AL MVP Race - Offense Plus Defense (OPD) - Through Sept 02, 2008
Carlos Quentin? Dustin Pedrioia? Alex Rodriguez? Who is the best candidate for the AL MVP? Has Pedroia’s recent hot streak and media hype lifted him to a top five candidate? He’s certainly played well enough to be the best player on his team. Or has he?
What follows is a discussion of the AL OPD (offense plus defense) leaders and who should be headed for the MVP. Sometimes the month of September can be enough to move players in this ranking when they are tightly bunched. So, while these are the leaders, the rankings are not cemented.
The runs are rated above average at position. The offense is XR, park-adjusted, and specific to the number of outs a player has used up. The defense is DRS (Defensive Runs Saved: ZR converted to runs), explained in my previous work. It is runs, not plays, above average. The units are the same, so I simply add the numbers together. The decimal places are for consistency’s sake, not meant to represent accuracy. There are several runs of give in these (and any) numbers, offense or defense.
In this data, the catcher defense is properly calculated, including all passed ball, stolen base data, as well as incorporating the ZR data. This is different from previous datasets, but the complaining about it was enough to get me to make the effort.
There is some taint in some of the defensive data. If a player played more than one position, I have summed all of his defensive contributions and using that total number for his DRS at his Primary defensive position. There are very few players this affects, and none are impacted significantly. Marco Scutaro is significantly affected. He is a +4 at SS, but plays all over well enough to boost that to a +12 defender. I believe using all the data more accurately reflects his total contribution to his team’s successes. I also include Tony Pena’s and Jamie Burke’s pitching runs. All of the AL, plus team totals is shared in a Google Doc here. The green represents the top mark in a category at a position and the yellow represents the worst mark.
All that done, let’s talk about some players. Scroll to the bottom if you want to see who the AL MVP leader is.
Designated Hitter
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Thome Jim CHW DH 0.00 15.79 15.79
Ortiz David BOS DH 0.00 9.88 9.88
Floyd Cliff TBR DH 0.00 7.65 7.65
Well, these guys are out of the running. They have a smaller set to be compared to, so perhaps I should lump them in with 1Bs? No, that drops these guys by three runs.
First Base
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Youkilis Kevin BOS 1B 6.37 23.15 29.52
Huff Aubrey BAL 1B -3.86 31.99 28.12
Morneau Justin MIN 1B -1.30 25.30 24.00
Pena Carlos TBR 1B 2.24 19.04 21.28
Youkilis is a very strong player. He is presently fifth in the league in OPD, with Huff at seventh. Here’s the first Oriole in the top performers list. They had some players with terrific seasons. Some people have suggested Morneau for MVP, but I don’t see it.
Second Base
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Pedroia Dustin BOS 2B 8.70 18.88 27.58
Kinsler Ian TEX 2B -0.44 26.29 25.85
Roberts Brian BAL 2B 0.49 23.46 23.95
Pedroia is the best second baseman after his hot streak. It’s hard to say if he’ll be there on October 3rd. His defense gives him an edge, but Roberts and Kinsler are better hitters and Pedroia could lose ground there quickly. He does have lots of home games, so we’ll see. Pedroia is 8th in the AL, three slots behind his teammate Youkilis. I don’t think he’s the MVP. And Roberts - another Oriole.
Shortstop
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Scutaro Marco TOR SS 12.38 7.11 19.49
Aviles Mike KCR SS 2.85 14.24 17.10
Jeter Derek NYY SS -0.09 11.72 11.62
Marco Scutaro is getting an eight run boost playing defense all around the diamond, so the real leader here is Aviles. Look at Derek Jeter being average at defense! You go, Derek!
Third Base
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Rodriguez Alex NYY 3B -3.28 34.73 31.45
Beltre Adrian SEA 3B 13.94 6.23 20.17
Guillen Carlos DET 3B 9.34 10.46 19.80
Longoria Evan TBR 3B 0.12 19.60 19.72
It turns out that Alex Rodriguez is a superior player. His defense isn’t good, but close to average. Adrian Beltre is giving the Mariners what they paid for this year. A great glove and a good bat. What? His OPS+ is 109? That sounds about right. Evan Longoria chased up the charts pretty good. ARod is number four on the AL OPD chart.
