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I do want to see two things from the White Sox this weekend - (1) Buehrle pitching well, and (2) The White Sox winning one game.
Buehrle hasn't pitched well against a quality lineup in a long time, and tonight should be a test for him. Shutting down the Twins' lineup doesn't count.
And I do want the bragging rights in winning the division outright. I don't want the White Sox to be the first division winner ever to finish with the same record as another team in the division.
I don't care about the outright division title but I wouldn't want to ride a three-game losing streak into the playoffs, so I think we have the same goals.
Guillen sounds like he'll play it mostly with the regulars, though I'd hope Rowand in particular gets a night off.
gets sweptloses at least two. In that case, New York wins the east and Boston wins the Wild CardRight?
The first 13 games...
9/13 @TB - Wright v. Waechter (W 17-3)
9/14 @TB - Wang v. Hendrickson
(L)(W 6-5)9/15 @TB - Small v. McClung (W 9-5)
9/16 @TOR - Johnson v. Bush (W 11-10)
9/17 @TOR - Chacon v. Chacin (W 1-0)
9/18 @TOR - Wright v. Lilly (L 5-6)
9/19 vBAL - Wang v. Bedard (W 3-2)
9/20 vBAL - Small v. Maine (W 12-9)
9/21 vBAL - Johnson v. Lopez (W 2-1)
9/22 vBAL - Mussina v. Chen (W 7-6)
9/23 vTOR - Chacon v. Lilly (W 5-0)
9/24 vTOR - Wright v. Downs (W)
(L 4-7)9/25 vTOR - Wang v. Towers (W 8-4)
**************
Through 13 games, I accurately predicted 11 games, with only two surprises, but the net gain was zilch, as the predictioned and actual records both totalled and 11-2 record.
Below are the predictions for the final seven games as I first called them. Think Wildly Optimistic Predictions™ Classic
9/26 @BAL - Johnson v. Lopez
(L)(W 11-3)9/27 @BAL - Mussina v. Chen
(W)(L 9-17)9/28 @BAL - Chacon v. Cabrera (W 2-1)
9/29 @BAL - Small v. Bedard (W 8-4)
Now I am flip flopping on my predictions for the final weekend...
9/30 @BOS - Wang v. Wells
(L)(W)10/1 @BOS - Johnson v. Wakefield (W)
10/2 @BOS - Mussina v. Schilling
(W)(L)Remember, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things and no good thing ever dies.
I'd give Rowand, Pierzynski and Uribe the night off tonight, Iguchi tomorrow, and Konerko as soon as he picks up that 100th RBI. All the regulars should get half-days on Sunday.
I want Everett, Crede and Dye in the lineup most of the weekend. Everett and Dye seem to be getting hot, and I don't want them cooling off on the bench. Crede needs to make sure that he didn't lose his swing during those couple of unscheduled days off.
Wrong. If Boston wins two of three, Cleveland needs to win at least 2 of 3.
We'll probably see El Duque in relief sometime this weekend, auditioning for the playoff roster.
I'll be shocked if he makes it past the third inning.
DB
I think we'll see El Duque, but I don't think there's much chance of him making the postseason roster unless it's at the expense of Viz or even Hermanson if they decide his back is too risky. I highly doubt the latter.
I wonder if we'll see García throw an inning or two on Sunday. I read in the paper that they want him to start game 3 since it will be on the road and his numbers are better on the road (it may not be statistically significant, but he has pitched a lot better on the road), and that wouldn't be until Friday at the earliest.
David Wellsany Red Sox pitcher will crap out tonight. Big time.DB
Last night I was actually comfortable with Sox loosing. That would have forced the Sox to sweep, and put all the pressure on the Yankees. While unlikely, had it happen, the Yankee fans would have been just crushed, which is, I guess, the entire purpose of this game. Not that I complain about Papi adding some life into that clubhouse before the season-defining series.
Now it is like the seven game series stands at 2:1 in Yankees favor, with next 3 at Fenway, and the last one at the Stadium.
