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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Monday, September 06, 2004
1934 Ballot
Cobb! Speaker! Collins! Williams! Lloyd!
Who will win the John Murphy Lottery?
Oh, BTW, Cristobal Torriente, Stan Coveleski and Ben Taylor have the huge misfortune of also having their first year of eligibility this “year.”
Returnees include Heinie Groh, George Van Haltren, Lip Pike, Jake Beckley, Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, Rube Waddell and Mickey Welch.
Hey! Let’s be careful out there (and Happy Labor Day!)
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: September 06, 2004 at 08:30 AM | 146 comment(s)
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I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.
I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).
1) Eddie Collins-2B (n/e): Extremely close between Collins and Cobb, but Cocky narrowly beats him, IMO, when taking into account the attrition levels for their respective positions, the many World Series that Cocky was involved in and Cobb's irascible personality (though Collins had his dark side as a GM). Dominated the 1910s at second and has the greatest career value at that position. Best major league second baseman for 1909, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, close in 1918, 1919 and 1920. Best AL second baseman for 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1925 and 1926.
2) Ty Cobb-CF/RF (n/e): I have to agree with Bill James about Cobb: I don't think he was the psychopath or even racist that he usually is portrayed. Much, much nicer guy than Anson, IMO. Yet, there were times... Best major league rightfielder for 1907, 1908 and 1909. Best major league centerfielder for 1910, 1911, 1915, 1916, 1918, 1919, 1920 and 1924.
3) Tris Speaker-CF (n/e): "The Grey Eagle" will probably make it this year because he has more WS and WARP3 over Collins (forgetting that it was easier as an outfielder to acquire them), but I can't say that I will be complaining. Best major league centerfielder for 1909, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923 and 1926.
4) John Henry Lloyd-SS/2B/1B (n/e): I don't think he was as good as Wagner, but El Cuchara for second greatest? I'd have to take him over Vaughan. Easily the greatest shortstop of the 1910s.
5) Smokey Joe Williams-P (n/e): I think he was slightly below Alexander. That means HoMer to me.
6) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.
Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.
7) Heinie Groh-3B (3): Best third baseman of his era not name Frank Baker. Terrific hitting (second best at his position in major league history to date) and fielding for his position. Like Childs, many years as the best at his position, yet still had a long career for someone at his position. He belongs. Best major league third baseman for 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920 and 1924.
8) Cristobal Torriente-CF/LF/RF/P (n/e): This guy was no where near being the best centerfielder of his time, but that tells you more about Cobb and Speaker than it does about Torriente. Great bat and glove.
9) Lip Pike-CF/RF/2B (4): Considered the fastest man of his time. Major star prior to the NA. Two things hold him back somewhat: durability and how good of a player he was at his position compared to his competition pre-NA (Pearce is not affected as much by the latter in my analysis, obviously). Best major league rightfielder for 1871 and 1873. Best major league centerfielder for 1874-1876.
10) Charley Jones-LF/CF (5): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).
11) Vic Willis-P (7): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.
12) Tom York-LF (8): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Sheckard?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than Sheckard was during his time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870s. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).
13) Jake Beckley-1B (9): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.
14) Mickey Welch-P (10): I have to admit that the 1880s had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.
15) Rube Waddell-P (11): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.
Van Haltren was knocked off when the new guys came on my ballot. Griffith and Jennings have also moved farther away than they were, obviously.
Of the newbies, Coveleski and Taylor have good shots of making my ballot in a few years.
prelim (and final) 1934 ballot from Tom "seriously delusional" Hanrahan:
This is a great 3 weeks to force myself to be busied with more important but less fun things in life. So, I submit this: please count it as my ballot. I certainly don't think my initial gut placement of Williams, Lloyd, Torriente, and Coveleski is necessarily correct, but for this project it won't matter much if I'm off a bit.
Now if I can only make myself stop reading everything on this board 3 times a day....
1-Ty Cobb (new)
Arguably the greatest CF ever
2-Tris Speaker (new)
Arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever, and greatest defensive player before WWII.
3-Eddie Collins (new)
Arguably the greatest second baseman ever
4-Pop Lloyd (new)
Somewhat plausibly the greatest shortstop ever
5-Smokey Joe Williams (new)
Arguably the greatest Negro League pitcher ever
6-Cristobal Torriente (new)
7-Clark Griffith (2)
Like my wonderful wife: the more I look, the more pure gold I find underneath :)
8-Stan Coveleski (new)
And he might belong above Mr. Griffith
Other very fine ballplayers:
9-George Van Haltren (4)
Hit. Ran. Played defense. Pitched. Long career. Played in one-league 1890s. Solidly on my ballot.
10-John McGraw (5)
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP ain’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us. KJOK will keep me from being the best FOJMcG.
11-Lip Pike (6)
AdjEqA of .302. Fine WS and OPS+. Played infield too. Concerns about his ethics’ affect on team performance made me drop him a bit.
12-Rube Waddell (7)
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit.
13-Heinie Groh (8)
Almost as much value in twelve years as Leach had in seventeen.
14-Roger Bresnahan (9)
A nod to position scarcity. A great player when he was on the field.
15-Addie Joss (10)
Bonus points for his great pennant exploits.
This of course assumes WJ and ZW get elected in '33; if not, I 'spose this ballot don't count.
Lots of players drop off; I hope we are a bit lenient on the "need to justify" rule next week :)
OK, I'll be going on vacation for the next 2 weeks. This is my official 1934 ballot. Could someone move it over to the 1934 ballot thread when it is up? Thanks.
PHOM
Ty Cobb
Pop Lloyd
1934 Ballot
1.Ty Cobb – One of the top 2 players who’ve been eligible so far. (The other is Honus Wagner)
2.Pop Lloyd – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. Only one thing stands out for me. People have compared him to Honus Wagner, and they’ve been taken seriously. This is enough to get up to #2 on the ballot.
3.Smokey Joe Williams – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. Looking forward to when Satchel Paige gets on the ballot to see who really was the best pitcher in Negro Leagues history.
4.Eddie Collins – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. (Does anyone else sense a pattern here) As far as I’m concerned “Cocky” Collins had every right to be cocky.
5.Tris Speaker – Would rank #1 in almost any other election. Just slightly behind Collins. Amazing that a player of this quality is ranked #5.
6.Cristobal Torriente –Would rank #1 in … well, some elections. Blows HOMer Pete Hill away. Great career and peak value.
7.Charley Jones – Would rank #1 in … well, no he wouldn’t. Very good hitter, though. 96% of value is above average. Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
8.Lip Pike – 95% of documented career is above average. Fresh look at Charley Jones, Pike, and Browning made me change my order of them. Elected PHOM in 1918.
9.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average.
11.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days.
12.Stan Coveleski – Not sure if I’m overrating him or underrating him. Need to see some more of his contemporaries to get a real handle on him.
13.Ed Williamson – Overvalued him in previous elections. Much closer to Groh and Leach than I thought. Still a damn good player, though. Still may be overrating him. Elected PHOM in 1931
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense. Took another look at him and he moved up a couple of spots
15.Tommy Leach – Good peak and decent career. I’ll take Leach’s career over Groh’s peak.
Required Explanations
16.Heinie Groh – Took a fresh look at Groh and other thirdbasemen. Very close to Leach, but I like Leach’s career a little more than Groh’s peak. A couple more years would’ve moved him up quite a bit.
20.George Van Haltren –I tend to really like steady careers like Van Haltren, Griffin, Beckley, but just can’t see him jumping over anyone on my ballot.
22.Clark Griffith –Won lots of games with bad teams. Was overrating him, so he dropped a few slots.
26.Rube Waddell –Impressive SO ability, but his record should be SO much better than it actually is.
30.Mickey Welch – Never sure about Welch. Compares with McCormick and Mullane, but I’m always re-evaluating these 3.
Off the ballot
16-20 Groh, Cooper, Mendez, Monroe, Van Haltren
21-25 Poles, Griffith, Willis, Doyle, Tiernan
26-30 Waddell, Bresnahan, McGraw, Bond, Welch
31-35 Griffin, Chance, Burns, Veach, Ryan
1. Tyrus R. Cobb (new) We've got our combination categories, like power-speed. How about this one: great player, but widely despised and often booed? Before Cobb, the press wasn't robust enough to support the "widely despised." Perhaps only Ted Williams and Barry Bonds can compete at this level.
2. Edward T. Collins (new) Why Collins over Speaker? Maybe it's just that, while I always knew Collins was great, every time I find out anything new about him, his stock goes up.
3. Tristram E. Speaker (new) Not that I have anything bad to say about Speaker. They're all going in, soon enough.
4. Joe Williams (new) I'd put Alexander ahead of him, but that's more about Alexander than about Williams. Of course he belongs in the HoM.
5. John Henry Lloyd (new) A great, great player - but an A or A- hitter, not an A+ like Wagner or Collins.
6. Cristobal Torriente (new) Another week or two of discussion is in order, but no reason to put him behind any of the outfield backlog.
7. George Van Haltren (8, 2, 1, 2, 3) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates.
8. Jimmy Ryan (6, 3, 2, 3, 4) Nearly indistinguishable from Van Haltren. 26th year on my ballot.
9. Larry Doyle (2, 5, 3, 4, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
10. Stanislaus Kowalewski (new). The best of the 3000-inning pitchers, other than maybe Vance. Had an off year in 1924, but a big contributor to the Senators' 1925 pennant.
