Twenty Games over .500

With their 7-4 win over the Blue Jays, the Cubs are now 45-25, a .642 record.  That pencils out to 104 wins over a full season.

I don’t need to tell anyone that his is unusual for the Cubs.  But let’s look at the post-war Cubs teams that have reached that mark.

2004:  The last time the Cubs hit the 20 games over mark.  They reached it on September 24th, going 86-66 by completing a three game sweep over the Pirates in PNC Park.  Greg Maddux got his 15th win.  The team reached its high mark the following day, with a come-from-behind win at Shea Stadium against the Mets.  From there, they went 2-7 and blew their chances at the post-season.

1998:  The Cubs won 4-3 in San Diego in 10 innings to achieve an 87-67 record on September 17th, the one day that season they were 20 games over .500.  From there, they wandered bass-ackwards into a post-season berth, going 2-6 against the Reds, Brewers and Astros, while their rivals’ incompetence forced a one game playoff against the Giants.  They finished with a 90-73 record, the only time the Cubs have reached 90 wins in the last nineteen seasons.

1989:…

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The Cream Rises to the Top?

Doc Nabbit observes:

I just checked the Cubs standings after tonight’s when and noticed something.  With a record of 32-21, they’ve completed 53 games.

53 games. . .. 53 games. . 53 games.  .That sounds familiar - and not just because I typed it up 4 types. 

- Oh, I know!  That’s how many games they played last year at their nadir.  That was around the time Piniella got in an ump’s face with as much passion as an individual can possibly muster (yet also as little eroticism).  They went 63-46 the rest of the regular season.  With this year’s start, they are now 95-67 in their last 162 regular season games. 

When was the last time they played that well?  From Sept 1, 2003 to 9/7/04 they were 93-69.  Close, but no cigar.  They had the same record from 8/22/03 to 8/26/04.  Also 7/26/03 to 7/30/04.  Not then I guess. 

They won 88 games in 2000, but ended terribly in 2000, and also ended badly in 2001, making any 2001-2 combos tricky. 

They came close again in 1998-9, but couldn’t keep their early season groove going long enough in ‘99. 

They won 93 in 1989, so there should be some…

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Right and Wrong—April 28, 2008

Since the last snapshot on April 11th, the Cubs settled into a pretty good month:

Record: 16-9 (10-6 since 11Apr08)
Runs Scored: 145.  Runs Allowed:  105
Team OPS+: 120.  Team ERA+:  116.

What’s Gone Right Since Last Time:

Virtually the entire position roster (Soto, Theriot, Ramirez, Johnson, Cedeño, Fukudome, and Lee) getting or staying red hot.

The team continuing to draw walks at a jaw-dropping rate (113 in 25 games; on a pace to draw 732).

Zambrano keeping it up with game scores of 57, 65 and 68.

Much of the starting staff righting the ship (Lilly with a 43 game score, followed by 60 and 61, Marquis with a 48, followed by 62 and 55, Rich Hill with 58 and 52).

Kerry Wood settling in nicely (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HR in 6 appearances).

What’s Gone Wrong Since Last Time:

Not much.

Dempster coming back to earth a bit (game scores of 44, 46 and 61).

Howry giving up a lot of hits and paying for it (7 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 HR in 7 appearances).

Wuertz with some weak performances after a strong start (5 IP,…

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Right and Wrong—11 April 2008

Having made more than their share of defensive and baserunning gaffes, the Cubs have looked worse so far than their statisitics, including their W/L record, might indicate.

Record:  6-3
Runs Scored:  49 Runs Allowed:  43
Team OPS+:  111 Team ERA+:  113

What’s gone right so far:

Kusoke Fukudome (.371/.488/.543, and carrying himself with an air of competence refreshing to see in a Cub outfielder)
Derrek Lee (.300/.370/.625—nice to see the power early in the season from a guy not known for his fast starts)
Geovany Soto (.333/.410/.667, and picking up where he left off last year)
Carlos Zambrano (1.32 ERA, with 1 BB and 12 K in 13 2/3 IP)
Ryan Dempster (0.69 ERA in two starts)
Carlos Marmol (1 BB and 7 K in 7 IP)

What’s gone wrong so far:

Alfonso Soriano (.163/.234/.256, a black hole at the top of the order)
Felix Pie (.182/.217/.182, with a tenuous hold on his job)
Ryan Theriot (.250/.333/.281)
Ted Lilly (9.72 ERA)
Rich Hill (5.00 ERA, and didn’t look very good in his quality start)
Jason Marquis (one poor start reminiscent of late last season)
Bobby Howry (8.44 ERA, 1 K in 6 appearances)

If there is anything to be concerned about…

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Opening Day Roster

The Cubs Opening Day roster is now set.

