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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

GID(Lee)P

As all of us are fully aware, Derrek Lee has had a bit of a GIDP problem this year. He’s up to 24 so far this season, his previous career high was 18 in 2001. He’s hit into a DP once every 21 ABs. There was a pretty interesting discussion of this during Saturday’s game chatter. I thought it would be useful to post several of the comments here where we might get more of a discussion.

SaveUsBullpenJesus asked: How much of Lee’s sudden spike in GIDP is bad luck, and how much is making bad swings, swinging at pitches he shouldn’t be in RISP situations, etc.?

Weeks T. Olive’s answer was:

My guess is that it’s just a combination of things.

His BABIP this season is .319 compared to a career mark of .322. Last season it was .364, but in ‘06 it was .323 and in his monster year of ‘05 it was .343. So his BABIP is down a little this year, but not significantly lower. Interestingly, his BABIP with men on base is higher than when the bases are empty - .337 to .303.

That made me think that it’s almost all a mechanical/decision issue and that I’d see a significant change in his percentage of line drives or ground balls. His LD% is 21.6%, which is actually up slightly from the last two years and only slightly down from ‘05 (last three: 20.6, 20.3, 22).

His GB% this year is 44.7%, which is slightly up from the last three seasons (41.2, 41.3, 38.6).

Short answer is “no clue”, but my WAG from observation is that he’s just hitting everything less hard than in years past and this, combined with the increase in GB%, is causing what we’re seeing.

Any other thoughts?

Moses Taylor: armed with a will, the past, a brick Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:19 PM | 34 comment(s)
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1. VoodooR Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:34 PM (#2916465)

As Weeks says, it is probably a myriad of factors, but one factor jumps immediately to my mind: Lee has come to to bat with a guy on first base more this year than in any other time in his career.

2. Meatwad now with interlock! Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:42 PM (#2916476)

voodoor, i think that may be part of the issue more runners on means more chances to GIDP, but i dont recall lee hitting so many ####### ground balls to players like he is this year, just seems like he really isnt hitting the ball with any power. and with last years power outage i tend to believe his wrist is the biggest cause. do we have any footage to see if lee has changed his swing at all from his monster year? there could be something to that, maybe he has changed it a bit to help out that wrist and thats whats causing the lack of power and more GIDP's

3. SoSH U at work Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM (#2916480)

As Weeks says, it is probably a myriad of factors, but one factor jumps immediately to my mind: Lee has come to to bat with a guy on first base more this year than in any other time in his career.

I suppose one solution then, with GID(Lee) up, is to have that guy on first Take Off.

4. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM (#2916481)

As Weeks says, it is probably a myriad of factors, but one factor jumps immediately to my mind: Lee has come to to bat with a guy on first base more this year than in any other time in his career.

24 GIDP in 236 PA with men on vs. a career of 147 over 2776 PA with men on. It's not that he's hitting into more in total, but that it's at a much higher rate.

5. Dan The Mediocre Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:48 PM (#2916483)

I suppose one solution then, with GID(Lee) up, is to have that guy on first Take Off.

Except Theriot is 19 of 32 on stolen base attempts.

6. With 17th Pick, From LA, 1k5v3L KcoLLoP Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#2916488)

The solution is simple: the players ahead of Lee should stop getting on base.

7. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#2916492)

To be fair, one thing to note about Lee is that he's improved quite a bit as the season's progressed:

March 31 - June 30: 19 GIDP
July 1 - Aug 25: 5 GIDP

Whatever the problem was, it seems to have been corrected at this point. I was surprised at those numbers, though; I still hold my breath every time he comes to the plate with a runner on 1st and less than 2 outs.

8. Andere Richtingen Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#2916494)

If you use runners on first and less than two out as a proxy for double play opportunities, Lee is seeing way more this season than last.

As of game 131 this year, he has 152 PAs with a runner on first and less than two out in 577 total PAs. As of game 131 last year, he had 104 such PAs in 526 total PAs. That's about a third more opportunities.

Again, that doesn't explain all of the increase, and a myriad of factors may be at play, but opportunity is almost certainly the biggest.

9. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:53 PM (#2916493)

His GB% this year is 44.7%, which is slightly up from the last three seasons (41.2, 41.3, 38.6).

Actually, I would consider this fairly significant.

10. Meatwad now with interlock! Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:56 PM (#2916496)

I would really like to see if we could get someone to take a look at his swing from the monster year and compair it to this year to see if there are any differences that could be causing it.

11. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:58 PM (#2916500)

His GB% this year is 44.7%, which is slightly up from the last three seasons (41.2, 41.3, 38.6).