11. Heine Groh (----, 6) This may be too high, but was an MVP candidate more than once.
12. Hugh Duffy (7, 4, 4, 5, 7) 28th year on my ballot.
13. Rube Waddell (4, 6, 5, 6, 8) The best one left from his generation, and I have him ahead of Griffith - but he's going to lose ground to a new generation of pitchers, of whom Coveleski is only the first.
14. Roger Bresnahan (9, 8, 6, 7, 9) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
15. Jake Beckley (18, 10, 11, 11, 10) No peak, long career. But still more peak than Hooper. Decided to move him ahead of Cravath.
16. Gavy Cravath (10, 9, 7, 8, 11) A big offensive peak. Yes, he took unique advantage of his park, but real wins resulted from that. Seriously lacking in bulk unless you also consider his work in Minneapolis.
17. Jose Mendez (---, 9, 12) Keeping him in position relative to other pitchers.
18. Frank Chance (13, 11, 10, 12, 13) I could have him higher; huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
19. Ben Taylor (new)
20. Mickey Welch (5, 7, 8, 10, 14) 300 wins, but the 80's are already well-represented.
21. George J. Burns (--, 11, 13, 15) My current favorite leadoff hitter, ahead of Thomas, Hartsel, and Bush. (See also the NBJHBA.)
22. Vic Willis (11, 12, 12, 14, 16) I could reasonably have him right up there with Waddell.
23. Jack Fournier (----, 17) Matches up will with Cravath. Less defense, a less-developed minor league back story - but he could mash.
24. Tommy Leach (----, 18) The candidacy of Groh throws some relief on his case - I think I've been underrating him.
25. Johnny Evers (12, 16, 20, 24, 19) Him, too.
Falling off the back of the list: Hooper, Adams, Long, Tinker, Griffith, Shocker, Veach, Jennings.
1.Ty Cobb: I rank him as the second greatest position player in baseball history. The second greatest player eligible so far, trialing only the Big Train.
2.Eddie Collins: The best-around player at his position in history.
3.Joe Williams: Probably a lot like Bob Feller, may have been even better than Satchel Paige.
4.Tris Speaker: A number one most any other year, Tris is one of the 3 best CFers of all-time.
5.Pop Lloyd: Again, likely not as good as Wagner. but was the best SS in NL history by most accounts.
6.Cristobal Torriente: The slugger of the great Foster teams, I am sure he will get in the HOM someday.
7.Rube Waddell: I've argued him to death elsewhere, but simply put, he put up some staggering numbers.
8.Jake Beckley: Great longevity totals, not as bad a peak as some would like to say.
9.Mickey Welch: Again, the notion that you can win 309 games simply from playing on a very good team has totally devalued this fine pitcher.
10.George Van Haltren: This is about where I draw the line on players I want to get inducted.
11.Heinie Groh: The best 3B available, nuff said.
12.Stan Coveleski: 1917-1921 is a very impressive run, apparently he was a good releiver too.
13.Eddie Cicotte: Three fantastic years make up the most of his career, postseason stats aren't that bad either ;)
14.Ben Taylor: Could possibly be the second greatest NL first baseman, but for now, I am going conservative with him.
15.Jimmy Ryan: A lot like GVH, both will likely drop in future elections.
16-25: Duffy, Willis, Griffith, Monroe, Mendesz, Bresnahan, Evers, Chance, Cravath, Leach
The arrival of the Magnificent Seven. Some numbers listed, for a change.
1. Ty Cobb. (n/e) Career adjusted win shares 782, top among players so far eligible. Total peak 300, top among eligibles. Peak rate, 07-17 = 47.43 ws/162 games, #3 among eligible position players. Honus Wagner ranks ahead of him all time because I give him an infielder bonus to career value and he beats Cobb on peak rate, but it's close between them. No one else eligible is close to them.
2. Tris Speaker. (n/e) cws 690, #5 among eligibles. Tp 269, #5 among eligibles. Pr, 12-17 = 46.16 ws/162, #4 among eligible position players. With infielder career bonuses, Collins is close to Speaker, but The Gray Eagle edges him on all three measures.
3. Eddie Collins. (n/e). cws 627, #7 among eligibles. Tp 213, #7 among eligibles, peak rate, 09-15 = 43.98 ws/162 games, #6 among eligible position players. Awesome player: #6 all time among eligibles, but two of the five ahead of him are on the ballot this year.
4. John Henry Lloyd. (n/e) cws 543, #9 among eligibles, tp 118, #13 among eligible position players. A lot of pitchers rate ahead of him, but pitchers tend to have higher peak value and lower career value than position players. Lloyd’s tp is comparable to Hamilton, Delahanty, Hines, but he beats this calibre of HoMer on career value). Pr 36.46 ws/162 games, # 21 among eligible position players. Most ahead of Lloyd are 19th-century players, when rates tended to be higher. #10 all time among eligibles.
5. Joe Williams. (n/e) Study of his Negro-League record makes him look more like Bob Feller than like Pete Alexander, if Bob Feller hadn’t missed four years for WWII and had pitched successfully until he was 40. ERA+ of about 122-120 in 5000-6000 ip. I have him as the 4th or 5th best pitcher so far eligible, behind Johnson, Young, and Mathewson. I’m not sure whether he or Kid Nichols is next. That puts him at about #14 or #15 all time among eligibles.
6. Cristobal Torriente. (n/e) cws 402, #36 among eligibles, 110 tp, #18 among position players eligible, pr, 15-20 = 37.10 ws/162 games, #20 among position players eligible. Would have been a first-ballot HoMer in a majority of elections.
7. Stan Coveleski. (n/e). For numbers on Coveleski, see my post in the 1934 discuss thread. Best pitcher eligible after Joe Williams. He’s not a shoo-in pitcher like Johnson, Williams, and Alexander, but he’s the best of the rest between 1910 and 1930. I think an apt analogy for Coveleski’s position relative to the three shoo-in pitchers is Frank Baker to Eddie Collins.
8. Clark Griffith. (3) Top returning candidate. Best remaining player from the still-underrepresented 1890s. I think he was better than Rusie. My system shows him at 36.5 support-neutral wins above average.
9. George Van Haltren (4) All-around, consistent talent; just the sort of player who has been underrated in traditional discussions of merit.
10. Mickey Welch. (5) 8th-10th best player of the 1880s. 33.5 support-neutral wins above average. Accomplished this feat against weaker competition in much easier conditions for pitchers, so despite higher career value, he ranks below Griffith.
11. Heinie Groh (6) . I’m pleased that he seems to be getting his due from the electorate.
12. Hughie Jennings (7) The third 1890s star still featured on my ballot. During his 1894-1898 peak, he was the best position player in baseball, and better than a pair of contemporary first-ballot HoMers, Billy Hamilton and Ed Delahanty, who were also at their peaks during these years.
13. Tommy Leach (8) Last star of the aughts who is a serious candidate for election.
14. Lip Pike. (9) Makes my ballot for the 32nd consecutive year.
15. Urban Shocker (10) A very underrated player; he might well be a HoMer. Shocker had a couple of great seasons in 1920 and 1921, and he was above average every single year he pitched. In comparing Shocker to a pitcher like Waddell, the electorate should keep in mind that average innings pitched for a starting pitcher dropped from an average of 277 for 1900-1909 to 230 for 1917-1926 as conditions for pitchers became increasingly difficult.
Top Ten Returning Players from 1933 Who Don’t Make my 1934 Ballot
Jake Beckley. See #38 below
Rube Waddell. See #22 below
Cupid Childs. See #27 below
Hugh Duffy. See #20 below.
16. Spotswood Poles (11) His peak was short, but strong in relation to his contemporaries. He’s stayed in the mix without having a vocal champion; I think he’ll rise to serious contention in time. He’s at the top of a group of second-tier stars from the 1910s – Poles, Mendez, Hooper, Doyle – whom I may be underrating.
17. Jose Mendez (12) Mendez was lights-out during his peak, which is better than that of any eligible pitcher aside from Johnson. After 1914 he didn’t pitch much, but he remained a highly effective in a limited role.
18. Harry Hooper (13). jimd's arguments about league quality have convinced me to reassess Cravath/Burns/Hooper/Veach as Hooper/Veach/Cravath/Burns, so Hooper moves into the rank formerly held by Cravath, and also moves above Larry Doyle, though I have some reservations about putting yet another teens outfielder up higher. Further movement is possible as I continue to study league quality issues.
19. Larry Doyle (14). Last of the possibly-underrated teens group.
20. Hugh Duffy (12). Like the four above, bumped off the ballot by the great class of 1934. He will probably be back around the bottom of my ballot in five years or so.
21. Wilbur Cooper (16) A consistently fine pitcher for 8 years. A Griffithesque career, but not quite as high a peak, and a couple of bad years outside his peak, which Griffith never had. Could move up or down significantly as I continue to study his contemporaries. He might be a worthy HoMer in his context, though the distance between his achievements and those of Shocker and Coveleski are making upward movement on his part look less likely than it did two years ago.
22. Rube Waddell (17) See Shocker comment above for more on how I compare Waddell to later pitchers. Waddell was a great talent, and he was one of the greatest characters in the history of major-league baseball. He’s thus deserving of his place in the Hall of Fame, but I think his value is just below the threshold for Hall of Merit induction.
