Tasty veteran goodness provides toothpick immunity
Neifi Perez played second base today, batted second and went 0-4. By this point in time, any lingering animosity directed towards Dusty Baker for any of these facts has probably dissipated in all but the most ardent Dusty critics. As one of those critics, I was rather annoyed when I saw the line-up for a number of reasons that have slowly evolved and changed over the past year and a half. First of all, and a surprise only to those fans whose cornfields called out to clones of Bill Bergen instead of Joe Jackson and his teammates, Perez is an awful hitter. His numbers this year are some of the worst of his career: .256/.267/.357; he has sucked up over 200 plate appearances. Of course, Dusty would probably counter that he likes Neifi because he makes contact and plays great defense. Well, the first claim is true (although that fact was, at best, a mixed blessing last year when Perez grounded into 22 double plays). However, most metrics have Perez’s defense in decline, and anyone who has watched some Cubs’ games this season can tell you about a number of costly errors Perez has committed. Today, at the plate, he was especially useless. In his second at-bat he stood at home plate as his weak line drive short-hopped Scott Rolen, and, as Tim McCarver stated, was out at first by 87 feet. In his next AB, after Juan Pierre had tripled to lead off the inning, Perez hacked away at a high fastball on the first pitch and popped up, failing to advance the runner. Are those sub-rookie level mistakes going to take some shine off Perez in Baker’s eyes? I doubt it. As is well known, Baker has his favorites, and Neifi is one of them. He can do no wrong. Ryan Theriot should just fester away on the end of the bench. Todd Walker, who is obviously one of the best trading chips the Cubs’ have, sits on the pine in another game preceding the trade deadline. Mike Fontenot continues to swing a hot bat in Iowa and that’s where he stays.
Another one of Dusty’s favorites is the mighty Angel Pagan. I’m surprised the men in white coats didn’t take Dusty away earlier this season when he mentioned Pagan in the same breath with Derrek Lee when talking about how costly injuries had devastated the club. Pagan did nothing in the minor leagues to justify the excessive play he is now getting over Matt Murton (Murton is a few months younger and his minor league stats are clearly superior to those of Pagan). Of course, Pagan had a great spring and has speed (although he’s a mediocre base-stealer), so he’s instantly a heartthrob in Dusty’s eyes. It is really amazing that when Baker actually does play youngsters (and he obviously never fails to mention that fact to reporters), he plays the wrong ones. Pagan/Bynum over Murton/Restovich. Sure Murton has been a modest disappointment - but just when he starts to heat up a bit (as he has in July) he sits in favor of an inferior player with an inferior track record. The criticisms leveled at Baker usually include condemnation of his veteran-friendly ways. Perez obviously fits that bill. However, that isn’t the whole story. The real criticism of Baker should be aimed at his warped view of what makes a player valuable. Whether 20 or 40 (see Shawon Dunston), Baker will be much more lenient with a guy who can run a little and make contact. It stifles the development of more deserving players while simultaneously making the team worse. This is a major reason why I was infuriated at Hendry’s announcement that Baker will remain in Chicago for the rest of this year (at least). At least with Mike Quade at the helm for sixty games, these type of shenanigans could be avoided.
The Cubs are 12-8 since they beat Houston 1-0 on July 5th. Michael Barrett, Aramis Ramirez and Juan Pierre have led the attack. The club has outscored its opponents 92-83 over that time - that averages out to 4.6 runs per game, well above their rate through July 4th of 4 runs per game. Pierre’s hot streak is a concern, as it has increased his numbers to .283/.327/.382. That’s a tolerable line, especially to an organization that looks at batting average before OBP. Pierre’s walk rate is the lowest of his career, so a change of luck will show up quickly in his numbers. He should definitely not be resigned this off-season.
Zambrano versus Carpenter tomorrow. It doesn’t get much better than that these days.
Luke Jasenosky
Posted: July 29, 2006 at 08:22 PM |
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To be honest, I'm surprised at how well Pagan has played. A couple ugly misplays aside, Pagan's defense looks good enough that he could be a legitimate option as a fifth OF. And with a little offensive growth he could be a decent fill-in CF for a year or two.
I know this is going to sound redundant or superflous, but I can only see one scenario that would justify having Neifi in the starting lineup this season -- Cedeno is hurt, can't play, and Neifi is needed at SS. I cannot think of any justification to start him at 2B.
I know this is a broken record, but let's look at the circumstances:
* Neifi sucks and will neither improve nor be a starter of any contending Cubs team
* The team is hopelessly out of any semblance of playoff contention
* Hendry came out this week and squeched all talk of Dusty losing his job this year
* Though Hendry says the team should be trying to win, even he talks about wanting to get a look at kids
Other than a crippling injury to Neifi, what else would it take for Dusty to possibly be looking for as a basis to start Theriot (if not Walker)?
I'm serious. If a reporter asks Dusty after the game why Neifi started at 2B today, what could Dusty possibly say?
Let me state this in still another way: If Dusty wants to try to win, he'd start Walker. If he's trying to get a look at the future, he'd start Theriot.
What's the basis for starting Neifi?
As for Pagan, I don't mind seeing him and do think he may have some value and a future. The problem is that the value he'll likely have is as a 4th outfielder, and Dusty is auditioning him to the same level as Murton.
Some of that is obviously Dusty's fault, for the reasons Ross describes, particularly Dusty's penchant for fast defensive guys, even if they don't hit. OTOH, part of it is also Murton's fault -- let's face it, his defense has been atrocious and his bat has been silent for much of the season.