Catcher
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Mauer Joe MIN C 3.15 29.25 32.39
Shoppach Kelly CLE C 5.07 14.14 19.21
Joe Mauer is just a great player. Too bad he’s too tall to be good for very long. That injury to Victor Martinez is positively Bledsoe-ian. At the end of the page, I extended the top twenty to twenty-two so I could capture Scutaro and Shoppach. Just a little recognition for players that couldn’t possibly be getting the attention they deserve. Mauer is third in teh AL MVP race, and still seeing his teammate get the most attention.
Left Field
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Quentin Carlos CHW LF -0.90 29.77 28.88
Scott Luke BAL LF 8.78 13.63 22.40
Damon Johnny NYY LF -2.40 22.53 20.13
Carlos Quentin and Luke Scott. Who? What? Quentin is 6th in the league in OPD, and really been just tremendous all year. Here’s the third Oriole. How is that team so bad?
Right Field
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Bradley Milton TEX RF -1.96 36.06 34.10
Markakis Nick BAL RF -2.65 25.56 22.91
The old dinosaur Milton Bradley is having a great year. Not being body-slammed by your coach is helpful. Bradley has the second highest OPD in the AL, but I don’t suspect he’ll see any MVP votes. And another Oriole.
Center Field
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Sizemore Grady CLE CF 9.27 35.47 44.74
Grandersn Curtis DET CF 1.01 22.66 23.67
Hamilton Josh TEX CF -4.57 25.03 20.47
Josh Hamilton will get the Texas MVP votes because he has the story, and he’s really helped my fantasy baseball this sason (as has Bradley). Curtis Granderson is having a great season as well. But the league MVP should be Grady Sizemore (if not Cliff Lee). Sizemore has been everything a player can be - top hitter in the league and the best defensive center fielder. That’s a great player. the Indians are staging a furious, albeit futile, comeback, so perhaps he will get some votes.
The Top Twenty (Two)
Player Name Team Primary DRS XRa+ OPD
Sizemore Grady CLE CF 9.27 35.47 44.74
Bradley Milton TEX RF -1.96 36.06 34.10
Mauer Joe MIN C 3.15 29.25 32.39
Rodriguez Alex NYY 3B -3.28 34.73 31.45
Youkilis Kevin BOS 1B 6.37 23.15 29.52
Quentin Carlos CHW LF -0.90 29.77 28.88
Huff Aubrey BAL 1B -3.86 31.99 28.12
Pedroia Dustin BOS 2B 8.70 18.88 27.58
Kinsler Ian TEX 2B -0.44 26.29 25.85
Morneau Justin MIN 1B -1.30 25.30 24.00
Roberts Brian BAL 2B 0.49 23.46 23.95
Grandersn Curtis DET CF 1.01 22.66 23.67
Markakis Nick BAL RF -2.65 25.56 22.91
Scott Luke BAL LF 8.78 13.63 22.40
Pena Carlos TBR 1B 2.24 19.04 21.28
Hamilton Josh TEX CF -4.57 25.03 20.47
Beltre Adrian SEA 3B 13.94 6.23 20.17
Damon Johnny NYY LF -2.40 22.53 20.13
Guillen Carlos DET 3B 9.34 10.46 19.80
Longoria Evan TBR 3B 0.12 19.60 19.72
Scutaro Marco TOR SS 12.38 7.11 19.49
Shoppach Kelly CLE C 5.07 14.14 19.21
Chris Dial
Posted: September 04, 2008 at 05:37 PM |
190 comment(s)
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I hope this is either a blooper, or a defct in my sarcasm detector.
Kinsler's gone for the season, isn't he? So all Pedroia has to do to be the best second baseman in the league is stay ahead of Roberts, which seems likely.
that's just benefit of the doubt. If you do play a position, I don't dump you at DH. DH is the bastion of guys teams just won't put on the field.
And wrt positions I use innings played.
Wait, aren't these counting stats. Expressing it in "runs above average" certainly indicates that to me. In which case Pedroia wouldn't just have to regress for Kinsler to catch him, but he'd have to fall to a level that's below average.
5.09 team ERA. The Orioles would be pretty good if they had some pitchers.
