At least he’s solid defensively. And he doesn’t appear to be letting the huge workload negatively impact his hitting.

Well played, sir.

The bullpen blowing up in three straight games was pretty disturbing. On the one hand, the bullpen has actually been pretty good when it comes to preventing runs from scoring. On the other, they give out walks like card slappers on the Vegas strip.

I'm probably a fool for it, but I'm looking forward to the Gorzelanny trial run.

All indications are that Gorzelanny is a real meathead, but sometimes for a meathead to click, it's just a matter of putting said meathead in the right situation.

I'm not sure what to make of the bullpen. There's talent there, but we're now 2/3 of the way through the season. I'm not sure how it compares to other teams, say the Cards, and how those fans feel about their pens.

---

I meant to mention that the Cubs are all the way up to 9th in Runs in the NL, after hovering around 15th for a good portion of the season.

Agreed, zonk. I'm cautiously optimistic. He's had success before, and his numbers look really encouraging in AAA (87IP, 73H, 3HR, 85/30 K/BB, 2.48ERA). I think he was a very good gamble for the Cubs to take.

hell maybe gorz will work out. after all would you listen to the pirates coaches after what they have done the last few years? i wouldnt

after all would you listen to the pirates coaches after what they have done the last few years? i wouldnt

Fair point.

This really can't continue if the Cubs are going to be contenders:

Pitcher- IP- Non-Intentional BB- N-I BB/9 IP

Kevin Gregg - 49.2 21 3.8
Sean Marshall - 22.0 12 4.9
Carlos Marmol - 51.0 48 8.5
Aaron Heilman - 50.1 30 5.4
Angel Guzman - 45.2 15 3.0

Total - 217.2 126 5.2

By comparison:

St. Louis- IP- Non-Intentional BB- N-I BB/9 IP

Ryan Franklin - 40.2 8 1.8
Kyle McClellan - 45.0 25 5.0
Jason Motte - 39.1 17 3.9
Trever Miller - 27.1 9 3.0
Dennis Reyes - 24.0 11 4.1

Total - 176.1 70 3.6

Houston- IP- Non-Intentional BB- N-I BB/9 IP

Jose Valverde - 30.0 12 3.6
Chris Sampson - 50.2 16 2.8
Latroy Hawkins - 42.2 12 2.5
Alberto Arias - 38.2 17 4.0
Jeff Fulchino - 50.1 13 2.3

Total - 213.1 70 2.9

Milwaukee- IP- Non-Intentional BB- N-I BB/9 IP

Trevor Hoffman - 31.0 10 2.9
Todd Coffey - 55.1 14 2.3
Carlos Villaneuva - 43.2 16 3.3
Seth McClung - 51.2 32 5.6
Mark DeFelice - 40.2 10 2.2
Total - 223.1 82 3.3


No wonder Lou's going insane.

[EDIT]- I didn't know you couldn't make nicely-spaced tables on here. Grrr.

I'm not sure more Fox time will be a good thing. The numbers are great of course but unless he's the new Vlad, they're not sustainable. The low walk rate doesn't bode too well and so far he's K'd at a lower rate than he did in the minors. With more exposure, I suspect the pitchers will just find his weaknesses sooner. Plus there's no place to play him ... and clearly if Lou would ever have been willing to play Fox at C, he'd never have sent Hill on the Bataan death march.

On the pen and the walks -- I'm starting to wonder if this is actual "strategy" on the Cubs part, not "letting big bats beat you" or some such. I know, it looks like it drives Lou crazy, but they keep doing it. And we go out and get Grabow whose only discernible skill is the ability to pitch around big hitters.

There's no way the Cubs will go down to a 6-man pen and it's not a good idea. It's hard to imagine Marmol, Gregg, Heilman improving with more use. And the Cubs have plenty of expendable parts on offense.

Here's an unexpected bit of trivia -- the NL team with the fewest relief IP? The Cards. Doesn't exactly fit LaRussa's rep.

