I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Tim Raines-LF/CF/DH (n/e): Not an inner-circle player, but could have been if he had sustained his prime a little longer. But he doesn't need to apologize for his career - it was still exceptional. Best ML left fielder for 1986 and 1987 (I like Guerrero in '85, but that's arguable and Raines did have a monster season). Close to being the best NL left fielder in the NL in 1983. Close to being the best ML center fielder in 1984.

2) Bus Clarkson-SS/3B (4): Looks like the best shortstop of the Forties, which is surprising to me. IMO, Eric would have to be totally off with his projections for Clarkson not to be near the top of everybody's ballot. Shave off 50 WS from his MLE and he still comfortably belongs.

3) Lee Smith-RP (5): Having his career occur during a major rethinking of his position really distorts his true value, IMO. All things equal, Gossage was better, but not that much better. Never the best for any one season, but consistently among the best for many a year.

4) Bucky Walters-P (6): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

5) Mickey Welch-P (7): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

6) Vic Willis-P (8): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

7) Gavvy Cravath-RF (9): I buy the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11 (not full credit for '08, since he did play some in the majors that year). Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

8) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (10): Best third baseman of the Forties. He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career when compared to other third basemen throughout history. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950. Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

9) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (11): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

10) Pie Traynor-3B (12): Best white third baseman of his time (though J. Wilson and Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

11) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

12) Dick Lundy-SS (n/e): First time on my ballot. Possibly should be higher, but I'm playing it on the conservative side right now. Not a dominating shortstop during his time, but he had a lot of great competition. Good enough peak and long career deserves a spot on a ballot.

13) Bobby Bonds (14): One of my favorites growing up as a kid. He could do it all. Made his debut on my 3rd birthday, which I believe means something. Best ML right fielder for 1970 (close in 1971). Best NL right fielder for 1971 and 1973.

14) Reggie Smith (15): Underrated since he could do everything well instead of being a specialist in one area. Best AL rightfielder for 1972. Close to being the best AL centerfielder for 1968. Best NL rightfielder for 1974.

15) Tommy Bridges-P (n/e): Back on my ballot after a week off. I'm giving him WWII credit. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

Saberhagen, Puckett, Redding, Leach and Johnson all exist in my top-40, but they just fall short.

PHoM: Tim Raines, Dick Lundy, Joe Greene (don't ask...)

1. Tim Raines (new)

An easy number 1 for me. The gap between 1 and 2 is the furthest on the ballot.

2. Tony Perez (3,1,3)

Which isn't to say I don't support Perez. :)
If it isn't clear by now, I heavily support career as deciding criteria.

3. Tommy Leach (7,4,4)

Supported enough not to be considered overlooked.

4. Reggie Smith (4,2,5)

Too many outfielders? I don't think so. Not if they deserve it.

5. Dick Lundy (10,x,x)

I am a Dick supporter.

6. George van Haltren (6,5,6)

I hope we rectify this mistake some day, but I am not holding me breath.

7. Rusty Staub (9,8,10)

Best name in baseball.

8. Mickey Welch (8,6,7)

The (full career) pitching version of GvH.

9. Lou Brock (12,10,11)

Stolen bases count.

10. Hugh Duffy (12,10,11)
11. Ken Singleton (13,11,12)

Different eras but same situation.

12. Bob Johnson (15,12,13)

I like him, but I don't think he should get in before the luminaries above.

13. Norm Cash (x,14,x)

14. Dick Redding (x,x,x)

15. Kirby Puckett (x,15,15)

Sneaks back on the bottom.

16-20. Mullane, Murphy, Willis, Bonds, Monroe
21-25. Streeter, Cepeda, Grimes, Strong, John
26-30. Greene, Gleason, Robinson, Souell, Doyle

Raines near the top but not quite an “elect-me” spot. – v good player but severely overrated by WS, should be about 340 not 390. Finley I’d completely forgotten; better than his obscurity indicates, about Reuschel, maybe a twitch below. Knoblauch short career, not that good, off bottom of consideration set. Justice very short career, though good enough if longer. Anderson even shorter and not good enough either. Not a good year.

1. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3-3-5-4-3-2-2-3-5-2-2-1-2-1-2-1-3) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20. Electorate needs to take him more seriously.

2. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4-4-6-5-4-3-3-4-6-3-3-2-3-3-4-2-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

3. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8-8-10-9-5-4-4-5-7-4-4-3-4-4
-5-3-6) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit more; we’re forgetting him. Berra closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

4. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10-
11-12-11-6-5-5-6-8-5-5-4-5-5-6-4-7) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however. Sliding up ballot.

5. Tim Raines. Grossly overrated by WS but perhaps a little underrated by memory. 2605 hits@123, plus about 4 for CF would put him below the borderline, probably around Staub. However SB exceeds 3xCS by 370, which adds about another 7% and makes his adjusted OPS+134, which is above the borderline. Nevertheless, so are Joss, Cicotte, Lombardi and Stephens.

6. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9-10-11-12-8-7-7-9-10-6-7-5-8-7-7-5-8) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

7. (N/A-6-9) John McGraw. 1309 hits is lousy, but he was a 3B which is equivalent to 2B today, so OPS+ of 135 is about 150, which puts him significantly above Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA .496, TB+BB/Outs.924

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-8-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-12-11-11-13-14-11-12-11-12-10-10-8-11) Tommy John 288-231, 4710IP@111. Infinitesimally below Sutton, better than Kaat.

10. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-13-14-13-14-11-11-9-12) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far. 3021 innings at 119, 207-126 and 83 OPS+ Others should look at him more closely.

11. (N/A-12-10-13)Bret Saberhagen. Short career, not enough wins, but what a quality! 167-117, 2563IP@126ERA+ 126 ERA+ is equal 52nd all-time; Bret’s up there. And I ALWAYS thought of him as HOF/HOM quality, especially when with the Red Sox.

12. (N/A-13-13-11-14) Elmer Smith Deduct 10% from Elmer's Western League 1890 and 1891 batting and slugging percentages we get 301/461 and 284/431 respectively. Comparing against the PL of 1890 gives an OPS+ of about 130, against the NL of 1891 gives an OPS+ of about 139. That gives him 14 years of full-time play; adjust those to 130 game seasons (which I did for 19th century players gives him about 2140 hits at an OPS+ of 128-129 plus a pitching record of about 1400IP at an ERA+ of 113 and a W/L of about 96-72. Elmer baby, you're on my ballot, albeit at the bottom of it. Only 97 years late.

13. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13-11-13-14-13-11-10-10-12-13-10-11-10-11-9-9-12-15) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history, but down a little when I look at Belle. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

14. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14
-14-13-N/A) Mickey Welch. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP. Will now be on and off ballot.

15. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A-14-15-14-15-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. We don’t have enough Beaneaters! However he’s not quite as good as Elmer Smith.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-13-12-14-15-12-13-12-13-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars, but he was significantly below Elmer Smith, either as hitter or pitcher.

17. (N/A-15-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.

18. (N/A-12-N/A) Fred Lynn. Underrated, considerably better than Rice or Hernandez. 1960 hits at 130, but bonus for playing CF. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .791. Lovely player to watch, and absolutely top-drawer at his best.

19. David Cone 2898IP@120 194-126. WS seems to be underrating modern pitchers just as it overrates modern hitters. Not quite Sabes, but better than Tiant and Reuschel.

20. Albert Belle 1726 hits @143. Short career, not quite Frank Howard but Frank was a little high. TB+BB/PA .597 TB+BB/Outs .896

21. Reggie Smith Could be another Red Sox cap, but not quite. 2020 hits@137 but quite close to W. Clark as was a CF. TB+BB/PA .537 TB+BB/Outs .810

22. (N/A-14-N/A-15-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation. Looking at Reuschel, a little overplaced so have slipped him down.

23. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis Had slipped too far.

24. (N/A) Lee Smith 71-92 +478 saves. 1289IP @132. I find these relievers difficult to rank because their usage changes; with the exception of Wilhelm I don’t see any of them as clearly IN. (Rivera very short career in IP terms so far, and ERA+ declining as we speak.) Still, Lee Smith was better than Fingers and I think Gossage, though that one’s close.

25. Gavvy Cravath 1134 hits@150. Add 50% to career and deduct 5 points for more years in early career makes him 1699 hits @145, still a very short career, but comparable to Hack. TB+BB/PA .527, TB+BB/Outs .835.

26. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-14-N/A) Hack Wilson. TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

27. Rick Reuschel. 214-191, 3548IP@114. Tough to put him far from Tiant, who had a better W/L, but I now realized I was overvaluing Tiant a bit because of Red Sox affiliation.