Well, McNally, this multi-game Chatter thing is a bad thing, and therefore I hope it dies.
2)If the Sox don't pull Wang too often tonight, they'll probably be up at the end o the night.
3)The Pantload will suck. He is not one of the 25 and I hate him.
Damn too-small stadium! How am I supposd to infiltrate the enemy if you make it so expensive?
.346/.447/.846 with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs.
Over a full season that kind of performance would
translate to about 85 HR and 254 RBIs. Eicccshh...
I can see Cleveland getting swept. I'm having a hard time seeing the Yankees get swept.
Though... IF Sunday morning rolls around, and the Red Sox have won the first two, how much would Georgie Steinbrenner's head explode to lose to the Red Sox AND then also miss the playoffs entirely? (Assuming Indians win two of three.)
Would Torre get fired? Would Mel? Would Cashman?
See, I think tummult in the Bronx is good for baseball, so I'm hoping for a Yankee collapse.
He is quite awesome. He also did not get selected to the All-Star game and is not nominated for the Hank Aaron Award.
Needless to say, it is difficult for me to muster sympathy for Red Sox fans who are pre-emptively complaining about David Ortiz not winning the MVP award. At least the whole world knows he is a badass.
And I'd like to point out that the White Sox will end up leading the division from wire to wire.
Yeah, that doesn't mean much, but I think it's cool.
See, I think tummult in the Bronx is good for baseball, so I'm hoping for a Yankee collapse.
Of course you do Darren, you are a Red Sox fan.
No matter what happens this weekend, I tip my cap to these Yankees, they put up an excellent fight, many, many teams would have folded when all their pitchers went down.
Loses 4/5ths of your starting rotation while staring up at the overdaog world champs, a lot of teams would have laid down. Not these Yankees.
Well, they had to do something to make that ridiculous Rocky montage they show before the 9th inning even somewhat relevant.
They lost 4/5ths of your starting rotation while staring up at the overdog world champs, many people expected them to lay down, but they didn't.
Hey, who the hell am I?
Should've planned ahead. I have 2 for Saturday and 2 for Sunday, and it only cost me ~$45 each. And in this general location, too.
Ideally, I'd like to see a White Sox/(some team) ALCS, but I'm realistic about that.
I'm surprised. That seems a bit low.
... without the Red Sox doing the humiliation.
It seems that this is an impossible fantasy.
Oh well. May the best team win. And I have to say, the Yankees have played like absolute Menschen over the last three weeks, incluso A-Rod.
I'm surprised. That seems a bit low.
If Sunday's game is meaningless, I can see that price dropping further.
Loses 4/5ths of your starting rotation while staring up at the overdaog world champs, a lot of teams would have laid down. Not these Yankees."
BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHA!!!
Yeah, SJ, those plucky, scrappy, PED'ing $200000000 payroll overachievers! Gimmee a break!
i absolutely hate the yankees, but my hat's off to them for coming through under pressure & getting far better pitching out of the unlikely likes of aaron small & shawn chacon than the sox could extract from high-priced pieces of crap like matt clement & david wells.
Head-to-head is a factor only if we're trying to figure out who won the division and who won the wild card if both teams are tied and in the same division.
Otherwise its a one-game playoff time.
Head-to-head is a tie-breaker for home-field advantage only. It does not apply in determining who goes to the playoffs and who doesn't.
Yeah, SJ, those plucky, scrappy, PED'ing $200000000 payroll overachievers! Gimmee a break!
The Yankees would be out of the race if not for the unlikely and probably unnatural return to form by Giambi.
Reasons the Yankees are in the race
1. Unlikely emergence of Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon.
2. Contributions from the farm system, vis a vis Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang.
3. ARod's MVP caliber season
4. Jason Giambi's recovery from injuries and illness suffered last year (self induced or not).
5. Dominant season from Mariano Rivera.
6. Resurgent season from Derek Jeter (best overall offensive numbers since his 1999 peak).
Reasons Boston is in the race
1. New York's inability to beat Tampa Bay.
2. An 11-19 start.
$300 is about what you'd pay this close to the game for any regular season NYY-BOS seat. B/c this is basically a 3 game playoff series, I'm a bit surprised that the ticket prices aren't up to playoff levels. I'd expect sunday's tickets to be $300 if that game were meaningless.