I'm not sure more Fox time will be a good thing. The numbers are great of course but unless he's the new Vlad, they're not sustainable. The low walk rate doesn't bode too well and so far he's K'd at a lower rate than he did in the minors. With more exposure, I suspect the pitchers will just find his weaknesses sooner. Plus there's no place to play him ... and clearly if Lou would ever have been willing to play Fox at C, he'd never have sent Hill on the Bataan death march.

I disagree. Guess it depends on how much you believe or don't believe in hot streaks. Fox can be getting ABs at 5 different positions and as the top PH off the bench, but only has 31PAs in his last 17 games. Sure, the walk rate isn't great right now, but he's making a lot of contact and when he makes contact the ball is hit hard and usually far. There's nothing about his approach that I've seen that would worry me, IOW, bringing up Vlad (or even Soriano) is misleading because his approach is nothing like theirs. He's still seeing strikes and I'm not seeing him reaching out of the zone that often. And I said the same thing about Fox when the Cubs were taking forever to put him at 3rd and he's handled himself just fine. He's looked passable (poor choice of wording, but the point stands) the few innings he's had to catch, enough so that I'd like to see one start.

There's no way the Cubs will go down to a 6-man pen and it's not a good idea. It's hard to imagine Marmol, Gregg, Heilman improving with more use. And the Cubs have plenty of expendable parts on offense.

The Cubs aren't using everyone they have done there, and haven't all season (whether it was Patton or any of the other guys riding the Iowa express). It'd be one thing if Lou was using everyone, but he's not. And honestly, Blanco's PT is becoming so infrequent that I'm starting to wonder why he's still around.

Today's trib on my Gregg:

MIAMI -- Manager Lou Piniella insisted after Sunday's loss he's not contemplating a change in the closer's role.

"Why should I?" he said.

Kevin Gregg suffered his second blown save in less than 24 hours on Sunday, after recording 10 straight saves. While Gregg has been reliable in save situations the last two months, he has a relatively high earned-run average of 4.17 and has served up 10 home runs, the most by any NL reliever.

"Unfortunately, it's part of the game," Gregg said. "You're going to mess up every now and then, but I think I had [10] straight prior to this. So two on the wrong side and now let's get back on the right side."

Piniella's only other viable option as closer would be Carlos Marmol, who has had his own problems trying to throw strikes. Angel Guzman has been the Cubs' most consistent reliever but has no experience as a closer.

And as Walks posted in today's chatter, BJ Ryan is topping out at 88, so he's not likely to be called up anytime soon.

I distinctly remember the evening I heard the Kevin Gregg signing. I was playing poker at the Horseshoe Casino in Hammond and had two TV's within my point-of-view. One was showing the Jets/Patriots football game (it was pretty awesome: Farve and Cassell combined to throw for about 800 yards and 7 TD's) and the other was playing Bulls/Rockets on Comcast Sports Net. And as I was watching the Bulls game between dealer changes, Gail Fischer or some such broke in with one of those "Sports Nite Updates"...and the news filled the screen. "Chicago Cubs sign Kevin Gregg".

After a few moments of staring at the screen in shock and dismay, I dropped my head into my hands and said "no, no, NO!"

The guy next to me asked, "what's wrong?"

"We just replaced Kerry Wood with KEVIN F. GREGG?!?!"


How bad is Kevin Gregg?

One of Len and Bob's pet sayings about closers are, "don't walk guys, don't give up homers". Those seem to be the two key things to stay away from when it comes to closers. So, I decided to take a look at the NL closers to see where they would rank on this scale. The formula I used is: BB + (HR*4)/IP

It's pseudo-scientific at best; how much worse is a HR than a walk, anyway? Depends how big the lead is and the baserunner situation. 1 run? Devastating. 3 runs, bases empty? Still bad, but maybe not as bad as a walk. 3 run lead with 2 guys on? About a gazillion times worse than a walk. I decided to go with the obvious "times 4", but if you guys have a better idea, I can rerun the numbers.

