The Importance of Being Baseball

Nothing says “Baseball” like cucumber sandwiches and bottles of champagne.  I love baseball, and it is definitely a central feature in my life.  I can recall tucking my little girl in at night and whispering, “I love you more than anything”, to have her whisper back, “More than the Mets?” Ah, from the mouths of babes. 

Of course not more than the Mets – I’ve had the Mets for forty years and her for seven.  She’s a terrific kid, and given time, maybe the same twenty-seven years, she could do something as fantastic as the 1986 World Series Game Six. I’m not holding my breath though.  She’s lucky her name isn’t Mookie.

Baseball has always been central to my life – baseball cards, Little League, rolly-bat and 500.  Having a catch with my Dad and brother in the backyard where I learned to catch a wicked curveball with my Frank Howard model glove.  I remember playing the role of Carlos Beltran in the championship game in Little League, as Woody Mabry, in the Adam Wainwright role, threw a pitch past me.  I swear it was low.  He and I still argue about it today.  Since he won, he’s kind enough to…

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Defensive Replacement Level Defined

Okay, this is a “look what I found” post, so I’m not drawing conclusions, but looking at data and saying, “What does this mean?” in hopes that the peer-review world of sabermetrics can take this type of information and run with it.  One of keys to more advancement is open-source, which enables others, like Joe Arthur, Sean Smith, Colin Wyers, who are better at database work than I am, to see where they can take the information. 

At any rate, a few years ago, when I was doing the 20-years worth of analysis (thanks again SG!!), Sean and Mike and I were discussing the limits of what a team would put on the field.  I said at the time that could be valuable information, but I never really did anything about it.  Then the other night in a discussion with Colin, I popped in the spreadsheet and did a few pivot tables, and something jumped out at me - defensive replacement level is similar to offensive replacement level.  Yes, that is the conclusion, and it came first in this piece, so you don’t have to read all the drivel. 

The old discussion essentially said “Is there a floor where a player…

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Final 2008 Offense Plus Defense (OPD) Results

With the ALCS wrapped (Congratulations all you former Durham Bulls!), and three days off until the World Series starts, I thought I’d get the end-of-year results for offense and defense posted.  It will enhance your “Who should be MVP?” debates.  It will contain the best fielders and best hitters, so you can work out your Gold Glove and Silver Slugger pools.  People can even pay off on their bets where “Who is better?” came up.  Most importantly for all the fans of teams who are eliminated, you can look at players about to be free agents and decide who you want to sign.  Sure, he can hit, but can he field?  Is $10 million too much for a player going to provide you one win above average?
Final 2008 OPD Spreadsheet

The runs are rated above average at position.  The offense is XR, park-adjusted, and specific to the number of outs a player has used up.  Baseball-Reference tweaked their league batting pages to provide all the necessary categories in one place to calculate Extrapolated Runs, so this will be much easier than in years past to generate.  Thanks, Sean!  The defense is DRS (Defensive Runs Saved: ZR converted to runs), explained…

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AL MVP Race - Offense Plus Defense (OPD) - Through Sept 02, 2008

Carlos Quentin? Dustin Pedrioia? Alex Rodriguez?  Who is the best candidate for the AL MVP?  Has Pedroia’s recent hot streak and media hype lifted him to a top five candidate?  He’s certainly played well enough to be the best player on his team.  Or has he?

What follows is a discussion of the AL OPD (offense plus defense) leaders and who should be headed for the MVP.  Sometimes the month of September can be enough to move players in this ranking when they are tightly bunched.  So, while these are the leaders, the rankings are not cemented. 

The runs are rated above average at position.  The offense is XR, park-adjusted, and specific to the number of outs a player has used up.  The defense is DRS (Defensive Runs Saved: ZR converted to runs), explained in my previous work.  It is runs, not plays, above average. The units are the same, so I simply add the numbers together.  The decimal places are for consistency’s sake, not meant to represent accuracy.  There are several runs of give in these (and any) numbers, offense or defense. 