28. Steve Finley Obscure and slightly mediocre 200-173, but 3197 IP @115. Just below Reuschel and Tiant.

29. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

30. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

31. Brian Downing. 2099 hits at 122 plus he caught about 1/3 of his games. TB+BB/PA.487 TB+BB/Outs.741

32. Tony Perez. Close to Staub but below him. 2732 hits at 122. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .731.
33. Bill Madlock.
34. Toby Harrah
35. Ben Taylor.
36. Jim Kaat
37. Orlando Cepeda
38. Norm Cash
39. Jim Rice
40. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
41. Cesar Cedeno
42. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
43. Lou Brock
44. Mickey Vernon
45. Thurmon Munson
46. Sal Maglie.
47. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
48. (N/A) Heinie Manush
49. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
50. Bob Elliott
51. (N/A) Dick Lundy
52. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
53. Jack Clark. As good as Reggie Smith but not for as long. 1826 hits@137OPS+, TB+BB .529, TB+BB/Outs .845
54. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
55. Harold Baines 2866 hits @120. TB+BB/PA .511 TB+BB/Outs .757. Lower than Staub and Perez.
56. Dennis Martinez 3999IP@106, 245-193. A lesser Kaat.
57. Jimmy Key
58. Dave Parker.
59. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
60. Gene Tenace
61. Kiki Cuyler
62. Deacon McGuire
63. Jerry Koosman.
64. Boog Powell
65. Ken Singleton.
66. Bucky Walters 198-160, 3104IP at 115 certainly doesn’t make the ballot, but should be on the consideration set, so here he is. Less than Tiant or Reuschel..
67. Sal Bando.
68. Jim Fregosi.
69. Jack Quinn
70. Tony Mullane
71. Ron Cey
72. Jose Canseco.
73. Pie Traynor
74. Jim McCormick
75. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
76. Joe Judge
77. Spotswood Poles.
78. Buddy Bell.
79. Larry Doyle
80. Kirby Puckett 2304 hits @124. TB+BB/PA .498 TB+BB/Outs .738 Overrated badly by the HOF; 5 adjusted OPS+ points short of Cepeda, who’s below the ballot.
81. (N/A)Tony Fernandez. Turn him into an outfielder and he’s Kirby, so here he is. 2276 hits @101, TB+BB/PA .438 TB+BB/Outs .634
82. Curt Simmons
83. Waite Hoyt.
84. Harry Hooper.
85. Vada Pinson
86. Gil Hodges
87. Jules Thomas.
88. Rico Carty.
89. Wilbur Cooper
90. Bruce Petway.
91. Jack Clements
92. Frank Tanana
93. Don Mattingley.
94. Orel Hershiser 204-150, 3130 IP@112. Not quite enough
95. Bill Monroe
96. Herb Pennock
97. Chief Bender
98. Ed Konetchy
99. Al Oliver
100. Darryl Strawberry.
101. Jesse Tannehill
102. Bobby Veach
103. Chet Lemon.
104. Lave Cross
105. Tommy Leach. Inferior to Childs, even if he’d played 3B his whole career, which he didn’t. Overall, Cross was better, too (2645@100 translates to 2645@ almost 120 with position bonus.) 2143 hits @109, which translates to at most 119 when you add say 50% of a 1900 3B bonus of 20. Not close.

106. Tom York

I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

I am really lost after my top 11. I cannot make a distinction between the value of the players anymore at that level. If I had a choice, I’d only vote for 6 candidates.

1. Tim Raines -- He is basically Brock with 600 extra walks and 1100 fewer outs. I guess, that in itself, makes him clearly better than Brock.


2. Lou Brock – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. With Beckley elected, he is my last real Teddy Bear.

4. Tony Perez – 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Tommy John – not too far from Grimes, a step above Kaat (at 17). No credit for the surgery, but medical pioneers (even the guinea pigs) get my respect.

8. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Martinez, Kaat, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

9. Jim Rice – I like the 77-79 peak. I like the runs created in his ten+ year prime and I like his overall totals. I do adjust raw totals significantly, but I think people are holding Fenway too much against him. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the American League in total games played, at-bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging percentage, total bases, extra-base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.

10. Dave Parker – I think he is very similar to Rice, but I like Rice’s peak better. Their career counting stats impress me.

11. Albert Belle – I thought I would love him. What a peak! I hope the peaksters put him high, but as a career voter, this is as high as he can get for me.

12. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me, but not even the best starch on the ballot.

13. Orlando Cepeda – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means 20+ spaces on this ballot.

14. Luis Tiant – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

15. Pie Traynor -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

16. Harold Baines – 32nd all time in total bases, the DHing keeps him well behind Perez. I see him as a better candidate than Staub. I might move him on to the ballot next year, as I think about it some more.
17. Jim Kaat
18. Lance Parrish
19. Jack Morris
20. Aparicio -- those 1000 extra outs separate him from Fox, as does the poorer defence.
21. Rusty Staub
22. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.
23. Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining.
24. Dizzy Dean
25. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.


Saberhagen -- not really in my consideration set -- certainly not in my top 70 - I just don't think his career was long enough or exceptional enough. IMHO, he will be the biggest mistake we have made among players I have seen play. As a Jays fan in 1985 (one of Sabes' great years) I can tell you we (the fans) feared Jackson, Leibrandt and Gubicza as much or more than Saberhagen.

Smith -- 39th on my ballot, like Puckett and Johnson, part of my outfiled off-ballot glut that also includes GVH, Ryan, Duffy, Pinson, Bonds, Arlett, Wilson, Howard, Colavito and Cravath.

Puckett -- 26th on my ballot, see above.

Johnson -- 34th on my ballot, see above.

Walters -- He is about fourth of my off-ballot pitchers, which puts him in the high 40s.

Leach -- 25th on my ballot, though a very fine line separates Leach from Traynor (who is 15th). They used to be adjacent to each other on the ballot.

"Tommy Bridges-P (n/e): Never the best in his league"

Who do you have as better in the AL from 1934-1936?

Karlmagnus - Chuck, not Steve, Finley.

2008 Ballot – Turn out the lights, the party’s over. It’s been fun, guys.

1. Tim Raines. One of my favorite players growing up.

2. Dick Redding. If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined. I’m going to be disappointed if he never makes it to the HOM.

3. John McGraw. I have had McGraw high before. Looking at the 3B on my ballot and available for election, I think that John J. just had the unique skill set that makes him Meritorious.

4. Larry Doyle. His hitting peak continues to impress me as unique.

5. Bob Johnson. Strong player every year of his 12-year career. At 38, did what a HOMer is supposed to do in a wartime league.

6. Tommy Leach. A good player from an underrepresented period.

7. Sal Bando. High enough late-60’s early 70’s peak that comparables like Bell and Cey seem to lack.

8. Dizzy Dean. Seems a better choice than Walters. Outstanding from 1932-1937, and even when he was able to pitch for the rest of his career.

9. George Van Haltren. Still some support from me.

10. Bill Monroe. Great overlooked player.

11. Ben Taylor. I think Ben was a smidgen better than Jake Beckley. I have no idea what KJOK has discovered to drop Taylor from the ballot.

12. Tony Perez. The longetivity is too much for me to ignore.

13. Reggie Smith. Some playing time issues, which I am working through.

14. Luis Tiant. Seems very similar to Cone.

15. David Cone. Sure, Tiant had more innings, but pitched when starters generally accumulated more.

LAST YEAR TOP 10 with comments

SP. Bucky Walters. What a pitching peak, but too much of the peak is war years.

SP. Bret Saberhagen. Another great peak, but he has PT issues.

CF. Kirby Puckett. Not a high enough peak for his short career.

Top pitchers in the AL, 1934-36, by preliminary Rosenheck WARP2:

1. Wes Ferrell, 21.1
2. Lefty Grove, 16.6
3. Schoolboy Rowe, 15.6
4. Tommy Bridges, 14.1

As a Jays fan in 1985 (one of Sabes' great years) I can tell you we (the fans) feared Jackson, Leibrandt and Gubicza as much or more than Saberhagen.

Well, the Jays had good reason to fear the first two, since the good sides of their platoons hit lefty. And Gubicza over Saberhagen - at the time - was defensible.

-- MWE

2008 Ballot

PHoM this year is Raines, Dick Lundy and David Cone. Vic Willis, Urban Shocker, Biz Mackey and Wally Schang are next in line.

My system is rather back of the envelope but it gives me the results I want. First is to give simple credit for career value over replacement using Dan R's WARP numbers. Second is to add in bonuses based on career value above average. I make no attempts to confine value within a particular season. I have about 30% pitching in my PHoM vs. the 25% in the HoM so my ballot gets pitching heavy. The top of my ballot after Raines are approx 25th percentile in my PHoM.

1) Tim Raines - Would have been 2nd on the 2007 ballot ahead of Gwynn. Slots below Kaline all-time.
2) Luis Tiant - Does well in comparison to other elected pitchers on peak, prime and career. Not strikingly different than Marichal, Pierce, Bunning, Drysdale.
3) Tommy Bridges - Best rate production of the pitchers available, maintained that rate for a long period of time despite (perhaps because of) innings pitched numbers that aren't overwhelming. There are fewer pitchers elected from Bridges' era than any other. It wasn't easy to pitch in the AL of the 1930s and early 1940s. Deserves some war credit.
4) Rick Reuschel - Good hitter and fielder for a pitcher, as good of a pitcher as Jim Bunning.
5) Bret Saberhagen - The filler seasons are all above average, the peak seasons are outstanding.
6) Tommy Leach - Looks like he's my top backlog position player. Not as much bat as McGraw but more glove and just as good on the basepaths. Played two mid-spectrum defensive positions very well. Long career, especially for his era.
7) David Cone - Just a little bit less impressive than Saberhagen. Nobody thinks of either Saberhagen or Cone as a type of player you should enshrine which means people are underappreciating just how well they pitched.
8) Bus Clarkson - I like his bat over Lundy's glove. The new information on the Mexican League ban helps to explain further how he slipped through history relatively unnoticed.
9) John McGraw - Those are some astounding rate statistics for any era. It's also a short career which is why he only gets this high on the ballot.
10) Reggie Smith - Best available outfielder, in my PHoM. Good defensive value helps his case along with the relatively long career. Gets a little Japan credit.
11) Jim McCormick - Don't forget that he's a good hitter as well. Certainly more impressive than Mickey Welch's mediocrity.
12) Dick Lundy - Dave Bancroft with a little more career.
13) Virgil Trucks - Needs a little war credit to make the ballot but he deserves it.
14) Bob Johnson - Similar to Reggie Smith how he kept putting up good numbers year after year but never led the league in anything. Good fielder. I don't agree that war discounts make up for his missing PCL years. In order to make that claim you'd have to discount WWII baseball more than 33% which would mean the league went from MLB quality to AA in 2 years. Better than 3-4 contemporary outfielders who have been elected.
15) Lee Smith - Gets the final ballot spot because nobody has been able to shed any more light on Dick Redding. Smith is my in-out line for relief pitchers (and Fingers is out).

