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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best
Monday, March 24, 2008
Election Results: Most Impressive from Group 4? Rose, Johnson and Barnes!
All-time hit leader Pete Rose was easily judged as the cream of the crop among this group with a sterling 97% of all possible points.
Legendary Negro League shortstop Home Run Johnson earned an impressive 80%, while National Association star Ross Barnes had 78%.
RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Pete Rose 222 19 16 2 1 2 n/e Home Run Johnson 183 19 1 6 3 7 1 1 3 n/e Ross Barnes 178 19 3 9 3 2 1 1 4 n/e Joe Jackson 160 19 2 5 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 5 n/e Cal McVey 140 19 1 3 3 2 3 5 1 1 6 n/e John Beckwith 136 19 2 1 2 4 1 5 1 3 7 n/e Dickie Pearce 108 19 1 3 7 2 2 2 2 8 n/e Dobie Moore 84 19 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 9 n/e Quincey Trouppe 76 19 2 2 2 1 3 2 4 3 10 n/e Lip Pike 75 19 1 2 3 4 5 3 1 11 n/e Dick Lundy 72 19 1 1 7 2 3 2 3 12 n/e Alejandro Oms 48 19 1 2 2 2 6 6 Ballots Cast: 19
Thanks to OCF and Ron Wargo for all of their help with the tally!
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: March 24, 2008 at 07:28 PM | 21 comment(s)
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Pct of possible pts, all group elections (which group, rank among group):
Rose...............97.4 (IV, 1st)
Dahlen............95.0 (III, 1st)
DeaWhite........94.0 (III, 2nd)
Blyleven......... 93.9 (I, 1st)
Raines............92.9 (I, 2nd)
Grich..............90.2 (II, 1st)
PHines...........89.2 (III, 3rd)
Santo.............88.1 (II, 2nd)
HRJohnson....80.3(IV, 2nd)
McGwire.........79.0 (I, 3rd)
RBarnes.........78.1 (IV, 3rd)
DiAllen............77.8 (II, 3rd)
TSimmons......75.6 (II, 4th)
Glasscock......75.2 (III, 4th)
Trammell........74.7 (I, 4th)
JJackson.......70.2 (IV, 4th)
Gore...............68.5 (III, 5th)
Start...............61.9 (III, 6th)
McVey...........61.4 (IV, 5th)
ESutton..........60.9 (III, 7th)
Whitaker.........60.9 (I, 5th)
Beckwith.......59.6 (IV, 6th)
WClark...........55.3 (I, 6th)
Groh...............54.9 (III, 8th)
DarEvans........54.2 (II, 5th)
Torre...............50.8 (II, 6th)
HRichardson....50.5 (III, 9th)
DPearce..........47.4 (IV, 7th)
BCaruthers.......46.4 (III, 10th)
CBennett..........46.2 (III, 11th)
SMagee...........44.7 (III, 12th)
Hack...............44.3 (III, 13th)
Minoso............44.2 (II, 7th)
JGordon...........42.7 (III, 14th)
Freehan...........40.8 (II, 8th)
KHernandez.....40.7 (I, 7th)
DwiEvans.........39.4 (I, 8th)
Sheckard.........39.3 (III, 15th)
CKeller.............37.9 (III, 16th)
BPierce............36.9 (II, 9th)
Moore.............36.8 (IV, 8th)
HStovey...........34.0 (III, 17th)
Stieb................33.3 (I, 9th)
Trouppe..........33.3 (IV, 9th)
JWynn.............33.1 (II, 10th)
Saberhagen......33.1 (I, 10th)
Pike................33.8 (IV, 10th)
Childs..............32.7 (III, 18th)
WFerrell..........32.2 (III, 19th)
Lundy..............31.6 (IV, 11th)
Nettles.............31.4 (II, 11th)
KBoyer............26.9 (II, 12th)
Dawson...........26.3 (I, 11th)
ChaJones........26.1 (III, 20th)
Browning..........23.0 (III, 21st)
Randolph.........21.5 (I, 12th)
Oms................21.1 (IV, 12th)
Rob Wood: 73
Esteban Rivera: 73
jimd: 72
TomH: 72
John Murphy: 70
Rick A: 70
Howie Menckel: 70
OCF: 67
ronw: 67
Devin McCullen: 66 (Median. Mean was 63.)