In this data, the catcher defense is properly calculated, including all passed ball, stolen base data, as well…

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Offense Plus Defense (OPD) - NL Through Sept 02, 2008

Oh, goodness.  The races are tightening up and the MVP talks are starting to percolate.  Yes, kids, the New York Yankees will not be participating in the post-season for the first time in well over a decade - but I think their post-season run falls short of the Braves (although the Braves was interrupted in 1994, so they didn’t win the division that year).  The Yankees place was taken by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  What a great country! 

What follows is a discussion of the NL OPD (offense plus defense) leaders and who should be headed for the MVP.  Sometimes the month of September can be enough to move players in this ranking when they are tightly bunched.  So, while these are the leaders, the rankings are not cemented. 

The runs are rated above average at position.  The offense is XR, park-adjusted, and specific to the number of outs a player has used up.  The defense is DRS (Defensive Runs Saved: ZR converted to runs), explained in my previous work.  It is runs, not plays, above average. The units are the same, so I simply add the numbers together.  The decimal places are for consistency’s sake, not meant to represent…

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AL Defensive Stats through August 7

We have looked at the National League defense to date, and here is the American League defense.  I did learn from the NL data that posting defensive stats without a link to the basis of the calculations is a mistake.  So the methodology is located here.  Many people mix the leagues, but I prefer to keep them apart as chances can very since you face pitchers versus DHs.

Here is the entire spreadsheet, and then a few comments about each position.  Please remember that the pitcher and catchers data isn’t reflective of mch of anything as there are very few chances and nearly every play is made.  Also recall that for players with a small number of chances, each misplay makes a larger difference, just like in offensive stats, sample size is a factor.

First Base: Daric Barton (+6) and Lyle Overbay (+6) are in a dead heat.  Overbay has lots more innings.  Richie Sexson (-9) has been just awful.  He’s just not fielding at all, and was bad in Seattle and has been worse for the Yankees.  You might as well just leave Giambi out there.

Second Base:Once again, the A’s Mark Ellis (+14) is the best 2B in the…

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NL Defensive Stats to date

Sure, everyone can go to BPro everyday and check out Albert Pujols’ VORP.  Or whatever your favorite site is and its Offensive Stat du jour.Well, if you really want to know how good a player is/has been you need to add his defense to that.  Is Manny going to be okay in Chavez Ravine?  Does David Wright deserve a second Gold Glove?  What you need though is a regularly updated place where you can see how a player is doing the moment you are having that argument or writing that blog piece.  Well, friends and neighbors, thanks to several other Primates (SG, AROM, MCoA), I got off my duff and made a more updatable and publishable format.  I also learned how to more efficiently use Excel to I could vlookup stuff and greatly cut down on the time it takes me.  Coupled with learning from MCoA’s use of Google docs, I can post them without making a giant mess of this page. 

So, like the All-Star Break data, I will post the data via a Google docs.  If someone can help me locate a good offensive stat format that includes all the pertinent data for my offensive calculations, I can update…

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National League Leaders at the All Star Break (Offense Plus Defense)

The NL has some wonderful performances so far.  Chipper Jones flirted with .400 for a couple of months, and Dan “Please don’t hit it to me” Uggla has had a great season.  How does the league line up - and who is in the driver’s seat for the MVP?

The data here is “runs against average”.  The offense is calculated using Extrapolated Runs, but the number I have will approximate any run formula - RC, LW, EQR.  The Defense is converting Zone Rating to runs (as you can read about here).  The run values are very close to MGL’s UZR (usually).  The definition of “Position” is the innings at which a player has played the most.  Yes, Cristian Guzman played third base in the All-Star Game, but here he’s a shortstop.

