So if anything other than a split happens, are the Twins going to take it as a sign to act?  That is, would a big shift in the standings push them towards an early fire sale or a harder pursuit of the division? (Yes I know they’re always trying hard, but I mean actually raising the bar to expect winning instead of feeling good about their swings or whatever they were babbling during April.)

If they go 3-1, then on Tuesday morning they’d only be 6.5 back of Chicago (and a sweep would put them at 4.5.) That’s a very achievable gap in mid-May and would be quite a boost, but would it be enough to elicit some changes? I’m guessing not unless there was some very concrete weakness exposed during the series, like an injury or Castro going 0-18 with four errors or something. (Quite frankly I don’t think that’s a good example, as even that probably wouldn’t be enough to clear the memory of Juan’s .375 avg and fancy glovework from last month.) Anything they did to play that well would be an endorsement of the status quo and reinforce the organization’s penchant for inertia.

On the other hand dropping four might be enough to bring down the curtain on this incarnation of Twins Win Cycle 01-04.  If they were 12.5 back it might be enough to send Hunter, Lohse, Cuddyer, Stewart and any other loose baubles that might not fit cleanly into the 07 plans out to the highest bidders. I’m not sure if 1-3 (10.5 games back) would get things rolling, but in conjunction with anything else (an injury, say) they’d be on the market pretty quick.  In conjunction with the improved division it’s going to be harder than ever to pick those games up, so even a split leaves them close to shifting emphasis to next year.

I’m just not getting the feeling from this group that they feel any destiny or wind at their backs or etherial Puckett influence. So if they’re not totally feeling it when the stadium thing either happens or fails you’ll probably see a lot of preparation for next season.  That’ll probably include more Kubel and Bartlett, less Lohse and Stewart, and maybe some experimentation with the CF of the future during September.  (Tangent: I’m not sure they’ll deal Hunter given their options for 07—Ford? Tyner? Span?? Punto?!?—but if the right deal were offered I could see them pulling the trigger to get out from under the $12.5m dilemma.)

Thoughts?

I think it’s going to be an interesting week for speculation.  With TR spending a week in Rochester evaluating players and a big series this weekend, there could certainly be some changes coming.  But I really don’t count on it quite yet.  If there is a sweep or an injury, I could see something happening.  But otherwise I think the team will take the next 3 series and decide what to do.  Chi, Det, and Mil should be a decent challenge and will give them time to show if they are really coming around or not.  If they haven’t made up any ground in 10 days, aren’t playing well, and the legislature is out, they will start to slowly dumping players and looking to the future.  But if they’ve madeup some ground and the pitching is getting more consistant, I think they’ll decide to ride things out and see what happens.  There is enough underperforming talent that it makes sense to see wait and see what happens for a while.

I would almost look forward to them dumping some players in trades, as there are a lot that could go, and it could really help to shore things up in the future.  The problem is that most of the players that are likely to go are slumping, which isn’t the time to try to trade them.  How much can you get for the lifeless Castro, White and Batista now?  The inconsistant Radke, Lohse or Silva?  The streaky Stewart and Hunter or a gimpy Castillo?  These last 3 might have some value right now, but the other ones are really at a low spot.  Even if you lose some ground in the race now, you are almost better off waiting for these players to rebound or another team to get really desperate before trying to trade them.  Dumping players just to dump them won’t help at all.

I agree that most scenarios have the Twins riding things out. That’s almost always the case with Terry Ryan, but especially now for the reasons you cite.

What I’m curious to know is not who they’d trade away, but who they’d replace first if they feel a move is needed. Where’s the first upgrade going to occur? Is it Bartlett for Castro, Kubel into RF, or a wildcard like trading for Reggie Sanders or a real third baseman? Will they just go get another hitter and let White sit down for a while? Lots of unlikely choices here compared to the laundry list of guys they could send away.

1. Castro has as many errors as Bartlett now, and while he’s played more games and at least one was a fairly lame scoring decision the fact is his glove is all that justifies a place on the field. If the scoring drought is severe enough it might be time to put him in a platoon with young Jason where Juan gets Silva starts and Bartlett gets the flyball guys.

2. True to his Kelly heritage Gardy loves his glove guys, so Batista not being Brooks Robinson over there (with the glove or even the bat) might find himself a surprise candidate for the Endowed Matt Lecroy Bench of Righty Pinch Hitting. That would let Kubel take a lineup spot and Cuddy and Rodriguez could split third. The problems with this plan are myriad: low-OBP Batista would be a terrible pinch hitter; the organization and/or Cuddyer may not be prepared to return to third; Kubel really hasn’t been hitting at that well in Rochester; they really don’t second guess themselves very often in MN and are unlikely to change their minds now; and most damning, it wouldn’t improve the hot corner defense at all.

3. Send Cuddyer and some young pitching for an OF with talent. Not a typical MN ragbag scrap like Matt Stairs, but a real hitter like Adam Dunn, Carlos Lee, Craig Wilson, or better yet Vernon Wells if Toronto’s pitching plague has them thinking about next year. They’re all outstanding players that would be hard to pry away, but with Shannon Stewart pretty much certainly gone next year and only one Kubel on hand to fill two corners there will be a spot longer term. Wells has the additional benefit of filling CF once Hunter leaves. This involves a gamble, some vision and a firm confident hand at the tiller, so it’s pretty unlikely unless they are really good in the next two weeks.

Honestly, I’m kind of baffled about how they could make a trade to improve the team.  They almost need an injury to open something up.

I’d be fine with Bartlett coming up, but I heard TR yesterday say that eventhought he was hitting well, he still wasn’t taking control on defense, which was his main concern.  So I guess that’s not in the cards right now.

I’d be fine with replacing Batista, but I don’t see any trade scenario that would really improve things there.  Third base is just a really bad position around the majors right now.  Cuddyer would be the best option, but the team still seems to have decided that he’s not an option.  LRod would be ok, but I can’t imagine him being much of an upgrade.  TR also said yesterday that if Batista doesn’t turn things around soon, they’d probably start dividing time at 3rd.  So LRod might not be far away.

The problem is that usually the easiest place to upgrade is at OF or DH, and the team already has 5 guys playing there that they seem to like, plus Kubel at AAA.  The only way I see a real upgrade is to package one of the outfielders with a pitcher and get an even better outfielder back, like you said.  I don’t know if Cuddyer is they guy to send or not, but I’m really not that attached to any of them.  If there was an injury, it would be easier to decide how to proceed.  I’d love to get Craig Wilson, but I don’t see much of a scenario where we’d have an opening for him and we could trade away something that would get him.