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Using the I9 numbers with average rates of RBI (based on RBI per Hit) and Runs (based on Runs per PA) for hitters in the NL and AL between 1914 and 1924, here are the Bill James Sim Scores for Shively, with the positional adjustment:
WOLF, CHICKEN (893)
WALKER, CURT (892)
STAHL, CHICK (888)
JOHNSON, LANCE (887)
REYNOLDS, CARL (882)
STRUNK, AMOS (877)
COOLEY, DUFF (876)
YOUNGS, ROSS* (870)
MANN, LES (869)
FINNEY, LOU (869)
Batting WS = ((LWTS Runs/10) + (Outs/100))*3
As David Foss pointed out, you may want to use something other than 10 as the divisor, but I've left it at 10 b/c that's what I used for Hill before David posted his comment -- you can apply your own discount, as I do. If you have another factor you'd like to use, let me know and I can plug that in pretty quickly. The Tango formula is a rough measure, of course, and it seems to come out mostly on the high side.
So here are Shively’s batting WS using (1) TangoTiger's converter, (2) the Integrated 9s MLEs and (3) Pete Palmer's LWTS. They are raw (no adjustments for season-length, park factors, league quality, uncertainty of data, etc.):
1914.....13.9
1915.....20.0
1916.....19.6
1917.....16.6
1918.....14.2
1919.....8.0
1920.....9.4
1921.....16.2
1922.....7.8
1923.....8.3
1924.....4.8
Total....137.8
Note that Riley says his career began in 1910, but the I9s use 1914 as the starting point because it looks like his pre-1914 play was not considered “major league.”
For defense: based on the Integrated 9s MLEs, Shively had 5,556 plate appearances. Assuming approximately 4.1 PAs per game, that gives Shively about 1,355 games played. Riley lists him simply as “of” and says he was “a solid defensive outfielder.” Based on that, I assumed about a B or B- under the WS system, and based on the averages for outfielders on page 622 of the WS book (average = 2.95/1000 innings), I gave him 3.15. That’s similar to a guy like Daryl Hamilton defensively. At about 8.75 innings per game played, he would have approximately 11,857 innings in the outfield.
So if you were to give Shively 3.15 WS/1000, you'd get another 37.3 fielding WS to add to his hitting totals, which would put him at about 175.1 WS for career.
All caveats apply. Make adjustments as appropriate for your systems. Or ignore them altogether.
For what it's worth, Holway treats his team -- the West Baden Sprudels, under the management of C. I. Taylor -- as "major league."
i9s is also not entirely consistent in their designation of the Sprudels. Ben Taylor is listed as playing for them in 1910 and gets "major league credit." He split time between them and other teams in 1911-1913, as did his brother Candy Jim.
Holway doesn't list Shively on the team in 1910, and he has no data for him for 1911, but he gives data for him in 1912-13, so I think he ought to be given MLE credit for those two seasons.
For defense: . . . Riley lists him simply as “of” and says he was “a solid defensive outfielder.” Based on that, I assumed about a B or B- under the WS system, and based on the averages for outfielders on page 622 of the WS book (average = 2.95/1000 innings), I gave him 3.15.
This seems reasonable to me. Holway's rosters indicate that Shively was typically a left fielder. He was very fast, and Riley indicates that he had very good range but says nothing about his arm, so it seems like a slightly above average rating is quite appropriate.
With two more decent seasons at the beginning of his career, I'd put him at about 200-205 cws, prior to modifications.
NNL associate Bacharach Giants
G-42 (team 52)
AB-166
H-48
D-3
T-1
HR-1
R-41
W-19
HP-3
SH-6
SB-7
AVE-.289 (NeL .263)
OBA-.372 (NeL .324)
SLG-.337 (NeL .361)
I also think Shively is underrated, based on some research I've done on the 1910s. He was a good OBP guy, walking a fair amount for a Negro Leaguer.
G-44 (Team-46)
AB-163 (Team-151)
H-61 (Lead team, Team Ave-44)
2B-9 (Lead team, Team Ave-4)
3B-3 (Tm-3)
HR-0 (Tm-0)
Sac-17 (Tm-11)
Ave-.374 (Tm-.291)
Slg-.466 (Tm-.373)
Per:
Paul Debono
McFarland Publishing Inc.
THE INDIANAPOLIS ABCS HISTORY OF A PREMIER TEAM IN THE NEGRO LEAGUES
We may be missing the boat on Shively - he was the star hitter for the 1916 ABC's.
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