The 2007 National League MVP

I read lots of articles about who should be the MVP.  Albert Pujols, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday – and Jimmy Rollins won.  What I don’t see is an itemized offense plus defense (OPD) analysis to say “this guy should have won the MVP”.  Naturally, if the OPD is terrifically close between some players, we’ll tweak it toward something like better Win Probability Added (WPA), a tougher defensive position, or a player on my favorite team.  Whatever seems fairest.

Jimmy Rollins won the MVP, and as a Mets fan, I was naturally irritated.  Last year Ryan Howard won the award when Carlos Beltran deserved it, and I wasn’t too keen on a second straight year of a Phil taking a Mets player’s rightful award.  So did a Met player rightfully deserve the 2007 NL MVP?  There are a bunch of articles declaring that David Wright should have won the award.  Perhaps a couple of Mets would steal votes from one another to keep either from winning.

Let’s take a look at what Jimmy Rollins did.  Rollins played a tough defensive position and he hit a bunch of home runs (in a park with little league fences).  He had…

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Threatening the Owners

It takes a lot to threaten MLB owners.  Marvin Miller did it.  Don Fehr has done it.  You argue from a position of bettering the work environment, and a strike ensues.  The threat has to be credible, and at first, few take it seriously.  Only when it hurts do people see it means business, and sometimes even then stubbornness ignores the threat.

This morning at about 1 AM, FOX Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal threatened the owners.  Rosenthal threatened the owners that if one were to dare sign Barry Bonds, there would be repercussions.  Rosenthal pretends to open his ultimatum with an observation of rights, as many people do - hey, do what you want, that’s your right, but if you do…

I can appreciate people being unhappy that many, many baseball players have taken performance-enhancing drugs over the last fifty years.  I can certainly understand that many want the “Steroids Era” to go away.  But Bonds isn’t the only one.  Rosenthal writes that Bonds “represents” the cancer that is PEDs.  I wonder why that is, Ken?  Could it be that you, and your brethren, pursue and villify Bonds more vociferously?  Why isn’t Andy Pettitte representing the cancer?  For that matter, why…

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2007 Team Defense

There is no “team” offense.  Yes, there are bunts and hit-and-runs, but that’s a small part of offense.  There are mostly individual acts of hitting, representing upwards of 95% of a player’s offensive contributions.  You very rarely hear that a team plays good team offense.  You will see cumulative team stats, but most analysts have no problem reading a team line as the sum of its parts.

Sadly that type of understanding isn’t true about defense.  There is very little “team” in defense. Yes, there are double plays and proper relays, but that’s a small part of defense.  There are mostly individual acts of fielding that represent upwards of 95% of a player’s defensive contributions.  We’re going to set aside the pitcher’s component of a batted ball, and the ease with which it is turned into outs.  That’s a separate piece.

So which teams performed best defensively, and how much they could improve, or where they are giving away runs.

Here’s a look at the 2007 American League.

Team	1B DRS	2B DRS	3B DRS	SS DRS	LF DRS	CF DRS	RF DRS	C DRS	DRS SUM
TOR	0	12	-13	27	12	8	0	-12	35
BAL	-4	-1	0…

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The 2007 Calphalon Awards – Outfielders

The outfield always has some real doozies for defensive numbers.  The Green Monster epitomizes a park effect for outfielder defensive ratings.  However, any park with a high wall will affect outfielder ratings.  This will include the Marlins left field, the Baltimore right field and the Crawford boxes in Houston.  Remember that when you see a really poor number for a fielder on those fields.

These ratings do not include anything for “holds” or throwing runners out.  I do calculate those, but it is tricky – it’s hard to normalize for a play like that.

Left Field

It’s not easy to move beyond average without being a really good, or bad, fielder.  For the AL left field, there is just one good fielder above +7 DRS.  There are just three below –7 DRS.  And one is Manny Ramirez, who is twisted into a –30 DRS here, but we’ve seen other research indicate the Monster’s effect would lower that to about –17 DRS.  Hideki Matsui of the Yankees posted a –8 DRS.  The Cast Iron Skillet goes to Seattle’s Raul Ibanez at –23 DRS. 