16-20) Ben Taylor (PHoM), Vic Willis, Urban Shocker, Wally Schang, Dick Redding (PHoM)
21-25) Norm Cash, Dutch Leonard, Gene Tenace, Tommy John, Gavy Cravath
26-30) Lave Cross, Jack Quinn, Phil Rizzuto, Nap Rucker, Ron Cey

Chuck Finley is somewhere in the low 30s. Dave Justice compares to Jack Clark and George Burns. Knoblauch is not quite Bobby Avila. Brady Anderson doesn't make the consideration set.

43) Bucky Walters - not sure he was better than Dizzy Dean
93) Kirby Puckett - an exceptionally short career, especially for his era, although if you extend his career logically I still see him falling just short

DL from MN, thanks -- just checked I got the pitcher. Talliers, I meant Chuck.

Both obscure, both will have marginal cases for HOM consideration. Very confusing.

PHOM - Raines, Cone, Belle

1. Tim Raines - 7th best LFer (though Musial and Rose played other positions)

2. Tony Perez - Long career (23rd in games, 34th in total bases, 62nd in runs created) and a nice peak split between third and first.

3. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

4. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career.

5. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

6. Leroy Matlock - MLE's show a pretty good 3000 innings and a nice peak.

7. Dale Murphy - Great hitting centerfielder. Excellent peak from '82-'87.

8. Bret Saberhagen - Similar to Trout. Good peak. May have been the MVP in '89.

9. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

10. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. David Cone - Similar to Saberhagen, but never had a season like Sabes '89.

13. Kirby Puckett - Good hitting, good fielding centerfielder. Not a long career, but a very good peak.

14. Dick Lundy - New MLEs shoot him up here. Decent hitter and good-great defender.

15. Albert Belle - Damn could he hit. 103 XBH in 144 games, and that wasn't even his best season.

16. Frank Tanana
17. Lee Smith
18. Buddy Bell
19. Ken Singleton
20. Bobby Bonds
21. Hugh Duffy
22. George Van Haltren
23. Ceasar Cedeno
24. Dave Parker
25. Brett Butler
26. Vada Pinson
27. Tommy John
28. Norm Cash
29. Lance Parrish
30. Elston Howard
31. Tommy Leach
32. Orel Hershiser
33. Burleigh Grimes
34. Chuck Finley
35. Bus Clarkson
36. Bob Elliott
37. Ron Cey
38. Marvin Williams
39. Dave Concepcion
40. Tony Fernandez
41. Harry Hooper
42. Luis Tiant
43. Buzz Arlett
44. Don Mattingly
45. Orlando Cepeda
46. Gil Hodges
47. Reggie Smith
48. Jack Clark
49. Jose Cruz
50. Willie Davis
51. Fielder Jones
52. Dick Redding
53. Rick Reuschel
54. Pie Traynor
55. Dennis Martinez
56. Jim Kaat
57. Gene Tenace
58. George Foster
59. Wally Berger
60. Fred Lynn
61. Vern Stephens
62. Dick Bartell
63. Ernie Lombardi
64. Toby Harrah
65. Lou Brock
66. Tony Phillips
67. Red Schoendienst
68. George Burns
69. Paul O'Neill
70. Bert Campaneris
71. Rabbit Maranville
72. Lave Cross
73. Cy Seymour
74. Ed Konetchy
75. Bobo Newsom

Summary of rating system: I now rely a lot of Dan R’s warp, which I like because of the relatively high replacement level compared to Win Shares and BP Warp (though I quote BP w3 below for ease of reference). I like Dan R’s peak salary estimator as well, my belief is that good rate stats show a player who would still be a star if they played in a higher level league. That’s important to me, if we formed a league with the 500 greatest players of all time at their peak, I want my HoM ballot to have the guys who aren’t stuck on the bench in that league. But I am not pure peak, I look at the sum over all years, rather than looking only at the top N years.

For pitchers I do an analysis based on K/W/HR rates vs. league norms, look at IP*(ERA+ - 80), and review Joe D’s analysis.

1) Raines--clearly qualified
2) Dick Lundy--With new MLEs I’m comfortable putting him at “Bobby Wallace” level.
3) Saberhagen1985-1994 are enough for me with 1337 K/352BB= 3.8K/W for 1917 IP. Top BP W3: 11.7, 10.2, 10.2, 8.7. Even 1999 is remarkable, 81K and only 11BB in 119 IP. There’s no doubt he was great, 2562 IP is enough bulk for me.
4) Tommy JohnA good pitcher every year from 1965 to 1980 except the year out, with 1979 a very good peak year (8.4 BP W3). I figure by 1980 he was getting to into candidate territory, then went on to win 74 more games. 4710 IP is a lot, at ERA+ of 111.
5) John McGraw--Ultra-dominant player when healthy. Set the quality of league anywhere you want, and McGraw is starting and a star when healthy.
6) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942, and 1946 wasn’t a good one for him as well. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
7) Cone--1988-1998 he was 163- 87. Best year might have been 1991 when he went 14-14 but 241K to 73BB in 232 IP, with only 13 HR allowed.
8) Reggie Smith--I’m convinced now. Compare to Wynn. Add some Japan credit too.
9) Campaneris--great non-SB baserunning.
10) Concepcion--Grade A+ shortstop and could hit some too. Weak hitting at the beginning and end, but above average during prime 1973-1982. Warp3 prime: 10.7, 10.2, 10.2, 9.7, 8.8, 8.7, 8.3, 8.0. Note that Win Shares is conservative in assigning fielding credit to the great fielders. PHoM 1994.
11) GoodenFor a period of time, a serious candidate for the greatest pitcher ever. From August 11, 1984, to May 6, 1986: 37-5, 1.40 ERA, 412 Ks and 90 walks in 404.6 innings. 201-142 translated BP career record. 1984-1991 actual record was 132-53, K/W ratio 3:1 while striking out 8/9IP. 62-59 thereafter, like Saberhagen there is no doubt that he was a great pitcher, 2800 IP is enough bulk for me.
12) Reuschel--Joe D is on to something here, the bad defense behind him is not his fault.
13) Quinn--Joe D makes the case for him also, it’s not an accident that he was able to pitch in the majors to age 49. 114 ERA+ for almost 4000 IP, plus PCL credit, plus leverage credit…
14) NewcombeKorean War and integration issues, decided to give him the benefit of the doubt.
15) Elston HowardIntegration, stuck behind Yogi, was obviously a great player when given a chance.

Redding #31.

Walters—walked more than he struck out, I’m not convinced that the hitting and fielding provide enough runs to outweigh that
to get him in the HoM.

Leach--Great fielder at both 3B and CF. Historically a unique player, if only he hit a little better. Or had stayed at 3B.

Bob Johnson--#18. WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.

Puckett—Not close. Would need to channel the 1988 or 1992 Puckett for about 3 more years to make it. If I give him the benefit of the doubt I have to put Ross Youngs in too.

I’m a peak voter, though an amazing prime or really strong career will overwhelm my peak preferences in my (revamped) system. I lean on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

I did a Dick Lundy–inspired trip through my middle infielders this time around, and while I remain off the Lundy bandwagon (I agree that with the new MLEs he’s much like Bobby Wallace and Joe Sewell…neither of whom is in my pHOM), I did shuffle a couple of names around based on the results (Doerr moved up, Whitaker down--that sums up the bulk of it).

pHOM: Raines, Newcombe, Cone

2008 ballot:

1. Tim Raines (pHOM 2008). I’m just echoing everyone else when I say he’s criminally underrated; even if WS does overrate him a bit, he’s still clearly head-and-shoulders above the remaining backlog for me. At his peak, a truly fearsome player, and he had an awful lot of value outside that high peak as well.

2. Bret Saberhagen (pHOM 2005). A greater peak than I’d realized, and it shows up by multiple measures—not just PRAA. That, plus a better prime than Dean’s (in other words, he has one), puts him here.

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). A really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough (and high enough for that brief period) for me.

4. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. Great peak on both offense and defense.

5. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak. I still prefer him slightly to Bresnahan, though I admit there’s a certain amount of “what if?” going on there.

6. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but then again, he was in the mix with some of the all-time greats. And his peak was very strong.

7. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Yes, he dominated partially because of his stadium, but I can’t see why I should penalize him for that. With minor-league credit—which I think he deserves—he’s a pretty easy choice.

8. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). He wasn't Carlton/Niekro/Perry/Jenkins—too inconsistent, not good enough long enough—but he packed enough brilliance into several years.

9. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Very short peak, but five great years, especially at 3B, are enough for me.

10. Don Newcombe (pHOM 2008). When sunnyday and DanR agree on something, I’m forced to pay attention. ;) Seriously, while he doesn’t seem at first to have the peak I usually look for—which has been what’s always held him back for me—the era and the various factors blocking his career are likely responsible for most of that lack.

11. Ken Singleton (pHOM 1997). Another of the “I had no idea he was this good at the time” gang—I think he was the player most felt Jim Rice was back then. In my system, judged only on offense, Singleton matches up well with Clemente and is better than Stargell.

12. John McGraw (pHOM 1996). Another tiny peak, but it seems good enough to outstrip the recent 3B glut to me (and at this position, it’s not like the years outside the peak are useless).

13. Johnny Pesky (pHOM 1997). With war credit for both, I prefer his peak/prime to Rizzuto’s, and I prefer them both by a great margin over the other backlog SS candidates.

14. David Cone (pHOM 2008). For once, a positive surprise with one of my favorite players to root for when he played! With strike-year credit and postseason credit, he’s awfully similar to guys like Stieb, though he falls short of Saberhagen.

15. Phil Rizzuto (pHOM 2004). I’ve slowly being coming around on his defense being world-class as opposed to merely good…which brings him to my ballot. With this view of his fielding, he’s very similar to Pesky.

16-20: Belle (2006), Leach (2006), Doyle (1995), Redding (1975), Duffy (1930)
21-25: [Doerr], Cicotte (1972), Trout (1997), [Nettles], F. Howard, [Ashburn], Walters (1968), G. Burns
26-30: Clarkson, [Dw. Evans], McCormick, Bando, D. Murphy, Hahn
31-35: Parker, [Boyer], H. Smith, [Whitaker], Gomez (1987), [Dawson], Hiller, Dunlap
36-40: Viola, Puckett, Cepeda, Berger, Avila
41-45: L. Smith, Elliott, Mattingly, Shocker, Rucker
46-50: Sutter, P. Guerrero, Munson, Stephens, Bo. Bonds

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Smith. I just don’t see enough peak there. He’s a lot better than guys like Bob Johnson, IMO, but he’s not quite in my top 50, either.

•Redding. I like him, and he’s in my pHOM, but there are still a bunch of other lost-cause pitchers I like better. Can’t quite seem to get back on my ballot; he’s at #19.

•Walters. He’s in my pHOM, but got demoted some years back for not being demonstrably better than other not-yet-pHOMed guys like Stieb. He’s not far back, though, at #24.

•Leach. Another guy who’s been creeping up of late, though (again) not quite my favorite at his position(s). At #17, he recently made my pHOM and should be on the ballot before too long.

•Johnson. Right in the heart of the Hall of Very Good, and certainly underrated historically, but not close to my ballot, or even to my top 50—nowhere near enough peak or prime.

•Puckett. Not enough peak/prime to get in as an outfielder—even a CF—unless you play the what-if-no-eye-injury game, and if I’m not doing that for Joss or Mattingly, I’m not doing it for Puckett. He’s at #37.

•Chuck Finley. Not too far behind Early Wynn and Eppa Rixey in my system, but I’m not too high on either of those two. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Knoblauch. Better than I expected (I guess I suffered through too many bad throws to first when he was declining), but not quite Whitaker or Avila, and that puts him outside my top 50--just not by as much as I thought he’d be.

•Justice, Anderson, Nen, and the rest are well behind those last two.

2008 Ballot- Thanks for the memories and good luck to all of us here on out
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time with a strong preference for players who had good in-season durability. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do. I think it also may be time to go a little more into my baseball philosophy, which may help in clarifying my rankings. I don't believe in the single stat theory of baseball, meaning I don't use WS or WARP in my rankings. Essentially, I follow this as I think a large percentage of what contributes to baseball is not counted. Well, no one has ever counted them as statistics as far as I've ever heard. This includes things like manager's prerogative, and actions that would require a historical pbp analysis currently unavailable. I search for what I consider "total ballplayers", guys who can do it all. I believe in positional representation and abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc... A team cannot win without a 2B, nor without someone in LF. When I look at a player's career, I try to ask myself how I would feel about him as his manager - would his presence require special tactics to protect him, or is he completely reliable. I hope it can be seen by my rankings that the "reliable" players generally rise above the ones with clear holes in their games. There are always exceptions, but this is what I have. The stats I look at to get here tend to be traditional and rate, both offensive and defensive. Contemporary opinion also helps.

This year's notes. Tim Raines takes the top spot. Chuck Finley looks like a modern day equivalent (in value terms) to Bucky Walters. I've never been a supporter of Bucky Walters, and this comparison will not change that. Robb Nen reminds me of Tom Henke, but not quite as good. And not quite in my top 100. David Justice is Buck Freeman 100 years later.Chuck Knoblauch = George Scales in a shorter career (not as confident in that comparison, but we`re on a theme roll here.) Subject to change - Dick Lundy and David Cone take my last two PHOM spots. I also am giving an uppoer backlog pitcher bump to end things off. We really undervalued them throughout.

1)Tim Raines - a stark reminder about how a mediocre and lengthy end to an otherwise sterling career can change one`s legacy. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. The epitomy of reliability. (PHOM)
3)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. A summary of a reevaluation of some of our backlog pitchers in my high backlog (Bridges, Gomez, Redding, Walters) Of those four, the white guys were all regulars for 10-11 seasons. Bucky and Lefty both had immense peaks, but I think that Lefty's non-peak years hold up better than Bucky's. Also, Lefty does not need any war discount. Dick Redding seems more similar to Walters in that his non-peak was not so impressive. His peak was still enough to leave in him solid backlog country. (I even put him in my PHOM back when I joined the project.) Tommy Bridges wins out. He had much greater consistency. He is to pitchers what Bob Johnson was to hitters, but more of a winner. We have been especially splintered as to the backlog pitchers, and I urge everyone to give Tommy Bridges a closer look. (PHOM)
4)Ben Taylor - Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
5)Kirby Puckett - I have it mentioned that some HOM voters consider Puckett to be a mistake of the BBWAA. I see where that sentiment may be emanating from, but I do beleive that his election was earned A wonderful ballplayer. (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the one of the best available pitchers in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Bus Clarkson - A new defensive readjustment moves to the cusp. (PHOM)
8)Dale Murphy - A player that my system loves. At his best he dominated. That refers to the years between 1979-1988. That's a 10 year prime with a very high peak. Also demonstrated very good fielding ability. Could easily move up my ballot. (PHOM)
9)David Cone - I prefer his longer prime to Redding and Saberhagen, and he beats at least Sabes by durability as well. (PHOM)
10)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
11)Dick Lundy - I still prefer the solid fielder who can hit very well to the great fielder with the average bat. Even this late in the game, there's room for a surprise. (PHOM)
12)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
13)Bob Johnson - I don't know why it took me this long. Great all-round LF. Very durable. (PHOM)
14)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place. I now think his teens peak was all he needed. (PHOM)
15)Bret Saberhagen - Just a little bit more valuable, on the whole, than Dizzy Dean - slightly lower peak, but a longer prime.

