The Chicago Cubs begin each season with a significant disadvantage in their quest to win the World Series: they play in the National League Central Division, which has six teams. All else being equal (and ignoring the wild card), the Cubs have a 16.7% chance of reaching the postseason at the beginning of the season. The same is true, of course, for every other team in the NL Central. Each team in every other division save the American League West, however, has a 20% of winning its division; the AL West teams have a 25% chance.

Consequently, the Atlanta Braves, for instance, have approximately a 20% greater chance of winning its division than the Cubs have of winning the NL Central. The Texas Rangers have a 50% greater chance.

There is, in my mind, no greater blight on major league baseball than the fundamental unfairness of its divisional alignment. And no one of importance ever says a word about it.

Read the rest at CubsNet.com.

I will state right now that the NL Central, despite having 6 teams, will have the worst division winner in baseball in 2007.

And if the Cubs can’t win it even with this payroll “plus-up” then Hendry should be fired and never be a GM again.

if the Cubs can’t win it even with this payroll “plus-up” then Hendry should be fired and never be a GM again

I wouldn’t go that far. It’s up to Hendry to put the Cubs in the best position to win, within the limitations of his job function. At some point, it’s up to the coaches to coach and the players to play.

In the NL Central--and other divisions--not all of the teams in it are actually trying to win, and in most years, therefore, it has only four or five teams that are actually worth worrying about (and usually fewer).  For example, last season only the Cardinals, Astros, and Reds were in anything resembling serious contention. 

So this argument is rather misleading.  Of course, it’s still a bit unfair this year, because, for example, in the AL West only three teams have any chance to win, but in the NL Central there appear to be four teams with some chance.  But that varies from year to year, and ends up having little to do with how many teams are actually in a given division.  Even in the days of 7-team divisions, there were seasons in which a whole division had only two contenders.

Vaux - 28 January 2007 08:50 PM

In the NL Central--and other divisions--not all of the teams in it are actually trying to win, and in most years, therefore, it has only four or five teams that are actually worth worrying about (and usually fewer).  For example, last season only the Cardinals, Astros, and Reds were in anything resembling serious contention. 

So this argument is rather misleading.

It’s not misleading. I never said that there are no other factors involved. Of course, there are. But before a dollar is spent, a coach begins teaching, or a pitch is thrown, the NL Central teams are at a disadvantage, as they simply have more teams to compete against.

Without adding or subtracting teams, the schedule would have to be funky if the divisions were evened out. 5-5-5 in each league necessitates at least one interleague series at any given time. Would this guy prefer going back to two divisions per league?

David de Sportszilla (aka DeadTeddy8) - 29 January 2007 05:59 PM

Without adding or subtracting teams, the schedule would have to be funky if the divisions were evened out. 5-5-5 in each league necessitates at least one interleague series at any given time. Would this guy prefer going back to two divisions per league?

I address that at the linked article: “an always-present interleague series is much less of a problem than the current situation.”

steffens - 28 January 2007 10:28 PM

Vaux - 28 January 2007 08:50 PM

In the NL Central--and other divisions--not all of the teams in it are actually trying to win, and in most years, therefore, it has only four or five teams that are actually worth worrying about (and usually fewer).  For example, last season only the Cardinals, Astros, and Reds were in anything resembling serious contention. 

So this argument is rather misleading.

It’s not misleading. I never said that there are no other factors involved. Of course, there are. But before a dollar is spent, a coach begins teaching, or a pitch is thrown, the NL Central teams are at a disadvantage, as they simply have more teams to compete against.

We have to compete against the Pirates?  I thought they were in permanent 65 win mode.

In any event, a 15-15 league alignment with an interleague series going on all the time is a much better situation, but I just can’t find myself upset that the Cubs have to compete in a 6 team division when the Pirates are one of those teams.

Dan The Mediocre: Now with 70% more love! - 03 February 2007 04:24 PM

In any event, a 15-15 league alignment with an interleague series going on all the time is a much better situation, but I just can’t find myself upset that the Cubs have to compete in a 6 team division when the Pirates are one of those teams.

The Pirates will not always be bad.