Probably the most striking feature is the 13-man position roster’s heavy right-handedness:  the Cubs will have two left-handed hitters starting regularly, Fukudome and Pie, with Pie likely to be in some sort of platoon with Reed Johnson.  This has been something of a trend in recent Cubs rosters.  On top of that, only two of the five bench players hit left-handed (Ward and Fontenot).  With a heavily right-handed lineup, the Cubs have also managed to assemble a pretty weak righty bench: Blanco, Cedeño and Johnson.  I don’t see this being a stable situation, but I think we are starting the season with a bench that will create some problems. Déjá vu all over again.

Interestingly, the roster has exactly one switch hitter.  Guess who?

I’m not happy with Dempster and Marquis filling in the back end of the starting rotation, but it could be a lot worse, and I think there will be opportunities for better options to pitch their way onto the rotation.  Marquis kept his job last season due to some fine performances in April and May.  If he pulls the same thing off this year, I will try to bite…

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2008 Chicago Cubs Preview: One Hundred Years of Suckitude

Nobody here needs to be reminded the Cubs last won a world series in 1908.  But you will be.  Repeatedly.  By everybody.  All season long.  That tired storyline should be made easier to stomach by one of the best baseball teams the organization has rolled out in the past half century or so.  Of course, that time span includes all of four 90 win ball clubs.  Embrace the century of futility knowing your optimism is a little less unfounded than usual.

The 2007 season featured a host of surprises both pleasant and otherwise.  The Cubs made several big gambles on the free agent market which all paid dividends in year one, guessed the foreign object in Jason Kendall’s back was not – in fact – a fork, hoped the LSU middle infield combo could hit at the major league level and stuck with Jacque Jones through his atrocious first half.  Not everything came up Cubs.  Michael Barrett’s hitting collapsed and a fistfight with Carlos Zambrano punched his ticket out of town, the middle infield combo from LSU never did hit, Felix Pie’s debut earned him a reprise at Iowa and Ryan Dempster forgot what happens to high fastballs in the low…

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Do We Need another Hero? Beyond Fukudome

My old man used to say that he was a big fan of Congressional gridlock, because a government that doesn’t do anything is better than one that does.  In some ways, I feel the same way about the Cubs this off-season, who pledged to stand pat, and have not strayed too far from that plan.  The 2007 Cubs were a decent team, and were a good bet to improve even if no changes were made.

It looks like there will be one significant move, however, and perhaps others.  First, the Cubs have signed Kosuke Fukudome to a four-year contract.  Fukudome is most likely to become the every day right fielder, although he comes with a reputation for being able to handle center.  This is, no matter how you look at it, an upgrade.  Jones was defensively versatile as well, but not as good a hitter, particularly in the OBP department, and his platoon splits were usually awful.  The acquisition of Fukudome further marginalizes Matt Murton, whom we now have to guess is slated for a trade.  Fukudome is probably a significantly better player than Murton as well, although at a price an order of magnitude higher, and clearly not a better…

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Baseball America Rates the Cubs

Baseball America ranks the top ten Cubs prospects:

Topping the list is the Cubs’ first round draftee in 2007: high school third baseman Josh Vitters.  I’m very excited about Vitters and his potential but I can’t see ranking him ahead of Soto who is major league ready.

The eye-roller on this list is the high ranking of Tyler Colvin who is fourth; one position below his 2006 rating.  Colvin hit for average and a little pop but is far from a well-rounded player.  The idea that anyone would prefer him to, well, anybody on this list is difficult for me to believe.

The biggest surprise for me was Jose Ceda.  Ceda showed fantastic K rates this year (69 Ks in 50 innings) but walked a ton of hitters and is very far away from the major leagues.  Ceda was the return for Todd Walker in 2006.

