— Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
The Trade, the Future and the Two Leagues
There are plenty of reasons why savvy and frustrated Cub fans are not exactly doing cartwheels over the team’s latest acquisition, especially since it has resulted in the departure of our favorite future Hall of Fame pitcher for a second time in his career.
Just what the Cubs need: A middle infielder good with the glove who regards walks the way Superman takes to Kryptonite. Welcome Cesar Izturis, he of the under .300 lifetime OBP.
And yet, in the spirit of launching some healthy debate during the dog days of a baseball season where our regular topic at hand is a dog of a team, I say I don’t think this is a bad trade. Have at me. Given that Maddux would have left at the end of the year, and given that the talk here suggested a bag of balls or an unexceptional lower minor league prospect or two would be the Cubs’ best return on Mad Dog, this trade was better than I expected.
But even if Hendry exceeded some expectations in what came over for Maddux, I acknowledge that doesn’t automatically mean the trade makes sense for this team. I don’t mind though watching two months of Izturis at short and Cedeno at second to see what we have. It’s how the Cubs react to what we have that might be more of concern.
But first, the-glass-half-filled side:
This very well could be one of the better Cub defensive infields in many years. Izturis raises some questions on offense, yes. But if he stays healthy, his stellar defense is close to a certainty. And I like what that could mean for Cedeno. Moving Cedeno over to second has the potential to turn him into a remarkably good fielder without nearly as many of the errant throws we’ve seen from him at times at shortstop. Just as I think Derrek Lee had much to do with helping Aramis Ramirez defensively at third, I think Cedeno’s change to second could create a new-found consistency. And suddenly, we have a defensive infield that’s top notch, which will also have some nice ramifications for the pitching staff.
Izturis’ OBP has never exceeded .330. And after .330, his next best year was at .302, the only other year he had an OBP of over .300. I think it’s fair though to say that we don’t know all that we have with Izturis’ offense—not with the amount of injury time he’s logged in recent years. The Izturis-on-offense concerns for me are two-fold: A) The Cubs are not in the best position to absorb another acquisition who has little patience at the plate and who fails to get on base at a consistent clip. Had the Cubs a lineup peppered with patient hitters consistently drawing walks and reaching base, one might be able to make a better case that Izturis’ defense offsets the kind of offensive player he is. And B) This appears to be the Cubs’ second place hitter in the lineup for 2007, a familiar mistake in my mind.
What are we looking at for 2007? Here’s my guess:
1. Pierre (re-signed)
2. Izturis
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. New Left Fielder
6. Jones/Murton
7. Barrett
8. Cedeno
Given that lineup, I’d switch Barrett and Izturis in the order. But I digress: This is not exactly the way I’d like to see the Cubs turn their mess around, but I have to sound this reminder once again: The National League is really weak. I mean really, really weak. Stunning-Mediocrity-All-Around Weak. The acquisition of a good left fielder and a solid starting pitcher or two for 2007, and it’s quite possible for this team to contend for post-season play.
National Little League
For the same reason, I originally made the prediction—as wrong as can be—that the Cubs would stay in the race once Derrek Lee went down in late April. I continue to look at these National League teams and shake my head. It’s at the point now where I think the disparity between the two leagues is bad for baseball and worthy of concern.
The Brewers’ recent trade of Carlos Lee was a reasonable one for that franchise, I thought. Considering Lee was not part of the team’s future for 2007, our neighbors to the north did pretty well on their return. Following the trade, we heard Dusty Baker say he was happy Lee is now gone from the National League because the Cubs won’t have to face him anymore. He’s done pretty well against the North Siders—to say the least.
But I don’t agree with Baker. (What else is new?) I wish he had stayed in the National League. First, as a Cub fan, how much weaker do we have to wish the National League to become so our team can compete? What I wish for is that the Cubs get better—that they develop better and smarter pitchers to be able to handle a Carlos Lee more successfully...not that the slugger leave the vicinity so our team’s mediocrity won’t be as exposed.
Second, I don’t think it’s good for baseball right now to see high impact players leaving the National League and heading to the American League. Regardless of what one thought of the Lee and Bobby Abreu trades for the individual teams involved, they were not good news overall for baseball. Am I the only one worried about a competitive crisis between the two leagues right now?
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My take on the Izturis/Maddux deal is that it necessarily isn't a bad deal; if his glove is really all that, Izturis is probably a slight upgrade on Cedeno. (I know that he's also an expensive upgrade, but this is MLB where marginal wins don't matter.) And, I don't really have a problem with them carrying two good SSs on their roster. The problem is that they are planning on moving Cedeno to 2nd. This is a team that really, really needs to confront their problems on offense, and I see Izturis/Cedeno as being a big step backward from Cedeno/Walker.
I'd rather have the prospect. Sometimes you get really lucky (Liriano), sometimes it doesn't make a difference (too many to mention). If the Cubs didn't already have Neifi (remember, he's still going to be here next year) AND Cedeno; *BOTH* of whom appear to be pretty much the same exact player (actually, UZR might even say Izturis is the worst of the 3 defensively); and if Izturis didn't cost as much as Neifi AND Cedeno combined next season, then fine. Considering all those facts (plus the fact that we all KNOW he's the #2 hitter as long as Dusty's around), that makes this a bad trade.
(I know that he's also an expensive upgrade, but this is MLB where marginal wins don't matter.)
