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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, September 29, 2008Quick thoughts on the NLDSI don’t have a lot of time to get all my thoughts down, but I wanted to at least start a thread where we can discuss this matchup. Lots of previews all over the place, but I’ll link to the MLB page for the series.
Game 1, Wed 5:30pm local start time. Dempster vs. Lowe
I think the Cubs have the edge in all of the starting matchups, *IF* Zambrano doesn’t implode. I am a little worried about him, but do think he’ll work things out and at least be somewhat effective. The offense just needs to play the way they’re capable of, and hopefully the minor injuries to DeRosa and Soto don’t slow them down. I read somewhere that if DeRosa can’t go, Fukudome will get the start in RF. That leads me to believe Fontenot will be starting at 2b against righties in the playoffs, and I fully support this. The weakest link in the Cubs right now might be their bullpen, but even then Marmol should still be lights out. We have plenty to complain about with Howry and Marquis making the roster, but if either of them are pitching the game should already be out of reach. I’ve been very forgiving of Lou all season, but if we see Howry in a tight game the gloves will come off. Prediction: Cubs in 3. Moses Taylor's bus bench has been Tom Sellecked
Posted: September 29, 2008 at 10:43 AM | 42 comment(s)
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Lou certainly knows more than I do, but I'd rather have both Pie and Hoff and skip Ward.
When you like a guy, you really like a guy. :) Sorry, but he hasn't shown much of anything this month (not that he's gotten a lot of chances). It should be Wuertz. If Guadin is healthy, it would be him. But everyone, expect Lou, agrees it shouldn't be Howry.
Marmol's gonna get a lot of work this month, so I hope nothing important comes down to any of those guys at the end of the pen. If so, we're in trouble.
He has also been golden down the stretch, so I understand why he might pitch game 1. Plus his sinker at times has been worse with 'too much' rest.
Well, he looked fantastic yesterday, but you're right.
Predicting a sweep? Now that's optimistic (and ballsy).
I'm incredibly nervous about this series. The Cubs should win and they're certainly a better team that the Dodgers ... BUT I don't know. The regulars (excepting Ramirez) have not looked good recently (BTW, how fitting was it that Derrek DP'd to end the regular season?), the relievers haven't looked good, and who knows what we're going to get out of Z.
That being said, I do think the Cubs will win. I've just got a major case of the butterflies already.
The Mets are a much better opponent then the Dodgers right now.
Stick to what you do best, I say. I'm just antsy to get this started. This is going to be a long wait until the game starts Wednesday. Late games Thursday and Saturday will make those long days as well.
Zen-like calm, and pedal to the metal.
I'm not nervous at all. The Dodgers remind me a lot of the 2007 Cubs; a flawed team who got hot in September after hovering around .500 all year and won a weak division to get to the postseason. Granted, Manny was a bit of a better trade pickup than Jason Kendall. :)
Yes, I'm worried about DeRo's and Soto's injuries, and, yes, certain regulars have looked pretty bad the last week or so (Z for the last month). But remember everyone looking at the schedule at the end of August and proclaiming that it was going to be "Hell Month" for the Cubs? Nothing but games vs. teams with winning records and most of them on the road? The team went 14-14 during that stretch; and most of those games were in the midst of the club playing its worst ball of the year AND playing the "B" team for the last 8 games (which went 4-4).
Would anyone here trade the Cubs roster right now for any of the other teams? The Dodgers or Brewers? Hell, no. The Phillies? Maybe. We do have home field, which is huge; I know, I know, 2003, but I'd much rather have game 6 & 7 at Wrigley than CBP. They're the one team in the NL that has a realistic chance of beating us. But, hey, it wouldn't be fun if it was easy, right?
I think the Cubs are the best team. I think they're the most balanced team. Sure, no one really knows how the "iffiness" of the last week or so, (esp. the bullpen) will translate to the playoffs. But I have to think the Cubs will play more in line with the way they did for five and a half months, rather than the past week or two.
The best team doesn't always win, but that's the way to bet.
Cubs in 4.
per chi trib
Then again, there's the potential of Hawk and Dave Wills.
VERY THANKS WHY NOT JUST RUB SALT IN THE WOUND NOW OK THANKS
Ugh. I would rather listen to Chip Caray than listen to Dick Stockton. I really mean that.
Look at their schedules though - in September here's who LA played (w/ opponent's seasonal W/L Pct in paranthesis):
San Diego - 9 games (.389)
San Fransico - 6 games (.444)
Pittsburgh - 4 games (.414)
Colorado - 3 games (.371)
Arizona - 3 games (.506)
And here's the Cubs - this should be less surprising:
Cards - 6 games (.531)
Brewers - 6 games (.556)
Astros - 5 games (.534)
Mets - 4 games (.549)
Reds - 3 games (.457)
Average winning percentage of Dodger opponent in September: .428
Average winning percentage of Cub opponent in September: .532
Basically, LA spent the month playing a 69-93 team while the Cubs had the entire time againsst an 86-76 squad.
Also, LA ended August facing the Nationas, the worst team in the NL. The Cubs ended August playing the Phillies, the best rival team in the NL.
Just thought I'd share.
Actually, if you think about it, Arizona is the only team with a better record, and their record was front-loaded with wins.
From May 1-onward, Arizona was 62-72.
From May 1-onward, Cincinnati was 62-71.
Not only that:
Dodgers record 08/30-09/13: 12-1
Dodgers record 09/14-09/28: 7-7
Cubs record 08/30-09/13: 3-8
Cubs record 09/14-09/28: 9-6
On 09/13 the Cubs had a 6 game lead while the Dodgers were ahead 4.5 games. Neither team exactly had to bust it to the finish line.
So how "hot", exactly, are the Dodgers right now?
I think the big problem is that we haven't seen a meaningful game, from the Cubs point of view, in 10 days. Sure, the games against the Mets and Brewers were "interesting", in a clinical way, same with Tigers/White Sox yesterday and Twins/White Sox today. But it's just not the same if you're not emotionally invested in the outcome.
Dude, they're not that bad. They finished 74-88, same as the Reds, which messes up your point in No. 27 a little bit, too.
Pie over Hoffpauir and Samardzija over Gaudin (the latter info was in a separate article).
I'm shocked Pie made it over Hoffpauir though I understand why the decision was made.
I think the Dodgers best chance to steal a game is tonight, if Lowe's sinker is working. Cooler weather, wind should be blowing in. But that'll help Dempster as well. For no apparent reason, I have completely confidence and peace in Zambrano tomorrow.
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