BBTF's Game Chatter Discussion :: Big, Honkin’ Doubleheader Toronto Blue Jays (76-79) at Boston Red Sox (91-64) 1:05 PM/7:05 PM

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Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Big, Honkin’ Doubleheader Toronto Blue Jays (76-79) at Boston Red Sox (91-64) 1:05 PM/7:05 PM

Game One
TOR: Bush (5-10, 4.45)
BOS: Wakefield (15-11, 4.09)

Game Two
TOR: Chacin (12-9, 3.66)
BOS: Schilling (7-8, 5.89)

From Replacement Level Yankee Weblog:
This BS about how tough it is to sweep a doubleheader (see M. Kay, Mike & the Dog, etc.) has been finally debunked by Elias. Using a sample of over 300 doubleheaders played over the past 10 years (both traditional and day-night), the same team won both games 51% of the time. Using a similar sized sample, the same team won the first two games of a series played on consecutive days 51% of the time (as cited by ESPN Mike & Mike). So much for another baseball maxim with no basis in fact.

Over the last five seasons, Boston has played 10 twinbills - they’ve split four of them, swept five and been swept once. (Thanks to Retrosheet)

Sean McNally Posted: September 27, 2005 at 09:49 AM | 542 comment(s)
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1. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 10:56 AM (#1645530)

Let's play two!
Oh God, I feel sick....
DB

2. Joey B. Posted: September 27, 2005 at 10:58 AM (#1645537)

The odds of either one of the two teams winning both games of the doubleheader isn't the same thing as the odds of a particular single team winning both games of the doubleheader, which will happen about 25-26 percent of the time, and that's what most people are normally talking about when they say how tough it is to sweep a doubleheader.

3. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 11:12 AM (#1645573)

Someone is jumping the gun

but also

there's this - the Horror!

DB

4. Bob Loblaw Posted: September 27, 2005 at 11:14 AM (#1645581)

Right Joey, but the odds of the Red Sox winning two games in a row against the Blue Jays aren't appreciably worse (if at all) just because the games are on the same day.

5. Sean McNally Posted: September 27, 2005 at 11:16 AM (#1645586)

That is just bad hoodoo DB, for both teams...

6. PhillyBooster Posted: September 27, 2005 at 11:18 AM (#1645591)

This is likely because your opponent also has to play a doubleheader that day.

I bet if the DH were against different opponents, your odds would drop considerably. Not that that ever actually happens.

7. Fat Al Posted: September 27, 2005 at 11:24 AM (#1645613)

Also, there is probably something to the fact that teams don't usually run out their "A" lineup in both ends of a DH. That consideration is out the window in a DH like this one.

8. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 11:46 AM (#1645682)

Dammit, I won't be able to follow Game 1 because of a quiz I'm going to fail horribly. A double whammy, if you will. And it'll become a triple whammy if it's a lost.

9. Joey B. Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:01 PM (#1645711)

I agree that it makes little or no difference whether the two games are played on the same day or consecutive days.

Obviously the true odds are impacted by the actual quality of the teams involved. Under the circumstances, the Red Sox sweep chances are higher than the average 25%.

10. Sean McNally Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:03 PM (#1645718)

11. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:07 PM (#1645726)

Wakefield is batting 7th? Dios mio!

12. John DiFool2 Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:12 PM (#1645741)

Wasn't there a DH a few years ago where one (home)
team played two different teams at the end of the
season for makeup purposes?

13. Bob Loblaw Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:21 PM (#1645770)

Where I think it might make a difference for Boston is if Toronto can get to their bullpen in one or both games - that would hurt them, though probably not that much, because it might affect pitcher availability on Wednesday and Thursday.

Well, I think it would hurt them for Toronto to get to their bullpen because the bullpen sucks, but that's just me.

14. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:43 PM (#1645833)

Cool, Quiroz is getting the start at catcher for Toronto.

15. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:46 PM (#1645840)

Has anyone done stuff on how the score effects the second game? It seems like if you use the A portion of your pen in the first game and then have to bring them back again they'd be more likely to tire and blow a game.

