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Monday, July 10, 2006
Individual Leaders at the All-Star Break - American League
Halfway HomeWe have reached the All-Star Break, and everyone wants to know how everyone is doing.
What follows will be various rankings with minimal explanation – so you can have the data without my jabbering on and on about my opinion which you really aren’t that interested in.
The ratings are all based on playing time, park-adjusted, position-adjusted above average, and within league only, although the stats include interleague games.
I use Extrapolated Runs for offense (XR), and it is a routinely calculated "Runs above average at position" that you see with so many other statistics, and my calculations for Defensive Runs Saved (RS) using ZR as the basis. Explanations for the defensive methodology can be found here. “pt” stands for “playing time”.
First here are the Overall AL Defensive Leaders:
Pos First Last Team GP GS INN RSpt RS/150 3B Mike Lowell BOS 83 80 700.0 16 31 2B Placido Polanco DET 74 73 652.0 12 25 1B Chris Shelton DET 86 82 737.0 12 21 3B Brandon Inge DET 85 83 749.0 10 18 SS Juan Uribe CHW 75 70 632.0 10 21 2B Mark Grudz'ek KCR 77 77 648.7 9 18 2B Brian Roberts BAL 68 67 586.7 9 20 CF Vernon Wells TOR 81 79 689.0 8 16 LF Carl Crawford TBD 82 80 702.7 7 14 CF Corey Patterson BAL 80 71 639.0 7 15 CF Torii Hunter MIN 84 84 730.7 6 11 2B Marco Scutaro OAK 34 30 277.7 6 29 SS Alex Gonzalez BOS 68 67 591.3 6 13 2B Mark DeRosa TEX 26 26 223.7 5 33 RF Alex Rios TOR 70 59 547.7 5 13 CF Brian Anderson, CHW 68 54 490.0 5 15 1B Kendry Morales LAA 42 40 364.7 5 19 C Ramon Hern'dez BAL 77 74 638.3 5 11 1B Doug Mient'wicz KCR 82 74 656.7 5 11 2B Aaron Hill TOR 51 51 442.3 5 15 C Ivan Rodriguez DET 65 64 563.3 5 12 SS Bobby Crosby OAK 77 77 677.0 5 9 CF Johnny Damon NYY 72 71 607.3 5 10Here’s the first explanation: The precision of the methodology is a handful of runs – not a single run or anything. In general, players with five runs of one another are approximately equal.
The best comment here is – you want to know why the Tigers lead the majors in wins? Look at that defense! Goodness, that is impressive. Granderson, Guillen and Thames are all at three or four runs above average as well. Only Magglio Ordonez is below average, and he’s only at –1. That’s an absolutely incredible performance for the Tigers.
Mike Lowell was always a fine fielder, and he’s earning his paycheck this year with the glove.
The trailers on defense in the American League:
Pos First Last Team GP GS INN RSpt RS/150 SS Juan Castro MIN 50 48 408.0 -5 -15 3B Melvin Mora BAL 88 88 755.3 -5 -9 CF Coco Crisp BOS 44 43 390.7 -5 -17 2B Adam Kennedy LAA 80 76 679.7 -5 -10 LF Melky Cabrera NYY 46 45 401.7 -5 -17 SS Miguel Tejada BAL 83 83 719.7 -5 -10 2B Russ Adams TOR 22 19 172.7 -5 -42 RF Kevin Mench TEX 52 52 447.7 -6 -18 SS Derek Jeter NYY 78 78 680.0 -6 -12 LF Brad Wilkerson TEX 67 66 572.3 -6 -14 3B Shea Hill'brand TOR 17 15 122.3 -6 -68 RF Bernie Williams NYY 43 39 326.0 -6 -26 1B Jason Giambi NYY 44 44 337.0 -6 -26 3B Tony Batista MIN 50 50 434.0 -7 -21 C Victor Martinez CLE 77 73 644.7 -7 -15 2B Tad. Iguchi CHW 72 72 648.3 -7 -13 CF Gary Matthews TEX 73 72 628.7 -8 -16 2B Luis Castillo MIN 75 75 647.3 -9 -20 SS Angel Berroa KCR 80 79 687.7 -9 -18 1B Paul Konerko CHW 82 81 692.7 -9 -18 2B Jorge Cantu TBD 44 44 388.0 -10 -36 LF Manny Ramirez BOS 82 82 685.3 -12 -23Why can’t the Yankees get it going? They have four players who are struggling with the leather. Manny’s not a strong fielder, and his Runs Allowed is slightly exaggerated by the Green Monster. Jorge Cantu was one of the worst in the field in 2005, and he still looks bad. I don’t see any real surprises on this list – Mora and Tejada are struggling on the left side of the Oriole infield, and that isn’t helping Mazzone turn that pitching staff around. I expect both of them to pick it up before the season is over.