16)Tony Oliva - Career not as short as I thought. Had solid durability for the seasons he was around for. A world class hitter. (PHOM)
17)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today. (PHOM)
18)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
19)Orlando Cepeda - Going with my numbers. I support him, but the strength of many of the new guys as well as the recently dregded up arguments for others drops him off ballot.(PHOM)
20)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves back up a bit as the clouds pass and I see much to compare between R. Smith and J. Wynn. Rechecked the head to heaad between Smith and Jack Clark and I must admit that Smith is just a smidge better. Feasibly better than Al Oliver as well. One reader pointed out how his games per season compared with Tony Oliva's. I prefer looking at PA's. Oliva's prime consisted of 11 seasons. (64-71 +73-75). In that time, he averaged 609 PA/season. Reggie Smith's prime was 67-78. In that time he averaged 579 PA/season. His career OPS+ may have been brought up by part time play. Valuable, but I am not concerned with it. All that said and done, he will probably claim one of the final spots of my PHOM in these last few elections.
21)Al Oliver - I was surprised by the similarities between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Very convincing peak and a glove that scores quite well. Career length is nice as well.
((21a)Andre Dawson))
22)Albert Belle - Fits in rather nicely with the next two on this list.
23)Jack Clark - Marvelous hitter who had his uses in the field as well.
24)Jim Rice - This is, more or less, where the in-out line can be found for the slightly bigger hall that I dream of.
25)Wally Berger - super-underrated
26)Don Mattingly - In the interest of my belief in a big hall for Cooperstown, I suppport Mattingly's induction. That said, for this project, he looks to be just the wrong side of the door.
27)Dan Quisenberry - I suppose I've decided that I value peak in a reliever over career totals. Mind you, if the guy has both...well, we'll see what happens with Goose in a few years.
28)Lee Smith - He didn't have the stellar peak of the two closers around him, but his prime outlasted them both. And his peak is really not that far below Sutter's, at least.
29)Bruce Sutter - Very curious to see if anyone else has him as their highest ranked reliever right now. Shorter career than the others, but when he was at his best, he was the best. That works for me.
30)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
((30a)Jimmy Wynn))
31)Ron Guidry - I love a dominant pitcher. I don't think it's necessarily correct to view pitchers and hitters in the same light and I value a strong peak (I mean really strong) for pitchers more than for hitters (prefer a steady, all round type there). Similar to, but not quite the equal of, Lefty Gomez, one of my inner circle of best friends.
32)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
33)Mickey Welch
((33a)Jim Bunning))
((33b)Billy Pierce))
((33c)Graig Nettles))
34)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled reliever system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
35)Lance Parrish - Solid all round catcher. Proud member of the HoVG. Not quite the HOM though.
36)Ron Cey - I remember his late Topps cards. Lots of very small print on the back. He compares favourably to the other eligible 3Bs. I'd still take Rosen's monster peak over his steady production, but it's close.
37)Tony Fernandez - Mr. Blue Jay
38)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
((38a)Joe Gordon))
((38b)Dobie Moore))
39)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((39a)Cupid Childs))
40)Fred Dunlap - Very short career. Very good, too.
((40a)Rollie Fingers))
41)Chuck Finley - I remember being surpirsed when he didn`t come back for another season. I wonder what one more season of slightly above average performance would have done to his final ranking.
42)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
43)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
44)Tommy John - I think I like his overall picture just a smidgen more than Sutton's.
((44a)Don Sutton))
45)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
46)Tony Perez - I wasn't giving him the extra glove credit he earned through 5 seasons as the Reds' 3B. Still, no peak. As far as 1B go, I have Cepeda up higher because of his very nice peak and his not too short career as a regular. Ben Taylor suffers from a lack of documented stats. The stats there show that he could flat out mash the ball by dead-ball standards. Contemporaries say his glove was the best they had ever seen at 1B. Very apt, in this year of the Hernandez discussion. How much as a scoop worth? I think it's worth alot. I maintain that while a below average defensive 1B can cause little harm, an above average glove at 1B will provide a hefty bonus to the team lucky enough to employ one.
47)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace. And better than Bresnahan given credit.
48)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
49)Phil Rizzuto
50)Cecil Travis - A very worthy extra credit case.
((50a)Jake Beckley))
51)Jimmy Ryan
52)Fred Lynn - Very similar to Duffy and Roush. Loses a lot of ground due to in-season durability concerns for an otherwise very strong candidate. Should be appealing to Browning/Chance/McGraw supporters who overlook that sort of thing.
((52a)Charlie Keller))
53)Cy Williams
54)Brett Butler - Some are calling him an equivalent to Kirby. I'm not seeing it. At Kirby's best, he was the best. At Butler's best, he was very good. My system will always take the guy who was the best for a stretch.
55)Amos Otis - The end of the centrefield run.
56)Dolf Camilli
57)Fielder Jones - I was missing on him a bit. A very apt first name. Solid bat as well.
((57a)Roger Bresnahan))
((57b)Pete Browning))
58)Steve Garvey - Something between Perez and McCormick. Nice size career, defensive value, could hit a bit - nothing overwhelming though.
59)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake. Not that he wasn;t a mistake, but he was not the worst one made.
60)George Kell
61)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
62)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
63)Sal Bando
64)Buddy Bell - Fits in rather nicely in this run of HOVG 3B.
65)Pie Traynor
66)Ed Williamson - I was missing a little something here.
67)Johnny Evers
68)Elston Howard
69)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
70)Bill Mazeroski
71)Tony Lazerri - Similar value to Maz. Accrued very differently.
72)Tommy Leach - With his recent rise in the standings, I took another look at him for our penultimate election. I can see arguments that would have him around or even above someone like Brett Butler, or maybe even a bit more, but that would only mean 20-30 ballot spopts for me, and not significant at this stage. Not being convinced either way, he stays down here. Fine player, but not HOM quality.
73)Vic Willis - A reexamination of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
74)Thurmon Munson - see below.
75)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
76)Johnny Pesky
77)Hippo Vaughn
78)Tom Henke - Not a long career, but the Terminator was one of the best closers in the game at his peak.
79)George Kell - Had him a bit too high earlier.
80)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
81)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
82)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
83)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
84)Rocky Colavito
85)Chuck Klein - Drops like a rock. Great hitter Not much else. What separates him from Cravath. Not sure at the moment, really. I guess Cravath has those extra credit intangibles.
86)Denny Lyons
87)John McGraw - Hurt alot by my readjustment - no durability. Tsk, tsk.
88)George Van Haltren - Van Haltren is the big loser on the CF sweepstakes due to his poor fielding by my own accounts.
89)Rabbit Maranville

I abhor the thought process that says that relievers were all failed starters and 2B are all failed SS, etc...

How many major leaguers are drafted/come up as relievers or 2B? Very, very few. The *vast* majority are drafted as starters and shortstops and converted at some point along the way, once it becomes clear they can't hold up to the demands of the more difficult role. Of course every team needs a 2B and a bullpen, but the fact that most 2B are indeed failed SS and most RP are indeed failed SP does help to provide an intuitive explanation for why replacement level for shortstops and starters (as measured by the Freely Available Talent level) is *so* much lower than it is for second basemen and relievers.

Dan - Maybe I should have placed the word in italics to make my point clearer, but I guess I was hoping the statement would have been understood as is. The word is "failed." True - a good number of MLB 2B were drafted as SSs. A large number of releif pitchers were drafted as started, or even position players. But the fact that they were moved does not mean they were failed. It would be impossible to truly quantify, but many of those moves were based on the needs of the organization and a snapshot impression. Also, does the fact that Chase Utley was, in fact, drafted as a 2B, and has a reputation as being one of the better 2B in the league, place some doubt on your claim?

Utley is a rare bird--he actually played *third* base full time in AAA in 2002. Regardless, just look at the college/low minor league stats of most MLB 2B, you'll see a ton of SS time. And given the scarcity of SS at the big league level--if you develop an "extra" SS, you can trade him for just about anything--it seems pretty clear to me that the reason for the move in the vast majority of cases is that their fielding (especially the arm) isn't strong enough to handle the game's toughest position.

Dan is correct. Dmitri Young was a SHORT STOP in the low minors, just for example. Same thing goes for outfielders - most LF and RF are 'failed' CF'ers, or sometimes 'failed' 3Bmen. Many 1Bmen are 'failed' 3B or LFers or RFers...

And many baseball sabermetricians are.... ;-)

Wow. It’s been a whole lotta fun, but I’m done. Well, I will peek at the results next Tuesday, but that’s about it. Truth be told, while I’ve learned a whole bunch here, toward the end of this project I sometimes didn’t like what this did to me; I occasionally went more to a passionate ‘I-want-my-guy-in’ mode instead of performing objective analysis, speaking before I finished thinking, which I’ve always found off-putting when I saw it in others. Such is the nature of voting projects I guess. Hopefully I’ll get back to more of the latter in days ahead.

OK, end of reflection, onto the ballot.

No wait, first many huzzahs hurrahs and attaboys for the grunt workers here; ballot counters, organizers, etc. It takes menial tasks being done well to make any project work. This project had lots of those, and they were usually done well.

OK, the ballot, really.

--------2008---------
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. Small credit for pitcher “peak”, none for hitters. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

Ballot includes longer-than-normal disclosures, encompassing my entire top 60, since this is the finale.
.
1- Tim Raines {new}
Clearly a great player. I hope the HoF ain’t blind.
2- John McGraw (4) [15]
Dominant 9 year prime. Provided huge advantage over every other MLB team at third base. Add in our shortage of 1890s infielders & shortage of pre-WWII 3Bmen, and he’s clearly “in” for me.
3- Reggie Smith (5) [5]
Not quite the peak rate and durability for big-season voters, not long enough career for career voters. But overall a GREAT player. Helped every team he joined, and they hurt when he left.
4- Bill Monroe (6) [41]
Dominant in his day. Newest Cuban league numbers help his cause.
5- Bucky Walters (7) [7]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit real well too.
6- George Van Haltren (8) [18]
Spent three years primarily as a pitcher. And is still 33rd all-time in runs scored. Almost 400 career Win Shares if you adjust to a 162-game schedule.
7- Frank Chance (9) [72]
A great player on great teams. As good a hitter as Gavy Cravath..
8- Bob Johnson (10) [9]
Very solid dozen year stretch. One very good MinorLg year of credit also. RCAP sez he belongs, and RCAP rulz!
9- Bob Elliot (11) [36]
The 1947 MVP. Like I knew that already.
10- Luis Tiant (12) [13]
Few unearned runs allowed. Small bonuses for post-season wins. Small discount for arriving in those luvly-to-pitch 60s.
11- Kirrrbeeeee Puckett (off) [10]
Great prime, post-season hero, but some warts too.
12- Dick Redding (13) [6]
Great pitcher according to the anecdotes. Less great by MLEs. I split the difference.
13- Burleigh Grimes (14) [24]
I’m (finally) Bully for Burleigh!
14- Ed Williamson (15) [47]
After a long hiatus, Ed resurfaces.
15- Rick Reuschel (off) [29]

My fuzzy PHoM line ends after place #13; there that many men who are in the HoM that I would prefer to be smitten and replaced by the worthies above; they are, in order of who ought to be cast off of the island first:

H Jennings, P Browning, R Faber, D Moore, E Roush, A Oms, Sisler, Allen, Kiner, Waddell, Fox, Stieb, C Jones.

But the differences between many of them and the lower guys on my ballot are almost immeasurable. I’m happy to report that I don’t think we’ve made any true ‘mistakes’; the guys I don’t support are the peak-only types which by other preferences are very deserving.