In an isolated instance, I'll buy that the slight overpayment doesn't matter. But this is the Cubs. Remember last offseason when they had $30mil to burn? What improvements did we get? Nothing. Now the Cubs have already spent half of the salary relief they would have gotten from Maddux's contract. Every little bit adds up, so each and every overpayment is less money to bid on an actual impact FA (which one still hasn't been signed under the McFail regime).
And, I don't really have a problem with them carrying two good SSs on their roster.
In theory, no. But ideally one is good with the stick and one with the leather. In the Cubs case, they have 3 of the same guys (good def SS) and they're now going to play 2 of them at 2nd.
But Hendry has shown a real reluctance in the past to make a big splash for free agents, and for offseason trades as well. He's already going to have his attention split this offseason with (probably) finding a new manager and coaching staff, as well as negotiating a contract extension for Zambrano. Maybe he'll realize after the 65-win debacle of this season that sweeping change is necessary - but even if he does, do the Cubs have the trading chits to pull it off? The shine is off a lot of these AAA guys who have been trumpeted as great prospects the last 3-5 years.
"I don't think of numbers the same way you guys (media) think of numbers," [Dusty] Baker said. "We're looking for [Izturis] to just get better.
"This guy is young. On-base percentage is very, very important, but we want him to play ball — to be a ballplayer. We want him to get on, score, steal, advance runners — do what ballplayers do."
Which of these phrases is not like the others?
In discussing Cedeno, Dusty observed:
"It will probably take two or three or four or five days — whatever it takes for him to feel comfortable before we put him out there," Baker said. "It's not so much ground balls; it's turning double plays. It's a different look. You have your back to the runner. You can get seriously hurt if you don't know what you're doing at second base more than any other base. He doesn't have the right glove right now or the right footwork."
To repeat my rants from yesterday's Game Chatter, not having the "right glove" is up there with not having a LH batting practice pitcher. Actually, it's worse -- even if the gloves are different (which I don't believe is true), is Dusty really saying that Cedeno couldn't have borrowed one from Neifi?
As for footwork, yes the pivot is different at second. OTOH, this was the guy who was supposed to have spent much of the winter preparing to play second with the understanding that the Cubs would sign Furcal.
Furthermore, even if one can learn and master the pivot in 2-5 days, when will Cedeno be able to do this, seeing that the Cubs don't take infield because they use Wrigley to host fantasy camps?
Also, why didn't we hear any of this from Hendry, who went out of his way on Monday to say: "You’ve got a Gold Glover at short, and Ronny was fully prepared to play a lot of second base. Oneri [Fleita] spent a lot of time in the winter getting Ronny to play second. There was a lot of effort behind the scenes when we were chasing other shortstops in the winter. He was well-prepared to play second. It will sort itself out."
Has Hendry EVER picked up a player with a career OBP over .330? Derek Lee, that's it. (OK, Todd Walker, but the Cubs always seemed like they'd rather not have him.)
1. Izturis is the same hacktastic, punchless hitter we are already getting from Neifi and, so far, from Cedeno. While he's only 26 and injured for a decent chunk of his career, he's already seen more than 2500 PAs in the majors. What we see is pretty close to what we're going to get.
2. Izturis is not the defensive wizard that the Cubs and the locals make him out to be. The Cubs brass are hyping him as the second coming of Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, Luis Aparicio, and Mark Belanger, all rolled into one. While I concede that he's good, he's arguably not much better than Neifi, at least according to available metrics such as BPro's Rate stat. Indeed, Range Factors would say that Neifi is substantially better.
IOW, I don't presume that "his stellar defense is close to a certainty" or that "[t]his very well could be one of the better Cub defensive infields in many years." Instead, we're getting yet another OBP sinkhole who, despite his reputation and hype, is no guarantee to improve the Cubs defense over where it is already.
3. This is a dangerous sign -- as entrenched as Neifi has been the last few seasons, it's quite possible that the Izturis hype will entrench him as a fixture (and anchor) in the Cubs lineup for years to come.
4. I appreciate that the Cubs were able to get something for Maddux. I also appreciate that the Cubs were not able to get a top prospect (and may have tried to get one). Still, one has to ask if the Cubs would have been better served by seeking a lower level prospect at a different position -- a midlevel corner OF prospect would be much more valuable to the Cubs at this point than another punchless, OBP-averse middle infielder.
I don't think Dusty meant "glove" as in the physical piece of equipment. I think he meant the fielding skills in general.
Which is just another excuse for Dusty to keep putting his best friend Neifi Perez in the lineup again. If Izturis and Cendeno start 30 games as the SS/2B combo the rest of the year I'll be shocked.
Putting aside Izturis's questionable defensive value, he is absolutlely redundant. Cloning Derrek Lee would help the Cubs. Cloning 26 year old Neifi Perez does not. Cedeno's youth makes him: a) the most valuable in trade and b) the least valuable to the short-term thinking Cubbies (there are jobs to be saved after all). I don't think Cedeno will be a Cub in 2007.
You know, like having three "l"s in absolutely
I was aiming for symbolism, I swear
Maybe, but if that's the case, it's even more stupid. Since when is second base a more demanding position than shortstop?
In any event, somehow Dusty didn't get the memos from Jim Hendry and Oneri Fleita.