andrew siegel: 65
Rusty Priske: 63
Tiboreau: 63
sunnyday2: 62
Chris Cobb: 60
Joe Dimino: 57
Sean Gilman: 53
DL from MN: 42
karlmagnus: 38
Here are the standard deviations of placement by candidate; this would be expected to be lowest at the the top and bottom and highest in the middle. Higher standard deviation means more disagreement about that particular candidate.
Rose: 0.921
Johnson: 1.692
Barnes: 1.459
Jackson: 3.066
McVey: 2.299
Beckwith: 2.159
Pearce: 2.341
Moore: 2.740
Trouppe:2.340
Pike: 1.820
Lundy: 1.734
Oms: 1.534
19 PR GJ RB JJ CM JB DP DM QT LP DL AOPR -- 18 18 17 18 19 18 19 19 19 19 19 203
GJ 01 -- 11 12 14 15 18 19 18 19 19 18 164
RB 01 08 -- 10 17 14 18 17 18 19 18 19 159
JJ 02 07 09 -- 12 13 14 16 17 16 17 18 141
CM 01 05 02 07 -- 10 16 14 15 16 17 18 121
JB 00 04 05 06 09 -- 11 15 17 15 17 18 117
DP 01 01 01 05 03 08 -- 11 14 15 14 16 089
DM 00 00 02 03 05 04 08 -- 09 12 10 12 065
QT 00 01 01 02 04 02 05 10 -- 08 09 15 057
LP 00 00 00 03 03 04 04 07 11 -- 10 14 056
DL 00 00 01 02 02 02 05 09 10 09 -- 13 053
AO 00 01 00 01 01 01 03 07 04 05 06 -- 029
Example: PR (Rose) defeats GJ (Johnson) 18-1.
Note: Row total + 1 pt/ballot (19) equals election total.
Define "close" to be [ballots/2 + 1 binomial standard deviation]
In this case that is 10-9, 11-8, which also happens to be all HTH battles less than 60%.
These are:
10-9: Barnes-Jackson, McVey-Beckwith, Trouppe-Moore!, Moore-Lundy, Lundy-Trouppe!, Pike-Lundy
11-8: Johnson-Barnes, Beckwith-Pearce, Pearce-Moore, Pike-Trouppe!
The ! point indicates a "backwards" result, where the HTH victory goes against the cumulative standings. There are three of those, all involving Trouppe. There are 2 triangles, where X (Pike/Lundy) upsets Trouppe who upsets Moore, who defeats X (Pike/Lundy).
The only non-adjacent (with respect to the final standings) matchups involve Lundy. The group Moore-Trouppe-Pike-Lundy form nearly a complete clique (only Moore-Pike is missing), showing that these 4 are pretty close in our collective ranking.
That's an odd result.
What is the relation that makes a pair present or missing?
A pair is present if the HTH election was "close", "close" defined as above.
All combinations of those 4 (Moore-Trouppe-Pike-Lundy) were "close" elections, except Moore-Pike, which at 12-7 was almost "close".
That's an odd result.
Our HTH voting preferences are not always transitive.
Check out: 12-7 Moore-Pike, 11-8 Pike-Trouppe!, 10-9 Trouppe-Moore!
or in Group 1:
25-8 Hernandez-Stieb, 17-16 Stieb-Evans!, 18-15 Evans-Hernandez!
What are the most striking results from a baseball perspective?