In the National League, the NL puts their DHs in LF, so we can get some idea of what…

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The 2007 Calphalon Awards - Infielders

After seeing who the best fielders were, everyone wants to know who can’t field.  I mean who stands out in the field with skillets instead of gloves.  I am going to skip the part where I say Manny Ramirez was the worst fielder EVAR!1!11 because of the effects of the Green Monster.

So which players better hit a lot because they are playing with a frying pan for a glove?  Let the razzing begin, “Lewww- Zerrrrs!”

When these runs are referenced, they are based on the specific player’s playing time.  So a part time player that generates a negative defensive runs saved (DRS) mark may have generated a much worse mark, or come back toward average, with more playing time.  However, sample sizes matter, so players with 300 innings may score well or poorly, but that could mean a fortunate, or unfortunate, array of chances.

First Base

You’d think it would be difficult to bad that bad at first base – I mean, you have the fewest chances to screw up in a general fielding sense, and you have the biggest glove.  Somehow, these guys managed to play quite poorly.

In the American League, there were 79 men that played first…

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The 2007 NL Gold Glove Awards

These are the 2007 Gold Glove Awards as I see them.  Now, these are calculated as I laid out before, and reproducible by you.  There are several good defensive systems available now, and thanks to STATS and BIS, they produce data that seems to be pretty consistent, with the occasional stray value.  This year, we’ll take a look at other votes – the MLB Awards and John Dewan’s.

I have never come up with a satisfactory name for my defensive ratings.  Dan Szymborski suggested I name them for what they are – Linear Weights Zone Ratings – LWZR.  That appears to be pronounced Lew-zer.

So here are the LWZR Awards.  Run values (Defensive Runs Saved – DRS) are “compared to league average”, and are an approximate value – players within a handful of runs can be considered approximately equal.  Yes, that’s the same few paragraphs as the AL report.  I’m not as creative as some.

First Base

Albert Pujols came into the league as a third baseman, and he was pretty good.  He moved to the outfield, and he was pretty good.  He’s now moved to first base, where he is very good.  I don’t know if the Cardinals are maximizing…

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Is Jim Rice a Hall of Famer?

With all the HOF talk lately, I was wondering if Jim Rice might be a candidate.  Maybe you’ve seen some discussion on it – maybe not.  With next year being his last year of eligibility, I figure, what the heck, take a look.

I am a Small Hall of Fame person.  That means people have to be great to get in.  There is room, in my Hall, for achieving milestones, because milestones are only achievable through quality over time.  There are no peak-driven milestones.  I am also as guilty as the next BBWAA voter with regard to some level of “feel” in my Hall.  You have to.

I’m also something of a position stickler.  People like to lump the HOF outfielders together, and I don’t think they would lump the HOF infielders together.  The three OF positions are distinctive and teams look for different skills for each one.  Yes, left fielders and right fielders are close, but they are not the same.  Center fielders are clearly a different class.

So it’s pointless to look at the best HOF left fielders and pretend that Rice is in the class of Williams or Musial.  But is he in the class of the rest…

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The 2007 AL Gold Glove Awards

These are the 2007 Gold Glove Awards as I see them.  Now, these are calculated as I laid out before, and reproducible by you.  There are several good defensive systems available now, and thanks to STATS and BIS, they produce data that seems to be pretty consistent, with the occasional stray value.  This year, we’ll take a look at other votes – the MLB Awards and John Dewan’s.

I have never come up with a satisfactory name for my defensive ratings.  Dan Szymborski suggested I name them for what they are – Linear Weights Zone Ratings – LWZR.  That appears to be pronounced Lew-zer.

So here are the LWZR Awards.  Run values (Defensive Runs Saved – DRS) are “compared to league average”, and are an approximate value – players within a handful of runs can be considered approximately equal.

