Offense Plus Defense (OPD) - NL Through Sept 02, 2008
Oh, goodness. The races are tightening up and the MVP talks are starting to percolate. Yes, kids, the New York Yankees will not be participating in the post-season for the first time in well over a decade - but I think their post-season run falls short of the Braves (although the Braves was interrupted in 1994, so they didn’t win the division that year). The Yankees place was taken by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. What a great country!
What follows is a discussion of the NL OPD (offense plus defense) leaders and who should be headed for the MVP. Sometimes the month of September can be enough to move players in this ranking when they are tightly bunched. So, while these are the leaders, the rankings are not cemented.
The runs are rated above average at position. The offense is XR, park-adjusted, and specific to the number of outs a player has used up. The defense is DRS (Defensive Runs Saved: ZR converted to runs), explained in my previous work. It is runs, not plays, above average. The units are the same, so I simply add the numbers together. The decimal places are for consistency’s sake, not meant to represent accuracy. There are several runs of give in these (and any) numbers, offense or defense.
In this data, the catcher defense is properly calculated, including all passed ball, stolen base data, as well as incorporating the ZR data. This is different from previous datasets, but the complaining about it was enough to get me to make the effort.
There is some taint in some of the defensive data. If a player played more than one position, I have summed all of his defensive contributions and using that total number for his DRS at his Primary defensive position. There are very few players this affects, and none are impacted significantly. Mark DeRosa and Endy Chavez are two who see some difference, but it more accurately reflects their total contribution to their team’s successes by including all of their defense. For DeRosa, his 2B defense is 0.8 runs higher than his overall contribution, but it doesn’t change his standing at all. Endy is possibly the best defensive outfielder in the game, but he plays all three positions, so his total reflects how many runs he has saved the Mets. I also include Aaron Miles’ pitching runs and Chris Resop’s outfield defense. All of the NL, plus team totals is shared in a Google Doc here. The green represents the top mark in a category at a position and the yellow represents the worst mark.
All that done, let’s talk about some players. Scroll to the bottom if you want to see who the NL MVP is going to be.
Catcher
This isn’t a strong year for catchers - sort of. there are three catchers having great years at the dish: Brian McCann, Geovany Soto and Ryan Doumit. However, none is a defensive whiz, and these performances don’t crack the top ten in the league. Soto is the Cubs position player MVP thusfar, but I don’t know if he will be by season’s end.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
McCann Brian ATL C -2.0 28.2 26.2
Soto Geo CHC C -0.2 25.8 25.6
Doumit Ryan PIT C -3.0 20.6 17.6
The best defensive catcher at this point in the season is Jason Kendall (+9.2). The worst is Michael Barrett (-5.2), followed by Josh Bard (-4.9). The Padres simply don’t value defense behind the plate.
Right Field
Early this season, really early, there was some talk about “getting MVP consideration”. I don’t recall who the focus was, but it was in May, and I made a crack about including Ryan Ludwick. Well, here we are in September, and Ryan Ludwick has had a terrific season. He’s been the best-hitting RF this season, and only Brian Giles’ glove has him in a dead heat with Ludwick for the best overall RF. He and Giles are 8-9 in the NL OPD rankings.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Ludwick Ryan STL RF -2.3 33.0 30.7
Giles Brian SDP RF 11.5 18.9 30.4
Werth Jayson PHI RF 5.6 17.1 22.7
Jayson Werth is a terrific ballplayer, and it is good to see him getting lots of at-bats. I’d prefer he got them with a team not in the Mets division, but....
Center Field
Some Mets fans purportedly are unhappy with Carlos Beltran’s performance, but he’s the best CF in the league for three years in a row. He’s a Gold Glove fielder and the best hitter. That’s a tough crowd that wants to complain about that. Nate McLouth hit a ton early, but couldn’t field very well. His fielding, with a larger sample for the entire league, is smoothing out but still bad. Jody Gerut, who missed a few seasons, has been very good for the Padres. He’s hitting well and fielding well. And there’s Cody Ross having a strong season for the Marlins. He’s not close to Beltran, but he is having a good year.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Beltran Carlos NYM CF 7.6 24.4 32.1
Gerut Jody SDP CF 10.1 18.4 28.5
Ross Cody FLA CF 6.7 11.5 18.2
Beltran has the seventh best OPD in the NL.