As hard as it is to imagine, with as bad as the Cubs offense has been this year, I think there's a very real possibility that next year's offense won't be any better. Let's not kid ourselves - Michael Barrett isn't going to hit .330 next year and Derrek Lee probably isn't going to put up a .400/.600 next year.
Brenly and Kasper thought he did. Brenly went to some length to explain that a SS glove is a little deeper than that used at 2B and that Cedeno would need new equipment to enable him to transfer the ball to his throwing hand that bit quicker.
Incudentally, dJf - another Baker excuse. 48 hours before a starter is needed for tomorrow, Guzman is discounted because Iowa are in Las Vegas, which is 'too far away'.
Just to clarify what I mean here, I'm sure that the Cubs are assuming their offense will improve next year because Derrek Lee is going to be 100% healthy and reprise his 2005 season for them and I'm saying, I think we would be wise to expect Derrek Lee to reprise his 2004 season, which is fine for a first baseman, but isn't going to do more than offset the downgrade from Walker to Cedeno and likely regression from Michael Barrett.
Yeah, I remember that one time that Tom Goodwin got a hit.
What about the previous 636?
I can't seem to recall how 1999 turned out...
Was it that long ago that players would let their opponents use their gloves (by leaving them on the field between half-innings)?
I'm sorry, but the idea (if true) that Dusty was saying that Cedeno couldn't play 2B because he doesn't have the right mitt -- that's beyond "no LH batting practice pitcher" or "Las Vegas is too far" in the list of excuses. It takes the cake.
If Neifi isn't willing to let Cedeno use his mitt, you'd think that someone could make a trip to The Sports Authority -- it's just down Clark St., less than a mile from the park!
Well said, Moses. Couldn't agree with you more.
Just wanted to raise two points to the few of you who might think this trade is even approaching okay:
- Defense has not been a problem for the Cubs this year. Baseball prospectus ranks them fifth in all of baseball in team defensive efficiency.
- I'm sure I don't need to remind anyone on this message board of this, but just because I'm raging about this stupid trade and need to blow off some steam, the Cubs have the worst offense in all of baseball by a considerable margin. They have scored 446 runs, 31 fewer than the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who have the 29th ranked offense in baseball. The Cubs also rank 29th in OBP and 24th in Slugging. Is a full season of a healthy Derrek Lee going to help all of those numbers? Yes. But he can't do it alone, especially when Cesar Izturis will have effectively replaced Todd Walker in the lineup, something that will drag the Cubs back down in all of those categories.
If Izturis is emblematic of the direction Hendry is going to take with the team in 2007, we Cubs fans should be afraid. Very afraid.
Does anyone out there also think this deal was done because of Todd Walker's recent defensive gaffes?
Couldn't agree more. I posted the Brenly thing because I believe that Baker was making a very feeble excuse rather than talking about Cedeno's fielding.
Nomar
Burnitz
Hairston
Lawton
Gerut
Grieve
And that's just from last year's roster.
I don't - the Cubs already had Neifi and Cedeno. I think this was done because Cedeno is on the way out.
Hairston was like Walker, a guy Dusty never liked. That leaves Nomar, and it would be interesting to see where the Cubs would be now if he'd managed to stay healthy in 2004 and 2005.
To begin, I guess I had come around to believe (thanks in part to some here) that the Cubs were not going to land a prospect with any serious ceiling for Maddux. Given that, then the question isn't whether you'd prefer a decent prospect over Izturis for Maddux. it's whether you'd prefer Izturis over hanging on to Maddux for the rest of the year.
I like the idea of using two months to see him at short with Cedeno at 2nd. I still think this could develop into a very decent double play combination and more.
Then again, i was going to make comment on the same thing djf did. The Baker comments about Cedeno having to wait to play second are utterly nuts. I thought to myself yesterday that maybe I'll take a somewhat positive note on this trade for a change -- maybe I'll look on the bright side -- and then i hear Baker. He can always knock the optimism right out from under me.
The stats both defensively and offensively for Izturis right now are still in some question in my mind. Not in the mind of other posters, I guess. I still think his injuries as he reached his prime years makes some of what we have in Izturis a question mark -- even conceding to djf that he has more than a few at bats under his belt. But he also was hitting a bit better than in his earliest years when he became injured.
On defense, I think we all agree that Ramirez has improved significantly and that Lee is a tremendous 1Bman. Even if you don't take it as far as I do and agree that Izturis will be "stellar" in the field, can we all agree that he'll be pretty darn good? If that's the case, doesn't Cedeno becoming a consistent 2nd baseman -- if you buy that as a possibility-- make this a potentially pretty good defensive infield? I think it does.
I don't know if Izturis is over-hyped defensively or not, but I suspect no one will have problems with the leather he flashes on this team.
The offensive concerns are hard to refute. I raised many of them myself.
Too Much Coffee Man makes an excellent point: We lose Walker, whose asset as a hitter was even more valuable on the Cubs because he provided the team with what they so sorely lack: the ability to get on base. He's now been replaced with a lower OBP hitter likely to bat second most of next year.
And I can't argue that the trade raises a bit more concern because of Neifi being here next year. How many such guys do you need? It's not the way I would have proceeded with cleaning up this mess. I would have been in favor of trading away many more players and building around three or four on this team. Sacrificing next year to develop players and bring high ceiling prospects into the system would have been my approach.