First Base

Player	First	Team	pos	g	ab	Xra+AA	Inn	DRS	OPD
berkman	lance	HOU	1B	93	334	37.7	751.7	6.5	44.2
pujols	albert	STL	1B	82	286	35.3	660.7	8.9	44.1
teix'ra	mark	ATL	1B	93	347	4.2	814.7	9.6	13.9
gonzalz	adrian	SDP	1B	95	370	4.3	844.7	4.9	9.2
howard	ryan	PHI	1B	96	364	-2.9	822.0	6.0	3.1
lee	derrek	CHC	1B	94	382	0.3	807.7…

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American League Leaders at the All-Star Break (Offense Plus Defense)

With the season at a break, we can get a snapshot of where players are performing thusfar, and see how they are helping, or hurting their team.  the data here is “runs against average”.  The offense is calculated using Extrapolated Runs, but the number I have will approximate any run formula - RC, LW, EQR.  The Defense is converting Zone Rating to runs (as you can read about here).  The run values are very close to MGL’s UZR (usually).  the definition of “Position” is the innings at which a player has played the most.  Yes, Ichiro is back playing RF, but he’s played the most in CF, and thus that is where he “counts” at the mid-point of the season.

First Base

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Take Me Out to the Ball Game

Holy cow!  For those of you not paying attention, the Tampa Bay Devi, er, Rays are in first place with a solid lead in July.  They finished last (or so) for a decade (or so) and horded talent, and now they have a good young team.  It helps to rip off the Mets in the newest version of the “Worst Trade Ever”.  I live near Durham, NC.  The Durham Bulls are the AAA affiliate of the Rays.  Just flipping through my scorebook, I have names like Crawford, Winn, Longoria, Upton, Dukes, Young, Cantu, Hall, Gomes, Riggans, Huff, Truby.  That’s all well and good, and for the last decade, the Bulls have been about a movie.  They were every bit as entertaining as the Rays.  This season, all that has changed.  I went to the game last night (01 July 2008) against the Charlotte Knights, and the place was crowded.  Okay, there were fireworks after the game, but the good seats were nearly full. 

What really changed was last night I saw something new - not Bulls shirts, but Rays shirts.  Lots of them.  The Durham Bull shirt and symbol is one of quality, and the movie makes it cool to wear,…

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2007 NL OPD (Offense Plus Defense)

What follows is a list of "total player run contribution" for the entire 2007 NL. For defense, it has Defensive Runs Saved at each position a player played, and his total. For offense, it has his Plate Appearances, his Outs Made, and his Extrapolated Runs Above Average at his primary position, park adjusted. These are not adjusted to "162 games", but for the player's actual playing time.

Name              TEAM      1B      2B      3B       C      CF      LF      RF      SS Grand Tot    PA   Outs Xrp+AA    OPD
Utley,Chase       Phi      -0.9    21.4                                                     20.4    612    369   43.1   63.5
Wright,David      NYM                       0.9                                              0.9    711    428   52.1   53.1
Jones,Chipper     Atl                       7.1                                     0.3      7.5    600    365   45.1   52.6
Pujols,Albert     StL      12.1                                                             12.1    679    414   32.4   44.6
Beltran,Carlos    NYM                                      11.1                             11.1    636    420   33.0   44.1
Martin,Russell    LA                                6.2                                      6.2    619    404   31.7   37.9
Holliday,Matt     Col                                              13.2                     13.2    713    447   24.6   37.8
Ramirez,Hanley    Fla                                                             -16.4    -16.4    706    445   53.7   37.3
Reyes,Jose        NYM                                                              14.4     14.4    765    502   18.1   32.4
Fielder,Prince    Mil      -7.7                                                             -7.7    681    421   38.3   30.6
Bonds,Barry       SF                                               -9.2                     -9.2    477    261   38.3   29.2
Helton,Todd       Col      10.4                                                             10.4    682    401   17.2   27.6
Rowand,Aaron      Phi                                       5.1                              5.1    683    447   20.4   25.5
Cabrera,Miguel    Fla                     -18.7                                            -18.7    680    424   44.2   25.4
Rollins,Jimmy     Phi                                                              -2.1     -2.1…

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2007 AL OPD (Offense Plus Defense)

What follows is a list of "total player run contribution" for the entire 2007 AL. For defense, it has Defensive Runs Saved at each position a player played, and his total. For offense, it has his Plate Appearances, his Outs Made, and his Extrapolated Runs Above Average at his primary position, park adjusted. These are not adjusted to "162 games", but for the player's actual playing time.