23. Ben Taylor (n/e) Best Negro-League first-baseman to date, and best first baseman of the 1910s. Still probably not a HoMer. Like his contemporaries Konetchy and Daubert, he was a very good hitter and a fine defensive first baseman, but he was a star, not a superstar. Might move up into contention if the 16-19 group jumps upward.
24. Bobby Veach (18)
25. Roger Bresnahan (19) Top catcher of the aughts. Will probably stay off ballot for a long time now, unless the arrival of the great catchers of the twenties causes me to reevaluate catchers up as a group.
26. Jimmy Ryan (20)
27. Cupid Childs (21). I see Groh, Jennings, and Doyle all as superior to Childs among short-career infield candidates, and he doesn’t rank all that highly against his 1890s contemporaries, either.
28. Fielder Jones (22)
29. Dobie Moore (23)
30. Gavvy Cravath (24)
31. Herman Long (25)
32. Tommy Bond (26)
33. George Burns (27)
34. Charley Jones (28)
35. Bruce Petway (29)
36. Bill Monroe (30)
37. Babe Adams (31)
38. Jake Beckley (32) Like Childs, Beckley just doesn’t appear outstanding in comparison to his contemporaries. Lack of better first-basemen could give him a positional boost, but right now I don’t see the justification for a positional bonus for first base.
39. Frank Chance (33)
40. Tony Mullane (34)
Dropped Out of Top 40
Dick McBride (35) Last hurrah for the 1860s; it’s unlikely he’ll return to the top 40
Ed Konetchy (36)
Lave Cross (37)
Addie Joss (38)
John McGraw (39)
Johnny Evers (40)
Other new eligibles worthy of mention:
Jules Thomas – third-best Negro League outfielder of the teens, after Torriente and Poles. He may deserve a place in the top 40, but with so much work to be done on Lloyd, Williams, Torriente, and Taylor among Negro-Leaguers and with 1920s pitchers to try to get Coveleski placed, I just haven’t had time to study Thomas properly. I hope to study him for 1935 together with Bingo DeMoss and Bernardo Baro. He shouldn’t be forgotten: he might have been as good as Spotswood Poles. Even if he were, he wouldn’t make my ballot in 1934, though, so I figure waiting a year to place him properly isn’t costing him a vote he deserves.
Coveleski is also good enough not to be forgotten – would be much higher most years. Taylor and Thomas both as good as 2nd tier NL candidates we’ve been considering and in some cases, possibly wrongly (Foster, Johnson, Hill) electing. It’s gonna be a long struggle for Beckley and Welch, alas.
1. Ty Cobb. I alternate between Ty and Ted Williams as my favorite “pre-seeing-them-live” ballplayers (physically, I could have seen Ted, but was living on the wrong continent.) Soppy Montville bio of Williams has pushed me towards Ty. Should be in the Investors HOF for picking GM and Coca-Cola in the private equity stage, before they went public. I find Ty a very attractive personality, but I also found Richard Nixon a very attractive personality; so sue me!
2. Eddie Collins Figures almost as good as Tris, but he was an infielder. He and not Shoeless Joe was the main reason the Black Sox were rightly prohibitive favorites for the ’19 Series.
3. Tris Speaker This is the only year in history where he would rank as low as #3 (better than Matty or Nap, in my view.) Plus he was a Red Sox, and a central player of the dynasty. Losing Speaker and Cicotte at least as important as losing Ruth in condemning Sox to mediocrity.
4. Smokey Joe Williams Striking out 20 of the 1917 Giants, who won the National League is damn impressive – Clemens’ records weren’t against that level of competition. Level with Matty, behind Alexander sounds about right, even with the putative 400 wins (or 399 per Chris Cobb)
5. John Henry Lloyd Don’t see him as Top 10 all-time, but almost certainly top 50. I9 figures inflated, though; Chris Cobb’s arguments look to me persuasive, he’s not as good as Williams.
6. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2) Jake Beckley Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (8 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (5 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707 not as good as outfielder glut - but much of his career was played in the dead ball ‘00s, and 1B was a marginally more important fielding position than outfielder then. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.
7. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3) Mickey Welch “Money” slot again, probably his last for some time unless Beckley gets elected. - 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the short career dead ball era pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was better than the 00s pitchers, all of whom were pitching in favorable conditions, none of whom (other than Young and Matty) got near 300 wins.
8. Cristobal Torriente. I’m satisfied he was a great player and HOM-worthy, but probably the lower half of the HOM. His I9 translations beat Beckley/Welch, but not by much and I think I9’s too high. But everybody down to about 11-12 on this ballot is easily HOM-worthy, in my view.
10. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA
11. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.
12. (N/A-8-7-8) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B, and I’ve been undervaluing him, significantly.
13. (N/A-9) Heinie Groh Close to a clone of Childs, so fits here. 1774 hits, OPS+118, TB+BB/PA .431, TB+BB/Outs .666 (all 3 below Childs). 3B in 10s probably about equivalent to 2B in 90s.
14. (N/A-12-10) Sam Leever 194-100 and an ERA+ of 123 get him above Van Haltren and Ryan, there being no outfielder dearth. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Much better ERA+ than Tannehill, and W/L pct close to record territory. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Above Waddell for the “would you want him on your team” factor, moral probity.
15. (N/A) Stan Coveleski More wins than Leever and a similar ERA+, but started at the normal time, and less W/L pct. One of the best of his era, and will rank much higher in years to come.
OFF BALLOT
16. (N/A-10-9-8-11) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan
17. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.
18. (N/A-9-10-10-13) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so no higher than the middle of this weak ballot. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).
19. (N/A-11-14)Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134 and moves up owing to pitcher dearth, although his unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.
20. (N/A-13-15) Vic Willis Moved up owing to pitcher dearth 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special
21. (9-12-12-11-9-10-10-13-12-15-14-N/A-12-13-11-13-13-15-N/A) Lip Pike - Like Start, give some credit for missing 1860s. However, normalize 1871-78 season by season and he gets 1,592 hits after 26 - not quite an obvious HOM-er. 4 “normalized 200-hit” seasons, but only just, whereas Meyerle’s 1871 peak normalizes to 320 (obviously a random fluctuation, but in the right direction!)TB+BB/PA .478, TB+BB/Outs .713.
22. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike. Lower than Pike because not a huge pre-’71 career. Drops off in ’32, back in later 30s, hopefully.
23. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
24. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
25. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
26. Ben Taylor Are ALL the great NL’ers eligible in 1934? I’m putting him here, above Poles, he may well make the ballot in weak years.
27. Deacon McGuire
28. Tony Mullane
29. Jim McCormick
30. Spotswood Poles.
31. Larry Doyle
32. Roger Bresnahan. Santop, not this guy, is by far the best catcher of the era. Short career, and only about half of it as catcher.
33. Harry Hooper.
34. Jules Thomas. A smidgen less than Poles, I think. But you’re right, he’s a serious candidate.
35. Wilbur Cooper
36. Bruce Petway.
37. Jack Clements
38. Bill Monroe
39. Jose Mendez I9 has him below 200 wins and with a pretty unimpressive WPct. Pretty clearly not as good as Foster.
40. Chief Bender
41. Ed Konetchy
42. Hughie Jennings Not a historic peak, and a very short career.
43. Jesse Tannehill
44. Bobby Veach
45. Tommy Leach
46. Lave Cross
47. Tom York
1. Ty Cobb No one’s friend, immortal player. MVP candidate 1907-1913, 1915-1919, All-Star candidate 1906, 1914, 1920-1925, 1927. (21 HOM seasons). PHOM 1934.
2. Pop Lloyd Subjective fit here, but the only other “best player ever” candidate on the ballot. PHOM 1934.
3. Eddie Collins Best 2B ever, but rarely viewed as such. MVP candidate 1909-1917, 1919-1920, All-Star candidate 1918, 1921-1926 (18 HOM seasons, partial WWI credit)
4. Tris Speaker One of the two best long-career fielding CF ever. MVP candidate 1909-1910, 1912-1920, 1923, All-Star candidate 1911, 1921-1922, 1924-1927 (19 HOM seasons)
5. Joe Williams Another subjective placement, but 2-5 are essentially equal.
6. Christobal Torriente Big gap between him and below.
7. George Van Haltren Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.
8. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters, but I’m a career/prime man. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.
9. Jimmy Ryan My system likes Jimmy about as much as Van Haltren and Sheckard. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.
10.Ben Taylor I decided Ben’s lengthy, solid career belongs with my career guys.
11. Harry Hooper I can’t support Beckley, Van Haltren, and Ryan, and ignore Hooper. MVP candidate 1918, All-Star candidate 1910-1917, 1919-20, 1922, 1924. (13 HOM seasons) PHOM 1931.
12. Heinie Groh - A rare infielder sighting on my ballot. MVP candidate 1917-1919. All-Star candidate 1914-1916, 1920-21, 1923-24. (10 HOM seasons).