The noteable absence is Eric Patterson (rated 6th last season) who hit .297/.362/.455 in AAA Iowa.  At first glance it appears to be a step back from his 2006 batting line of .343/.382/.478 at the the same level but he increased his walk rate and power.  Patterson’s glove did not appear to make any strides…

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Just a little piece of paper, coated with chlorophyll…

After the long and troublesome courtship that was the 2007 Cubs season, its sudden demise leaves me a bit stunned.  After all of those ups and downs, I feel a bit like Ray Charles in the song “Greenbacks.”

Anyway, the regular season was a lot more interesting than the playoff, so as we start our post-mortem, let’s take a bit of a poll:

1. Who was the MVP of the 2007 Cubs?

2. Who had the most negative impact on the 2007 Cubs?

3. What player should the Cubs focus on for the 2008 season, either as a free agent, or by trade?  I’m talking realistically…

4. Who on the Cubs current roster absolutely, positively has to go?

5. What rookieish player will make the biggest impact on the 2008 Cubs?

6. Jim Hendry:  Should they fire him or not?

7. What game represented the absolute low point for the 2007 Cubs?

8. What game represented the absolute high point for the 2007 Cubs?

9. Lou Piniella: Thumbs up, or thumbs down?

10. Biggest pleasant surprise of 2007?

11. Biggest unpleasant surprise of 2007?

12. 2008 Cubs: better than the 2007 team, or worse?

It’s Never Gonna Happen

I’m going to write something that so personal and deep-felt, that I’ve rarely said it aloud and (to my failing memory) have never said in print—a conclusion I came to about 20 years ago and have never truly wavered from since, in both good times and bad.  I am very afraid to even utter this, let alone type it for posterity, but here it is:

I do not believe that the Chicago Cubs will ever win a World Series in my lifetime. (I’m 40 years old, for the record.)

There are several reasons I’ve been afraid to say this.  What does it say about me?  If I am such a true fan, why don’t I have any faith?  Throughout the last several decades, millions of Cubs fans—both living and dead—have shown an enduring faith that their beloved will one day bring home a championship.  Cubs fans’ faith is legendary, to the point of being a feature of caricature.  Heck, it’s one of the things that causes many folks to root against the Cubs.  What reaction will my friends and family have when they hear that I do not share their faith?  Will I be disowned and scorned?

For that matter, if…

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Four word post

They weren’t good enough.

Is that all there is?

No, it’s not time to don teased blonde wigs and imitate Peggy Lee.  Not just yet.  Teams do lose the first two games of five game series on the road, and then go on to win.  Not often, but it happens.  The Cubs have been on the other end of it, as a matter of fact.

This Division Series could turn out to be a microcosm of the Cubs’ entire season, one where they entered with reasonable hopes, fell far behind, and pulled themselves together and won the division. We’ve seen many of this team’s worst tendencies in these two losses—the flailing mindlessly at the plate, the poorly timed bullpen lapses—but if they have shown any tendency this season at all it’s an ability to snap out of it when they need to.  The Cubs might not be that good, but they aren’t this bad either.

As the game was entering its fourth hour last night, I had had enough and went to bed, figuring that if the Cubs managed to come back from the 8-4 deficit, I would gladly take the outcome for the burn of having missed it.  The Cubs didn’t score again, completing what was overall a pretty…

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So here we are!

This season has been unique for the Cubs and their fans, in ways that make it hard to believe that they actually ended up on top. Amazingly, the 2007 Cubs spent 69 of their pre-All Star Break game days with a record below .500, including the entire period between May 9th and June 27th.  Sorry folks, but once a Cubs team is down like that, they aren’t supposed to get back up.  The 1984 Cubs had a sub-.500 record on one day.  The 1989 team, three days.  The 1998 Cubs, one.  The 2003 team dipped to one game below .500 on three days, all in July.  Even the close-but-no-cigar 2001 and 2004 teams were under .500 for no more than three or four days.  Only one of these playoffs-or-close teams was ever as many as two games under .500: the 2001 Cubs, who started the season 0-2.  The 2007 Cubs were nine games under .500 on June 2nd, and played .578 ball (63-46) in the subsequent 109 games.

