7.42% - So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Today’s Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds gives the Cubs a 7.42% chance at making the playoffs this year and a 5.58% chance at winning the NL Central.  After a day when nothing went wrong for the Cubs (a.k.a., an off day), I found myself wondering what exactly has to happen for the Cubs to reverse choke this season.  The Cubs are sitting 8 games behind the Cards entering play today, but only 6 in the loss column.  The Cards are currently on pace for around 92 or 93 wins (BPro’s average puts them at 92), so for this exercise let’s assume the Cubs have to win 94.  There are 40 games left, which means the Cubs would have to go 32-8 to finish with 94 wins, or 31-9 to tie at 93 wins.  Let’s assume the latter, leaving the Cubs and Cards to play a make up game, time and place TBD.

In this scenario, the Cubs pretty much have to sweep the Cards in the 3 game set 9/18-20 in St. Louis.  This gives the Cubs 37 other games to make up 5 games.  The Cubs have a very favorable home stretch starting tonight, with the Nats, Mets, and Astros all…

Gregg out as closer; Too little, too late?

What we’ve long expected has finally happened: Kevin Gregg is no longer the closer.  Last night he blew his third save of the month - and sixth overall - and allowed his twelfth home run.  The Cubs have fallen 6 behind the Cards with just over 6 weeks left in the season.  Is this move even going to make a difference? 

Not to let Gregg off the hook, but last night’s loss can also be blamed on the offense, which has reverted back to their April form.  There are still individuals who are hitting well - Lee, Fox, Fukudome, and Baker - but as a team they’re struggling.  Games like last night are the reasons we hear Jim Hendry talking about needing more clutch hitters.  The pitching, outside of the bullpen, has been pretty good almost the entire season.  But it’s starting to look like this Cubs team is less than the sum of its parts (as opposed to last year, which felt like the opposite). 

I’m assuming Lou’s going to use Guzman as the closer now; Marmol’s been almost as unreliable as Gregg and Lou hasn’t been shy about letting everyone know he feels that way.  Actually, I’d bet that…

Week 18 thoughts

We all knew it was going to be a rough 10 game road trip, but I don’t think any of us expected it to be this ugly.  After escaping with 1 win in Florida, the Cubs caught a little break with the free falling Reds and were able to win 2 of 3.  Expecting a sweep would have been greedy, but it was there for the taking but the offense no-showed again.  Friday’s game in Colorado felt like a sure loss once Z was scratched (and subsequently DL’d) 15 minutes before the game, and the team played like they expected to loss.  Saturday and Sunday were 2 of the sloppier games in recent memory, with the 4th inning Saturday night really taking the cake.  The Cubs botched 3 straight double play chances – the first by Theriot on a grounder less then 2 feet to his left, the second on a boot and kick by Aramis, and the third because Dempster didn’t cover first.  The Cubs then had 2 chances to get Hawpe trying to advance on a wild pitch, but Soto made a terrible throw to 2nd and Miles never turned to look at Hawpe after he caught the bad…

Week 17 thoughts

I hope I counted the number of weeks it’s been correctly…

Anyway, jumping right into the recap (all stats are for since the All-Star break).

The Good
Derrek Lee: .349/.425/.651.  He’s just been on a tear since the beginning of May.  I’ve said it before, but he looks like the Derrek Lee of 2005 and it’s hard to imagine this is the same guy from April.  His power stroke is back, and he’s hitting the ball all over the field.  Even his defense looks better lately. 
Aramis Ramirez: .375/.470/.750.  I think his shoulder isn’t bothering him that much.  With him and Lee, the Cubs middle of the order has been extremely potent, and dare I say, clutch. 
Kosuke Fukudome: .365/.476/.538.  I don’t know why, but moving to the leadoff spot has snapped him out of his annual decline (.333/.438/.545 batting leadoff).  He still can’t hit lefties, so I assume those numbers will tail off some when he’s starting for Reed Johnson’s half of the platoon. 
Jake Fox: .296/.323/.778, but only 31PAs.  Lou needs to find a way to play him more, plain and simple.  His bat HAS to be in the lineup on a more regular basis.
Alfonso Soriano: .339/.409/.644.  Just…

Cubs in first place —for now

A bit of a milestone today, so I thought I’d open up a thread for discussion.

With the Cubs completing their sweep of the Reds today, and the Phillies completing theirs over the Cardinals, the Cubs are in first place by a half game.  They had not led the division since April 21st.