Shea Hillenbrand should stop playing third base. He could set some kind of record with that poor performance if he played the entire season over there.
The offensive leaders in the AL:
Pos Name Last Team G PA XRpt XR/150 DH Travis Hafner CLE 83 362 40 84 DH Jim Thome CHW 82 355 30 61 1B Jason Giambi NYY 78 340 29 60 C Joe Mauer MIN 76 327 27 61 LF Manny Ramirez BOS 82 362 27 54 SS Derek Jeter NYY 81 377 26 49 CF Vernon Wells TOR 83 366 24 44 CF Grady Sizemore CLE 87 411 24 39 RF Jerm. Dye CHW 78 325 22 47 RF Ichiro Suzuki SEA 89 412 19 33 DH David Ortiz BOS 86 392 19 32 SS Carlos Guillen DET 85 346 18 33 LF Marcus Thames DET 61 228 17 50 1B Justin Morneau MIN 81 335 17 32 3B Alex Rodriguez NYY 84 377 16 29 CF Gary Matthews TEX 76 356 16 31 C Mike Napoli LAA 48 170 16 67 LF Reed Johnson TOR 68 235 16 52 1B Kevin Youkilis BOS 83 386 16 28 SS Miguel Tejada BAL 90 398 16 24 1B Paul Konerko CHW 85 367 15 27Hafner has been a leading MVP candidate the last two seasons, and he has continued this season, with a sizable lead on the offensive side of the board. You never hear about him – it’s always “Ortiz” or “Arod”, and those guys don’t have half of Hafner’s production.
The only real surprises are Joe Mauer, who is hitting about 0.390, and Grady Sizemore. Oh, wait, there’s Marcus Thames, having a great year in Detroit. Ichiro is the first AL West player to show up, and he’s expected to be here.
I’ll also please guilty to “Who is Mike Napoli?”
Who are the trailers in offense in the AL? Who cannot hit this season? Let’s take a look:
Pos Name Last Team G PA XRpt XR/150 CF Joey Gathright TBD 55 182 -11 -36 LF Garret Anderson LAA 76 318 -11 -21 C Jose Molina LAA 43 136 -11 -44 RF Nick Markakis BAL 76 251 -11 -28 RF Damon Hollins TBD 74 225 -11 -29 1B Casey Kotchman LAA 29 88 -12 -71 SS Juan Castro MIN 50 164 -12 -40 CF Brian Anderson CHW 68 208 -12 -34 C Toby Hall TBD 64 234 -12 -29 SS Tomas Perez TBD 62 136 -13 -51 LF Lew Ford MIN 67 208 -13 -38 CF Jeremy Reed SEA 67 229 -13 -33 LF Craig Monroe DET 75 286 -14 -27 DH Phil Nevin TEX 46 199 -15 -43 1B Richie Sexson SEA 88 365 -15 -24 RF Jay Payton OAK 72 289 -15 -31 DH Carl Everett SEA 83 306 -18 -35 1B Travis Lee TBD 71 228 -18 -46 CF Mark Kotsay OAK 78 351 -19 -32 SS Angel Berroa KCR 80 308 -21 -37 DH Rondell White MIN 54 191 -33 -90It is not good for your team to have a Designated Hitter that cannot hit. Three regular DHs are at the bottom of this list. These guys need to get a glove or be replaced.
