I'm not going to miss Tony LaRussa.

For pitching around Mike Rivera?

What a classic Bad LaRussa moment. Did he forget that a pinch-hitter would replace Sheets at the plate?

Did he forget that a pinch-hitter would replace Sheets at the plate?

I guess he wanted Sheets out of there. Of course, the new pitcher gets a 1-2-3 inning, and they would have lifted Sheets in the top of the eighth anyway. Bravo Tony.

They might have lifted Sheets for the bottom of the seventh anyway - he was already at 100 pitches and, with his injuries this year, I'm not sure that Yost would have been willing to push it.

Not that it matters. I'd still rather take Mike Rivera at the plate and either a tired Ben Sheets or a fresh Jose Capellan than walking Rivera, giving the other team two runs, and getting a fresh Jose Capellan anyway.

If the Cardinals lose this, they are forced to have Carpenter pitch tomorrow no matter what. They were hoping to clinch today and be able to keep him out for Game 1 of the LDS. Critical.

Oh, that Scott Rolen! Gotta love that guy, even if you have no use for the Cards.

Tying runs in scoring position. Lefty coming in to face Edmonds.

LaRussa counters with Encarnacion, which prompts Yost to signal for four wide ones. Belliard will come up with the bases loaded, one out.

Cordero time. 5 out save attempt.

Oh, geez. What was Pujols thinking?

I don't know ... that runner always has to tag.

Now Spiezio pinch hitting with two out and bags loaded.

And Spiezio clears the bases. 3-2 St. Louis

That was . . . clutch. All the way to Houston clutch.

One positive difference between this club and the 2004-2005 vintage of the St. Louis Cardinals: guys like Scott Spiezio on the bench who are actually able to hit in a pinch.

I may have to shave my face in some unusual way.

I'm reduced to "watching" the game on ESPN's GameCast--when Spiezio was up, I get the "Incoming pitch has been hit in play..." caption at the bottom of the screen, and watch that little computerized baseball fly to the base of the wall...that was almost as exciting as watching it live.

Maybe Spiezio was fired up by the Illini beating Michigan State. Though he likes those big situations.

So now maybe the Cardinals can clinch today, if the 9th inning goes well and get some help from the Braves. That would be so huge, being able to (a) save Carpenter, and (b) allowing him to get extra rest before his first play-off start. I would go so far as to say that clinching today could make the difference in having a legit shot v. really being a major long-shot in the LDS.

One out.

The Giants are probably pretty happy about this too.

Bell grounds to short. Two down.

Gross batting for the dangerous Rivera.

Walked him. Clark up.

wow. i'm glad i'm not watching. it would kill me.

Grounder to short. Force at second. Cards' magic number is 1.

Gee, they made that play VERY close at second with the careful flip. But he was out.

Pressure on the 'Stros big time. They cannot lose, period.

sportsline is hung up on the bell at bat. what's happening?

sweet jesus!

So if the Astros win tonight, would you hold Carpenter back tomorrow in the hope that you could win without him (or hoping the Braves might beat the Astros Sunday)? Then if you needed to, you could always pitch him against the Giants on Monday. That would give you the chance to have him available for Game 1.

I'd throw somebody else, and save Carpenter.

I'd save Carpenter too. You have several shots at the title and you only need one good thing to happen. If Carpenter starts Sunday and they still have to play Monday, they don't really have good options.

Damn, that was one of the biggest hits of this season, or any other.

somebody else who? we need to win the division outright. i'd go with carpenter, but i guess that's why i'm sitting here and TLR is out there.
:-)

somebody else who?

Well, who would pitch tomorrow if the Astros LOSE tonight, and the division race is over? Whoever that is.

The problem is there isn't somebody else.

I'd go with Johnny Wholestaff.

How about Reyes on short rest, for up to 70 pitches?

heck, if the stros lose they can start my old grandmother. but as of now, carpenter is announced as the starter.
great minds think alike!
;-)

They could always start Marquis on short rest - it's not like he could get any worse.

They could always start Marquis on short rest - it's not like he could get any worse.

That leaves an awfully high probability that Carpenter pitches on Monday, which defeats the purpose.

This is complicated enough that I think you have to sim it.