This is the residue of a hot month of July, where the Cubs are 14-7, and 8-2 since the All Star Break, combined with, let’s be honest about it: a weak division.  As the Cubs can credit a hot July for their current status, the Cardinals have dominated the top spot because of a hot April where they went 16-7.  Since then, they’re four games under .500.

I guess I’d rather be in the Cubs’ shoes than the Cardinals’—maybe the Cubs have turned the corner, while the Cardinals have run on the momentum of being hot three months ago, and I think the Cubs have a more well-rounded roster.  But the Cardinals are also showing a strong willingness to make improvements, while the Cubs haven’t done much yet in that department.  The Cubs’ offense has been terrible this year, and all I’ve heard from the organization is trivia…

Thank goodness for the Nationals

There isn’t much point to doing a full recap after only 4 games, even if all 4 were wins.  Then again, they were only wins against the Nats and everything from the series should be taken with a grain of salt.  That being said, there were several very encouraging developments this past week.  Soriano hit a couple of home runs, his first since June 7th.  Alfonso has always been an incredibly streaky hitter, is he about to start a hot streak?  If so, he’s overdue.  Fontenot hit his first home run since June 9th.  And most encouraging in my mind was Harden’s performance Thursday.  He’s one of those pitchers that should shut the Nationals down, and it was good to see him perform at least as well as expected.  His next start against the Phillies will be a better sign of how he’s performing.  Actually, that’s true for everyone.

Cubs sit alone in 2nd place, 2 behind the Cards and 1 ahead of the Brewers.  This week has them playing 3 games in Philly and then home on the weekend to face the Reds.  The pitching matchups in the Philly series are Lilly/Rodrigo Lopez, Harden/Blanton (for all those A’s fans out…

First half thoughts

After an incredibly hectic June and first week of July, I attempted to write a recap last Monday.  A minor computer problem later, I’d lost the entire post.  Nonetheless, with the Ted Lilly All-Star break upon us, it’s time for a mega-first half review of an incredibly disappointing and underachieving Cubs team.  On to the breakdowns (all first half numbers).

The Good
Derrek Lee: .280/.354/.511.  After a horrid start (through May 16, he hit .198/.278/.337), he’s been the Cubs best player (since May 16, .326/.397/.608 – the first time he’s had an extended period anywhere near his 2005 season).  It is a remarkable turnaround for him, as I stated here a couple of times he looked absolutely washed up.  He’s driving the ball all over the field, he looks faster, and he may have even solved that GIDP problem from last year (only 4 so far).  As bad as the Cubs offense is right now, I shudder to think where they’d be if Lee was even just duplicating last year’s numbers.
Ted Lilly: 9-6, 3.18ERA, 119IP, 101/24 K/BB, 17HR.  The home run rate sucks, but everything else has been great.  14 of his 18 starts have been quality starts, and in…

Week 9 thoughts

3-2 on the road, with 4 of the 5 going to extra innings and a split of those 4.  I’d say that’s a good week, but not great.  All 5 games were 1 run affairs, which means they were winnable (and on the flip side, also loseable).  For the most part, the pitching, especially the starters, have been outstanding.  The offense still is struggling to be consistent and the defense has started to suffer.  The bullpen, outside of Guzman, has been shaky as well.  On to the breakdown (stats are for the past week only unless otherwise noted).

The Good
Randy Wells.  I don’t think we can say enough good stuff about how Wells has performed so far this year.  It’s borderline criminal that he still doesn’t have a big league win.  He pitched 2 outstanding games this week, taking a no hitter into the 7th of his first start.  Both games saw the bullpen blow his shot at a win.  For the week, he pitched 13.2 innings, only giving up 9 hits and 4 runs (only 3 earned), while striking out 8.  He looks like he’s going to stick in the rotation for quite a while right now. 
Angel Guzman.…

The More Things Change . . .

Hi Folks --

It’s been a long time since I’ve last rapped with ‘ya—just over a year.  Frankly, I thought it was longer than that.  There have been many reasons for my silence.  First, Andere Richtingen and especially Moses Taylor have done a fine job keeping the blog moving along.  Indeed, there have been few times, if any, where they didn’t voice opinions that I share.  It seems what whenever I found something worth discussing, I saw that the topic has already been bandied about here in Gonfalon Cubs.  (As an aside, I really enjoyed putting together capsules of past seasons, but the loss of Proquest access, among other things, stopped me from doing it.  I may do it again, but make no promises.)

