Didn't Sheehan also predict that the collapse of the Yankees would be the biggest story of 2005?

BP gives the White Sox a 70% chance of winning the ALCS, which I think is a little high. I'd give them that chance if they won tonight.

That said, last night's win was huge. The Angels grabbed the initiative by winning the matchup that most favored the White Sox, but the White Sox grabbed it right back by winning the next two, including the one that most favored the Angels.

Tonight is a fairly interesting matchup. Santana completely dominated the White Sox in his second career start, pitching a complete-game shutout, scattering five hits, walking just one, and striking out seven. I really hope the Sox have a better scouting report on him this time around.

Garcia had two starts against the Angels this year. One was terrific,the other merely serviceable.

The warm SoCal afternoon weather should benefit him.

Should be another low-scoring affair.

If the White Sox win tonight, they'll certainly have better than a 70% chance of winning. Teams up 3-1 with a game on the road and two at home don't often lose. Unless they're the 2003 Cubs or 2004 Yankees. A 3-1 lead is really pretty big, but that 0-3 comeback by the Red Sox is going to make everyone think twice until they've won now.

If we go up 3-1, I'm going to have no idea what to do with myself.

If we lose and the series is 2-2, well, that's how we've been playing it all year. 3-1...well, you can start tasting that.

Expect to hear a whole lot about Bartman if we win tonight. Might be the only reason why I'm glad I'm not anywhere near Chicago right now.

The Sox did win 71 games ... it's just that they didn't stop there.

There are some parallels to the 2003 NLCS - same pattern of home/road wins, for one thing. The Marlins started rookie Dontrelle Willis in Game 4.

Other than Ozzie Guillen I'm not sure who was in uniform for both series.

Josh Paul actually played a bit for the 2003 Cubs, but I'm pretty sure he wasn't on the playoff roster.

Didn't Sheehan revise his statement mid-season saying they were just a 79 win team? Hey, that's only 20 off...

It was funny. On BP radio, they had Sheehan on when the Sox were up 2-0 on Boston. He sounded 100% convinced that the series was going back to Chicago. IIRC, he even started to talk about the game five matchups. Can't the guy just admit he was wrong already?

You guys better hope they win this year, because when the 2006 White Sox do their impression of the 2003 Angels, you're not going to be very happy.

Can't the guy just admit he was wrong already?

Sheehan has admitted that he was wrong about Mark Buehrle. Sheehan had Buehrle tabbed as a mid-rotation innings eater. He has admitted that he underestimated how good the Sox defense would be this year, although that shouldn't have been too surprising, if he paid attention to his own organization's defensive stats. Last year, I remember BPro running some park-adjusted defensive efficiency numbers, and the Sox were in the top six or seven in all of MLB. Since then, the Sox arguably got stronger in right and left fields (compared with the collection of stiffs who played right last year and Carlos Lee, who while much improved, is probably still a notch below Pods, even though Pods gets terrible jumps and has a noodle arm), shortstop (Uribe didn't play there much last year) and second base. Pierzynski/Widger look better than Olivo/Alomar/Davis/Burke, but catcher defense is notoriously hard to measure.

Sheehan also hasn't said one word about José Contreras, at least not that I've seen. This is what he said about Contreras at the time of the trade last year:

I’m not sure what Kenny Williams was thinking here. His window for winning with this team is the next two months, and he made a trade that will make the Sox worse in the short term, and saddles him with a mediocre pitcher for $14 million over two more seasons. He needed to be aggressive about adding OBP and perhaps a reliever, and instead he let the offensive problems fester while adding a headache.

Sheehan completely ignored the fact that Contreras had an unusual development pattern to say the least and perhaps wasn't in the best of environments for a pitcher who needed to work on his mechanics and mound presence.

BPro was making fun of Jermaine Dye this spring -- going so far as to joke that they'd like to sign him to a long-term deal for their HACKING MASS team -- when Dye got off to his brutal start, even though PECOTA had him at a 31.7% breakout rate. He had a significant collapse rate of 19.4%, too, but I haven't seen any acknowledgement that he played close to his 75% PECOTA predictions despite the terrible start.