13. Hugh Duffy Part of the now underrepresented CF block, but significantly below Van Haltren, Sheckard and Ryan. MVP candidate 1893-1894, All-Star candidate 1889-1892, 1895-1899. (11 HOM seasons)
14. Mickey Welch Solid pitcher is losing his luster as more 1880’s contemporaries join the HOM. With the lack of 1890’s quality, I think he still rates here. MVP candidate 1884-1885, All-Star candidate 1880-81, 1883, 1886-1889 (9 HOM seasons)
15. Tony Mullane I don’t see much between Welch and Mullane. I know this puts me in the minority. MVP candidate 1882-1884, All-Star candidate 1886-1893 (11 HOM seasons)
MISSING OUT, in no particular order anymore.
Lip Pike – Would probably be in my PHOM if we started the election earlier. MVP candidate 1876 All-star candidate 1871-75, 1877-78. (7 HOM seasons)
Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown or perhaps even Waddell or Coveleski. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)
Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)
Rube Waddell - Fun man who needed to play longer. MVP candidate 1902, 1905. All-Star candidate 1901, 1903-1904, 1906-1908. (8 HOM seasons).
Cupid Childs – Not enough career, but a fine player. MVP candidate 1890. All-Star candidate 1891-1898. (9 HOM seasons).
Yes, for all of you who were guessing, "karlmagnus" is the alias used for the Governator. :-D
2. Eddie Collins (n/a) - The greatest second baseman
3. Tris Speaker (n/a) - I love the batting average and the extra hits he has over Collins, but Collins was simply more dominating at second then Tris was in the OF.
4. Pop Lloyd (n/a) - I love Smokey Joe, but it appears to me that Pop was more dominating and
more deserving at his position then Smokey was at pitching...nothing against Smokey though,
he's only one spot down.
5. Smokey Joe Williams (n/a) - see Pop
6. Mickey Welch (2) - This ballot sure hurt his #1 and #2 ranking I've been keeping him at.
7. Clark Griffith (4) - Big jump for Griffith. All of the talk on Welch has had me reevaluate
Griffith. Turns out Griffith was much more valuable than I was giving him credit for.
8. Stan Coveleski (n/a) - I initially had him ranked 17th on my ballot, but since then I've read everyone's comments on him and have decided that I had him way too low.
9. Rube Waddell (5) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.
10. Cristobal Torriente (n/a) - EXCELLANT player, just not in Pop or Smokey Joe territory
-----------------------My PHOM line-----------------------------------------------------------
11. Lip Pike (6) - I bump him ahead of a couple others this year as I am convinced he was a
bigger stud than I was willing to let myself believe. I can see him finally getting in one of these days.
12. George Van Haltren (7) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.
13. Jose Mendez (8) - I thought I'd have him a lot higher than this, but I just don't feel like
I have a firm grasp of his career yet. I do feel much more comfortable with him than I do with Rube Foster though.
14. Jake Beckley (9) - Big drop for a guy that would've been #2 on my ballot this year. I didn't find any reason to like him any less, I just found justification in moving several
others higher than him.
15. Roger Bresnahan (10) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.
16. Hughie Jennings (11) - Nothing new to add
17. Heinie Groh (12) - One of the best thirdbasemen to date
18. Bobby Veach (13) - Not enough career for him to merit a higher ranking on my ballot, but enough peak to grab a lower spot.
19. Jimmy Ryan (14) - A watered down Van Haltren
20. Eddie Cicotte (15) - Underrated in my opinion. May not be HOM material, but underrated
nonetheless.
21. Urban Shocker (16) - 8 good pitching seasons. Nothing spectacular, but a respectable
career.
22. Hugh Duffy (17) - Back onto my ballot. No new thoughts on him
23. Harry Hooper (18) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I originally thought he would rank much higher than this on my initial ballot, but he just doesn't meet the
qualifications in my mind that everyone above him does.
24. Jim McCormick (19) - He's no Mickey Welch
25. Cupid Childs (20)
26. Bill Doak (n/a) - Yep, he almost cracked my top 25. Ok, he lost a lot of games but his ERA
was outstanding, and he played for the Cardinals before the Gas House Gang came in, and let's
face it, those St. Louis teams just weren't very good. He did awful well for having such awful
teams.
was outstanding, and he played for the Cardinals before the Gas House Gang came in, and let's
face it, those St. Louis teams just weren't very good. He did awful well for having such awful
teams.
Boy, if you like Doak, you must love Willis (who kicks Doak's butt all over the place ERA+ and innings-wise)! :-)
1. Eddie Collins (n/e) -- Greatest second baseman on the ballot. Also, greatest second baseman of all time.
2. Pop Lloyd (n/e) -- Greatest Negro Leaguer on the ballot. Also, greast Negro League player to date
3. Joe Williams (n/e) -- Greatest pitcher on the Ballot. Greatest Negro League pitcher to date.
4.Ty Cobb (n/e) -- Greatest outfielder on the ballot. Possibly the greatest centerfielder of all-time. Possibly not. Loses out to Collins on defense, intangibles, and post-season play.
5. Tris Speaker (n/e) -- First player on ballot who is not arguably the best anything on the ballot really.
6. Jake Beckley (2) -- Greatest non-new player on the ballot.
7. Mickey Welch (3) -- Greatest 19th century player on the ballot
8. Cristobal Torriente (n/e) -- Greatest Cuban player on the ballot
9. Jose Mendez (5) -- Greatest Cuban pitcher on the ballot
10. Gavy Cravath (6) -- Greatest PCL, American Association, and dead-ball slugger on the ballot.
11. Lip Pike (7) -- Greatest NA player on the ballot
12. Roger Bresnahan (8) -- Greatest catcher on the ballot.
13. Pete Browning (10) -- Greatest AA star on the ballot.
14. Bill Monroe (11) -- Went from #1 black player on the ballot to #4.
15. Clark Griffith (13) -- Greatest 1890s pitcher on the ballot.
Dropping off for the moment: 16. Groh, 19. Childs 20. van Haltren, and 21. Chance. All should be back eventually.
Covaleski places as tied for the next pitcher spot with Cicotte. They are currently 17/18 or 18/17. I don’t have to decide this week.
You should have tried these:
Tris Speaker: Greatest player who was a member of the KKK at one time, but wasn't a racist
Bill Monroe: Greatest Bill Monroe who played baseball, but not the mandolin
:-)
Hey! Let’s be careful out there
Maybe the greatest television series ever. But do you remember Boccho's attempt to do a series on a baseball team?
Bay City Blues? Wasn't bad, but I could have dome without the male nudity, if you ask me.
:-0
2.John Henry Lloyd
3.Tris Speaker
4.Eddie Collins
5.Joe Williams
6.Cristobal Torriente
I just ranked the four major leaguers in order of career Win Shares.
If you give Lloyd the 5% i9’s discount (with all the difficulties i9’s entails), then he created 1956 career runs. Eddie Collins created 2006 career runs. By this crude measure, Lloyd was comparable to Collins as a hitter; Eddie was a little better at the plate, but Pop was also a Gold Glove shortstop. Intuitively, that seems a good approximation of his value. Williams may deserve to rank higher than Collins or Speaker, but those are two incredible players, and I haven’t seen enough to convince me to move Smokey ahead.
Give the same i9’s discount to Torriente, and he created 1435 runs; Duke Snider created 1436. There’s all sorts of difficulties with that comparison, but I like the analogy: Torriente’s Snider to Cobb’s Mantle and Speaker’s Mays.
7.Lip Pike
8.Jake Beckley
If Torriente was the Duke, then Pike was Dick Allen: outstanding hitter at an important defensive position, fairly short career, underrated by his peers because he was huge pain in the butt.
I understand why Beckley is as welcome to peak voters as the Dixie Chicks would be at the Republican National Convention. But I’m not really a peak voter, and Jake’s a good career pick. He has 316 unadjusted Win Shares, which modified for schedule length would be, what, 330-340 WS? Not a lock, but hardly an embarrassment to the HoM. His WARP3 career score is good (87.1). He had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. His career grey ink is good, and he has very good counting stats; I know we have to take the 90s level of offense into account, but 2900 hits/1600runs/1500 RBI certainly doesn’t discourage me from putting him high on the ballot. His era is underrepresented as it is, and I can’t imagine inducting another first baseman who played between 1897 and 1915. I’m sold.
9.Stan Coveleski
10.Clark Griffith
I see these two as very comparable players; Coveleski pitched more innings compared to his contemporaries, so I’ve placed him above Griffith.
11.Heinie Groh
12.Tommy Leach
13.Rube Waddell
Leach has 324 career WS. We’ve elected every position player with more career Win Shares except Van Haltren, and Haltren’s WS (344) are distorted by his pitching stint. He played near flawless CF/3B and hit in a low offense era. I’m more and more convinced that he belongs. Groh was an even better player than Leach in his prime, and moves ahead of Tommy on this ballot.
Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.
14.Ned Williamson
15.Hugh Jennings
Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better.
16.Pete Browning
17. Cupid Childs
18.Larry Doyle
19. Mickey Welch
20.Spotswood Poles
21.Hugh Duffy
22.George Van Haltren
23.George Burns
I had always thought Hugh Duffy was terribly overrated. However, once I had to explain why I’m not voting for him…well, his career looks like Van Haltren’s, a little shorter, but with a big year and better defense. VH does have 689 innings of league average pitching, but I don’t give him a lot of credit for that, and he slips off my ballot. Mickey Welch’s peripherals keep him off the ballot this year.
