Not that it really matters, but all the home/road matchups are reversed on these.

Bochy has a long history of not using the IBB against Bonds; that is one reason Bonds' career HR total is higher against the Padres than against anyone else. Before the series against StL started, a local columnist wrote that the Padres should not pitch to Pujols. Based on Games 1 and 2, I will be very interested to see how Bochy will deal with Pujols today.

As has been well-documented, the Padres hit much better on the road than at home. They are very capable of taking two games in St.Louis.

Before the post-season, I posted that one concern I had about the Padres being able to do much in post-season was Peavy's inconsistency, which I think is a function of the strain he puts on his shoulder with his motion and his excitability. If the Padres do force a Game 5 in San Diego, I will not be optimistic.

Oops. That was pretty ugly by Duncan.

Suppan wants no part of Michael.

If the Padres don't get something here, they're probably cooked.

Oh wow. Where was Piazza going??

Piazza bailed him out; swung at ball four. Oh, my God, Mike! How can you get PICKED OFF??? Where are you going??? What a debacle for the Padres . . . .

If the Padres don't win today they should be banned from the postseason for five years.

Robert, I suspect that with the young players the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are developing, the Padres may be subject to a de facto ban regardless of the outcome today.

That's some good stuff from Morgan on what the runner at first should be doing to avoid getting picked off -- and the replay on what Piazza did NOT do backed him up. Nice work.

Good Riddance, Placatebacks (Robert S.) Posted: October 07, 2006 at 01:28 PM (#2202081)

If the Padres don't win today they should be banned from the postseason for five years.
8. Sam M. Posted: October 07, 2006 at 01:31 PM (#2202084)

Robert, I suspect that with the young players the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are developing, the Padres may be subject to a de facto ban regardless of the outcome today.

Thanks, fellas. Very helpful.

Sorry, robinred. Just saying I think the bar's about to be raised out there. The Padres are going to have to get better just to keep up in the next few years.

But there's good news: I suspect the Giants are going to fall off the face of the Earth for a while.

Thanks, fellas. Very helpful.

I'm just annoyed that TLR, the man I strongly suspect who has done as much as anyone to hurt baseball over the last 20 years, looks like he's essentially going to receive a free pass to the LCS for the second year in a row. :(

Well, it looks like Young is determined to make sure it's NOT a free pass, anyway.

What's up w/ Jon Miller?

Pads break out this inning, I surmise.

Pads break out this inning, I surmise.

You mean they'll score more than one run?

That's some good stuff from Morgan on what the runner at first should be doing to avoid getting picked off

It was good stuff the first six or seven times he said it.

Haha, I'm good.

Sorry, robinred. Just saying I think the bar's about to be raised out there

Could be. The Padres bs'd incessantly about their prospects--Gautreau, Howard, Bozeid, Tankersley, Nady--but the only two that turned out to be worth much are Peavy and Barfield, leaving the Padres relying on many old guys (ones I like--Cameron, Roberts, Giles, Piazza, Williams,but still old guys) The trade with Texas helped them in terms of compensating for failed prospects.

But with Guzman already gone and Coletti running the show in LA, I am skeptical about the Dodgers building with youth. WRT to the Diamondbacks, the keys are Drew and Upton. If they hit their ceilings, look out. If not, well...I guess what I am saying is that LA and AZ are in good positions long-term, but I do not see a 90s Indians type group in place for either team.

I'm just annoyed that TLR, the man I strongly suspect who has done as much as anyone to hurt baseball over the last 20 years, looks like he's essentially going to receive a free pass to the LCS for the second year in a row. :(

I am with ya in many respects there.

Don't hit it to that guy, Eckstein.

It was good stuff the first six or seven times he said it.

Yes, saying it once (and then having the replay with Piazza) would have been enough.

Poor Mike. Even when he hits it hard, can't catch a break . . . .

Not to derail chatter for the game, but how exactly has LaRussa hurt baseball as much as anyone over the last 20 years? Introducing the LOOGY? Constant tinkering with the lineup? I can certainly buy that he's an overrated manager, but I don't really see how he's actively hurt the game.

This...might...be...a series.

And the Padres get themselves going!

Welcome to the postseason, San Diego!

And Young strikes out the side. Great trade by the Rangers.

Russell Branyan 2005: 202 AB, 0 3B
Russell Branyan 2006: 241 AB, 0 3B
Russell Branyan Playoffs: 10 AB, 2 3B

If the Padres do win this game, does Carpenter start game 4?

WTF was that double-clutch from Molina? If you didn't think you were going to get him (and he may not have, with the jump he had), then just keep it in your pocket.

If the Padres do win this game, does Carpenter start game 4?