First Base

In the American League, with two-time incumbent Mark Teixeira over in the NL, there would be a new GG holder.  Well, I suppose Doug Meitkiewicz (2001) and Darin Erstad (2004) were still active and neither played very much first base.  I know, that didn’t stop Rafael Palmeiro in 1999.  Nonetheless…

The LWZR Gold Glover – Casey Kotchman.  Kotchman had 12…

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Defensive Analysis - Continuous Improvement

Retrosheet has become even more valuable?  Who would think that was possible?  They are also becoming faster, and Baseball Reference is also reaching new heights in capabilities and faster updates.  Coupled with Chone Smith’s skill-sets, I have managed to look at last year’s defensive ratings.

At the beginning of this past baseball season, Chone took a look at OCab’s defensive plays, and pondered the results.  Why didn’t OCab’s chances match up with what his Zone Rating, my personal favorite defensive system, claimed he made?  I have studied ZR for a long time.  I am certain that it had been defined as “ground balls into a player’s zone converted into outs, as a fraction”.  Chone’s analysis demonstrated this to not be true.  Line Drives (LD) caught appeared to be included.  It didn’t make sense to me – I had asked this question specifically of STATS before and was told that LDs were not included.  Really, though, the math was not making sense either way.

So I asked the inventor, John Dewan.  John truthfully answered, “I’m not sure.” Fair enough – the designer doesn’t always have all the controls over the actual inputs.  John now does (and designed) the work at BIS, and…

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Landing Buerhle a Great Move

The Buerhle Deal

Much has been written about the Buerhle deal – some good observations but some really odd stuff as well, particularly in attempting to select Buerhle’s peers.  I mean, selecting pitchers that posted a 4.50 ERA prior to 1993-94 is peculiar as a Buerhle peer.  Moreover, Mark has thrown 1500+ innings since he entered the major leagues, and he’s only 28 this season.  Looking at going forward, I want to select his peers – people who performed as Mark Buerhle has – not guys who didn’t perform as well as Mark Buerhle has in many fewer innings.  That’s not terribly interesting.

So what has Mark Buerhle done?  He’s thrown 1540 innings at an ERA+ of 123.  Since I am going to be pulling data from the past, and Mark is in good shape to finish this season with 200 innings, we’ll make selecting his peers as 1500 IP through age 28 season.  I also want to minimize era effects.  The strike zones of the 60s really ate many pitchers arms up – Jim Maloney, Drysdale, and there weren’t nearly the corrective practices that are in place since the 1970s, with pitch count restrictions, arm surgeries and Tommy John too.…

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My All-Stars

There are tons of ways to pick all-star teams.  I used to complain about some voters, but my wife has pointed out more than once that the All-Star Game is for the fans, so whomever one votes for is fine.  Nonetheless, I think it’s poor form to vote for everyone on your favorite team, particularly if that player is hitting under the Mendoza Line (coughAndruwcough).  But even when that happens, while it robs from deserving players, it won’t really threaten to “win” a slot.  The days of the Reds ballot box stuffing are over.

A good friend of mine, TheOtherHarris, does make the “all favorite team” vote.  My wife votes for ”best looking players”.  She also votes for ”player votes most likely to irritate my husband”.  Who’s to say’em no?  None of us.  I don’t mind if some numbskull wants to vote for Chris Duncan for the OF, as long as he recognizes he’s voting 100% fanboy.  100% fanboy for the ASG is perfectly acceptable.  The game is for you, vote for who you want to see play.

So given those things, here are my ballots for the past few weeks (about 75 votes, give or take an email address):

American…

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The New Home Run King

Who?

Barry Lamar Bonds. Yes, a year ago, we heard how he was done, and would be lucky to play another game.  He may not even catch Ruth, much less Hank Aaron. He went on to hit twenty-six home runs, and is within a half season, or so, of the Hammer.

What?