Sizemore is having a great year by all measurements and should win. However, like Arod, Bradley and Huff...well his team sucks and it makes a difference to the voting. But you know that already.
Mauer is well, he's Mauer and should've won last year and I'm happy to award him for his incredibly high standards. However I'm putting him in the Quentin basket...if his team misses the playoffs, he won't win it.
Youk...having a great all around year. Covering both 1st and 3rd plays nicely with the voters. Missing time in Sept is hurting him.
Which of couse leaves us with Pedroia. Scrappy 5 foot 9 second baseman. If he wins the batting title with a .330+ average, gets those 20 HR and and gets 95% sb average coupled with perceived great defense then he comes close. If the Red Sox overtake the Rays, Pedroia continues to produce in the 4th spot, then he will win the MVP.
If these things don't happen for Pedroia then Sizemore wins it.
No, not alot of in depth analysis, but that's the way it will play out regardless.
I agree, but I still reckon if he can win the batting crown that's a big feather in his cap towards the MVP.
Hey, I agree, I think Sizemore should get it, followed by Mauer(yeah, I just think he's brilliant, I'm biased here)
But the everyman size of Pedroia and the face time the Sox get, coupled with his success whilst hitting 4th is the sort of stuff the voters just lap up.
Its a fun discussion right now as I think Mauer, Quentin and the 2 Red Sox guys can each have a monster Sept. and win it in the end.
Try the last few months. Since June 1st, his OPS is 1.003.
Also, it's amazing how different the STATS and BIS zone ratings are for a lot of players.
I'm waiting to see how the NL turns out so Sam and I can revisit the Wright/Pedroia debate.
And, of course, I was Wright, err right.
After Sizemore, everyone is really very tightly bunched, and would be even more so if one used replacement level as Skyking suggests (since Bradley, Mauer, and Rodriguez all have missed significant time). If for whatever reason you think Sizemore shouldn't count, it is very difficult to single out any one player as deserving of the award, and as such I would anticipate a pretty divided BBWAA ballot, presuming no one breaks out ahead over the last 20 games. Of course, this would not be an issue if they just did the right thing and gave it to Sizemore...
Sure he is. That classic stance, the classic swing, that patience....oh wait, yeah you're right.
Surely one of the 4 candidates on contending teams will just kill it in the last 25 days and just settle it for us.
Boy, it would be great if Mauer got some recognition. His lack of power probably kills him in the voters' eyes.
When you consider the difference in stolen base efficiency, the defense both from a positional and a competence viewpoint, and the fact that Pedroia plays in a stronger league and a stronger division, that comparison I made 3 years ago is looking damned good.
I don't know what this means.
Does it mean you only compare players to the average at their primary position, and don't weight the averages for multi-position players? For somebody like Scutaro, who's only played about a third of his games this year at shortstop, that approach is going to hugely overrate him.
Ignore only works on the newsblog.
Prove it. The cold numbers certainly don't say so. And Pedroia plays on a better team.
Wright David NYM 3B -0.4 29.6 29.2
Wright is better this year. Wright has a MUCH better track record.
And Pedroia plays on a better team.
So does every member of the Chicago Cubs. Is Ryan Theriot also better than David Wright? Who plays on the better team has absolutely zero to do with who is the better player. The Red Sox are also better than the Cardinals. Is Pedroia better than Albert Pujols. For that matter, Jason Varitek also plays on a better team than Pujols -- is he better than Pujols?
Just asking. It's your world, kevin, and your logic. I'm just playing in it.
Fixed.
The Red Sox will kick the crap out of the Cubs. Or any other National League team for that matter.
Also, Pedroia and Wright are so close that their numbers are likely to flip flop several times over the many seasons of their long and productive careers.
Ellsbury hurting his wrist would have changed the relative merits of Pedroia v. Wright?
Also, Pedroia and Wright are so close that their numbers are likely to flip flop several times over the many seasons of their long and productive careers.
We'll see. The other way to look at this is that Pedroia's numbers right now are at a crest, the top of a nice little hot streak he's been on. Robbie Cano's had similar hot streaks, and look where he is now. Consistent production over several years is a lot more reliable basis for knowing what a player's true talent level is. David Wright has been producing OPS+ between 133 and 150 for four straight years now (not to mention at least 25 HRs and 100 RBI) -- which is to say, every full season he's been in the major leagues. Let me know when Pedroia has a track record like that to base your speculation on.