Second, and more candidly, I haven’t followed the team with quite the same fervor as in the past.  It seems that in the last few years, (a) I’ve missed more games than I did in the past and more importantly (b) for the most part, I’m not regularly following the newspapers or local media.  (This has been great for my sanity, by the way.  I recommend it.) As a result, there have been a few times in…

Week 8 thoughts

The Cubs were much better in week 8 than week 7, although that’s not saying much since it’s impossible to have a worse week than week 7.  They won 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh and split a 4 game set with the best-record-in-the-majors Dodgers.  It could have been a more productive week; the Cubs lost a winnable game in each series.  The biggest news of the week is probably that Marshall will be moving back to the pen once Zambrano and Harden come back.  Zambrano’s suspension is up this week and I expect Harden back as soon as his 15 days on the DL is up (either this weekend or early next week).  This doesn’t surprise me, and was probably inevitable as soon as it was obvious how bad Cotts had become.  I don’t think this is a knock on Marshall, and it’s not an overreaction to his bad start last night. Credit is due to Randy Wells, who has been nothing short of amazing since he’s been in the big league rotation.  I wonder how much this possible change weighed on Marshall, but expect him to contribute and be successful in the pen.  On to the breakdown (all stats last…

Week 7 thoughts

Pathetic. 

5 runs in their last 6 games, thanks to the outburst of 2 runs yesterday.  In the last 6 games, the Cubs have led a total of 2 innings (by 1 run).  They didn’t hold the lead at any point in St. Louis.  Over the last 6 games, as a team the Cubs are hitting .189/.246/.265.  I guess the silver lining is that the pitching has been pretty good; yesterday was the only game they allowed more than 4 runs during the week.  On to the re-ordered breakdown.

The Bad
The entire offense.  During the slump, here’s everyone’s batting lines:
Soriano - .182/.182/.318
Theriot - .083./.083/.125
Fukudome - .125/.333/.125
Lee - .368/.400/.526
Bradley - .150/.190/.200 (why don’t you stfu up until you hit something, you’re making it too easy to be disliked)
Soto - .235/.316./.294 (at least it’s an improvement on his season numbers!)
Fontenot - .235/.235/.294
Miles - .100/.100/.100
Hoffpauir - .143/.143/.143
Scales - .100/.357/.100
Hill - .250/.250/.250
Johnson - .250/.250/.1000 (thanks a lot for that HR yesterday though)
Freel - .000/.000/.000

One player hitting worth anything.  And it’s the guy we’ve been calling washed up all season!  The most disturbing thing to me is that the walks have…

Week 6 thoughts

Today’s post is going to be short because I’m on the road for work and don’t have a lot of time to spare.  Even with yesterday’s loss, last week was a great week for the Cubs and was the exact type of performance I was looking for when I wrote last week’s negative post.  Lots of questions we had were answered in one way or another.  Lee’s bat is coming alive; and not just the power, but key hits in big spots.  Soto hit his first home run, and has finally starting hitting line drives more consistently.  Bradley’s suspension was finally served, and he’s been hitting better as well.  Randy Wells has pitched 11 scoreless innings is his 2 starts.  Guzman is beginning to solidify himself in the pen and it shouldn’t be long until he because one of the top set up guys.  Bobby Scales has been performing much better than anyone could have expected (and scoring the game winning run Saturday had to be a thrill for him).  Harden is still healthy (knock on wood).  Marmol looks to be past his annual control loss phase.  Fukudome, Theriot, and Hoffpauir are still hitting and playing well overall.  On the negative…

Week 5 thoughts

It’s starting to feel like a chore to follow this team.  I haven’t enjoyed the season so far, and there’s not a lot to look forward to over the next couple of weeks with the best pitcher and best hitter out of the lineup.  Lou looks as miserable as I feel.  There are definitely some bright spots (Hoffpauir, Guzman, and I guess Fukudome), but following the latest news about Derrek Lee’s neck spasms or Rich Harden’s velocity or the craziest jam Marmol and Gregg can work themselves into (and out of, at least in Marmol’s case) is just wearing me down.  I’m not giving up on the team; I still expect them to compete all season.  But I’m not interested in analyzing the team when all they’re doing is hoping to tread water.  I think the best case scenario for the next 6 weeks is to stay within a couple games of .500, even though the schedule isn’t all that difficult (lots of San Diego, Houston, Pittsburgh, and a depleted Dodgers team mixed in with a Cardinals series and the start of interleague against a weak-looking AL Central).  Even with Ramirez out, the Cubs still have enough offensive talent to outperform…

