Offense Plus Defense (OPD) - NL Through Sept 02, 2008

Oh, goodness.  The races are tightening up and the MVP talks are starting to percolate.  Yes, kids, the New York Yankees will not be participating in the post-season for the first time in well over a decade - but I think their post-season run falls short of the Braves (although the Braves was interrupted in 1994, so they didn’t win the division that year).  The Yankees place was taken by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  What a great country! 

What follows is a discussion of the NL OPD (offense plus defense) leaders and who should be headed for the MVP.  Sometimes the month of September can be enough to move players in this ranking when they are tightly bunched.  So, while these are the leaders, the rankings are not cemented. 

The runs are rated above average at position.  The offense is XR, park-adjusted, and specific to the number of outs a player has used up.  The defense is DRS (Defensive Runs Saved: ZR converted to runs), explained in my previous work.  It is runs, not plays, above average. The units are the same, so I simply add the numbers together.  The decimal places are for consistency’s sake, not meant to represent accuracy.  There are several runs of give in these (and any) numbers, offense or defense. 

In this data, the catcher defense is properly calculated, including all passed ball, stolen base data, as well as incorporating the ZR data.  This is different from previous datasets, but the complaining about it was enough to get me to make the effort. 

There is some taint in some of the defensive data.  If a player played more than one position, I have summed all of his defensive contributions and using that total number for his DRS at his Primary defensive position.  There are very few players this affects, and none are impacted significantly.  Mark DeRosa and Endy Chavez are two who see some difference, but it more accurately reflects their total contribution to their team’s successes by including all of their defense.  For DeRosa, his 2B defense is 0.8 runs higher than his overall contribution, but it doesn’t change his standing at all.  Endy is possibly the best defensive outfielder in the game, but he plays all three positions, so his total reflects how many runs he has saved the Mets.  I also include Aaron Miles’ pitching runs and Chris Resop’s outfield defense.  All of the NL, plus team totals is shared in a Google Doc here.  The green represents the top mark in a category at a position and the yellow represents the worst mark.

All that done, let’s talk about some players.  Scroll to the bottom if you want to see who the NL MVP is going to be.

Catcher
This isn’t a strong year for catchers - sort of.  there are three catchers having great years at the dish: Brian McCann, Geovany Soto and Ryan Doumit.  However, none is a defensive whiz, and these performances don’t crack the top ten in the league.  Soto is the Cubs position player MVP thusfar, but I don’t know if he will be by season’s end.

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
McCann	 Brian	ATL	C	-2.0	28.2	26.2
Soto	 Geo	CHC	C	-0.2	25.8	25.6
Doumit	 Ryan	PIT	C	-3.0	20.6	17.6

The best defensive catcher at this point in the season is Jason Kendall (+9.2).  The worst is Michael Barrett (-5.2), followed by Josh Bard (-4.9).  The Padres simply don’t value defense behind the plate. 

Right Field
Early this season, really early, there was some talk about “getting MVP consideration”.  I don’t recall who the focus was, but it was in May, and I made a crack about including Ryan Ludwick.  Well, here we are in September, and Ryan Ludwick has had a terrific season.  He’s been the best-hitting RF this season, and only Brian Giles’ glove has him in a dead heat with Ludwick for the best overall RF.  He and Giles are 8-9 in the NL OPD rankings.

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Ludwick	 Ryan	STL	RF	-2.3	33.0	30.7
Giles	 Brian	SDP	RF	11.5	18.9	30.4
Werth	 Jayson	PHI	RF	5.6	17.1	22.7

Jayson Werth is a terrific ballplayer, and it is good to see him getting lots of at-bats.  I’d prefer he got them with a team not in the Mets division, but....

Center Field
Some Mets fans purportedly are unhappy with Carlos Beltran’s performance, but he’s the best CF in the league for three years in a row.  He’s a Gold Glove fielder and the best hitter.  That’s a tough crowd that wants to complain about that.  Nate McLouth hit a ton early, but couldn’t field very well.  His fielding, with a larger sample for the entire league, is smoothing out but still bad.  Jody Gerut, who missed a few seasons, has been very good for the Padres.  He’s hitting well and fielding well.  And there’s Cody Ross having a strong season for the Marlins.  He’s not close to Beltran, but he is having a good year.

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Beltran	 Carlos	NYM	CF	7.6	24.4	32.1
Gerut	 Jody	SDP	CF	10.1	18.4	28.5
Ross	 Cody	FLA	CF	6.7	11.5	18.2

Left Field
Without Barry Bonds, the quality of hitting from left field leaves quite a bit to be desired.  How bad has it been?  In a month, Manny Ramirez has jumped to the second slot.  The Brewers have gotten great play from Ryan Braun, but he doesn’t take enough pitches to dominate the position.  Last year’s MVP candidate, Matt Holliday, has played very well in anonymity.  After last year’s amazing run, I expected to hear all about the Rockies this season.  I haven’t, and Holliday is having a standout year.