Oh well. People make mistakes, but I understand that it's comforting to hear/read someone acknowledge them. It's clear that Sheehan is ticked about getting a lot of emails from White Sox fans about his prediction. He's been vicious when he gets the chance to rip on the Sox, although perhaps only a little more so than he is on any team not considered a BPro favorite. He said this week that he might run some of the emails he got about Buehrle, because he missed so badly on him, and this seemed more like a good-natured acknowledgement than a complaint.

It's clear that Sheehan is ticked about getting a lot of emails from White Sox fans about his prediction.

Well, he keeps digging a bigger hole. He should have cut his losses.

You guys better hope they win this year, because when the 2006 White Sox do their impression of the 2003 Angels, you're not going to be very happy.

I will be very happy if they win it all, even if they play like the 2003 Devil Rays in 2006.

when the 2006 White Sox do their impression of the 2003 Angels, you're not going to be very happy.

We already had our version of the 2003 Angels - the 2001 White Sox.

Journeyman starting pitchers who had career years the year before falling off the planet? Check.

Spare-part hitters regressing or getting hurt after career years? Check.

The only difference was that the Angels offense got hot in the playoffs in 2002, and the White Sox offense didn't in 2000.

I don't think any Sox fan here expects another season with wins in the upper-90s next year, but unless the Sox have lots of injury problems next year (*knocks wood*), I don't think they'll fall off the table.

Now, I admit that Contreras and/or Garland could regress next year, but it would take both of them being awful AND McCarthy not panning out AND Buehrle or Garcia getting hurt for the 2006 White Sox to turn into the 2003 Angels.

Well, he keeps digging a bigger hole. He should have cut his losses.

Agreed. I think he's been borderline unprofessional in letting his emotions spill over into his columns when it comes to the White Sox, but I know I'm not a neutral observer either. Maybe I should ask GGC, BTF's Switzerland, to take a look.

And just to tie these two themes together, Sheehan said in a BPro chat in late April that the 2005 White Sox were the 2003 Royals redux. Heh.

It is kind of surprising how few songs the band SANTANA actually has that everyone knows - relative to their legacy; some people mention them in the same breath with Led Zeppelin and The Who and yet, trying to find obviousl musical references for tonight's Angel pitcher... there just ain't as much to choose from/go on as one might think.

Go Angels!

Didn't Sheehan recant or something at the end of the season?

We're the ############# Chicago White Sox. We are going to kick the goddamned Angels' asses tonight and tomorrow, and then they'll ####### thank us for it. Remember how ####### Angola posed for goddamned pictures when the dream team was dunking on them in 1992? The ####### Angel ####### are Angola now. After the Sox clinch tomorrow, I am going to pick the five cleanest Angel wives and #### their brains out and their ############# husbands are going to pay me for that privilege.
This is our ####### century. We let the Diamondbacks, Angels and Red Sox win the ####### World Series just to be nice. We tried to let the Cubs have one in 2003, but they're the Cubs. WE ARE THE ############# WHITE SOX!

Whoa.

That kinda came out of nowhere.

At least that provides enough rah-rah attitude for the rest of us, so we can carry on being cautiously optimistic at best.

It is kind of surprising how few songs the band SANTANA actually has that everyone knows - relative to their legacy; some people mention them in the same breath with Led Zeppelin and The Who and yet, trying to find obviousl musical references for tonight's Angel pitcher... there just ain't as much to choose from/go on as one might think.

Ervin "Black Magic" Santana?

OK it was a Fleetwood Mac song, but it's the best I could come up with.

Biff, I pointed out some of the things that Sheehan has acknowledged more recently, but he keeps predicting imminent collapse. That's fine. I agree with some of his criticisms (particularly about the need to improve the OBP in the lineup).

We're the #### Chicago White Sox. We are going to kick the goddamned Angels' asses tonight and tomorrow, and then they'll #### thank us for it. Remember how #### Angola posed for goddamned pictures when the dream team was dunking on them in 1992? The #### Angel ####### are Angola now. After the Sox clinch tomorrow, I am going to pick the five cleanest Angel wives and #### their brains out and their #### husbands are going to pay me for that privilege.
This is our #### century. We let the Diamondbacks, Angels and Red Sox win the #### World Series just to be nice. We tried to let the Cubs have one in 2003, but they're the Cubs. WE ARE THE #### WHITE SOX!