Week 4 thoughts

After another bad series in Arizona (Cubs are 16 games under .500 against the D’Backs since they started play), the Cubs rebounded nicely and took 3 of 4 from a young, but currently first place, Marlins team.  Dropping below .500 was a cause for concern, but there was a lot to be optimistic about after this weekend.  On to the categories…

The Good
Fukudome: .312/.443/.545.  A quiet week for him, but solid defense and lots of walks.  He easily leads the Cubs with 18 free passes so far, and is second to Soriano in runs.
Soriano: .277/.354/.545.  He’s cooled off from his torrid start, but he’s still taking some walks and looks better on the basepaths than any time during his Cubs tenure.  Leads the team in runs with 23, and is third in walks.
Theriot: .323/.371/.458.  He really is turning into a David Eckstein type player, and that’s a good thing. 
Ramirez’s Hamstring.  He’s supposed to be back in the lineup tonight, and the best part of that is it forces Aaron Miles back to the bench.  Aramis had a great start to the season (.352/.386/.574), so lets hope the time off hasn’t cooled him off.
Lilly: 3-2, 31.2IP, 3.13ERA,…

Week 3 thoughts

This was not a good week for the Cubs.  Only 2 wins (both of the blowout variety), but 4 losses and a mounting injury problem.  We knew coming into the season that the team had several guys that were going to deal with minor injuries here and there (specifically Bradley and Ramirez), we just hoped we wouldn’t run into a situation where both of them were out at the same time.  On top of that, losing guys like Marmol and Lee at the same time only adds to the problem.  It highlights the weakness of the bench (although offensively the drop from Lee to Hoffpauir really isn’t that steep - it’s actually a significant improvement for now - but that just highlights another problem: Lee’s decline).  And then Soriano takes a fastball to the head.  Luckily, the helmet took the brunt of the impact and due to Soriano mostly getting out of the way; he didn’t even have to leave the game.  On to the breakdown:

The Good:
Fukudome: .371/.481/.661.  He’s carrying the team right now.  He looks great hitting third.  He’s driving the ball, he’s making contact, and he’s been extremely consistent so far. 
Hoffpauir’s offense: .360/.393/.680.  He’s already gotten…

Week 2 thoughts

Is the sale of the team ever going to happen?  If you’ve got an extra $100million or so, please help finalize it already.

I think overall it was another positive week for the Cubs.  The Cubs have yet to be blown out, and they’ve shown a knack for winning close games and for dramatic victories.  Of course, the flip side to that is the pitching has been putting the team behind and the offense has picked up a nasty habit of leaving lots of runners on base. 

The Good:
Fukudome: .375/.480/.750.  He’s been phenomenal offensively so far, leading the team in walks and is second in total bases (only 1 behind Soriano).  His defense in CF has been perfectly adequate so far.  Until we see that it’s something besides another hot start, I’m sure most of us will still be skeptical of him. 
Soriano: .292/.393/.646.  He’s been carrying the team so far, with several dramatic home runs.  Most impressively, he’s shown more patience than I’ve ever seen from him. He already has 8 walks, and beyond that, it seems that he’s seeing more pitches in most of his at bats.  We had a couple of classic errors this week, but he…

Week 1 thoughts

I don’t have a lot of time to go into a ton of detail, but I figured we could use a recap thread for the week.  I’m going to go with my impressions, so feel free to correct anything that the numbers would show I’m wrong about. 

The Good:
Fukudome.  He started hot last year, and he seems to always hit the Brewers well.  But he does seem to be driving the ball a little harder so far.  There haven’t been as many bailout swings so far.  His defense has been ok, not spectacular but not horrific.  He had the one terrible read last night, but I think he’ll get better with more experience out there.
Fontenot.  His defense has been better than I remember (outside of the play where he underestimated Fielder’s hustle/speed), and his patience has been outstanding (all 5 walks in the last 2 games).  I’ve been a believer of his for a little while now, and I’m ready to say that I expect him to outperform DeRosa this season.  I’ve kinda beaten around that bush a little, but I’m ready to go on the record.  Fontenot is at .333/.462/.571 and DeRosa is at .115/.207/.269.  I might make…

Spring Training Finale

The big news yesterday was that Gregg beat out Marmol for the closer’s job.  This wasn’t a huge surprise, especially since Gregg has been lights out this spring.  I don’t think basing the decision solely on ST numbers is wise, but I think Lou put a little more thought into this.  Marmol adds a lot of value in the 7th/8th innings, and it would be pretty wasteful for save him for easy saves.  I’m not entirely sold on Gregg, but once again I’ll default to saying that I trust Lou to adjust if this backfires.  Marmol is a helluva plan B.  Marmol can be emotional, so let’s hope he doesn’t let this affect his performance.