Left Field
Without Barry Bonds, the quality of hitting from left field leaves quite a bit to be desired. How bad has it been? In a month, Manny Ramirez has jumped to the second slot. The Brewers have gotten great play from Ryan Braun, but he doesn’t take enough pitches to dominate the position. Last year’s MVP candidate, Matt Holliday, has played very well in anonymity. After last year’s amazing run, I expected to hear all about the Rockies this season. I haven’t, and Holliday is having a standout year.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Holliday Matt COL LF 6.2 29.5 35.7
Ramirez Manny LAD LF 2.9 19.0 21.8
Braun Ryan MIL LF 0.1 18.9 19.0
Burrell Pat PHI LF 3.8 13.8 17.5
Pat Burrell was in the top slot at the AS Break, but his bat and his glove have regressed. That hasn’t made Charlie Manuel nor Phillies fans too happy.
Third Base
Last year, the best thrid baseman was a near tie between David Wright and Chipper Jones. Wright compounded the insult by winning a Gold Glove (that should have gone to Pedro Feliz). Chipper was none to happy, and has been a monster this year, but has also seen his older body a bit more sensitive to pain. Wright is still in second behind Chipper, but it is a distant second, as Chipper flirted with hitting .400 for the first three months and has played Gold Glove-caliber defense. Chipper is fourth in the league in OPD. Wright is 11th.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Jones Chipper ATL 3B 7.9 42.8 50.7
Wright David NYM 3B -0.4 29.6 29.2
Wigginton Ty HOU 3B 0.4 16.2 16.6
I know what you are all saying: Really? Ty Wigginton? It’s been that kind of year.
Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins won an MVP when he was the third best shortstop...in the division. Rollins has dropped off a ton since last year, and Hanley Ramirez worked on his defense, and is well out in front of the other NL East shortstops.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Ramirez Hanley FLA SS -0.8 52.0 51.2
Reyes Jose NYM SS -8.1 38.3 30.2
Furcal Rafael LAD SS 1.1 17.2 18.3
Rollins Jimmy PHI SS 4.0 12.2 16.2
Rollins is forty runs behind Hanley with the bat and nearly thirty behind Reyes. Offensive seasons can have dramatic year-to-year swings. Hanley is ranked third in NL OPD runs, while Reyes is 10th.
Second Base
Chase Utley. Just retire the award already. His dominance over other NL 2B is just incredible. He started the season very hot but has cooled off, and he also leads the league in HBPs.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Utley Chase PHI 2B 9.3 36.8 46.1
DeRosa Mark CHC 2B 2.1 23.0 25.2
Uggla Dan FLA 2B -5.6 25.6 20.0
Fontenot Mike CHC 2B 4.8 11.5 16.3
However, the Cubs have two guys that compare to Utley - when you add them together. DeRosa and Fontenot, in addition to being defensively versatile, are both having great seasons at the plate.
First Base
Lance Berkman is having a great season, but Albert Pujols is having his best ever. Pujols has certainly felt robbed of MVP awards, losing out to Barry Bonds for half of his career and then a couple of iffy ones to Phillies. This is going to be Albert’s year. It has to be. He’s got a full lap on the league with 22 games to play. He’s the best defensive first baseman, the best offensive first baseman and the best offensive player in the league. If he gets hot, he could pass an OPS+ of 200. That doesn’t happen very often. Berkman has been the second best player in the league (maybe third behind Lincecum), and he’s just not close to Albert.
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Pujols Albert STL 1B 11.9 58.2 70.1
Berkman Lance HOU 1B 9.1 45.1 54.2
Teixe'ra Mark ATL 1B 11.7 11.5 23.2
The Top Twenty
Player Name Team Primary DRS Xra+AA OPD
Pujols Albert STL 1B 11.9 58.2 70.1
Berkman Lance HOU 1B 9.1 45.1 54.2
Ramirez Hanley FLA SS -0.8 52.0 51.2
Jones Chipper ATL 3B 7.9 42.8 50.7
Utley Chase PHI 2B 9.3 36.8 46.1
Holliday Matt COL LF 6.2 29.5 35.7
Beltran Carlos NYM CF 7.6 24.4 32.1
Ludwick Ryan STL RF -2.3 33.0 30.7
Giles Brian SDP RF 11.5 18.9 30.4
Reyes Jose NYM SS -8.1 38.3 30.2
Wright David NYM 3B -0.4 29.6 29.2
Gerut Jody SDP CF 10.1 18.4 28.5
McCann Brian ATL C -2.0 28.2 26.2
Soto Geo CHC C -0.2 25.8 25.6
DeRosa Mark CHC 2B 2.1 23.0 25.2
Teixeira Mark ATL 1B 11.7 11.5 23.2
Werth Jayson PHI RF 5.6 17.1 22.7
Ramirez Manny LAD LF 2.9 19.0 21.8
Uggla Dan FLA 2B -5.6 25.6 20.0
Braun Ryan MIL LF 0.1 18.9 19.0
Chris Dial
Posted: September 03, 2008 at 01:57 PM |
46 comment(s)
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My point? As outstanding as they are . . . you need all three of them to top Pujols. How magnificent is that guy?