Name             Team  pos    1B     2B     3B      C     CF     LF     RF     SS Grand Tot      PA     Outs   Xra+AA      OPD
Rodriguez,Alex   NYY   3B                  -0.6                                        -0.6      707      424     74.5     73.9
Ordonez,Magglio  Det   RF                                              10.8            10.8      678      403     49.4     60.2
Ortiz,David      Bos   1B     0.0                                                       0.0      667      385     49.6     49.6
Posada,Jorge     NYY   C     -0.7                 -3.3                                 -4.0      589      356     49.8     45.9
Pena,Carlos      TB    1B    -5.4                                                      -5.4      612      368     51.2     45.8
Sizemore,Grady   Cle   CF                                12.1                          12.1      748      459     30.8     42.9
Granderson,CurtisDet   CF                                 8.2   -0.1                    8.1      676      437     34.5     42.6
Martinez,Victor  Cle   C     -0.6                  4.4                                  3.9      645      423     36.2     40.0
Crawford,Carl    TB    LF                                       17.6                   17.6      624      415     21.1     38.7
Ellis,Mark       Oak   2B           23.7                                               23.7      642      437     13.0     36.7
Guerrero,VladimirLAA   RF                                               4.4             4.4      660      413     28.8     33.2
Polanco,Placido  Det   2B            2.5                                                2.5      641      402     29.3     31.7
Mauer,Joe        Min   C                           9.4                                  9.4      471      301     20.4…

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The 2007 National League MVP

I read lots of articles about who should be the MVP.  Albert Pujols, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday – and Jimmy Rollins won.  What I don’t see is an itemized offense plus defense (OPD) analysis to say “this guy should have won the MVP”.  Naturally, if the OPD is terrifically close between some players, we’ll tweak it toward something like better Win Probability Added (WPA), a tougher defensive position, or a player on my favorite team.  Whatever seems fairest.

Jimmy Rollins won the MVP, and as a Mets fan, I was naturally irritated.  Last year Ryan Howard won the award when Carlos Beltran deserved it, and I wasn’t too keen on a second straight year of a Phil taking a Mets player’s rightful award.  So did a Met player rightfully deserve the 2007 NL MVP?  There are a bunch of articles declaring that David Wright should have won the award.  Perhaps a couple of Mets would steal votes from one another to keep either from winning.

Let’s take a look at what Jimmy Rollins did.  Rollins played a tough defensive position and he hit a bunch of home runs (in a park with little league fences).  He had…

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Threatening the Owners

It takes a lot to threaten MLB owners.  Marvin Miller did it.  Don Fehr has done it.  You argue from a position of bettering the work environment, and a strike ensues.  The threat has to be credible, and at first, few take it seriously.  Only when it hurts do people see it means business, and sometimes even then stubbornness ignores the threat.

This morning at about 1 AM, FOX Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal threatened the owners.  Rosenthal threatened the owners that if one were to dare sign Barry Bonds, there would be repercussions.  Rosenthal pretends to open his ultimatum with an observation of rights, as many people do - hey, do what you want, that’s your right, but if you do…

I can appreciate people being unhappy that many, many baseball players have taken performance-enhancing drugs over the last fifty years.  I can certainly understand that many want the “Steroids Era” to go away.  But Bonds isn’t the only one.  Rosenthal writes that Bonds “represents” the cancer that is PEDs.  I wonder why that is, Ken?  Could it be that you, and your brethren, pursue and villify Bonds more vociferously?  Why isn’t Andy Pettitte representing the cancer?  For that matter, why…

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2007 Team Defense

There is no “team” offense.  Yes, there are bunts and hit-and-runs, but that’s a small part of offense.  There are mostly individual acts of hitting, representing upwards of 95% of a player’s offensive contributions.  You very rarely hear that a team plays good team offense.  You will see cumulative team stats, but most analysts have no problem reading a team line as the sum of its parts.

Sadly that type of understanding isn’t true about defense.  There is very little “team” in defense. Yes, there are double plays and proper relays, but that’s a small part of defense.  There are mostly individual acts of fielding that represent upwards of 95% of a player’s defensive contributions.  We’re going to set aside the pitcher’s component of a batted ball, and the ease with which it is turned into outs.  That’s a separate piece.

So which teams performed best defensively, and how much they could improve, or where they are giving away runs.