Of course, the team was lucky—the 85-77 result from that would usually result in nothing more than a pat on the back and optimism for next year.  But I repeat:  the Cubs played…

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3.5 Games Up!

Perhaps NTNGod has grown weary of posting NL Central updates, so I’ll post my own Cubs-centric thoughts here.

On August 1st, the Cubs entered into a first place tie in the NL Central.  They followed that up with a 3-10 stretch, but they only lost 1.5 games in the standings, thanks to the Brewers stinking it up nearly as badly.  Unless a serious reversal of fortune occurs in the remaining seven days, a possibility I do not discount, I think we can look back at that failure to capitilize as the key failure in the Brewers season.  Since then, the Cubs have not been more than a game behind in the standings.

Since August 1st, the Cubs are a whopping 2 games over .500.  Okay, that doesn’t tell the whole story: the Cubs were not good in August, and have been wonderful in September.  They are now 15-8 in the month, with six games to go.  It will be hard for them to match their 19-8 September of 2003, their best September since 1935, but so far they’ve been a juggernaut.  The Brewers’ 12-9 has not been enough.

Brewers fans are familiar with the story behind today’s loss in Atlanta in…

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Lest we forget…

The Cubs have nine games left, with what appears to be a weak schedule ahead of them, one game ahead in the division standings.

On September 24, 2004, the Cubs had nine games left, a mostly weak schedule ahead (two against the Mets, who were terrible, four against the Reds, who were terrible, and three against the NL East leaders, the Braves), and were a game up in the wild card.

We all know what happened in 2004.  Actually, I know less about it than you do, because I was in South Africa, with only occasional access to the internet and box scores.  The Cubs lost seven of those nine games, and the Astros won seven of their remaining eight...and the rest is history.

Could it happen again?  Sure it could.  It just might.  Heading into that horrible stretch in 2004, the Cubs had just completed a 13-3 run, albeit against a very weak field of competition.  The Cubs have been a solid 12-8 so far in September, having righted the ship after a poor August.  But we know that this team is capable of playing very badly, having seen many examples of it this season.

That 2004 team was odd.…

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Carlos Zambrano:  What the…???

Carlos Zambrano entered this season as the disputable ace of the starting rotation.  This came on the heels of another solid year, albeit one where he led the league in walks.

His season so far can be divided into three distinguishable parts:  The Bad Start, The Great Comeback, and The Wheels Falling off the Cart Again.

The Bad Start consists of his first twelve appearances, where he threw 73.2 IP, gave up 83 H, 13 HR, walked 34 and and struck out 51, going 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA.  His highest game score was 66, and he broke 60 only three times.  He managed only four quality starts in that period, which ended with the infamous fight with Michael Barrett.  This stretch included extensive discussion about alterations in his mechanics, which were typical for someone battling some kind of injury.

After that, Zambrano had a period of eleven starts where he was excellent.  If not for Piniella pulling him after five innings in a 12-1 victory against the Giants, he would have made eleven straight quality starts. He threw 76.2 IP, gave up 38 (!!) H, 4 HR, walked 31 and struck out 77, going 9-2 with a 1.41 ERA.  His…

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Cubs Sign First Round Pick

Cubs Welcome Vitters to Family

Vitters signed for $3.2 million, and will report to Mesa, Ariz., and join the Cubs’ Rookie League team, and hopefully get to the team’s Boise team before its season is over. Before he goes, though, he will take batting practice with the big league team on Friday at Wrigley Field.

Carlos Gomez breaks down the swing of Vitters (and others) here.  Carlos doesn’t like the way Vitters goes after the ball in the front of the zone.  I had a brief email exchange with him a few weeks back; he expressed a concern that this habit is not an easy one to break.  For my part, I love the short swing.  He may never threaten 40 homers with his abbreviated cut but I think it makes him a better bet to adjust to wood bats and real breaking balls.  Perhaps too many of the Corey Patterson and Jose Hernandez swing-types arriving from Chicago’s minor league system have jaded me.

