September 23, 2003

Here we are – six games left and two NL playoff spots are essentially tied. How will it shake out? Here’s what it looks like to me:

The Cubs have three games with Cincy and three with Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has played pretty well lately, going 9-6 over the last two weeks, and really only struggled with the Braves and Marlins over the last month. The Pirates just split a four-game set with the Cubbies at PNC, with three of the four games being slugfests. In that series, only Mark Prior pitched well, and shut the Pirates down, winning 4-1.

The Reds series will be strange. Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano and Juan Cruz will face this week’s crop of new starters. The Reds are going with guys without much under their belt this season – but Todd Van Poppel is one of them, and he pitched great in his last outing, shutting the Phillies down. I like Sosa to have a field day and hit a few home runs at the GAB. The Cubs take two of three and maybe sweep. They go into Pittsburgh with the NL Central lead being theirs to lose.

In Pittsburgh, the Cubs will have Mark Prior, Matt Clement (or some other arm - coughEstescough) and Kerry Wood – if they are smart and manage their rotation properly. That’s another two-of-three series. Which makes the Cubs go 4-2 this week and finish at 88-74.

Where does that leave the Astros? They have the great misfortune of playing the Giants for two games before playing four against Milwaukee. Sure, the Astros are at home the rest of the season, but I don’t see that being a big help for these series. Felipe Alou has said Bonds is going to play against the Astros. The Giants have Jason Schmidt and Sidney Ponson lined up for the next two starts. That spells very bad things for the Astros, meaning they will drop these two and need a sweep against Milwaukee to keep pace with Chicago.

Yes, the Astros are countering with Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt, so this could go either way. The Astros did not walk Bonds on Monday (Bonds’ "reaching base" streak ended at 58 games). Miller has only allowed 4 hits over his last two starts (12.1 IP). That’s dominate. He’s in a groove and could have that magical game. I would still walk Bond nearly every time. Oswalt has been just as good, allowing 9 hits in 14 innings and just one run. The next two games are going to be difficult for the Astros, but they have the right guys there to win. Set your DVRs and VCRs.

The Astros "catch a break" against the Brewers, as Ben Sheets and Matt Kinney may miss the series due to pitching against the Cardinals Tuesday and Wednesday. Doug Davis has been pitching very well since being acquired by the Brew Crew. He goes first against the Astros. That’s sort of good news for Houston, notorious "left-handed pitcher bashers." The Astros will take three of four, but end up 87-76, unless the wunderkinds can pull something off against the Giants the next two days. I like Oswalt in the day game after a night game, with Bonds possibly taking a day off. That’ll be the Astros best chance at the division title.

The Phillies and the Marlins square off in a three game set starting today. Okay, it’s artificially created by the wild card, but I’m excited for the Marlins fan and the Phillies fans. Plus my younger brother, Tory, has a partial season ticket package from the Marlins, so I can go see some playoff baseball – featuring Barry Bonds! Woohoo!

Tue. 23: Willis (13-6) Millwood (14-11)

Wed. 24: Beckett (8-8) Myers (14-8)

Thu. 25: Penny (13-10) Wolf (16-9)

All good pitchers.

If the Phils take two of three, we’re all tied at 87 wins with each team having an NL East opponent left: the Phillies have three games with the Braves and the Marlins play the Mets. While the Mets aren’t good, the Braves pitchers will be pitching short and stars are likely to be rested by Atlanta to prevent any silly injury, like getting run over by the tarp.

If the Marlins take two of three, they will have a two game lead on the Phillies with three to play – after Friday, the Fish "go dormie". With three games left, the Marlins hold a 10-6 lead in the season series. That’s a huge advantage for the Fish. These three Phils pitchers each have struggled against the Marlins and have an aggregate ERA of 6 in 53 IP against Florida. Uh, that’s not good.

The Marlins’ trio, on the other hand, have posted an aggregate 2.80 ERA against the Phils in 42 IP. Brad Penny has 14 IP allowing just one earned run (0.64 ERA). I suspect that game will be a win for the Marlins. The Marlins rotation landed just right for this series, while the Phillies did not. Sometimes it always a good idea to go with "the Ace" when he struggles against a team – that’s simply not what is best for winning. The Phils could get Brett Myers out of the series by moving Padilla up a day. Egos and macho-ness have to step aside for a better shot at making the playoffs.

It may very well not matter, as the Marlins managed a split with the Braves and the Phils still have the three game series.

At this point, it looks like an NL East wild card. There’s very little chance the ‘Stros or Cubs can run both run the table – which is essentially what would have to happen for them both to be in the playoffs.

So it looks like the NL Playoffs will come down to the last wire. But is it a great race? It is if you are a Cubs or Astros fan, or a Marlins or Phillies fan. Heck, I am enjoying the tension of David Gee and True Blue (who had a bad enough weekend with UM getting smoked for three quarters and a huge poll tumble). I don’t hear from Ray Kerby, but he has to be on pins and needles.