Here’s a look at the 2007 American League.

Team	1B DRS	2B DRS	3B DRS	SS DRS	LF DRS	CF DRS	RF DRS	C DRS	DRS SUM
TOR	0	12	-13	27	12	8	0	-12	35
BAL	-4	-1	0…

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The 2007 Calphalon Awards – Outfielders

The outfield always has some real doozies for defensive numbers.  The Green Monster epitomizes a park effect for outfielder defensive ratings.  However, any park with a high wall will affect outfielder ratings.  This will include the Marlins left field, the Baltimore right field and the Crawford boxes in Houston.  Remember that when you see a really poor number for a fielder on those fields.

These ratings do not include anything for “holds” or throwing runners out.  I do calculate those, but it is tricky – it’s hard to normalize for a play like that.

Left Field

It’s not easy to move beyond average without being a really good, or bad, fielder.  For the AL left field, there is just one good fielder above +7 DRS.  There are just three below –7 DRS.  And one is Manny Ramirez, who is twisted into a –30 DRS here, but we’ve seen other research indicate the Monster’s effect would lower that to about –17 DRS.  Hideki Matsui of the Yankees posted a –8 DRS.  The Cast Iron Skillet goes to Seattle’s Raul Ibanez at –23 DRS. 

In the National League, the NL puts their DHs in LF, so we can get some idea of what…

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The 2007 Calphalon Awards - Infielders

After seeing who the best fielders were, everyone wants to know who can’t field.  I mean who stands out in the field with skillets instead of gloves.  I am going to skip the part where I say Manny Ramirez was the worst fielder EVAR!1!11 because of the effects of the Green Monster.

So which players better hit a lot because they are playing with a frying pan for a glove?  Let the razzing begin, “Lewww- Zerrrrs!”

When these runs are referenced, they are based on the specific player’s playing time.  So a part time player that generates a negative defensive runs saved (DRS) mark may have generated a much worse mark, or come back toward average, with more playing time.  However, sample sizes matter, so players with 300 innings may score well or poorly, but that could mean a fortunate, or unfortunate, array of chances.

First Base

You’d think it would be difficult to bad that bad at first base – I mean, you have the fewest chances to screw up in a general fielding sense, and you have the biggest glove.  Somehow, these guys managed to play quite poorly.

In the American League, there were 79 men that played first…

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The 2007 NL Gold Glove Awards

These are the 2007 Gold Glove Awards as I see them.  Now, these are calculated as I laid out before, and reproducible by you.  There are several good defensive systems available now, and thanks to STATS and BIS, they produce data that seems to be pretty consistent, with the occasional stray value.  This year, we’ll take a look at other votes – the MLB Awards and John Dewan’s.

I have never come up with a satisfactory name for my defensive ratings.  Dan Szymborski suggested I name them for what they are – Linear Weights Zone Ratings – LWZR.  That appears to be pronounced Lew-zer.

So here are the LWZR Awards.  Run values (Defensive Runs Saved – DRS) are “compared to league average”, and are an approximate value – players within a handful of runs can be considered approximately equal.  Yes, that’s the same few paragraphs as the AL report.  I’m not as creative as some.

First Base

Albert Pujols came into the league as a third baseman, and he was pretty good.  He moved to the outfield, and he was pretty good.  He’s now moved to first base, where he is very good.  I don’t know if the Cardinals are maximizing…

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Is Jim Rice a Hall of Famer?

With all the HOF talk lately, I was wondering if Jim Rice might be a candidate.  Maybe you’ve seen some discussion on it – maybe not.  With next year being his last year of eligibility, I figure, what the heck, take a look.

I am a Small Hall of Fame person.  That means people have to be great to get in.  There is room, in my Hall, for achieving milestones, because milestones are only achievable through quality over time.  There are no peak-driven milestones.  I am also as guilty as the next BBWAA voter with regard to some level of “feel” in my Hall.  You have to.

I’m also something of a position stickler.  People like to lump the HOF outfielders together, and I don’t think they would lump the HOF infielders together.  The three OF positions are distinctive and teams look for different skills for each one.  Yes, left fielders and right fielders are close, but they are not the same.  Center fielders are clearly a different class.