The all time career home run record. Yes, the most treasured mark in the history of sports.  Nothing compares to this mark.  Well, perhaps the single season home run mark, and Bonds did what Aaron never could - set that mark.  And with seventy-three in 2001, he may have pushed the mark out where it won’t be approached for the time gaps that made it so treasured.  Ruth held the mark at 60 from 1927 to 1961 - 34 years.  Roger Maris broke that mark under tremendous pressure in 1961, and held the mark for 37 years.  Mark McGwire hit 70 in 1998, and held it for just three seasons.  Can Bonds hold the mark for thirty plus seasons or is a younger slugger like Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Howard going to climb over that mark? 

When?

Isn’t this what everyone wants to know?  The tickets for Giants’ games…

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2006 National League Gold Gloves - As I see it

Defensive data has been and is being refined pretty well these days.  With more and more play-by-play data making it to the mainstream, all of us are stretching the boundaries of what we require from black-box analysts.  With the exception of some park factors, we are discovering that Zone Rating provides a pretty good picture of defense.  Taking the zone rating and accounting for league averages, based on tens of thousands of defensive innings played, we can closely assess the number of runs saved by a defensive players as compared to his peers.

To be sure, even this data could be refined to account for parks better - Fenway’s Green Monster is a tremendous issue - and handedness of batters - NOT handedness of pitchers - to tune the picture a bit better, but the data you will read will be very close to any refined data.  Very close.  The basic methodology for this work is here. You can also read more on where we are headed with Park Factors by reading Rally’s latest work.

I have tweaked this for chances per inning from the original data, so the chances assumed here may be slightly higher/lower, but if you did the…

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2006 American League Gold Glove Winners - As I see it

Defensive data has been and is being refined pretty well these days. With more and more play-by-play data making it to the mainstream, all of us are stretching the boundaries of what we require from black-box analysts. With the exception of some park factors, we are discovering that Zone Rating provides a pretty good picture of defense. Taking the zone rating and accounting for league averages, based on tens of thousands of defensive innings played, we can closely assess the number of runs saved by a defensive players as compared to his peers.

To be sure, even this data could be refined to account for parks better - Fenway's Green Monster is a tremendous issue - and handedness of batters - NOT handedness of pitchers - to tune the picture a bit better, but the data you will read will be very close to any refined data. Very close. The basic methodology for this work is here.

I have tweaked this for chances per inning from the original data, so the chances assumed here may be slightly higher/lower, but if you did the same work from the referenced article, you'd find your results would be within a run or two of…

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Defense Over the Last Twenty Years - Part Five: AL Outfield

Top Career Defensive Performances – American League Outfield

The American League outfield leaders are full of people I wouldn’t have thought of.  There are a few players I do think of, but many others I wouldn’t have named.  It isn’t that they aren’t good fielders, but there simply are very few outstanding fielders in the OF for the AL over the last 20 years.

Left Field

Left Field saw a lot of players rotating through the position and had very few “career” left fielders over the period.  Over two thousand players logged innings in left field - that’s 100 a season for the 14 teams.  It’s obviously an offensive position.

The leader over the last two decades was Garret Anderson.  He has played a lot and played well.  He’s good enough to spend time at right field and center.  He’s not great, and it shows with a mediocre, but above average, RS/150.  Anderson is much better in left than the other slots.

YEAR	POS	NAME	LAST	TEAM	LG	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
1994	LF	Garret	Anderson	Cal	AL	4	28.0	0	10
1995	LF	Garret	Anderson	Cal	AL	99	815.7	2	4
1996	LF	Garret	Anderson	Cal	AL	140	1247.3	10…

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Defensive Rankings by Position- NL - Aug 27

NL Defense through August 27

The following data represent the defensive rankings for the American League players by position, with a minimum of 500 innings played. RSpt is Runs Saved for the playing time of the player above average for that much playing time. RS/150 is how many runs that would be in 150 games played. This is explained in the methodology here.

