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Gonfalon Cubs
— Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans
— Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans
Thursday, June 22, 2006
The evolution of an ace
Carlos Zambrano really showed something last night. After being staked to an eight run lead in the top of the third, Zambrano, clearly lacking his best stuff, bore down and tossed four additional quality innings. He has now notched nine quality starts out of his last ten efforts and is ranked fourth in VORP in the NL. As the team collapsed, and Greg Maddux began to struggle, Carlos took charge and solidified his proper place as the Cubs’ number one starter.
With the seven-inning game last night and the day off today, the bullpen will be rested for Prior’s start on Friday. Johan Santana is scheduled to start for the Twins and he is back to his dominating ways this month. With his control, I’ll be shocked if the Cubs see more than two three-ball counts all evening.
Rich Hill twirled seven scoreless innings last night against Omaha (who, at 28-44, are following in their big league club’s steps admirably). Hill allowed four hits and struck out 10 without walking a batter. He is now second in the PCL in ERA, second in strikeouts, first in WHIP, and has given up only one homer in 63.2 innings. With Wood out indefinately, the fifth spot in the rotation is back on the table. Wade Miller is beginning his rehab but is obviously a mystery at this point. Marmol, Guzman and Hill are all possibilities. At this point, I’d prefer to see Marmol and Guzman pitch regularly in Triple A and give Hill fifteen starts and a final chance to show what he can do in the big leagues. If he can’t translate his minor league success into major league success with that opportunity, the Cubs can go into 2007 with a clearer picture of the real candidates for the rotation.
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I'm not entirely sure the Cubs haven't given up on Hill. Sending him to AAA again and again is pointless - we all know he can dominate there. Either you give him a shot at the majors or you just accept that you don't think he can cut it. Calling him up for 1 start and a couple of relief appearances and sitting on the bench 70% of the time doesn't really do anything either. Given all of the starting pitching problems we've had this year, I'm still surprised that they're more than willing to give Glendon Rusch multiple chances to give up more HRs than IP, but they're not willing to let guys like Hill and Williams pitch every fifth day for more than a couple of weeks at a time. It's just baffling.
Not really. Glendon Rusch has over 8 years of MLB experience and is earning $6mm over this and next season. Rich Hill and Jerome Williams make the minimum and have option(s) left for this season.
Yeah, but those are bad reasons. Just because someone is getting a big check doesn't mean you have to keep him in the rotation or even on the team. Why compound the mistake of giving Rusch a big contract by letting him throw as many bad innings as possible? It's like compounding the signing (and resigning) of Neifi Perez by putting him in the lineup and batting him at the top of the order.
Case in point - Jason Johnson. $4M this year with options and incentives that could have taken it over $11M. But he stunk up the joint, and the team dumped him. Where is that attitude on the Cubs? For us, no matter how much you suck your job is safe - unless you're a rookie, in which case you should always keep one eye over your shoulder for the next worthless veteran signing that will put you on the first plane back to Iowa.
*throws chair*
*throws multiple chairs*
*clubs baby seal*
Grrr.
Come on, now. Is the Royals joke needed? The future's all we got. Well, there's always Wichita.
Are we watching the same organization?
You began this by saying you're surprised that Rusch is getting all these chances, saying that it's baffling. Given this organization, I don't believe it's baffling in the least.
I also don't believe it's right either, but that's beside the point (and certainly beside any moves Hendry has made in nearly two years).
I'm not really surprised so much as bitterly disappointed and bitterly angry and bitterly bitter.
I empathize, but, as a Cub fan, I feel I have the right to make fun of the Royals, especially as they are neck and neck with us in offensive futility. Neifi (a former Royal I'm sorry to remind you) might have changed all that, though, with his five total bases last night! That guarantees at least twenty starts in the two-hole for sure!
As for Hill, you are right that he dominated PCL hitters last year as well. It's interesting, however, that he's even better this year - a lower WHIP and significantly lower homer rate. Heck, if and when Hill returns to Chicago, he should probably pack Alan Dunn into his suitcase.
By the way, Juan Pierre has moved up to fifth on the Hacking Mass Index. I'm going to a Cubs-Brewers game two weeks from Saturday and I'm tempted to bring a Juan Hack-o-meter to the game.