One interesting thing here is the population of Devil Rays. What is really cool to me is that two of them are former Devil Rays. Are the Devil Rays a sabermetric team? Have they started listening to a Primate that works there?
Now who are the best overall players?
Pos Name Last Team XRpt RSpt Total DH Travis Hafner CLE 40 1 41 CF Vernon Wells TOR 24 8 32 DH Jim Thome CHW 30 1 30 C Joe Mauer MIN 27 3 30 CF Grady Sizemore CLE 24 3 27 RF Ichiro Suzuki SEA 19 4 23 3B Mike Lowell BOS 7 16 23 1B Jason Giambi NYY 29 -6 22 SS Carlos Guillen DET 18 3 21 RF Jerm. Dye CHW 22 -2 20 LF Marcus Thames DET 17 3 20 SS Derek Jeter NYY 26 -6 20 DH David Ortiz BOS 19 1 19 LF Carl Crawford TBD 11 8 19 RF Alex Rios TOR 14 5 19 1B Justin Morneau MIN 17 2 19 CF Johnny Damon NYY 14 5 18 CF Curt Grand'son DET 13 4 18 2B Brian Roberts BAL 9 9 17 1B Chris Shelton DET 6 12 17 LF Reed Johnson TOR 16 0 16 C Mike Napoli LAA 16 0 16 SS Orlando Cabrera LAA 13 2 15 LF Manny Ramirez BOS 27 -12 15 3B Alex Rodriguez NYY 16 -2 15Hafner is going to get robbed this season if some sportswriters don’t start talking about what a great season he is having. I’m not a fan of the DH, but the man is way ahead, even if you dock him below the Indians 1B in the field. He looks like the MVP right now.
ARod is having a down season, and it is showing up. He’s slipped quite a bit with the glove the last two years, and this season makes it look like a real loss of range to me.
I’ve heard a good deal about how Granderson should be getting lots of press, but Marcus Thames and Carlos Guillen are the players performing best on the Tigers team. The Tigers have four of the top 25 players in the league. That’s not including the pitchers. It’s an impressive year.
The Most Valuable Red Sox? Mike Lowell. Few people have noticed. Sure, they knew he was playing better this season, but his glove has been phenomenal. Preventing 16 runs above average at third base is outstanding for an entire season. Lowell has managed it in just over half a season.
Now what teams are playing well defensively? I thought it would be interesting to sum each position to see where the defensive weaknesses were for each team, and to evaluate who the good defensive teams are.
Tm/Pos C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Arms Total BAL 4 -2 10 -8 -7 6 4 -4 -1 2 BOS -7 -1 -5 15 4 -12 -8 -6 -2 -22 CHW -3 -11 -7 3 8 -2 2 -3 -2 -15 CLE -9 -3 -5 -2 -2 2 2 4 1 -12 DET 6 10 15 9 4 6 4 -1 -1 53 KCR 0 4 10 -2 -13 6 -6 6 1 8 LAA 1 5 -7 -3 3 3 6 1 1 12 MIN 4 2 -9 -7 -2 3 5 -3 2 -5 NYY 0 -2 3 -1 -5 -9 5 -3 -1 -13 OAK 3 -2 8 -3 5 1 -3 6 -2 12 SEA 3 -2 -2 3 0 0 -5 4 1 1 TBD -2 2 -14 -3 3 8 -6 -2 1 -12 TEX 5 -1 4 3 1 -12 -7 -3 2 -8 TOR -4 2 -1 -6 0 -1 5 6 0 0The Tigers are above average at every position except right field. That’s just incredible. And the difference between the Tigers and the White Sox can be summed up with the leather. The Tigers have a 68-run lead defensively. That’s six wins.