But given that that was never going to happen, I don't think the Cubs are sooo far away from contending in this sorry league next year. Three solid free agents -- a left-fielder and a couple of pitchers -- and better durability, and it's a potentially .500ish team floating around all the other flawed .500ish teams in the National League.
I, too, have doubts whether Hendry will get the necessary free agents so I'm not in as much disagreement with Angel as it appears. He notes the questionable pitching staff for next year. Without adding to this starting staff with decent free agents, I'd agree that things will remain bleak.
OK...I've gone on long enough. To the original topic at hand: The next two months will show us a little bit more about whether we would have been better off keeping Maddux until the end of the year. I think there's potential with this double play combination, but it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong.
Sticking up for my Rays, I'll also observe that:
A. They've been hit with the injury bug just as much as the Cubs -- Julio Lugo, Jorge Cantu, and Aubrey Huff were each out about a month, Rocco Baldelli missed about two months, and Ty Wigginton quite possibly may miss the rest of the season.
B. With a current lineup of Crawford and Baldelli in the OF; Upton, Zobrist, Cantu, and Lee in the IF; Navarro at C; and Gomes at DH, they have a lot more upside than the Cubs (and that's not counting Delmon Young and others in the minors).
He didn't really say that, did he? This guy is really unbefuckinlievable. I said back in ST that he has become a parody of himself, when he made some comment about how ST AB's don't mean much after some young players had been hitting the crap out of the ball. If the Vegas and no glove comments are accurate...jeeze!
I know he's old school, but even in his minor league days there was such a thing as transcontinental jet transport. It's not like Guzman has to ride the Silver Streak or anything.
I do think at their level there are different gloves for short and second BUT the difference would be minimal to the point of using as an excuse is laughable.
I hate this trade, the only upside I can think of that this trade MIGHT bring is maybe, maybe, maybe this makes Neifi expendable. I will take a Izturis for Neifi trade. Not holding my breath but...
He did. He also discounted Williams because he's not pitching well (his last 3 starts have been his best since going down). OTOH, he did say he'd asked for Sean Gallaher but had been told that the kid wasn't ready for the majors yet. I draw a crunb of comfort from knowing that someone in the organisation is prepared to say 'no' to Dusty.
Hey, Mike, where were you from about 1950 to 1980, when the shoe was on the other foot? (OK, I can see that you went from -10 to 20, but the point remains.) Let the NL suffer for about 30 years and then start talking about it. In the meantime it can console itself by saying how pure its brand of baseball is.
But anyway, within a few years the pendulum will likely swing back, since it's not like it was when one league was integrated and the other basically wasn't. Just sell the money-saturated Cubs to someone who knows what he's doing and you might be amazed at the quick turnaround.
Particularly since there's a much greater difference between a second baseman's glove and a first baseman's mitt, which didn't prevent Todd Walker from becoming the primary first baseman for over a month.
The Cubs have ruled out recalling Angel Guzman or Jerome Williams, who are with Class AAA Iowa. ''Guzman is far away because they're playing in Las Vegas,'' Baker said of the Iowa Cubs. ''Jerome has been struggling.''
Team officials have ruled out recalling Class AA pitcher Sean Gallagher, who is 5-3 in nine starts.
''The people who have seen him decided he's not really ready,'' Baker said. ''We'd be rushing him too much. It's one day at a time on who's pitching. Everything's in limbo.''
I'm not sure we're on the same page, Mike. From what I understand, the Dodgers were rightfully not going to give a top prospect for Maddux, whether Hendry tried or not. I don't disagree with that.
The question is whether they could've gotten what I'll call a "mid-tier" prospect -- someone with either more risk, a lower ceiling, but not necessarily both. Joel Guzman may have been out of the question (although the Dodgers did give him up for a 2 month loaner of Julio Lugo), but could the Cubs have gotten, say, Sergio Pedroza -- who also went in the Lugo deal? What about Anthony Raglani? Cory Dunlap? Xavier Paul?
It's a fool's errand to guess about offers that weren't made, but it seems to me that the Cubs had choices beyond (a) keeping Maddux and (b) getting an MLB shortstop.
Even if you don't take it as far as I do and agree that Izturis will be "stellar" in the field, can we all agree that he'll be pretty darn good? If that's the case, doesn't Cedeno becoming a consistent 2nd baseman -- if you buy that as a possibility-- make this a potentially pretty good defensive infield? I think it does.
But if Izturis is no better with the glove than Neifi, than it's essentially a wash (and a redundancy). Also, as The First Pitch Express observes, it isn't as if the Cubs defense was hurting in the first place.
Three solid free agents -- a left-fielder and a couple of pitchers -- and better durability, and it's a potentially .500ish team floating around all the other flawed .500ish teams in the National League.
When's the last time the Cubs were able to draw three front-line free agents (i.e., not including bench guys or bullpen fodder)?
If Izturis can finish the season strong, he might be a somewhat valuable trading chit in the offseason. It's easy to imagine a scenario where a team gets shut out of the bidding on the prize FA SS and gives up a
prospectstarting pitcher for someone like Izturis who has a superficially good resume. To the extent that Izturis himself might be able to bring in something better than a live arm, I'mgladsure the Cubsmade thewill make a deal.Sorry, I just thought some editing would help.