The .390 or whatever batting average since June 15 - yeah. But his season as a whole includes a dismal start.
No, sorry, I meant the AL MVP discussion. There are a couple going on here -- I should have been more specific.
Let me know when Pedroia has a track record like that to base your speculation on.
Meh. Sometimes you can just tell without a track record. Pedroia just has that "can't miss" vibe. But if you want to wait I guess that's fine, too.
Not to be a naysayer, but so did Nomar, and he was great for about five years, then tanked. Don't get me wrong - I think that, after Pujols, he's probably the active player who has the best chance of entering the 3500 hit club. It's just that guys can always miss. He has a great minor league and college track record to go with the big league one, though.
Just for grins, I put David Wright's age and totals into Bill James's Favorite Toy. It came up with about a 9% chance of his getting 3500 hits, and a 22% of 3000 hits. That's pretty remarkable for a guy who currently has less than 800.
Jose Reyes -- who is a bit ahead of Wright in the career totals and has a higher established hit level -- has a 12.5% chance of 3500 hits, and 27.5% chance of 3000. Of course, the Favorite Toy doesn't know that Reyes is more dependent on speed than Wright is, and that his hit total is more likely to diminish into his 30s. But still, both of them have an established, though de minimis, chance at 3500.
Of course, if you're going to talk about Aviles, then you might mention that he's played a couple dozen games at second and third base this year, and hasn't been nearly as valuable as these numbers show either. There's nobody else quite as bad as Scutaro, but Josh Hamilton's numbers would take a significant hit if you corrected for the number of games he's played in right field, and Kevin Youkilis would move up the list, at least a little, if you adjusted for the games he's played at third. And so forth. You've got these numbers calculated out to hundredths of a run--if you're going to pretend they have some real accuracy, as opposed to just generally getting the broad strokes right, then this is something that you need to correct for.
Or with Win Shares.
Chris, can you explain how Sizemore ends up as the top hitter in the league? Just eyeballing it, he looks to be 11th in the league in OBP, 10th in the league in slugging, and 11th in OPS+. He's been durable, but not a lot more than people like Pedroia and Hamilton and Brian Roberts. Progressive Field plays like a slight hitter's park, so he shouldn't have a massive park adjustment. He's been brilliant at stealing bases, but I have a hard time seeing how that vaults him so far forward that he becomes the best offensive player in the league.
I think Chris means top hitter *relative to position.*
Albert Pujols: 36.2% chance at 3000; 14.6% chance at 3500
Derek Jeter: 97% chance at 3000; 34.4% chance at 3500 (that second chance is going to drop when this year's numbers are factored in, because his established hit level of 208 is going to drop)
A-Rod: 97% chance at 3000; 30.8% at 3500
Is centerfield a weaker position than second base now? I'm not being sarcastic at all here. It does seem like there has maybe been a shift in the defensive spectrum with all the slow, power hitting 2Bs we have nowadays. Whether it's the gap closing, or whether CF is now a more defensive position than 2B, I can't say.
Forgot about Jeter and ARod. I don't know how.
Of course that's a possibility. However, I think just by watching Crisp, Ellsbury and Drew, you can see that they are not anything like the worst fielders at their positions in the majors. They are all guys with good reputations defensively. All are faster than average for their positions, especially considering Ellsbury has played a lot in left and right. In the Fielding Bible stats, they all come out as average or above. Essentially, the FB lists are nearly the same as the zone rating ones in relative ranks of players, except for the Boston outfielders. Revised zone rating at the hardball times shows Ellsbury as the best leftfielder other than Payton with over 100 innings played, essentially the same as Adam Jones, who's the centerfield leader among "qualified" guys (this seems to mean at least about 700 innings at the position), but 7th among guys with at least 100 innings when he plays center, and the third best rightfielder when he plays right, after Carlos Gonzalez and David Murphy (again, at least 100 innings required). JD Drew comes up as the best "qualified" rightfielder in RZR, but terrible in ZR. Coco Crisp comes out in the middle of the pack in RZR, but worst in ZR. I stand by the idea that ZR is underrating Boston outfielders for some reason. The difference is the out of zone plays. A lot of these are foul balls, but of course left fielders and right fielders in Fenway Park don't catch foul balls.
