7.42% - So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Today’s Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds gives the Cubs a 7.42% chance at making the playoffs this year and a 5.58% chance at winning the NL Central.  After a day when nothing went wrong for the Cubs (a.k.a., an off day), I found myself wondering what exactly has to happen for the Cubs to reverse choke this season.  The Cubs are sitting 8 games behind the Cards entering play today, but only 6 in the loss column.  The Cards are currently on pace for around 92 or 93 wins (BPro’s average puts them at 92), so for this exercise let’s assume the Cubs have to win 94.  There are 40 games left, which means the Cubs would have to go 32-8 to finish with 94 wins, or 31-9 to tie at 93 wins.  Let’s assume the latter, leaving the Cubs and Cards to play a make up game, time and place TBD.

In this scenario, the Cubs pretty much have to sweep the Cards in the 3 game set 9/18-20 in St. Louis.  This gives the Cubs 37 other games to make up 5 games.  The Cubs have a very favorable home stretch starting tonight, with the Nats, Mets, and Astros all coming in for 3 games and looking very beatable.  Add in a make up game with the White Sox, and the Cubs could be looking at a 9-1 or 8-2 home stretch minimum.  The Cubs then go on a quick 6 game trip to visit the Mets and Pirates, all winnable games, but let’s put the Cubs at 5-1.  If the Cubs can somehow manage to 13-3 in this stretch, while picking up 2 or 3 games on the Cards, the division race would be right back on.  That would put the Cubs at 75-63 on September 10th, 5 back with 24 to go.  The Cubs then have another small homestand, facing the Reds 3 times and the Brewers 4.  5-2 is a must, while likely picking up another game. 

The puts the Cubs at 80-65 heading to St. Louis for the pivotal series.  It’s hard to predict how the rotations will play out due to off days, but if each teams rotations stayed as is the matchups would be Lilly/Wainright , Dempster/Pineiro , and Zambrano/Carpenter.  A very tall task, but alterna-reality Cubs are more than up for the challenge.  If somehow the Cubs can miraculously escape that series only 2 back with 13 play, anything is possible.  The Cubs leave St. Louis and travel to Milwaukee for 3 and San Fransisco for another 3.  Outside of the Cards series, the 3 in SF will be the only other time the rest of the year the Cubs play a team in contention (besides the random make up games here and there).  The Cubs wrap up the last week of the season with another 4 against the Pirates and 3 against the Diamondbacks. 

We’ve only looked at half of the scenario, so what about the Cardinals schedule?  It’s slightly more difficult than the Cubs; they still have to play Atlanta, Florida (both at home) and Colorado (in Denver), mixed in with Houston (6), Milwaukee (6), Pittsburgh (3), Cincinnati (3), and Washington (3).  The Cards are a much better team in the 2nd half, so the Cubs can’t really count on them falling into a tailspin.  I think the worst case for the Cards down the stretch is .500, and that’s probably not very likely. 

Going back to the Cubs, what has to happen to cause the Cubs to play at this better than .700 winning percentage?  For starters, Lee, Fukudome, Baker, and Fox have to keep hitting where they’ve been hitting lately.  Ramirez and Soriano both needs to catch fire.  Soto and Bradley need to play as good or better than they have all season.  Zambrano is going to have to step right back into the rotation and be lights out.  Dempster and Wells are going to have to pitch better than they have the last month.  Lilly needs to completely regain his first half form.  Harden needs to keep doing exactly what he’s doing right now.  Marmol and Guzman have to re-become unhittable.  And Lou has to stop being an idiot.  Sure is a lot to ask, and perhaps 20 to 1 seems about right.

But if it doesn’t happen, what can we look for the rest of the season?  Limiting myself to 5 things, I’d say the most interesting storylines to follow when the season is playing out are:
1. Is Jake Fox for real?  This is still a very real question, and to be honest, I’m not sure anything he can do this season will settle this either way.  But if he can stay at his current levels, he’ll force the Cubs to find a way to fit him in next season (and I still vote for corner super-sub/top PH).
2. Can Soto regain his Rookie of the Year form?  I, for one, am not ready to write off last season as a fluke or career year for Geo yet.  But if he doesn’t show any resemblance to that player, the Cubs will have to seriously consider investing in a better back up and/or fallback option.
3. What’s going to happen with Harden?  He’s on quite the contract push now, and he’s making the case that he’s invaluable to the Cubs.  This Harden is a must sign.
4. Can Wells win Rookie of the Year?  A lot is going to depend on how much support the Cubs’ offense gives him the rest of the season.  And he’s probably at best only co-favorites with J. Happ. 
5. What’s Lou going to do?  He’s claiming he’ll be back next year, but do we believe him?  Do we want him back? 

Some other questions likely won’t be resolved until later in the offseason – the ownership situation, any front office turnover, projected budget for 2010 – but the Cubs really don’t have many prospects that are likely to see significant playing time or are likely to contribute next year.  I’d like to see Lee and Fukudome finish strong, I’d like to see Soriano either shut it down because his knee is too bad or to show flashes or his good self, and I’d really like to see Zambrano stay healthy and pitch well enough to shut his critics up for a while (they won’t no matter what he does).  But until then, I’m going to hold on to this sliver of hope.