Catcher

Pos	NAME	LAST	TEAM	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
2	Yadier	Molina,	StL	98	831.7	5	8
2	Miguel	Olivo,	Fla	97	752.0	5	8
2	Yorvit	Torrealba,	Col	57	480.3	4	10
2	Ronny	Paulino,	Pit	101	841.0	3	5
2	Johnny	Estrada,	Ari	94	799.3	3	5
2	Jason	LaRue,	Cin	54	450.3	3	8
2	Damian	Miller,	Mil	87	748.3	2	4
2	David	Ross,	Cin	55	455.3	2	6
2	Brian	Schneider,	Was	98	798.3	1	2
2	Russell	Martin,	LA	87	760.3	1	2
2	Eliezer	Alfonzo,	SF	60	509.0	0	1
2	Brad	Ausmus,	Hou	109	893.0	-1	-1
2	Brian	McCann,	Atl	93	767.0	-1	-2
2	Paul	LoDuca	NYM	94	826.3	-4	-7
2	Michael	Barrett,	ChC	96	803.3	-7	-11
2	Mike	Piazza,	SD	77	560.0	-11	-28

Piazza…

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Defensive Rankings by Position- AL - Aug 27

AL Defense through August 27

The following data represent the defensive rankings for the American League players by position, with a minimum of 500 innings played. RSpt is Runs Saved for the playing time of the player above average for that much playing time. RS/150 is how many runs that would be in 150 games played. This is explained in the methodology here.

Catcher

Pos	NAME	LAST	TEAM	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
2	Ivan	Rodrig'z	Det	94	811.3	8	13
2	Ramon	Hern'ndz	Bal	111	905.3	5	7
2	Jose	Molina	LAA	60	492.0	3	9
2	Joe	Mauer	Min	97	858.7	3	5
2	Jorge	Posada	NYY	109	852.3	3	4
2	Jason	Kendall	Oak	110	984.3	2	3
2	John	Buck	KC	94	783.0	2	4
2	Rod	Barajas	Tex	87	758.7	2	4
2	Kenji	Johjima	Sea	117	928.0	0	1
2	Mike	Napoli	LAA	75	569.3	0	0
2	Jason	Varitek	Bos	82	687.3	-1	-2
2	Toby	Hall	TB	61	494.0	-1	-3
2	A.J.	P'rzynski	CWS	106	906.3	-5	-8
2	Bengie	Molina	Tor	81	690.3	-6	-12
2	Victor	Martinez	Cle	105	879.3	-7	-11

Wow, Ivan Rodriguez is the best defensive catcher in…

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Defense Over the Last Twenty Years - Part Four, AL Infield

Top Career Defensive Performances – American League Infield

Unlike the National League, the American League defensive stars aren’t full of surprises.  There is a good chance you could list the top three at each position.  These players were recognized for being good fielders during their playing days.  However, the AL has some outstanding performances – easily matching their NL counterparts.

That does sound odd, considering the NL had Ozzie Smith.  Oh, the AL have their own brilliant defensive players.

First Base

At first base there are several players considered to be very good.  Then there is one who wasn’t nearly as good of a hitter as people thought, but he got a handful of rings anyway.

The runner-up at first base for great defense was Tino Martinez.  The Yankees may have known what they were doing with Martinez, and he rewarded them.

YEAR	POS	NAME	LAST	TEAM	LG	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
1990	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	23	163.0	0	-2
1991	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	29	236.3	-1	-4
1992	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	78	664.7	6	11
1993	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	103	910.7	6	9
1994	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	82	700.7	2…

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Defense over the last Twenty Years - Part Three, NL OF

Top Career Defensive Performances – National League Outfield

After reviewing the infield defense of the National League, I thought I had a good handle on how the outfield would turn out. I didn’t. The oddest thing is how few players really spent a career in centerfield in the National League. Accumulating 5000 innings was rare. I was also surprised at how much closer in talent the centerfielders were. Please note, these ratings do not include OF assists.

Center Field

The favorite centerfielder of the last decade is Andruw Jones. In Bill James’ Win Shares, he was anointing Jones as the greatest defensive CF of all time. I have been a naysayer most of Andruw’s career with respect to his god-like qualities. So does Andruw come up as the best CF over the last 20 years? If I had written a book in 2003, he would have. His decline the last three seasons has been significant. He has fallen from the highest mark to the middle of the pack.