Really? Are they that close? Pedroia's career OPS+ is 114. Wright's is 138. Wright's best year is 150. Pedroia's is this season (127). Now, i understand Pedroia's had less than 1200 ABs and his numbers are somewhat skewed by a miserable 89 AB stretch in 2006, but I would hesitate to say their numbers are "close."
Wright's a better hitter, for sure. However, OPS+ inflates the numbers of NL players. It's not just that the NL is a weaker league right now, although it is. It's also that OPS+ compares NL players to 8 position players, plus a combination of pitchers and pinch hitters, while it compares NL players to a combination of 8 position players and a DH. If you account for those issues, it becomes closer. Then, account for position, and I'd say that Pedroia and Wright are very comparable players.
The baseline for OPS+ doesn't include pitcher hitting.
Actually, OPS+ removes pitchers for computing league averages.
I'll contribute by adding another vote to the "Wright is almost certainly a better player than Pedroia because he has a much longer track record of being good" crowd.
I'd say they are having very comparable years - all things considered, I'd take Pedroia this year over Wright by a slim margin. However, if you ask me who is likely to be better next year, I'd take Wright, pretty easily. Pedroia is a good player having a great year, but I'm guessing that this is as good as he's going to get (which is pretty damn good). Wright still has more room to grow, and is more likely to repeat this year's performance on an annual basis.
And The ABs you are talking about aren't likely to move anyone a run or so. the average differences between positions multiplied by few at bats and then added to a larger score historically just don't move the number. Maybe it is 11.8 instead of 12.4, but is that important?
And while you say "boroad stroke", it is much more accurate than OPS+, or OPS (which I would call broad stroke). It isn't VORP. It's not meant to be and I often say feel free to take the defensive number and add your own offensive metric. Please do so if you consider it to be a deal-breaker. Let me know how far you think it moves the whole group. Since it is a league average, removing some stats from 1B and adding them to 3B will possibly lower his 1B status while changing his 3B status. The difference just isn't going to be there (I don't think). This is how I do it though.
Fair enough. In the case of Scutaro, though (whose numbers would be changed by a *lot* more than a run--probably more like fifteen, at a glance)--it does seem a little strange to go out of your way to specifically highlight his season when the only reason he comes anywhere close to the list is because of a hole in the system. But, whatever, it's your list.
OK. My mistake. I thought it should, but looked it up and made the mistake of trusting Wikipedia. I know it was stupid.
So, out of curiosity, do you trust the ZR numbers or all the other metrics (win shares, fielding bible, RZR)?
I can see the foul ball making the difference in right and left, but obviously it doesn't matter in center.
Are you a Red Sox fan?
Yup. And you're a Mets fan, so that goes nowhere.
Lets look at the facts:
1. Pedroia has crated 111 runs, while using 411 outs. Wright has created 110 runs, while using 414 outs. About as close as you can get.
2. Pedroia plays in the better hitters park. Advantage Wright
3. Pedroia plays in the better league. Advantage Pedroia
4. Pedroia plays a middle infield position. Wright plays third. Advantage Pedroia
5. Wright is a little better defensively at his position than Pedroia is at his. Advantage Wright.
5. Pedroia has done exceedingly well in clutch situations, including late innings of close games, and high leverage situations. Wright has not. Advantage Pedroia.
Very close overall, but I'd still take Pedroia by a hair, this year so far.
God knows I get tired of following this team, so maybe I'm missing some significant DL time for Roberts, but I don't think so.
Of course, people have been saying this about Pedroia since he was in T-ball and he's exceeded everyone's expectations every step of the way.
So, if a clear pattern of improvement has been established, why do you expect it to stop now?
Ahem. So I take it you've movedeon from that ridiculous argument you handed me 3 years ago that Wright and Pedroia could in no way be considered equivalent players?
A simple acknowledgment of "You were right, I was wrong" would do, thank you.
No. They are not equivalent players. The fact that you still don't see this is your problem, not mine. The best indication of your failure to see this is the fact that you have to rely on silly nonsense like, "Pedroia plays on a better team," as if that is relevant to the question of who is the better player.
