from the last time he was a productive offensive player. Not to mention, his defensive reputation has eroded substantially. I understand that the Sox might not have felt they were getting fair value offers for Crisp at the time, but clearly he is worth even less at this point.
   15. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 11, 2008 at 12:58 AM (#2897899)
Why are all the catchers essentially average?

Robinson Cano seems to have the same disease as Jose Reyes.
   16. Cowboy Popup Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:02 AM (#2897906)
Robinson Cano seems to have the same disease as Jose Reyes.

Cano has fallen to pieces defensively since the All-Star break. He was pretty good before it, absolutely awful since, I'm not shocked (since SG keeps everyone updated on RLYW) to see him rate so low. Very concerning.
   17. Chris Dial Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:02 AM (#2897908)
Why are all the catchers essentially average?
Because they have very, very,very few chances, and they convert them all to outs (like 95% of the time).
   18. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:30 AM (#2897964)
Your explanation makes sense to me but I am still surprised that there's so little difference between the best and the worst.

It's interesting to me that Miguel Cabrera rates as an above average first baseman. He might be more valuable at first than he was at third if that's not just a statistical fluke.
   19. AROM Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:39 AM (#2897980)
Why are all the catchers essentially average?


We're looking at zone rating, pretty much a catcher's ability to field bunts and squibbers. It's not looking at SB/CS, PB, WP, and errors. Look at those and you'll see about the same range between best and worst as at the other positions.
   20. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:42 AM (#2897988)
We're looking at zone rating, pretty much a catcher's ability to field bunts and squibbers. It's not looking at SB/CS, PB, WP, and errors. Look at those and you'll see about the same range between best and worst as at the other positions.

I figured that was the case in the beginning but the link to Dial's methodology had the following to say:


Catchers are done as an amalgam of caught stealing per inning above average, stolen bases per inning above average, errors per inning above average and passed balls per inning above average, at an average base advancement of 0.31 runs per. I have vacillated between a couple of catcher run value calculations. Someone needs to make an argument on which way I should go.


I think you are right though because when Dial was ranking the players a little while ago there was much more variation.
   21. Chris Dial Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:50 AM (#2897995)
I think you are right though because when Dial was ranking the players a little while ago there was much more variation.
Dang it. Yes, my normal rankings of catchers do that. That does it - catchers won't be in this list again....
   22. Norcan Posted: August 11, 2008 at 04:49 AM (#2898058)
The rating for Crisp looks about right. I don't know if he's been the worst CF in the AL but he's gotten a lot of bad reads this year, sort of like he did in 2006. He's been worst at coming in on balls.

And I also definitely agree that Bobby Abreu has been a horrible outfielder this year. That guy turns balls that look like relatively routine outs off the bat into last stab affairs. Furthermore, he's never been one to dive for balls but with the loss of some speed, he needs to dive sometimes just to compensate and he never does. He's bad all around, going back on balls, coming in, going to his right and his left.
   23. Sox Machine Posted: August 11, 2008 at 05:43 AM (#2898067)
Interesting that Swisher is 1) above zero in center and 2) better than Brian Anderson in these scores. I probably would've given them each other's scores if they were presented without comment.
   24. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: August 11, 2008 at 05:59 AM (#2898069)
Interesting that Swisher is 1) above zero in center and 2) better than Brian Anderson in these scores. I probably would've given them each other's scores if they were presented without comment.

I'm more surprised that Alexei rates below average. I know he has a tendency to make a mental error but I think he's displayed some pretty superb range this year. The play he made this weekend on that flyball down the right-field line was pretty amazing. I'm not sure if I can recall a second baseman going so far out to make a play...
   25. Toby Posted: August 11, 2008 at 12:25 PM (#2898123)
I am sure this is obvious to everyone but me, but can someone clarify what the plus/minus figure represents? Is it runs?

Also, can someone clarify whether the plus/minus figure is a rate stat or an accrued stat?
   26. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: August 11, 2008 at 12:34 PM (#2898129)
I am pretty sure it is runs and that it is an accrued stat.
   27. Famous Original Joe C Posted: August 11, 2008 at 12:42 PM (#2898136)
The Crisp numbers underscore the uncertainty in this data - I don't think Crisp was ever as good as his numbers last year (IIRC, he hadn't been that good in CF, or even close, before, but had good numbers in LF). Now he ranks as the worst, which also seems strange. He hasn't been hurt. He's not at an age where he's lost a great deal of speed (and certainly does not appear to have). You really need a few years or a few metrics or else you might as well not draw any conclusions, it seems.

That said, thanks again for calculating and posting these, Chris. At the very least, they're always fun to look at.
   28. villageidiom Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:11 PM (#2898154)
Crisp either (a) has taken more ill-advised risks this year, or (b) has been far less successful with ill-advised risks than he was last year. There were quite a few balls he missed this year that he would've had last year.

Part of this might be bad jumps and bad routes and bad reads. My pet theory is that he's hurt but doesn't want anyone to know, what with the near certainty of his being Pipped if he goes on the DL.
   29. Chris Dial Posted: August 11, 2008 at 01:35 PM (#2898167)
I am sure this is obvious to everyone but me, but can someone clarify what the plus/minus figure represents? Is it runs?