The hell?

sheehan clearly doesnt understand smartball and is an illiterate #####

This is our #### century. We let the Diamondbacks, Angels and Red Sox win the #### World Series just to be nice. We tried to let the Cubs have one in 2003, but they're the Cubs. WE ARE THE #### WHITE SOX!

Just to let Angels fans know: Ozzie Guillen does not speak for all of us.

some people mention them in the same breath with Led Zeppelin and The Who

Santana might be the second most overrated band of all time. The first is, of course, The Grateful Dead. Second is up for grabs, but as I said, first is The Dead. And whoever is in second, it isn't even close.

Dr. Memory, why you, ungrateful sh!t...

I'm off to go watch the game with friends. Enjoy the game, everyone.

Go White Sox!

I'm off to go watch the game with friends.

I'll be doing the same - actually, people are coming over here in about half an hour, so...

It's probably pretty rude to post on a BB when you have guests, isn't it?

Poor Joe. Can we ease up on him a little please? He's a good guy, who made a bad prediction and embellished for effect.

Can we kind of shift the criticisms from mouth foaming disgust to good natured ribbing. He deserves the latter, the former is a little much. I mean he's not Hitler folks.

You know the difference. Asking him for his help in your over/under wins bets in Vegas for next year is good natured ribbing. Demanding that he prostrate himself and that he e-mail a personal apology to every single White Sox fan he can find is excessive.

I feel awful about the way I used to go after folks like Cam Bonifay. You meet a couple of these people and you feel like a complete tool for your jackassery toward them in the past. I disagree with Pat Gillick on a lot of moves he's made as GM. Having met him, albeit briefly, he strikes me as an unusually pleasant and good guy that I bet few who knoe him speak an ill word about him.

I need to work hard to remember that and learn how to disagree with a move without invoking the venom of a 1,000 cobras down upon his head.

Now that I think about it, I'm not sure almost 70% would be so unreasonable. One way of looking at it is that it's a four-game series, and if the White Sox get a split, they win the series, while the Angels would need 3 of 4 for a series victory. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that 70% of four-game series end up as splits, though I'd guess it's a lot closer to half.

Can we kind of shift the criticisms from mouth foaming disgust to good natured ribbing. He deserves the latter, the former is a little much. I mean he's not Hitler folks.

That's a little much to ask of the Sox fan-base. We are perhaps the most bitter people alive with the longest memory to boot.

Yeah, guys, divert the venom from Joey Sheehan to the Fox studio crew.

I have no time for people who complain about the FOX crew. Morgan and Miller are calling the series on the radio, so you can listen to them instead if you want.

Can we kind of shift the criticisms from mouth foaming disgust to good natured ribbing. He deserves the latter, the former is a little much. I mean he's not Hitler folks.

Joe's a nice guy, and I stayed with BPro for a year mostly based on his writing. I've had a friendly e-mail exchange with him on a couple of occasions before this year - I let my subscription expire so I don't read him now. Even if I did, I don't send any of those flaming e-mails. But, if he doesn't acknowledge a mistake at some point, in a lot of ways he becomes what he used to make fun of.

Freddy's on the road, it's somewhat during the day there, and it's warm. Hopefully that will keep First-Inning Freddy out of the ballpark.

If Sheehan owned up to being completely wrong about the Sox, that wouldn't be real good for business.

Now that I think about it, I'm not sure almost 70% would be so unreasonable. One way of looking at it is that it's a four-game series, and if the White Sox get a split, they win the series, while the Angels would need 3 of 4 for a series victory. It wouldn't surprise me to find out that 70% of four-game series end up as splits, though I'd guess it's a lot closer to half.

If each team has a 50% chance of winning each game, then right now the Sox have a 68.75% chance of winning the series.

Kenny Lofton, Ringo Starr called -- he wants his 1964 outfit back.

Is Kenny Lofton going for the Desmond Tutu look?

Nothing stupid on the bases, Pods.

DON'T BUNT.

Pods shouldn't run on any fastball count.