The latest round of cuts included some potential F-troop members such as So Taguchi, Esteban German, Andres Blanco and Mark Johnson.  This leaves the Cubs with 30 players, so there’s going to be 5 more cuts.  Four of those will be from the bullpen, and the competition for the final 2 spots is between Jeff Samardzija, Chad Gaudin, Angel Guzman and David Patton.  Patton is a Rule Ver, so if he doesn’t make the team he’s headed back to the Rockies (Patton has 12K/2BB in 10…

Spring Training week 4

Fontenot has been named the regular at 2b, which I think we all expected when the Cubs dealt DeRosa.  I still expect Miles to start against lefties, but it’ll be interesting to see what Mike can do this season.  ZIPS predicts a .268/.340/.418 line from him, and PETCOA goes for .270/.356/.441.  While the BPro line is better, I think we’d be pretty happy with either of those.  It’s a downgrade from DeRosa’s season last year, but is probably is the same ballpark as what DeRosa will put up this season. 

That link also hints at Lou’s thoughts for the lineup to start the season, which right now goes Soriano, Fukudome, Lee, Bradley, Ramirez, Fontenot, Soto, Theriot.  I’ve got plenty of quibbles with that, but I also know that’s not what we’ll finish the year with.  I expect Lou to recognize Lee’s power is gone, and unless Fukudome is much better than we think he’s not going last in the 2nd spot long.  I’m sure we’ll have plenty of time to argue about that during the season, so I’ll just stop there.

Marmol had a rough first day back with the Cubs, partially of his own doing (2 HBP).  Let’s hope we…

Spring Training Week 3

After a hot start, the Cubs spent most of the last week losing.  So it sounds like Lou is in mid-season form already:

“Look, spring training wins and losses don’t mean anything,” Piniella said. “But you don’t want to get in the habit of getting your [butts] kicked every day either. That I can tell you, and that’s exactly what’s happening here.”

Marshall had another strong start yesterday - 4 shutout innings - so I’m sure we’ll hear even more about him remaining the favorite for the last playoff spot.  Kevin Hart is still scuffling, continuing from last season. 

Another Harden update.

Spring Training, week 2

Cubs have gotten off to a good start in Spring Training, suffering their first loss of the spring to once-again possible future Cub, Jake Peavy, yesterday 4-2.  Dempster got his first start, and was a little rusty.  Lilly made his only start of the spring before leaving for the WBC on Friday.  Samardizja, Marshall, and Heilman have also had turns, with 2 innings for each not enough to give any an early leg up in the 5th starter derby. 

Marmol changed his mind again, and will be pitching for the Dominican Republic in the WBC.  It’s something he clearly wanted to do, and Lou has given his blessing, so best of luck to Carlos.  Marmol will be the DR’s closer, so hopefully a good showing there for him will carry over to this season.  I’m not going to start worrying about overuse this early in the year, but I’m sure we’ll hear about this if he goes through a slump or has an injury at any point this season.

Hoffpauir has been off to a good start this spring, which should help solidify his roster spot.  Hendry’s gone back to the scrap heap again, this time giving Corey Koskie a try-out…

Early Spring Training News

There haven’t been a lot of Cubs threads recently, so I’ll put in a couple of links and thoughts here and see if we can generation some sort of discussion.

Here’s a couple of position battles to watch.  Samardzija gets the first start among the 5th starter candidates, with Marshall right behind him.  The “first loser” of this battle between Samardzija, Marshall, Heilman and Gaudin will likely be the 6th starter, and probably should be expected to make between 10-15 starts filling in for Harden and any other SP injuries.  I don’t know if I have one of those 4 that I prefer, but if Samardzija really does have a 4th pitch (I didn’t realize he had a 3rd, and barely noticed his 2nd last year) he’s probably got the best stuff.  Marshall has made the most starts (at least for the Cubs) and has also had the most success starting.  He’s shown the ability to be able to switch roles easily, so he might be the best candidate for that 6th spot (also, Cotts is the only other lefty reliever that looks like he has a shot at the roster).