LOL!!! Even the frickin' Yankees and Red Sox can't get 3 in one off-season.
For all that time Cedeno was playing 2B in the assumption that Furcal was going to be here, I guess he was leasing a second baseman's glove.
I had forgotten all about Nomar. That's a good list though. Kind of indicates the Cubs place value in having OBP on the bench and defense in the everyday lineup. Which, if you assume you have a healthy Zambrano, Prior, and Wood is kind of a waste seeing that their strikout rates are so high.
Of course, that team would most likely be the Cubs. :-)
2. Izturis
3. Lee
I'll give everyone a sneak preview of my 2007 projections:
Derrek Lee: 35 HR 57 RBI
One other thing I found noteworthy about this was that neither the media nor Dusty thought of Jae Kuk Ryu. It is true that Ryu has been fairly lackluster in Iowa and did pitch last night, but he's been better than Williams.
That would probably be the 1990-91 offseason; George Bell, Danny Jackson, and Dave Smith. THAT worked out well (well, it did lead indirectly to Sosa).
Those Cub teams of the early 90s are about what I'd expect out of the next couple of seasons here - around 75-80 wins per year, not as laughably bad as they've been this year, but not good.
LOL!!! Even the frickin' Yankees and Red Sox can't get 3 in one off-season.
The White Sox got their starting second baseman, catcher, right fielder, closer and fifth starter via free agency the offseason before last. It can be done.
From the Cubs' perspective, this is the real problem with the imbalance between the leagues, as alluded to in the introduction. As things stand, almost no NL team is far away from contending, which is a fatal temptation to mediocre teams that see themselves as one or two veterans away from a playoff spot. Several sub-.500 NL teams were among the buyers or potential buyers at the trade deadline; LA, which picked up Maddux and Lugo, currently projects to win 78 games.
I'm just sayin'.
I called you a troll because you:
mention one game as a reason this is working.
you say that we kept complaining about Cedeno, we haven’t. Concerned maybe. In fact when the trade happened you are the one that said Cedeno sucked and then told us to quite ######## about how bad Cedeno was.
One of the reasons you give for liking this trade is that Izturis offensive numbers are skewed because he is going from a pitchers park to the ultimate hitting park.
Now if you are saying that you are a huge Cubs fan and like Izturis you might just be new to this site and not aware of what we have been talking about for most of the past two years. I will cut you some slack if that is the case. It just appeared that you were mocking the Cubs fans on the site.
You may think I'm a troll - but you can eat my ass Biscuit_Pants.
Looks like I've got some company on Biscuit Pants's enemy list......
---
Who really believes this trade is going to mean less Neifi? If you think that, you're a fool.
Who thinks there's any way Neifi won't be on the Cubs next season? If you think that, you're a bigger fool. Hendry can't trade with himself.
Don't be so sure of that. Hendry has been ####ing himself for years.
I stand corrected.
But as a Sox fan, I'd consider that volume of signings (and subsequent production) a matter of extreme luck. Dye got better offers, Iguchi thought the offer was too low (then changed his mind). I suppose one could hope for the Cubs to have similar luck, but that's not exactly a plan. At least the Sox moves - changing their LF, RF, C, 2B - indicates the management knew they needed a serious overhaul. The endless Cubs plan - "we're just one or two pieces away" - indicates the management (and some of the fans) refuses to see some of the problems.
Are you kidding? THe cake left the building at the end of last season. These last few excuses may have consumed some hardened icing on the edge of the pan.
You read about the 2nd baseman's glove thing right?
Neifi career EQA: .219
Izturis career EQA: .226
If you want to bring up Izturis's age as a helpful factor then keep in mind that he hasn't posted an EQA over .222 since 2004.
IZZY IS NOT YOUR SAVIOR!!!!!!111111
LOL!!! Even the frickin' Yankees and Red Sox can't get 3 in one off-season.
The Cubs picked up three free agents last year, but I acknowledge they were not all what I would call solid.
But Eyre and Howry and Jones were all free agents that had some interest from other teams. In fact, wasn't Wade Miller also a FA pickup? The Cubs should have money to acquire real upgrades so I don't think that should be a LOL scenario. But with this team's history, I understand why it is.
To me, the real question is whether the Cubs will be willing to go after a top level free agent. And as many have mentioned here, how many times have we seen Hendry do that? A real point to be sure.
What I was trying to say was that it would not take unreasonable off-season work to make this team a contender in the National League next year. You land one very good free agent and a couple of decent ones and I don't think they're buried again as long as they stay healthy.
I hate being in the position to actually defend this team for I'm usually as scathing about them and the way the offense is assembled as all of you are. But it's not entirely fair in my eyes to cite the Cubs' offensive numbers over this year and make that a benchmark for how much they need to improve.
Lee is the big stick that was gone most of the year. That's a huge difference, of course. But it was more than just Lee that was missing this year. As much as I didn't like the Pierre trade, he was worthless for two months in a way that I did not expect. Ramirez is a better player with Lee in the lineup although I know he can be a cold starter. Pierre playing better at the start of the year and Ramirez not completely disappearing with a healthy Lee in the lineup means a better offense than what we saw this year.