The Red Sox are weak all over the field, except for Lowell and Gonzalez. Even tempering Manny’s defense with a Green Monster adjustment, they are in the bottom of the league defensively. The Angels and the A’s are two other good defensive teams, and I was surprised at how well the Royals rated. The Royals’ rating makes sense when you think about Grudzielanek and Mientkiewicz.
The quality of the defense the Tigers are playing makes me think they will be difficult to topple. Even if the White Sox chase them down, I don’t see them faltering enough to drop out of the Wild Card.
Coming next: All the same data for the National League.
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I'd vote for Jeter for MVP if I had a vote.
It's a DOMINATE season.
I don't know how much you follow the AL, but of those three, two have already been replaced and the third has one foot out the door.
I did know. My comment was more directed toward their future careers. I can certainly see that isn't clear.
You clearly don't not watch enough baseball, Artie. Those numbers don't lie!
I thought it was that the Monster cut into some of the fielding zones, and therefore some balls that caromed off the wall were counted against Manny.
Not sure why people would be surprised that Crisp's defense hasn't been that good.
He played good defense in LEFT FIELD, but that doesn't necessarily translate to good defense in CENTER FIELD.
F
Ok, that makes sense to me.
Is there any (relatively) easy way to adjust the numbers? I don't suppose anyone tracks batted balls that strike the wall for the various parks.
He looks like the real deal this year, though.
It almost always does, though, doesn't it? The stats also generally had him as good in CF as well, IIRC.
Darren is correct. I spoke with STATS about it and that does have some contamination to it. Manny gets more assists than most due to the wall, but overall, I think it makes him look worse than he is, but I doubt it is by, say, 50% or anything.
I attended a Cubs/Red Sox game last year and I was stunned by Manny's arm. That dude has a real cannon.
Of course, that doesn't mean the wall isn't adding to the assist totals.
Yeah, spot on for Saarloos. Blanton's .327 BABIP suggests the defense isn't helping him too much (his GB and LD rates seem very average). His 4.20 DIPS is better than last year, and just ahead of Verlander and the Unit this year. He'll probably allow more HR in the second half, but the BABIP should come down. He'll probably be averagish.
Adam Kennedy's poor defense jumps out at me. How's Kendrick's D? Also, I've always seen Scutaro rated as a below average defender (except by BPro).
Scutaro I've always viewed as"about average", meaning that sometimes he will play -5 and sometimes +5. I'm not really surprised there.
Also remember, *half* of a season of defensive data isn't terribly conclusive. Some of these players will find their true talent level.
It is *very* good to see players regarded as good defenders at the top though. It intimates we're doing something right. The "right" NL players surfaced at the top as well.
Everyone looks like they have a cannon when they're throwing from 200 feet to home instead of 250 or 300.
Kennedy's rating does not surprise me. He has not looked nearly as good as in past years. He may just be getting old.
I haven't seen enough of Kendrick to make a judgment. Scouting reports suggest he could be average or a bit below.
If we're going to get average at best defense from 2B, might as well play the one who hits like Kirby Puckett.
Not really. You should expect a player to be worse in center than he was in left. My stats had Coco as an average CF. He's played too little this year to take that negative rating too seriously. I find it hard to believe the guy who robbed David Wright to end that game is a bad CF.
That's a real possibility. I haven't seen much of Kennedy this year, so old age could be the issue.
WRT Crisp - it's 400 Innings, so that's not a complete picture. He's probably playing around average and that mark will *probably* improve.
In a half season, and Crisp only has a third of one, there can be some variation. One reason I wanted to get this out was so we can see how much this changes at season end.
More than that, though, I think that Manny takes advantage of the accuracy of his arm, which is well above average. Instead of winding up to gun the ball as hard as he can, Manny works for the quickest release possible, which I think has helped him a lot in the past few years. I think a number of LF could learn from his example.