Just a theory, of course

16. villageidiom Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:55 PM (#1645860)

A double whammy, if you will. And it’ll become a triple whammy if it’s a lost.

Nah, it's still a double-whammy. If they lose, will you still be sad because you didn't get to see it?

It seems like if you use the A portion of your pen in the first game and then have to bring them back again they’d be more likely to tire and blow a game.

Assuming your bullpen has an A portion, of course. Fortunately the Red Sox can use their C portion in game 1, and leave their C- portion rested for game 2.

17. Fridas Boss Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:58 PM (#1645865)

Was listening to WEEI this morning and Theo said the order of the pitchers for today's game (Wake in the 1pm, Schilling the night game) was set to give Wake "a coplue extra hours rest" between today and his next start. Is that really the kicker in this choice??

18. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 12:59 PM (#1645869)

F. Catalanotto
A. Rios
V. Wells
S. Hillenbrand
E. Hinske
F. Menechino
A. Hill
G. Gross
G. Quiroz

D. Bush

J. Damon
E. Renteria
D. Ortiz
M. Ramirez
T. Nixon
B. Mueller
J. Olerud
D. Mirabelli
A. Cora

T. Wakefield

LETS GET IT ON!

19. Toby Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:01 PM (#1645873)

No one on this pitching staff is 2-7 or better. They're a bunch of 2-6's and 2-5's.

20. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:08 PM (#1645890)

Strong safety Rodney Harrison, the heart of the New England Patriots' secondary and long regarded as one of the league's most aggressive players at the position, will miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

21. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:09 PM (#1645891)

This is an inauspicious start, even if it was a foul ball.

22. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:09 PM (#1645893)

K!

Boo YA!

23. fra paolo Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:11 PM (#1645898)

Catalanotto remembered Brian O'Nora gave a homer to Luis Rivas in Montréal once.

24. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:11 PM (#1645899)

6-3... But Rent-A-Wreck makes a poor through. Johnny-O Comes to the rescue and saves the day with a pick.

25. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:12 PM (#1645901)

Nah, it’s still a double-whammy. If they lose, will you still be sad because you didn’t get to see it?

Good point.

26. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:13 PM (#1645902)

HBP, by Vernon and the HomoPHOBE is up.

Happy Birthday Mr. RedSox.

27. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:14 PM (#1645908)

Do hackers like Shea do better or worse against knucklers? Anyone know?

Surprisingly, this is his first career AB against Wakefield.

28. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:14 PM (#1645909)

Do hackers like Shea do better or worse against knucklers? Anyone know?

Enter a point in the database for "worse"!

29. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:15 PM (#1645912)

Hee GONE!! "TRADE ME *#*#(@)@" Payback HUMP!!

Wake is getting ahead of guys this could be a quick one. *crosses fingers*

30. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:18 PM (#1645913)

Must. Win.

Anyone actually watching? How's WaKe look?

31. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:19 PM (#1645916)

WWJDD? Single of course. He Will Not Die.

32. chris p Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:20 PM (#1645919)

Pitch 3 - Missed Bunt

grrr!

33. chris p Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:20 PM (#1645921)

Pitch 4 - In play, no out recorded

yay!

34. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:21 PM (#1645922)

Wind knocked that down, eh?

35. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:21 PM (#1645923)

Double off the wall!!

Menchino blows the tag.

36. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:21 PM (#1645924)

So, would you like to rescind the "grr"?

37. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:22 PM (#1645926)

I would have to say, Dave Bush does not appear to be much of a pitcher

38. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:23 PM (#1645927)

I think the grr is because he was attempting to bunt.

Bush is pitching around Papi.

39. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:23 PM (#1645928)

Productive-out-Tiz!

Meh.

40. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:23 PM (#1645930)

Ground Out. RBI.

1-0 Sox

Renteria to third.

41. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:24 PM (#1645934)

If Papi is gonna win MVP, he'll need more of those productive outs. I hear voters love that ####.

42. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1645935)

I want more.

43. tfbg9 Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1645936)

Take him to right, Manny.

44. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1645937)

Productive outs do not an MVP make.

45. tfbg9 Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:26 PM (#1645940)

Center will do.

46. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:27 PM (#1645941)

2-0!

Single!

Keep working Bush deep in the count. Lets get to that bullpen early.

47. Fat Al Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:27 PM (#1645944)

This game is over. Wake has no-hit stuff and Bush is going to give up a baker's dozen.

48. TVerik fondly recalls Todd Palin's facial hair Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:27 PM (#1645945)

Players from the 1997 World Series on the Yankees and Red Sox:

(Marlins)
Edgar Renteria
Gary Sheffield
Kevin Brown
Al Leiter

not on the roster, Primer fave Felix Heredia!

(Indians)
Manny Ramirez
Jaret Wright

not on the roster, Primer fave Enrique Wilson!

also playing big games today:

Gregg Zaun
Mark Kotsay

Those Marlins were stacked.

1997 Marlins

49. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:28 PM (#1645949)

K. :(

Lets go Billy Ball Game!

50. chris p Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:28 PM (#1645950)

I think the grr is because he was attempting to bunt.

actually i don't mind the bunt there so much. edgar is good about his bunt attempts... he bunts for hits, not sacs, so it's usually either foul, missed, or a good bunt. seems like he beats enough of them out.

51. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:29 PM (#1645951)

Ground out. Inning Over.

Good start though.

52. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:30 PM (#1645952)

With the way Wake's been pitching lately, 2 runs may be enough.

53. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:31 PM (#1645958)

Wakefield seems to be on again. How is his ERA over 4.00 though?

54. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:32 PM (#1645959)

Manny with a tough catch and a look like he just ate a cannery.

55. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:34 PM (#1645965)

Wakefield seems to be on again. How is his ERA over 4.00 though?

He had a bad run of games when Mirabelli was injured and he had to pitch to Varitek.

56. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:34 PM (#1645966)

so·lip·sism is usually the type of word you see in a BSG column.

This Klosterman dude is whicked smaht.

57. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:35 PM (#1645969)

K.

Hee Gone!

58. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:36 PM (#1645971)

So, anyone think Toronto can take game two?

59. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:37 PM (#1645975)

So, anyone think Toronto can take game two?

Schilling's pitching. Of course they can.

60. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:37 PM (#1645976)

I think they can take game 1. All it takes is a shift on the wind.

61. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:37 PM (#1645977)

Thanks Biff. What happened to your quiz?

62. Fat Al Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:38 PM (#1645978)

No.

63. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:39 PM (#1645987)

My god. Olerud K's... where is Freedom? Cleaning Titos pool?

64. Biff, Red Sox Jinx Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:40 PM (#1645989)

Thanks Biff. What happened to your quiz?

The first one was easy, as anticipated. Now I must leave to go fail the second one because I don't know what I'm doing. Fun times.

65. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:40 PM (#1645992)

Well, uh, good luck

66. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:41 PM (#1645998)

Another K for Bush. Cut it out. Go one the offensive!

67. E., Hinske Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:42 PM (#1646000)

I'm stuck at school and in a moment of weakness I bought mlb.tv for the game.

I would not be seven months from a law degree had I purchased this earlier.

68. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:42 PM (#1646001)

where is Freedom?

Bush is on the mound...so of course freedom is riding pine.

69. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:43 PM (#1646003)

2 base error by Gabe Gross... Cora at second with WWJDD up!

70. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:44 PM (#1646007)

ground out.

71. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:46 PM (#1646010)

Excellent Benji. Excellent.
DB

72. chris p Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:49 PM (#1646015)

guys, remember last time wakefield had a run like this? we won the division that year, didn't we!

73. Sean McNally Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:50 PM (#1646019)

Dear Toronto,

It's a knuckleball, not the ebola virus. Feel free to make solid contact with it.

