The New Home Run King

Who?

Barry Lamar Bonds. Yes, a year ago, we heard how he was done, and would be lucky to play another game.  He may not even catch Ruth, much less Hank Aaron. He went on to hit twenty-six home runs, and is within a half season, or so, of the Hammer.

What?

The all time career home run record. Yes, the most treasured mark in the history of sports.  Nothing compares to this mark.  Well, perhaps the single season home run mark, and Bonds did what Aaron never could - set that mark.  And with seventy-three in 2001, he may have pushed the mark out where it won’t be approached for the time gaps that made it so treasured.  Ruth held the mark at 60 from 1927 to 1961 - 34 years.  Roger Maris broke that mark under tremendous pressure in 1961, and held the mark for 37 years.  Mark McGwire hit 70 in 1998, and held it for just three seasons.  Can Bonds hold the mark for thirty plus seasons or is a younger slugger like Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Howard going to climb over that mark? 

When?

Isn’t this what everyone wants to know?  The tickets for Giants’ games will be selling like hotcakes as he approaches the mark.  The Giants’ home tickets will already be mostly sold, but the away games are going to spike up even more.  Last season, the Giants were sixth in road attendance per game, with over 32,800.  As Bonds gets close in June and July, road games will be sold out.

But WHEN?

Over Bonds’ career, he has hit a home run for every thirteen at-bats.  In 2006, he hit a home run for every fourteen ABs.  We are all aware that he had a sore knee the first few months of the season, and he was walked a good deal.  Looking at Bonds’ last two months of the season, when he had a good knee, and teams were pitching to him like he was mortal, he hit a home run every twelve ABs.  So when pitchers were walking Bonds he hit worse and homered less, and given the Giants lineup, that seems to have been a good approach.

Another thing we know is that Bonds will get some days off.  He’s got a new manager, so it’s hard to say exactly when.  We can be sure he’ll routinely get games off that are day games after night games.  One would think he’d play more home games than away games, but that didn’t happen in 2006 - largely because he will DH in away games at American League parks where he might otherwise get a day off.

In the last two months, when pitchers clearly started pitching to Bonds - his walk rate dropped from 25% in the first four months to 18% in August and 15% in September.  Bonds’ batting average and slugging percentage also jumped dramatically in those months.  Looking at the games started and the at-bats over that period gives some indication that Bonds was getting about 3.1 at-bats per game.  Not plate appearances, but at-bats.

The Giants have twenty-five games in April.  Bonds will probably play in twenty-one of them.  There are four “day game after night game” that he can take a break on.  The Giants have twenty-eight games in May.  Bonds played more in May, and not well, with respect to home run rate.  Even in 2004, he homered at a lower rate in May than any other month.  This May, the Giants have three games at Oakland and four in Colorado.  I suspect he’ll miss three of the Giants’ games.  June and July look to end up similarly, with a healthy Bonds making it through the first four months missing around thirteen of his team’s 106 games.  That’s about 12% of games and would put Bonds on pace for 142 games or so.  That may be a bit optimistic, but he’s healthy, knee-wise, and looks to have the desire.

So where does all this lead?  It leads to Bonds’ 286th at-bat.  Which will happen in the first inning of Bonds’ 93rd game.  If Bonds has knee issues, he’ll get to break the record at home against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, August 7.

If Bonds feels good, that game will be on a nice July afternoon, the 25th, against the Atlanta Braves at PacBell (or whatever).  He can splash one down off John Smoltz , giving Smoltz the honor of being the pitcher Bonds has hit the most home runs off of.  Get your tickets now.