Zambrano isn’t going anywere
Now that a February Newsblog link about Mark Prior or Kerry Wood is likely to attract little more than a series of snarky jokes (great job, by the way, on the hot tub thread), Carlos Zambrano’s status as the ace of the Cubs pitching staff is uncontested. Zambrano has shown the sort of consistency that you expect from the best and brightest in the game. Four straight years, covering ages 22-25, where he made at least 31 starts and pitched over 200 innings. ERA+ figures consistently over 130. No one in the league has shown that combination of durability and quality over the last four years.
Zambrano is in his last arb year, and with the dust otherwise settled on what has been a head-spinning off-season for the Cubs, he remains unsigned beyond this season with free agency looming. My take on this, and I believe a lot of you agree with me, is that there is no chance in hell that the Cubs are going to let Carlos Zambrano walk away. It is unfathomable. With a tenuous hold on his job, Hendry has thrown everything he has at the 2007 season, with his bosses backing him up. If he does all of that and then lets Carlos Zambrano become a free agent…well, no one should feel sorry for him if he lets that happen. Hendry has to have read Larry Himes’ chapter in the Cubs history book, and if he chooses to repeat it, then he deserves whatever he gets.
Today, in his first day in Spring Training camp, Zambrano caught reporters off—guard by announcing that he was on the verge of signing a five-year deal. The Cubs organization responded by saying they were a long way from that. Things have gone back and forth in recent weeks, with Zambrano saying he wants Zito money (which actually seems reasonable considering how much better he is than Zito), then making it clear that he intends to leave after 2007 if the Cubs fail to sign him prior to the season.
Zambrano has his flaws, and I think a lot of people are wondering if Hendry is less than enthusiastic about holding on to him. The Cubs have spent a jaw-dropping amount of money so far, and one does have to wonder if there is anything left. To that I can only say, come on. The Cubs could probably sign Zambrano long-term and pay him no more than the $11+ million they offered him in arbitration for 2007, so their budget for next season would not change much. As for finances in 2008 and beyond, I really don’t think Hendry is worrying too much about that.
I expect Zambrano to sign a long-term deal, and I think it will probably happen before Tuesday’s scheduled arbitration hearing. At the very least, I expect the Cubs to settle before Tuesday and then sign him long-term in the coming weeks. This would not be a smart choice for a first arbitration hearing in 14 years, and the Cubs have nothing to gain by not settling. And even if they don’t settle, Hendry is not an idiot. Zambrano will get a long-term contract.
Andere Richtingen
Posted: February 16, 2007 at 09:12 PM |
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Their honesty is slipping backwards again?
I guess I just answered my question.
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
However, I think you're probably right that Zambrano will sign with the Cubs. I also think Prior will eventually have a decent career. I don't think he'll ever be healthy enough over a stretch of years to be a truly dominant pitcher, but he can still become respectable. Whether or not that happens this year or not is impossible to say.
I do not think that word means what you think it means.
Okay Dr. Safire, I should have said that a situation where Zambrano is not extended is unfathomable.
Counting on a pitcher who has been healthy 2 of the last 3 years isn't unreasonable, but counting on a pitcher who has been healthy in 0 of the last 3 seasons is pretty stupid.
I would agree that completely discounting the possibility of Prior ever making a comeback is unwarranted. He is not your garden variety broken down pitcher. In his three injury-ridden seasons, the only one where he was truly bad was the last one, and even that offered a glimmer of hope in that he struck out almost 8 batters per 9 innings. His BB, HR and BA against were horrible, of course, but I'm not going to be shocked to see him get back on track. It's impossible for us to guess what his current physical status is, and thus if this is even possible, but if he can make it back even to where he was in 2005, he's a significant plus. I don't think that's an unreasonable thing for us to have on our radar screen of hopes.
Understood (pun intended), but I disagree. Even when I take Hendry's shortcomings into account, I cannot imagine a situation where he would let Zambrano get away after this season. When was the last time the Cubs let a popular, star-quality player walk away? There is nothing in recent history that would come close to letting Zambrano go, and some Cubs fans are still mad about Larry Himes letting Andre Dawson leave. There may be some hidden factors at play that we don't know about, but when you evaluate what's evident to us, I think the chances of Zambrano not being extended are zilch. I suppose they could reach an agreement where Zambrano backs down and keeps negotiating into the season, but that's as far as I can see it going.
So you basically advocate a blank check for Zambrano?
Is the Zito contract a blank check, or the going rate for an ace pitcher? I don't like the idea of making a seven year commitment to any pitcher, but it appears that if you want the best, that's what you've got to do. If Zambrano is willing to go for fewer years, I would hope that Hendry sees that as a positive opportunity.
Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I think it's inevitable.
I guess I just answered my question.
There are no perfect answers, but I did want to resurrect this comment to mention 2 (recent, in one case) Cardinal pitchers....
Chris Carpenter, for one.... Carpenter was a highly touted prospect (and 1st round pick) in Toronto. He was putting forth pretty good efforts (though nothing on Prior's 2003 campaign), got hurt, released -- seemed to be 'done' -- before being resurrected.
Matt Morris is another... put up a 130 ERA+ in 33 starts as a 22 year-old, got slagged by LaRussa -- missed nearly 2 full seasons, was thought to be relegated to the bullpen before coming back to win 22 games with an ERA+ of 137 at age 26.
I swore off it after last year's debacle --- but my Prior optimism regulator is in the shop for its annual tune-up this week, so while I certainly don't think Prior should be "counted on".... I do think there are plenty of pitchers that have faced injury-related problems early in their career but have been able to come back.
Even if he never becomes 'MARK PRIOR<superscript>tm</superscript>' - I think that if becomes even Matt Morris, the Cubs rotation is in fine shape.
Jim Palmer.
I think it's quite fathomable, but admittedly unlikely. I really don't like the laissez-faire way that Hendry has acted about the situation. Here's how I can see it going bad:
For the next few weeks, Hendry puts Zambrano on the back-burner, thinking Zambrano will stay and they just have to work things out. The last week of Spring Training, he starts talks again, but finds that (a) they are miles apart and (b) if anything, Zambrano and his agent feel like they gave up too much in this year's contract and want to make up for it. Talks remain at an impasse until Opening Day, at which point Zambrano says he's playing out the season.
At the end of the season, Zambrano says that he wants to be a Cub, but also wants to hear what other teams have to say. The Yankees or Mets offer him $20mm for 6 years and even Hendry has to say he can't afford it.
I don't think this scenario is likely, but it's definitely not far-fetched.
Unfathomable= "difficult or impossible to understand/comprehend." I think it's accepted usage by now that one may call the theory of relativity "unfathomable" even though it isn't actually impossible to comprehend.
So Andere makes a sense to me when he says, "My take on this, and I believe a lot of you agree with me, is that there is no chance in hell that the Cubs are going to let Carlos Zambrano walk away. It is [difficult or impossible to comprehend]."
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