So, here are the results:

Trevor Hoffman - MIL- 0.322 (ZERO HR in 31.0 IP!!!)
Chad Qualls - ARZ- 0.394
Ryan Franklin - STL- 0.398 (Ugh.)
Heath Bell - S.D- 0.451
Rafael Soriano - ATL- 0.490
Jonathan Broxton - L.A- 0.508
Brian Wilson - S.F- 0.531
Francisco Cordero - CIN- 0.618
Huston Street - COL- 0.665 (Would be higher with less-strict HR penalties.)
Matt Lindstrom - FLA- 0.800
Francisco Rodriguez - N.Y- 0.875 (Man, he walks a lot of guys)
Mike MacDougal - WAS- 1.037 (Only 24.1 IP- give him time and he'll rocket down this list)
Jose Valverde - HOU- 1.067 (I don't believe it. How does ANYONE hit him?)
Kevin Gregg - CHI- 1.240
Matt Capps - PIT- 1.247
Brad Lidge - PHI- 1.368 (Good thing flags fly forever.)


Answer: ...bad.

Now, our man Kevin has allowed 10 HR, the most of anyone on the list, so he'd probably move up a couple of spots with less-draconian HR penalties. But still, we seem to have the third-worst closer in the NL at the moment.

P.S.: The N.L West has a LOT of good closers: 4 of the top 7 spots on the list, and Huston Street just behind at 9. Impressive. Meanwhile, the East is the "Land of 9th-inning Nightmares", with #'s 10, 11, 12, and 16 on the list. Ick.

For the record, Kerry Wood's number this season is 1.270, and he only costs twice as much as Gregg...

Mike MacDougal - WAS- 1.037 (Only 24.1 IP- give him time and he'll rocket down this list)

Not necessarily, he's not very good but is having a decent run his first time through the NL.

EDIT (heh, I realize I probably misread this *and* am giving him too much credit)

I like that list if only because it supports my contention that Matt Capps is the LUCKIEST SOB around. Boy does that guy stink.

And I haven't seen a Mark DeRosa update lately. I take it the thrill is gone? Ha, ha.....

For the record, Kerry Wood's number this season is 1.270, and he only costs twice as much as Gregg...

Kerry Wood, 2007 - 0.539 (DISCLAIMER: Small Sample Size!!!)
Kevin Gregg, 2007 - 0.810

Kerry Wood, 2008 - 0.454
Kevin Gregg, 2008 - 0.718

I don't think my fears were completely unfounded.

Not necessarily, he's not very good but is having a decent run his first time through the NL.

Since July 1: 10.2 IP, 10 BB, 2 HR- 1.698

I feel comfortable saying that, given enough save situations (iffy with the Nats), he'll be bottom 3 by the end of the season. (I don't think he'll catch Lidge.)

[EDIT]- fair enough. I don't think the sheer level of Mike MacDougal's incompetence is a very important argument anyway. ;-)

Mark DeRosa w/Cardinals-

79 PA, .208/.266/.514 102 OPS+

Let's not discuss Julio Lugo or Matt Holliday.

And I haven't seen a Mark DeRosa update lately. I take it the thrill is gone? Ha, ha.....

Yeah, I copped to being wrong on that one a while ago. That horse is beyond decomposed at this point.

I don't think my fears were completely unfounded.

Oh, agree completely. It just seems that of all the mistakes Hendry made this past offseason, he was at least right on that one (assuming of course the only two options were Wood and Gregg, which they weren't). BTW, what happened to Jose Ceda? I can't seem to find his minor league numbers anywhere, did he get hurt and I miss it/forget?

Playing around with my little pet pseudo-stat:

Dennis Eckersley, 1990- 0.164 in 73.1 IP

Joe Borowski, 2007- 0.813 in 65.2 IP- not nearly as bad as I would have thought- 77H but only 9 HR.

Brad Lidge, 2008- 0.622 in 69.1 IP- kinda "meh" for a perfect season.

Bobby Thigpen, 1990- 0.589 in 88.2 IP- 57 saves, walked lots of guys.

