September 17, 2003

Doo-dah, doo-dah. The Braves have the East wrapped up and the Giants have the West wrapped up. I believe come Wednesday each has a Magic Number of 1. You can put it on the board! Yes!

The Central division has become a two-horse race. The Cardinals have simply imploded in the face of a great conspiracy and self-pity. The Cubs and Astros are in a tight race, with the loser probably not going to the playoffs. The Cubs face the Pirates and Reds while the Astros play the Giants and Cardinals and Brewers. While the Astros have a game and a half lead, their schedule is much harder. With the Cubs pitching, I think we could easily have a tie come September 28. Sweet.

The wild card has a myriad of possibilities. The Astros, Cubs, Marlins, Phillies and Dodgers are all still in the hunt, with each having about equal chances. One of the bigger factors will be how much the division leaders – Braves and Giants – rest their stars for the playoffs. Since one of the Astros/Cubs will win the division, there are four teams left.

Why are the Dodgers and Central loser still "in it?"

Because the Marlins and Phillies still have to dance with the Braves and each other. These two still have five games with each other. And each has a series with the Braves (Marlins 4 games, Phillies 3). The Phillies series with the Braves will be almost solely for the Braves to set up their rotation. I think that gives the Phillies an edge in that particular comparison. Either way, it looks like the East teams will tread water, giving the Cubs/Astros/Dodgers the opportunity to win out (or about) and pass them.

All things considered, I like the Cubs rotation and schedule. And come a short series, it could be one of the signs of the Apocalypse – Cubs in the World Series? Cubs-Red Sox? Cubs-White Sox? Lock the doors and hide the children.

Javy Lopez caught Greg Maddux in a regular season game on September 16, 2003. Hell, he caught him at all. I felt the earth rumble under my feet, and I’m nowhere near a fault line. This is the first time since September of 1998. Five years – what a waste.

One of the reasons for the Braves post-season struggles is Lopez sitting on the bench in a third of the games. Bobby Cox has been an excellent manager over the Braves’ run, but his inability to write "Lopez" and "Maddux" on the same lineup card has been a severe thorn in the Braves’ side.

Why does Maddux have a personal catcher? Lopez caught Maddux during his stellar 1995 season. It wouldn’t appear to be anything with respect to their ability to work together. Then IT happened.

May 3, 1996.

The story goes that Javy inadvertently tipped Maddux’ pitch to Benito Santiago in the 9^th inning, and Santiago hit a grand slam to win the game for the Phillies. First, Santiago is a notorious "peeker". Second, Lopez was young and tended to set up "early". This combination led to the demise of the battery relationship. After the game, Maddux called for the video, and upon confirming his suspicion, proceeded to go nuts, in stereotypical ballplayer fashion, smashing assorted pieces of porcelain and electronics. Maddux’ record dropped to 4-2.

Lopez continued to catch Maddux for another six weeks and eight starts, including another thumping at the hands of the Phillies (6-0 on May 12). Over that stretch, Maddux went 1-4 with 4 NDs. His ERA rose from 2.17 to 3.35.

Up to the May 3 game, Eddie Perez had caught just four games. Lopez was going to be a stud catcher, aiming for a "130+ games caught" season. Of those four games, Perez never started with Maddux.

On a six-game road trip, Maddux got brained in Colorado on June 7, lasting just 3.1 innings and giving up 7 earned runs on 11 hits. His next outing was June 12 in New York, where he lost to the Mets 3-2. On the flight back to Atlanta, the plug was pulled. From where the sun then stood, Lopez would catch Maddux no more. And Maddux meant it. His next outing on June 17, Eddie Perez was in the catcher’s box in Atlanta – for good.

The Braves’ explanations (Lopez has to rest and it’s easy to just give every fifth day to the same catcher) don’t hold water – mostly because of the way the post-season has been handled. There’s no need to rest Lopez in the playoffs, and not having his wildly superior bat in a third of the post-season games is, well, stupid.

With Javy Lopez producing a MVP season, Maddux finally gives in. Maddux wants to win 15 games. He wants to win another World Series. Up til now, Maddux figured he could get by without Lopez’ bat, and that’s been true, but with Lopez on the verge of posting one of the greatest catcher hitting seasons, Maddux knows his best chances are with Lopez. It only took eight years, but Maddux may have moved on.

Of course, we’ll really know in Game 7 of the Braves-Giants NLCS, with the bases loaded and Benito Santiago striding to the plate. Oh, the irony…

I want extend tremendous thanks to Retrosheet and Marty Winn. Winn keeps track of Maddux’ career in great detail. Anyone wanting to do research on Maddux should start with these two sites.