Offseason thoughts

I’ve been meaning to post something for a while now, but haven’t gotten around to it for one reason or another.  Things got pretty ugly in Cubs threads around here, mirroring the Cubs’ postseason performance.  I think we were all incredibly disappointed, and quite frankly, I’m still not sure how to feel about this season.  The pathetic end to the season really left a sour taste in my mouth after the brilliance of the regular season.  I can’t bring myself to write a rational “What went wrong?” post, so I’ll post some hot stove stuff and see where it takes me.

I was shaken out of my writing apathy because of this Paul Sullivan article on the Cubs’ pursuit of Jake Peavy.  From what I can gather from elsewhere, the Braves are the favorites to land the Cy Young award winner.  The Padres sound like they prefer the Braves’ prospects to the Cubs’, although it’s been tough to nail down exactly what the Cubs are offering (I’ve seen all of the following players mentioned at least once: Pie, Cedeno, Samardizja, Vitters, Castillo, Marshall, Hill).  There’s been lots of talk about a 3rd team to help the Cubs and Braves match up, but I’ve yet to see a third team mentioned.  Anyway, this paragraph jumped out at me:

If the Cubs up the ante for Peavy, they could lose one ace while getting another in return, although it should be noted that Peavy has twice been on the disabled list with elbow soreness, and, like Rich Harden, has been given extra days of rest at times. Peavy has a 3.64 earned-run average on four days’ rest and 2.77 on extra rest.

What now?  First off, Dempster isn’t an ace.  He had a great year, but it likely was a career year.  He’s 31 and just had his best season, BY FAR.  Peavy is 27, and he’s had 4 seasons better than what Dempster did last year.  There is no comparison between the 2.  Losing Dempster and gaining Peavy would be a HUGE upgrade.  Second, comparing Peavy’s and Harden’s injury histories (without even mentioning Dempster’s) is at best misleading and at worst blatantly lying.  Sullivan also drops the nugget that the Cubs have already offered Dempster a 4yr, $50mil deal but that he’s likely to get more from another team.  I think my limit for him would have been around 3yr/$35mil to 4yr/$45mil, and I would have spent the entire contract wondering how big of a mistake it would turn out to be.  I think the Cubs shouldn’t offer a dime more. 

As the case with everyone here, I’d absolutely love to see Peavy on the Cubs.  Personally, I don’t have a problem with giving up top prospect Vitters for him.  My only regret is that the Cubs are likely selling low on Pie (again, after potentially ruining him).  Even though Soto’s turned out to be a success (and congrats to the Don on his well deserved ROY award), I still have serious doubts that the Cubs can produce a position player star.  If the Cubs lose out on Peavy, I predict they give Dempster whatever he wants to come back. 

Other random thoughts.  I’ve seen Abreu’s name mentioned a couple of times as a potential RF.  As long as the price is right, I’m all for that.  His power isn’t what it once was, and he’s not the greatest defender (IIRC, his reputation is worse than his actual numbers though).  But’s he’s an everyday LH batter.  I’ve mentioned this before: I fully support a Fukudome/Johnson CF platoon next season (thanks for the great year, TOFU, but don’t let the door hit you on the way out).  I’ve read that Furcal has been approached by 10 teams, and I’m hoping the Cubs are one of them.  They likely don’t see the need to upgrade at SS, but the upgrade from Theriot to Furcal would be significant.  DeRosa won’t repeat his career year, but between him and Fontenot the Cubs should get above average production at 2b again next season.  I expect Blanco to return as the backup C, and I welcome that move.  I don’t want to see Hendry sign a big deal for any relievers, although I’d love to see Wood back (that’s more my heart than my head talking, but I can live with a $10mil/year deal for him).