Francisco Rodriguez, 2008- 0.734 in 68.1 IP- 62 saves, this may be proving itself a junk stat. More samples needed. :-)

Some (in)famous seasons in Cub closer history:

1988- Goose Gossage- 43.2 IP- 0.619
His problem, like '07 JoeBo, was all of the non-HR hits.

1989- Mitch Williams- 81.2 IP- 0.936
36 saves, 1.506 WHIP- perhaps the luckiest season in closer history. My 12-year-old self thought he was a god.

1991- Dave Smith- 33.0 IP- 1.303
0-6 with a 6.00 ERA. This season doesn't get enough credit when we discuss flammable Cub closers.

1997- Mel Rojas- 59.0 IP- 1.254
Want to get angry?
1996 w/MON- 81.0 IP- 0.593
1995 w/MON- 67.2 IP- 0.551

1998- Rod Beck- 80.1 IP- 0.799
Very Howry-ish: only 20 BB.

2002- Antonio Alfonseca- 74.1 IP- 0.756
That can't be right.

April/May: 0.909- OK, that makes more sense.

2003- Joe Borowski- 68.1 IP- 0.573
164 ERA+, 1.054 WHIP. Wow, he was REALLY GOOD that year, and I still have no idea how.

2004- Latroy Hawkins

This is a special case. Pre-June 4, he was JoeBo's setup man. Post-June 4, he was the closer. Let's see if the stats bear out our anectodal memories.

April 5- June 4: 30.2 IP- 0.588 2 HR
June 4- Oct. 3: 52.1 IP- 0.768 8 HR

Yup. Still not as bad as we remember, but the times he did blow it really, REALLY hurt.

2005- Ryan Dempster: 58.1 IP- 0.532
He sucked as a starter that year, but was MONEY as a closer.
2006- 75 IP- 0.747
2007- 66.2IP- 0.937- these years...not so much.

Sorry for the hijack, but I'm having fun. :-) Last one, I promise:

Some fun(?) seasons- non-closer division:

1989- Les Lancaster- 72.2 IP- 0.317.
He still threw that damn 2-0 pitch right down the middle to Robby F. Thompson.

2005- Cliff Politte- 67.1 IP- 0.730
Not as "magical" as I would have thought.

2005- Neal Cotts- 60.1 IP- 0.547
OK, there it is. ;-)

2008- Bob Howry- 70.2 IP- 0.921
Good thing he didn't walk anybody.

Finally, The Curious Case of Professor Farnsworth:

2001- 82 IP- 0.744 WHIP: 1.146, ERA+ 151
2002- 46.2 IP- 1.288 WHIP: 1.650, ERA+ 55
2003- 76.1 IP- 0.788 WHIP: 1.166, ERA+ 131
2004- 66.2 IP- 1.096 WHIP: 1.500, ERA+ 93
2005- 70 IP- 0.671 WHIP: 1.014, ERA+ 195

Any stat that hates Kyle Farnsworth more than other established stats must be useful...right?

Dusty blew Harang?

It probably distracted Harang on that pitch.

I love Dusty as an opposing manager. He has no clue on how to manage a pitching staff.

Just because it's cool:

Maddux 2004: .233

(at their peaks, he kicks Pedro's butt on this stat)

On Fox ... it's not like I object to him starting 2-3 times a week. And I wouldn't have minded if Lou had made him the starting C while Soto's been out (but, like I said, clearly that was never going to happen). But there's no way he should start over Lee, Ramirez, Bradley or Soriano unless you are convinced Soriano is done (which I'll agree is a real possibility). He should start at least once a week to give ARam a day off and probably once a week against LHP to give Bradley a rest. I'm just saying he's had his 120 PA run as Pujols-lite (their on-contact numbers are very close), we shouldn't count on that continuing.

What I want is for him to get sufficient playing time this year that we can decide if he should be a starter next year ... then figure out who we can move to make that happen. Lee's probably the only viable option.