That's the rub -- if the D-Backs can waive Russ Ortiz, swallowing nearly $22 million in the process, can/will the Cubs cut bait on:
* Rusch's contract (which probably has ~$5mm outstanding)?
* Neifi's contract (which probably has ~$4mm outstanding)?
* Wood's contract (which probably has ~$6mm outstanding this season) -- who may be done this season anyway, and whose option they surely won't exercise?
* Pierre's contract (which probably has ~$3mm outstanding) -- if they can't trade him?
I don't see them cutting bait on any of these guys, even if the money is much lower than the Ortiz obligation. Why? Two reasons: (1) this is the Cubs; and (2) the idiot who made these signings is still in the GMs role.
I think they can trade Rusch, believe it or not. He's left-handed. Eventually he'll put two consecutive quality starts together and someone will take him.
* Neifi's contract (which probably has ~$4mm outstanding)?
See your last comment. Is there any indication that Hendry doesn't think Neifi is doing a heckuva job?
* Wood's contract (which probably has ~$6mm outstanding this season) -- who may be done this season anyway, and whose option they surely won't exercise?
There's little use in waiving him.
* Pierre's contract (which probably has ~$3mm outstanding) -- if they can't trade him?
See your last comment again.
I don't see them cutting bait on any of these guys, even if the money is much lower than the Ortiz obligation. Why? Two reasons: (1) this is the Cubs; and (2) the idiot who made these signings is still in the GMs role.
The Cubs will break the bank to keep Zambrano through 2010 at least, if not during this season then in the off-season. I expect it to happen during this season.
-- MWE
--There's little use in waiving him.
I can think of at least two reasons, both admittedly minor and relatively insignificant: (1) to free up a roster spot; and (2) to make a dramatic break from the past and signal that the franchise is turning a new direction.
Still, my greater point on all these guys, as you recognize, is that even if the Cubs *could* move their contracts, they surely won't do so -- mainly because the guy who acquired these contracts still stands behind them.
Hendry's contract (which probably has ~$4mm oustanding)?
Wood hasn't been awful - just constantly hurt. Simply DFA'ing him in some sort of hissy fit, I think, serves no purpose other than making the team look petty (which might have ripple effects among players the Cubs want to resign and sign. So far as I know, Woody is pretty well liked in the clubhouse).
If the roster spot is that needed - and if Wood's correct that his season may be over - there's always the 60 day DL to free up the spot. The Cubs are stuck paying his salary anyway you slice it.
Sooo.... what does that cost? I think a deal through 2010 would cover Z's final 2 arb years + 2 more. Does 12 mil get it done? 15?
Ordinarily, I'd be nervous about an 50-60-70 mil contract for a pitcher, but I think Zambrano is one of the few pitchers --- maybe in all of baseball --- I feel comfortable doing it with.
Man, oh man is that guy a horse. I think he's truly a Randy Johnson or Livan Hernandez type freak of nature so far as workload and durability go.
He's got that thick torso and those big legs. To pick an ex-Cub who was pretty durable in his day, he's built a little like Rick Reuschel (but bigger).
I'd give 4/$50M for Zambrano right now, without thinking twice about it, to sign him through 2010. I'd throw in a 5th year as an option as well. Sometimes it's easy to forget that the guy just turned 25 this month - signing him for 5 years only takes us through his age 30 season.
If he stays healthy - and I guess this will be a good case for those who theorize that big workloads at a young age can wear a pitcher down - his age 26-30 seasons should be dynamite.
I think next year would be Zambrano's last arb year. Anyway, 12, ratcheting it up to 15? He's probably not worth it, but at least he's young and has shown a remarkable level of durability (in the sense that Dusty has put him through the shredder and he hasn't lost anything).
The downside to DFA'ing Wood is that really, I think it's a pretty classless move.
It would almost certainly be perceived that way.
I also agree that waiving/releasing him at this point would certainly be viewed as a classless, spiteful move and rightly so.
OTOH, the real test will be what happens in the offseason. Assuming the Cubs don't exercise the option, will they try to negotiate a smaller deal or will they simply cut bait and let him go?
If the Cubs don't bring him back next year, I frankly think that the vast majority of Cubs fans will consider it just as classless and offensive, regardless of the financial considerations.
he just looks like someone who so far gets totally psyched out pitching in the majors, put him in th pen and let him pitch in blowouts until he accepts that he really is an MLB pitcher
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