Actually, I would consider this fairly significant.

I don't think I do. If my calcs are correct (never a certain thing), it's about a 15 ground ball difference over the course of 513 ABs (his total this season thus far).

12. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:01 PM (#2916504)

I don't think I do. If my calcs are correct (never a certain thing), it's about a 15 ground ball difference over the course of 513 ABs (his total this season thus far).

That's the difference from '07 and '06, of course. The difference from '05 is about 25 ground balls. That's more, but I don't know that I'd call one extra ground ball every third game 'significant'.

13. Steve Stone 6.10(b) Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:04 PM (#2916506)

Among players with 300 or more plate appearances this year, Lee is not even in the top 30 in double play rate. Ryan Theriot, for example, grounds into double plays more frequently, but he hasn't had as many chances.

Lee's flyball rate is about 5% below his career average, his groundball rate is about 5% above his career average, and his GIDP rate is about 5% above his career average. His line drive rate is right at his career average.

Obviously he needs to hit the ball in the air more often, but that's easier said than done.

It would be interesting to compare his swing this year to that of past years, but it would also be interesting to see if pitchers are pitching him differently this year.

14. Biscuit_pants Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:06 PM (#2916509)

I would really like to see if we could get someone to take a look at his swing from the monster year and compair it to this year to see if there are any differences that could be causing it.

If I remember right the monster year was caused by the fact that he had a hole in his swing that he closed up that year. It took pitchers a while to adjust and find his next biggest weakness and by then he was off to a monstrous year. There still may be a difference in his swing though.

15. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:10 PM (#2916519)

Rather than seeing the difference in his swing from '05 to now, I'd be more interested in seeing the difference from April of this season to now.

In April, it looked like he was perhaps going to make a run at repeating '05. I wonder what, if anything, changed in May and on.

As I mentioned in the post that Moses quotes above, it seems to me from watching him that he's just hitting everything less hard this season (which I would imagine translates to fewer GBs through the infield, though I suppose that would show up in BABIP). He's slugging only .412 since May 1, for instance.

16. Meatwad now with interlock! Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:11 PM (#2916520)

maybe that whole has opened back up. none the less though if this is what were worrying about and its almost september i think were going to be ok.

17. Meatwad now with interlock! Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:14 PM (#2916523)

weeks thats what i mean, perhaps the wrist has sapped the power, or maybe he has changed his swing just a little bit causing more GIDP's and less power overall.

18. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:18 PM (#2916531)

I don't think I do. If my calcs are correct (never a certain thing), it's about a 15 ground ball difference over the course of 513 ABs (his total this season thus far).

That's the difference from '07 and '06, of course. The difference from '05 is about 25 ground balls. That's more, but I don't know that I'd call one extra ground ball every third game 'significant'.

Yes, it's about one extra ground ball every three games. OTOH, what is being discussed is around 7-8 more DPs a season, or one every 3 weeks or so. Could this be because during those 3 weeks he's hit perhaps 10 more ground balls? Yeah, I don't think that's out of the question.

19. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:21 PM (#2916539)

Ok, maybe 10-12 more DPs this season -- or one every 2 weeks, during which time he's hit perhaps 5 ground balls.

I'm not saying that everything can be chalked down to a higher GB rate, but when you combine it with more runners on base ahead of him (and more DP opportunities), you can't ignore it either.

20. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:24 PM (#2916545)

Yes, it's about one extra ground ball every three games. OTOH, what is being discussed is around 7-8 more DPs a season, or one every 3 weeks or so. Could this be because during those 3 weeks he's hit perhaps 10 more ground balls? Yeah, I don't think that's out of the question.

Actually, if you're going to use the GB rate from '05, then you need to use the GIDP rate from that year, also. Comparing '08 and '05, it'll be more like 15 more GIDPs when all is said and done on just an extra ~30 ground balls. Even with the increase in ABs with runners on 1st, that's just not a significant enough number.

Using last year's numbers (more appropriate, I think), it's going to be an extra 10 GIDPs on approximately ~22 ground balls. Again, I don't think that increase in ground balls is significant, especially when he averages 10 ground balls per DP this year.

21. MM1f Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:29 PM (#2916548)

Maybe Lee is slowing down a little bit?
Lee's unusually good speed and general athleticism from the 1b position were always one of his strengths but hes a 32yo, 6-foot-5 first baseman. I'm sure hes lost a step by now which could easily bump the GIDPs up

22. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:29 PM (#2916549)

I'm not saying that everything can be chalked down to a higher GB rate, but when you combine it with more runners on base ahead of him (and more DP opportunities), you can't ignore it either.

