BBTF's Gonfalon Cubs Discussion :: Carlos Zambrano: What the…???

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Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Carlos Zambrano: What the…???

Carlos Zambrano entered this season as the disputable ace of the starting rotation. This came on the heels of another solid year, albeit one where he led the league in walks.

His season so far can be divided into three distinguishable parts: The Bad Start, The Great Comeback, and The Wheels Falling off the Cart Again.

The Bad Start consists of his first twelve appearances, where he threw 73.2 IP, gave up 83 H, 13 HR, walked 34 and and struck out 51, going 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA. His highest game score was 66, and he broke 60 only three times. He managed only four quality starts in that period, which ended with the infamous fight with Michael Barrett. This stretch included extensive discussion about alterations in his mechanics, which were typical for someone battling some kind of injury.

After that, Zambrano had a period of eleven starts where he was excellent. If not for Piniella pulling him after five innings in a 12-1 victory against the Giants, he would have made eleven straight quality starts. He threw 76.2 IP, gave up 38 (!!) H, 4 HR, walked 31 and struck out 77, going 9-2 with a 1.41 ERA. His lowest game score in that period was 59, and he cracked 80 three times. This stretch ended with the contract extension.

Since then, six starts have transpired. In the first of these, he gave up one earned run against the Mets in 5 innings, but walked seven batters. He’s thrown 33.2 IP, giving up 45 H, 4 HR, walked 22 and struck out 27. No quality starts, and his highest game score was 57. He has gone 0-5 with an 8.41 ERA in this period, which was most recently marked with another confrontation, this time with the booing fans as he left the mound.

I’d love to offer some cogent analysis of this, but I don’t have much insight as to what the hell is going on here. All I can offer is “WTF?”, and wonder out loud about will transpire in the remaining five starts or so Zambrano is slated for through the end of the regular season. I pose the question: Will this third phase continue on as it has, or will Zambrano’s season end on a high note?

Andere Richtingen Posted: September 04, 2007 at 11:51 AM | 26 comment(s)
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1. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 04, 2007 at 12:48 PM (#2511167)

It's a little difficult to forecast success or failure for a pitcher who has a great track record to go along with tremendous control issues. People seem to find cause and effect in Carlos' demeanor but he's always had the appearance of a hot head; I really don't think it tells us much.

If anything, his emotional outbursts (like the Barrett episode) have personally driven him to success as much as failure.

2. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 04, 2007 at 12:55 PM (#2511185)

I said this in the other thread, but it bears repeating:

Jason Kendall needs to step up and get punched for the benefit of the team.

3. Andere Richtingen Posted: September 04, 2007 at 12:58 PM (#2511191)

Yeah, I'm not at all sure as to how these boilovers affect his performance, positively or negatively. I guess I put slightly more stock in that hypothesis as I do in Mark Grace's method for busting slumps, but not by much. Not that I have any better ideas.

4. Moses Taylor Posted: September 04, 2007 at 01:01 PM (#2511194)

I heard a Derrek Lee quote saying that he hopes this will helps Zambrano. He thinks Z pitches better when mad, and that Z's mad right now. I don't really have an opinion one way or the other.

There was a lot of speculation that he was hurt earlier in the year, but then that went away when he got good again. I'm not sure if I remember any comments about his mechanics, or if there was a flaw that was fixed. His velocity was fine yesterday, so I'm not about to jump back on the hurt bandwagon.

5. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 04, 2007 at 01:12 PM (#2511221)

If I was Joe Sheehan, meaning I would have to inject a needle into my head and put half my brain to sleep, I would suggest that "fans worry too much about how players and teams get to a certain point as opposed to the final result. X player or team is what they are, a mediocre/good/great player/team."

Which I find to be a very convenient copout from actually trying to UNDERSTAND the ebb and flow of a season be it related to a team or a player.

When the Brewers whacked him around last Wednesday Carlos was simply catching way too much of the plate at the end of his stint on the mound. Corey Hart's triple to right was belt high. Weeks liner to lead off the game was right down the plate. So were a fair number of other pitchers. The Braun double that finished him off was more the result of fatigue than anything. Z had thrown over 110 pitches to that point.

But that's just one game. I am sure the Cub fans here have more insightful commentary......

6. Weeks T. Olive Posted: September 04, 2007 at 01:25 PM (#2511241)

I'm not sure if I remember any comments about his mechanics, or if there was a flaw that was fixed. His velocity was fine yesterday, so I'm not about to jump back on the hurt bandwagon.

When he was pitching poorly earlier in the year, a lot was made of the fact that he was 'dropping down' to a lower arm slot (it was mentioned in several broadcasts and in the papers, and I believe there was a post by CBW in Bullpen Mechanics about it).

I haven't seen Z's last few starts - anyone know if he's doing this again?

7. Jake Peavy's # 1 Fan Posted: September 04, 2007 at 05:19 PM (#2511584)

I can't stand the guy. That fat SOB really gets under my skin, can't even see him pitch if it's not against the Padres. That said.

Hope he's not hurt.

8. Doc Nabbit Posted: September 04, 2007 at 11:42 PM (#2512388)

This stretch ended with the contract extension.

Since then, six starts have transpired.

Is the timeline right here? I thought he started slowing up a start or two before the extention.

9. Doc Nabbit Posted: September 05, 2007 at 12:04 AM (#2512411)

Hope he's not hurt.