I'm more curious as to who the Padres will run out there. They stated before the series that Woody Willians would likely get game 4, and that may be their best bet, or they can risk Peavy, who has been hit and miss this year, some really good games and some real stinkers. My bet is Woody.

Damn Piazza.. you need to do something to make up for that 1st inning.

LaRussa just confirmed that Carpenter will go tomorrow if they lose today in the dugout interview.

LaRussa just confirmed that Carpenter will go tomorrow if they lose today in the dugout interview.

Let's think about this with respect to the NLCS. It starts Wednesday, with Game 2 on Thursday and an off-day on Friday. If Carpenter pitches again in this series -- whether it's Game 4 tomorrow OR Game 5 Monday -- then he's probably not going to be ready until Game 3 of the NLCS next Saturday. I say that because even if he goes tomorrow, to pitch next Game 2 next Thursday would require him to pitch twice in a row on three days rest, and that seems a stretch to me. If LaRussa wants to try that, and it happens to be the Mets who are the opposition, I say, "Go right ahead."

I'd say LaRussa is making a mistake going with Carpenter tomorrow. Take a shot on not having to use Carpenter AT ALL again in this series, and thus having him available for Game 1. The difference between having him to start the series, and not having him until Game 3 (or having to use him again on short rest) is pretty profound.

Agreed.

"If every golf course in California is closed, I'm gonna come over and listen to that."

THAT is a great line! Well done, Joe.

Oy. Somehow, some way, you gotta challenge him there with what's-his-name on deck. ;-)

Walking Duncan to make Pujols the tying run at the plate is pretty dumb.

Here comes the most predicable game-tying homerun ever.

Game 1 was Tuesday. Game 4, if the Padres hold on, will be Sunday. Carpenter will be going on 4 days rest with a chance to close out the series.

Let's think about this with respect to the NLCS.

You are already thinking about the NLCS. LaRussa really can't worry about that yet.

Here comes a strikeout that catches Banta completely off guard.

Ye gods.

Not if Prince Albert is gonna chase that pitch. Nice work by Young.

Wow. That wasn't very Pujols-like.

Here comes the most predicable game-tying homerun ever.

Pardon me?

Well, if he HAD hit the homerun, then what I said would have been true.

...yeah, you heard me!

Piazza doubles.. nice.

The monster is somehwat out of the cage?

You are already thinking about the NLCS. LaRussa really can't worry about that yet.

If he isn't, he should be. Pitching Carpenter would contradict what he did on the last day of the regular season, when he held him out of a game that could have clinched the Central title, hoping he wouldn't need him (as he didn't, because the Astros lost) the next day in the potential make-up game v. the Giants. That gamble paid off, because it left Carpenter available (on extra rest) for THIS series. And he then did OK.

IOW, LaRussa played with the "house money" his lead over the Astros gave him. He should do the same here: he should play with the house money his lead over the Padres gives him. Sure, it could have backfired. If the Astros had beaten Smoltz and the Braves last Sunday, the Cards would have had to play the Giants (and use up Carpenter) on Monday. But the gamble paid off.

To beat the Mets (or the Dodgers, IMO), LaRussa needs to gamble again. Having Carpenter for Game 1 on long rest would be such a huge edge, just as it was in this series, he ought to play for it. That's the benefit of having the 2-1 lead, assuming there is a Game 4.

"Derek Jeter: Humanitarian. Leader. Athlete."

Oh, get ######, Movado.

Quick tangent: Does anyone else hear something strange about Jon Miller's voice, almost as if he's sick or hungover?

If he isn't, he should be

Disagree totally. Win the game/series you are playing is Rule #1 in post-season, particularly when you are in it with an 83-78 team. You need to realize, like you were saying about the Tiger/Yankee series, the Padres CAN beat the Cardinals three times in a row. This isn't the 100-62 Cards vs. the lucky-to-be 82-80 Padres of 2005. Right now, LaRussa needs to be thinking about one thing: beating the Padres.

Win the game/series you are playing is Rule #1 in post-season

According to whom? I was taught that Rule #1 was "Don't have Jeff Weaver pitch the first game of the NLCS if it can be avoided."

the Padres CAN beat the Cardinals three times in a row.

By the way, this is no less true if Carpenter pitches tomorrow.

Win the game/series you are playing is Rule #1 in post-season, particularly when you are in it with an 83-78 team. You need to realize, like you were saying about the Tiger/Yankee series, the Padres CAN beat the Cardinals three times in a row.

Is the goal to win this series, or win a championship? Of course the Padres can win three in a row. But it doesn't get the Cardinals to their ultimate goal if they prevent THAT from happening and then are screwed in the NLCS -- which I firmly believe they would be if Carpenter can't pitch until next Saturday.