With Walker gone, however, and Izturis as a replacement, I agree that the Cubs are in big need of a major upgrade in this lineup.
djf's point about a mid-level prospect for Maddux is well taken. As he says, it depends on the prospect, which is difficult to guess. If it was a prospect who had some chance at becoming an impact player down the road, I would have been in favor of that deal over the one made as well. If it was a marginal prospect, I would take my chances with Izturis.
And to respond to one more of djf's points: If Izturis turns out to be no better than Neifi with the bat, the deal will not help the Cubs. To summarize our positions the way I see it: You seem confident he won't develop into a better hitter than what we've seen and that his defense is good but over-rated. I think his defense is at least as good as Neifi's and could in the end be better. And I'm not yet convinced that we've seen all there is to see with his hitting. My mild support for this trade is based on the idea that A) It's worth the gamble to find out and B) I see no better option for the middle of the infield next year.
That leads to a final point: Given that the Cubs were not going to build with prospects and develop young players for 2007, it becomes a fair question to ask what Hendry's alternative should have been. Should they have kept Walker for another year? What strong OBP shortstops or 2nd basemen are available on the market next year? If I recall correctly, it was pretty slim pickings.
I certainly agree with some of the concerns raised here. But I don't think the trade was terrible given all factors. It was a gamble where not a lot was given up -- as painful as that is to say about Maddux. Izturis may be another Neifi in the end, but if he is, I just didn't see a big difference maker out there for the taking. To me, the big question now is whether Hendry provides this lineup with more punch and a different kind of hitter at another position or two.
Holy ####, I'd completely forgotten about him. Haven't seen anything about him in months.
If Izturis turns out to be no better than Neifi with the bat, the deal will not help the Cubs. To summarize our positions the way I see it: You seem confident he won't develop into a better hitter than what we've seen and that his defense is good but over-rated. I think his defense is at least as good as Neifi's and could in the end be better. And I'm not yet convinced that we've seen all there is to see with his hitting. My mild support for this trade is based on the idea that A) It's worth the gamble to find out and B) I see no better option for the middle of the infield next year.
Sub Cedeno in for Izturis in that paragraph and absolutely nothing changes except for the $4mil Izturis is getting paid.
That leads to a final point: Given that the Cubs were not going to build with prospects and develop young players for 2007, it becomes a fair question to ask what Hendry's alternative should have been. Should they have kept Walker for another year? What strong OBP shortstops or 2nd basemen are available on the market next year? If I recall correctly, it was pretty slim pickings.
Sure, keeping Walker for another year would have been great. It's been pretty obvious since this past offseason that they didn't value Walker enough. But there's quite a few mid-tier 2b FAs out there now (someone listed them in one of the original trade threads, but it included guys like Loretta, Grudz, etc).
Basically, I see no reason why they should have given up on Cedeno at SS unless they were replacing him with something unquestionably better (i.e. Tejada).
Quite frankly, I see Izturis as having negative value to the Cubs. Would he get 1yr/$4MM on the open market if he were a FA this offseason? Whatever your answer to that, keep in mind that the Cubs need him LESS than other teams (he's totally redundant) and receive the added bonus of screwing with one of their prospects to do it. Remember how well a certain young Met infielder did when he was tugged between SS and 2B? Then you can factor in whatever you believe the opportunity cost of passing on an unknown prospect is.
Maybe the Cubs did this with the full intention of burying Cedeno and no longer care about his development. The now very distinct possibility of an Izturis/Neifi middle infield should give you some concern. This would leave LF as the one spot in the lineup where improvement may take place.*
*Yes, I know Pierre's contract is up but this FA class doesn't allow for improvement in CF unless he re-signs and has a better 2007 than his 2006.
Frankly, I don't see a whole lot of reason to be optimistic with the offense going forward. Keep in mind that Chicago has the worst offense in baseball by 31 runs at about the 2/3 mark. If this trend continues (and remember they've swapped out Walker's bat for Izturis's) they're looking at being the worst offense in baseball by close to 50 runs.
And to think that performance wasn't enough to win Kenny Williams "Executive of year" from the Sporting News or Baseball America.
Nevertheless, that's a good one to add to the excuse bank. "Had wrong kind of glove"....*files away*
</Dusty>
My whole point though is that this was a good trade. I love Maddux, but his value from this point forward in the season was purely sentimental. It's time to move on - I don't think the Cubs can count on Maddux, Prior, or Wood for the future.
Why does everybody keep saying that?!
Oh, and don't you hate pants!
I'm not, ahem, a fan of the Cubs, but I would have to agree with this (or maybe not being a fan makes me more likely to). Right now the NL wild card leader is what, 4 games over .500? I'm sure that fluctuates a lot from year to year, but it's not like the Cubs have the Yankees and Red Sox staninding in the way of of their postseason in the NL Central.
Even neglecting the level of competition, the Cubs starting pitching could be formidible next year. There's a reasonable chance that Zambrano and Prior could form a Schilling/Johnson tandem. You may feel that's not likely, but not many teams have even the possibility of a top 2 like that. The bullpen seems passable. The lineup might be weak, but I imagine the Cubs will sign Carlos Lee (he wants to go there). If they retain Ramirez the middle of the order is very solid. Izturis is in his prime, it's possible he could have a middling OBP next year. Less talented teams than that have gotten to the post-season.
Anyway, if the Cubs go big and sign Lee, keep Ramirez, and bring in a big-time starter (Zito or Matsuzaka) I think they'd be a pretty imposing team next year. Even without the starter, they should have a shot at the post-season.