That leaves an awfully high probability that Carpenter pitches on Monday, which defeats the purpose.

Except that the Astros could lose on Sunday -- and boy, wouldn't it suck to have used up Carpenter unnecessarily if that were to happen? You could laugh about a Marquis disaster (well, maybe not laugh, but not care very much) if the Braves take care of Houston. Just as long as you had Carpenter (well-rested, no less) ready for Game 1.

I'd roll the dice hoping for that outcome, knowing that either a Houston loss, or a big outburst by my offense, gets me what I need on Sunday, without needing Carpenter. Then I get my big gun where I need him, and maybe win that LDS. You've got to take the chance, for the big payoff.

If they went with the Johnny Wholestaff alternative, they could start off with Chris Narveson - he's the young southpaw who had 6 K and 2 ER in 4 IP in a start against the Astros a week or so ago. Narveson threw over thirty pitches on the 28th after Marquis had been blown out, but he could possibly go for two or three innings and then hand off to Hancock and Sosa (who also pitched on the 28th).

Except that the Astros could lose on Sunday -- and boy, wouldn't it suck to have used up Carpenter unnecessarily if that were to happen?

No, what would suck is not making the post-season because Oswalt out-pitched Carpenter. The Cardinals are in the same position as a team up 3-0 in a seven-game playoff series. You don't push back your best starter in that situation, you go for the win now.

The Cardinals are in the same position as a team up 3-0 in a seven-game playoff series. You don't push back your best starter in that situation, you go for the win now.

That all depends, greenback44. If that best starter has shown signs of needing a good rest, maybe you take advantage of that solid lead to take a bit of a gamble and set up the next series, get him that rest, and not only have him available for the next series, but have him at his best. That's the part that would really tempt me -- having Carpenter on the extra rest that his last couple of outings really suggests he could use.

I also recall the 1973 World Series. The Mets had the A's down 3-2, and had the chance to hold Tom Seaver back for Game 7, when he would have been going on full rest. Instead, Yogi Berra started him in Game 6 on short rest (for the second straight start), and the Mets lost. Then Game 7, too. I thought then, and think now, it was the wrong decision. The best pitcher in the game, at full strength (backed if necessary by Matlack, who started Game 7 instead -- also on short rest), was the Mets' best shot to win the title.

Holding back your best for when he can be at his best is my mantra. If you can, that is. Here, I think the Cardinals can.

The Cardinals are in the same position as a team up 3-0 in a seven-game playoff series.

Completely different. Using your ace in the fourth game of a seven-game series still leaves him available in the first game of the subsequent series. And considering the subsequent series is only five games, and that they'd be underdogs against whomever they'd play, having Carpenter available to pitch twice is critical to their chances.

If the goal is to maximize the probability of winning the World Series rather than minimizing the probability of losing the division, then the slim possibility (2-3%) that everything goes Houston's way and they win in a playoff is the chance you have to take.

Using your ace in the fourth game of a seven-game series still leaves him available in the first game of the subsequent series.

OK, 2-0 in a five-game series then or 3-1 in a seven-game series.

And considering the subsequent series is only five games, and that they'd be underdogs against whomever they'd play, having Carpenter available to pitch twice is critical to their chances.

That's the advantage, and of course there's no guarantee that the series goes five games.

then the slim possibility (2-3%) that everything goes Houston's way

You are grotesquely under-estimating Houston's chances as of tomorrow morning, assuming a win tonight and assuming Jorge Sosa (?) starts tomorrow. There will be only four games left, including the playoff in Houston.

I could see holding Carpenter back a day if the Cardinals had anything resembling a viable alternative tomorrow. So the main point is to wait for an Astros loss, and those have been in short supply of late. I love John Smoltz, but you're asking a lot of the Braves in a meaningless game for them.

having Carpenter on the extra rest that his last couple of outings really suggests he could use.

What Carpenter really needs is a manager with the sense to pull him when everyone, including said manager, can see he's out of gas.

You are grotesquely under-estimating Houston's chances as of tomorrow morning, assuming a win tonight and assuming Jorge Sosa (?) starts tomorrow.

Carpenter will be starting tomorrow if the Cardinals need the game. Right now it looks as though they will (2-0 Houston in the sixth).

-- MWE