At this point, I still want to see what Murton can do, but if the Cubs were to go out and get a legitimate corner OF bat (i.e., not a Todd Hollandsworth or Jody Gerut), I'd be all for it.
As for Restovich, can we give that a rest already? Yes he's hitting well in Iowa (.281/.369.531), but he's not a "youngster" anymore -- he's 27. He may deserve a spot on the team as a bench guy over the likes of Mabry, but he's certainly not a guy I'd be looking at in the long term.
Two other notes:
1. Pierre is always a guy to whom "a change of luck will show up quickly in his numbers," regardless of what his walk rate has done this season. It's always been low. OTOH, Felix Pie is not major-league ready and the Cubs may be in a position this offseason where there is no one truly better out there. If push comes to shove and they are able to resign Pierre on a one year deal, I wouldn't object all that strongly.
2. Pat Hughes observed yesterday that the Cubs record this month is 13-11, so even if they lose today and Monday, they will still be .500 this month. I fear that this will be the rallying cry to keep the regime in place -- yes, they were awful when everyone is hurt, but in the second half, they played .500 ball.
I'm shuddering about this message, particularly in light of the fact that Hendry himself said that "79 wins is not acceptable," but if the Cubs continue to tread water as they have the last few weeks, I'm fearing we'll start hearing this message.
Most Cubs fans on BTF wouldn't object either, but Pierre has always been overrated to a large extent, so you know there's a GM dumb enough to put out a 4/30 offer.
Essentially, just what he did with Jones.
We all know this organization does not believe in changes but this is starting to look ridiculous
80 minutes, Jimbo!
I've posted this somewhere else, but I am going to hold *you* personally responsible if the Cubs re-up Dusty. Well, that's harsh, but I'll remind you every day that you didn't want him fired when we had the chance.
Since we are taking this from the other thread, though, let me reiterate my response:
It wasn't that I was *against* his firing, per se; it was that I didn't see much point in it happening in July. Furthermore, in several places in the Nine Innings thread, such as Post Nos. 37, 47, and 57, I observed that the only real worry would be that if he were to somehow pull a rabbit out of the hat and get the club to play at a level that would justify him staying.
I just didn't think the Cubs would turn things around. In fact, I still don't. Not only do I not believe that playing .500 is "turning it around," but I'm not at all convinced that the Cubs will manage to tread water the rest of the way anyway.
Of course, if we had a sane GM, then he'd be looking at the previous year and a half much more than at July 2006. Instead, though, we have Jim Hendry; that's my fear.
Actually, let me be more specific: If Hendry re-ups Dusty, I don't think he'll do it because the Cubs played .500 in July (or August or September); it will be because he believes that Dusty is the best guy for the job. If Hendry re-ups Dusty, it would be because once Lee, Wood, and Prior went down, Hendry essentially wrote off the rest of this season, so the fact that they played .500 in July is just as irrelevant to Hendry as what happened in May/June.
That leads to the question of why they didn't re-up Dusty months ago, but we've been asking ourselves that for a while. Hendry's just an idiot.
I'll remember that when I read 50 quotes from Hendry about how much improved the Cubs were in the second half.
If the Cubs break-even in the second half, I'm sure we'll hear a lot about it. That was my point in Post #4.
If he re-ups Dusty, Hendry may also talk about the second-half record it to justify the decision to the media (which is what I was mentioning in Post #4), but I doubt it will actually be the basis of his decision.
IOW, I don't believe that Hendry is sitting on the fence, waiting to see the team's W/L in the second half. I'm sure he's made his decision already, and if they play well in the second half, it will be yet another justification Hendry will point to.
You're almost certainly right.
OTOH, should the Cubs continue to stumble along as they have in the last week, profiting from nice individual performances and capitalizing on the other teams' out-of-character mistakes (see Rolen, S.), and play roughly .500 ball without Derrek Lee, then I think that Dusty is not only re-upped but gets himself an ill-deserved raise.
Yeah, I remember that at one point Saturday, I heard a commentator (McCarver, Santo, or Hughes) talk about the fact that the Cubs were extremely lucky to benefit from a one-in-a-million error from a Gold Glover like Rolen (or words to that effect).
It was especially funny because not only did they benefit from an error on Friday, but it was a 9th inning error in this game that allowed the Cubs to send it to extra innings (and later win it).
If he re-ups Dusty, Hendry may also talk about the second-half record it to justify the decision to the media (which is what I was mentioning in Post #4), but I doubt it will actually be the basis of his decision.
My feeling is that the ownership of this PR driven franchise would not have allowed an extension were this a 100 or 95 loss team despite Hendry's feelings that Baker is the man for the job. As I've said before, however, the dead cat bounce alone will probably be justification enough.
In fact, other than the possibility of Prior returning to form or one of the kids breaking through on the mound, I see very little upside for the team over the next few months. IOW, it's quite possible that we'll be seeing a steady diet of games like last night, or like we saw in May/June.
As it stands now, the team is on pace for a 66-96 record. Although BPro projects them for 70 wins, I think the chances of 100 losses are better than the chances of 70 wins.
If so, I think Dusty's sealed his fate, regardless of how much time he gives to the kids or how well they play. No matter how much they talk about injuries, rookies, or lack of clutch hitting, it's awfully hard to spin the worst record in 25-40 years, especially when just months earlier, the team proclaimed that "79 wins is not acceptable."
My hope is that when Dusty is shown the door, Hendry goes with him. Fat chance.
Yes, I realize that just two days ago, I mentioned my concern that the team would brag about their winning record in July, and keep bragging about it if it continues into August and September. I still believe that's true; it's just that I think the chances of their success continuing are pretty remote.
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