I think you have emergence/aberation confusion.
Here's hoping the MFY's count on these two flukes to make big contibutions to the 2006 starting corps.
Don't pull Wang.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4489
Player September Statistics
AB AVG OPS HR
Manny+Ortiz 201 .303 1.019 20
Others* 670 .255 .702 12
* Cora, Damon, Graffanino, Millar, Mueller, Nixon, Olerud, Renteria, Varitek
Yeah, explosively offensive, if you asked me...
As Steven A. Smith would say (not that I'm a fan of Steven A. Smith); "quite frankly, that's all you need."
"As we look towards the weekend series, we do see a fairly uninspiring Yankee rotation including Chien-Ming Wang (K/9 of 3.53) and Mike Mussina."
Cherry-picking Wang's K/9 ratio is ########. Yes, he hasn't struck anyone out-but he's made up for it with a stellar GB/FB ratio, high DP rates, and low P/PA (all of these among the top 10 among MLB starters, I believe). He also has plus control. His statistical profile is entirely consistent with the rare pitcher who can survive without K's. That sentance is no more or less ridiculous than writing:
"Pedro Martinez's changeup (80mph) is eminently hittable."
or
"David Ortiz (one of the slowest Red Sox) is a mediocre player."
When did BP turn into a bunch of Sox CoxSuckers?
No wonder John Kerry was confused.
Have you not heard of Mind Game?
You mean, like Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon? Let us not cover their bodies in cotton candy and send the Yankee faithful from north jersey to lick off their balls... Actually, let us do exactly that...
I have their stats page bookmarked, and I haven't gone to the rest of the site in about 6 months before today. It wasn't like this years ago.
No, their K-rates concern me greatly. But Wang has a much better chance of ongoing success than either of those 2 pitchers.
Not many, but there are a few. Jim Palmer springs to mind.
Here's hoping the MFY's count on these two flukes to make big contibutions to the 2006 starting corps.
I don't know that I'd call Chacon's performance a fluke.
Line A: 72.2 IP 69H 4.8 K/9 4.5 BB/90.87 HR/9
Line B: 78.1 IP 63H 4.6 K/9 3.4 BB/90.80 HR/9
Are either of those really out of line with this?
Career: 630.2 IP 606H 6.1 K/9 4.6 BB/9 1.27HR/9
And which one is Chacon's line with the Yankes?
You don't think there's a 1-in-9 chance that the White Sox will all die this weekend, thus forfeiting the division to the Indians?
Chacon had success, then was injured and pitched in Colorado.
Away from thin air and healthy, I don't think he has the potential to be "special," but he can be a solid No. 3 starter for the Yankees. The fact that he is reasonably cheap doesn't hurt none either.
What about 2000? I think he's having a better season then 2000, but not at the plate alone.
I haven't been around much and have seen few games, are A-rod's steals an attempt to pad the MVP numbers? He's now tenth in the league in steals which just adds to his unbelievable awesomeness.
Chacon is not a fluke, he's a league average pitcher in Coors, where it's pretty damn hard to be league average because of the physical effects from pitching at altitude. Expect a 105-115 ERA+ next year at least.
And people wonder why I have RIOT bookmarked.
Fair point. But Wang clearly can survive with FEWER K's than the typical pitcher, far fewer, in fact. If he can maintain his present sinkerballer profile, 4.5K/9 would be plenty. That's significant, because
1) I'm just guessing, but I suspect 3.53K/9 is within 1 SD of 4.5 K/9
2)Wang is a rookie, so its not unreasonable to expect the K/9 to improve
3) Wang is coming off of TJ surgery, so its not unreasonable to expect the K/9 to improve (and the BB/9 to go even lower).
My point is not: Wang is awesome! Better than Peavy!