So it’s pointless to look at the best HOF left fielders and pretend that Rice is in the class of Williams or Musial.  But is he in the class of the rest…

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The 2007 AL Gold Glove Awards

These are the 2007 Gold Glove Awards as I see them.  Now, these are calculated as I laid out before, and reproducible by you.  There are several good defensive systems available now, and thanks to STATS and BIS, they produce data that seems to be pretty consistent, with the occasional stray value.  This year, we’ll take a look at other votes – the MLB Awards and John Dewan’s.

I have never come up with a satisfactory name for my defensive ratings.  Dan Szymborski suggested I name them for what they are – Linear Weights Zone Ratings – LWZR.  That appears to be pronounced Lew-zer.

So here are the LWZR Awards.  Run values (Defensive Runs Saved – DRS) are “compared to league average”, and are an approximate value – players within a handful of runs can be considered approximately equal.

First Base

In the American League, with two-time incumbent Mark Teixeira over in the NL, there would be a new GG holder.  Well, I suppose Doug Meitkiewicz (2001) and Darin Erstad (2004) were still active and neither played very much first base.  I know, that didn’t stop Rafael Palmeiro in 1999.  Nonetheless…

The LWZR Gold Glover – Casey Kotchman.  Kotchman had 12…

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Defensive Analysis - Continuous Improvement

Retrosheet has become even more valuable?  Who would think that was possible?  They are also becoming faster, and Baseball Reference is also reaching new heights in capabilities and faster updates.  Coupled with Chone Smith’s skill-sets, I have managed to look at last year’s defensive ratings.

At the beginning of this past baseball season, Chone took a look at OCab’s defensive plays, and pondered the results.  Why didn’t OCab’s chances match up with what his Zone Rating, my personal favorite defensive system, claimed he made?  I have studied ZR for a long time.  I am certain that it had been defined as “ground balls into a player’s zone converted into outs, as a fraction”.  Chone’s analysis demonstrated this to not be true.  Line Drives (LD) caught appeared to be included.  It didn’t make sense to me – I had asked this question specifically of STATS before and was told that LDs were not included.  Really, though, the math was not making sense either way.

So I asked the inventor, John Dewan.  John truthfully answered, “I’m not sure.” Fair enough – the designer doesn’t always have all the controls over the actual inputs.  John now does (and designed) the work at BIS, and…

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Landing Buerhle a Great Move

The Buerhle Deal

Much has been written about the Buerhle deal – some good observations but some really odd stuff as well, particularly in attempting to select Buerhle’s peers.  I mean, selecting pitchers that posted a 4.50 ERA prior to 1993-94 is peculiar as a Buerhle peer.  Moreover, Mark has thrown 1500+ innings since he entered the major leagues, and he’s only 28 this season.  Looking at going forward, I want to select his peers – people who performed as Mark Buerhle has – not guys who didn’t perform as well as Mark Buerhle has in many fewer innings.  That’s not terribly interesting.

So what has Mark Buerhle done?  He’s thrown 1540 innings at an ERA+ of 123.  Since I am going to be pulling data from the past, and Mark is in good shape to finish this season with 200 innings, we’ll make selecting his peers as 1500 IP through age 28 season.  I also want to minimize era effects.  The strike zones of the 60s really ate many pitchers arms up – Jim Maloney, Drysdale, and there weren’t nearly the corrective practices that are in place since the 1970s, with pitch count restrictions, arm surgeries and Tommy John too.…

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My All-Stars

There are tons of ways to pick all-star teams.  I used to complain about some voters, but my wife has pointed out more than once that the All-Star Game is for the fans, so whomever one votes for is fine.  Nonetheless, I think it’s poor form to vote for everyone on your favorite team, particularly if that player is hitting under the Mendoza Line (coughAndruwcough).  But even when that happens, while it robs from deserving players, it won’t really threaten to “win” a slot.  The days of the Reds ballot box stuffing are over.