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Holliday	 Matt	COL	LF	6.2	29.5	35.7
Ramirez	 Manny	LAD	LF	2.9	19.0	21.8
Braun	 Ryan	MIL	LF	0.1	18.9	19.0
Burrell	 Pat	PHI	LF	3.8	13.8	17.5

Third Base
Last year, the best thrid baseman was a near tie between David Wright and Chipper Jones.  Wright compounded the insult by winning a Gold Glove (that should have gone to Pedro Feliz).  Chipper was none to happy, and has been a monster this year, but has also seen his older body a bit more sensitive to pain.  Wright is still in second behind Chipper, but it is a distant second, as Chipper flirted with hitting .400 for the first three months and has played Gold Glove-caliber defense.  Chipper is fourth in the league in OPD.  Wright is 11th.

Player  Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Jones	 Chipper	ATL	3B	7.9	42.8	50.7
Wright	 David	NYM	3B	-0.4	29.6	29.2
Wigginton	 Ty	HOU	3B	0.4	16.2	16.6

Shortstop
Jimmy Rollins won an MVP when he was the third best shortstop...in the division.  Rollins has dropped off a ton since last year, and Hanley Ramirez worked on his defense, and is well out in front of the other NL East shortstops.

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Ramirez	 Hanley	FLA	SS	-0.8	52.0	51.2
Reyes	 Jose	NYM	SS	-8.1	38.3	30.2
Furcal	 Rafael	LAD	SS	1.1	17.2	18.3
Rollins	 Jimmy	PHI	SS	4.0	12.2	16.2

Second Base
Chase Utley.  Just retire the award already.  His dominance over other NL 2B is just incredible.  He started the season very hot but has cooled off, and he also leads the league in HBPs.

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Utley	 Chase	PHI	2B	9.3	36.8	46.1
DeRosa	 Mark	CHC	2B	2.1	23.0	25.2
Uggla	 Dan	FLA	2B	-5.6	25.6	20.0
Fontenot	 Mike	CHC	2B	4.8	11.5	16.3

First Base
Lance Berkman is having a great season, but Albert Pujols is having his best ever.  Pujols has certainly felt robbed of MVP awards, losing out to Barry Bonds for half of his career and then a couple of iffy ones to Phillies.  This is going to be Albert’s year.  It has to be.  He’s got a full lap on the league with 22 games to play.  He’s the best defensive first baseman, the best offensive first baseman and the best offensive player in the league.  If he gets hot, he could pass an OPS+ of 200.  That doesn’t happen very often.  Berkman has been the second best player in the league (maybe third behind Lincecum), and he’s just not close to Albert.

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Pujols	 Albert	STL	1B	11.9	58.2	70.1
Berkman	 Lance	HOU	1B	9.1	45.1	54.2
Teixe'ra	 Mark	ATL	1B	11.7	11.5	23.2

The Top Twenty

Player	Name	Team	Primary	DRS	Xra+AA	OPD
Pujols	 Albert	STL	1B	11.9	58.2	70.1
Berkman	 Lance	HOU	1B	9.1	45.1	54.2
Ramirez	 Hanley	FLA	SS	-0.8	52.0	51.2
Jones	 Chipper	ATL	3B	7.9	42.8	50.7
Utley	 Chase	PHI	2B	9.3	36.8	46.1
Holliday	 Matt	COL	LF	6.2	29.5	35.7
Beltran	 Carlos	NYM	CF	7.6	24.4	32.1
Ludwick	 Ryan	STL	RF	-2.3	33.0	30.7
Giles	 Brian	SDP	RF	11.5	18.9	30.4
Reyes	 Jose	NYM	SS	-8.1	38.3	30.2
Wright	 David	NYM	3B	-0.4	29.6	29.2
Gerut	 Jody	SDP	CF	10.1	18.4	28.5
McCann	 Brian	ATL	C	-2.0	28.2	26.2
Soto	 Geo	CHC	C	-0.2	25.8	25.6
DeRosa	 Mark	CHC	2B	2.1	23.0	25.2
Teixeira	 Mark	ATL	1B	11.7	11.5	23.2
Werth	 Jayson	PHI	RF	5.6	17.1	22.7
Ramirez	 Manny	LAD	LF	2.9	19.0	21.8
Uggla	 Dan	FLA	2B	-5.6	25.6	20.0
Braun	 Ryan	MIL	LF	0.1	18.9	19.0