Beyond that, I also think there is good reason to believe Carpenter would benefit from the extra day of rest before Game 5. You make a good point that I forgot he'll be on "full" rest even in Game 4. But late in the year, Carpenter was showing signs of real fatigue and lost effectiveness. When he had extra rest before Game 1 of this series, you saw the impact. Having an extra day would, I think, have positive impact. So if I'm LaRussa, I'm thinking that my chances of winning the game Carpenter starts are better if it's Game 5 than if it's Game 4. And if we can win Game 4 w/o ever having to start him, I get a double-bonus, because my chances of winning the NLCS just got much, much better.

You want to win a title? You got to roll the dice.

I'm not sure the "Game 1 pitcher" is as big of a deal in a seven-game series as it used to be, though. He's only going to make two starts in the NLCS regardless of where he's slotted.

Quick tangent: Does anyone else hear something strange about Jon Miller's voice, almost as if he's sick or hungover?

He's doing his fourth game in four days, and I think he's been in New York, Detroit, and St Louis in that period. He sounds like maybe he's got a cold or something to me.

If he's slotted third, they may lose before he ever gets a second chance to pitch.

He's only going to make two starts in the NLCS regardless of where he's slotted.

If his first start is in Game 3, there's a pretty good chance he's never going to get a second start.

According to whom?

I have read it/heard it said many places.

I was taught that Rule #1 was "Don't have Jeff Weaver pitch the first game of the NLCS if it can be avoided."

Getting to the NLCS is LaRussa's current issue. The undercurrent here seems to be "The Padres aren't really dangerous anyway, so LaRussa may as well start thinking about the Mets." Also, tomorrow is Carpenter's regular turn. I cannot see a good enough argument here for taking your ace off his regular turn with a chance to close out a playoff series in your home park.

Does anyone else hear something strange about Jon Miller's voice, almost as if he's sick or hungover?

He mentioned something about being under the weather earlier. I was surprised to hear them on the game today since they were in Detroit last night, but that's not a real long trip, either.

I'm happy to see Bochy with the quick hook on Chris Young, as he pitched one hell of a game today. Embree comes in to face Spiezio, a switch-hitter.

If he's slotted third, they may lose before he ever gets a second chance to pitch.

True, but they have to get two wins from someone else no matter where he pitches.

Of course, they could still win today, and put him in line to pitch on Wednesday regardless.

He mentioned something about being under the weather earlier. I was surprised to hear them on the game today since they were in Detroit last night, but that's not a real long trip, either.

He has been traveling like crazy, so I'm not surprised either. I was trying to make sure it wasn't a problem with my speakers.

Is the goal to win this series, or win a championship?

Uhh, you can't do one without the other.

Carpenter was showing signs of real fatigue and lost effectiveness. When he had extra rest before Game 1 of this series, you saw the impact. Having an extra day would, I think, have positive impact.

If LaRussa and Carpenter both believe this, then, well, maybe. But the point is that strategy is being implemented to maximize the chances to win this series--which, obviously, is what LaRussa needs to do.

The undercurrent here seems to be "The Padres aren't really dangerous anyway, so LaRussa may as well start thinking about the Mets."

Absolutely not. The point I am making is exactly the same point I was making (you could look it up) about whether the Cardinals should start Carpenter last Sunday in the final regular season game, or hold him back. I said, "HOLD HIM BACK." You need him to start Game 1 of the NLDS, and if the Astros lose you might not need him again in the regular season. It has nothing to do with the Padres being dangerous (or not), or thining ahead to the Mets (or the Dodgers), or anything but the chance to take advantage of the lead in the "standings" (here, being ahead in the series) to set your rotation up and have your ace well-rested.

Don't read into my argument anything that's not there. I'm being 100% consistent, and would say the same thing regardless of which teams were involved.

FWIW, I think LaRussa has to pitch Carpenter in Game 4 if San Diego wins today. While I doubt the transition from one pitcher's park to another is the end of the world in this case, Carpenter has been significantly less hittable at home in '06 and is on regular rest.

Sam, if they hold back Carpenter, who do they pitch for Game 4? They're already stretching out the bullpen today, thanks to a short exit from Suppan. Weaver and Suppan obviously can't go. That leaves Anthony Reyes, a young pitcher who got bombed in his final start of the year and was complaining of dead arm as they limped into the playoffs...

...or Jason Marquis. Please don't tell me you would subject Cardinal fans to the horror of Jason Marquis starting a critical playoff game.

I do think they can be guilty of looking ahead in this case though. They aren't facing the Brewers, they're facing a division champ. I don't know the answers but I'm interested in the discussion.