Ok, I agree with this; I just disagreed with the 'fairly significant' description.

23. Lassus Posted: August 26, 2008 at 01:29 PM (#2916550)

I suppose one solution then, with GID(Lee) up, is to have that guy on first Take Off.

I got it, SoSH. Even baseball-relevant! ;-)

24. Moses Taylor: armed with a will, the past, a brick Posted: August 26, 2008 at 03:28 PM (#2916663)

Maybe Lee is slowing down a little bit?

I think he definitely has. Going to memory here (which isn't exactly perfect), I don't think he's close to beating any of these out. Most of his DPs were going to be DPs even if he hasn't lost a step.

none the less though if this is what were worrying about and its almost september i think were going to be ok.

CONCUR.

25. DCW3 * Posted: August 26, 2008 at 03:32 PM (#2916668)

The real question is whether Lee can break the NL record. The record is 30, which happens to be exactly what Lee is on pace for.

26. Bunny Vincennes Posted: August 26, 2008 at 03:36 PM (#2916677)

Lee has definitely lost a step. But we are the same age, so I'll give him a pass. But I'd say that a vast, vast number of his GIDPs have nothing to do with his speed, as Moses pointed out. He's still a great glove at 1st. I shouldn't be doing so much handwringing about it, but its frustrating to watch.

27. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 26, 2008 at 03:56 PM (#2916701)

At this point Lee reminds me of Jim Rice, circa 1985-1986. When he hits the ball hard it's on a line or a vicious grounder versus with backspin out of the park. Having slowed a bit and with more guys on base (As Rice was with Boggs) and it's a situation ripe for the double play.

Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one......

28. scotto Posted: August 26, 2008 at 04:26 PM (#2916747)

That's more, but I don't know that I'd call one extra ground ball every third game 'significant'.

T-testing for significance should be fairly simple.

29. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: August 26, 2008 at 06:55 PM (#2916887)

Ok, I agree with this; I just disagreed with the 'fairly significant' description.

And I was taking issue with your description of the increase as "slight." No hitter is going to have 20% GBs or 80% GBs, so within the realm of "realistic possibility," an increase from the 41% range to 44% doesn't strike me as de minimis and may have a role in explaining at least some of the DPs, particularly with more runners on ahead of him.

30. Fred Garvin, Male Prostitute Posted: August 26, 2008 at 06:55 PM (#2916888)

T-testing for significance should be fairly simple.

For you.

31. Walt Davis Posted: August 26, 2008 at 07:33 PM (#2916969)

Lee's unusually good speed and general athleticism from the 1b position were always one of his strengths but hes a 32yo, 6-foot-5 first baseman.

Maybe he's slowed down. But he's 7-2 in SB, on pace for most SB since 2005, has 3 triples (most since 2005) and is looking at 40+ doubles ... so there's not much other evidence that he's slowed down.

Is GB rate calculated per PA, per AB, per contact or per BIP? Even if per PA, a significant change at the .05 level would be about 4%. The other denominators will require higher changes to be significant (smaller sample sizes). Assuming our good friend the binomial distribution is a reasonable approximation.

32. Weeks T. Olive Posted: August 27, 2008 at 01:25 AM (#2918241)

And I was taking issue with your description of the increase as "slight." No hitter is going to have 20% GBs or 80% GBs, so within the realm of "realistic possibility," an increase from the 41% range to 44% doesn't strike me as de minimis and may have a role in explaining at least some of the DPs, particularly with more runners on ahead of him.

*Yawn* Arguing for argument's sake. I said in the original post that I thought a number of things, "combined with the increase in GB%" was responsible for the increase in GIDP.

Is GB rate calculated per PA, per AB, per contact or per BIP? Even if per PA, a significant change at the .05 level would be about 4%. The other denominators will require higher changes to be significant (smaller sample sizes). Assuming our good friend the binomial distribution is a reasonable approximation.

The Hardball Times GB% that I used above is calculated per batted ball.

33. BobbyMac Posted: August 27, 2008 at 12:01 PM (#2918561)

As of game 131 this year, he has 152 PAs with a runner on first and less than two out in 577 total PAs. As of game 131 last year, he had 104 such PAs in 526 total PAs. That's about a third more opportunities.

May I ask where you get this split data, please?

34. BobbyMac Posted: September 03, 2008 at 10:12 PM (#2928402)

For the record, I found GDP situation split data at SI.com, of all places. e.g.:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/players/5775/season_by_all_batting_splits.html

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GID(Lee)P

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