YEAR	POS	NAME	TEAM	LG	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
1996	CF	Andruw Jones	Atl	NL	12	71.0	0	0
1997	CF	Andruw Jones	Atl	NL	57	415.3	3	10
1998	CF	Andruw Jones…

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Defense over the last Twenty Years - Part TwoTop Career Performances by Position – NL

Top Career Performances by Position – National League Infield

There have been a lot of players over the last twenty seasons in MLB. Twenty years covers entire careers for even the greatest players. We’re going to take a look at who the top career performers have been. Some players haven’t gotten to the decline phase of their careers, but many players have come and gone.

Some players have played multiple positions, and we’ll cover there entire career sooner or later, but usually if you only play a few innings at a given position, you cannot play it so poorly or so well as to affect your career value.

Years of watching baseball would probably allow you to guess at who the top fielders at a given position. The top fielders get good press and there is usually some accuracy to it. So who are the best fielders at first? JT Snow? Jeff Bagwell? Second? Ryno? Third? Caminiti? Shortstop? Okay, we know number one, but who was second? Rey Ordonez?

First Base

At first base, there have been a number of good fielders. Most first basemen careers end up with 10 runs of average. Even some of the guys expected to be…Read More ...

Defense over the last Twenty Years

After finally getting my defensive analysis work in a more simplified form and setting it up smoothly for everyone to use, we began to discuss the possibility of re-working all the players for whom Zone Rating (ZR) was available.  Trying to go to a website and cut and paste twenty years of data was simply too daunting of a task. 

A book came out a while back called Baseball Hacks.  In it, there were descriptions of how to retrieve information from the series of tubes called the internets.  It can pull data, in an efficient fashion.  That’s not really that difficult.  I know many programmers that have always done this with just a few hours of writing code.  I couldn’t find the book, but someone read it and figured it wasn’t going to be too difficult.

A couple of weeks ago, Primate SG in ATL sent RallyMonkey and me all the data from 1987 through 2005.  Completely out of the blue.  His contribution is going to allow us to look at defensive runs by season, career, career-progression for players, improvement and decline, greatest seasons, worst seasons and more.

There were a few gaps, but after going through the data a few…

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I Don’t Believe What I just Saw

Da Bulls

I went to the Durham Bulls game Saturday night with Red and ACE.  We have the season ticket mini plan.  One reason I purchased this particular plan is that the Bulls give away pretty good “gifts” during certain games.

We hadn’t picked up any of them before Saturday, so we showed our ticket to the young lady, and we were given three nice white old timey Bulls hats - with a bull on the front, like a 1908 Cubs hat, and an inconspicuous sponsor logo on the back just above the velcro fastener.  Anybody want one?  One size fits all (almost).  We were told paperweights would be available in the fifth or sixth inning, but we didn’t pick up one of those yet.  The piece de resistance was a replica player batting practice jersey.  I hoped to get an Upton (wink), but had to settle for three Jonny Gomes.  Anybody want one?  It’s an XL.

On this night the Bulls were hosting the Rochester Red Wings, the AAA affiliate of the Minnesota Twins.  The Red Wings have the best record in the North Division of the International League.  The Bulls are well back of the Charlotte Knights in the…

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Defensive Rankings by Position- American League

The following data represent the defensive rankings for the American League players by position, with a minimum of 200 innings played. RSpt is Runs Saved for the playing time of the player above average for that much playing time. RS/150 is how many runs that would be in 150 games played. This is explained in the methodology here.