I also approve of the new signing deadline because it brings the draft picks into the minor league systems more quickly.  There is no adequate substitute for that kind of experience.  Furthermore, no first round picks went…

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National League Strength of Schedule

Creating an accurate view of the prospective strength of schedule for the National League requires something of an adjustment rather than a flat comparison of upcoming opponents’ win percentage. To this end, I’ve slapped something together which replaces team win percentage with a more accurate indicator which accounts for the unbalanced schedules. This can be done by eliminating inter-league games and making a divisional adjustment: compile a team’s record within their own division and slice it in half. Our Unbalanced Schedule Adjustment system may not totally negate the schedule issues but it should create a more accurate picture of opponent strength than simple win percentage. For example: the Cubs are (as of Monday August 6th) 58-52. Their inter-league record was 8-4 and their record within the NL Central stands at 24-20. The Cubs’ USA comes out to 38-38 after subtracting the 8-4 play against the American League and subtracting 12 wins and 10 losses from divisional play. The second step is to multiply out those USAs (the acronym is unintentional, I promise) against the number of times a team will be faced. The USA win percentage of the team’s upcoming opponents shakes out thusly:

CHC:   .459
MIL:   .462
NYM:   .490
STL:…

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A disquieting quiet

What do you know, July is about to end, and the Cubs find themselves in the thick of the pennant race.  One advantage the Cubs should have at this point is the financial flexibility to improve their roster as they finish the backstretch, as they did in previous years of contention, notably adding Fred McGriff in 2001, Aramis Ramirez in 2003, and Nomar Garciaparra in 2004.

So am I the only one a bit surprised at the relative silence on the rumor front?  Sure, there are occasional mentions of the Cubs, but none of it seems serious – the musings this weekend about Griffey can’t be more than team notes filler, and Will Carroll’s mention of Pie, Veal and Jones for Dontrelle Willis comes across as rather silly.  Yet, despite a hot streak unlike any we’ve seen in recent memory, this team has some pretty obvious holes to fill.  A steady and reliable starter would be nice, a reliever, a catcher who can either hit or play defense, a bench guy with right-handed power…

The bullpen was a serious problem for the first two months of the season, and the Cubs have to be worried about it regressing.  Guys like Dotel…

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Something in the Water at Iowa?

Some perspective on what’s going on in Des Moines (and elsewhere) from Pops Freshenmeyer:

The Iowa Cubs have terrorized the rest of the PCL from the batter’s box.  The AAA club leads the league in runs, home runs, slugging and OPS.  The good news for the parent club is that the .290/.351/.470 team output has largely been produced by younger talent.  The omnipresent challenge for properly evaluating any minor league performance is the issue of context and, unfortunately, the PCL has the reputation of skewing toward hitters. 
There is reason to believe that more is at work here than purely context-driven statistical inflation.  Minorleaguesplits.com lists a league wide OPS of .758 in 2006 but that has jumped to something closer to .780 so far in 2007.  The Iowa Cubs have surpassed the previous two season OPS marks of .752 and .734 with an impressive .821.  Demolishing the ball has not been an annual tradition for the Iowa Cubs.  They have dramatically out-produced previous incarnations as well as the present competition. What’s more, the hitters have produced despite playing in a pitchers’ park (973, 985, 980 park factors the last three years).  There is good reason to hope for the position players…

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Hurrah For Selective Endpoints!

Dag Nabbit observes:

Here’s something you might be interesting.  My title for it is: “Hurrah for Selective Endpoints!” It’s gives the Wins, Losses, and Pct for all MLB teams since the conclusion of June 3 (in other words not including 6/3 itself).  Guess which team is on top?  (Though if you want a nice, cozy, familiar feeling, you’re also a fan of the team with the worst W/L record in that period). 

Lg	Div	Team	W	L	Pct
N	C	CHC	25	12	0.676
A	C	DET	23	12	0.657
A	W	SEA	24	13	0.649
A	E	NYY	22	14	0.611
A	W	LAA	20	14	0.588
N	C	MIL	20	15	0.571
A	C	MIN	21	17	0.552
N	W	COL	19	16	0.543
A	W	TEX	19	16	0.543
A	C	CLE	20	17	0.541
N	W	LAD	20	17	0.541
N	E	PHI	19	17	0.528
A	E	TOR	19	17	0.528
N	C	STL	18	17	0.514
A	C	KCR	18	17	0.514
N	W	SDP	18	17	0.514
N	E	ATL	18	19	0.486
A	E	BOX	18	19	0.486
N	E	FLO	17	19	0.472
A	W	OAK	17	21	0.447
N	C	PIT…

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Soto Gets Call; Pie Back to Iowa / McDonough Speaks

Sun-Times Linky

Ok, I get why they would want to call up Soto—he’s been great in the PCL this season.

