I have nothing against the Dodgers, but it would be great to see the Cubs hand them their asses this weekend in revenge.

Week 7 thoughts

With a title like that, I expected the entire post to contain profanities and nothing but profanities.

Is it the Dodgers fault that the Cubs had no idea how to hit right handed pitching?

I always wondered about quasi major leaguers who after several years up in the bigs get sent back down to the minors and just can't seem to hit anymore. Is it because they don't care or was it because with their talent they were walking a razor's edge and they finally fell off the edge?

Take Corey Patterson. Not a great major league hitter but he certainly isn't as bad as his minor league numbers this year would indicate.

Is it the Dodgers fault that the Cubs had no idea how to hit right handed pitching?

Since they hit RHP pretty well during the regular season, maybe it was.

The absence of walks is the most disturbing thing about this last week. Walks are usually the thing you can point to for a slumping player/team and go, "Hey, at least they're seeing the ball well."

Soriano's been awful the last couple weeks, though the scorching/frigid patterns are just part of his game. Theriot seems to be having one, two, or three-pitch ABs since he found this power. Bradley seems to either be smacking the ball right to a fielder or hitting weak grounders. Fontenot shouldn't be a regular.

One thing slightly encouraging is that the Cubs seemed to be hitting a lot of hard hit balls in the wrong places the last few games. Soto and Bradley, for instance, hit balls yesterday that'd be homers most places.

Regardless, there's way too much silver lining talk happening about a team that was supposed to easily contend. I don't like the makeup for this team right now. Miles, I think, has to be viewed as expendable when Ramirez comes back and perhaps even before, if they make a trade. Fontenot has been a bust, and Bradley has done about as poorly as you could have possibly imagined.

The pitching's been very good, but the offense cannot keep going to the plate with the Baker approach and hope to contend.

Moses hits the nail on the head ... again and again and again. :-) Ugh.

A key point is the walks. The Cubs led the NL last year, this year they're 11th. That said, I'm hard-pressed to find anyone who's walking any less than expected or less than last year. All we're getting from Soto, Bradley and Fontenot is walks.

Are walks just way up everywhere? The Cubs "isoOBP" (OBP-BA ... I know it doesn't make sense) last year was 76, this year it's 80. Last year the Cubs had 636 walks in 6384 PA; this year it's 154 in 1599, not a big difference (and the HBP rate is up a smidgen).

For the NL this year, it's 10.4 PA per BB which is nearly as good as the 2008 Cubs (10.04) and the 2009 Cubs are right on that average. In 2008, the NL was 11.3 PA per BB.

So the Cubs primary problem compared to last year is BA (278 vs. 243); the ISOs are close (165 vs 155); the HR rate is up a smidgen. The K-rate is up (1 per 5.4 PA in 2008, 1 per 5 PA in 2009) but still the main issue seems to be BABIP. And that scoring is up overall (the 2008 Cubs would rank just 3rd this year whereas they led the league by nearly .4 r/g last year).

Yeah, I've looked at the same stats as Walt Davis (I just typoed that as "Walk Davis", interesting) and I've come to pretty much the same conclusion.

Anyway, as per this week; promising stuff from Lee, who's pounding the ball. Soto has actually looked very good - he hit at least two balls yesterday that would be home runs anywhere else and has generally been hitting a lot of stuff hard. His LD% is down a bit from his career, but one thing that I've noted is that his HR/FB percentage is far worse than usual: in 2007, it was 12.5%, 2008 10.8%, and then this year is 2.3% so far this year. I haven't seen anything to point to a drastic change, and especially given that he's hitting balls hard again, I'd expect that to go up.

Compared to the rest of this team, Fukudome's actually had a nice little month - not a lot of hits, but he's getting on base a little (.333 isn't a great OBP, but compared to the rest of the team, it's excellent). His SLG in May is .356, but he's getting on base enough for me not to be totally frightened. In all honesty, I think that he performed this week a lot better than his numbers indicated, but that might just be because I like him.

Fontenot is scaring me. This week was actually one of his better weeks. Hopefully he might begin hitting the ball a little more. Bradley too - I think he crossed the Mendoza line for a little bit midweek and dropped down. In all fairness to him, though, I can recall some pretty terrible calls, but to say "umpires are targeting him" is nonsense. One person I'm getting really concerned about is Hoffpauir. He took some really awkward swings this week and even the commentators noted that other teams seem to have adjusted to him rather well and he's not adjusted back - in his last 23 PA, he has 2 BBs, and none this week. That's not very good. From what I can tell, he's just not hitting the ball very hard, which also isn't good.