Catchers

Pos	First	Last	        Team	GP	GS	INN	RSpt	RS/150
2	Ramon	Hernandez	BAL	77	74	638.3	5	11
2	Ivan	Rodriguez	DET	65	64	563.3	5	12
2	Gerald	Laird      	TEX	31	26	236.3	4	23
2	Joe	Mauer   	MIN	65	64	568.7	3	6
2	Jason	Kendall 	OAK	72	72	647.3	2	5
2	Jose	Molina  	LAA	41	40	337.0	2	9
2	Kenji	Johjima 	SEA	81	74	659.7	2	5
2	Jorge	Posada  	NYY	72	64	563.7	1	3
2	Vance	Wilson  	DET	29	24	227.7	1	7
2	Rod	Barajas 	TEX	62	62	540.7	1	3
2	John	Buck    	KCR	63	60	519.3	0	1
2	Mike	Napoli  	LAA	45	37	349.7	0	0
2	Paul	Bako   	        KCR	33	27	237.3	0	0
2	Gregg	Zaun            TOR	36	30	276.7	0	0
2	Jason	Varitek 	BOS	68	64	569.3…

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Defensive Rankings by Position- National League

The following data represent the defensive rankings for the National League players by position, with a minimum of 200 innings played. RSpt is Runs Saved for the playing time of the player above average for that much playing time. RS/150 is how many runs that would be in 150 games played. This is explained in the methodology here.

Catchers

Pos	NAME	Last	        Team	GP	GS	INN	RSpt	RS/150
2	Yadier	Molina       	StL	68	66	584.7	4	10
2	Jason	LaRue      	Cin	35	34	304.3	3	14
2	Matt	Treanor 	Fla	38	32	284.7	3	13
2	Johnny	Estrada 	Ari	66	62	554.3	3	7
2	Henry	Blanco       	ChC	32	28	247.7	2	13
2	Miguel	Olivo   	Fla	61	52	461.3	2	7
2	Brian	McCann  	Atl	60	55	486.0	2	6
2	Ronny	Paulino 	Pit	65	61	548.0	2	5
2	Damian	Miller  	Mil	64	64	555.7	2	4
2	Chris	Snyder  	Ari	28	26	230.3	1	9
2	Mike	Matheny	        SF	46	44	391.3	1	5
2	David	Ross    	Cin	36	35	299.3	1	5
2	Russell	Martin  	LA	52	52	456.7	1	3 
2	Ramon	Castro  	NYM	30	26	248.3	1	4
2	Josh	Bard    	SD	35	24	243.7…

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Individual Leaders at the All-Star Break - National League

Halfway Home

We have reached the All-Star Break, and everyone wants to know how everyone is doing.

What follows will be various rankings with minimal explanation – so you can have the data without my jabbering on and on about my opinion which you really aren’t that interested in.

The ratings are all based on playing time, park-adjusted, position-adjusted above average, and within league only, although the stats include interleague games.

I use Extrapolated Runs for offense (XR), and it is a routinely calculated “Runs above average at position” that you see with so many other statistics, and my calculations for Defensive Runs Saved (RS) using ZR as the basis.  Explanations for the defensive methodology can be found here.  “pt” stands for “playing time”.

Yes, you’ve read all that before.

First here are the Overall NL Defensive Leaders:

Pos	NAME	Last	        Team	INN	RSpt	RS/150
SS	Adam	Everett 	HOU	685.0	15	30
LF	Ryan	Langerhans	ATL	474.7	11	30
CF	Juan	Pierre   	CHC	767.7	10	17
OF	Endy	Chavez  	NYM	401.3	9	32
3B	Corey	Koskie  	MIL	603.3	8	18
3B	Pedro	Feliz   	SFG	787.3	8	13
RF	Brian	Giles   	SDP	786.7	7	11
CF	Carlos	Beltran 	NYM	657.3	7	14…

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Individual Leaders at the All-Star Break - American League

Halfway Home

We have reached the All-Star Break, and everyone wants to know how everyone is doing.

What follows will be various rankings with minimal explanation – so you can have the data without my jabbering on and on about my opinion which you really aren’t that interested in.

The ratings are all based on playing time, park-adjusted, position-adjusted above average, and within league only, although the stats include interleague games.

