As requested by Dr. Chaleeko . . .

Eligible when?

1965 (November 28)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
323 97.2 1938 Enos Slaughter-RF (2002)
296 77.6 1939 Mickey Vernon-1B (living)
268 77.3 1942 Larry Doby-CF (2003)
204 85.5 1942 Murray Dickson-P (1989)
220 68.9 1944 Andy Pafko-CF/RF (living)
217 68.7 1946 Carl Furillo-RF (1989)
233 62.1 1946 Del Ennis-LF (1996)
174 52.3 1945 Hank Sauer-LF (2001)
175 50.2 1950 Bobby Avila-2B (2004)
144 41.2 1948 Granny Hamner-SS/2B (1993)
132 40.4 1950 Chico Carrasquel-SS (living)
125 29.8 1949 Gus Zernial-LF (living)
101 38.8 1947 Jim Hearn-P (1998)
109 35.4 1951 Solly Hemus-SS (living)
104 35.9 1949 Stan Lopata-C (living)
105 35.3 1948 Carl Erskine-P (living)
095 37.0 1948 Bob Porterfield-P (1980)
097 36.0 1949 Alex Kellner-P (1996)
HF% Career Name-pos (born) BJ – MVP - All-Star
HF 42-59 Larry Doby-OF/2B (1923) – 1 – 2*
00% 40-59 Claude Johnson-P (1922) – 0 – 1*

And at that, the MVP vote repsesnts a consolidation of the Cleveland pitcher vote in Lemon's favor, when it's not so obvious that he's any more deserving than Garcia or Wynn.

The key factual question about Avila: what does his Mexican League playing record look like?

The philosphical question: what should we make of such a Mexican League record? Was he someone for whom there existed significant practical barriers beyond his control keeping him out of playing at the highest level of competition?

Avila's Mexican record is very good, and I ran MLEs for him based on a conversion factor of .87 (except for 46-47 where I upped it to .90). I'll post his actual numbers after this post.

The 1949 season in the MLEs below needs a little explanation. In 1949, Avila was mostly a pinch runner, end of the bench guy who was just breaking into the majors. Obviously if I'm projecting him to start his career much earlier this isn't going to be true anymore. So I did the usual averaging of surrounding seasons to build a 1949 that would be more consistent with a typical career path.

Finally, his FWS are based on his career FWS rates.


YEAR LG AGE PO AVG OBP SLG G PA AB H TB BB ops+ sfws
----------------------------------------------------------------------
1944 NL 20 2b .276 .353 .348 154 612 547 151 190 65 98 18.5
1945 NL 21 2b .263 .337 .312 114 450 404 106 126 46 81 11.1
1946 NL 22 2b .311 .392 .408 146 589 520 162 212 70 127 24.5
1947 NL 23 2b .302 .382 .403 122 491 435 131 175 56 109 19.6
1948 NL 24 2b .205 .270 .222 59 227 208 43 46 18 34 2.3
1949 AL 25 2b .300 .390 .404 140 563 497 151 201 66 109 22.6
1950 AL 26 2b .299 .387 .383 80 230 201 60 77 29 98 7.0
1951 AL 27 2b .304 .374 .410 141 602 542 165 222 60 112 24.0
1952 AL 28 2b .300 .370 .415 150 664 597 179 248 67 118 24.0
1953 AL 29 2b .286 .353 .379 141 617 559 160 212 58 98 22.0
1954 AL 30 2b .341 .404 .477 143 614 555 189 265 59 142 34.0
1955 AL 31 2b .272 .368 .400 141 619 537 146 215 82 107 20.0
1956 AL 32 2b .224 .317 .318 138 583 513 115 163 70 69 14.0
1957 AL 33 2b .268 .334 .289 129 509 463 124 134 46 73 13.0
1958 AL 34 2b .253 .349 .365 113 430 375 95 137 55 98 12.0
1959 2lg 35 2b .227 .314 .322 93 298 264 60 85 34 74 5.0
======================================================================
.282 .360 .375 2004 8097 7217 2037 2709 881 101 273.6



</pre>
If you use 162adjWS, his career total is 287.

Avila was definitely on the wrong side of the color line prior to 1947, and he was caught in a bit of a logjam in the Indians organization after they signed him and a boatload of other stars of color in 1947-48.

He was a Mexican League batting champion with .346 in 1947 (age 23), and hit .333 with 125 runs scored in the Mexican League in 1960 (age 36). See his bio page at the Mexican Salón de la Fama

Here are Avila's non-MLB stats (excluding his 1960 MxL season). The TMG for 1943-1945 in the MxL are estimates. Avila played in more games than are listed in the standings or among pitchers decisions.