A good friend of mine, TheOtherHarris, does make the “all favorite team” vote.  My wife votes for ”best looking players”.  She also votes for ”player votes most likely to irritate my husband”.  Who’s to say’em no?  None of us.  I don’t mind if some numbskull wants to vote for Chris Duncan for the OF, as long as he recognizes he’s voting 100% fanboy.  100% fanboy for the ASG is perfectly acceptable.  The game is for you, vote for who you want to see play.

So given those things, here are my ballots for the past few weeks (about 75 votes, give or take an email address):

American…

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The New Home Run King

Who?

Barry Lamar Bonds. Yes, a year ago, we heard how he was done, and would be lucky to play another game.  He may not even catch Ruth, much less Hank Aaron. He went on to hit twenty-six home runs, and is within a half season, or so, of the Hammer.

What?

The all time career home run record. Yes, the most treasured mark in the history of sports.  Nothing compares to this mark.  Well, perhaps the single season home run mark, and Bonds did what Aaron never could - set that mark.  And with seventy-three in 2001, he may have pushed the mark out where it won’t be approached for the time gaps that made it so treasured.  Ruth held the mark at 60 from 1927 to 1961 - 34 years.  Roger Maris broke that mark under tremendous pressure in 1961, and held the mark for 37 years.  Mark McGwire hit 70 in 1998, and held it for just three seasons.  Can Bonds hold the mark for thirty plus seasons or is a younger slugger like Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Howard going to climb over that mark? 

When?

Isn’t this what everyone wants to know?  The tickets for Giants’ games…

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2006 National League Gold Gloves - As I see it

Defensive data has been and is being refined pretty well these days.  With more and more play-by-play data making it to the mainstream, all of us are stretching the boundaries of what we require from black-box analysts.  With the exception of some park factors, we are discovering that Zone Rating provides a pretty good picture of defense.  Taking the zone rating and accounting for league averages, based on tens of thousands of defensive innings played, we can closely assess the number of runs saved by a defensive players as compared to his peers.

To be sure, even this data could be refined to account for parks better - Fenway’s Green Monster is a tremendous issue - and handedness of batters - NOT handedness of pitchers - to tune the picture a bit better, but the data you will read will be very close to any refined data.  Very close.  The basic methodology for this work is here. You can also read more on where we are headed with Park Factors by reading Rally’s latest work.

I have tweaked this for chances per inning from the original data, so the chances assumed here may be slightly higher/lower, but if you did the…

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2006 American League Gold Glove Winners - As I see it

Defensive data has been and is being refined pretty well these days. With more and more play-by-play data making it to the mainstream, all of us are stretching the boundaries of what we require from black-box analysts. With the exception of some park factors, we are discovering that Zone Rating provides a pretty good picture of defense. Taking the zone rating and accounting for league averages, based on tens of thousands of defensive innings played, we can closely assess the number of runs saved by a defensive players as compared to his peers.

To be sure, even this data could be refined to account for parks better - Fenway's Green Monster is a tremendous issue - and handedness of batters - NOT handedness of pitchers - to tune the picture a bit better, but the data you will read will be very close to any refined data. Very close. The basic methodology for this work is here.

I have tweaked this for chances per inning from the original data, so the chances assumed here may be slightly higher/lower, but if you did the same work from the referenced article, you'd find your results would be within a run or two of…

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Defense Over the Last Twenty Years - Part Five: AL Outfield

Top Career Defensive Performances – American League Outfield

The American League outfield leaders are full of people I wouldn’t have thought of.  There are a few players I do think of, but many others I wouldn’t have named.  It isn’t that they aren’t good fielders, but there simply are very few outstanding fielders in the OF for the AL over the last 20 years.

Left Field

Left Field saw a lot of players rotating through the position and had very few “career” left fielders over the period.  Over two thousand players logged innings in left field - that’s 100 a season for the 14 teams.  It’s obviously an offensive position.

The leader over the last two decades was Garret Anderson.  He has played a lot and played well.  He’s good enough to spend time at right field and center.  He’s not great, and it shows with a mediocre, but above average, RS/150.  Anderson is much better in left than the other slots.