I use Extrapolated Runs for offense (XR), and it is a routinely calculated "Runs above average at position" that you see with so many other statistics, and my calculations for Defensive Runs Saved (RS) using ZR as the basis. Explanations for the defensive methodology can be found here. “pt” stands for “playing time”.

First here are the Overall AL Defensive Leaders:

Pos	First	Last	       Team	GP	GS	INN	RSpt	RS/150
3B	Mike	Lowell 	        BOS	83	80	700.0	16	31
2B	Placido	Polanco 	DET	74	73	652.0	12	25
1B	Chris	Shelton  	DET	86	82	737.0	12	21
3B	Brandon	Inge	        DET	85	83	749.0	10	18
SS	Juan	Uribe    	CHW	75	70	632.0	10	21
2B	Mark	Grudz'ek	KCR	77	77	648.7	9	18
2B	Brian	Roberts 	BAL	68	67…

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Greatness - How do we calculate it?

What is the greatest seasonal pitching performance ever?  Bob Gibson in 1968?  Pedro in 1999?  Gooden in 1985?  Koufax in 1966?

How do we determine it?  I have been thinking about this for nigh a decade and haven’t really gotten around to solving the question.  Many of you reading this will say “Who cares?” or “Which pitcher had the most runs above replacement?” Or something.

I’m not looking for “most value”, I am looking for “Greatness”.  Not very clear, I know.  That’s why I have been stuck on this question for a decade.

I took a diversity training class at work last week.  I know, big groan.  However, this training was about “Inclusion.” It’s great to have a diverse population, but if you really aren’t using the varied people, does it really matter?  That’s what Inclusion is all about.  So, here at BTF we have the best sabermetric minds around: math, stats, theory, creativity.  I want to take what I think and see if we can expand it into something.

What is Greatness?
Greatness to me is the performance that pushes the boundaries of human capabilities.  It’s 73 home runs. It’s hitting 0.424.  It’s striking out 383 hitters. It’s 257 262…

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Meet me in Miami

I’ll be visiting my brother in Miami from March 2-11, and possibly taking in a ST game.  I expect to visit the Keys (West, in particular).

Anyone want to get together?  Buehler?  Buehler?

Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Zone Rating

There is a ton of mistrust of defensive methodologies, and how well they describe defensive play. MGL’s UZR is recognized at many baseball sites as being good enough to cite with considerable confidence in its accuracy. MGL does a good deal of work on it to perfect it, and he’s no dummy, so it’s a fair position of others to want to quote his data.

I’m here to tell you, friends and neighbors, that you, yes, you, can be a defensive runs saved calculator without the need to pray MGL is able to let you in on how your favorite player performed. MGL always obliges, but he doesn't have to have the burden.

You will have to do some of the work, so stop watching that baseball game and get your head into a spreadsheet.

Here’s what you are going to need:

1.	The player’s name and defensive innings 
played at position.

2.	The average number of innings a team 
played in a season.  Usually, it is about 1440, 
depending on extra inning games, etc.  In 2005, 
the average AL team had 1441.0.

3.	Obtain the league average ZR at position.  
This can be done by “back calculating” from every 
other…

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What is Zone Rating?

What is Zone Rating?

Basically, ZR is the percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive ‘zone’, as measured by STATS reporters.

The first part of understanding Zone Rating is understanding how the field is divided up.

The field is divided into 22 equal ‘slices’.  Each slice runs from home plate to the outfield fence.  The first slice running along the left field line is Zone ‘C’.  (Zones A, B, Y and Z are in foul territory).  The last zone is Zone ‘X’. Like any ‘pie’ slice, or wedge, gets wider as you approach the outfield wall.  Zone C is about 7 feet wide at the third base bag, and about 20 feet wide at 300 feet from home plate.
The next 21 zones (D - X) divide the field equally until you get to the right field line.  The dividing line between zones M and N runs right over second base, splitting the field in half.

STATS ZR zone grid

With this division of the field understood, ZR becomes much easier to visualize.

For infielders, only ground balls are considered for zone rating.  Line drives, pop-ups and fly balls are not included.  This serves to, oh so…

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