That article also mentions the closer competition, which really isn’t…

Pitchers, Catchers, and Gabor report

Time to dust this blog off and get back to work.  I’ve got a lot of thoughts, so let’s see if I can organize them in a coherent manner.  I’m not sure how much of this post will be comprised of original thoughts; either I or someone else has probably said everything here at some point this offseason. 

I highlight Paul Bako in the title, partly in jest, but also because I think his signing highlights everything that went wrong this offseason.  One of Hendry’s stated goals was to better balance the lineup more, i.e. to add more left-handed hitters.  Due to the continued uncertainty surrounding the sale of the team, he appeared to be operating under a very strict budget.  For the first time that I can remember, the Cubs were actively trying to shed salary to meet their budget (the total payroll will be higher than last year though).  Even though Bako hits left-handed, he hits worse than his replacement vs. RHP *and* wasn’t cheaper.  Bako’s splits show a .224/.315/.303 vs. RHP in ‘08 and a .216/.293/.271 for the last 3 seasons (Blanco’s were .270/.303/.365 and .244/.280/.364 respectively).  Both Bako and Blanco signed $750,000 for this season.  While the…

No Peavy.  Now what?

I find myself wondering if Jim Hendry is a good multi-tasker.  Lots of the stories throughout the Peavy ordeal (I guess I’ll call it an ordeal; any other suggestions?  Looks like this might become an annual offseason event for Hendry) mentioned that Hendry was trying to find a left handed bat and unload Marquis’s contract before moving on Peavy.  The FA market has been pretty slow this year, outside of the Cubs overpaying Dempster, so I don’t really blame Hendry for not accomplishing a whole lot so far. 

Ibanez is taken (thankfully), so that limits to the Cubs’ choices to Bradley and Abreu on the FA market.  The Trib seems to think Bradley is the favorite, and he’s my personal choice.  He should come cheaper than Ibanez or Abreu, plus he’s younger and better defensively.  Cubs still need to sign a backup catcher; I see no reason why they shouldn’t consider bringing back Blanco.  Paul Sullivan seems to think the Cubs are going to resign Gabor for $500k.  I think I’d prefer Koyie Hill to a Bako sequel. 

I don’t see Hendry acquiring another pitcher, save for perhaps a veteran lefty option for the pen.  Maybe they’ll splurge on Fuentes with…

Offseason thoughts

I’ve been meaning to post something for a while now, but haven’t gotten around to it for one reason or another.  Things got pretty ugly in Cubs threads around here, mirroring the Cubs’ postseason performance.  I think we were all incredibly disappointed, and quite frankly, I’m still not sure how to feel about this season.  The pathetic end to the season really left a sour taste in my mouth after the brilliance of the regular season.  I can’t bring myself to write a rational “What went wrong?” post, so I’ll post some hot stove stuff and see where it takes me.

I was shaken out of my writing apathy because of this Paul Sullivan article on the Cubs’ pursuit of Jake Peavy.  From what I can gather from elsewhere, the Braves are the favorites to land the Cy Young award winner.  The Padres sound like they prefer the Braves’ prospects to the Cubs’, although it’s been tough to nail down exactly what the Cubs are offering (I’ve seen all of the following players mentioned at least once: Pie, Cedeno, Samardizja, Vitters, Castillo, Marshall, Hill).  There’s been lots of talk about a 3rd team to help the Cubs and Braves match up,…

Thoughts on Game 2 after a sleepless night

Ugh.

---

I kinda just wanted to post that and not even talk about the details of the game.  What a terrible game.  What’s with everyone?  Don’t they realize it’s the playoffs?  I think Zambrano pitched a good game, not a great game, but the defense obviously let him down.  It started with the Theriot boot that was ruled a hit (why the hell did he try to barehand that?), and went to hell after DeRosa’s and Lee’s boots of potential double plays.  Aramis wanted in on the fun.  Theriot made sure he got his error in the 9th.  And that was that.  This offense is in a huge funk right now, and we can rag on Fukudome all we want but the difference between him and say Fontenot isn’t making up the run differential in this series.  The cherry on top was to see the bullpen struggle just as much. 