MEXICO
YEAR LG TM AGE PO TMG G AB H TB 2B 3B HR SB BB K AVG SLG BB/H LG AVG LG SLG LG BB/H
1943 MX PUE 19 2B 88 88 301 69 83 3 4 1 8 41 31 .229 .276 .594 .273 .367 .402
1944 MX PUE 20 2B 90 90 371 124 175 17 14 2 19 53 16 .334 .472 .427 .284 .387 .464
1945 MX PUE 21 2B 92 92 354 124 170 17 10 3 25 63 20 .350 .480 .508 .291 .405 .445
1946 MX PUE 22 2B 98 93 384 138 188 27 7 3 6 38 12 .359 .490 .275 .281 .381 .422
1947 MX PUE 23 2B 119 113 428 148 198 25 11 1 18 74 20 .346 .463 .500 .278 .366 .436

INTERNATIONAL LEAGUE
1948 IL BAL 24 2B 147 56 182 40 49 9 0 0 6 23 11 .220 .269 .575 .260 .401 .495

CUBAN WINTER LEAGUE
1945 cwl alm 21 2b 60 29 102 22 25 3 0 0 2 .216 .245 .263 .335
1946 cwl mar 22 2b 66 63 223 72 93 13 4 0 9 .323 .417 .250 .330
1947 pfl cub 23 2b 91 58 207 63 73 4 3 0 17 .304 .353 .266 .349
</PRE>

Here's an important (I think) question. Is the conversion rate for the MxL just way too darn high?

I mean, in 1948 Bobby Avila goes into the "white" or "mainstream" baseball world and hits .220 in a MiL. In 1949 he breaks into the majors but sits on the bench. Maybe he coulda done more if he'd had the chance, but hey, he hit .220 the year before....

It just seems weird to me that he earns 73-74 WS in 1944-47 and then in 1948-49-50 he suddenly is not good enough to contribute to a ML team. Now, in the real world, this happens to guys all the time. They get hurt, they go into a slump, whatever. But in this case we know that the underlying reality is he made a very very significant change in the environment in which he played and that is why we see this huge slump in 1948 and 1950 (MLESs) and 1949, too (real world).

If he was not good enough to contribute to a ML team in 1948-49-50, it just begs the question of whether he could really have contributed before that.

I wonder what the story of Avila's 1948 season is. He was a terrible hitter that year and didn't play much, but the Indians decided to bring him up to the majors and have him on the bench in 1949 rather than leave him to season a year longer in the minor leagues. Was he hurt in 1948? Having a difficult transition to the U.S.?

I don't remember who addressed this in a previous discussion, but Avila's horrific 1948 has mostly to do with sustaining some kind of injury early in the season. In 1949, he was indeed part of a logjam. I can't remember what thread it was where someone posted this information, but maybe they would be kind enough to repost or point us toward that thread?

So the MxL translations could be too high, but I don't think that's the case. I've lowered them to .87 from previous levels, but I think in this instance the culprit is the backstory.

But in this case we know that the underlying reality is he made a very very significant change in the environment in which he played and that is why we see this huge slump in 1948 and 1950 (MLESs) and 1949, too (real world).

That's partly why I asked the question about 1948.

For NeL players, the transition from NeL to AAA was not all that difficult, but the transition to the majors was, esp. if they went directly from the NeL. It looks like in Avila's case, the transition from the MxL to the IL was difficult (though we don't know how much injury or cultural factors contributed), so this suggests that we are correct to treat the MxL as lower in quality than both the NeL and the top minors at this time. Is it low enough? We haven't done as rigorous a study of MxL playing levels as we have of NeL ones, but I think Avila's data is not out of line with what we would expect.

All the transitional data that we see suggests that no matter how good a player is, making a transition to a different playing context, especially when it is accompanied by an increase in the level of competition, will temporarily tank a player's numbers. The transition period is always weak. True for Irvin, true for Doby, true for Willard Brown, true for Luke Easter, true for Bobby Avila. After a big initial drop off and then one to two full years of play, if given the opportunity and not brought down by injuries, the players tend to achieve the level of play their translated stats indicated that they would.

The question is, could they have made the transition successfully at an earlier age? For a player like Irvin, the answer is obviously yes. For Avila, that's less clear, but consider that Boudreau, Doerr, Gordon, Pesky, Reese, Rizzuto, and Stephens all were average-to-above average major league regulars by age 23, and several had their first great year at age 22. Avila's quality of play at the major-league level looks comparable to this group, though towards the back end, but his career starts later. If the translations show that he would have been an average-to-above average player at age 22, I think that's plausible. Had he followed a normal career path, his ws progression would probably have been more like this:

1944 2
1945 7
1946 18
1947 11
1948 25
1949 20
1950 23

And his development would seem quite normal.

If he was injured in 1948, then his development, as presented by our translations, fits even more neatly with what we would expect.

Your points are well taken, and if there was an injury, then....

Overall, I would probably agree that he was a +/-250-270 WS player with a 120 5 year peak. A HoVG player, not quite ballot-worthy, below Gordon, Doerr and Doyle but not by a lot.