YEAR	POS	NAME	LAST	TEAM	LG	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
1994	LF	Garret	Anderson	Cal	AL	4	28.0	0	10
1995	LF	Garret	Anderson	Cal	AL	99	815.7	2	4
1996	LF	Garret	Anderson	Cal	AL	140	1247.3	10…

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Defensive Rankings by Position- NL - Aug 27

NL Defense through August 27

The following data represent the defensive rankings for the American League players by position, with a minimum of 500 innings played. RSpt is Runs Saved for the playing time of the player above average for that much playing time. RS/150 is how many runs that would be in 150 games played. This is explained in the methodology here.

Catcher

Pos	NAME	LAST	TEAM	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
2	Yadier	Molina,	StL	98	831.7	5	8
2	Miguel	Olivo,	Fla	97	752.0	5	8
2	Yorvit	Torrealba,	Col	57	480.3	4	10
2	Ronny	Paulino,	Pit	101	841.0	3	5
2	Johnny	Estrada,	Ari	94	799.3	3	5
2	Jason	LaRue,	Cin	54	450.3	3	8
2	Damian	Miller,	Mil	87	748.3	2	4
2	David	Ross,	Cin	55	455.3	2	6
2	Brian	Schneider,	Was	98	798.3	1	2
2	Russell	Martin,	LA	87	760.3	1	2
2	Eliezer	Alfonzo,	SF	60	509.0	0	1
2	Brad	Ausmus,	Hou	109	893.0	-1	-1
2	Brian	McCann,	Atl	93	767.0	-1	-2
2	Paul	LoDuca	NYM	94	826.3	-4	-7
2	Michael	Barrett,	ChC	96	803.3	-7	-11
2	Mike	Piazza,	SD	77	560.0	-11	-28

Piazza…

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Defensive Rankings by Position- AL - Aug 27

AL Defense through August 27

The following data represent the defensive rankings for the American League players by position, with a minimum of 500 innings played. RSpt is Runs Saved for the playing time of the player above average for that much playing time. RS/150 is how many runs that would be in 150 games played. This is explained in the methodology here.

Catcher

Pos	NAME	LAST	TEAM	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
2	Ivan	Rodrig'z	Det	94	811.3	8	13
2	Ramon	Hern'ndz	Bal	111	905.3	5	7
2	Jose	Molina	LAA	60	492.0	3	9
2	Joe	Mauer	Min	97	858.7	3	5
2	Jorge	Posada	NYY	109	852.3	3	4
2	Jason	Kendall	Oak	110	984.3	2	3
2	John	Buck	KC	94	783.0	2	4
2	Rod	Barajas	Tex	87	758.7	2	4
2	Kenji	Johjima	Sea	117	928.0	0	1
2	Mike	Napoli	LAA	75	569.3	0	0
2	Jason	Varitek	Bos	82	687.3	-1	-2
2	Toby	Hall	TB	61	494.0	-1	-3
2	A.J.	P'rzynski	CWS	106	906.3	-5	-8
2	Bengie	Molina	Tor	81	690.3	-6	-12
2	Victor	Martinez	Cle	105	879.3	-7	-11

Wow, Ivan Rodriguez is the best defensive catcher in…

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Defense Over the Last Twenty Years - Part Four, AL Infield

Top Career Defensive Performances – American League Infield

Unlike the National League, the American League defensive stars aren’t full of surprises.  There is a good chance you could list the top three at each position.  These players were recognized for being good fielders during their playing days.  However, the AL has some outstanding performances – easily matching their NL counterparts.

That does sound odd, considering the NL had Ozzie Smith.  Oh, the AL have their own brilliant defensive players.

First Base

At first base there are several players considered to be very good.  Then there is one who wasn’t nearly as good of a hitter as people thought, but he got a handful of rings anyway.

The runner-up at first base for great defense was Tino Martinez.  The Yankees may have known what they were doing with Martinez, and he rewarded them.

YEAR	POS	NAME	LAST	TEAM	LG	GP	INN	RSpt	RS/150
1990	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	23	163.0	0	-2
1991	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	29	236.3	-1	-4
1992	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	78	664.7	6	11
1993	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	103	910.7	6	9
1994	1B	Tino	Martinez	Sea	AL	82	700.7	2…

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