Question: Who is tomorrow's starter if it isn't Carpenter?

The best argument for saving Carpenter is who pitches Game 5 if Cris loses Game 4. Then is it Weaver on three days' rest in Game 5? Or some guy who hasn't been good enough to appear in the series so far? I'd probably want to avoid that.

The point I am making is exactly the same point I was making (you could look it up) about whether the Cardinals should start Carpenter last Sunday in the final regular season game, or hold him back. I said, "HOLD HIM BACK." You need him to start Game 1 of the NLDS, and if the Astros lose you might not need him again in the regular season.

Well, I'm not sure when you posted that, but if it was after the Cardinals had clinched a tie even if they lost the makeup game which never happened, it was a different situation.

Don't read into my argument anything that's not there. I'm being 100% consistent, and would say the same thing regardless of which teams were involved.

OK, I am sure you are arguing in good faith--you always do. But let me ask this: If the Dodgers beat the Mets tonight, do you want Randolph to manage Game 4 with an eye towards the NLCS the Mets will not be assured of being in yet? Of course, with Hernandez and Martinez gone, the dynamic of that series is different, but the question holds.

Sam, if they hold back Carpenter, who do they pitch for Game 4?

That depends on Reyes. Reyes has now had a lot of rest for that "dead arm." Now, if LaRussa knows that rest hasn't done much or any good, then that is a very strong argument for going with Carpenter because there is no other good choice. Carpenter then Weaver on short rest beats the heck out of nobody then Carpenter.

My argument is that if you have a reasonable choice for Game 4, then you have a "better" Carpenter for Game 5 than you would for Game 4 (because of the extra day of rest). That edge makes it worth taking the chance, in the hope of winning Game 4 w/o Carpenter and thus hitting the jackpot for the NLCS. But then, I'm a risk-taker on things like this -- if you have an ultimate goal, you set your strategy in a way that maximizes your chance of achieving it, not of achieving some interim goal along the way.

But -- that said -- if they DON'T have a reasonable choice other than Carpenter for Game 4, then the calculation changes completely. Then, to put ALL their eggs in the Game 5 basket is too risky, AND they are too likely to have to use Carpenter anyway before the NLCS, so the benefit I've been arguing for wouldn't be realized. If Reyes isn't reasonably ready, then they have to go with Carpenter.

SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO~! TAGUCHI!

I'm not sure when you posted that, but if it was after the Cardinals had clinched a tie even if they lost the makeup game which never happened, it was a different situation.

All weekend, pretty much. Before they clinched a tie, and then after, too. I said that as long as they had the possibility to get it clinched w/o using Carpenter, they should hold off using him.

If the Dodgers beat the Mets tonight, do you want Randolph to manage Game 4 with an eye towards the NLCS the Mets will not be assured of being in yet? Of course, with Hernandez and Martinez gone, the dynamic of that series is different, but the question holds.

Well, I don't know what decision Willie could face that would be parallel, but yes -- if there were one that he could make that would reduce somewhat his chances of winning Game 4 (say, resting Beltran's aching quad and Floyd's Achilles) in the hope he could give those guys several days off before next Wednesday -- but then knowing they might have to play a Game 5 (and that they'll be a little refreshed in Game 5 if it happens)? Go for it, Willie.

I want to win it ALL, not just the NLDS. Give me the combination of moves that maximizes the Mets' chances in both series' combined, not just the one in front of us now.

Linebrink needed some help from Eckstein there.

Pujols can tie it here.

Good lord, how many times are the Padre pitchers going to walk hitters to make Pujols the tying run???? Sheesh.

Just setting up the double play...

Or end the inning with a GIDP.

And so it is.

God grounds into a DP....

Yeah, Joe, all-time leader in saves, all-time leader in home runs...it's all the same.

So do you think LaRussa will drop Pujols to 8th in the batting order tomorrow? ;-)

Give me the combination of moves that maximizes the Mets' chances in both series' combined, not just the one in front of us now.


Fair enough, but I disagree. You do what you have to do within reason to win what is front of you in October. There are not enough tomorrows to do otherwise.

This has been a LOB-fest for the Padres, hasn't it? Wow . . .

This is a looong inning.

This has been a LOB-fest for the Padres, hasn't it? Wow . . .

Now at 14.

Trevor time.

And there will be baseball tomorrow!

OK, we've got us an NLDS now . . . . Hopefully, only ONE of them. That's enough for this season.

So if the Mets and Tigers win, do the Cards-Padres wait until evening to play?

Anthony Reyes is not on the NLDS roster. If Carpenter doesn't start Game 4, then he's starting Game 5.