AL Defensive Stats through August 7
We have looked at the National League defense to date, and here is the American League defense. I did learn from the NL data that posting defensive stats without a link to the basis of the calculations is a mistake. So the methodology is located here. Many people mix the leagues, but I prefer to keep them apart as chances can very since you face pitchers versus DHs.
Here is the entire spreadsheet, and then a few comments about each position. Please remember that the pitcher and catchers data isn’t reflective of mch of anything as there are very few chances and nearly every play is made. Also recall that for players with a small number of chances, each misplay makes a larger difference, just like in offensive stats, sample size is a factor.
First Base: Daric Barton (+6) and Lyle Overbay (+6) are in a dead heat. Overbay has lots more innings. Richie Sexson (-9) has been just awful. He’s just not fielding at all, and was bad in Seattle and has been worse for the Yankees. You might as well just leave Giambi out there.
Second Base:Once again, the A’s Mark Ellis (+14) is the best 2B in the AL. He’s a much better fielder than anyone else in the AL, and can really only see competition from Chase Utley. Utley isn’t having a strong season, and Ellis just keeps rolling along. Barton and Ellis? Is defense the new market inefficiency? The poorest fielder has also been a Mariner. Jose Lopez (-10) has already seen 400 chances, so he’s not helping the Mariners season.
Third Base:Shocked, I tell you, shocked! Scott Rolen (+11) for Toronto is the best fielder at third base. He generally is, and remaining healthy (mostly) is a big help. The good news for the Mariners is that Adrian Beltre (+10) is actually playing up to his reputation and his history. Alex Gordon (-15) is struggling.
Shortstop:Orlando Cabrera (+8) is playing good defense for the White Sox. Maicer Izturis (+5) and Erick Aybar (+6), splitting time for the Angels, have actually posted a better mark combined. That solid play is keeping the Angels atop the league. Brendan Harris (-9) is struggling, but he only has 430 innings. Michael Young (-3) is perennially one of the trailers, and of full-time players he has the lowest mark.
Left Field:Carl Crawford (+13) is doubling up the next left fielder. His play is one of the things that keeps the Rays at the top. Down at the bottom, another Mariner, Raul Ibanez (-12) is playing poorly. He was dead last in 2007, I believe.
Center Field:It may not have seemed like the Twins got much for Johan Santana, but Carlos Gomez (+14) is nearly half a win better than the next CF defensively. That’s got to be good for something. Well, it’s not a bag a used baseballs. Orioles CF Adam Jones (+9) is second in the ratings. Coco Crisp (-10) is the lowest.
Right Field:Last year, Franklin Gutierrez (+12) didn’t play enough innings to really qualify for a DRS Gold Glove, but he’s at 500+ innings now, and has a sizable lead in right. His defensive talent ceiling could be +20. As for stats, he’s caught 122 of 123 chances. That’s Kearnsian. Bobby Abreu (-20) was a good fielder not that long ago. Old age is hell. He’s also seeing more chances than average, so that isn’t helping at all. Abreu’s defense is the worst in the AL. That’s not going to get the Yankees to the post-season.
Teams:Last year, the Toronto Blue Jays infield was terrific, and I wondered if they had a coach that worked on that. This year, the Jays (+38) are repeating stellar defense. The A’s (+30) are the second best, anchored by Mark Ellis. The worst defensive teams aren’t a big surprise. They feature a corner OF in CF and a 2B playing SS - the Texas Rangers (-35). The secnd worst team is actually in the post-season hunt, albeit pretty close to being out of it - the Yankees (-31).
So ther eyou have it. These are two-thirds of a season, so they are still a little small on the sample size, and some are really low. Try not to focus on players with few innings or chances. Now, Abreu’s stinkitude is real, so don’t discount that either.
Chris Dial
Posted: August 09, 2008 at 06:18 PM |
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Is the sample size enough to account for the discrepancy? Crisp has played ~400 less innings than other CFers, is that enough that a few bad breaks or misplayed balls are getting extra weight? I men, I think it's pretty clear that he's not Jim Edmonds out there.
That's not struggling, that's how Harris always plays shortstop.
The Jays' infield coach is (and has been for some years) Brian Butterfield, who is a brilliant coach and teacher. Butter could be Wagnerian Professor of Infield at Cambridge if he were not working in MLB.
Butter's been given different responsibilities under the new manager (he is Cito's bench coach and essentially J.P.'s man in the dugout) and it will be interesting to see if the new responsibilities mean having to take time away from his teaching. I hope not.
IIRC last year Dewan and James started making adjustments for walls in the video scouting, and while it had a big effect on Manny's rating, it also affected Crisp by +4.
Robinson Cano seems to have the same disease as Jose Reyes.
Cano has fallen to pieces defensively since the All-Star break. He was pretty good before it, absolutely awful since, I'm not shocked (since SG keeps everyone updated on RLYW) to see him rate so low. Very concerning.
It's interesting to me that Miguel Cabrera rates as an above average first baseman. He might be more valuable at first than he was at third if that's not just a statistical fluke.
We're looking at zone rating, pretty much a catcher's ability to field bunts and squibbers. It's not looking at SB/CS, PB, WP, and errors. Look at those and you'll see about the same range between best and worst as at the other positions.
I figured that was the case in the beginning but the link to Dial's methodology had the following to say:
Catchers are done as an amalgam of caught stealing per inning above average, stolen bases per inning above average, errors per inning above average and passed balls per inning above average, at an average base advancement of 0.31 runs per. I have vacillated between a couple of catcher run value calculations. Someone needs to make an argument on which way I should go.
I think you are right though because when Dial was ranking the players a little while ago there was much more variation.
And I also definitely agree that Bobby Abreu has been a horrible outfielder this year. That guy turns balls that look like relatively routine outs off the bat into last stab affairs. Furthermore, he's never been one to dive for balls but with the loss of some speed, he needs to dive sometimes just to compensate and he never does. He's bad all around, going back on balls, coming in, going to his right and his left.
I'm more surprised that Alexei rates below average. I know he has a tendency to make a mental error but I think he's displayed some pretty superb range this year. The play he made this weekend on that flyball down the right-field line was pretty amazing. I'm not sure if I can recall a second baseman going so far out to make a play...
Also, can someone clarify whether the plus/minus figure is a rate stat or an accrued stat?
That said, thanks again for calculating and posting these, Chris. At the very least, they're always fun to look at.
Part of this might be bad jumps and bad routes and bad reads. My pet theory is that he's hurt but doesn't want anyone to know, what with the near certainty of his being Pipped if he goes on the DL.
A-men. He's not particularly flashy, but boy, some of the stuff he gets to, holy man o' days.
310.3 105 4.5
Not too bad considering he's only played about 40 games.
Of course the flip side to this is that there are no really good CFers on the market this year, compared to a relative glut last year.
Sure, but Coco's OBP over his last ~1,100 PA's is around .320 and if he rates out only as an average defensive player, that's really all that valuable. Don't get me wrong, you make a fair your point... I just think that any trade leverage we might have had from a thin market has been negated by Coco's continued offensive futility and falling back to earth defensively.
I'm curious how you would know that Brian Butterfield is "essentially J.P.'s man in the dugout", and what that means. I thought he was a bench coach after the last tiny-talent-time crew that Ricciardi hired was sacked.
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