I think it's an open question as to whether a good LF rating would translate to a decent CF. The switch to CF may work most of the time, but fail with regards to certain players. For instance, it's possible that Crisp may have most of the tools necessary to be an average or better CF--good speed, good acceleration, etc.--while lacking the ability to recognize the ball off the bat quickly. That said, I haven't seen a lot of Crisp in CF, so that's merely speculation on my part.
Also, I'd imagine that, as good as his performance there may have been, Crisp's career 1850 innings LF need to be regressed quite a bit before being translated to CF.
The Monster forces LFs to play shallower than they typically do elsewhere, which makes it impossible to cover the *typical* LF zones, and kills their ZR (opposing LFs do poorly at Fenway, also). There needs to be a park adjustment for Fenway. A similar problem shows up in LF in Houston (Crawford boxes) and RF in Baltimore (scoreboard).
-- MWE
This is a very good point. It is what has made Bonds so great as a LF. He's always had a weak arm, but he has always been very quick and accurate with the ball. Based on his play I have seen, that's exactly how I see it as well.
I don't know if this is the correct interpretation. For starters, the Monster cannot "force" a player to play more shallow than he wants. He can stand with his back agains thte wall. It is very clear to me, LFs can get to the wall and the foul line without too much impact,a nd so I don't see where non-wall BIP are impacted on plays for LFs.
The ZR plays that are impacted are ones where the balls hit the wall. Shallow play does not create teh loss in other zones, I don't think. And shallow play, if you trade it for other outs isn't necessarily the correct play. Theoretically, playing shallower would allow one to cut off another set of balls, which doesn't appear to happen in a significant amount.
As discussed before, Andruw Jones shallow pl;ay helped his ZR - granted not as much as it should have, but that doesn't seem to show up or "make up for" the wall in Fenway.
I see some impact in Houston, but I'm not sure about the Baltimore scoreboard.
I don't see how a LFer could effectively play the Monster if he were right up on it. I think he has to be away from it as a practical matter, unless the manager makes all caroms the CF's responsibility.
Gappers aren't part of Manny's ZR.
I don't see how a LFer could effectively play the Monster if he were right up on it. I think he has to be away from it as a practical matter, unless the manager makes all caroms the CF's responsibility.
Wow. That's obviously not what I meant. No other walls force OF to play right up against them. The rule of thumb is that you play as far from the wall as is necessary to get back to it on FBs. You do not have to play so shallow in Fenway that you can't cover all the area in front of the wall as well.
And hte ball doesn't bounce that far off the weall (on the fly). And after it bounces off, it doesn't hit the ground and stop. In addition, even if you were to *start* with your back to the wall, if a ball was going over your head, you can simply move in to play hte carom (which is easier than going back).
Look at the performance of non-Red Sox OFs in Fenway, compared to how they perform against the Red Sox in their own ballparks, and tell me that again. I don't know why this is such a difficult concept to grasp.
When I had three full years of zone data back when STATS still had its STATS On-Line service, the effect was both obvious and consistent; LFs in Fenway, whether they play for Boston or the opposition, routinely had ZRs in Fenway that were on the order of .100-.150 below what they posted in Red Sox games in other ball parks. A similar effect showed up in LF in Houston (which, I note, is -19 in LF this year) and in RF in Baltimore (which is -4 this year, surprisingly small).
-- MWE
Well, Mike, it isn't a difficult concept to grasp. What seems to be eluding you is that that depression isn't defined. You have presented no evidence that the low ZR value isn't solely due to balls that hit the wall - which is what I was saying.
I have no doubt that the wall depresses ZR. I've said as much since 1997.
What I don't know is whether or not the effect is solely due to the balls off wall - and that says *NOTHING* to refute the point of whether or not they have to play shallow. If the LF isn't catching other balls that don't hit the wall, then they should be playing deep enough to do so, and I'd be surprised if the Monster created that situation.