24.Jose Mendez
25.Mike Tiernan
26.Bill Monroe
27.Jimmy Ryan
28.Jim McCormick
29.Harry Hooper
30.Roger Bresnahan
1. Ty Cobb (new). The conventional wisdom's right.
2. Tris Speaker (new). He'd be in fourth except that he has (by far) the most fielding win shares of any outfielder ever.
3. Pop Lloyd (new). Yes many Negro Leaguers played forever, but were any as good as long as this shortstop?
4. Eddie Collins (new). A personal favorite, this class is whacko-nutty deep in new candidates.
5. Smokey Joe Williams (new). Terrific.
6. Crisotbal Torriente (new). Zach Wheat retired at the right time - all 6 are better than him.
7. Jake Beckley (3,2,1,2,3). I'll let others vote for the best players. I'll vote for the best careers.
8. Clark Griffith (6,5,3,3,4). Personal favorite 1890s pitcher. Nice career, nice prime. The median winning percentage of his opponent one of the highest of the pitchers I've checked. Jumps past Welch due to both the overall quality of play in the 1890s.
9. Stan Coveleski (new). Minor 1890s adjustment keeps CG ahead of him. SC had great numbers and he earned them.
10. Mickey Welch (5,4,4,4,5). Thank you retrosheet. Turns out he earned those 300 wins. Offensive support only gave him 3-4 wins. Defensive support, though a little above average, was actually worse the defensive support of all major non-Galvin pitchers in the 1880s. In 1885, against the Cubs, he faced off against John Clarkson 7 times & won every game.
11. Lave Cross (25,23,22,16,6). Weird career. OK for a long time. Great defense, but banal offense. Spent a few years as one of the worst hitting 3Bmen around, but overall he had an OPS+ of 100, which is above average for the 2nd most important glove position. And oh yeah, he's possibly the greatest defensive player ever at third, and he did it forever. Gets some bonus for playing some time at catcher. 16.0 seasons played.
12. George Van Haltren (9,7,7,6,7). Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch. Played 14.2 seasons worth of games (including as pitcher) by my reckonin'.
13. Jimmy Ryan (10,8,8,7,8). GVH without the ability to pitch. Played 14.6 seasons worth of games, by my reckonin'.
14. Ben Taylor (new). Heckuva hitter for quite a while.
15. Cupid Childs (12,10,9,9,9). Looking at him again & I think he's better than the infielders I was putting just above him. The D & OBP keep him above Larry Doyle. 10.5 seasons worth of games by my reckonin'.
Top 10 returners:
16. Heine Groh (10). 11.1 seasons played. Better prime & bat than Leach, and off-sets Leach's career numbers because Groh spent all his time at the more important 3B position.
31. Rube Waddell (26,24,26,25,25). The king of unearned runs - and considering how important his ERA+ is to his candidacy, that really hurts. Entry of Vaughn and Cicotte helps him.
34. Lip Pike (19,17,18,20,28). Stuck in a glut of OFers at the edge of the ballot that could best be described as: "If only they'd been that good for a few more years. . ." By my reckonin', from 1871 onward he played in 7.5 seasons worth of games, so I'll figure he's worth about 11.5-12 seasons worth in his career.
36. Hugh Duffy (27,26,28,27,30). Needs either better rate stats or more games. He's a tweener - in a bad way. Periodic re-evaluation boosts him a little. I reckon him at 12.5 seasons played.
37. Hughie Jennings (42,43,29,28,31). See Beckley comment.
Really? Not even the best fielding OF on the ballot, let alone all time?
Seriously, its either Speaker or Mays as the best all time fielding OF, by a wide margin. Maybe if Andrew Jones plays twelve (12!) more years at his current fielding level, he can get mentioned some day too. (Of course, Matt's nickname may mean he's partial to Richie Ashburn.)
Certainly, the greatest AL centerfielder of all-time.
1. Ty Cobb (N)
2. Tris Speaker (N)
3. Eddie Collins (N)
If an inner-circle HoMer is a player who is an all-star and MVP candidate nearly every year for a long career, then there are (at least) three inner-circle newcomers this year. Career Win Shares totals of 722, 630, and 574 provide as good an explanation as any for the ordering.
4. John Henry Lloyd (N)
5. Joe Williams (N)
The first Negro League candidates who I am completely confident about. Would be top-of-the ballot selections most years.
6. Stan Coveleski (N) Perhaps the litmus test of how deep we will go in 1910-1930 era pitchers. While part of me thinks it's unfair that legal spitball pitchers such as Shocker, Coveleski, and Faber do so well in my system, I have to like Coveleski's 3082 IP and 127 ERA+.
7. Cristobal Torriente (N) I would think that he would have to be elected to Cooperstown eventually. His career record looks like a HoMer's.
8. Roger Bresnahan (3) Best catcher of the 00s.
9. Jake Beckley (4) The career man.
10. George "Rube" Waddell (5) 142 ERA+; 3 ERA+ titles; 6 consecutive strikeout titles. Most similar batter is Stan Coveleski.
11. Harry Hooper (6) Longevity, defense, and league strength.
12. Eddie Cicotte (7) 3223 IP; 123 ERA+; 1 ERA+ title, came in second twice to Walter Johnson, and once to Babe Ruth(!).
13. Heinie Groh (8) Great 3B at his peak. Adjustment for NL weakness drops him lower than I would have otherwise rated him.
14. Ray Schalk (12) Quirky(?) selection in my system, but does well in longevity, defense, and league strength. Like most of my selections, does make baseballreality's MLB timeline.
15. George Van Haltren (9) Pitching value and the fact that he spent more time as a centerfielder lifts him above Ryan.
Knocked off: Ryan, Shocker, Pike, Chance, Mendez
Pike, Griffith and Jennings, Childs, and Duffy have all been on my ballot before.
Welch has not. I think that the 1880s are to the HoM what the 1920s-1930s are to the HoF.
1. Ty Cobb (new). I considered dropping him down because of the character issue and the greater difficulty of replacing a middle IF. But no. Cobb was a pain in the du-pah, but the Tigers' struggles after '09 had more to do with a lack of pitching. And he played in as many World Series as Speaker, after all. And other than Speaker, who (like Ruth and Gehrig or Gehrig and Foxx) is an accident of history, who exactly would you replace Cobb with? PHoM 1934.
2. Eddie Collins (new). The positional difference is not enough to move him ahead of Cobb, but it moves him ahead of Speaker. And Collins was a (or maybe 'the") leader on two multi-pennant dynasties, playing in twice as many World Series as Tris. PHoM 1934.
3. Tris Speaker (new). Arguably the second greatest CF of all-time. Third is no shame on this ballot. PHoM 1935.
4. Smokey Joe Williams (new). Anywhere from 330 to 470 MLE wins. Even if closer to 330 than 470, he goes here. (If closer to 470 he moves ahead of Speaker.) PHoM 1935.
5. Pop Lloyd (new). Here's the surprise. A .284 MLE? Shocking. But according to Chris' methods and explanation, sounds about right. And if so, no way he plays 25 years in the bigs. But even if 20 years at .284 and excellent defense, he's a HoMer. PHoM 1936.
6. Hughie Jennings (2). Still the, oh, 4th highest post-NA ML peak. PHoM 1927.
7. Heinie Groh (3). 2nd best 3B we've seen yet. PHoM 1933.
8. Cristobal Torriente (new). Possibly overrated by our group. Not sure he's better than Carey, Heilmann or Roush. Those will be tough choices the next 3 years, though right now I have him pegged as PHoM 1937 ahead of those guys. We'll see.
9. Jose Mendez (5). Not sure he wasn't better than Torriente, not sure he was.
10. Rube Waddell (6). Best of the non-NB pitchers (20th century), but there's a pack of 'em. PHoM 1932.
11. Tommy Bond (11). Best of the non-NB pitchers (19th century). PHoM 1929.
12. Cupid Childs (12). PHoM 1925.
13. Lip Pike (4). My new system hurts him considerably. PHoM 1928.
14. Ed Williamson (10). Those who take Babe Ruth and John McGraw's comments re. Pop Lloyd at face value, take another look at Big Ed! I will be comparing Hughie, Cupid and Ed soon in an effort to settle the eternal question, who should the next 19th century IF in the HoM be? (None of the above is not a choice!) PHoM 1924.
15. Charley Jones (7). Watch for my eval. of selected 19th century "hitters." I've had Lip and Charley at the top of that list forever. Browning is certainly in that class, but in this case none of the above might be a choice. PHoM 1921.
Dropped out: Browning (12), Doyle (13), Monroe (14), D. Moore (15).
16-20. Doyle, Monroe, Browning, Moore, Dunlap.
21-25. Poles, Joss, Leach, McCormick, Duffy.
Required:
Van Haltren--nice peak, nice career, 26th.
Griffith--nice peak, nice career, in the 40s.
Beckley--nice career, no peak, in the 30s.
Bresnahan--nice, nice, nice, 30s.
Welch--ERA+ and WARP do not lie. 40s.
Coveleski--probably should be in top 25, ballot-worthy in a down year.
Ben Taylor--possibly the best 1B available, but soon to be outstripped by a wide margin by at least 3 newbies. Probably won't ever make my ballot.
372 batting avg.