So I ask again: is Pedroia better than Albert Pujols? After all, he plays on a better team than Pujols.
Well, then how do you explain that Pedroia is outplaying Wright while being a year younger, then?
I agree that they aren't equivalent players. Pedroia is a superior defensive player and baserunner.
A rather transparent and feeble attempt at changing the subject, wouldn't you say, Sam?
Let's say for the sake of argument you're right.
But that's in the past anyway. We're talking right now and right now, Pedroia is better, and he's a year younger too.
I actually agree with you here. I'd imagine people said very similar things about Pete Rose in 1965 that they're saying about Pedroia now. Rose only had one season that was a lot better than that one, but he had many seasons that were a little better. Essentially the same goes for Ryne Sandberg in 1984 - he had a couple years about as good, but none a lot better.
Pedroia actually has a better track record to date than Rose and Sandberg did then. I would like to see what Pedroia's comparable players list looks like after this year.
Wright was better at age 24 than Pedroia is this year, and Wright is better at age 25 than Pedroia is this year. But you go on clinging to your fanboy fantasy. It gives you pleasure and it doesn't hurt anyone else. So what's the harm?
So I ask again: is Pedroia better than Albert Pujols? After all, he plays on a better team than Pujols.
A rather transparent and feeble attempt at changing the subject, wouldn't you say, Sam?
No, actually, it's an attempt to get you to admit your argument ("Pedroia plays on a better team") was moronic. Or, perhaps, to see if you will stick to your guns and really argue that Pedroia is better than Pujols -- thus showing everyone how ridiculous you are. Either way, I win.
In addition, what makes Pedroia "appear" good is the complete shittiness of Cano.
Since when do you care about the cold numbers? Weren't you just saying in a thread a couple days ago that Manny's numbers are worthless because he's a pain in the ass?
Here they are, courtesy bb-ref:
1. God (997)
2. Babe Ruth (991)
3. William the Conqueror (989)
4. Alexander the Great(931)
5. Superman (942)
6. Frank Merriwell (937)
7. Chip Hilton (921)
8. Moby Dick (917)
9. William Wallace (909)
10.Moses (989) (While he can part the Red Sea, the similarity score is somehwoat low because Pedroia isn't Jewish)
Pete Rose was a great, great player.
Yeah, right. Pedroia's going to score something like 130 runs and plays stellar second base. Rose scored 90, couldn't even succeed in stealing 2/3 of the time and played 1st.
Get real, Chris.
These numbers are not only all lower than David Wright's this year. They are lower than his career averages. They are lower than Wright's OPS+, OBP, and SLG in every one of his full seasons in the major leagues. Every one. Pedroia at 24 isn't as good as Wright was at 22, 23, or 24. He's not as good as Wright is at 25.
Now completing his fourth full season in the majors, David Wright has never had a full season in the major leagues in which his OPS+ was lower than 133. He's never had an OBP lower than .380, or a slugging percentage lower than .516. All these numbers exceed Pedroia's career high to date. Wright's lows exceed Pedroia's career highs, even though Wright plays in a pitcher's park.
There is one reason, and one reason only, that kevin says he believes that Pedroia is an equivalent (or better) player. Because of the uniform he wears.
Wright can't hold Pedroia's jock in any other phase of the game. It takes more than a bat to win ballgames, Sam.
It takes smarts, and good defense, and good baserunning. And the ability to execute a force play.
If Pedroia was so great, he wouldn't have 9 players with a sim score over 900.
1) he plays for the Tribe,
2) he is cute, and
3) I got an autographed ball from him this season!
(Posted by someone else in the Dial household)
No. Rose was a better hitter at age 38 than Pedroia is now. There is no way that 3 points in OPS+ makes up for 10 caught stealings and the difference between playing first base reasonably well and being the second best defensive 2B in the league. By the time Rose had any seasons where he hit much better than Pedroia is hitting now, he had been moved to much less demanding defensive positions. The few years where he played 3B later on, he wasn't very good defensively. I suppose he deserves some bonus points, because he played third well enough that the Reds could put him there and hence get Griffey and Foster into the lineup, but he was by no means a really good defender anywhere except the corner outfield positions.
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