Notes
Well, it is starting to become second nature to say, but here goes: Cubs Win! With tonight’s 6-3 victory over the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Cubs have won 11 of 15. Of course, the club only has fifty games remaining and are 9 1/2 games out in the wild card race (and trail every other team in the wild card standings except for the Pirates). This hasn’t stopped the competitive juices in Dusty from stirring. Dusty has to feel good now that he has a real, no-foolin’, fine and dandy number two hitter in Izturis - ahhh, a .240/.296/.280 line goes down like Turkish Delight followed by a cinnamon-flavored toothpick.
Carlos Marmol had another so-so outing. At this point, it’s pretty clear that Marmol needs some work at Triple A before he can be considered a real option for the rotation. With the four walks he gave up in 5 1/3 innings tonight, he is now sporting a 51/47 K/BB ratio in only 63 2/3 innings of work. He has also given up 10 homers. The bullpen was more than solid, throwing scoreless baseball and striking out six in the remaining 3 2/3 innings after Marmol left. Ryan Dempster has now saved ten games in a row and, even more impressive, Mike Wuertz has posted a 13/4 K/BB ratio in 10 innings since his return from Iowa last month. Although he gave up an inherited run tonight, Wuertz hasn’t allowed an earned run since he made it back to the big leagues.
With the discussion about Paul Sullivan’s Pierre article underway at the newsblog thread, I won’t belabor how ridiculous an idea it would be to give Juan Pierre any kind of long-term deal. After a dismal start, Pierre is now posting an EQA of .245. His BB rate continues to decline, he’s at best an average defender with a noodle arm that would make the Flying Spaghetti Monster (pbuh) proud, and he’s on pace to make well over 500 outs this season. Pierre’s base thievery is about the only thing he brings to the table. One interesting thought that came up on the thread (by Sweet I believe) is to use Angel Pagan as a stop gap next season in CF, giving Pie additional seasoning in Iowa. I’ve been critical of Baker for giving Pagan playing time instead of Murton in LF, but as a center fielder Pagan is much more attractive. He’s cheap, he switch hits, he has some pop, and he has put up solid numbers this year (albeit in a small sample size). Best of all, he looks to be an excellent defender, as BPro has him notching 16 runs above average in CF last year in Norfolk, as well as being well above average in his short time in LF/RF for the Cubs. Pagan has obviously made a good impression on Baker, but this little gem from Paul Sullivan’s article makes Angel’s efforts pale in comparison to Monsieur Pierre’s
“Pierre may also factor in whether manager Dusty Baker returns. The two have forged a close bond, and if Baker doesn’t get a new deal, Pierre could join him on the way out of town-or at least out of the North Side.”
If the Hendry really is “desperate” to resign Pierre, as Sullivan claims, this Siamese twin act will hopefully complicate matters. Sadly, the worst case scenario of Dusty and Juan in Cub uniforms through 2011, at a cost of $12 million a year combined, is probably the most likely knowing ol’ Jim like we do.
Zambrano will try to recover from a shaky outing last Friday as he goes up against Dave Bush tomorrow evening. Mark Prior takes on Doug Davis on Thursday.
Finally, a couple of blog-related notes. Scott Lange will no longer be affiliated with Gonfalon Cubs - I appreciate his work and his invitation to help start this blog last winter. In his place I’d like to welcome Mike McCullough as a new contributor to the blog. Mike (posting under the handle “From the keyboard of dJf") has made a number of contributions in the comments since this blog took flight and he’s going to be a great addition. Mike Isaacs and I will take over as co-editors for the time being, and there is a good chance we will add an additional editor over the next few months. Lastly, I have retired the rossbarnes handle and taken my real name as a screen name to keep things consistent here. I was also concerned that the real Ross, he of fair-foul rule legend, was rolling over in his grave with every keystroke I entered.
Luke Jasenosky
Posted: August 08, 2006 at 11:27 PM |
23 comment(s)
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Watching Marmol pitch gives me headaches. His stuff is great but he just cannot seem to do anything consistent. The one thing that gives me hope is the fact that his wildness seems to be in the area that he is working on batter. Meaning that when he is working a hitter low and in he seems to be missing low and in and when he is working the hitter high and outside his pitches are missing high and outside. This is something that is correctable. If he was working the batter low and inside and was missing high or outside that would be a lot more worrisome. In short (too late) his wildness reminds me more of Zambrano than Wood. Zambrano learned to real it in a bit as he got more experience where Wood never did. Here's hoping that Marmol's wildness can be fixed with some experience and, gulp, someone actually working with him.
I think most pitchers who make it to the big leagues have good enough stuff to win. The question is whether they can develop the control and command which is also required to win in the Show. Many many pitchers never do, or are derailed from doing so by injuries. There are some pitchers who have such great stuff that they can win even without good control/command, but they are few and far between. None of the Cubs young pitchers fit that category, and so I am wary of predicting success for any of these guys just based on having pretty good stuff. I certainly would not assume a slot for next year for any of them.