434 on base percentage
516 slugging percentage
1416 runs
2713 hits
3765 total bases
431 doubles
210 triples
1211 RBIs
765 stolen bases
708 extra base hits
3516 times on base
the only major categories where he didn’t lead the majors in was Hrs (Cravath) and walks (Bush) this looks like something no one else ever accomplished.
by the way personally I still give him 12 batting titles, 4191 hits and a 367 batting avg. (but not on the list)
2. Tris Speaker (Makes my pHoM this year) always a bridesmaid never a bride (But I do have him as the best fielding center fielder ever)
3. Eddie Collins HOPE HE DOSN’T MAKE THE HOM THE YEAR
4. John Henry Lloyd HIM TOO
5. Mickey Welch 15th in innings pitched (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
7. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
8. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
9. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
10. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
11. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
12. Smokey Joe Williams underrated by most, overrated here, he’s no Welch
13. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever
14. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
15. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
16. Lip Pike 465 slugging percentage (made my personal HoM in 1910)
17. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
18. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
19. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
20. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
21. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
22. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
explanation for players of the ballot
Cristobal Torriente see his thread for an explanation
Heinie Groh no third base bonus
Hughie Jennings would be higher if he had led his league in something important
1. Ty Cobb (n/a), Det. (A), CF / LF (’05-’28) (1934) – As jaw-dropping as the contenders on this ballot are, the immortals truly shine when compared to the players just below that status.
2. Tris Speaker (n/a), Bost. - Clev. (A), CF (’07-’28) (1934) – I’ll let someone else pick the hat – made his name with Boston, the numbers favor Cleveland.
3. Eddie Collins (n/a), Phila. - Chic. (A), 2B (’06-’28) – I’ll let someone else pick the hat – made his name with Philly, the numbers favor Chicago.
4. Smokey Joe Williams (n/a), NY (--), SP (’10-’32) – His numbers are stupid good, mostly based on the IP. Cy Young would be 4th on this ballot FWIW, Big Train 2nd.
5. Pop Lloyd (n/a), Phi – NY – Chic – Bkn – Columb - NY again (--), SS (’06-’31) – I’ll let someone else pick the ha….. – If somebody starts arguing with you that Hall of Famers don’t stay with one team like they used to, point them towards the ’34 ballot thread.
6. Cristobal Torriente (n/a), Chic. (--), CF (’13-’28) – Only 106.8 est. W3 based off the MLE’s.
7. George Van Haltren (3), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – A case can be made for Van Haltren over Wheat. Mostly along the lines of reducing timelines & ignoring W3 PRAR, but it’s a case I could be persuaded by. I’m going back to adjusted WS to break the tie with Ryan.
8. Jimmy Ryan (4), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Still underrated by the group.
9. Harry Hooper (5), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
10. Fielder Jones (6), Chic.(A), CF / RF (’96-’08) (1930) – Criminally underrated here. OPS+ isn’t everything folks…
11. Ben Taylor (n/a), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) – Worried he’ll be forgotten because of a group wariness on injecting too much new blood in one year. Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
12. Stan Coveleski (n/a), Clev (A), SP (’16-’28) – I’d recommend to anyone here checking out the minor league ballpark named after him in South Bend, IN.
13. Jake Beckley (7), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Solid numbers forever.
14. Rube Waddell (8), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – Tied at the hip to Foster, so the new WARP helps them both to the top of the pitcher glut.
15. Heinie Groh (9), Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) – He was #9 last year, and I haven’t reconsidered!!!!!!!!!
Since I fully expect to elect Urban Shocker (#16) into my PHOM, I’m thinking this ballot is better than any previous one.
Lip Pike – Too many other worthies have arrived (and will continue to) and rank ahead of him. Doesn’t look likely that he’ll ever make it to the ballot.
Clark Griffith – ‘New Blood’ Casualty.
Hughie Jennings – Did ya notice how Big Train’s peak puts Jennings to shame?
Mickey Welch – I think McCormick is 1) better than Welch, & 2) slotted on the election results pretty close to where I would place him (43rd) if I ranked them out that far.
Pike, Griffith, Jennings, Fine, Howard, Howard & Welch are in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
I do like Willis...He's coming in at #29 on my ballot. Willis definately isn't forgotten :)
26. Doak
27. Browning
28. Leach
29. Willis
30. Cravath
My PHoM inductees are Ty Cobb and Pop Lloyd.
1934 Ballot
1. Ty Cobb (ne)--Four thousand, one hundred, and eighty nine. Wow.
2. Pop Lloyd (ne)--26 seasons and 8 MVP years. I'm inclined to think he was just as good as the Flying Dutchman.
3. Eddie Collins (ne)--The all time sacrifice hits king.
4. Smokey Joe Williams (ne)--As many no-hitters as five and a half Nolan Ryans.
5. Tris Speaker (ne)--It's almost a crime to rank someone this low who has 792 career doubles.
6. Cristobal Torriente (ne)--Definitely an elite player.
7. Mickey Welch (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2)--All those ones look a bit silly with all of these "real" candidates around this year. But Welch is the best of the rest.
8. Jake Beckley (6, 3, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4)--Best first baseman on the ballot, and a very consistent hitter.
9. Rube Waddell(5, 8, 8, 6, 5, 4, 5, 6)--No one had more K's in the first decade of the 20th century.
10. Clark Griffith (11, 8, 5)--46 Wins Above Team. That's antihistamine numbers.
11. Ben Taylor (ne)--I believe he's closer to Beckley than he is to Konetchy.
12. Bill Monroe (15, nr, 14, 12, 11, 6, 7, 7)--Leads the second tier of middle infielders.
13. Jose Mendez (4, 8)--Still looks very similar to Rube Foster.
14. Lip Pike (13, 14, 12, 10, 8, 8, 9, 9)--I'd like to see a few more 19th century stars inducted.
15. Cupid Childs(13, 15, 14)--A decade of dominance keeps him from slipping off the ballot.
Off-ballot:
16. Roger Bresnahan (9, 11, 9, 7, 6, 7, 10, 10)
In/Out Line
17. George Van Haltren (14, 15, 13, 13, 12, 10, 11, 11)
18. Spotswood Poles (11, 9, 9, 12, 12)
19. Bruce Petway (14, 12, 14, 13)
20. Jim McCormick (15, nr, 13, 15)
21. Tommy Leach
22. Lave Cross
23. Stan Coveleski--After some adjustments, this is where he rates for me.
24. Jules Thomas--I feel he's closer to Poles than he is to Shively
25. Addie Joss
26. Heinie Groh--Aye yi yi. I've been comparing him to Childs, Doyle, Cross, and Leach, and this is where he ranks. Lambast away.
31. Jimmy Ryan--The gap between him and GVH is beginning to grow, not through any fault of Ryan's but due to the steady increase of "very good" candidates.
32. Hugh Duffy--A .400 hitter who led the NL of the 1890's in HR and RBI. But quite a few mediocre seasons, too.
58. Hughie Jennings--Just not my kind of player. His peak isn't high enough to offset his brevity.
Ok, now that '34's out of the way, bring on the Dizzy Dismukes and Bernardo Baro discussions!
1) Ty Cobb: Best hitter ever before Ruth comes on the scene. Led the AL in OPS+ 9 years in a row from 1907-1915. Career OPS+ of 167. Was even good in the field (B+ in WS; 104 Rate in CF).
2) Tris Speaker: 16 times in the AL’s top5 in OPS+ and he was a gold glove caliber CF the whole time. His advantage with the glove brings him pretty close to Cobb, but not close enough.
3) Eddie Collins: Put up all-star quality seasons for 20 years. Career OPS+ of 143. BP rate at 2B of 107 is equal to Speaker’s in CF, but WS only ranks Collins as a B-. WARP3 and WS both have him the slightest bit behind Speaker, so I’ve placed him at #3.
4) Smokey Joe Williams: 2nd best Negro League pitcher ever—best ever at this point. If he doesn’t make it this year he should be in next year. It goes without saying, but this top 5 is something else.
5) Pop Lloyd: Obviously tremendously talented. I guess I’m ranking him conservatively because just how great he was is hard to pin down. I wouldn’t put him above Cobb, but I could easily see him ranked above the other 3 top guys.
6) Lip Pike: Hard to evaluate, but I’m going to try to stay consistent—I’ve had him high, so far, and I haven’t seen anything that’s convinced me to change my mind. Impressive 155 OPS+. A dominant player over a somewhat brief time. I don't think he is too far behind his contemporaries that are already in the HoM.
7) Stan Covaleski: Debuts on the ballot just ahead of Waddell—-better WARP3 and same DERA as Rube. Win Shares has them even closer, but overall I think Stanislaus wins out. Horrible hitter, but Waddell wasn’t that great either. 2nd best AL pitcher of the late-teens, behind Walter Johnson, ahead of Cicotte.
8) Rube Waddell: Definition of a dominating pitcher. Strikeout king of the '00s. Slight edge in career length puts him higher than Joss for me. Practically tied with Covaleski.
9) Addie Joss: 8 excellent seasons in a row. Clearly one of the top pitchers of the ’00s. 150 and 213 PRAA (all-time) in his top 3 and top 5 seasons is better than any other eligible pitcher.
10) Pete Browning: One of the few remaining outstanding hitters from the 19th Century. His 30.81 WS/162 games is highest among returning eligible hitters with over 1000 games played.