My point is: Wang is atypically not dependent on a high K-rate. Presenting his K-rate, alone, as evidence of his shittitude is a misleading argument. Its surprising that a professional place like BP would make an argument that's so clearly misleading/incomplete. #### BP.
I agree with that. Although I think his perhiphreals will get better next season since he'll have been away from Coors even longer.
I heart Wang. I wish he would get more K's, but he is one of those rare pitchers who can succeed without getting many. Great G/F ratio, very good control which I expect to continue to improve, and he has the lowest LD% of any pitcher with over 100 IP this season. His sinker is ####### amazing.
Actually, they count ties as half-wins, half-losses. They actually give the Tribe a 22% chance at the sweep.
And yes, I know how they got the numbers, I just find their refusal to accept established fact to be humorous.
Wang's control is nice, and his sinker is nice too; I'd still be a LOT more excited about him if he can get his K/9 rate to around 6.5 or 7, without a big jump in his BB/9 rate. That would make him very good. His minor league record suggest that he may be able to increase hi K/9 rate, unless Mel has his way with him.
that's good funny
Why would BP let facts get in the way of statistics?
There has NEVER been a rookie pitcher who K'd less than the MLB average who has gone on to a successful career. Never. Except Jimmy Key, and he was barely below average, IIRC. And a lefty, who did all the others things exceptioanlly well. This a a major Jamesian axiom, baby. The MFY's would do well to deal some big time Wang in the offseason.
I don't think he'll ever be that high, although, like you, I would be a lot more excited about him as well, which is saying a lot. I see him getting up to about 5 or 5.5, though. He'll never be an Ace, but he should be an above average starter for a while, which is certainly valuable. I think he'll be okay, or at least more okay than most low K/9 guys, because he gives up so few line drives.
I was there that day and remember being so frustrated at just how in control he was all game long.
A repeat performance would be nice.
I find that a bit hard to believe. And even if you're right, how many pitchers have there been with as good of control as Wang in their rookie years? Or his ability to get groundballs? Or his ability to prevent line drives?
However, Small just hasn't pitched as well as his ERA, and obviously his W-L record suggests. I don't think he has a great talent at keeping the balls he lets go into the air stay in the park, no more than say an average pitcher.
With Wang, certainly he's very good at keeping the ball on the ground, but given that about 30% of those balls should turn into hits, and that he walks 3 batters per 9, should we really expect that he be so successful? I just don't see it. Right now He's Derek Lowe 2003-2005, and nothing better. If he gets his K-rate up, he can be Derek Lowe 1999-2002, which is to say a very very good pitcher.
Can anyone think of any other strong sinkerball pitchers to compare?
Both are better than Wang, obviously.
Actually it should be less with his LD%. His BABIP of about .270 is right where it should be considering his LD%. He's been K'ing guys at a slightly higher rate since coming back from injury, too. He's only walked 4 in the 26 innings since coming back as well.
I see no reason not to belive, if he's healthy, Wang will continue to improve and remain a good pitcher.
There are plenty of successful with below-average K-rates in their rookie years, this is ########.
DB
Two pitchers, using only the DIPS numbers...
BF SO UIBB HR HB dERA ld% gb/fb
A: 300 36 27 7 6 4.94 16.5 1.14
B: 284 33 26 7 6 5.09 23.9 1.48
</pre>
A = Chacon. ERA = 2.76
B = Wright. ERA = 5.97
Obviously, Wright's giving up more line drives (many of which seem to be kept in the infield by bouncing off his person). That would account for his having a higher ERA than dERA. Is there a compelling reason to think that Chacon has some sort of skill at encouraging balls finding fielder's gloves? If not, then he's probably not nearly as good as his ERA looks (albeit, still likely better than Wright, who is worse than his dERA suggests).
Note that none of the above numbers are park-adjusted. It might well be that some of Chacon's good ERA is due to his benefitting from the park and from the defense. I've been keeping track of the Yankees DIPS numbers all season and I think their defense has been, since about partway through the year, pretty competent (judged by comparing ERAs and dERAs).
I'm not sure I put any stock in his ability to prevent line drives with the current sample size.
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