Of course with him pitching tonight I am fully expecting to eat my words.
Will they?
With the addition of Izturis, they've got >$7 million devoted to middle infielders, both corner infielders are making >$10 million next year, they've got, what, $15 million invested in the bullpen ($5 million each for Eyre, Howry, Dempster? plus $3 m for Rusch). Plus, they probably have to pay Pierre $8 million next year just to start at the status quo (I assume you're not counting him and Aramis in the 3 free agents they need to sign). And Big Z's probably due to hit the $10 million per year level next year or very soon therafter.
How much money does that really leave them to invest in corner outfielders and starting pitchers? And let's not forget that Esteban Loaiza got a 3 yr/$21 million deal last offeason. If it costs $7 - $8 million per year for average starting pitching (and that's probably being generous to Mr. Loaiza), do two league-average starters for $15 million really go far toward making this team a contender?
Izturis at $1 million a year with Neifi being DFA'd at the same time would have been a perfectly fine trade for Greg Maddux. Spending >$7 million for 3 slap-hitting middle infielders hurts this team's chances to become a real player in the free agent / trade market this offseason.
Don't want to go through the whole thing, but FAs this year are Maddux ($9mil), Pierre($5.75), Wood($11mil-$3mil buyout), Nevin ($375K), Blanco ($1.5mil), Mabry ($1.075), Miller ($1mil). That's a total of $26.7mil coming off the books. Combined, Ramirez ($.5mil), Dempster ($1mil), Jones ($1mil), Barrett ($1mil), Izturis ($4.15mil), Howry ($1.5mil), Rusch ($.5mil), and Eyre ($.8mil) eat up $10.5mil in raises. Then you have to add in raises for Zambrano (probably about $4mil) and Prior (let's say $1mil), and the team has about $11.2mil left for upgrades to match this year's budget. I'm not sure how much the budget will go up, but let's be conservative and say $5mil.
So, that gives Hendry $16.2mil to find a LF, CF, and at least 1 SP. I'm not very optimistic.
The walks scare the hell out of me. It's not just an elevated walk rate. 40 BB in 53.1 IP is simply not conducive to any kind of success at the big league level (and it's getting worse - he's at 29 walks in 25.1 IP since July 1), Last year in the minors he averaged about 4.5 BB/9, and he was at about 3.9 BB/9 before his callup this year.
Until I see him get it down under 4 BB/9 consistently, I wouldn't pencil him in for next year. Even with a good hit rate this year, he's still putting up a 1.55 WHIP. I think he's lucky his ERA is as low as it is.
Does Vegas still have an airport? 'Cause I could swear I remember going to work in Chicago less than a day after leaving Vegas a couple years back.
Harvey Wallbangers has seen more games than the rest of the site combined. He has seen 70 years worth of baseball and seems to remember every game with clarity.
Don’t be a dick while attacking someone unless you can do it with the elegance of a lawyer.
Don’t call anyone Nellie!
Most people on this site would rather have 2 prospects in the minors than a major league average person in the field.
Being a “fanboy” doesn’t work unless you are a Mets fan.
Barry Bonds – Pick a side!
John Brittain is funny.
Most if not all feel “Clutch” is a word you can only use while making fun of the mass media’s use of it.
Cubs specific ones:
No one likes Dusty, very few people like Hendry.
Many of the Cubs fans on the site picked an American league team to root for after the team tanked the 2003 season. (Example DJF is now a Tampa fan)
Most of the other stuff can be found in the WIKI.
Add other unwritten rules if I forgot any.
I hope the Cubs aren't planning on the present team being contenders after one or two minor tweaks, but I suspect that's exactly what will happen.
That's a close summary, but let me add one more thing: At this point, you, me, BTF, the Chicago media, and nearly all of Cubs Nation realizes Neifi's shortcomings and that he's not the answer of any question worth asking.
I fear that the same is true of Izturis, but because he's 26, he'll slip under the radar. With the exception of Bruce Miles, the media is already buying into the hype. (Check Mike Downey's article for instance.) More importantly, the Cubs are buying the hype too. If we all fear that Neifi has a stranglehold on a roster spot through 2007, I fear that Izturis will hold one well beyond that.
Given that the Cubs were not going to build with prospects and develop young players for 2007, it becomes a fair question to ask what Hendry's alternative should have been. Should they have kept Walker for another year?
Why not? Yes, I'm serious. Walker is no long-term solution, but if we're only looking for someone to man the position until they can call up Eric Patterson or find a legit 2B, why not?
Instead, they've got three versions of basically the same guy -- Neifi Perez young, prime, and post-prime -- and all look like they'll be with the team through at least 2007, with Eric Patterson still developing in AA. Pass.
This is going to sound wild, but who says Soriano can't play CF?
For the record - I don't like Dusty, Hendry, or corporate ownership. My AL team is anyone but the Yankees. Carlos Zambrano is and has always been my favorite </strike>
cubplayer.Don't sweat it, brownieelf. We may be a bunch of abrasive pessimists, but that's only because we've all been quite jaded over the years (the last 3 years in particular). The regulars here are all quite passionate Cubs fans, just like you, and we were in much better moods in 2003.