I'm pretty sure something's screwed up with his arm. I hope it's something he can work through, like Mark Buehrle's dog days debacle last year. Or Greg Maddux'x mid-1990 meltdown (anyone remember that?). Or Jim Kaat in the first 50 games in 1967. Or Roger Clemens's final 11 starts in 1993. Steve Carlton in May/June 1973. Steve Carlton in the summer of 1968. Steve Carlton in the beginning of 1970. Steve Carlton in early summer 1970. Tom Glavine from around Memorial Day to Independence Day in 1994. Tom Glavine in his first ten starts in 1999. Don Sutton early 1967. Don Sutton from late April to early July 1974. Gaylord Perry, April 1965. Gaylord Perry for seven weeks in June/July 1973. Nolan Ryan, second half of 1971. Phil Niekro, the outset of 1970. Phil Niekro, about five weeks in June/July 1970. Phil Niekro, April/May 1977.

Look, the good news is that while Z's been pitching horribly, he can bounce back as all the guys above did. Also, Tom Seaver was a freak. The man never had a really terrible stretch. Even his bad stretches weren't that bad. What a ####### weirdo.

10. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: September 05, 2007 at 12:09 AM (#2512415)

Even Pedro had a bad stretch when he was apparently healthy, in late '98. He just couldn't stop giving up gopher balls for a while.

11. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: September 05, 2007 at 12:11 AM (#2512419)

Actually it was May-June, and it was only 4 starts. But for Pedro. . . in his first year in Boston. . .

12. Doc Nabbit Posted: September 05, 2007 at 12:19 AM (#2512426)

I'm not saying he's healthy, but that it's a workable arm injury that he has. I generally consider all dead arm cases to be workable arm injuries. A lot of the examples in post #9 were of guys a year after having heavy workloads.

13. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: September 05, 2007 at 12:28 AM (#2512429)

Oh, I was just adding on to your list, sort of in response to the Seaver comment. By "apparently healthy" I meant possibly/probably some sort of dead-arm situation.

14. Andere Richtingen Posted: September 05, 2007 at 08:15 AM (#2512545)

Is the timeline right here? I thought he started slowing up a start or two before the extention.

Yeah, I don't know what I was thinking. It was on Aug 17 -- three subpar starts before, three since.

15. Andere Richtingen Posted: September 05, 2007 at 08:19 AM (#2512547)

I'm not saying he's healthy, but that it's a workable arm injury that he has

Could be. It's worth noting that in this recent stretch, he's getting strikeouts at right around his career rate, and his velocity seems fine. It's mostly the walks and hits that are killing him.

16. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: September 05, 2007 at 09:53 AM (#2512621)

It seems like in a few of these starts, he's had decent/good outings that are marred by a terrible late inning.

17. (d)re(ck)tro-shiite Posted: September 05, 2007 at 11:06 AM (#2512712)

That fat SOB

I know this was more a throwaway insult than anything else, but he's hardly fat. He's got an odd body shape (huge barrel chest), but he's not fat. And even if one considers him fat, he's pretty damned agile for a fat guy.

18. (d)re(ck)tro-shiite Posted: September 05, 2007 at 11:07 AM (#2512715)

Also, Tom Seaver was a freak. The man never had a really terrible stretch.

He was godawful for pretty much the entire 1982 season. OK, he was past his prime, but he'd been excellent the year before.

19. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 05, 2007 at 11:10 AM (#2512721)

No way is Carlos Zambrano fat. That lad is solid.

Though I would be amused to see the reaction if someone wandered up to Carlos and greeted him with "Graso!"

That's "fatty" in Spanish..............

20. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: September 05, 2007 at 11:28 AM (#2512736)

The boy is just big boned.

21. Ron Johnson Posted: September 05, 2007 at 11:58 AM (#2512777)

Also, Tom Seaver was a freak. The man never had a really terrible stretch.

I found a few stretches of mediocrity, but not too damned many. And only one bad spell in his prime. After his first 10 starts in 1979 he had a 5.68 ERA. And yes, injuries were an issue.

Missed one start in late April and a couple in the middle of May (and in the two starts in between faced a grand total of 13 batters -- didn't get shelled, just couldn't go any further. Makes you wonder why he was out there in the first place.)

Basically Tom Terrific after he got healthy again.

Huh. Didn't think I'd be more impressed by Seaver than I already was.

22. Artie Ziff Posted: September 06, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2514410)

Zambrano being obese has always been a theory on his inconsistency. But there have been plenty of fat pitchers with success. I think he is messed up mentally, but that's nothing Chicago fans have not heard before.

23. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 17, 2007 at 12:41 PM (#2528538)

Yo, I'm going to be in Chicago next month. I will have free evenings from October 14th through the 16th. Here is the announcement thread.

24. bfan Posted: September 17, 2007 at 01:05 PM (#2528570)

In the interest of historical accuracy, Jason Kendell needs to take an open-handed slap across the face by CZ. That wussy move by CZ in the dugout against Barrett had to be one of the weakest fighting moves in the history of MLB. On that performance, I would give Don Zimmer an even chance in a 5 rounder against CZ.

25. Carmona My House (Crispix Attacks) Posted: September 17, 2007 at 01:14 PM (#2528589)

The Cubs should trade for Vicente Padilla so they can have someone to start fights with Zambrano. Somehow they would need to find Padilla a job that doesn't involve actually pitching, though. Bullpen catcher?

26. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: September 17, 2007 at 01:20 PM (#2528595)

Geovany Soto is hitting .423/.483/.692 in a microscopic sample. On the heels of his PCL MVP award, however, this is a highly encouraging development. The kid is Kendall's superior on offense and defense. He needs to play.

And if the Cubs bury him again in 2008 I'm going on a rampage.

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Carlos Zambrano: What the…???

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