As to the comparison players ... over the long-term, you can't not walk and not K in MLB without swinging at stuff outside the zone. Pitchers are only starting to get to know him and just haven't found what he can't handle yet. Now his minor-league walk and K numbers suggest he has OK plate discipline, I'm not suggesting he'll be Soriano or Francoeur much less Wily Mo. I'm just saying the BA will come down as the Ks go up, the current level of ISO is not sustainable, hopefully the walks will pick up to compensate for some of that. He can certainly be an average or above-average hitter for a corner though likely one whose defense ain't gonna help you anywhere. ZiPS RoS puts him at 252/298/460 (fangraphs)* which seems overly pessimistic even to me but call it 280/330/500 and you've got Soriano. Good player to have around, he just doesn't play (or Lou will never let him play) any of the positions the Cubs need right now.

Now, if he could magically morph into a 2B ...

* I'm not sure if ZiPS RoS incorporates his incredible AAA numbers this year in that projection or not.

Greg Maddux...OMG

1992- 0.366
1993- 0.404
1994- 0.233
1995- 0.262
1996- 0.294
1997- 0.241

CAREER- 0.481

I'm afraid to look at poor Ted Lilly. Jason Marquis 2006 would also be...fun.

[EDIT] I had to. Jason Marquis 2006 = 1.107. We INTENTIONALLY signed that!

On Fox ... it's not like I object to him starting 2-3 times a week. And I wouldn't have minded if Lou had made him the starting C while Soto's been out (but, like I said, clearly that was never going to happen). But there's no way he should start over Lee, Ramirez, Bradley or Soriano unless you are convinced Soriano is done (which I'll agree is a real possibility). He should start at least once a week to give ARam a day off and probably once a week against LHP to give Bradley a rest. I'm just saying he's had his 120 PA run as Pujols-lite (their on-contact numbers are very close), we shouldn't count on that continuing.

Yeah, but he could become the SUPEREST of super-subs. I think giving Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Soriano, and Bradley one day off a week each would be a FABULOUS idea down the stretch run and heading into the p...pl...thing I can't say.

Yeah, but he could become the SUPEREST of super-subs. I think giving Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Soriano, and Bradley one day off a week each would be a FABULOUS idea down the stretch run and heading into the p...pl...thing I can't say.

This is exactly what I'm advocating. Maybe Lee and Soriano don't need a day off every week, but every other week would be a good idea. That plus one weekly start for Ramirez and Bradley (or shift Bradley to CF against a tough lefty while Johnson is out) and that's 3 starts a week plus main PH in the other games. Or go crazy and start him behind the plate, even after Soto is back, and then replace him with Hill for defense late or just double switch him in another spot depending on who is due up. Be creative. Lou's shown a creative streak this year (Marshall in LF, Soriano moving to 3B for the one AB), but he's not fully exploiting Fox's versatility.

As to the comparison players ... over the long-term, you can't not walk and not K in MLB without swinging at stuff outside the zone. Pitchers are only starting to get to know him and just haven't found what he can't handle yet. Now his minor-league walk and K numbers suggest he has OK plate discipline, I'm not suggesting he'll be Soriano or Francoeur much less Wily Mo. I'm just saying the BA will come down as the Ks go up, the current level of ISO is not sustainable, hopefully the walks will pick up to compensate for some of that. He can certainly be an average or above-average hitter for a corner though likely one whose defense ain't gonna help you anywhere. ZiPS RoS puts him at 252/298/460 (fangraphs)* which seems overly pessimistic even to me but call it 280/330/500 and you've got Soriano. Good player to have around, he just doesn't play (or Lou will never let him play) any of the positions the Cubs need right now.

Fine, that's long term, and yeah, you're probably reading too much into the K and BB rates for his time this year (just as I can be overrating his bat overall based on this season). My comment is directed towards how he's being pitched *now* and his current approach and *right now* he's taking what he's getting and absolutely crushing it.

As for next season, I don't know that I think the Cubs should move someone to give him a FT job - unless it were Soriano and no one is touching his deal (not to mention his complete no-trade clause) - but all of those guys are older and can use regular breaks next season as well. He can still get 350-400 PAs as this SUPERSUB and that might just be the best way to utilize him unless we know he's this good (and I think we all know that he's not).