There is a pretty fair amount of groupthink here, in case you haven't picked up on it yet. You mentioned Jones earlier. I don't believe any of us dislikes him personally -- I, for one, know that he's giving a good effort for the most part. We just *really* thought it was a wrong decision to sign him, much less for 3 years and without the RH half of a platoon.
It's the same type of that Hendry has made a habit of over the past few years, and although we sometimes take our frustrations out on Jones, I think I can speak for most of us when I say that our real beef is with Dusty, Hendry, and MacPhail.
Anyway, welcome. Don't be too offended at the occasional jab and feel free to take a swipe at us or, better yet, challenge our thinking. The more voices we hear, the more we learn.
I'm assuming most teams that are interested in him intend to put him at 2B.
Here's the useful free agents I see (I may be wrong on the eligibility): Lee, Soriano, Durham, Javy Lopez, Belliard, Radke, Zito, Hunter, Stewart, Mussina, Guardado, Dellucci, Catalanotto, Glavine, Mulder, Schmidt. I don't see the Cubs signing 3 out of that group. One probably, two possibly, three no way.
It will probably be Guardado.
I'm assuming just the opposite -- that Soriano has already proven himself unworthy of handling the position and that his future is in the OF. Washington didn't pick him up on a lark; they viewed him as an OF from the get-go, and I believe that most/all other clubs see him that way as well.
Oh, and I don't see Durham, Lopez, Belliard, Radke, or Stewart being all that useful to the Cubs, and while Schmidt is useful, he won't be useful at the price he'll be seeking.
That's kind of an odd statement to make, when you consider that the Cardinals weren't even in the top third in the NL in payroll at the beginning of the year (according to Cot's Baseball Contracts):
Mets - $101 million
Dodgers - $98 million
Cubs - $94 million
Astros - $92 million
Giants - $90 million
Braves - $90 million
Cardinals - $88 million
At any rate, I think the Cubs will have more of a shot at competing in the Central than you may think, if for no other reason than the division may actually be weaker next year. The Brewers will probably be better and the Reds could make a push, but the Cardinals and Astros are poised to take a big hit in free agency, and the Pirates still seem to be headed nowhere. The Cubs bring back an MVP candidate in Lee, a Cy Young candidate in Zambrano, and a strong bullpen (compared to the rest of the division). The younger guys (Marshall, Hill, and maybe even Marmol) have shown the potential to approach league average production next year, which may help give them the flexibility to forego a starter in free agency next year (there's not a lot out there in terms of starters anyway).
They don't have to make a big splash in free agency to make improvements but, if they were to go after a big fish, they could pursue Torii Hunter to handle center field. In the bargain bin, they could target Luis Castillo to work opposite Izturis, provide some OBP to the top of the order, and let Cedeno provide some depth off of the bench. Frank Catalanotto and/or Jose Cruz Jr. could be picked up to be inexpensive platoon partners for either Murton or Jones, respectively. I realize that this is a "dream GM" scenario that's pure speculation, but it doesn't appear to be too unrealistic (even for Hendry, who would have to be drooling over somebody like Hunter in the first place).
They may not be a "pretty" contending team, but I'd still wager that they'd be in the thick of it come August of next year, which is certainly better than the current situation.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present our General Manager, Jim Hendry:
* The 3 or 4 days are long days/nights because of the trading deadline. It actually started a couple of weeks ago.
* Regarding the complaint that the Cubs don't care as long as they draw fans: I respect the fans and applaud them for their loyalty. They deserve a better product and to win. I'm totally committed to making it better in the next year. I greatly appreciate the fans coming out and supporting the team and don't pay attention to those complaints.
It couldn't be farther from the truth with me or those above me. When we were in the race and had to add Nomar's salary or Ramirez's, we did.
"I refuse to have any excuses, whether it's day games, whether it's payroll, whether it's injuries, I refuse to put up with any excuses on why we haven't been successful."
"There's always things that go wrong when you're not successful. There's no use making excuses about it. In the end of the day, it's professional sports. We play 162 games. At the end of the day, the record's gonna be what it's gonna be.
Obviously, ours is not appropriate, it's not something to hang your hat on. It just has to be fixed. I choose not to look backwards, now, I choose to look forwards, and I feel that -- like we did the other day.
I love Greg Maddux, and as fine a human being and as fine a player as I've ever been around -- Izzituris [sic] will be the first move that will help us get better for next year."
* Regarding Izturis and Cedeno and who bats No. 2: Let's give Izturis the chance to play for a while. He's 26 and when he went down to TJ surgery, he was hitting .340 and Jim Tracy thought he was going to blossom. And to be honest, he's the best defender in the league. He won the Gold Glove and every manager will tell you -- you heard Tommy LaSorda say it -- if he can't hit in the 2 hole, that's ok too.
And we'd all be remiss to think that Ronny Cedeno at his age doesn't have a chance to be a lot better offensive player. I mean, we're gonna get caught up in 4-5 months of statistics. In the history of the game, a lot of people hit .250 their first year and by their third year they're hitting .300.
They're great young players defensively. Hopefully, they'll get better offensively.
"I know one thing: I like going into the next year having the best player in the world defensively at first base and one of the best players in the world defensively at shortstop. I like having that."
* In response to Murphy thinking Dusty has been great over the last few weeks because he's argued with umps, yanked Dempster, etc. -- so your evaluation was a coincidence?
"The 'evaluation' thing was a line that I ha