National League Strength of Schedule

Creating an accurate view of the prospective strength of schedule for the National League requires something of an adjustment rather than a flat comparison of upcoming opponents’ win percentage. To this end, I’ve slapped something together which replaces team win percentage with a more accurate indicator which accounts for the unbalanced schedules. This can be done by eliminating inter-league games and making a divisional adjustment: compile a team’s record within their own division and slice it in half. Our Unbalanced Schedule Adjustment system may not totally negate the schedule issues but it should create a more accurate picture of opponent strength than simple win percentage. For example: the Cubs are (as of Monday August 6th) 58-52. Their inter-league record was 8-4 and their record within the NL Central stands at 24-20. The Cubs’ USA comes out to 38-38 after subtracting the 8-4 play against the American League and subtracting 12 wins and 10 losses from divisional play. The second step is to multiply out those USAs (the acronym is unintentional, I promise) against the number of times a team will be faced. The USA win percentage of the team’s upcoming opponents shakes out thusly:

CHC:   .459
MIL:   .462
NYM:   .490
STL:   .491
HOU:   .496
ATL:   .497
ARI:   .498
CIN:   .500
PIT:   .501
LAD:   .503
SFG:   .503
PHI:   .504
COL:   .517
WAS:   .521
FLA:   .522
SDP:   .526

As everyone can see, the Cubs have the easiest schedule going forward. Also noteworthy is the high positioning of the NL Central generally. The toughest road in the division belongs to Pittsburgh and their opponents are a mild .501 after the USA. This result is due to the poor quality of the NL Central in 2007 (a paltry 168 - 215 against the rest of the NL). It's a little something to keep in mind when projecting the talent levels of the Cubs and Brewers.