Required top-10 disclosures: Sabes #18, Leach #37.

Newbie: Chuck Finley not quite gonna cut it.

16 L Brock – I value post-season (and pennant-winning) performance more than others do. In the famous words of Maxwell Smart, Lou missed my last ballot by THAT much.
17 P Rizzuto
18 B Saberhagen closest comps are Newcombe and Reuschel. Retired earlier than some other not-yet-eligibles.
19 D Mattingly
20 E Howard
21 D DiMaggio
22 D Concepcion
23 T Fernandez
24 D Newcombe
25 B Clarkson
26 T Bridges
27 B Bonds
28 Dick Lundy
29 Lee Smith
30-34 T Perez, N Cash, P Traynor, U Shocker, O Cepeda
35-39 Campaneris, D Dean, T Leach, W Schang, B Bell
40-44 R Cey, T Munson, L Aparicio, M Welch, D Bancroft
45-49 S Bando, B Taylor, C Mays, R Maranville, E Lombardi
50-54 T John, L Easter, L Doyle, J Fregosi, H Duffy
55-59 G Cravath, B Sutter, K Singleton, R Staub, J Pesky

Donelson - Reuschel?

2008

Wow! To think that 5 years of life have flitted by while I sat at this computer and made lists of baseball players. Yikes.

Let me just echo best wishes of the “season”—interpret that as you wish—to all my HoMie buddies. I mean, jeez, I’ve had cats and dogs that didn’t live for 5 years. Some of my all-time favorite TV shows barely lasted as long. My marriage has lasted 6X as long, but then I touched 'em all a lot more.

Again, I’m mostly a peak/prime Win Shares voter though I look at a lot of information—especially my own annual MVP ballot and all-star selections, OPS+ and ERA+, HoFS, HoFM, ink, etc.—in trying to correctly interpret the numbers. Lately I’ve been looked at WS above the position median.

2008 PHoM—Raines, Trammell, Joe Sewell

* PHoM/not HoM so far 21st century elections—Puckett, Mattingly, Munson, Dean, Pesky, Rosen, Duffy, Walters, Belle

HoM/not PHoM 21st century elections—Whitaker, Randolph, Stieb, Bresnahan, Oms, Nettles

(1a. Alan Trammell [10a-13a-15a], PHoM 2008)—I had misunderestimated him, +147.5 WS over position medians, more than 2X Davey Concepcion, e.g.)

1. Tim Raines (new, PHoM 2008)—a much closer call than I had anticipated. +124 WS over the position medians, Albert Belle is the next OF at +108

2. Ed Williamson (4-2-3, PHoM 1924)—great glove, spent 2 years at SS; led the league in games played 4 times; good bat, good enough to take unfair advantage of the short LF porch for bunches of ground-rule 2B when hitting it into the stands was a ground-rule 2B, and when they decided to call them HR, well, I don’t see how hitting it out there hurt his team, +109.5 WS over position medians

3. Dick Lundy (7-7-20, PHoM 2006)—new MLEs make him about as ballot-worthy as Ozzie and Trammell, clearly better than Sewell and Reese, +130.5 WS over position medians, though of course that is an MLE

4. Bucky Walters (13-12-45, PHoM 2006)—the big mover in my pitcher re-eval at +47 WS versus the median “ace” AFTER discounting his WWII years

5. Kirby Puckett (5-13-15, PHoM 2001)—+107 WS versus the median CF compared to Dale Murphy at +75.5 or Reggie Smith at +71; another classic case of “so over-rated, he’s now under-rated”

6. Dizzy Dean (6-1-2, PHoM 2002)—for a peak voter, the one big oversight of the HoM project to date; even with a short prime (6 years), the +39 WS above the “median ace” is among the best available

7. Larry Doyle (9-8-9, PHoM 1975)—at his best, a deserving NL MVP on a pennant-winning team; +116 WS over the position median

8. Al Rosen (14-11-12, PHoM 2005)—the #1 WS peak of anybody in my 30 hitters, and +11 WS per year versus position median; basically, Albert Belle with a glove

9. Don Newcombe (10-4-6, PHoM 1997)—missed more opportunities than anybody—NgL, integration, WWII—coulda been Robin Roberts

10. Albert Belle (8-6-new, PHoM 2006)—WS peak beyond question at 37-34-34-31 (with 1994 and 1995 adjusted appropriately), +108 WS versus position medians

11. Gavvy Cravath (18-17-17, PHoM 1995)—moves up, +13 WS per year versus the position median, ties for the best among 20C players; yes, against weak competition and for a short period of time, but still that is a monstrous advantage

12. Elston Howard (11-3-5, PHoM 1994)—after Newk, missed more opportunities than anybody, Newk coulda been Robin Roberts, for Howard the comp is somewhere between Freehan and Cochrane, +9.5 WS per year versus position median though for a short time, it’s true

13. Tommy Bond (12-9-8, PHoM 1929)—he’s baaaack; pretty much the all-time WS peak monster even after I give his defenses half his credit

14. Tommy Leach (21-18-16, PHoM 1998)—what a valuable guy to have around, a rich man’s Roger Bresnahan, +13 WS per year and +102 total WS over position median though that is against a fairly weak cohort, it’s true

(13a. Joe Sewell [29a-32a-32a]—a big winner in the WS over median project, +117 WS versus his position medians, though it was against a pretty weak cohort)

15. John McGraw (39-37-35)

No 3rd PHoM designation yet—Sewell, McGraw, Fred Dunlap, Wes Ferrell and Dale Murphy demand further eval for the final slot

Drop-Outs

19. Johnny Pesky (15-10-11, PHoM 2004)--+74 versus the toughest cohort in ML history, still it’s just 74 wins

HoVVG

(15a. Wes Ferrell [22a-16a-30a])
16. Dale Murphy (16-16-23)--+84 WS versus position medians
17. Fred Dunlap (HM-44-42)--+94 WS
18. Dick Redding (20-19-18, PHoM 1971)
(18a. Quincy Trouppe [40a-38a-36b])--+108.5 (MLE)
19. Johnny Pesky (15-10-11, PHoM 2004)--+74
20. Ken Singleton (22-21-22)--+91

21. Frank Howard (36-32-30, PHoM 1987)--+98
22. Phil Rizzuto (19-15-4, PHoM 1995)--+62
23. Vern Stephens (23-20-19)--+82
(23a. Jim Bunning [241-21a-46a])
(23a. Dave Stieb [27a-29a-NR])
24. Hugh Duffy (17-14-13, PHoM 2005)--+88.5
(24a. Roger Bresnahan [26b-29b-30b])--+57
25. Bret Saberhagen (27-27-NR)
26. Thurman Munson (NR-NR-27, PHoM 2002)--+85

HoVG

27. Dan Quisenberry (25-24-26)
28. Burleigh Grimes (33-30-50)
29. Wilbur Cooper (30-NR-NR)
(29a. Lou Whitaker [39a-37a-36a])--+100
30. Hack Wilson (31-31-25)

31. Orel Hershiser (37-NR-new)
32. Bill Monroe (32-33-31)
33. Dave Concepcion (28-28-NR)--+71.5
35. Sal Bando (34-34-34)
(35a. Jimmy Sheckard [19a-19a-19a])--+64
36. Reggie Smith (24-25-32, PHoM 1988)--+71
37. Orlando Cepeda (49-43-43, PHoM 1987)--+104
(37a. Ken Boyer [37a-34a-32b])--+91
38. Pie Traynor (38-35-33)
39. Bob Elliott (NR-NR-NR)--+81
(39a. Dewey Evans [43a-40a-40a])--+97.5
40. Bus Clarkson (NR-NR-NR)

41. Don Mattingly (43-40-29, PHoM 2001)--+79.5
42. Chuck Klein (40-38-36)
43. Bobby Avila (HM-50-HM)--+56 with no MLE credit
44. Wally Berger (41-39-37)
45. Tony Perez (26-23-39)--+73
(45a. Early Wynn [NR-HM-46a])
46. Bruce Sutter (40-35-36)
47. Dave Bancroft (NR-HM-44)
48. David Cone (NR-HM-42)
49. Vic Willis (NR-48-22)
50. Luis Tiant (45-49-49)

Drops Out of Top 50

Dave Parker (29-29-21)--+71
Bob Johnson (46-46-46)--+47
Jim Rice (47-42-38)--+82
Addie Joss (50-26-14, PHoM 1967)

Honorable Mention

Jake Beckley (NR)--+87
Norm Cash (NR)--+84
Addie Joss (50-26-14, PHoM 1967)
(Biz Mackey [NR-HM-NR])--+81
Jim McCormick (NR)
Dave Parker (29-29-21)
Lance Parrish (NR)--+66
Jim Rice (47-42-38)
Hilton Smith (HM-47-47)
George Van Haltren (NR)--+74.5

Oops--scratch Joe Sewell PHoM, haven't made that determination yet.

The Pesky comment should say, still it's just 74 WS. 74 wins of course would be 222 WS. And it should continue, value is value.

TomH, we all wanted our guy in. Don't worry about it.

Donelson - Reuschel?

Was he a required disclosure and I missed it? (Maybe you're just asking.) Anyway: he's just outside my top 50. I buy that he was pitching in a tough era, and adjust somewhat, but I can't quite overcome both the bare-bones stats--which make him as underrated but not THAT underrated--and the general perception of the fellow at the time to make the truly vast adjustment it would take to get him much higher, let alone on my ballot.

