June 9, 2003

A Draft, Please

As a respected member of the Fourth Estate, I participated in the conference call of the MLB First Year Draft. Several Primer authors and posters did. I called the press conference phone number and when asked for my credentials, I said, "Chris Dial, Baseball Primer." And just as if I belonged, I was connected. Yes, it was broadcast on the MLB website, albeit poorly, but it was really exciting to be in on the actual conference call. There were excellent moments: The Devil Rays dropping the call on the first pick; Tommy Lasorda’s voice giving the Dodgers’ selection "Chad Billingsley…from the great state of Ohio". I haven’t read anything in Chad’s write-ups – is he any kin to the Beaver’s mom?

There’s plenty of screeching about drafting college players over high school players – and there’s plenty to that – for starters, college players have already made it past ages 18-20 without a career-ending injury. But there’s also a ton of exaggeration to "College Players!" In the early going of the draft, at least, there has been little difference between the success rate of college players and high school players.

In a completely informal review, I looked at all first rounds in the drafts from 1990-1999 – ten years. That information is readily available, and it gives the draftees time to reach the majors (4 years). I assigned "stars" and "regulars" to the players in each draft. Personally, I couldn’t care less about a player that only got a cup of coffee. He was a bust if you drafted him in the first round and didn’t do more than that. Only "regulars" or better even count.

Then there is the subjectivity of who is a star and who isn’t. Derek Jeter and Troy Glaus are stars; Jose Cruz, Jr. and Trot Nixon are regulars. There would definitely be some debate over some of my assignments, but work with me. I sorted the players by "high school" and "college" and "community college" counts as college, so it’s sort of "college (+)". After I did this, it seemed like I had heard the "total drafted" numbers before, but here is what I found:

High school: 141 players

College (+): 144 players

That was interesting in itself. And it was odd, some seasons were all high school players and some were all college players and most were close to 50:50.

High school stars: 15 (11%)

College (+) stars: 13 (9%)

High school regulars: 31 (22%)

College (+) regulars: 41 (29%)

The high schoolers may still pick up some regulars from the 1997-99 drafts, but they are about 22-24 now and 24 is a typical "reach the majors" age. Guys in those drafts that didn’t quite get counted yet are Michael Cuddyer, Jon Garland and Jack Cust. I also didn’t include three 1996 drafted pitcher: John Patterson, Matt White and Adam Eaton. All six of these players are high schoolers.

My interpretation of this data is that drafting high schoolers in the first round isn’t significantly riskier, if riskier at all, than drafting college players. And the chances of the high schooler being a star is higher, offsetting getting a "regular". That seems like common sense, though. If a high school player is good enough to be considered a top 30 selection, he’s "special."

So all the sniggering by "Moneyball"-created new Beane-counters about the Devil Rays drafting Delmon Young is uncalled for. There have been four number ones from high school in this decade: 1990 (Chipper Jones), 1991 (Brien Taylor), 1993 (Alex Rodriguez), 1999 (Josh Hamilton). With the jury still out on Hamilton, Chipper and ARod make a good argument for drafting high schoolers Number One.

Brien Taylor’s draft? Here are the college players taken in the first round and their slot:

Yes, Taylor was a real bust, but then who in this draft wasn’t? Good gravy, what a terrible draft. Oh, wait, here are the high schoolers and slots:

That’s Shawn Estes, Manny Ramirez, Cliff Floyd and Pokey Reese. So maybe Taylor didn’t pan out, but the high schoolers kick the crap out of the college players in this draft.

Naturally, my "star" and "regular" ratings are going to change as players develop, and probably are going to favor the high schoolers (see above guys not included). I suspect there will be a few regulars that change to "stars" for both classifications.

All that said I see no compelling reason to think Rickie Weekes has a better chance of becoming a star/regular in MLB than Delmon Young does.

The Yankees are buying the pennant!

Um, they picked up Ruben Sierra for goodness sake. We have a saying where I work: "That’s not help." If I’m a fan of another team, I just laugh at this move – hey, that’s more money in the "high payroll tax" pool. And I am a fan of another team, just a fan of a team whose fans have nothing to laugh about.

This will be brief. Sosa corked, but corking doesn’t significantly help, and may hurt, one’s ability to hit. So his record isn’t "tainted.’ His HRs would have been HRs. Moving on.