Beautiful. Keep it going, Jermaine.

That looks like Iguchi sold the HBP a bit.

Nice baserunning there. Is it too much to ask for Paulie to hit another first-inning homer?

Finley = zero tools.

Nice move by Iguchi to take second there.

I love the Tadahito Iguchi love. He's a legitimately good player.

That "pop-up" was hit nearly 400 feet.

I love the Tadahito Iguchi love. He's a legitimately good player.

I have a major man-crush on him only exacerbated by the fact that the Giants play Ray Durham at second.

Ervin Santana is going to be an insanely good pitcher in a few years.

3 run homer!

I LOVE YOU, PAULIE!

Wow.

Paulie is gonna get some kinda contract this winter...

Konerko, I want your babies!

P-Ko! Again! Well called, #44.

I enjoy it when we don't bunt.

Konerko-ball Rules!

Is it too much to ask for Paulie to hit another first-inning homer?

As I advise my clients, if you don't ask for it, you can't get it.

A walk, a HBP, and a 3-R HR? Weaverball!

Moreno is going to go all Steinbrenner here and sign Konerko to a 7-year 140 million dollar contract.

This is an unusually feisty AB by Jurassic.

You'd think Anaheim would get tired of instantly going down 3-0 every game...

At least it took Rowand four pitches to get himself out. Good start, now let's keep First-Inning Freddy away from the mound.

6 batters, 3 runs, 33 pitches.

Very un-small ball. Ozzie will need to make up for it by sending every runner for the rest of the game.

Alright, let's hope First-Inning Freddy stayed in the clubhouse tonight...

It was not too much to ask, PH.

This looks very nice.

Terrific. Seven pitches.

I liked that version of First-Inning Freddy.

So Anaheim decided the problem was that they weren't hacking enough?

Wow.

The Angels just seem to be sleepwalking when they come to bat

I'm guessing that wasn't representative of First-Inning Freddy™

I enjoy K-hone Figgins. What part of small ball is it that has him hacking futilely at any pitch with a little movement?

Wow -- what an inning. Nice, Freddy!

Pierzynski, Crede and Uribe -- I hope they learned from the previous inning to not swing at the first pitch.

Is it a ridiculous idea to bat Crede in Rowand's spot, and drop Rowand to eighth? He hits more flyballs and strikes out less. Seems like somebody you'd want up more with runners on base.

The Angels just seem to be sleepwalking when they come to bat

If they were actually asleep, they might take a pitch now and then.

Third consecutive complete game?

Whoops, sorry. That ™ slipped in there. Old habits.

Wrigley Field, of course.

Home of the original Home Run Derby.

The son of Mark Scott wrote me once, complimenting me on a column I wrote about Home Run Derby. Then he offered to sell me some memorabilia.

AJ working him here.

Crede and Uribe -- I hope they learned from the previous inning to not swing at the first pitch.

Nope

What would have been hilarious is if Eddings had collided with Anderson and caused him to miss the ball...

Well, you wouldn't want to see that with runners on base. Thanks, Joe.

Then he offered to sell me some memorabilia.

I always liked when someone would hit a gapper or a ball off the wall and Scott would say something like, "Harmon, you'd take that in a real game, wouldn't you?"

There were a ton of awkward silences in that booth. He'd probably be torn apart in blogs this day and age.

A rare sighting of Juan UriBBe.

I hope Crede notices the contrast there. Full count, one-pitch out, full count-walk.

That brief glimpse of Santana and the blue sky from the mound camera just now floored me. That's why I love baseball & as silly as it sounds, it made me think how life is beautiful.

On the flipside, I hope the Angels stay oblivious to the contrast.

So why is Kotchman playing today?

Has the entire 25-man roster had a kid this year?

Focus, Freddy.

Four pitch walk to Erstad. Geez. And it makes Ozzie his second cousin, Tim.

First-Inning Freddy got stuck in traffic.

So why is Kotchman playing today?

New DH every day. Maybe tomorrow it'll be Finley, or Figgins.

####

I like Kotchman. I hope they decide to trade him to the Giants.

Garcia's the kind of pitcher you just expect to shoot himself in the foot.

####.