Dan being on the bandwagon with Joe does add some credence, perhaps enough that Reuschel should really be just inside my top 50. But I tend to take these things conservatively, and right now a vote for Reuschel would mean I'm just putting all my faith in Dan's and Joe's systems, with both of which I've had some disagreements. (Joe's is less peaky than I'd like, and while I've started to slide in his direction more of late, Dan's SDs put a little more faith in the market and the collective wisdom of "baseball people" than I find convincing.)

I'll keep looking at Reuschel, though (lord knows I'll have time now!). Certainly, when more than one of the most discerning and analytical voters come to agreement on a less-regarded candidate, one has to take notice (as I did with Newk recently, finally).

I can understand the reluctance of peak voters to support Reuschel. One interesting element about his big 1977 season was the course of the Cubs' season. The Cubs were tied for first place as late as August 6. By September 2, they were 10.5 games out. Reuschel pitched brilliantly until August 6 and not as well in September or October. He went 1-4 with a 3.51 in September after the Cubs were out of it. His 158 ERA+ that year arguably sells him a little short when one accounts for season leverage. It is still hard to argue that his peak is close to that of Saberhagen, Tiant et. al.

Saberhagen is in Stieb and Cicotte territory for me. Not really close to my ballot at all. Reggie Smith, Indian
Bob and Puckett are all grouped relatively close together in the 40's or so on my ballot. Cannonball is not in my
consideration set. Leach is well below Reggie Smith and Puckett, and is practically tied with Saberhagen.

1. Gavy Cravath - did he take advantage of his park. Absolutely. He did it better than anyone else did and I am
not going to penalize him for that.

2. Lee Smith - yep, hate me if you will, but I am a firm believer in the reliever. They deserve a spot IMO.

3. Bucky Walters - odd player for me to lake, but has just enough career balanced with just enough peak to make a
strong mark on my ballot.

4. Don Newcombe - if you give him any NeL or military credit at all, I don't see how you can ignore him

5. Bus Clarkson - I am willing to speculate he was better than Vern Stephens, and I really like Vern

6. Bruce Sutter - see Smith

7. Vern Stephens - A perennial MVP shortstop? that'll get my vote

8. Elston Howard - I really missed the boat on him earlier, much like Newcombe, if you give him proper credit for
time he should've been a regular MLB catcher, you can't ignore him.

9. Bobby Veach - always suprised to have him on my ballot, but he has enough career value to make it

10. Jack Quinn - a very early reliever, a very long career, a year missed for PCL play that I'll count, and thanks
to Joe for brining Quinn's value to light for me.

11. Ernie Lombardi - I understand not having a landslide of support, but this little of support does surpise me some

12. Johnny Pesky - it takes a little imagination to get him this high, but it works for me

13. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

14. Lefty Gomez - career with peak, more consistent than Saberhagen (and I am a lifelong Royals fan)

15. Tim Raines - clearly HOM, HOF, and PHOM material, everyone else above him on my ballot is just more qualified in

my opinion. WAY more qualified than Brock.

Cecil Travis
Rocky Colavito
Hugh Duffy
Hack Wilson
Thurman Munson

Schafer, can you explain what methodology you're using to rank players, and more importantly, why you 've chosen the specific order? Your comments aren't very illuminating.

Um, yeah, a #15 vote for Raines DEFINITELY requires some SERIOUS explanation. I mean...that's beyond Yestian.

I have to say that I'm also puzzled by Adam's ballot (which is unusual regarding him, BTW) and hope that he could elaborate further on Raines' position.

Hey, if you let karl's ballot go by, no fair pickin' on this one ;-)

Hey, if you let karl's ballot go by, no fair pickin' on this one ;-)

Heh. Well, karlmagnus and yest have a long history of eccentric ballots, so nobody gets surprised when they submit a new one anymore. But when was the last time anyone questioned one of Adam's?

Bill Monroe (6) [41]
Dominant in his day. Newest Cuban league numbers help his cause.

Did I miss something here? What's the new info?

I used to have him on my ballot so I would have been pretty partial to bumping him back on the ballot.

Heh. Well, karlmagnus and yest have a long history of eccentric ballots, so nobody gets surprised when they submit a new one anymore. But when was the last time anyone questioned one of Adam's?

The difference b/w the karlmangus/yest-type ballot and Schafer's is that the former explain their methodology. I may not agree with yest, but I acknowledge that if, in fact, you were using arcana like career H or Field% to rank players, you'd get results that look like yest's. And it's his prerogative to rank players by whatever system he believes best reflects "Merit".

In this case, I have no idea how Schafer is ordering his ballot. Well, some idea; he explains why he has Clarkson over Stephens; but in general, his comments are stuff like, "you can't ignore him". No ####, really? Say I want to try to advocate Schafer on the merits of my pet candidate (Lundy). How can I try to persuade him? How do I know he gave him fair consideration?

If Schafer were to say, "I believe in big bats, and I don't weigh defense or positional value very heavily", then that's enough; I can understand when a Lundy/Bancroft type isn't on their ballot. But Schafer's ballot lacks even that basic courtesy.

Combine that with his minimal participation in the discussion threads, and his bewildering placement of Raines, and you've got enough there for a ballot challenge, I think, under the following text:
"Voters agree to take the voting seriously and to put in sufficient time
in researching the merits of the players and in filling out their
ballots. . . .

. . .The HoM ballot committee will review and tally all ballots. The
committee will identify any obviously unintelligent or especially
questionable votes (e.g., voting for Clay Bellinger). The committee
would then email the voter asking him to re-submit an adjusted ballot.
If the voter chooses not to do so, the ballot committee has the
authority to exclude the voter's entire ballot and/or the specific
unintelligent or questionable votes.

PHoM: Tim Raines, Dick Lundy and Bill Freehan

1. Tim Raines, LF (n/e). At the time (and as a kid), I always thought that "The Hawk" was a lot better than "The Raven" (even though I had a Tim Raines "Raven" glove). So I was surprised by how much Raines beats Dawson. It's not just the expected base-running (808 SB at 84% to 314 at 74%). It's also categories that you might think would come out in Dawson's favor like OPS+ (123 to 119 for Raines, though Dawson's final four seasons hurt him quite a bit) and unadjusted Runs Created (1626 to 1518).

2. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (4). PHoM- 1975. Great peak years between 1914 and 1919 including an estimated 2.14 ERA in 321 innings for Chicago in 1917 (according to i9). Lost a half a year in each of ’18 and ’19 due to military service. Even so, his career MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of inducted contemporaries like Coveleski, Faber and Rixey.

3. Dave Concepcion, SS (5). PHoM- 2005. No longer surprised that I've got Concepcion this high. No other eligible shortstop can match Concepcion for length and quality of prime. Excellent all-around shortstop for 8 out of 9 years from 1974 to 1982 (1980 was a down-year exception), 8 ½ if counting his 89 game season in 1973.

4. Don Newcombe, P (6). PHoM- 1987. Great years in ’50-’51 and ’55-’56 interrupted by military service in the Korean War. Missing a rise to his career due to integration and a tail due to his own personal issues (and no, he doesn’t get credit for the latter). With proper credit, he’s well over 200 wins for his career and though he isn’t in the same class as contemporaries like Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, he’s close enough to be worthy of induction.

5. Hugh Duffy, CF (7). PHoM- 1995. An excellent center-fielder who could have won Gold Gloves in ’93 and ’95, he was moved to left not because of poor play but because his team acquired Billy Hamilton. Also, an excellent offensive player for 8 seasons from 1890 to 1897. That’s not quite as valuable as Concepcion at SS or Newcombe at P, but its close.

6. Dick Lundy, SS (10). PHoM- 2008. From going out on a limb to not even leading the bandwagon: I like the long prime and the combination of bat and glove. Now we know why the Hall of Fame research showed that he walked more than initially credited- Philadelphia and Atlantic City box scores didn't include walks. Similar defense to Bancroft. Similar length of prime to Concepcion from 1919-24 and ’26-28. Best player on pennant winning teams for two different franchises. Missing that one big year like Rizzuto's 1950.

7. Tommy Bridges, P (8). PHoM- 2002. I love that long prime. Top ten in ERA+ 10 times in 12 seasons (Addie Joss is only other eligible 20th century with more than 7 and he has 8). Top ten in IP 5 straight seasons from 1933 to 1937 for a suitable peak. Would be higher with a bit more career value.

8. Bob Johnson, LF (9). PHoM- 2003. We’ve already got plenty of players from his era, but Bob Johnson’s prime is almost as good as Bridges’. Top ten in OPS+ 10 times in 12 seasons. Top ten in RC 9 times. 13 seasons with OPS+ over 125 (Jack Clark is only other eligible outfielder with more than 10 and he has 11). Similar to Bridges, would be even higher with a bit more career value.

9. Bret Saberhagen, P (11). PHoM- 2006. More of a peak/prime candidate than I would usually vote for but second only to Stieb for starting pitchers for his era (Eckersley beats them both as a starter/closer hybrid).

10. Lou Brock, LF (12). PHoM- 1985. I'm still a prime/career voter and Brock is one of the best career candidates on the ballot. 1622 career RC are best of any eligible player, not including Raines. Very consistent for 13 years from 1964 to 1976 with OPS+ always between 106 and 128 and RC/27 over 5.00 for all 13 seasons. Among the worst defensive outfielders but that doesn’t hurt him as much as it might as there are few eligible corner outfielder candidates with outstanding gloves.