Signed,
A. Boone

74. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:54 PM (#1646026)

I like this WaKKKKefield character.

FWIW, his career ERA in September is 3.70, the best of any full month. (I know, not worth much.)

75. E., Hinske Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:55 PM (#1646028)

Dear Aaron,

Let's review what's happened to your career since you made solid contact with the knuckleball. In 2004, you didn't play because you destroyed your knee. This year, you're batting .245/.300/.386-frankly, that's so bad that you couldn't even play for us. We're not going to #### around here-just make our outs and move on with our lives.

Signed,
The Toronto Blue Jays

76. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:55 PM (#1646031)

Dear McNally

Your a poopy head.

Signed,
The World.

77. Sean McNally Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:57 PM (#1646035)

Poop? </Musberger>

78. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 01:58 PM (#1646037)

BAH!

79. E., Hinske Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:00 PM (#1646043)

I wish Manny had charged the mound.

80. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:02 PM (#1646047)

This game is moving right along. Mid 4th already!
DB

81. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:03 PM (#1646049)

Well, Boone is .284/.340/.413 (i.e. about what you would reasonably expect from him) since the AS break.

82. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:04 PM (#1646053)

Come on, Billy, take a freakin' pitch. Where's the patience?
DB

83. RB in NYC (Now with Christmas Spirit!) Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:05 PM (#1646055)

Boy, Toronto really making him work. Jesus

84. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:06 PM (#1646057)

I almost typed the same thing SSA. Be awfuly nice to get into their bp early in the first game.

85. Sean McNally Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:10 PM (#1646063)

Is it just me or can Dave Bush just not put batters away when he gets to two strikes?

86. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:13 PM (#1646070)

Must be that exceptional New England education we both got in Wormtown. Speaking of which, I went to the Sox-Gloryholes game on Sun and ran into a guy wearing a WPI-Football T-shirt. You just don't see a lot of WPI grads in B-more.
DB

87. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:14 PM (#1646072)

Joe C just jinxed Timmy.

"Tim Wakefield has not allowed a $#%"

88. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:14 PM (#1646073)

Damn WTIC just switched from the game to Rush Limbaugh. I'm calling them right now. Apparently, WEEI went down.

89. Mister High Standards Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:15 PM (#1646074)

Told you.

Single and an Error.

90. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:15 PM (#1646075)

Here it comes...
DB

91. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:16 PM (#1646076)

I was stopped in a Target in Alexandria by a mother and son last month because I was wearing a WPI sweatshirt. Kid's just starting there this year. Majoring in video game design.

92. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:18 PM (#1646083)

Game Center has Wake up and all over the place all of a sudden. Wha happen?

93. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:18 PM (#1646085)

What?! There's a Video Game Design major at WPI now? That seems so, uh, New England Tech.
DB

94. The Politics of Torre: How the HOF Really Works Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:19 PM (#1646086)

And the game is back. Sorry for being as Luddite to use radio to follow the game.

95. villageidiom Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:20 PM (#1646091)

Must be that exceptional New England education we both got in Wormtown.

Is this the first time we've had three WPI grads in one chatter?

96. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:22 PM (#1646095)

At least in recent memory. Go Engineers.
You know, I haven't been back to Worc. since about 1998. I'd imagine it's much different now.
DB

97. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:22 PM (#1646096)

That seems so, uh, New England Tech.

There was just an article in the post about RPI's program, actually. I think it's become quite the thing (or will soon) at any school with a reasonably large comp sci dept. 'Course RPI's is only a minor, and yet they get the coverage in the Post. Typical.

Top of the order. Runs. Now.

98. villageidiom Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:22 PM (#1646097)

Or am I jumping to conclusions too quickly that BGG went to WPI? Probably the latter.

99. Benji Gil Gamesh Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:24 PM (#1646101)

You too, idiom? What year? Were you at the same party as DB and I? :)

100. Schilling's Sprained Ankiel Posted: September 27, 2005 at 02:25 PM (#1646105)

Not only that, but did you also get my ex-girl friend's number that same night?
DB

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