That is an interesting idea. His Pecota projection on offense for next year is going to be about the same as Pierre's, and his fielding is apparently better. Still, having Pagan as a regular is not exactly how you build a winning team, although they could put the money saved on Pierre to good use. It's also possible that Pie should get a strong opportunity to start in '07. If he has as much ability as advertised, he should be as good or better than Pagan/Pierre, even if he is not yet fully "seasoned".
Indeed. A welcome change.
Other good stuff in there about Girardi and the Cubs, and the wave at Wrigley.
Give him two spots in the rotation, one as a RHP, one as a LHP.
But do we have to refer to him by his real name? If so, I am willing to go back only as far as "True Blue".
Barring a miraculous addition of a star CFer, I like this idea, assuming Pagan can play the position competently. Can he?
And we *know* he has a better arm than Jones.
As I mentioned in the post, BPro has him significantly above average as a center fielder for Norfolk last year. A recent profile of him here is also very positive:
http://mets.scout.com/2/490089.html
There seems to be some disagreement on his arm, as I've seen it described as "strong" as well as "mediocre". It isn't hard to imagine that he's superior to Pierre defensively, and can probably put up similar numbers offensively (maybe with 10-15 homers - Pagan was originally projected to be a power bat, but the power has been slow to come. With his performance so far as a Cub, it looks like he might be finding it now). All in all, it's likely he'd play as well as Pierre, and with Pierre looking at $7-8 million per year, that would be some real savings to use on a Schmidt or Zito...Ha, had you going there! Ol' Jimmy knows better. That kind of cash could lock up Mabry for years to come!
BPro had him as +16 in CF at AAA last season. This season's RF Rate2 is 130. Caveats do apply about statistical flukes, one year sample sizes and the unreliability of BPro's numbers, but I think it's likely that Pagan could hack it in CF. He certainly has the speed.
As others have mentioned, his bat couldn't be worse than Pierre's right now. Pagan has put up minor league Eqas in the .250s the last two seasons. And if this season is any indication, he has a bit of offensive upside. For me, the main obstacle would be getting past my own perception of Pagan as a 4th OF.
That's kind of what I was thinking. Seeing him play this year it seems that he is capable of making some great plays, but also capable of making major mistakes. My inclination is to think it's worth taking a chance.
As others have mentioned, his bat couldn't be worse than Pierre's right now. Pagan has put up minor league Eqas in the .250s the last two seasons. And if this season is any indication, he has a bit of offensive upside. For me, the main obstacle would be getting past my own perception of Pagan as a 4th OF.
That's what I would be thinking. I think this is a good idea only if you consider him to be a stopgap, and a better idea than signing Juan Pierre. If the Cubs are going to any good next season, it is unlikely to be the result of Pagan in CF.
In other words, either a "huge, mongo, intergalactic-co-mega-improvement" on Pierre's, or merely a "huge improvement."
If the Cubs are going to be bad next season, it's doubtful that it will be the result of Pagan in CF. I'd peg him for a .255 Eqa with average defense in CF. That should be plenty since the CF average is 259. With Pagan in CF, the Cubs could be average or better at every position except SS and 2B next season.
If they would only platoon Jacque Jones, then RF, 1B, C and 3B could all be well above average. Maybe even above average enough to offset the Izturis / Cedeno middle infield.
It's always weird to see the real name of a regular poster. I had always pictured dJf as a long-haired, bearded guy standing at shortstop thrusting religious pamphlets at every baserunner that passed his way. Now that I know his real name, it will be harder to maintain that image.
Having met him, I never had that image, but now that you mention it I am going to do my best to think of him that way.
If the Cubs are going to be bad next season, it's doubtful that it will be the result of Pagan in CF. I'd peg him for a .255 Eqa with average defense in CF. That should be plenty since the CF average is 259.
I think that's a reasonable projection, and I agree with your assessment, although I think there is a significant chance that this would be a disaster. Again, probably worth taking a chance.
With Pagan in CF, the Cubs could be average or better at every position except SS and 2B next season.
Well, I suppose they could easily be average or better there too, but they could be below average at all of the OF positions, SS and 2B.
The problem, looking at the offensive side of the ledger, is the potential lack of star power, even if they do manage to get average or better perfomances at all positions. Lee might be more like the hitter he was prior to 2005. Ramirez could see decline, and I'll be surprised to see this kind of performance from Michael Barrett again. If you put average players at every other position, the offense still might not be that good, and there are major pitching concerns.
Sounds like you're going to take it one post at a time; let the blog come to you. The biggest change is the speed of the site -- when you get the keys, you have to figure out a way to slow things down.
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