1. Group 4. This is a very strong showing by Grant Johnson. With the skimpiest playing record he is the only blackball player among the leaders. Supposing that Pete Rose is a commonly ranked number one overall and that some people rank him "off the map", Johnson may be number two in some opinions and he must be a contender for high overall rank.
2. Group 2. Bobby Grich beats Ron Santo soundly. Among those who follow Hall of Fame membership avidly and participate in the debate elsewhere, Santo is probably the most commonly named eligible major league omission (that is, beside Pete Rose, Joe Jackson, perhaps Buck O'Neill). So Grich is news.
3. Group 2. Bill Freehan ranks comfortably eighth, ahead of Pierce, Wynn, Nettles, and Boyer. That is not the most visible quartet in the Foyer but all of them are mentioned in Hall of Fame debate a lot more than Freehan. Wynn and Boyer have been sabrmetric favorites, or specifically favorites of readers of Bill James. In a sense, the easy election and middling standing of Bill Freehan is probably the biggest surprise to me.
--biggest surprise in a sense. Some of the blackball players were new to me and one of them was shut out in his debut (zero votes or Alejandro Oms). On the other hand Hall of Fame members Ran Dandridge, Judy Johnson, and Leon Day finished with zero votes(?). I didn't have the background to anticipate any of that, so probably not the background to call it a surprise.
4. Dickey Pearce. If not Freehan then Pearce is the biggest surprise, although his showing in Group 4 was no surprise this fortnight.
I've heard mentions of treating these elections as if they were primaries, or straw ballots for organizing our thoughts.
Do people really want to put together a combined 57 name ballot for all 4 groups?
(Do the talliers want to tally it?)
Or if our goal is to determine the best HOMers missing from the HOF, is it sufficient to now integrate the top finishers from each election?
I think a usual criterion for inclusion into the final ballot might be a 2/3rds (or better) finish in Howie's list. It includes the top 4 from each group. The ballot might look like:
Pct of possible pts, all group elections (which group, rank among group):
Rose...............97.4 (IV, 1st)
Dahlen............95.0 (III, 1st)
DeaWhite........94.0 (III, 2nd)
Blyleven......... 93.9 (I, 1st)
Raines............92.9 (I, 2nd)
Grich..............90.2 (II, 1st)
PHines...........89.2 (III, 3rd)
Santo.............88.1 (II, 2nd)
HRJohnson....80.3(IV, 2nd)
McGwire.........79.0 (I, 3rd)
RBarnes.........78.1 (IV, 3rd)
DiAllen............77.8 (II, 3rd)
TSimmons......75.6 (II, 4th)
Glasscock......75.2 (III, 4th)
Trammell........74.7 (I, 4th)
JJackson.......70.2 (IV, 4th)
Gore...............68.5 (III, 5th)
17 names which is a good sized ballot for our contemplation.
(the ballot counter can handle it, which is also a plus).
Other thoughts about this, or another answer to "What next?"
I understand the math behind those, but they are results that you'd almost have to try to get.
To have two groups like that is highly unusual, especially with the gap in the Hernandez-Stieb pairing.
No on both counts, Jim.
Frankie Crosetti
You implying that Crosetti was no gentleman?
:-)
Of course, some sponsorial statements are odd in utterly different ways.
Many of Hall of Merit members are available (no sponsor) for only $10.
No need to prevent someone from taking a 28th- or 38th-ranked guy in his top 15, I don't believe.
It's just that the previous results can make the process more manageable for those ongoing voters who couldn't handle the size of a group or its antiquity.
By all means look at all 57 closely, if possible.
If not, at least be sure to fully consider the top 15 or so, and as many others as you can.
In some ways, this should be easier than a typical 'year' ballot, granting that it's tough when so many good ones are on at once. But it's a smaller universe of 57 overall.
By all means look at all 57 closely, if possible.
Manageable unless you find in your heart one of those triangles and you cannot resolve it.
Joe Gordon > Charlie Keller
Charlier Keller > Ross Barnes
Ross Barnes > Joe Gordon
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