I'm a little more positive towards the pitching. Lou's use of Shawn Marshall made me blanch but thankfully he'll be starting and Randy Wells actually looks somewhat for-real. Aaron Heilman got me upset yesterday, but Neal Cotts actually got some people out, which I nearly fainted at.

I also agree with #2.

Miles - .100/.100/.100

So his numbers went up this week?

League IsoOBP this season is 78. Last year it was 71. The Cubs rank so low in raw walks because they've only played 42 games, two fewer than league average. A few days ago, I calculated that the Cubs are 7th in BB/PA.

Read my mind #11.

where the #### did that come from?

I should say that my impression about the walks was the same as Moses's and I was surprised when I checked the data. Of course I should have had enough sense to change my opening sentence to make me look smarter. :-)

11. SouthSideRyan Posted: May 25, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3192800)
Read my mind #11.

Yeah. . . . . I suppose so.

11. SouthSideRyan Posted: May 25, 2009 at 08:28 PM (#3192800)
Read my mind #11.

Yeah. . . . . I suppose so.

Post 11 was originally a spam post about Red Sox rookies years.

Jake Fox:

.423/.503/.886

Heh, I was debating whether or not to delete than post, but it was done for me. Nice.

With a title like that, I expected the entire post to contain profanities and nothing but profanities.

I'm trying to maintain a facade of professionalism here.

I'm trying to maintain a facade of professionalism here.

If week 8 looks anything like week 7, that should go out the window.

I'm curious as to why I'm feeling slightly better about things after reading this discussion. The Cubs tried about as hard as they could to ruin what was a great weekend. At least pouring some gin on the game last night made me sleep well.

I'm going to complain about something I usually don't. The strike zone was all over the place last night. It was totally random. I felt bad for the pitchers because they couldn't possibly have known what was and what wasn't a strike.

I thought that fact alone was reason enough for Lou to blow up, and maybe light up this team.

You neglected to mention the biggest story of Week 7 Moses. The Cubs lost their first game in which Aaron Miles did not make an appearance.

19's right. I try to avoid complaining about the zone, because it can be so subjective. But the ump was atrocious. When Ted Lilly, a normal-mannered guy, is getting kicked out of a game he wasn't even in because he's complaining about the zone, there's a problem. Hoffpauir had NO chance in that last at bat because of those first two "strikes."

I'm trying to maintain a facade of professionalism here.

If the Cubs aren't, why should you?

The "floating" strike zone is a recurring topic these days. Once upon a time folks would gripe about a zone that was focussed on low and away but at least it was consistent. Now, you have zones that seem to change from hitter to hitter as whether the corner is a strike or not.

As I mentioned in another thread, in yesterday's Brewer game Cris Carpenter was chewing through the Brewers batters so easily between his stuff and the shadows around home plate there was never really an issue. But Yovani had a good ten pitches that had been called strikes at other times, LOOKED like solid strikes but were called balls. About the fifth inning Jason Kendall was getting testy and by the 7th d*mn close to getting ejected. And for good reason. When you have a batter flinch on a 2-strike pitch as if he knows he is getting rung up and everyone pauses waiting for the seemingly obvious strike call only for it not to come you know there is a bit of confusion.

It was just so ODD.

Though I do enjoy my HDTV showing me Kendall fume mask or no mask.

Harvey,

I was at the game yesterday (amazing seats). We noticed the same thing. Great game. And good for Billy Hall. Hard to not root for that guy.

Jack:

Some of those pregnant pauses by Yovani/Jason/Cardinal batter were hysterical. It was like the bit from the movie where Lindsey Nielsen was the umpire. Everyone's just looking around waiting for the call.

Only in the movie Nielsen got it RIGHT!

i didnt even know lilly was ejected last night. overall this year iv seen a lot of really bad strike zones and well terrible umpiring all around, pretty sad

and wasnt last nights homeplate ump fored after the 05 wbc?

You neglected to mention the biggest story of Week 7 Moses. The Cubs lost their first game in which Aaron Miles did not make an appearance.

That's terrible news. That means the suckiness of Miles has fully infected the team.

i didnt even know lilly was ejected last night. overall this year iv seen a lot of really bad strike zones and well terrible umpiring all around, pretty sad

That was odd for Lilly to get that upset. I think he was ejected before he came onto the field, but maybe the losing is starting to get to guys.

AARON MILES TO THE DL!! AARON MILES TO THE DL!!!!

Also: Cotts and Scales down, Waddell and Blanco up.

And Jake Fox hath been set free.

So now the Cubs have three options for first base and two band-aids for the outfield. Plus a no hit MI to replace the other no hit MI.