Sunnyday,

I concur with post #12. By the MLEs only, I've got Avila a pinch ahead of Evers and Lazzeri, and, ironically, smidge behind Gordon.

I meant post 13. Though I also agree with post 12.

I thought I had posted about Avila somewhere, but can't find it...

In 1946, Avila led the Mexican League with a .367 average for Pueblo.

In the 46/47 Cuban Winter League, Avila hit .323 for Marianno and lost the batting title on the last day of the season to Lou Klein.

In 1947 for Pueblo, Avila led the Mexican League again with a .346 average.

In 47/48 Cuban Winter League, Avila was in the top 5 in batting at last report I can find.

In the spring of 1948, Avila joined Cleveland for spring training, then was assigned to Baltimore of the IL.

From June 9, 1948 Sporting News:

"Beto Avila, flashy Mexican second baseman of the Orioles, was discovered to have an acute case of hernia and advised to undergo an immediate operation....Avila planned to return to Mexico for the surgery, which will sideline him for four to six weeks.

The Mexican, who got off to a slow start...had complained of feeling tired and weak recently. He was second in the league....in stolen bases..."

Avila returned to the Orioles at the very end of July, 1948. Avila ended up hitting only .220 in 182 AB's.

In 1949, Avila was designated as one of 16 bonus players that had to remain all year on the major league roster, so Avila mostly pinch ran all season.

Avila's 1948 Fielding stats - 2B:

G-50
PO-125
A-137
E-9
DP-27
PCT-.967

Didn't he prefer to go by Roberto, rather than Bobby?

KJOK, you did post it somewhere else, I just couldn't remember where or find it when I used the search function. Thanks for reposting.

Didn't he prefer to go by Roberto, rather than Bobby?

He seemed to be referred to as "Beto" a lot, but not sure if he preferred that name or not...

In the Mexican Encyclopedia he is refered to as Beto.

bump

From the Sam Rice thread where everyone will be sure not to find it.

Comps

Everybody here played 154 games so I haven't adjusted that. I've only adjusted for games lost to WWI and WWII, and of course Avila's totals are MLE adjusted.

Avila 274 CWS 34-24-24 124 21.8

Doerr 308* 27-27-25 131 22.6
Gordon 293* 31-27*-27* 134 21.1

Evers 268 28-27-27 117 24.3

Lazzeri 252 30-27-24 115 23.5
Myer 258 33-24-23 115 21.7

Doerr and Gordon were better, especially after you adjust for their missed WWII years, though you could argue that Avila was better than Doerr at his peak (at least for one year, a la Rizzuto) and you could note that Avila has a better rate than Gordon.

Evers is closer overall, but the rate is the only place where he is better.

Avila looks pretty clearly like a better player than Lazzeri or Buddy Myer, not that either is a ringing endorsement for HoM-worthiness.

Avila 274 CWS 34-24-24 124 21.8
Rizzuto 297* 35-26-25 124 22.5

Offensive WS: Avila 192 Rizzuto 172

Probably not a HoMer. Avila has never been on my ballot. But I could probably argue that he is right there among eligible 2B's today. Personally I prefer Doyle and I like Dunlap and Monroe. But there's not another 20C MLer who is clearly better. Just a bunch of guys who are close and all of whom could be argued more on philosophical than on empirical grounds.
38. Eric Chalek (Dr. Chaleeko) Posted: August 31, 2007 at 09:38 PM (#2507038)
I have run Avila through the new MLE routine and placing him in the AL this time, not the NL. It changes his WS a little bit:

YEAR WS BWS/FWS OPS+ AVG/OBP/SLG MLEPA
---------------------------------------
1944 19 13.4/7.3 88 257/314/345 620
1945 19 14.5/7.2 91 246/321/338 607
1946 20 14.6/6.9 90 267/318/365 587
1947 21 16.2/7.0 94 267/341/358 589
1948 6 2.6/2.8 60 241/310/292 241


Compare those rates to his MLB rates: .281/.359/.388 104 OPS+ in 5343 PA. Seems pretty reasonable to me since Avila debuted at 25 in MLB, so it makes sense that his offensive numbers would be lower than his MLB stats which are skewed toward his peak/prime years. In fact these rates look a lot like his age 33 and 34 years in 1957 and 1958 bit with better durability.

Taking those together with his MLb WS you get

1944 19
1945 19
1946 20
1947 21
1948 6
1949 23*
1950 7
1951 24
1952 24
1953 22
1954 34
1955 20
1956 14
1957 13
1958 12
1959 5
--------
tot 283
*pickup of previous MLEs

So he picks up a little bit in my new MLE routine, primarily in 1945. The primary reason why is that I did not use the CWL data in the MLEs: Avila played every MxL game but only 29 of 60 CWL games, the latter reducing his PAs in my previous MLEs but not being an issue in