I also get why they would send Pie down—he’s not hitting and needs to get the ABs.

What I don’t get is why the did these as corresponding moves, especially when all they’ve talked about for the last few weeks is how they need to add another pitcher. 

And why have three catchers, two of whom are just catch-and-throw guys?  I guess that they may be concerned that Koyie Hill is out of options, but so what?  If they lose him to a waiver claim, I’m not going to storm the Tribune Tower or anything.

Nevertheless, talk is that they will recall Billy Petrick this weekend.  Who knows what happens next?  Stay tuned.

In other news, Bruce Miles recently interviewed Cubs President john McDonough here’s a link

Cubs and Brewers in the Second Half

It’s the All Star Break, and coming off a 21-12 stretch, their best since the 2004 season, the Cubs are in contention.  This is a welcome change from last season, when they were all but eliminated before the weather even got warm, or even from a month ago.  Their 44-43 record is unimpressive, but it’s fair to say that they have extricated themselves from what looked like a pretty deep hole.  They trail the leading Brewers by a respectable 4.5 games, and more importantly, are alone in second place, with the usual suspects (St. Louis and Houston) wallowing in the rear view mirror.  Two months ago, the Cubs were a game over .500, and the Brewers were at their high point for the season, at 14 games over .500.  The two teams had similar RS/RA numbers (146/112 for the Cubs, 169/132 for the Brewers).  Since May 9th, the Cubs are once more a game over .500, but the Brewers went 25-29, again, with both teams perhaps regressing to the mean in the RS/RA department (250/256 for the Cubs, 261/258 for the Brewers).

I wouldn’t bet the farm on the Cardinals being out of it, but I think most people see a…

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Do the Cubs need a nap?

We need to create a standard intro for any new post on GCB that apologizes for the lack of posts.  It’ll save us some time if we don’t have to type it up every post.  Personally, I’ve been traveling so much it’s been hard to follow the team this year.  I haven’t seen a game in person yet, and I haven’t seen that many more on TV.  I still think this is a talented team that’s having some bad luck at the moment (finally, a 1 run win!). 

Anyhow, a couple of quotes from Lou over the past couple of days have caught my eye.  First, Lou said this about Michael Barrett:

“It has been a tough couple of weeks [for Barrett],” manager Lou Piniella said Wednesday. “I have confidence in him. I’m going to rest him a little more.”

Then, he said this (and I’m going to completely ignore the Zambrano story in that link):

Piniella said he will give Jacque Jones a brief “rest” to try to get him to relax

Both guys are having off years, and I know we’ve had plenty of threads saying we need to dump Jones (and more have been creeping up about Barrett…

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Gameplans

Ok, we’ve seen and heard countless people, including Lou Piniella, talk about how things have to change.  We’ve read many people say open-ended and meaningless things like “trade Player X”—the kind of proposals that I normally can’t stand, particularly when the speaker doesn’t have a definite suggestion in mind.  Many of the folks who say things like “trade Corey Patterson!” are the same folks who will later say “who the heck are Nate Spears and Carlos Perez?  Hendry should have gotten more!”

A few days ago, Bruce Miles wrote a column on how Lou might shake things up, offering the usual things (bring up Pie, trade Jones for anything you can get, find more playing time for Theriot, etc.) None of his proposals seem particularly radical.

It seems to me that what the team needs to do is something fairly dramatic, something that sends a message to the team yet doesn’t put up a white flag on the season.  I hate to make such proposals, but I’m about to do it anyway.

I would suggest the Cubs see what it would take to get Jerrod Saltalamacchia—would they trade him for Rich Hill?  Better still, how about giving them both a leading…

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“Just when I thought that I was in they pull me back out!”

I’ve been thinking of things to write about lately.  Just yesterday, I had what I thought was a good idea.  I planned to write two mini-columns.  The first one was going to be optimistic, pointing to all the reasons why the team still has a chance at the playoffs, how it’s still relatively early, and why there is still hope despite their lousy play over the last few weeks.  The second one was going to be pessimistic, talking about how there are some disturbing things we’re seeing and how this team is not only playing lousy and making stupid mistakes, but is ultimately flawed in its roster construction.