I still feel that the Cubs can win this series.  If they win in LA tomorrow, they’re going to win this series.  I truly believe that.  But it’s going to take everyone busting out of their slumps.  DeRosa and Edmonds are the only 2 guys making good contact right now.…

Rising to the Occasion…or…Not

There’s no need for a lengthy Game Two post-mortem: what happened last night can be summarized in few words.  Zambrano pitched well, the defense let him down badly, the offense struggled against a starter who pitched an outstanding game.  Backs against the wall.

A series win is unlikely, but how bad does it really look?  Sure, winning two on the road just to force a game back home is a tall order, but games are played one at a time, and tomorrow’s matchup of Harden against Kuroda doesn’t look too bad for the Cubs.  A win in that game would force a matchup between Ted Lilly, who has pitched pretty well lately, against Derek Lowe or Greg Maddux.  Lowe was brilliant on Wednesday, but is he going to manage that again?  Is Maddux going to shut the Cubs down?  Would Dempster suck again in a Game 5 or would he cash in on the opportunity for redemption?

Again, I’m not exactly brimming with optimism, but the current situation rates somewhat higher than “hopeless.”

The key factor is the state of mind of the Cubs players, and of course, we have no way of assessing that.  They sleep-walked through those first two…

Thoughts on Game 1 after a night of fitful sleep

I’m not going to try to organize these in any sort of coherent manner, here’s just a rambling smattering of my thoughts after the dreary loss last night.

-Dempster really was playing with fire all night.  He’s kinda done this balancing act all season, but I really haven’t seen him with this little control.  He’s lucky to have escaped with only giving up 4 runs.  He had several chances to get out of that inning but just couldn’t put guys away.  That’s a credit to the Dodger hitters, especially Manny.  He got quite a few guys chasing on his splitter early, but once the Dodgers realized he wasn’t getting strikes on anything but his fastball they were able to wait for him to make a mistake.  I said at the time Lou was right to leave him in, and I still think so.  And this was definitely the fear we had when we learned Dempster was starting game 1 (and potentially game 5). 

-Some bad luck was involved.  I don’t see much of a difference in the balls that Loney and Edmonds hit.  Loney’s went out, Edmonds didn’t.  Both have uppercut swings (Edmonds’s is much more pronounced, of course), but both…

Quick thoughts on the NLDS

I don’t have a lot of time to get all my thoughts down, but I wanted to at least start a thread where we can discuss this matchup.  Lots of previews all over the place, but I’ll link to the MLB page for the series. 

Game 1, Wed 5:30pm local start time.  Dempster vs. Lowe
Game 2, Thu 8:30pm local start time.  Zambrano vs. Billingsley
Game 3, Sat 7:00 local start time.  Harden vs. Kuroda

I think the Cubs have the edge in all of the starting matchups, *IF* Zambrano doesn’t implode.  I am a little worried about him, but do think he’ll work things out and at least be somewhat effective.  The offense just needs to play the way they’re capable of, and hopefully the minor injuries to DeRosa and Soto don’t slow them down.  I read somewhere that if DeRosa can’t go, Fukudome will get the start in RF.  That leads me to believe Fontenot will be starting at 2b against righties in the playoffs, and I fully support this.  The weakest link in the Cubs right now might be their bullpen, but even then Marmol should still be lights out.  We have plenty to complain about with Howry…

Is this the playoff rotation?

Phil Rogers speculates what the playoff rotation for the NLDS will look like in this article.  I know, Phil Rogers, but he does have some worthwhile information in there:

Ryan Dempster, who is 14-3 with a 2.86 earned-run average at Wrigley Field, won his 17th game on Sunday and is on track to face Milwaukee on Friday at Miller Park. That lines him up to start Game 1 of the playoffs on Oct. 1. Harden would have six days’ rest before a start in Game 2.

Zambrano, who has a 5.51 ERA since the All-Star break, is lined up to throw a simulated game Monday and then work Game 3.

“He needs work,” Piniella said of Zambrano, who has pitched only 102/3 innings in the last 27 days. “He missed two starts prior to the no-no, then the next start was messy. We’re going to let him work as much as possible.”

If it wasn’t for the nugget that Z is throwing a simulated game on Monday, I probably would have written off this entire article.  I tend to agree with Lou that Z needs some more work, if only to sharpen his control.  There were some extenuating circumstances surrounding the…