11) Cristobal Torriente: “Greatest Cuban home-run hitter in baseball history” according to Riley’s Encyclopedia. A great player whose skill set compares well with Roberto Clemente. However, he’s still not in the class of Lloyd and Williams. I think he’s a star closer to the Ben Taylor level—that’s why I have them ranked together. I’m starting off ranking him conservatively at #11, which, on this ballot, is not too shabby.
12) Ben Taylor: Best Sprundel ever. Slight bonus for his pitching. Best Negro League 1st baseman of his time. 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman ever. I know that’s a debatable statement but I think he was a better all-around player than Suttles and Taylor's stats are dampened by his era. He deserves to be in the HoM eventually. Comparable to Beckley and Konetchy in that he was good for a long time, but I think he was more of a standout than either of them. The dearth of stats for his era doesn’t help his argument, but I’m convinced of his excellence anyhow.
13) Hughie Jennings: He averaged more WS/Inning on defense than any other eligible player—his shorter career probably helps make that the case (Tinker is not far behind him), but it is still quite impressive. Gives up some ground this year to the exceptional Negro Leaguers who have a bit more career to lean on.
14) Roger Bresnahan: Flip-flopped him with Jennings last year. Best catcher out there. I’m still contemplating moving him up significantly because catcher is such an underrepresented position.
15) Jose Mendez: Great pitcher. Not quite on Smokey Joe’s level. There is a pretty big gap between Mendez and the next group of pitchers that starts with Griffith at #21.
16) Charley Jones: 149 OPS+ .321 EQA 30.17 WS per 162g…Even with no credit for missed time he was the cream of the crop—not far behind Pike and Browning for best remaining player from ’70s & ’80s.
17) Dobie Moore: It’s always hard to gauge the reputations of Negro League stars, but Dobie appears to have been a dominator for a long enough time before he got shot that I think he is worthy of the Hall.
18) Fred Dunlap: Pretty good hitter for a second baseman (.307 EQA/ 133 OPS+) and BP card is high on his defense (Rate/Rate2 of 113/107 at 2B). Better than Childs in WARP3/162g (10.6 vs. 8.3), WS/162g (27.7 vs. 26.5), and WS defense (A- vs. B+).
19) Heinie Groh: Replaced John McGraw as my highest rated 3B. Outstanding on defense: 111 Rate according to BP and an A- by WS. Had an amazing run from 1916-1919 where he was among the NL’s top 10 in adjusted OPS 4 times (second twice). Extended peak from ’15-’20 where he averaged just over 28 WS and 9 WARP3 per season. He should work his way back onto my ballot soon.
20) Gavvy Cravath: Great player with lots of question marks. I’ve giving him credit for excellent minor league seasons. Beginning of players that I think are borderline HoMers.
21) Clark Griffith: Stays at the top of the group of similar pitchers--just above Cicotte and Willis. I like it that he had the most consistent and prolonged peak ('94-'01), the others were more up and down. He is tops among that group in all-time PRAA for his career (159) and his top 5 seasons (163). It may be some time before he creeps back into the lower end of my ballot.
Other returning top 10 off ballot:
23) Cupid Childs: Of the remaining white 2nd basemen, I still prefer Dunlap. Cupid was getting closer to the 15th slot before he was pushed down this year by the excellent newcomers.
29) Hugh Duffy: Second among the remaining outfielders, behind Fielder Jones by a hair. I don’t foresee him getting close to my ballot any time soon.
39) George Van Haltren: He’s definitely in the top half of the cluster of OFs who remain off my ballot. I haven’t been convinced that he should really be separated from most of the rest of the pack. The abundance of OFs who seem to be of about the same quality as GVH is evidence that none of them are quite outstanding enough to be in the HoM.
55) Mickey Welch: Prospectus’ timelining is pretty harsh on him. I may be underrating pitchers of that era, but I can’t see him getting close to my ballot.
56) Jake Beckley: In spite of long career, lower WARP3 than most of the OF swarm (Leach, Hooper, GVH, Ryan, F. Jones, among others). 5-year peak by WARP3 is relatively low, too, at 32.
1. Ty Cobb -- one of greatest players ever
2. Tris Speaker -- overshadowed by Cobb
3. Eddie Collins -- he and Speaker are very close
4. Pop Lloyd -- one of all time greats too
5. Smokey Joe Williams -- ditto
6. Cristobal Torriente -- slight gap after SJW
7. Jake Beckley -- big drop but I still like Jake
8. Larry Doyle -- very good second baseman
9. Rube Waddell -- luv those strikeouts
10. Addie Joss -- luv that WHIP
11. Lip Pike -- great hitter in his era
12. Stan Coveleski -- borderline HOF/HOMer
13. Urban Shocker -- just as good as Coveleski
14. Heinie Groh -- I overlooked Groh last ballot
15. Cupid Childs -- last on strongest ballot ever
I wonder how many from this ballot will eventually make the HOM!
(1) Ty Cobb (new)--Offensive gap too much for Collins to overcome.
(2) Eddie Collins (new)--By a nose over Tris; CF really no less valuable than 2B, but EC's durability rarer at his position.
(3) Tris Speaker (new)--No negatives.
(4) Lloyd (new)--Deducting for the years he hung on, ARod with a 20 year career.
(5) Smokey Joe Williams (new)--So maybe he's Kid Nichols or Bob Feller instead of Walter Johnson or Pete Alexander.
(6) Cristobal Torriente (new)--Based as much on reputation as analysis; at the top of the 1937 to do list.
(7) Cupid Childs (3rd)--Great bat, good glove, peak, longevity for his time and position, what am I missing?
(8) George Van Haltren (4th)--Did everything well for a long time.
(9) Hughie Jennings (5th)--Etc.
(10) Heinie Groh (6th)--Getting his due.
(11) Stan Coveleski (new)--Every system I use has him as HoM-worthy; still need to sort out where he ranks among his contemporaries.
(12) Frank Chance (7th)--Big stepdown in quality; closer to 100th place than to 5th.
(13) Hugh Duffy (8th)-Have been studying his WS rates and can't find a systematic flaw; giving them full credence would have him 7th or 8th.
(14) Lip Pike (9th)--19th century Dick Allen hanging in there.
(15) Jake Beckley (10th)--Would rather give his 6 points to a personal favorite, but can't ignore him.
Of the other strong returnees, Ryan and Bresnahan are the next two on; Welch (who reminds me of Jack Morris, btw) and Griffith (surprisingly low IP totals for time) are still in the discussion; and Waddell is a non-starter for me (his arm was not worth the trouble).
Taylor might make my ballot eventually; he's closer to Beckley than to Konetchy.
Out of 100 available 1-5 votes so far, 99 have gone to the same 5 candidates.
If the election were to end now, consensus scores would range from +15 to +29. They'll go down from that, but not that far down.
I know who's going to finish 6th. When have we ever been able to say that with any confidence?
1. Cobb, Ty – The best player so far.
2. Speaker, Tris – Third best player so far, IMO, behind Cobb and Wagner.
3. Collins, Eddie – The sixth best player so far, IMO, behind Cobb, Wagner, Speaker, Lajoie and Walter Johnson
4. Lloyd, Pop – The best Negro League player we’ve seen so far. I used the I9 numbers with a modest discount – since the numbers are uncertain and the competition less proven -- and he comes up shy of Collins. Without question a HoMer.
5. Williams, Smoky Joe – I’ve got him at about 400 WS, which is a great career number, but is spread out over 23 years, which gives him only a modest peak. Definitely the best pitcher on the ballot and definitely a HoMer.
6. Torriente, Cristobel -- I’ve got him around 380 WS (using Puckett as a defensive comp), putting him shy of Smoky Joe, which I think is about right. I think he belongs in the HoM.
7. Coveleski, Stan – Negatively affected by not pitching as long as some of the other pitchers under consideration, so his career numbers are not as impressive. Every other player who scored as high in my system has been elected.
8. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.
9. Groh, Heinie – Excellent fielder with a high extended peak. Would fare better on my ballot if he played a bit longer and had some more grey or black ink. But still damned good.
10. Monroe, Bill -- Alleged comp is Jimmy Collins. He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.
11. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM…but Groh is more deserving.
12. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. He hit about as well as McVey, with power, but with a smaller WS peak and fewer WS per 162 games. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.
13. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.
14. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.
15. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.
Required Disclosures:
Pike, Lip – Gut tells me he doesn’t quite belong. I’ve explained aplenty, so I won’t say more here. He’s #34 in my system, behind Urban Shocker and ahead of Hughie Jennings. Has a real chance of election, even though less than half of us think he’s top 10.
Van Haltren, George – Where’s the greatness? Never the best player in the league and never a genuine All-Star. Managed to crack the top 10 in AdjOPS+ only three times in his career, and two of those were at #10 (with the other at #7). Virtually no black ink; poor grey ink. He’s #32 in my system, tied with Urban Shocker. Has a real chance at election, even though only 44% of the electorate thinks he’s top 10.
Beckley, Jake – Usually on the ballot but drops off with the outstanding new class. All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in black ink and Keltner tests. He’s #19 in my system, behind Tommy Leach and ahead of Tony Mullane.
Jennings, Hughie – Career is just too short. Also, when I reduced the WARP fielding ratings to get away from the low replacement value used by BP, he plummeted. He’s #35 in my system, behind Lip Pike and ahead of Charlie Buffinton.
