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Monday, November 19, 2007

Baseball America Rates the Cubs

Baseball America ranks the top ten Cubs prospects:

Topping the list is the Cubs’ first round draftee in 2007: high school third baseman Josh Vitters. I’m very excited about Vitters and his potential but I can’t see ranking him ahead of Soto who is major league ready.

The eye-roller on this list is the high ranking of Tyler Colvin who is fourth; one position below his 2006 rating. Colvin hit for average and a little pop but is far from a well-rounded player. The idea that anyone would prefer him to, well, anybody on this list is difficult for me to believe.

The biggest surprise for me was Jose Ceda. Ceda showed fantastic K rates this year (69 Ks in 50 innings) but walked a ton of hitters and is very far away from the major leagues. Ceda was the return for Todd Walker in 2006.

The noteable absence is Eric Patterson (rated 6th last season) who hit .297/.362/.455 in AAA Iowa. At first glance it appears to be a step back from his 2006 batting line of .343/.382/.478 at the the same level but he increased his walk rate and power. Patterson’s glove did not appear to make any strides forward, however.

Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:53 AM | 20 comment(s)
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1. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 19, 2007 at 04:05 PM (#2620333)

Given the alternative of Fontenot as the left handed side of a second base platoon, I think Eric should probably trump him on the roster. The news of Chicago pursuing Castillo and Matsui does not suggest the Cubs think highly of either in-house option.

2. SouthSideRyan(roots for dreck) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2620444)

The Cubs are forcing Patterson into becoming an OF to improve his(you guessed it) versatility.

3. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2620445)

Colvin's a lot better player than people think. I saw him play several times late in the year and was impressed with what I saw. He's got the range to play CF and the arm to play RF.

-- MWE

4. Moses Taylor Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:10 PM (#2620450)

Does he have the bat to play RF? And unless Pie bombs, he's not going to pass him in CF, right?

5. PooNani Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:20 PM (#2620471)

Colvin's 15/101 BB/K for a 1st round college player in A+/AA ball isn't exactly inspiring

6. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2620504)

Colvin's 15/101 BB/K for a 1st round college player in A+/AA ball isn't exactly inspiring

No, it's not inspiring. However, it's not something about which to be *overly* concerned, either, when you also factor in 35 doubles, 5 triples, and 16 HRs with a near-.300 BA and a contact rate of around 80%.

-- MWE

7. Thomas Richard Hamilton Nugent Posted: November 19, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2620512)

I think Colvin's pretty exciting. An .812 OPS and 56 XBH in 492 ABs as a 21 year old between FSL/AA is pretty darned good. The strikeouts fall into the generally acceptable range, though obviously some more walks would be nice.

8. Andere Richtingen Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:07 PM (#2620533)

I'd be a lot more excited about Colvin if the Cubs had any track record at all of developing such players.

9. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:25 PM (#2620550)

The Cubs are forcing Patterson into becoming an OF to improve his(you guessed it) versatility.

Is that a long-term plan? From what I remember, this was being discussed immediately before Patterson joined the major league club. At the time I was under the impression it was an attempt to help the 2007 ball club.

10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 19, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2620574)

Hey Mike, what's your take on Samardzija? His rep seems to indicate a high K/high BB pitcher but he isn't striking anybody out.

And yet, his ERAs aren't bad. He did a good job keeping the ball in the park at A+ (but not in his short time at AA). Do you see anything there to indicate he keeps the ball down or might otherwise succeed despite a low K rate?

11. TempleUSox is in the Best Shape of His Life Posted: November 19, 2007 at 07:14 PM (#2620602)

I think Colvin's pretty exciting. An .812 OPS and 56 XBH in 492 ABs as a 21 year old between FSL/AA is pretty darned good.

No its not. It's passable. It's not something I would get excited about.

12. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: November 19, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2620604)

It's also the FSL and the Southern Leagues -- keep that in mind.

13. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2620842)

Hey Mike, what's your take on Samardzija?

He's going to be a good pitcher eventually, but he still has a lot of learning to do. He was hitting low-90s when I saw him at the end of the season (slow gun at Five County) but his breaking stuff was pedestrian, and he doesn't mix it in very well yet. I think the Cubs need to slow him down a bit; there's no rush.

Keeping the ball in the park is a lot easier in the FSL than it is in Sevierville.

Colvin posted an .850 OPS in the FSL; only five hitters posted better ones (Mat Gamel also posted an .850). As DJF notes, both the FSL and the Southern League are pitchers' leagues - Colvin's .774 OPS in the SL was significantly above the league average for that league, as well. I think he's probably still two years away, but he can play.

-- MWE

14. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:45 PM (#2620849)

Thanks, Mike. I was wondering if he'd found a nice two-seamer. It makes sense that the Ks haven't come if he doesn't have any breaking stuff.

Is there any vaguely reliable method for calculating something akin to a league factor?

15. karkface killah Posted: November 19, 2007 at 11:48 PM (#2620858)

Had no idea Tyler Colvin was white.

16. Frisco Cali Posted: November 20, 2007 at 12:20 AM (#2620888)

Had no idea Tyler Colvin was white

Was? But he's not anymore?

17. karkface killah Posted: November 20, 2007 at 12:43 AM (#2620906)

Was? But he's not anymore?

Correct, Dr. Grammar. With my magic powers I've colored Mr. Colvin darker than the ace of spades.

18. zonk Posted: November 20, 2007 at 09:40 AM (#2621054)

So who's a good comp for Colvin?

Juan Encarnacion? Jose Guillen?

19. (d)re(ck)tro-shiite Posted: November 20, 2007 at 10:18 AM (#2621091)

With my magic powers I've colored Mr. Colvin darker than the ace of spades.

Damn shame Dusty's no longer around, then. He'd have Colvin up by mid-season to handle that nasty Chicago midday heat.

20. JJ1986 Posted: November 20, 2007 at 10:28 AM (#2621103)

So who's a good comp for Colvin?

Curtis Granderson is probably the current major leaguer I'd compare him to.

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