He may not be much for straying from first base, but groundballs hit in that area, he fields and turns into outs.
Based on those numbers, if the Yankees make the playoffs and he keeps it up, I'm very sure Jeter lands the MVP
further points on that Red Sox league-worst defensive rating:
tek is right around league average, so that -7 runs at C is entirely due to wakefield starts. remembering just how gruesome bard's starts were before mirabelli donned his spandex outfit with the big letter C on the chest and flew back here from san diego just in time to beat the yankees, i'd bet we finish the season at -8 or -9, not -13
just eyeball confirmation of what's been said about the monster's affect on ZR-based fielding metrics: manny is a lousy LF, lots of very catchable balls near the line (is that the smallest patch of outfield foul territory in the majors?) end up dropping for doubles. but he's also not quite as bad as the numbers suggest :D
like the bard situation at C, some of the negative in RF come from three atrocious games Wily Mo Pena had there. he looked much more comfortable (and competent) filling in at CF after Coco was hurt, and it's a safe bet he won't get more chances to kill us in RF unless he's figured out how to play the tough corners without completely embarassing himself out there.
mike lowell really is that good, it's been amazing watching him, and i think the way he steals hits has a lot to do with the media's overhyping of our defense. that and a keystone combo that can turn the routine double play.
anyhow, knocking off a good number of the runs allowed that came from bard, pena and manny's monster penalty, i'd guess that the sox are solidly in the pack with the worst defensive teams in the AL - yankees, chisox, tampa and cleveland - rather than 50% worse than any of them.
sorry to go on for so long. what else is there to do at 5 am over the all-star break?
1. Hafner was not there. Wha? I guess he should have campaigned like A.J. did.
2. In an interview with Jonathan Papelbon both the interviewing broadcaster and the pitcher emphasized how incredible the Red Sox defense was this year, making his job really easy. He probably didn't notice the real story, since he's getting one out per inning all on his own.
:)
Actually, it was the White Sox marketing department that campaigned for AJ (although I think AJ said that he and his wife voted early and often for him). Whoever is running Cleveland's marketing department is just about as good as his/her job as whoever is working on pitching and defense for the Indians.
I'm sure Hafner liked the time off. More opportunity to work on shaving his knuckles!
It's going to be Jeter or Mauer, unless the White Sox take first place by storm, in which case it'll be Jim Thome.
Of course, I fully expect the Yankees to make the playoffs.
Forgive my ignorance here. Are the offensive rankings adjusted by position, or do they represent the sheer value the player created as a batter independent of position?
If it is the latter, I don't think a -6 penalty to Hafner is enough. Even though Jeter is a sub-par SS, surely he should be given more credit than a DH. Right? Or is my reasoning flawed?
Dewan's +/- system had Manny at -13 plays at home last season and -1 on the road ... but over the last three years that goes to -19 at home and -12 on the road. Unfortunately, though The Fielding Bible tracks both hits and extra bases prevented by fielders, that info isn't broken down in the home/road splits, so it's impossible to speculate on how that system sees the Wall as affecting singles vis-a-vis extra-base hits.
If the season were to end today, Ortiz would win the MVP.
It is the former.
That's 7-8 GBs. Does he have a couple more errors this season than last at this point?
When I say I'd be surprised if he were truly a -5, I'm referring to his true talent level, I'm not contesting that his measured performance to this point in the season may be a -5.
When I say I'd be surprised if he were truly a -5, I'm referring to his true talent level, I'm not contesting that his measured performance to this point in the season may be a -5.
Hmmm, good guess by me. Here's the answer, as unsatisfying as it is going to be: if Kennedy's "true talent" on errors has moved to 12 a season rather than 5 a season, then I would suggest that -5 *is* ihis true talent level.
I was talking ot one of my Imps the other day about Steve Sax and Chuck Knoblauch - both of whom began gaffing in their early 30s. Is Kennedy making predominantly throwing errors?
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