That was yesterday.

Tonight, I look back to last season and to 2005.  It was toward the end of 2005 that I realized that I was getting myself too emotionally invested into the day-to-day events of a team that ultimately doesn’t deserve my attention.  It was in the offseason before 2006 that I vowed to start watching a new team (the Devil Rays), just so I can get some happiness back to watching games without the emotional sturm und drang that comes with following the Cubs. 

The most difficult part was Opening Day…

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May Observances

It’s been too long since I rapped at ‘ya, and for that I apologize.  I wanted to set up an open discussion thread, but to kick things off, let me give a few off-the-cuff observations and thoughts:

I like Lou so far.  Quite a bit, actually.  He’s espousing plate discipline, he’s trying to play everyone, and he’s been willing to shake things up now and then (perhaps too often, but that’s another issue).  What I’m particularly impressed with is that on several occasions, he’s visited the mound directly to talk to his pitcher and pump him up, without sending Rothschild and without intending to lift the pitcher.  Sometimes (ok, usually) he’s delivered a tongue-lashing, particularly to Dempster and Cotts, but the talks have generally had the desired effect.

What’s more, Lou isn’t afraid to place blame where it is due.  Take, for instance, the game in which Lou complained that he had a reliever (Ohman) throwing “30 to 40 foot curveballs” and that he can see why this team has been losing as long as it has.  Would these frank words come from Dusty or any other Cub manager in recent memory?

I also like the fact that he’s growing impatient…

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Week One Observations

One can’t judge much from one week, but we are starting to get a feel for this new Cubs team and perhaps get some sense of what’s to come.  I’ll list a few of my thoughts thus far, and please post yours.

Lou Piniella:  Clearly, Piniella is going to be a different sort of manager than what we have grown accustomed to over the last several years.  First, there was his brief visit to the mound on Wednesday, where he apparently gave Ryan Dempster advice along the lines of “throw a ####### strike.” I don’t know that this managerial strategy is effective, but it was good to see.  Then, this afternoon we had the bizarre, mid-intentional walk visit to the mound, where he signaled something unintelligible to the bullpen as he made the slow walk, and then said a couple of things before turning around and walking slowly back to the dugout.  I have no idea what he was doing, but I have to wonder if it had something to do with Michael Barrett’s two passed balls in the previous at-bat, followed by his rather frenetic posture while receiving the IBB?  Any guesses as to what the hell he was doing?…

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Your turn

So between the Looking Forward preview and this piece on Gonfalon Cubs, you’ve seen more than your share of what I think about the Cubs’ chances in 2007.

I don’t claim to have any special insight, so have at it:  what’s your call for the Cubs’ 2007 season?  I think making a precise win/loss projection is about as meaningful as calling the pocket on a roulette wheel, but just for fun, what’s your bullseye projection?  Feel free to add any other insights, rants, or prognostications.  Hell, write your own prospectus and post it here.

I’ll start with mine:  82-80, for reasons outlined elsewhere in gory detail.

Also, if you have any predictions about individual players or anything else, throw them out there.  Here is your chance to have your spot-on projections documented for all posterity!

A Revised Look at Roster Follies

Back in January, Andere took a guess at the Cubs’ opening day roster.  Since spring training is winding down and opening day is just around the corner, I figured now would be a good time to look and see how the final roster will shake out.

Taking a quick step back, I’m sure most regulars know me already.  I was added to this blog a couple of months ago, but haven’t had anything to add until now.  I’m sure I’ll post much more regularly once the season starts and I’m more focused on baseball.  I took a stroll by Wrigley this past weekend, and noticed that the stadium doesn’t exactly look ready for the start of the season quite yet (sorry, no picture).  The sidewalk on Addison/Sheffield has been torn up and has not been replaced yet.  Hopefully, that’s not some sort of omen for the Cubs’ season (again, I’m sorry, I’m new at this).

In today’s Trib, Dave van Dyck takes a look at the spring training battles and it seemed like a good starting point for this discussion.  It sounds like most of the spots are spoken for at this point.  Quoting the article in some detail:

The bullpen…

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