Sorry for the hijack, but I'm having fun. :-) Last one, I promise:

No apologies necessary at all. I'm enjoying it.

thats a fun little stat, i forgot how great the ############ was every other year, and how much he sucked every other year

Once again Hendry and his bizarre contracts come back to bite the Cubs. If Hendry had not handed out a 3 year contract to MB this year it would be a lot easier and vastly cheaper to insert Fox into the starting lineup next year. I think Fox is destined to become a first basemen but I think he could be a passable left fielder. He is definitely not a third basemen.

Starlin Castro promoted to AA.

who the #### is that?

19 year old toolsy SS prospect. Holding his own at A+, but this seems kinda stupid.

I'm not a huge prospect follower, just too much uncertainty, especially when it comes to the Cubs. It's probably a really small chance he ever plays for the Cubs. That being said, I do like hearing that there's at least some talent down there.

Repeating a question from earlier - BTW, what happened to Jose Ceda? I can't seem to find his minor league numbers anywhere, did he get hurt and I miss it/forget? I can't even seem to find what level the Marlins sent him to.

I think Ceda got hurt/fatter.

Castro has a chance at cracking some top 100 lists next year. He along with Vitters, Cashner, Jackson, Lee, and Carpenter make a really solid top 6. I'm actually excited about prospects again after 2 years of crap.

Any desire to write something up on those guys that we could post? I know absolutely nothing about any of them, outside of Vitters.

I would, but do not have home internet access for the next couple days while I get my new place set up. And I don't know nearly enough to write up a post without stealing stuff online. When I get up and running, I'll see if I can get something together.

That'd be great. Even links and stats would probably be useful and interesting.

Aaron Miles off the DL today, sounds like Fuld will be the one being sent down. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miles starting at SS tonight just to give Theriot a true day off, especially after that HBP on his forearm last night. Soto is still scheduled to be back Friday, and I'm guessing one of the pitchers - Stevens or Samardizja - will be the one going. Here's hoping it's BPJ.

Also from today's Trib:

Top prospect Josh Vitters suffered a left hand injury that has put him out of action at Class A Daytona since July 28. It's the same hand problem that limited Vitters to 65 games last year. After starting the season hitting .316 with 15 home runs at Class A Peoria, the third baseman has regressed after being promoted to Daytona. He's hitting .227 in 22 games with no home runs and a .307 slugging percentage. Vitters, a right-handed hitter, is batting .071 against left-handers at Daytona.

Oh, and #### the Mets.

Agreed.

That said, if the Cardinals are going to come back on any team in humiliating fashion, I'd just as soon have it be the Mets.

I mean a 4 run lead in a game Santana starts should never turn into a loss.

No, I knew what you meant.

Oh, and a random observation as we wrap up the series in Cincinnati (since today's game chatters aren't up yet): The Reds' pythag is worse than the Nationals'. Only by a half game, but still. (The Pads' pythag is a good deal worse than either.)

The Reds have run off the tracks.

I would not be surprised if the team won all of 15 games between now and the end of the season. The air around the team is toxic.

This 1-14 stretch has been terrible for the Reds. They were "in" the race until that.

I know, I just don't have the hate for the Mets that your generation does.

I know, I just don't have the hate for the Mets that your generation does.

Indeed. You can scarcely relate to my vivid memories of kicking over the Victrola after another frustrating loss to the Mets.

I would not be surprised if the team won all of 15 games between now and the end of the season. The air around the team is toxic.

That, and they suck on their own merits.

It is truly hard to believe that only a couple of weeks ago it seemed like every team in the NL had a chance to win the division. Now it really does look like it has come down to a two team race.

Unfortunately for the Cubs they dicked around so much in the beginning that they let the Cards hang around and have a shot at the division so the Cards went and got some players to try and make it. If the Cards were 6 games back I doubt they make those trades. This division could have been a cakewalk if the Cubs hadn't taken a walk in the wilderness instead.

Fortunately for the Cubs, if they win the division and the Cards don't get the wild card, their mediocrity at the beginning of the season winds up costing their rival some of their top prospects for no return. This must have been the plan all along.