Also, can someone clarify whether the plus/minus figure is a rate stat or an accrued stat?
It is runs. "Defensive Runs Saved". It's accrued. To date, this player has saved this many runs above an average performance (in turning batted balls into outs).
   30. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: August 11, 2008 at 02:27 PM (#2898222)
I'm more surprised that Alexei rates below average.

A-men. He's not particularly flashy, but boy, some of the stuff he gets to, holy man o' days.
   31. Toby Posted: August 11, 2008 at 04:14 PM (#2898350)
thanks, Chris. Sorry I had to ask. That's what I would have guessed, but I didn't want to have to guess.
   32. The Answer to the TWolves (GMoney) Posted: August 11, 2008 at 11:18 PM (#2899086)
MIN Span, Denard RF
310.3 105 4.5


Not too bad considering he's only played about 40 games.
   33. OCD SS Posted: August 11, 2008 at 11:40 PM (#2899097)
I thought +/- was done in terms of "plays", and to get the runs you'd multiply the plays score by the value of single. The enhanced plays takes into account whether the plays they've prevented/given up would be of the extra base variety. From Bill James Online:

A player’s more sophisticated fielding profile, as presented in John Dewan’s The Fielding Bible. It includes Plus/Minus, which represents the number of plays the player made, above/below the number that the average fielder would make, according to the video scouts at Baseball Info Solutions
   34. Chris Dial Posted: August 11, 2008 at 11:41 PM (#2899099)
I thought +/- was done in terms of "plays", and to get the runs you'd multiply the plays score by the value of single. The enhanced plays takes into account whether the plays they've prevented/given up would be of the extra base variety. From Bill James Online
That's their plus/minus, not my ratings, and I think he's referring to the positive or negative values in this piece.
   35. OCD SS Posted: August 11, 2008 at 11:50 PM (#2899112)
Whoops. Thanks Chris.

If these numbers agree with scouting reports, then the Sox really missed the boat on trading Crisp last winter. Going into this off-season, Crisp is now a year older, a little more expensive, and a that much farther removed (three years, at this point) from the last time he was a productive offensive player. Not to mention, his defensive reputation has eroded substantially. I understand that the Sox might not have felt they were getting fair value offers for Crisp at the time, but clearly he is worth even less at this point.


Of course the flip side to this is that there are no really good CFers on the market this year, compared to a relative glut last year.
   36. ...even Chuck Norris was afraid of Jim Rice Posted: August 12, 2008 at 12:35 AM (#2899178)
Of course the flip side to this is that there are no really good CFers on the market this year, compared to a relative glut last year.


Sure, but Coco's OBP over his last ~1,100 PA's is around .320 and if he rates out only as an average defensive player, that's really all that valuable. Don't get me wrong, you make a fair your point... I just think that any trade leverage we might have had from a thin market has been negated by Coco's continued offensive futility and falling back to earth defensively.
   37. ...even Chuck Norris was afraid of Jim Rice Posted: August 12, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#2899182)
Typo: not all that valuable.
   38. Addicted To Glove Posted: August 12, 2008 at 01:06 PM (#2899466)
Did anybody else notice that Jacoby Ellsbury rates out as below average in all three outfield positions? That doesn't seem right to me.
   39. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: August 12, 2008 at 01:42 PM (#2899501)
Did anybody else notice that Jacoby Ellsbury rates out as below average in all three outfield positions? That doesn't seem right to me.
Because it's not.
   40. OCD SS Posted: August 12, 2008 at 02:26 PM (#2899536)
Jacoby rates out as "+" in all three areas by TFB numbers.
   41. Chris Dial Posted: August 12, 2008 at 02:53 PM (#2899559)
Chris, these numbers aren't contextual, right? For instance, you don't bother to measure the impact of errors, correct?
That is correct.
   42. Ball Point Pen Guy (Will Young) Posted: August 12, 2008 at 02:58 PM (#2899566)
Brendan Harris is a ####### statue at shortstop.
   43. andrewberg Posted: August 12, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2899577)
Will- Harris is a statue when the ball is coming toward him. Everett gets to the ball, then becomes a statue since his arm now rates about a 3 on the 20-80 scale. If neither one can play the position, I'll take the average hitter. Still, putting Punto there and playing Harris at 2B to cover up some of his range problems makes 10x more sense until Casilla gets back.
   44. Joel W Posted: August 14, 2008 at 05:33 PM (#2903158)
Chris, any chance you can put the team totals at the bottom of the spreadsheet?
   45. Dixiechick Posted: August 22, 2008 at 10:34 AM (#2912488)
Butter's been given different responsibilities under the new manager (he is Cito's bench coach and essentially J.P.'s man in the dugout)


I'm curious how you would know that Brian Butterfield is "essentially J.P.'s man in the dugout", and what that means. I thought he was a bench coach after the last tiny-talent-time crew that Ricciardi hired was sacked.
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