Interesting to hear an ump answer questions. This has to do with Davidson ejecting Lilly. The gem (especially for those who saw the game):

"There was no contact," Davidson said. "We never came close, on his part or mine. And everything he said to [the media] was bull. Everything I read in the paper that he said was untrue. He never said one of those words. What he said to me, you couldn't print in the paper."

Lilly said Monday he told Davidson to "concentrate."

"He never said that," Davidson said. "I just found out I scored just about a 96 [out of 100] on my plate job, so my concentration was pretty [darn] good in my opinion."

MLB umpiring supervisors grade umpires on a daily basis after reviewing videotapes.

Davidson said out of 215 pitches Monday, he was told he'd missed 10.

"Eight of them were pitches I called strikes that shouldn't have been," he said. "The other two, one went against Pittsburgh and one went against Chicago. My concentration was excellent."

Carrie Muskat:

* Speaking of Fox, Piniella isn't ready to start him at third even though the Cubs are desperately seeking some offensive help from that spot. Fox will workout with bench coach Alan Trammell at third so he's not a defensive liability. "We'd love to have his bat in the lineup," Piniella said of Fox. "Let's see him over there for a few more days working with Alan and I'll let Alan make that determination."

Hope to see a good series between the Dodgers and Cubs this weekend.

Also, I believe this is the first time the Dodgers have appeared on ESPN's Sunday Night baseball.

DeRosa is now at a 99 ops+. After a dreadful start DeRosa is knocking the ball around at a .352/.453 pace and has a .938 OPS over the last two weeks.

Fontenot?
Miles?

Speaking of Fox, Piniella isn't ready to start him at third even though the Cubs are desperately seeking some offensive help from that spot. Fox will workout with bench coach Alan Trammell at third so he's not a defensive liability. "We'd love to have his bat in the lineup," Piniella said of Fox. "Let's see him over there for a few more days working with Alan and I'll let Alan make that determination."
If Aramis can play the position then anyone can.

Does anyone else think the Big-Z blowup will be exactly what the team needs to get back to their winning ways ala the BigZ-Barrett melee or the Sweet Lou tirade at third base in 2007??

If Aramis can play the position then anyone can.

That's not fair to Ramirez, and you know it.

Does anyone else think the Big-Z blowup will be exactly what the team needs to get back to their winning ways ala the BigZ-Barrett melee or the Sweet Lou tirade at third base in 2007??

I jokingly said as much in the chatter. I think we spend too much time nowadays looking for things like that, and it's not going to be "obvious" until after the season anyway. I guess it depends on how much momentum you think exists in baseball, and I don't think there's that much. Now, it can be something that lights a fire under other guys and maybe gets them to concentrate more. But how long does something like this linger? It could have had an impact yesterday, it could have an impact today, but what about in a week or a month?

seeing as how this year is going, watch Jake Fox pull a DuBois/Pie and hit like squat in the Show

/sorry, I don't mean to hate, but I've started studying for the bar and I'm already a little edgy.

My money is more on playing the Pirates having an impact on the team's fortunes, but after the SD debacle, who knows.

We ought to count ourselves damn lucky that ugly slide only cost about 3 games in the standings.

Nothing will ever make me long for F Troop, of course, but it continues to appall and amaze me how poorly this bench is constructed.

The inflexibility it presents drives me up a wall.

The bench was basically built around the view that the starters would start and hit. So the bench was for the occasional off day and a bat off the bench in the late innings. With Aramis going down; Soto and Bradley; Fontenot failing the Cubs have had to use the bench in a way they hadn't planned for. Miles, like Neifi Perez, wasn't supposed to get this much playing time but he is. Bradley and Soto are supposed to be hitting and thus allowing the bench to stay on the bench until the late innings. Now, players like Miles and Hoff are starting and when they do there is nobody on the bench that can hit and quite a few holes in the lineup.

6 games, and he'll probably appeal and get it dropped to 5 and not miss a start.

Of course, I should RTFA and see he's not appealing so his suspension starts now and with the off days it doesn't hurt the Cubs.

Just freaking sell the team already, Sam.

Obvious posturing by a horse's ass.

Davidson said out of 215 pitches Monday, he was told he'd missed 10.

There were 373 total pitches thrown in Monday's game, so I presume that the difference were the pitches at which the batter swung (and therefore no call was needed). But I'd bet that of the 215, 80% (or more) were of the "no-doubt-about-it" variety, either obvious strikes or obvious balls that even the least competent umpires get correct (because if they don't, they don't get to the majors in the first place). And if you throw those out (as you should), then how does Davidson's score look compared to other umpires?

-- MWE