Waddell, Rube – Usually on the ballot. Comparable to Griffith, but win totals are far less impressive. Can't see putting him ahead of Griffith, unless you overvalue strikeouts. He’s #16 in my system, behind Roger Bresnahan and ahead of Bobby Veach.
Welch, Mickey – Just won’t go away. Fares poorly in WARP1 and Pennants Added (using WS). I can’t get past how unimpressive his ERA numbers are, especially since BP indicates he got good defensive support. He’s #22 in my system, behind George Burns and ahead of Spotswood Poles.
1. Ty Cobb (new) PHoM 1834
Even though one through 5 (and 6) all deserve top billing, Cobb still stands out.
2. Pop Lloyd (new) PHoM 1934
3. Tris Speaker (new)
4. Smokey Joe Williams (new)
5. Eddie Collins (new)
After Lloyd, the other three could shake out any way. I chose this way.
6. George Van Haltren (3,1,1) PHoM 1912
Missed his chance and a deserving HoMer will fade away.
7. Jake Beckley (4,5,3) PHoM 1913
It is amazing how top candidates become also-rans in a year like this.
8. Mickey Welch (5,4,4) PHoM 1929
9. Lip Pike (6,6,6)
10. Tommy Leach (7,8,9) PHoM 1921
11. Jimmy Ryan (8,7,8) PHoM 1914
All deserve spots eventually.
12. Cristobel Torriente (new)
Overshadowed but still great.
13. Hugh Duffy (9,11,11) PHoM 1930
14. Harry Hooper (10,10,5) PHoM 1931
15. Heinie Groh (x,x,x)
Batter than I thought, but not a HoMer yet.
Nothing wrong with Whitey, but the Phils are my current allegiance (combined with my governmental job). In the era in question, I was raised an Orioles fan. So, I'm more likely to be "boosting" the cases of everyone from Gus Triandos to Luis Aparicio to Ken Singleton before I start leading the Ashburn bandwagon.
Meanwhile, I think the clear concern for this election is Chris Cobb's obviously nepotistic ballot.
As of right now, there are over twenty players who were on last "year's" ballot who have not popped up yet on this one.
Bill James has already named Andruw Jones, on a new authors panel preliminary to SABR33 last year. (James and the new BJHBA were overshadowed by Michael Lewis and Moneyball.)
The conventional wisdom for the top 5 newbies is (I think) to rank them Cobb-Speaker-Collins-Lloyd-Williams.
There isn't any conventional wisdom yet, and it doesn't appear that a convention will be newly formed here.
Ed Williamson (10). Those who take Babe Ruth and John McGraw's comments re. Pop Lloyd at face value, take another look at Big Ed! I will be comparing Hughie, Cupid and Ed soon in an effort to settle the eternal question, who should the next 19th century IF in the HoM be? (None of the above is not a choice!) PHoM 1924.
Williamson is one of several 19Cers sometimes called the best of all time while active. His ability to play exceptionally well at short and third was much admired. So was the pop in his bat.
I know who's going to finish 6th. When have we ever been able to say that with any confidence?
Yes, but there's a very close three-way race for second, so it's not all cut-and-dried quite yet.
1. Ty Cobb (x): As the most dominant player of his time, Cobb merits the first slot on this loaded ballot.
2. Tris Speaker (x): Speaker’s big peak years give him the edge on Williams and Collins.
3. Eddie Collins (x)
4. Smokey Joe Williams (x): I have Collins and Williams in a dead heat, but because Collins’s career is more clearly documented and less reliant on guesswork on my end, I give him the slightest edge. Another argument for Collins over Williams might be that he is very clearly one of the top three persons at his position, all-time, and, in my opinion, the best 2B we’ve seen, whereas Williams isn’t the best P we’ve seen and probably isn’t one of the best three at his position because Johnson, Young, Paige, Grove, and Clemens (and maybe Seaver and Spahn?) probably all have better arguments. Williams, of course, has more competition at his position, so maybe that’s an unfair way to look at it, but when you’re looking for tie-breakers in a closely-bundled ballot….
5. John Henry Lloyd (x): I don’t believe he was as good as Wagner, in particular because he lacks Hans’s giant peak. In a way you could make the argument that Wagner is to A-Rod as Lloyd is to Ripken. But el Cuchara is shortstop numero uno in the teens. He’s only a hair behind Williams and Collins, and only because his peak is a shade lower than theirs. He played forever, and he was highly effective for most of that time. On virtually any other ballot, he’s in an elect-me slot.
6. Cristobal Torriente (x): Although an obvious number six on this ballot, that’s kind of like saying that, to continue on an earlier theme, that Beatle George was the third most talented guy in the group. Torriente was a stud with a nice high peak, a reasonably long career full of productive seasons, and played an up-the-middle position to boot. To my mind he’s very clearly better than anyone in the OF glut, unless you discount his league environment by approximately 15% or more. That Torriente doesn’t have a plaque in C-town is truly bogus.
7. George Van Haltren (3, pHOM 1932): Nice, long career helped him generate plenty of value, but flat peak keeps him out of the top two spots. That said, he’s not as flat in peak as the likes of Beckley.
8. Spotswood Poles (4): Poles seems like another member of the Van Ryanffy family, but I prefer him to all but GVH in the group. I do give him credit for missing the 1918 season.
9. Cupid Childs (5): Best second baseman of 1890s, peak not as high as Jennings, but he had a career, not just a peak like Hughie.
10. Hughie Jennings (6): His huge peak, the best among the returning position players, goes a long way to establishing value, and winning five pennants. But being awesome for five years doesn’t mean as much when coupled to a near total lack of surrounding value.
11. Bobby Veach (7): Nice peak/prime player, but now that his NB contemporaries have come due, he’ll quickly start sliding downward. As someone said earlier, being second-tier in a league with Cobb, Crawford, Speaker, Ruth, Collins, ain’t something to sneeze at.
12. Heinie Groh (8): His five year peak is sweet, but it’s not as nearly as high as Jennings’s. I also found that his prime/extended prime didn’t offer as much as Veach’s did. Groh did play a more demanding defensive position when it was even more demanding than today, and from all accounts seems to be a brilliant defender, so it’s possible that I’m underrating him a bit, which means it’s possible he could move northward on my ballot as we compare him against future third base eligibles.
13. Stan Covaleski (x): I’m freeloading off the great work of everyone on the ballot discussion thread. Originally I had Stan off the ballot entirely in the Waddell area of my consideration set, but the case made for him elevated him enough above his predecessors that he’s jumped on board the ballot.
14. Bill Monroe (9): Working with the translations, he comes out as having the best career value among eligible non-Collins second basemen, though less peak/prime value than Childs. I continue to waiver over Monroe, because of the sketchy information available about his career. Sigh.
15. Jimmy Ryan (10): I prefer GVH, SP, and BV. Thus begins Ryan’s probable ultimate slide off my ballot. Perhaps he’ll see the light of day again around 1960 or 1990.
(to be continued)
Sliding off my ballot in deference to new candidates.
Jose Mendez (11): I love the big peak, it gives his profile enough oomph to outrank Griffith when combined with some good shoulder years that militate against the dead-arm period.
Clark Griffith (12): The sly old Fox ends up ahead of other peak/prime guys without heavy career value. Griffith benefits, in my view, from better strength of competition than his predecessors like Jim McCormick, but also surpasses successors like Waddell when career, peak, and prime are all taken into consideration.
Duffy (13): Duffy concentrates a little more of his value into a couple peak years than the other members of his “family” but didn’t play quite as long. The peaks just weren’t high enough, however, to rise above the others.
Jack Fournier (14): Initially I had Fournier off the ballot, but when I credited him for missing his peak seasons due to what appears to be either organizational indifference or organizational incompetence it just nudged him on. That said, it’s not enough for him to zoom up the ranks, just enough to get onto the bottom of the ballot.
Pete Browning (15): Flatter career trend line than Jennings, with slightly more career value. But although he was clearly a great hitter, I’ve come down on the side that says the 1880s were an easier time to dominate than subsequent decades/generations. As such, he continues to slide down my ballot and will, undoubtedly slide off next year and perhaps permanently if better borderline candidates emerge.
Returning top-tens I didn’t vote for:
Lip Pike: Third best player of the 1860s–70s is, to my mind, a persuasive argument for Lipman. On the other hand, I’m not willing to put him anywhere near an elect-me spot without Pearce’s combination of performance AND visionary status. New candidates push him off.
Jake Beckley: Becks Lite’s career length and totals ARE impressive, but the total lack of peak makes him seem like a background contributor, not a HOMer.
Rube Waddell (x): I see three pitching a clusters that looks like this:
Willis
Cooper
Welch
Mullane
Waddell
Cicotte
McCormick
Shocker
Shawkey
Adams
Vaughn
The first group floats in the ether just off my ballot, while the second group comes in around ten places behind the first, and finally, the third another ten or fifteen behind the second. I like Covaleski and Griffith better than any of these fellows.
2)Speaker--#11 alltime on my list.
3)Collins--#13 alltime.
4)Lloyd--No disrespect to Lloyd, just unbelievable competition on this ballot.
5)Smokey Joe Williams--Hard to believe I have him at #5.
6) Torriente --Big gap between Williams and Torriente, but still very well qualified.
7)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
8)Groh--I guess where you put him depends on how much you like third basemen. Compares pretty well with Collins, only Baker is clearly better among 3B.
9)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production.
10)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is