11. Burleigh Grimes, P (13). PHoM- 1984. My ballot is starting to fill up with this kind of player- missing the huge peak but a long excellent prime for a decade or more which results in great career numbers. Still, Grimes did have two separate peaks: first in 1920-’21 when he was the best NL’s pitcher in 1921 (138 ERA+ in 302 IP, compared to Adams 144 in 160 and Doak 142 in 208), and a second in 1928-29 (1st in Wins, 2nd in WHIP in ’28; 1st in ERA+, 2nd in ERA in ’29).

12. Pie Traynor, 3B (14). The best third baseman available. Good career rate (.320/.362/.435 in 1941 games) and cumulative stats (2416 hits, 321 doubles, 1183 runs, 1273 RBI). Not much of a peak but a solid 11-year prime from 1923 to 1933.

13. Vic Willis, P (n/a). Keeps bouncing on and off the ballot- on it in '04 and '06, off in '05 and '07, back in '08. Had an incredible peak from 1899 to 1901-02. His league-leading ERA of 2.50 was 1.66 better than league average in ’99. He led his league in ERA+ in both ’99 and ’01, before posting a 2.20 ERA in 410 IP in ‘02. After that, he became more of a workhorse though his ’06 season stands out as a fourth excellent year. Someone else compared him to Redding. I agree- similar to Redding and to Saberhagen but I prefer the other two.

14. Phil Rizzuto, SS (n/a). Finally pulling the trigger on Rizzuto. With war credit, his length of prime is similar to Concepcion and Lundy though not quite as consistent and, outside of his huge year in '50, not quite as high.

15. Bill Monroe, 2B (15). Best available second baseman. Has both the offense (sorry, Red and Maz) and the defense (sorry, Doyle and Lazzeri), plus he was considered to be among the best at any position during his peak.

The Next Six:
16. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (PHoM)
17. Elston Howard, C
18. Jack Morris, P
19. Kirby Puckett, CF
20. Ben Taylor, 1B
21. Mickey Welch, P

New Eligibles:
Chuck Finley is a poor man's Cone, who is in turn a poor man's Saberhagen.
Brady Anderson was one of my favorite players at the time, a stalwart on my MLB Showdown team, and worthy of a mention- but not a vote.

Necessary Disclosures:
Reggie Smith: too much missing time and corner time for him to displace other players at his position such as the '90s duo of Duffy and Van Haltren and the '80s duo of Puckett and Murphy
Bucky Walters: not enough outside of his peak for me to vote for him, but wouldn't be overly upset if he was inducted
Tommy Leach: I always have trouble with hybrids like Leach, but he doesn't stand out enough as either a centerfielder or as a third baseman to make my ballot
Kirby Puckett: thought we'd elect him before he made my ballot, but he's slid backwards on the general ballot while moving up on mine to #19.

Well, karlmagnus and yest have a long history of eccentric ballots, so nobody gets surprised when they submit a new one anymore.

And if we picked on their ballots anytime something weird popped we wouldn't have time for anything else.

I'm ok being questioned about my rankings as long as it is cordial and not "attacking", it was bound to happen eventually.

How I rank, well, it's a huge mix of a whole bunch of things. One of the biggest things I look at is career value. "Junk" years per se (i.e. 1996-2002 Tim Raines, 1981-1986 Tony Perez, etc) aren't worth anything to me...except maybe in the rare exception of some catchers...I do value defense some, but admittedly not near as highly as most here. A strong offensive player admittedly gets a lot more weight than a strong defensive player. After initially not wanting to give any credit for time missed (PCL, war, MiL), I was convinced not only to give it, but to be fairly liberal with it, which I still am to this day. My ratings of relief pitchers are always going to be higher than practically anyone here. I feel quite strongly that they are deserving of their place and carry more value with me than probably anyone else. Players that took advantage of park factors do not get docked b/c of it. I did believe in pet candidates at one time (Mickey Welch) but decided that was blinding me, and do not do the whole "pet candidate" thing anymore. Also in the consideration factor for my rankings is how they ranked against their pears at the time. Players that dont' carry a lot of carrer value and are not consistent (Saberhagen) are not ones that will ever fair well on my ballot, to be meritous every other year, and then have it not add up to a whole lot just doesn't equal merit to me. I definately prefer someone who might have a tad bit less overall career value if they were able to put that effectiveness into a few onsecutiveyears (Bucky Walters). As it appears the biggest concern with my ballot is Tim Raines not being #1, well, sorry, but it just isn't going to happen. He could easily be as high as $6 as the rankings there are close, but that's as high as he could climb. If we had already elected everyone else on my ballot, sure he'd be #1. I'm not saying he's not deserving, b/c he is 100% deserving, he is 100% overrated, etc. I agree with everyone here that has him #1 on all of that. He is one of the greats, and he does deserve his spot in the HOF and HOM, I just feel the others I have ranked above him are just as deserving if not more so. There are other players we have inducted that I would definately have Raines ahead of. Back to some of the early ballots before my ballots started to differ some much, I am sure there are players I had in elect me spots that I would have Raines ahead of. It just boils down to it's so late in the election and the players I have felt are quite deserving just haven't received support elsewhere. To put it plain and simple, I don't have a method of ranking them simply by Win shares, or whatever other system most here prefer, mine is a big mixing pot of a lot of other things. My time is very limited, and I don't contribute as much as most, and don't have the time as most but I'm not the conversational type anyway. I prefer to be silent and listen.

OK, but Adam, you still haven't provided any actual *reason* for ranking Raines behind, say, Bobby Veach, who was also a bat-first corner outfielder. You say you weight hitting more than fielding; OK, Raines was an exceptional offensive player. You say you care about rank vs. peers and year-to-year consistency--Raines was indubitably the top player at his position in his league and an MVP candidate for 5 straight years running (83-87). Based on the criteria you've set forth, Raines should be an easy #1 for you--it's not like you said "I don't care about baserunning and I place a big premium on position scarcity," which might actually serve to justify a lower ranking (albeit not very well). Of course everyone's participation in the group is valuable, but I think you owe it to the voters who have dedicated tons of their time to the project to provide a bit more consistently applied logic and consideration.

2008

1. Tim Raines (-)--Surprisingly close to Leach with WARP1, but that’s an argument for Leach being underrated by our electorate as much as overrated by WARP.

2. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

3. John McGraw (5)--He’s got the best peak of the backlog, but still a shortage of career value. (1997)

4. Dale Murphy (6)--A great prime with a decent career value despite the decline phase. Bumped up this year as he’s got the best peak of the outfield glut, and the career value difference is minimal. (2000)

5. Bret Saberhagen (7)--He and Cone may be artifacts of timing, but they're still the best pitchers out there. (2006)

6. Bobby Bonds (8)--Fine all-around outfielder, with a good mix of peak and career. His peak in WARP and WS compares favorabley with Belle’s, and he’s got a decent edge in career (25 more WARP, 50 more WS). (1995)

7. Albert Belle (9)--Kiner makes sense, I still think Edgar Martinez was the MVP in ‘95, though.

8. David Cone (10)--Like Saberhagen, only a little less so.

9. Luis Tiant (11)--A fine all-around pitching candidate, good career value, solid peak, underrated. Lots of pitchers from his era, but that’s not a big concern for me.

(Graig Nettles)

10. Hugh Duffy (12)--High peak, medium length career, he’s dropping, but still a HOMer. (1964)

11. Don Newcombe (13)--Took another look at some pitchers a couple years ago, and Newcombe and Tanana were the biggest beneficiaries. War credit helps his case a lot.

12. Ken Singleton (14)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn. Looks like Bonds in Win Shares, but WARP doesn’t like him as much. (1991)

13. Dave Concepcion (15)--This Kool-Aid tastes good.

14. Frank Tanana (16)--A little less than Luis Tiant, a little more than Rick Reuschel. The seperation between these three is a matter of the compactness of the backlog more than anything else.

15. Tony Lazzeri (17)--Larry Doyle was on my ballot for years and is in my PHOM, but I can’t think of a reason not to prefer Lazzeri. Did he just get lost in the shuffle, or am I missing some obvious negative about him?

16. Ron Cey (18)
17. Larry Doyle (19)
(Rollie Fingers)
18. Wally Berger (20)
19. Dave Bancroft (70)
20. Tony Perez (21)
21. Rick Reuschel (22)
22. George Van Haltren (23)
23. Carl Mays (24)
24. Dick Lundy (96)
(Willie Randolph)
25. Mike Tiernan (25)
26. Cesar Cedeno (26)
27. George Foster (27)
28. Bobby Veach (28)
29. Dick Redding (29)
30. Ed Williamson (30)
(Dobie Moore)
31. Phil Rizzuto (31)
32. Norm Cash (32)
33. Rabbitt Maranville (75)
34. George Burns (58)
35. Reggie Smith (33)
36. Roy White (56)
37. Chuck Klein (57)
38. Bob Johnson (62)
39. Jimmy Ryan (59)
40. Don Mattingly (34)
41. Frank Howard (35)
(Jake Beckley)
42. Bob Elliot (36)
43. Rusty Staub (37)
(Roger Bresnahan)
44. Lee Smith (38)
45. Buddy Be