Some idiot on the radio was saying that Delgado might be a contender for MVP. Idiot.
Pujols is dreamy.
Or maybe their pitchers just don't hold anyone on?
Interestingly, he's not been bad in the field.
even if you give him half credit as you said in your blurb, he goes from -4 to +3 in a matter of 6 weeks (give or take)?
he switched leagues. His +3 is just what he's done with teh Dodgers. His poor play with the Red Sox doesn't impact his stats now (nor are his hitting stats including his Red Sox time).
This only counts his fielding as a Dodger, and small sample sizes make odd things happen.
That doesn't make any sense, unless you expect him to be a below average left fielder for the rest of the season. His runs above average per game, or per plate appearance will drop off, but as long as he remains an above average left fielder overall, he should remain in the top 20. Unless there's a flaw in the statistic.
Also, I'm not a big believer in that defensive stat for Ramirez.
there are flaws in EVERY statistic.
that's exactly my point: in his 6 weeks of being a dodger, he's forgotten 7 1/2 years of familiarity of the green monster and historically bad defense and turned it around to adjust to a new stadium, new league, new set of pitchers (if you believe that pitchers can influence where balls are hit), and been above average (i think your stat says he's saved 3 runs above the average left fielder in the given number of plate appearances?)
or is this just a case of small sample size and him getting lucky (or being extra diligent/motivated to be out of boston - which is very possible)?
i just find it hard to believe that virtually every advanced defensive metric (not just yours) for the past 5-10 years has made out manny ramirez to be a statue and all of a sudden, he's above average.
what your second paragraph says. And he wasn't that bad in Cleveland.
Unfortunately the defensive stats probably don't capture his bases-loaded, no outs, hesitation on a GB that resulted in a run scored/forced at second rather than the force at home. On the next play, Feliz tried for a DP and only got one out where he would have gone for the force if the bases had been loaded. The next batter grounded out -- so Howard more or less contributed 2 runs to the Nats last night. Howard, with the ball in his hand is dangerous, and he knows it, and hesitates a lot.
You're mis-interpreting the data. It's not that all of a sudden he's above average; it's that he comes out as above average over a month. Awful hitters still hit .300 for a month here or there.
Just like those hitters are likely getting some fat pitches and some balls to fall in during those hot streaks, fielders often get easier distributions of batted balls, etc. It may be as simple as that.
Or maybe his historically bad defensive statistics were born out of a fenway quirk.
Maybe you should see his numbers from Aug 1. This Braves team sucked before July 31, but were trying. They flat out stopped caring after the Tex trade.
Ofcourse pumpkin still has a 900 OPS despite a 740ish ops since the trade. And pumpkin managed to put up a 1145 OPS in July as the clocks were striking 13 on him.
I don't understand how Arizona catching can be in negative territory. When I look at the spread sheet and look up Snyder and Montero:
Synder 11.4 OPD
Montero 2.0 OPS
But in the Team Page, you have AZ -1.5 in Catching OPD
I don't understand SS either:
Drew 9.8 OPD
Ojeda -2.2 OPD
But you have AZ -6.3 in Team OPD at SS
I didn't look up any other positions. Can you explain what I'm missing here. Thanks
I may have made a mistake in sorting?
Hey, we are all a team here. You put your work up for "peer review"......you have my utmost respect in this regard. Nobody expects you to be perfect. I thought I might have been missing something.......I have been known to do that too. ;)
Thanks for your work.
Of the top 20, chipper, holliday and tex are still off in my browser. Any time you use tabs, this can happen.
Don't worry about it. Looks fine to me.
but who cares. you got enough to work on.
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